6 Reasons You Don't Want Nelson Cruz

Cruz is not as good as his power numbers suggest (ESPN)

Nine days until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, and Nelson Cruz is still a free agent (but probably not for long). That probably wouldn't be the case if he hadn't served a 50-game PED suspension last year, but then again so did Jhonny Peralta and he signed a fat deal with the St. Louis Cardinals over two months ago. Cruz is one of the few remaining impact free agents, but while his power may be alluring you should hope your team doesn't commit multiple years and millions of dollars to him. Here's why:

1. He's old
Cruz is going to turn 34 on July 1st, well past a player's prime age. His best years are likely behind him, so whoever signs Cruz is likely paying for the decline phase of his career.

2. He's injury-prone
Cruz has played more than 130 games in a season once in his nine-year career.

3. He doesn't hit well outside of Texas
The Ballpark in Arlington (now Ameriquest Field?) is a hitter's haven. Everyone knows that. It's so advantageous that it makes Cruz hit like Frank Robinson, as he's batted .294/.356/.555 with 58.6 percent of his career home runs there. But away from home he's hit a much less formidable .242/.299/.435. Teams like the Mariners who play in pitching friendly environments need to take that into account and adjust their expectations accordingly.

4. His offense is one-dimensional
Cruz is going to get paid because of his power. He's gone yard 135 times during the past five seasons, a total that exceeds those of Ryan Howard, Josh Hamilton and Joey Votto and works out to be an average of 27 dingers per year. Only 16 players have hit more home runs during that span and just four players have posted a better ISo while playing in more games. Still, power is pretty much the extent of Cruz's offensive contributions these days. He's never topped 90 RBI despite batting in some loaded Rangers lineups. He strikes out a lot, doesn't hit for high averages and is a subpar baserunner. Lastly, his patience leaves something to be desired, for Cruz has never walked 50 times in any season and holds a .319 OBP over the last three years. He's basically an older Mark Trumbo.

5. He's a defensive liability
Never a Gold Glover to begin with, Cruz can no longer hold his own in right field and gives back a good chunk of the value his bat provides, which at about two wins per seasons really isn't that valuable to begin with. At this stage of his career he'd be better-suited as a DH, which limits roster flexibility and should make National League teams wary of signing him.

6. He just got busted for PEDs
Cruz was involved in the Biogenesis scandal that brought down Peralta, Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Braun, among others. Who knows how that's going to affect his performance? Melky Cabrera suffered a notable drop-off in performance in his first season following a PED suspension, and he's four years younger than Cruz.

Cruz is a two-win player at best these days, and probably not even that once you factor in age, ballpark, and PED-related decline. The two-time All-Star is probably going to be a bust wherever he signs, especially if he goes to Seattle and has to play half his games in notorious power-killer Safeco Field.

Steer clear, Mariners!

Suspensions Stall Career Years

The MLB suspended 14 players for their involvement with the now-infamous Biogenesis clinic. Alex Rodriguez got hit with a 211-game ban, far and away the harshest punishment handed down, but he's allowed to play as he appeals his ridculously (and unfairly) long suspension. Ryan Braun was slapped with a 65 game ban and didn't fight it. Neither did the other 12, who were given standard 50 game suspensions as first time offenders under baseball's drug policy (A-Rod and Braun were also technically first-time offenders even though they had failed drug tests before. Therefore, they should've been suspended 50 games like everyone else).

Of those dozen, three were All-Stars this year on their way to big seasons. For fun, I projected out some of their numbers to see what they would've looked like at the end of the year:

Everth Cabrera (no relation to Miguel Cabrera)
The 2012 NL stolen base leader was in the midst of a breakout campaign. Not only was Cabrera leading the league in steals again, but he was also hitting .283 and posting a 113 OPS+. Furthermore, the first-time All-Star had been worth three wins for the Padres despite spending three weeks on the Disabled List with a hamstring injury. Seeing as how he didn't miss any games outside of his DL stint, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and assumed he wouldn't have taken anymore days off.

145 games, 82 runs, 165 hits, 56 stolen bases--all career highs

Nelson Cruz
With Josh Hamilton, Mike Napoli, and Michael Young gone, Cruz stepped up and provided big-time power numbers for the Texas Rangers. Adrian Beltre is the team's best hitter and undisputed MVP, but it's Cruz who leads the Rangers in home runs and runs batted in. Health permitting, the slugging rightfielder was on pace to play 156 games and crush his previous career highs in big flies, RBI, and total bases. His first 40 homer/100 RBI season was well within reach, and it couldn't have come at a better time for the free-agent-to-be. Needless to say, Cruz's suspension deals a big blow to Texas, currently clinging to a 1.5 game lead over the A's for first place in the AL West.

159 hits, 39 homers, 110 RBI, 302 total bases--all career highs

Jhonny Peralta
Coming off a disappointing season in which he batted just .239/.305/.384, Peralta (playing for a contract) righted the ship with a strong bounce back performance (.305/.361/.461 and his second All-Star selection). In fact, he was the American League's top shortstop. He'd already accumulated 3.5 bWAR of value for the Tigers and was poised to continue his success in the second half, batting .316/.361/.544 post-All-Star Break. Normally, losing a key player like that for the rest of the season would spell trouble for a team trying to win its division, but Detroit mitigated his loss by acquiring shortstop-of-the-future Jose Iglesias from Boston in the Jake Peavy trade. Iglesias can't come close to matching his predecessor's impact on offense, but he's a much better defender than Peralta, who's an average fielder at best. Bottom line: the Tigers will be fine.

155 games, 180 hits (career high), 43 doubles (career high), 16 homers, 80 RBI, 273 total bases