Harper and Machado Waiting it Out

Harper (left) and Machado are holding out for record paydays (12Up)

For nearly two decades, Alex Rodriguez has held the record for the largest free-agent contract in American professional sports. On December 11, 2000, Rodriguez signed a 10-year, $252 million deal with the Texas Rangers, doubling the contract of the highest paid professional athlete at the time --Kevin Garnett of the NBA's Minnesota Timberwolves. Seven years later, Rodriguez opted out of that deal to sign an even bigger one with the New York Yankees worth $275 million over 10 years, with the potential to earn an additional $30 million in incentives for reaching certain home run milestones (which later became controversial following his PED admissions).

Records are made to be broken, but so far neither deal has been surpassed by a free agent* in any sport. The closest anyone's gotten were Albert Pujols and Robinson Cano, who both signed 10-year, $240 million deals in 2011 and 2013, respectively. That's going to change this winter, however; it's only a matter of when.

[*Giancarlo Stanton (13 years/$325 million) and Miguel Cabrera (10 years/$292 million) both later eclipsed Rodriguez via contract extensions, not as free agents. The highest paid athlete is boxer Canelo Alvarez, who's currently on an 11-fight, $365 million deal.] 

Bryce Harper and his agent, Scott Boras (the same agent who negotiated Rodriguez's first megadeal), have had their sights set on the record since Harper was smashing 500-foot homers and making magazine covers as a teenager. He debuted with the Washington Nationals at 19 in 2012, making his first All-Star team en route to winning NL Rookie of the Year honors. He was an All-Star again in 2013 before putting together one of the greatest offensive seasons ever in 2015, when he won the NL MVP unanimously. The Chosen One had arrived.

While Harper hasn't been able to replicate that historic campaign, he showed what his ceiling can be. He showcased it again last summer by winning the Home Run Derby at Nationals Park, wowing the hometown crowd with a display for the ages that included 14 homers in the final 47 seconds and 45 overall. While injuries have often prevented Harper from reaching his full potential, he's still been one of baseball's 12 most valuable position players throughout his career. He's slugged at least 20 homers and been an All-Star in all but one of his seven seasons, and he was headed for a second MVP award in 2017 before hyperextending his knee after slipping on a wet base. Harper's 26 years old, he just led the Major Leagues in walks, and he has MVP potential. He is, in other words, a superstar.

He's not the only one whose services are available this winter, however. Manny Machado, last seen during the World Series with the Los Angeles Dodgers, is arguably just as good as Harper. Machado, who's just four months older than Harper, also debuted in 2012 and immediately emerged as one of the best players in baseball. In 2013 he was an All-Star en route to leading the AL in doubles, and starting in 2015 he's topped 30 homers every year.

While not quite the force that Harper is at the plate, Machado's a comparable baserunner and an elite defender at a more challenging position, earning a pair of Gold Gloves for his outstanding work at the hot corner (he can also play shortstop, but not as well as third). He's one of 15 position players to compile at least 30 fWAR since 2012, tallying virtually the same amount as Harper in one fewer game. That hasn't translated to an MVP yet, but it has helped the four-time All-Star to three top-10 finishes despite playing for mostly mediocre teams in Baltimore. And whereas Harper has struggled with injuries, Machado has been extremely durable, appearing in at least 156 games in five of his last six seasons.

Nearly 20 years later, A-Rod's superdeal is still the standard (SI)

Baseball hasn't had a free agent so good and so young since 2000, when Rodriguez was a 25-year-old shortstop coming off three straight 40-homer seasons with the Seattle Mariners. Now it has two, in the same winter, no less.

In the old days, that would have sparked a feeding frenzy between baseball's richest teams. The Red Sox Yankees, Cubs, and Dodgers would've opened up their vaults for them, spawning a bidding war the likes of which baseball has never seen. But, as last winter's slow-moving market proved, times have changed. Teams are not willing to pursue free agents as aggressively as they used to, not when it means committing large sums of money to ageing players who will cost them compensatory draft picks, luxury tax penalties, and payroll flexibility. Better to drag out negotiations and drive down the price once Spring Training is underway and players start getting desperate.

But if there was ever a player to break the bank for, it's Machado and Harper. Sure, they have red flags and rub a lot of people the wrong way, but they're young and athletic and certifiable stars. There's not too many of those left in baseball these days, so they're sure to attract eyeballs and sell jerseys. Neither has won a championship, which should continue to drive them after the ink dries on their new contracts. They'll instantly transform whichever lineup they join and add multiple wins to a team by themselves. Not everyone can afford them, but everyone could use them.

It's hard to reconcile, then, why both remain unsigned despite playing different positions and negotiating with different teams. The Dodgers have the money and the roster space for Harper after trading away Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig, while the Phillies, White Sox, and Yankees all need Machado on the left side of their infields. So what's taking so long?

It's not as though teams haven't tried to sign either player. Harper rejected a 10-year, $300 million offer from the Nationals, which would have made him the richest free agent ever (Washington has reportedly since upped its offer). Machado received an offer from the White Sox, albeit a smaller one closer to $200 million. Both are worth more than that, and they know it. But is there a team willing to give it to them?

We'll just have to wait and see.

Harper Wins Handily, Donaldson Defeats Trout

For the third time in four years, Trout was denied an MVP he deserved to win (LA Times)

This year's MVP race featured a pretty easy call in the National League and a brutally tough call in the American League. As usual, the BBWAA knocked the meatball out of the park but froze on the outside curve at the knees.

To be fair, that tough call was borderline impossible. Mike Trout's stats and Josh Donaldson's stats were virtually identical, and when that happens you tend to see voters falling back on wonky criteria to make their decisions, i.e. whose team made the playoffs, who had the better second half, who was part of a better story, etc. I'm sure some also felt less compelled to vote for Trout since he won last year, whereas Donaldson had never won.

Still, the fact remains that in tight races, the BBWAA seems to get the calls wrong more often than not. I'm thinking back to all those years Ted Williams lost out to his Yankee rivals (usually Joe DiMaggio), when Roger Maris edged out Mickey Mantle twice, how Sammy Sosa sneaked off with Mark McGwire's trophy, and the recent Trout and Miguel Cabrera debates. I could go on and on--Albert Pujols vs. Ryan Howard, Matt Kemp vs. Ryan Braun, any shortstop vs. Juan Gonzalez. Maybe I'm just not remembering the times voters have gotten the close ones right, but I can think of many more examples where the opposite was true.

I'm really starting to feel bad for Trout. The dude should have four MVPs by now, and instead he just has one and three second-place finishes. While that's still an impressive accomplishment, there's no trophy for second place. He could/should have been the first player in baseball history to be a four-time MVP before his 25th birthday, not to mention the only player not named Barry Bonds with more than three. Instead, he's still searching for his second.

Trout's starting to suffer from the Willie Mays effect, which is that even though everyone acknowledges him as the best all-around player in baseball, they still find ways to give the MVP to someone else. His seasons are all so great that none of them feel special anymore; it's just business as usual, another ho-hum nine-win season from Trout. People don't appreciate just how ridiculously good he has been--the best ever in baseball history at his age up to this point.

It's probably no coincidence, either, that despite leading American League position players in bWAR four years in a row, the only year he won MVP was the year his team made the playoffs--and that was his worst season individually! The other three times, he lost out to an inferior player on a postseason team. Voters are still failing to isolate the player from the team.

People didn't have that problem with Harper, who was far and away the best player in baseball this year even though he played for one of the most disappointing clubs in recent memory. The failures of his teammates not named Max Scherzer didn't stop him from winning unanimously, becoming the youngest player to do so (Trout had been the previous record-holder after winning unanimously last year).

It also helped that Harper had the trophy locked up by Memorial Day, surviving historic second halves from Joey Votto and Jake Arrieta. Of course, the MVP at the end of May isn't always the MVP come October, as we saw with Josh Hamilton in 2012 and Troy Tulowitzki in 2014, but Harper hit plenty over the season's final four months to protect his lead. When the dust settled, he had the highest WAR, OBP, slugging, OPS, and OPS+ in the majors, not to mention the most runs and long balls in the National League. Not even a surprise strangling by Jonathan Papelbon could knock him off. 

Harper is very much a modern MVP winner in that he won because he had the best numbers.  Even though he came from a crappy team, failed to drive in 100 runs, didn't play a premium position, and was not well-liked throughout the game--reasons voters might opt for someone else--he still won unanimously. His numbers were simply too overwhelming.*

*Which is funny, because he had the kind of season Ted Williams used to have every year, only Williams was usually dismissed for all the reasons I just mentioned

Unlike the AL award, the NL MVP was never in doubt (ABC6)

So while the NL race was effectively over by June, the American League remained an epic back-and-forth struggle between Trout and Donaldson throughout the summer. Whenever one seemed to take the lead, the other would get hot and pull even again.

The stretch that sealed it for Donaldson was the six weeks between the end of July and middle of September. Toronto took off during that time, rising from a game under .500 to first place in the AL East, leapfrogging three teams to get there. Donaldson went out of his mind during his team's ascension to the top of the standings, batting a sizzling .364/.433/.755 with 14 homers and 49 RBI over 39 games from July 29th through September 11th. With the Blue Jays firmly in control of first, no one seemed to notice how much he tailed off over the season's final three weeks, losing 31 points from his OPS.

While Toronto and Donaldson were kicking it into high gear for the stretch drive, Trout and the Angels were falling apart. Fourteen games over .500 and leading the AL West on July 23rd, Los Angeles plummeted to a game below .500 and 7.5 out of first by the end of August. Not surprisingly, LA's slide coincided with Trout's worst month as a professional. From August 1st through August 29th he batted .194/.336/.290 with just six extra base hits and six RBI.

Both rebounded in September, but were unable to make up the ground they lost in their late summer swoon. The Angels missed out on the second wild card by one game, and Trout was unable to overtake Donaldson in the MVP vote.

He should have. Trout was the best hitter in the American League--his raw OPS was 52 points better than Donaldson's in a much tougher hitting environment--while playing center field, a more demanding position than third base (Donaldson's position). Donaldson had better counting numbers, but that was largely because he had better hitters around him and walked less, so he ended up with 45 more at-bats even though Trout played one more game. Besides, we know stats like runs and RBI are team-dependent and thus should not hold much weight in these discussions.

So how did Donaldson win? Trout won last year, which probably hurt him, but I think the real reason was that that Donaldson had narrative on his side. He comes over in a blockbuster trade and then immediately leads his team to the postseason--their first playoff berth in 22 years, mind you--his very first year there. He had plenty of help from Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Russell Martin, and David Price, but people seem to think Donaldson, like Maris coming to the Yankees in 1960 or Bonds going to San Fran in '93, made the difference.

I don't think so. I think Toronto still makes the playoffs with Brett Lawrie at third, all else being equal but they probably don't win the division. Los Angeles, on the other hand, wouldn't have even sniffed the second wild card were it not for Trout. They had a negative run differential with their superstar center fielder, so they surely would have had a losing season without him. Trout single-handedly turned a mediocre team into a contender, whereas Donaldson made a contender the best team in the American League.

I'm more impressed by what Trout did for LA than what Donaldson did for Toronto. Then again, I'd still vote for Trout even if the Angels had lost 100 games. Because the best player is the most valuable, and once again Trout was the best.

Analyzing Harper's Hot Start

Harper's having a tremendous start to the season (Zimbio)

Bryce Harper was at it again yesterday, going 3-for-4 with a triple and home run in Washington's 10-5 rout of the San Diego Padres.  The blast, Harper's NL-leading 14th of the year, was also his ninth in the past dozen days. And while he fell a double short of the cycle, the big day raised his batting line to a Ruthian .338/.476/.729 (221 OPS+).

Granted, we're not even a quarter of the way through the season yet, but it's impossible not to marvel at what Harper's done thus far. He's put the Nationals' slumping lineup on his back, accounting for one-third of the team's home runs and driving in a major-league leading 37 runs. Opponents have pitched around him, intentionally walking him five times already and 36 overall (both lead the majors), but that hasn't stopped him from inflicting major damage on the few strikes he does see.

Harper went yard on Opening Day and hasn't stopped hitting since. Following a strong April in which he posted a .985 OPS, he's been even better thus far in May with nine home runs, 22 RBI, and 14 walks with two weeks to go before the calendar flips to June. His OPS for the month currently stands at an astronomical 1.511.

Harper's been the best hitter in baseball over the first six weeks, and thus appears to have become the superstar he was always destined to be. After three years of coming up short in comparisons to Mike Trout, baseball's other wunderkind, Harper has finally ascended to Trout's level. Right now it's Harper, not Trout, who currently leads all of baseball in refWAR.

There's a lot of interesting trends going on with Harper's hellacious start. The first is his walk rate, which has ballooned to over 21 percent--more than double his career 10.4 percent mark coming into the year. A lot of that has to do with how poorly the Nationals not named Harper and Denard Span have hit, but at the same time Harper's also exhibited improved patience and strike zone knowledge in his fourth big league campaign. His overall swing rate is the lowest of his career, as he's been much more selective on pitches both in and out of the zone.

His batted ball data also reveals major shifts from his first three seasons, starting with his spray charts. Harper's pulled over half the balls he's put in play this year, after never having done so on even 40 percent of his batted balls in any prior season. He's using center field about the same, meaning he's going the other way a lot less often. This shift helps explains Harper's massive power surge, as players rarely hit to the opposite field with power and tend to pull the majority of their home runs.

Harper has also become a different hitter in terms of how he elevates the ball. He's become much more of a fly ball hitter, hitting more fly balls than grounders for the first time in his career. That would also explain why his power numbers are through the roof, and should help them stay up even as his 34.1 percent HR/FB inevitably falls back to earth. Impressively, he's managed to loft the ball much more frequently without increasing his pop-out rate, which is just a tick below his career rate.

Harper's also hitting more line drives than ever before, which helps explain how he's been able to bat .383 on balls in play despite lifting almost half those balls into the air. With FanGraphs classifying nearly one-quarter of his batted balls as line drives, it's no wonder that he's flashing the highest hard-hit percentage of his career, either, with two-fifths of his batted balls qualifying as such.

So what does all of this mean? Harper, the age of a typical college graduate, is still improving. He's walking more (a lot more), striking out less, and hitting the ball with authority. Luck has absolutely played a part in his hot start--that home run rate and BABiP are bound to fall--but Harper has proven himself to be a demonstrably better hitter. His increased patience is indicative of a maturing player, while his superior results on swings suggest he's honing in on pitches he can crush. It's plain for all to see that Harper is locked in, which is always a sight to behold when a player with his unlimited ability develops the right approach to complement it.

The last few years there was no doubt about who the best player in baseball was. Now it's very much up for debate.

9 Lessons From Baseball's First Week

Baseball has been back for little more than a week, so what have we learned so far? It's still early, so not much, but here are a few key takeaways from the first week of ballgames:

1. Chris Davis's breakout was for real
2. Roy Halladay might actually be done...
3. ...But Chase Utley isn't
4. The Red Sox are better than we thought
5. The Yankees are just as bad (and maybe worse) than we feared
6. Bryce Harper, not Mike Trout, is poised to become the best player in baseball
7. Texas does not like Josh Hamilton
8. A healthy Mike Morse is a force to be reckoned with
9. Justin Upton is a legit MVP candidate, his disappointing 2012 notwithstanding

Harper, Trout Top Rookies

The Rookie of the Year results were announced on Monday, and there weren't too many surprises. Bryce Harper and Mike Trout, neither of whom were old enough to drink when the season began, took home the trophies.

Trout, as expected, won unanimously by collecting all 28 first place votes and becoming the youngest player to win the AL award, beating out Lou Whitaker's 1978. Oakland's Yoenis Cespedes finished second on the strength of his 23 home runs, 16 steals and 137 OPS+. In a normal year, he takes home the trophy, especially given the prominent role he played in Oakland's division-winning season. Yu Darvish, the most anticipated Japanese pitcher since Daisuke Matsuzaka, finished third after winning 16 games, piling up 221 strikeouts and posting the second highest K/9 rate in baseball behind Max Scherzer. He also had the third lowest H/9 and HR/9 ratios despite calling The Ballpark in Arlington, a notorious hitter's park, home. His 89 walks (fourth most) and inconsistency were concerns, but if he can improve his command he'll be able to achieve his Cy Young potential. It will be interesting to see if he can avoid the pitfalls, namely wildness, inconsistency and fragility, that plagued Matsuzaka and made Boston rue the day they ponied up more than $100 million to make him a Red Sock.

Fellow starting pitchers Wei-Yin Chen (fourth) and Jarrod Parker (fifth) rounded out the AL ballot. Chen proved to be a nice pickup for the Orioles, stabilizing the rotation and serving as the de facto ace after knee surgery derailed Jason Hammel's career year. The Taiwanese southpaw made 32 starts and led the team in wins (12), strikeouts (154) and innings pitched (192.2). As for Parker, the 23 year-old emerged in his A's debut after Arizona traded him, Ryan Cook and Collin Cowgill for Trevor Cahill, Craig Breslow and cash. Parker won 13 games with a 3.47 ERA while posting the second lowest HR/9 ratio in the Junior Circuit (only Felix Hernandez was better). His glaring home/road splits are something to keep an eye on next year.

The National League race was much tighter. Bryce Harper became the second youngest winner ever (behind Dwight Gooden) and captured 16 of 32 first place votes. However, he won by a difference of only seven points. Runner-up Wade Miley received a dozen first place votes and had a legitimate claim to the award after going 16-11 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Most impressively he walked just 37 batters in 194.2 innings of work while fanning nearly four times as many. If Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson bounce back next year, Arizona is going to have a formidable starting rotation. Cincinatti's Todd Frazier did a great job filling in for Scott Rolen, providing Harper's numbers without the flair. He got three first place votes for his efforts. Fourth place Wilin Rosario earned the remaining first place vote. Colorado's slugging backstop led all catchers with 28 home runs and his .530 SLG, but also led them in errors and passed balls. His combination of prodigious power and defensive struggles reminds me of Mike Napoli.

Norichika Aoki, a 30 year-old Japanese rookie, placed fifth. The Brewers leadoff hitter batted a solid .288, reached base nearly 36 percent of the time and displayed some pop with 51 extra base hits. He also stole 30 bases and scored 81 runs. Nothing special here; just a very steady, underrated ballplayer. Had nearly identical numbers to Alejandro De Aza.

Yander Alonso, Matt Carpenter and Jordan Pacheco all tied for sixth with one point apiece. Alonso led all rookies with 155 games played, but his counting stats were unimpressive and none of his numbers stand out besides his 39 doubles and .348 OBP. To be fair, he does play for the Padres.Carpenter proved to be a decent replacement for Lance Berkman by batting .294/.365.,463 and figures to put up good numbers as a regular next season. Pacheco, like his teammate Rosario, had issues in the field but compensated with terrific production at the dish. He batted a Coors Field-inflated .309, cracked 32 doubles, and drove in 33 runs over the season's final two months. Could be the next Garrett Atkins.

Now I would like to direct your attention to the two winners.

Trout, the five-tool stud projected as a future Mickey Mantle, struggled in his initial call-up two summers ago. The 19 year-old barely batted his weight and had more strikeouts than hits. He showed flashes--a long home run here, a nice running catcher there--but clearly wasn't ready for the Show. Little more than a year later he's looking back on an MVP caliber season, the greatest campaign ever produced by  20 year-old according to bWAR. Better than Alex Rodriguez, Ted Williams, Ty Cobb, and all the rest. He paced the major leagues in runs (129), stolen bases (49) and bWAR (10.7) something no rookie had ever done before. He was the only American Leaguer to go 30/30 (Ryan Braun did so in the NL) and became the first rookie to turn the trick. He helped the Angels overcome their 6-14 start and make a run at a Wild Card berth. He overshadowed Albert Pujols, the greatest hitter in baseball for over a decade. He took away home runs and our collective breath. He did it all. His all-around contributions rivaled anything Willie Mays, Joe DiMaggio or Ken Griffey Jr. ever did.

Trout was so good that he made everyone outside of Washington D.C. forget about baseball's LeBron James, reducing the Chosen One to mere afterthought. Even when Trout wasn't stealing the headlines, the controversy surrounding Stephen Strasburg's premature shutdown became a dominant storyline in the second half. Meanwhile, Harper had the best season by a teenager since Tony Conigliaro, though it was not without its fair share of ups and downs. Harper's rollercoaster season was marked by a strong start, brutal middle and torrid finish. At the end of the day he produced a solid .270/.340/.477 (119 OPS+) batting line while scoring 98 runs, smacking 22 homers and swiping 18 bases. He also provided 5.0 bWAR (setting a new record for teenagers by obliterating Mel Ott's previous mark), made his first All-Star team (becoming the youngest position player to do so) and gave the Nationals a much needed shot in the arm when their lineup was devastated by injuries to Ryan Zimmerman, Mike Morse, and Wilson Ramos, sparking the Nats to the best record in baseball.

Interestingly, both debuted on the same day, April 28th, after wasting nearly a full month in the minors. Here are what their numbers might have looked like had they made the Opening Day rosters:

162 Game Projections (each actually played 139)
Harper 114 runs, 167 hits, 30 doubles, 10 triples, 25 home runs, 68 RBI, 20 steals, 296 total bases
Trout 150 runs, 212 hits, 31 doubles, 9 triples, 34 home runs, 96 RBI, 57 steals, 367 total bases

Impressive, no? If both teams played their budding superstars from Day 1, the Nationals probably would have won at least 100 games and the Halos probably would have made the playoffs.

But that's in the past. The real question is; what can these guys do for an encore? Will they pick up where they left off, or will they suffer through extended sophomore slumps like the ones that plagued Jason Heyward and Eric Hosmer? Trout just had one of the greatest seasons of all time, so he's a sure bet to regress. I'm also less than enthusiastic about the way he finished the season, batting .287/.383/.500 from August 1st onward. Harper, on the other hand, ended the year on fire. I think his 2012 numbers are his floor for next year and expect him to at least hold steady if not improve.