Aaron Judge is Also the New Babe Ruth

A couple weeks ago I wrote that Aaron Judge is the new Mike Trout. With Trout coming back on Friday, however, Judge needs a new comparison, and quick. Thankfully his epic Home Run Derby performance revealed his true colors.

Judge is not Mike Trout 2.0: he's a modern-day Babe Ruth. Both are larger than life (literally, in Judge's case) who demolish baseballs, strike out a lot and play right field for the Yankees. I don't believe in re-incarnation, but Judge might actually be Ruth brought back to life.

That might even be under-selling Judge a little. Ruth hit some long ones during his day, but I'm not sure he could do this:

Who had the Best Non-Ruthian Season?

Who equalled Ruth's 1927 WAR? The answer may surprise you (Historian Insight)

Quick, without looking at the Baseball-Reference WAR leaderboard, which position player not named Babe Ruth had the most WAR in a single season (remembering of course that Ruth owns the three highest and six of the top 12)?

Your first guess (as mine was) might be Barry Bonds circa the early 2000s, when he broke baseball with his videogame numbers. Bonds is up there, but by then his defense and baserunning had deteriorated just enough for him to fall short.

Knowing that, you'd probably be inclined to pick someone who put up insane numbers while manning a premium position, like Rogers Hornsby or Willie Mays. I was certain it was Mickey Mantle, either his Triple Crown season in '56 or his .365/.512/.665 performance the following year, but once again I was wrong.

Another hint: he played left field for the Boston Red Sox.

Well in that case, it has to be Ted Williams! The man batted .406, for goodness sake, while slugging .735 and reaching base 55.3 percent of the time in 1941. All of those marks led the Majors, as did his 135 runs, 147 walks, 37 homers, and 235 OPS+. He struck out just 27 times in 606 plate appearances, and was about as close to perfect as one can be at the plate.

It wasn't him. It was his successor, Carl Yastrzemski, who everyone agrees was not the player Williams was. A tremendous ballplayer and deserving Hall of Famer in his no right, but no Williams.

But the numbers don't lie: The best non-Ruthian season anyone ever had was Yaz's 1967 when he piled up 12.4 WAR, meaning he was effectively as valuable as two All-Stars and a solid regular combined.

WAR is not the end-all, be-all, obviously, and it's only accurate to a certain point. Ranking players based on fractions of WAR is a fool's errand given the stat's margin for error. Still, the closest non-Ruth position player to Yaz is Hornsby's 1924 (12.1 bWAR), which is even less reliable given how long ago that was. Then you have another Ruth season (his first with the Yankees), two years when Bonds was on 'roids ('01 and '02), Lou Gehrig's 1927 (11.8 bWAR), and another Ruth season (1924) before finally getting to Cal Ripken's 1991, which is valued at 11.5 bWAR -- nearly a full win less than Yastrzemski's 1967 total. A good chunk of Ripken's value comes from his positional adjustment too, so one can say with a fair degree of accuracy that Yaz authored the best season by a non-pitcher since Roaring Twenties.

Anecdotally, that checks out. Yaz was superhuman in '67, willing the Sox to the pennant with clutch hitting, superb fielding, and timely baserunning. When Boston needed a homer, he went yard. When he needed a single, he found a hole. He famously went 23-for-44 (.523) over the final 12 games of the regular season, becoming almost impossible to retire. Hall of Famer Bobby Doerr, who was a coach on that team, called it the greatest season he'd ever seen, and he was Teddy Ballgame's teammate when The Kid batted .406 and won a pair of Triple Crowns. Everyone who saw him play that summer have said similar things over the past half-century, solidifying its place as one of the greatest seasons ever (and only growing with stature when so many seasons passed without another Triple Crown).

From a numbers standpoint, though, I just can't quite wrap my brain around it. His raw stats are great, obviously, but they're not misprints. His Triple Crown figures of 44 homers, 121 RBIs, and a .326 average typically wouldn't be enough to lead one category, let alone all three. There are players who exceeded his .418 OBP and .622 SLG for their whole careers, Williams included, and even Yaz nearly outdid himself three years later. His 193 OPS+ is exceptional, but only the 78th-highest mark of all time. He stole 10 bases but was caught eight times. He played phenomenal defense, but left field is the easiest position to play besides first base (especially in Boston, where there's little ground to cover). '67 was a brutal year for hitters, but Fenway Park was also the best hitter's park in baseball at the time. As such, Yastrzemski's neutralized batting line of .334/.427/.638 is only marginally better than his real one.

WAR doesn't even incorporate Win Probability Added or Base-Out Runs Added, both of which he led the league in and would have given him a considerable boost. So...what gives?

Well, his offense alone was worth nearly 10 wins that year, which is pretty incredible. He generated 69 batting runs--more than Miguel Cabrera ever had. Throw in his outstanding defense (he led AL left fielders in putouts and assists) and plus baserunning, shake it all up in the magic WAR blender, and voila! You get 12.4 bWAR, the same total that Ruth produced during his 1927 season, when he swatted 60 homers.

I guess it's telling that since 1967, three players have exceeded 60 homers (six times in all), but only one man has won a Triple Crown. And for the record, Ruth never won a Triple Crown.

Ranking Red Sox Southpaws

Lester is one of the top lefties in Red Sox history, but where does he stand?

Jon Lester is gone, leaving a legacy in Boston as one of the club's greatest southpaws ever. So that got me thinking: if his time in Boston is truly finished (and it probably is), where does that leave him on the organization's short list of best left-handed pitchers?

Since there aren't that many (turns out Fenway Park is a really tough place for lefty throwers to thrive), here are the six best I could come up with.

Honorable Mention: Bill Lee (3.92 FIP  110 ERA+  18.9 bWAR  5.2 WAA)
Had Spaceman not gotten involved in a career-altering Yankees-Red Sox fray early in the 1976 season, he likely would rank higher on this list. As it is, he must settle for just missing the top-five. 29 at the time of the brawl, Lee was coming off three straight 17-win seasons in which he compiled a 3.38 ERA across 827 innings. Though he pitched until 1982 the one-time All-Star was never the same, for only once more after that would he make more than 25 starts or complete more than 180 innings in a season. His legacy would also be much different had he held on to win the seventh game of the 1975 World Series, rather than allow Tony Perez to launch his "Leephus" pitch to the moon. Or had he not antagonized Don Zimmer so much, Lee might have actually pitched some meaningful games for the Red Sox as their 14 and 1/2 game lead over the Yankees slipped away in the second half of 1978. Two months after Boston completed its epic collapse, his ten-year Red Sox career came to an end when he was unceremoniously swapped with utilityman Stan Papi of the Montreal Expos.

5. Babe Ruth (2.76 FIP  125 ERA+  20.8 bWAR  9.9 WAA)
Before the Babe became the best slugger in baseball history, he was one of the game's premier pitchers. A two-time 20-game winner, Ruth compiled a 2.19 ERA in his six seasons with the Sox, winning the 1916 ERA crown with his 1.75 mark (maintained over 323.67 innings, I might add). His nine shutouts that year are still a record for an American League lefthander, since tied by Ron Guidry in 1978. The following season he was almost as good, with a 2.01 ERA in 326 and 1/3 innings and 35 complete games. After that the Red Sox realized how valuable the Bambino's bat was and limited his workload. But even after he became more renowned for his exploits as a hard-hitting outfielder Ruth remained effective when he toed the rubber, posting a 2.22 ERA in 1918 and 2.97 mark in 1919, his final year with the Red Sox. The Sultan of Swat also strung together 29 and 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings in World Series play, a record that stood until Whitey Ford bested it in the 1961 Fall Classic.

4. Dutch Leonard (2.39 FIP 129 ERA+ 27.2 bWAR 14.6 WAA)
Leonard spent his first six seasons with Boston, compiling a 2.13 ERA in his time there. After notching a 2.39 ERA across 259 and 1/3 innings as a 21 year-old rookie in 1913, for an encore he set the single season ERA record (post-1900) with his 0.96 mark the following year. He did not allow a single home run that year in 224 and 2/3 innings (it was the Deadball Era, after all) and also paced the majors in adjusted ERA, FIP, WHIP, H/9 and K/9. All told, Leonard's historic campaign was valued at 9.2 bWAR. His ERA rose to 2.36 in 1915-'16, years he helped Boston win the World Series with complete game victories in each Fall Classic. He also achieved two no-hitters with the Sox, his first in 1916 and his second two years later shortly before he had to leave the team because of World War I. The Olde Towne Team won the World Series without him that fall and traded him to Detroit, the team he'd no-hit just a few months earlier. Already on his way down, Leonard was unable to sustain the success that made him one of the best pitchers in baseball history through age 25.

3. Jon Lester (3.61 FIP 120 ERA+ 31 bWAR 16.6 WAA)
A three-time All-Star with Boston, Lester topped 15 wins and 200 innings in a season five times. Consistently great in the regular season save for his poor 2012, Lester was at his absolute best in October, helping the Sox capture two World Series titles with his 2.11 ERA in 13 postseason appearances (11 starts). He deserved to share last year's World Series MVP with David Ortiz after allowing just one earned run in 15 and 1/3 stellar innings. In 2008 he became the first Sox lefty in 52 years to pitch a no-hitter when he blanked the Royals at Fenway on May 19th, three weeks after holding the Blue Jays to one hit in eight innings. Lester is one of only three Red Sox pitchers (Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez are the others) to strike out 15 batters in a single game.

2. Mel Parnell (3.79 FIP 125 ERA+ 27.4 bWAR 13.5 WAA)
Parnell pitched his entire ten-year career with the Red Sox, making two All-Star teams and drawing MVP votes four times. His 1949 campaign was Cy Young caliber, with his 25 wins, 27 complete games and 7.9 bWAR tops in baseball to go along with his league-leading 2.77 ERA, 295 and 1/3 innings, and 0.2 HR/9. He started that year's Midsummer Classic and nearly pitched Boston to the pennant before Joe McCarthy exhausted him down the stretch. Overused during his early years Parnell burned out fast but still had flashes of former brilliance, as he did when he twirled a no-hitter in his final season, 1956, on July 14th against the White Sox at Fenway. It was the first by a Boston pitcher since Howard Ehmke's 1923 no-no, and it would take 52 years before a Sox southpaw hurled another. Nearly 60 years after his last game, Parnell still holds the franchise records for most starts, innings, and wins by a lefthander.

1. Lefty Grove (3.60 FIP 143 ERA+ 44.7 bWAR)
The Pedro of his era, Grove wasn't known for his durability but still put up outstanding numbers in the face of high-scoring times. Like Josh Beckett, Grove's first season in Boston was a nightmare but he pitched well after that, winning four ERA titles (each time with the best league and park-adjusted ERA in baseball) and leading the league in pitcher bWAR in 1935, '36, and '37. One of Tom Yawkey's most prized possessions, the former Philadelphia Athletics star made five straight All-Star teams from 1935-39 and won the final 105 games of his Hall of Fame career in eight seasons wearing the Boston uniform, including his 300th (and last) victory in 1941. While Grove was past his physical prime when he joined the Red Sox at age 34, he perfected his curveball and, using it as an out pitch, remained an elite pitcher throughout his 30s, making it (just barely) to 300 wins. It makes sense that the best lefthanded pitcher of all-time (sorry, Sandy Koufax worshipers) is also the best lefthanded pitcher in Red Sox history.

Grove overcame arm troubles and put together a strong second act with Boston

Aaron's Anniversary

40 years ago today, a new home run king was crowned. Hank Aaron, 40 years old at the time took Al Downing deep for the 715th home run of his career, breaking Babe Ruth's record. In the four decades since only one other player--Barry Bonds--has hit as many in his career. Bonds, of course, would up with 762, seven more than Aaron.

Both needed late career surges to get there. Bonds averaged 52 home runs per year from age 35 through 39, belting 258 in all. Aaron averaged 41 per season over the same age span, adding 203 to his career total. Ruth was not far off, hitting 192 from age 35 to 39, though his run followed a more natural age pattern as his home run totals dropped every year, falling from 49 at 35 to 22 at 39.

(Ruth was very nearly matched by the ageless Rafael Palmeiro, who cranked 190 big flies from ages 35 to 39 and has the fourth most home runs in that age bracket. I never would have guessed who was fifth: none other than Andres Galarraga)

It's not surprising that the three greatest home run hitters of all-time were also the three best home run hitters from age 35 to 39. Most sluggers begin to experience a power drop-off in their early 30s, so anyone who can average 40-50 home runs in his late 30s is truly remarkable.

I guess my point is that in order to have what can be considered one of the best careers of all-time, you have to remain elite into your late 30s. It's not enough to be great when you're young because almost all great players are great when they're young. What separates the best from the rest is the ability to stay healthy and retain your skills as you approach 40. Most players fall apart and retire. The best keep plugging along without skipping a beat.

Aaron always said the home run chase was incredibly draining and took a lot out of him. Based on his numbers in the years leading up to his achievement, you wouldn't have thought so. But I do find it interesting that after Aaron broke the record, he got old very quickly. He hit 20 home runs in 1974--half as many as the season before--and posted the second-lowest batting average, OBP, slugging, OPS, and OPS+ of his career. The Braves, perhaps sensing he was slipping, traded him to the Brewers so he could finish his career in Milwaukee. In his time with the Brewers he was merely a shell of his former self--not even DHing could revive his bat--and he called it quits at 42. Starting the day after he broke Ruth' record, Aaron hit .244 and slugged .397 over the remainder of his career. I guess even the best old players get too old at some point.

Best Offensive Baseball Season of the 1920s

1921 Babe Ruth (14.0 bWAR)

ESPN rated this as the best offensive season of all time, and with good reason.  It's too bad there was no MVP award that season, because he would have won it in a landslide.  I'll let the numbers speak for themselves:

-He scored 177 runs, a modern (post 1900) record
-Stroked 204 hits, 119 of which went for extra bases (an MLB record).  He belted 44 doubles, 16 triples, and 59 home runs
-The 59 home runs broke his record of 54, set the previous year--his first in pinstripes.  The Babe outhomered five American League teams and three National League teams by himself
-His 171 RBI set a new single season record as well, but like his home run record it fell in 1927 when future teammate Lou Gehrig knocked in 175
-Stole 17 bases, not too shabby for someone who drank beer like it was water and consumed legendary amounts of food.  In fairness, he was caught 13 times.  He stole a base against every team except the St. Louis Browns
-Batted .378, but finished third in the batting race behind Harry Heilmann and Ty Cobb.  Despite hitting .342 for his career, he was a batting champion only once--in 1924, when he batted .378
-Walked 145 times and posted a .512 OBP; both figures led the majors
-His major league record 457 total bases fueled a major league leading .846 slugging percentage, just one point shy of his record setting figure in 1920 that stood for more than 80 years until Barry Bonds shattered it during his 73 homer season
-Led the majors with a 1.359 OPS and 238 OPS+
-The Yankees shared the Polo Grounds with the New York Giants that year, because the "House That Ruth Built," located across the Harlem River, wouldn't open for two more years.  The stadium's curious dimensions (less than 260 feet down the lines, nearly 500 to dead center) didn't phase the Bambino one bit; he batted a robust .402/.545/.926 with 32 taters at home that year
-Had exactly 102 hits and 22 doubles in each half of the season
-Pulverized American League pitching in general that year, but he got especially fat off Cleveland's staff by torching them for a .469/.642/1.078 line (1.720 OPS)
-Batted over .400 every other month--April, June, and August
-His OPS against righthanded pitchers was nearly 300 points higher than it was against southpaws
-Led the Yankees to 98 wins and their first AL pennant.  Although the Yanks lost to the Giants in the Fall Classic (the first of three consecutive "Subway Series" between the two clubs), the Sultan of Swat launched the first of his fifteen postseason moon shots, a record that stood until Mickey Mantle hit numbers 16, 17, and 18 during the 1964 World Series against the Cardinals