Cubs Come Apart

Chicago's season came to an end last night (ABC Chicago)

To answer my own question, yes.

Great pitching can stop great hitting. Dead in its tracks.

If anyone seemed immune to New York's talented trio of fireballers (messrs. Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard), it appeared to be the Cubs. Chicago's stacked lineup feasted on fastballs, and nobody throws harder than the Mets--the only team with more than one starter whose average fastball velocity exceeded 95 miles per hour during the regular season (they had three, actually. Care to take a guess?). They had an ace coming off the greatest second half ever, another with a sterling postseason record, and the best manager in baseball. What could go wrong?

Chicago getting swept out of the NLCS seemed unfathomable a week ago. The Cubs were on such a roll, it didn't seem like anyone could stop them. They had the best record in baseball from July 29th onward, then proceeded to eliminate the only two teams with better regular season records than them. Everyone was hitting, Jake Arrieta was untouchable, and the defense and bullpen were rock solid. Just four wins shy of the club's first World Series appearance in 70 years, Chicago appeared to be coming together at the perfect time.

Then, against the Mets, they completely unraveled. The hottest team in baseball never even had a lead. New York's vaunted pitching shut down Chicago's vaunted offense, limiting the Cubs to eight runs and 21 hits over the four games.

After taking a commanding 3-0 series lead, the Mets pressed down on the gas pedal in Game 4. They put the game away early, building up a 6-0 lead after two and sending Jason Hammel to an early shower. They cruised from there, extending their lead to 8-1 after adding a pair of insurance runs in the eighth before finally winning 8-3.

And so the 42,000+ crammed into Wrigley's cozy confines hoping to witness the beginning of a miracle comeback instead saw their team's season come crashing down, realizing the wild ride they'd been on for the better part of three months was over. There was no hope in Wrigleyville last night, no illusions about the Cubs coming alive at the 11th hour. Their bats had shown not an ounce of life during the previous three games, and last night was no different as Steven Matz and co. mowed them down once more.

Better to get your brains beaten in than lose by a whisker, as the Royals did last year's World Series, There's nothing heartbreaking about getting blown out--only demoralizing.

In the end, New York's incredible starting pitching and Daniel Murphy (seriously, where did that come from?) proved too much to overcome. I'm just shocked the Cubs, who took down baseball's lone 100-win team in the NLDS, lost four straight. I thought for sure they'd win at least one of the two started by Jon Lester or Jake Arrieta, but when they lost both those games they were effectively done. Once they lost Game 3, too, they were toast. Theo Epstein may be their president, but they are not the 2004 Red Sox.

NLCS Preview: Can Great Pitching Stop Great Hitting?

Rizzo and his teammates will give the Mets fits (Athlon Sports)

This year's NLCS is, at its core, a battle between the arguably the best starting rotation and best lineup in baseball. The Cubs have good pitchers, of course, and the Mets have some bats too, but that's basically what this series boils down to. Can New York tame Chicago's fearsome lineup?

 

If anyone's up to the challenge, it would be the Mets' nasty trio of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard, any one of whom is capable of dominating any time they take the mound. They'll need to, as New York's bullpen is pretty iffy before you get to Jeurys Familia in the ninth. Give Cubs hitters enough at-bats against the Mets' soft middle relief, and pretty soon it's going to turn into batting practice.

 

But if anyone's capable of sending those guys to an early exit, it's Chicago.  Because for all New York's pitching, the Cubs simply have too much firepower. There are no holes in that lineup, which is stuffed with power and led the National League in walks. Chicago does strike out a lot--more than any other team in the majors this year--which could easily be exploited by a Mets staff that fanned 8.2 batters per nine during the regular season. But with Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, and Kris Bryant all a threat to go yard at any time, the Cubs can make the Mets pay for the few mistakes they make.

 

Chicago's pitching staff is no joke, either, led by Cy Young candidate Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester--a proven postseason stud. If the Mets can beat either of those guys then they'll be in good shape, but the Cubs have a formidable bullpen capable of preventing further damage, thus allowing Chicago's bats to get back into the game.  It also helps that the Cubs have master tactician Joe Maddon at the helm, which ensures that they won't be undone by any Grady Little-esque errors of lunacy.

 

There's no question about who was the better team during the regular season. The Mets won 90 games in a division where three out of the five teams lost at least that many while the Cubs, winners of 97, finished third in their division. New York's lineup is average at best, not to mention heavily dependent on Lucas Duda, Yoenis Cespedes, and Curtis Granderson for production. Neutralize them, and the Mets will be hard-pressed to score. Stifle Chicago's top hitters, however, and the Cubs can still put runs on the board. They can hurt you in so many ways.

 

Like the ALCS, this has all the makings of a great series. Also like the ALCS, I think the team with the better bats will win. Cubs in six.

Way to Go, Wright

Wright's achieved a lot in the ten years since his first game (BleacherNation)

Yesterday marked the ten-year anniversary of David Wright's major league debut (the Mets lost, of course). So in honor of the Mets' 31 year-old third baseman, here are ten of his most impressive accomplishments:

1--Wright's ranking in Mets franchise history in RBI, hits, doubles, total bases, walks, runs scored, sacrifice flies, times on base, extra base hits, runs created, and strikeouts. They call him Mr. Met for a reason, you know.

2--Gold Gloves and Silver Sluggers Wright has won. Wright received both in 2007 and 2008.

3--NL Player of the Week awards; one in 2005, another in 2006 and his most recent in 2011. Also the number of times he's stolen more than 20 bases in a season.

4--Winning teams Wright has played for. Also the number of times he's finished in the top-ten of the NL MVP voting.

5--The number worn by Wright on the back of his jersey (great number, by the way). Also the number of All-Star Games in which he's been National League's starting third baseman.

6--Seasons with at least 20 home runs for Wright, who's currently sitting on 230 for his career.

7--All-Star selections. Wright made the NL squad every year from 2006 through 2010, then again in 2012 and 2013. Also the number of times he's hit better than .300 in a season.

8--Seasons with an OPS over .850/OPS+ over 120.

9--Wright's rank among active players in Power-Speed #. On a related note, also the number of consecutive seasons (not including this one) where Wright's recorded at least 10 homers and 10 steals.

10--Postseason games, all in 2006 when the Mets took the eventual World Series champion Cardinals to the brink in the NLCS. Don't ask Mets fans (or Carlos Beltran) how that one turned out.

NLCS Preview

For all of LA's star power, St. Louis has the superior lineup top-to-bottom. There's legit MVP candidates (Matt Carpenter and Yadier Molina), postseason legends (Carlos Beltran and David Freese) plus one of the best pure hitters of his generation in Matt Holliday. Los Angeles isn't short on bats by any means with Yasiel Puig, Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez fueling the Dodger offense, but in a slugfest I'd take the Cards.

However, I don't think that's going to be enough to compensate for St. Lo's lack of top-end starting pitching outside of Adam Wainwright. The Dodgers are clear favorites because they are in possession of the best pitcher on the planet (Clayton Kershaw) as well as a former Cy Young winner in Zack Greinke. That pair of aces makes them nearly unbeatable in a short playoff series. If Wainwright isn't in top form, the Cardinals are screwed anyways.

The Cardinals have the bats, but the Dodgers have the arms. In October, pitching reigns supreme and is going to make the difference in this series. With that in mind, I'm saying Dodgers in six.