2015 NL Silver Slugger Review

Harper won his first of what will likely be many Silver Sluggers (CBS Washington)

The National League did a much better job of selecting its Silver Sluggers than the American League did. There was but one selection I disagreed with, and only by the slimmest of margins.

C Buster Posey

Posey was an easy choice after leading the position in the triple slash stats as well as wOBA (.363) and wRC+ (138). His 95 RBI were also tops among catchers.

1B Paul Goldschmidt

Really tough call here between Goldy and Joey Votto. Goldschmidt hit for a little more power, but Votto reached base at a higher rate than anyone besides Bryce Harper. Their OPSes were within five points of each other, but Votto came out slightly ahead in wRC+ (172 to 164) and wOBA (.427 to .418). So as great as Goldschmidt was, Votto was just a hair better.

2B Dee Gordon

Gordon's not a traditional Silver Slugger recipient in that he amassed just four homers and 46 RBI, but he was still the best-hitting second baseman in a weak NL field (the only other leaguemate worthy of consideration was Daniel Murphy). His 205 hits and 58 steals led the majors while his .333 batting average paced the NL--numbers that would make Ichiro Suzuki smile.

3B Nolan Arenado

At the start of the year, who would have guessed that Arenado would lead the loop in home runs, the majors in RBI and total bases, and his position in slugging? I didn't see any of those things coming true, let alone all of them, and I'm sure you didn't, either. As long as he sticks around in Colorado, he'll probably have several more years like this.

SS Brandon Crawford

Crawford was one of the few National League shortstops who was an asset with the stick this year, taking advantage of Troy Tulowitzki switching leagues and a down year by Ian Desmond to cop his first (and probably only) Silver Slugger. His 117 wRC+ was the highest by a shortstop who qualified for the batting title, and his 21 home runs were exceeded only by Carlos Correa at the position. With a stronger finish Jhonny Peralta would have won, but his second half fade (one homer and a .604 OPS after August 1st) cost him what would have been his first Silver Slugger.

OF Bryce Harper

The deserving NL MVP was an obvious choice after leading the world in OBP (.460), slugging (.649), OPS (1.109), and OPS+ (195), not to mention the National League in runs (118) and homers (42).

OF Andrew McCutchen

'Cutch earned his fourth straight Silver Slugger, recovering from a slow start to bat .292/.401/.488 (146 wRC+) with 23 homers and 96 RBI.

OF Carlos Gonzalez

CarGo terrorized NL pitching in the second half, cranking 30 homers after Independence Day en route to his first 40-homer season. That monster finish helped him to his best season and first Silver Slugger since his 2010 breakthrough.

P Madison Bumgarner

Few pitchers help their own cause more than Bumgarner, who earned his second straight silver bat after clubbing five home runs in just 77 official at-bats. His .247/.275/.468 batting line would be fine for an outfielder, much less a starting pitcher.

2015 AL Silver Sluggers Review

Cabrera copped his sixth career Silver Slugger, but did he deserve it? (PanAmerican World)

November is MLB awards season, and last week saw some hardware handed out in the form of Gold Gloves and Silver Sluggers. Here is my take on the latter, and whether I thought the winners were truly deserving.

C Brian McCann

McCann bounced back after posting a career-low .692 OPS in his first year with the Yankees, leading all catchers with 26 home runs and 94 RBI and improving his OPS to .756.

In spite of his impressive power totals, I think McCann was probably the third-best hitting catcher in the American League this year. Stephen Vogt and Russell Martin both had a higher OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ than McCann in about equal playing time. They also played in less favorable parks for hitters but were better in all three rate stats.

Vogt and Martin are almost impossible to separate; Vogt got on base a little more while Martin hit for more power. When two players are so close I like to compare their road splits to help eliminate home field advantages, and by that method Vogt comes out way ahead. His numbers, not surprisingly, were severely hampered by playing in Oakland, as he had 13 homers and an .830 OPS on the road compared to five and a ,740 OPS at home. Martin, on the other hand, got a considerable boost from the Rogers Centre, where he launched 13 of his 23 homers and posted an .808 OPS compared to .768 everywhere else. So while Martin's overall numbers are slightly better, Vogt's are undoubtedly more impressive.

1B Miguel Cabrera

Cabrera had another monster year at the plate, continuing his reign as arguably the best hitter in baseball by leading the bigs in batting (.338) and the AL in OBP (.440). He also posted a .413 wOBA and 165 wRC+, tops among American League first basemen. He missed 43 games, though, so his counting numbers were his worst since his rookie year. He failed to reach 25 homers and 100 RBI for the first time since 2003, and just barely qualified for the batting crown.

His only serious competition in the AL came from Chris Davis, who crushed a major league best 47 homers to go along with 117 RBI and 322 total bases. Davis played all but two games, making up most of the ground between him and Cabrera in their rate stats (Davis hit .262/,361/.562, meaning his OPS was 51 points below Cabrera's despite Camden Yards being a much better park for hitters than Comerica). It's close, but Cabrera was so much better when he did play that I think he's the proper call.

2B Jose Altuve

Houston's diminutive second baseman had another big season, leading the loop in hits and steals for the second year in a row while batting .313/.353/.459 (120 wRC+). He also improved in the power department by smacking 15 home runs--more than double his previous career high--and driving in 66 runs--also a personal best. While Jason Kipnis was actually a bit better in terms of rate stats, Altuve's edge in playing time (154 games to 141 for Kipnis) and plate appearances (Altuve accumulated 48 more) is enough to make up the difference.

Altuve won his second straight Silver Slugger, topping 200 hits again (Fox Sports)

3B Josh Donaldson

Manny Machado had a great year, but none of the third-sackers in baseball could hold a candle to the one Donaldson just had. He led the position in pretty much every meaningful statistic, a dominant showing that will likely earn him AL MVP honors over Mike Trout. Donaldson led the majors in runs (122) and the league in RBI (123), total bases (352), and extra base hits, helping Toronto end its 22-year postseason drought.

SS Xander Bogaerts

Wire-to-wire, Bogaerts was the best-hitting shortstop in the American League this year. The 22 year-old rebounded from a horrendous rookie year to bat .320/.355/.421 with 196 hits, including 35 doubles. Lots of things went wrong in Boston this year, but Bogaerts wasn't one of them.

There were two other shortstops, however--both rookies--who were much better on a per-game and per at-bat basis. Houston's Carlos Correa led all shortstops in home runs with 22 despite not making his major league debut until June 8th. And though he batted 41 points lower than Bogaerts, his OBP was nearly as strong and his slugging was over 90 points higher. So while Bogaerts played 156 games to Correa's 99, Correa nearly doubled his offensive value.

Francisco Lindor, like Correa, was also a more valuable offensive player despite appearing in just 99 games. He had almost the same average and OBP as Bogaerts while slugging 61 points higher--all while playing in a much tougher park for hitters.

I would have voted for Correa, who was clearly the best-hitting shortstop in baseball this year, but I can understand why the huge disadvantage in playing time (Bogaerts played all but six games) cost him.

OF Mike Trout

Another year, another Silver Slugger for Trout, who's won in all four of his full seasons. He was the best hitter in the American League this year, pacing the Junior Circuit in slugging, OPS, OPS+, runs created, wRC+, wOBA, total offense, and times on base. He deserves another MVP, too, but it looks like he'll go home empty-handed.

OF Nelson Cruz

Cruz was a no-brainer after batting .302/.369/.566 (158 wRC+) with 44 homers--amazing numbers for anyone but even more incredible considering he played half his games at Safeco. Among major league outfielders, only Trout and Bryce Harper had a better wOBA, wRC+, and more offensive value.

OF J.D. Martinez

Here's another place where I disagree. The third-best hitting outfielder in the American League was Jose Bautista, not Mr. Martinez. Their slugging percentages were within one point of each other, but Bautista's OBP was 33 points higher. Even after accounting for their ballparks, Bautista still holds a sizable edge in wRC+ (147 to 137) and wOBA (.389 to .372) in more plate appearances (666 to 657). There is no argument for Martinez over Bautista.

 Martinez received a silver bat that should have gone to Bautista (iSportsWeb)

DH Kendrys Morales

Morales proved to be a shrewd offseason pickup for Kansas City, enjoying his best season since his 2009 breakout with 41 doubles, 22 homers, 106 RBI, a 131 wRC+ and .364 wOBA. Morales was instrumental in helping the Royals win it all, pacing the team in pretty much every major offensive category and providing much-needed punch in a small-ball lineup. For his efforts, the 32 year-old was rewarded with his first Silver Slugger following his 10th big league season.

But while he may have been the best hitter on the World Series champion Royals, Morales was nowhere near the best-hitting DH this year. David Ortiz posted an OPS some 66 points higher, supplying 37 doubles, the same number of home runs and 108 RBI. His .379 wOBA and 138 wRC+ were both markedly better than Morales's totals, too. The same held true for Edwin Encarnacion, who was actually the most productive DH this year with 39 homers, 111 RBI, a 150 wRC+, and a .392 wOBA.

Then there were a couple of players who were just as deserving as Morales. One was Alex Rodriguez, who slugged 33 homers while posting a nearly identical wRC+ (129) and wOBA (.361). He was also the more valuable offensive player according to FanGraphs, providing roughly five additional runs thanks to his superior baserunning. There was also Prince Fielder, whose numbers (23 homers, 98 RBI, .305/.378/.463) were nearly identical to those of Morales. Even after accounting for the boost Fielder received from Arlington's hitting-friendly environment, his wRC+ (124) and wOBA (.360) suggest he was about dead even with Morales.

It's clear, at least to me, that Morales won largely because of his team's success. Had he still been playing for Seattle or Minnesota, few would have noticed his fine year. After comparing his numbers to other DHs across the league, there's just no way you can conclude he was the best.

Overall, not a great year for Silver Sluggers. The coaches and managers got the easy calls right, but whiffed on a few of the tougher ones. Then again, I'm sure I looked much more extensively into this than the people who actually voted.

Waving Willingham Goodbye

Josh Willingham, one of the game's more underrated sluggers over the past decade, announced his retirement early last week at the age of 35.

The 2012 Silver Slugger recipient had been reduced to a role player in his final two seasons, batting .211/.344/.380 (102 OPS+) while splitting time with Minnesota and Kansas City.  Willingham's was a swift decline, for in 2012 he set career highs with 35 home runs, 110 RBI, an .890 OPS, and 3.2 bWAR, making him one of the few bright spots on a Twins squad that lost 96 games and finished last in their division.

Willingham, affectionately known as "Hammer," was hardly a one-year wonder. Though he didn't debut until he was 25 and didn't play a full season until he was 27, he managed to enjoy a productive 11-year career. He broke out with the Marlins in 2006, finishing ninth in that year's NL Rookie of the Year race (won by teammate Hanley Ramirez) on the strength of his 26 home runs, 74 RBI, and .277/.356/.496 batting line. Proving he was no fluke, Willingham followed up his big rookie campaign with a solid sophomore season that saw him bash 21 more home runs, knock in 89 and post an .827 OPS.

Despite spending 50 games on the disabled list and missing 60 in all in 2008, Willingham did not see his production suffer (.834 OPS with 15 home runs). Florida traded him to the Nationals along with Scott Olsen for Emilio Bonifacio and two prospects. Willingham whacked 40 home runs in his two seasons with Washington, putting up an .863 OPS in 2009 and an .848 OPS the year after.

Unfortunately for Willingham, the Nats dealt him just as they were beginning their ascension to National League powerhouse. He was sent packing across the country to the Oakland A's in exchange for Corey Brown and Henry Rodriguez. The move proved to be a steal for Billy Beane, as both players went bust in Washington while Willingham (in his walk year) led the 2011 A's in home runs (29), RBI (98), OPS( .810) and total bases (233).

As Athletics tend to do, Willingham walked and signed a lucrative contract elsewhere, landing a three-year, $21 million deal with the Minnesota Twins.  His monster 2012 paid off most of that salary, making him a surprisingly good investment in a then-33 year-old slugger. Though Willingham dropped off in the final two years of the deal, he still hit just enough to remain above replacement level both years. The Twins haven't done a lot right lately (see: Ricky Nolasco), but inking Willingham was one of their better moves.

At the end of a career spent toiling for miserable teams, Willingham was fortunate to be traded to the Royals, where he mostly rode the pine but at least got to experience one of the more thrilling postseason runs in recent memory (similar to Adam Dunn, another washed-up slugger, getting a brief playoff taste with Oakland this year, only that didn't turn out so well). In the twilight of his career, Willingham was part of something special, and I can think of few players more deserving.

Martinez Deal a Mistake

Martinez was a beast last year, but is he worth the money? (ESPN)

Victor Martinez will likely retire as a member of the Detroit Tigers. The soon-to-be 36 year-old signed a four-year extension with the Tigers that will pay him close to $68 million, or $17 million per year. The deal will end shortly before V-Mart's 40th birthday.

Now, this is exactly the kind of deal teams should not be making. Banking on the second half of a player's 30s is almost always a terrible idea, especially when said player spent the first half of his career behind the plate. Usually when teams do that, it's because they're locking up a player's early 30s as well, so they hope to get some prime years out of him before his inevitable descent. In this case, the Tigers are merely signing up for Martinez's decline phase, and paying him handsomely for it to boot.

Make no mistake, Martinez will decline. There's nowhere for him to go but down after a monster 2014 campaign that saw him lead the major leagues in OPS at .974. The career-high 32 home runs at age 35 were clearly a fluke, as he had never hit more than 25 before and managed just 26 over the previous two seasons combined. His gap power is legit, as he's now exceeded 30 doubles in a season nine times, but the long ball power is not. He'll be lucky to crack 15 homers next year, let alone 20. He's also painfully slow, which explains how he managed to score only 87 runs despite leading the league in OBP and batting in the middle of Detroit's loaded lineup.

It boils down to this: the player that Martinez is going to be, a two-to-three win player (at best) whose value is tied up entirely in his bat, is simply not worth $17 million a year. He won't be next year, and he definitely won't be four years from now, even though his skill set will probably age well (he hardly ever strikes out and improved his walk rate after three straight seasons of middling walk totals). But if he's just a 10-15 homer guy with zero speed and no defensive value, that's not going to justify his paycheck. He'll also prevent Miguel Cabrera from DH'ing on a regular basis, which will lead to more wear and tear on Detroit's near-$300 million investment.

Coming off four straight division titles but still searching for their first championship since 1984, the Tigers are still in win-now mode and will benefit from his bat in the lineup next year. They'll probably get at least another productive season or two out of Martinez, but it's doubtful he'll still be pulling his weight in 2017 or 2018. V-Mart's deal also likely spells the end of Torii Hunter in a Tigers uniform, as Detroit doesn't have room on its roster for a 39 year-old defensive liability with Martinez as the everyday DH.

The best hitters ward off age and remain productive through their late 30s, and Martinez is a great hitter. But history tells us these deals fail more often than they work out. Betting on a player several years past his prime is always a gamble, one that rarely pays off.

2014 Silver Sluggers Review

The major league batting champ was rewarded with his first Silver Slugger

Silver Sluggers were announced today, and while I was fine with most of them there were a few I disagreed with.

American League
C Yan Gomes
Gomes was a clear choice here given that he had the highest wOBA, wRC+, and second-most home runs among AL catchers (to Brian McCann). Nobody else had a good year behind the plate in the Junior Circuit, opening the door for Gomes in his first full season. He batted .278/.313/.472 with 21 big flies and 74 RBI despite striking out five times as often as he walked.

1B Jose Abreu
Hate to snub Miguel Cabrera and Edwin Encarnacion, but Abreu was better than both. All he did was hit .317/.383/.581 with 36 home runs, 107 RBI, and the highest slugging and OPS+ in baseball.

2B Jose Altuve
Choosing between him and Robinson Cano came down to splitting hairs, but I'm fine with Altuve because he led the majors in hits and batting average with 225 and at .341, respectively. While he managed just seven home runs he did club 47 doubles and rack up 299 total bases.

3B Adrian Beltre
Another well-deserved honor for Beltre, who continued to pad his Hall of Fame totals with a seven-win season. Yup, that's what happens when you play elite defense at third and bat .324/.388/.492 in a parched scoring environment.

SS Alexei Ramirez
In a weak year for American League shortstops, Ramirez wins by default. His 15 homers and 74 RBI were most among AL shortstops, and he also smashed 35 doubles. en if his .273/.305/.408 line was roughly league average after adjustments for league and park. Jose Reyes was the only other one worth considering, and nobody in this day and age is going to give a Silver Slugger to a guy with nine home runs, 51 RBI and a .398 slugging percentage.

OF Mike Trout
Obviously

OF Michael Brantley
Duh

OF Jose Bautista
Of course

DH Victor Martinez
No-brainer

Stanton was born to win Silver Sluggers (RantSports)

National League
C Buster Posey
Posey just barely beats out Jonathan Lucroy for the award on the strength of his slightly superior rate stats and power figures, which look even better with park adjustments. Posey rode a torrid second half to the finish line to end up at .311/.364/.490 with 22 homers and 89 RBI. Also feel obliged to mention Devin Mesoraco.

1B Adrian Gonzalez
Gonzalez had a good year by traditional standards with his 41 doubles, 27 homers and ML-leading 116 RBI, but Anthony Rizzo was clearly the better hitter. Not only did Rizzo exceed Gonzalez in all three rate stats, but he also outhomered Gonzo 32 to 27 and dwarfed him in wOBA (46 point edge for Rizzo) and wRC+ (25 point advantage). Rizzo missed 22 games to Gonzalez's three, but still provided twice as much offensive value according to FanGraphs.

2B Neil Walker
Pretty easy, as few NL second basemen had years worth remembering in 2014 besides Chase Utley and (I guess) Daniel Murphy. Walker was terrific though, smashing a career high 23 home runs to go along with his robust .271/.342/.467 batting line.

3B Anthony Rendon
Todd Frazier had a great year, but Rendon's was better. On top of leading the league in runs with 111, he also popped 21 homers and 39 doubles, batted .287/.351/.473, and knocked in 83 runs despite primarily batting second. And with the 17 steals in 20 tries, it was truly a fantastic all-around campaign.

SS Ian Desmond
Desmond won his third straight Silver Slugger with another solid all-around season, his third straight with at least 20 home runs and 20 steals. His 24 bombs and 91 RBI led the position, but his .255/.313/.430 slash line is not exactly eye-popping. Jhonny Peralta bettered Desmond in all three rate stats, hitting .263/.336/.443, and also posted a higher wOBA and wRC+. With 21 home runs and 75 RBI, his power numbers were nearly as good as Desmond's too. It's a close call either way, but I would have given it to Peralta who was worth 15 runs better than average as a hitter compared to Desmond's three.

OF Andrew McCutchen
Obviously.

OF Giancarlo Stanton
Duh.

OF Justin Upton
Hold on there. While Upton had strong power numbers (29 taters, 102 RBI) to go along with his .270/.342/.491 batting line, those rate stats were nowhere near as good as Yasiel Puig's .296/.382/.480. Puig didn't hit for much power with 16 home runs and 61 RBI, but nevertheless crossed home 92 times, posted a .379 wOBA, and notched a gaudy 147 wRC+. FanGraphs estimates he provided roughly 33 percent more offensive value than B.J. Upton's little brother.

P Madison Bumgarner
We''ll always remember Bumgarner's 2014 for what he did on the mound in October, but let us not forget that he held his own at the plate that year as well. MadBum mashed four home runs and drove in 15 runs to support himself, batting .258/.286/.470 in 78 plate appearances. It was a surprising outburst given that he had managed a meager .138/.185/.192 line with two home runs and 16 RBI in his career prior to 2014.

Soriano Says Good-bye

Soriano had a stellar 16-year career (Rumors and Rants)

As of yesterday, Alfonso Soriano is officially all done with baseball.

The end came quickly for Soriano, as it often does for whiffing machines in their late 30s. After exceeding 30 home runs and 100 RBI in both 2012 and 2013, Soriano fell apart at age 38 in 2014. Soriano batted a meager .221/.244/.367 with six home runs and 23 RBI in 67 games, snapping his streak of 13 consecutive seasons with at least 18 home run and earning a DFA from the Yankees in early July, followed by an outright release. New York cut him loose little more than a year after trading for him to ail their sinking offense, which he did with 17 homers and 50 RBI in just 58 games.

It was a grand return for Soriano, who began his professional career with the Yankees when they purchased him from Japan in 1998. One year later he made his debut, though his role was limited to a cameo on the championship teams of 1999 and 2000. In 2001 he inherited the everyday second baseman's job from the error-prone Chuck Knoblauch, only to become an error-prone second baseman himself. But like Knoblauch, Soriano could hit, and that more than compensated for his adventures in the field.

Following a third place-finish in the AL Rookie of the Year race in 2001, Soriano emerged as a star in 2002, earning his first All-Star nod, Silver Slugger award, and finishing third in the MVP race behind a pair of slugging shortstops: Miguel Tejada and Alex Rodriguez. Batting leadoff in Joe Torre's lineup ahead of Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, Jorge Posada, and Hideki Matsui, Soriano led the major leagues with 128 runs, 209 hits, and stole a league-high 41 bases. With 39 home runs he narrowly missed a 40/40 campaign, especially since he hit his 39th with two weeks left in the season. He also batted an even .300 with 51 doubles and 381 total bases, making his 2002 one of the finest offensive seasons ever by a second baseman.

His 2003 was nearly as good (more valuable according to bWAR, actually), as he was again an All-Star, scored well over 100 runs (114), and went 30/30 with 38 bombs and 35 thefts (caught just eight times). He also piled up 358 total bases and knocked in 91 runs while cutting down on his strikeouts and improving his walk rate. Soriano seemed destined to wind up as one of the all-time great Yankee second basemen, in the same league as Joe Gordon and Willie Randolph.

Only fate intervened. Aaron Boone shredded his knee playing pickup basketball, leaving New York in need of a third baseman. Brian Cashman asked if Alex Rodriguez, who was nearly traded earlier in the 2003-2004 offseason to Boston, was still for sale. He was, and became a Yankee after New York sent Soriano and a player to be named later (Joaquin Arias) to Texas for A-Rod and cash.

Soriano played for four teams but started and ended his career in pinstripes (SBNation)

Soriano continued to produce big numbers for two years in the Texas heat before he was traded to the Washington Nationals, where he enjoyed the finest season of his career in 2006. Moved to left field, he responded with just the fourth 40/40 season in baseball history, joining Jose Canseco, Barry Bonds, and Alex Rodriguez. He also posted a career high .911 OPS en route to 6.1 bWAR and a sixth place finish in the NL MVP race.

That monster season, which included 362 total bases, couldn't have come at a better time for Soriano, who was in his walk year. He capitalized by signing an outlandish eight-year, $136 million contract with the Chicago Cubs which was doomed from the start, as he was about to begin his age 31 season when the ink dried.

Sure enough, Soriano's numbers slid as he aged and struggled with injuries, as he missed significant time in 2007, 2008, and 2009. The speed that helped him steal 30 or more bags five times from 2001 through 2006 dried up overnight, limiting him to single digit stolen base totals (outside of his aberrant 18 steal campaign in 2013) after 2008. His outfield defense, solid at first, grew to be truly abhorrent as his range diminished.

The Cubs' fortunes followed Soriano's, as they fell from playoff contender to one of the worst teams in baseball. It was fitting that they were stuck with a .250 hitter who rarely walked, struck out a ton, and couldn't run or field--a daily reminder of their massive misfire. Soriano would accrue 7.9 bWAR across his eight-year contract, worth not even one win per year despite being one of his league's 10 most expensive players from 2009 through 2013. His contract and underwhelming performance was a significant reason, but hardly the only one (see Edwin Jackson signing), for Chicago's rapid descent into irrelevance.

Soriano's age, declining skills and hefty salaries made his contract appear unmovable. Enter the Yankees, who are always willing to play past-their-prime players big bucks to fill out their roster. In desperate need of a power bat to complement Robinson Cano, the great heir to Soriano's second base job, New York sought out Soriano. That's he ended up back in pinstripes for the final act of his career, which included its last hot streak (second half of 2013) and last gasp (2014).

With 27.2 career bWAR, Soriano's not a Hall of Famer, but he's certainly a Hall of Gooder. His 412 home runs are 50th-most all-time, fueled by seven 30-homer seasons. The seven-time All-Star stole nearly 300 bases (289), notched over 2,000 hits (2,095), and eclipsed both 1,000 runs (1,152) and 1,000 RBI (1,159). His combination of power, speed, and low on-base percentages make him something of a modern Andre Dawson.

During the meat of his career from 2001 and 2013, he ranked second in doubles (to Albert Pujols), fifth in long balls, eighth in hits, 10th in runs and stolen bases, and 12th in RBI. It's easy to forget now just how exceptional he was during his prime 10 years ago, and how even in his later years he remained surprisingly durable and a steady source of power. He only had a handful of truly great seasons, but had more than a few good to okay ones. He didn't live up to his contract, but few players would have. It's not like it was a total disaster, either, as he did hit 204 home runs with 599 RBI, 1,004 hits, and an .802 OPS over the life of it.

Don't remember Soriano only for his failures with the Cubs and the massive paychecks he collected from them. Remember him as a good (but flawed), sometimes great ballplayer who combined power and speed like few others, hit wherever he went, then quickly faded away.

Commemorating Chavez

Over the summer, at the height of Derek Jeter's much-ballyhooed retirement tour, Eric Chavez quietly retired, bringing an end to his 17-year major league career. While age and injuries reduced Chavez to a part-time player during the second half of his career, it's important to remember just how good he was during the first half. Had he just been able to stay healthy, his resume would probably be Hall of Fame worthy. As it is, it resembles something of a poor man's Scott Rolen; strong defense at third base complemented by good power and on-base ability, but a boatload of injuries later in the career. Rolen also happens to be Chavez's most similar batter through age 30, not surprisingly.

Drafted out of high school by the Oakland A's with the 10th pick of the 1996 draft, Chavez made his major league debut two years later. The year after that, he was Oakland's everyday third baseman. After a solid showing as a rookie, Chavez broke out in 2000 with 26 dingers and an .850 OPS, beginning a run of seven straight 20-homer seasons. He would max out at 34 in 2002, the year he won his only Silver Slugger and netted his highest MVP finish (14th) as part of the famed "Moneyball" A's squad. He produced nearly identical numbers the following year, led the league in walks with 95 in 2004, and enjoyed his fourth 100 RBI season in 2005. 2006 marked a bit of a decline for Chavez, as his average tumbled to .241, but he still posted a .351 OBP, smacked 22 home runs, and won his sixth straight Gold Glove.

Because he was basically replacement level for the last eight years of his career, I don't think people remember or appreciate just how good Chavez was at his peak. He was the American League's answer to Scott Rolen. From 2000 through 2005, when he averaged 30 homers and 98 RBI per year while winning five Gold Gloves, he was practically even in terms of value with Manny Ramirez and ahead of guys like Derek Jeter, Carlos Beltran, Miguel Tejada, Carlos Delgado, and Sammy Sosa. He never had that one monster MVP-caliber season or even made an All-Star team, but consistently stayed in the five-win range for half a decade. Had he been able to do that through the rest of the decade into his early 30s, would be discussing his Hall chances right now.

Because through 2006, his age-28 season, Chavez had already piled up 1,143 hits, 245 doubles, 212 home runs, 716 RBI, and 2,060 total bases. His 32.5 fWAR were within one of Chipper Jones at the same age and within two of Wade Boggs and Brooks Robinson. His 212 long balls ranked eighth of all third sackers through age 28, ahead of Dick Allen, Jim Thome, and Mike Schmidt, among others. His 716 RBI were seventh. And with six Gold Gloves already under his belt, Chavez appeared well on his way to Cooperstown.

Then, injuries. First it was debilitating back pain, followed later on by crippling knee ailments. After averaging 144 games per year from 1999 through 2006, Chavez never again played more than 115 games in a season. He played 90 games in 2007, 23 the year after that, and just eight in 2009. In 2010, his 13th and final year with Oakland, he suited up for only 33 games. His performance declined steadily during that time as various injuries took their toll. Worse, he became an enormous bust for the A's, collecting $45 million in player salaries over those final four years in Oakland, during which time he contributed -0.3 fWAR, damning him for all eternity as one of Billy Beane's worst investments.

Those four lost prime years effectively murdered whatever chance Chavez had the Hall, but incredibly they did not end his career. The Yankees, seeking backup for an aging Alex Rodriguez, scooped him up at a bargain bin price. Chavez was a non-factor in his first season with the Bronx (2011) but enjoyed a resurgent 2012 with 16 homers and an .845 OPS in 113 games. Chavez moved on to Arizona following New York's LCS elimination and continued to hit well there in spite of his old age, putting up an .810 OPS at age 35 and .795 at 36.

It was somewhat surprising, then, that Chavez retired midway through last season on July 30th. But the Diamondbacks were going nowhere and a knee injury had forced him to the disabled list. At 36, he was all done fighting his way back from injuries, so he forfeited the $1 million remaining on his contract and went home.

It's a shame we'll never know what Chavez would have accomplished had he stayed healthy. He was on track to be one of the 15, maybe even 10-best third basemen ever, at least on par with Rolen, Ken Boyer, and Ron Santo. Based on his early career trajectory, Chavez probably would have reached benchmarks such as 300 home runs and 2,000 hits, and may have added a few more Gold Gloves as well. As it is, his six Gold Gloves are tied with Buddy Bell and Robin Ventura for fourth-most all-time among third basemen, behind only Brooks Robinson, Mike Schmidt, and Rolen. His career .970 fielding percentage is the fifth-highest at the position.

Chavez is not a Hall of Famer, but for awhile he played like one. It's just too bad things didn't turn out differently, because by all accounts he was one of the game's classier, most respected players. Nobody deserves to have their career ravaged by injuries, but Chavez especially.

Hate Hardy's Extension

Hardy's still great in the field, but his bat has slipped (BaltimoreSports)

I was surprised to hear the other day that the Baltimore Orioles inked shortstop J.J. Hardy to a three-year, $40 million extension. Teams usually wait to take care of this stuff until after the postseason, but with Baltimore still basking in the afterglow of its first AL East title since 1997 perhaps Dan Duquette was feeling a little bold.

Not saying this move is bold, per se, but it could easily backfire. This move has been largely well-received, and frankly I'm not sure why. Hardy's a 32 year-old shortstop, after all, and is coming off a poor season with the bat. He managed just nine home runs last year after swatting 77 over the previous three seasons, with a career-low .104 ISO to go with it. He also posted the worst walk rate of his career at 5.1 percent, as well as the highest K rate (18.3 percent). None of that bodes well for a hitter who previously derived most of his offensive value from power due to his subpar on-base skills and non-existent speed.

So even though Hardy had just as much value this year as he did in 2013 (3.4 fWAR), when he was a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger-winning All-Star, I see a player in decline. Most of that value stems from his stellar defense, which by itself was worth at least two wins this year according to both B-R and FanGraphs. Hardy won't win another Silver Slugger, but he deserves a third straight Gold Glove award.

The problem is that sooner or later, Hardy's defense is going to start slipping. He's getting to that age where reflexes begin to slow down and range starts diminishing. Maybe not next year or maybe not the year after, but it will happen eventually because it happens to everyone, including shortstops much more gifted than Hardy.

And given his spotty track record at the dish (his wRC+ has been above 100 just once in the past six seasons), Hardy's hardly a guarantee to bounce back offensively. An average hitter at best, Hardy will be a real liability at the plate if he can't recoup some of the power that made him an annual 20-25 home run threat prior to this year. He doesn't walk enough, run enough, and strikes out way too much for a guy with single-digit home run pop.

If I'm Dan Duquette, I'm not giving three years and $40 million to a 32 year-old who's batted .255/.298/.399 over the past three years, and I'm definitely not banking on him to rebound.

Holliday Heating Up

After three tough months at the plate, Holliday finally looks locked in

You wouldn't know it by looking at the final numbers, but Matt Holliday got off to a painfully slow start last year. When play began on June 3rd he was hitting .244/.329/.415 with eight home runs through his first 51 games of the season. The early season slump, combined with his age (33) and coming on the heels of back-to-back seasons of declining OPS, led many to speculate that Holliday's best days were behind him.

Only the six-time All-Star wasn't done. Far from it, in fact. Holliday proceeded to snap out of his , of course, and was fine from that point forward. He hit .333/.423/.535 the rest of the way, ending up with a .300/.389/.490 batting line in addition to his 22 home runs and 94 RBI. Another typically excellent offensive campaign for the St. Louis Cardinal, who was one of just nine players last year to top 20 home runs, 90 RBI and a .300 batting average. Only three National Leaguers did it; Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman, and Holliday. Note that Goldy and Freeman play first base, a less challenging defensive position than left field per Bill James's defensive spectrum.

This season appears to be following a similar script; sluggish start, strong finish. Only this time around, the funk was a little deeper, lasting  about a month longer. Through July 7th Holliday was hitting a disappointing .260/.367/.373 with only five home runs, showing none of the power that helped him swat at least 19 every year for the past nine. Once again, it seemed as though Holliday had seen better days.

And once again, he's done everything he can to dispel that notion. In the four weeks before last night's 0-for-3 against Boston, he batted .307/.381/.653 with seven home runs, going yard more times in those 21 games than he did in the previous 87. The power surge has coincided with an increased strikeout rate for Holliday, who whiffed 21 times over that stretch (one per game) as opposed to 54 times prior to that (.62 per game). Holliday may be consciously trying to sacrifice contact for power, but if that's the case it hasn't negatively affected his average. Or it could merely be that July has traditionally been his best home run month.

Whatever the reason, Holliday's swinging the bat well and it's had a positive impact on St. Louis, which went 12-9 during his hot streak. Currently one game behind the first-place Brewers in the NL Central, the Cards could certainly use a big finishing kick from Holliday like the one he provided last year. Though he leads the team in doubles and RBI and ranks tied for second with Matt Adams in home runs, his .792 OPS could stand to jump another 50 or 60 points between now and the end of the season, if not more. 

At least Mike Matheny needn't worry about his number three hitter. Holliday, who's done nothing but hit for the past decade-plus, is hitting now, so there's really no reason to doubt him. He's dug himself out of a big hole before, and here in 2014 he appears to be doing it again.

Way to Go, Wright

Wright's achieved a lot in the ten years since his first game (BleacherNation)

Yesterday marked the ten-year anniversary of David Wright's major league debut (the Mets lost, of course). So in honor of the Mets' 31 year-old third baseman, here are ten of his most impressive accomplishments:

1--Wright's ranking in Mets franchise history in RBI, hits, doubles, total bases, walks, runs scored, sacrifice flies, times on base, extra base hits, runs created, and strikeouts. They call him Mr. Met for a reason, you know.

2--Gold Gloves and Silver Sluggers Wright has won. Wright received both in 2007 and 2008.

3--NL Player of the Week awards; one in 2005, another in 2006 and his most recent in 2011. Also the number of times he's stolen more than 20 bases in a season.

4--Winning teams Wright has played for. Also the number of times he's finished in the top-ten of the NL MVP voting.

5--The number worn by Wright on the back of his jersey (great number, by the way). Also the number of All-Star Games in which he's been National League's starting third baseman.

6--Seasons with at least 20 home runs for Wright, who's currently sitting on 230 for his career.

7--All-Star selections. Wright made the NL squad every year from 2006 through 2010, then again in 2012 and 2013. Also the number of times he's hit better than .300 in a season.

8--Seasons with an OPS over .850/OPS+ over 120.

9--Wright's rank among active players in Power-Speed #. On a related note, also the number of consecutive seasons (not including this one) where Wright's recorded at least 10 homers and 10 steals.

10--Postseason games, all in 2006 when the Mets took the eventual World Series champion Cardinals to the brink in the NLCS. Don't ask Mets fans (or Carlos Beltran) how that one turned out.

Hardy Homers

Hardy hit his first home run of the year yesterday as Baltimore defeated New York

The Baltimore Orioles were already ahead 5-1 when J.J. Hardy dug in for his fourth and final plate appearance of yesterday's game at Yankee Stadium, Baltimore's 73rd of the season. Hardy had appeared in 65 of those, come to bat 263 times, and was still homerless. None of his 83 fly balls had left the park. His uncharacteristic power outage had long since passed the point of reaching epic proportions.

I say uncharacteristic because Hardy has always shown good power, particularly for a shortstop. With 158 home runs in his first nine seasons, he'd exceeded 20 in five of those years and hit as many as 30 in 2011. Going back to the start of the 2007 season, only Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki have more home runs among shortstops. After narrowing that window down to the past three years, Hardy's gone yard more often than any shortstop in baseball, the only person at the position to slug 20 homers or more in all three of those seasons.

Hardy had showed no signs of slipping last year, when he banged 25 homers and was an All-Star, Gold Glover and Silver Slugger recipient. 31 this year, he was too young to have his power disappear overnight like that. It's not normal for players to hit 25 homers one year and none the next year, especially when said player is healthy and still relatively young (which Hardy is) and when there's virtually no change in his batted ball data (Hardy's has remained the same, minus his HR/FB ratio, of course).

Even weirder than Hardy's sudden inability to leave the building was his good fortune on balls in play. Thanks to his .335 BABiP--nearly 60 points above his career average--he was hitting .300 as recently as two weeks ago and is on pace to not only post the highest batting average of his career, but the most doubles a well. With the batting average boost he's getting on base more frequently than at any point in the past three years, and his 92 OPS+ is not far off last year's mark of 100.

Still, Hardy had not been been hitting for power or driving in runs. With no speed to speak of and an aversion to drawing walks, he's been very limited offensively. Not bad, just less effective than in years past, when he could be counted on to put 25 or so balls into the seats.

This year, it took him nearly three months to belt his first. There was one out and nobody on base when he stepped in to face Jose Ramirez, a rookie reliever from the Dominican Republic who'd just whiffed Chris Davis. Hardy got himself into a hitter's count by taking the first two pitches for balls, then turned on a 95 mile per hour heater from Ramirez and launched it into the left field bleachers. The tater was Baltimore's fourth of the afternoon, as Adam Jones, Nelson Cruz and Steve Pearce had already gone deep, and gave them an insurance run over the Bombers. More importantly, the blast was Hardy's first since September 5th of last year, ending a span of 87 games and 360 plate appearances without a big fly.

With the weather warming and regression to the mean a near certainty, it won't take Hardy nearly as long to hit another.

The Great Tony Gwynn

Gwynn pictured here with his son, Tony Gwynn, Jr. (MSN FoxSports)

With today's passing of Tony Gwynn, the baseball community has lost one of its great all-time hitters. At 54 he was taken from us much too soon.

In a Hall of Fame career that spanned 20 seasons, Gwynn made his mark as one of the game's greatest pure hitters. Not just of his generation, but of all-time.

Though Gwynn's numbers were consistently excellent from start to finish (his OPS+ never fell below 105), his career can be neatly divided into two halves, with four batting titles in each and his age-30 season as the dividing line. In the first half he was like Ichiro Suzuki, winning batting titles, stealing bases, and earning Gold Gloves for his stellar defense in right field. Gwynn's first nine seasons, seven of which were full, match up closely with Ichiro's first seven in the United States.

Gwynn 1982-1990: 5,156 PA  1,531 H  2,021 TB  238 SB .329/.385/.435  38.2 bWAR
Suzuki 2001-2007:  5,180 PA  1,592 H  2,084 TB  272 SB .333/.379/.437  40.9 bWAR

In the second half Gwynn was still a great player, just different. Age, injuries, and an expanding waist-line slowed him down. His speed evaporated, and with it his defense and baserunning prowess. The Gold Gloves stopped coming--he won his fifth and final at 31--and his days of prolific stolen base totals were over.

Gwynn 1991-2001: 5,076 PA  1,610 H  2,238 TB  81 SB .347/.392/.483  30.6 bWAR

His hitting, however, only got better. A career .327/.381/.433 hitter through age 32, he was a .358/.400/.500 hitter over his final nine seasons. He also ramped up his power, more than doubling his home run rate from one dinger every 96.6 at-bats to one every 47.2 at-bats. After hitting more than seven home runs only once in his first dozen seasons, Gwynn did so five times in his last six full seasons. In this regard he was like Paul Molitor, Ted Williams, and Barry Bonds--a terrific hitter to the end.

Another way Gwynn improved was by trimming his already anemic strikeout rate. He'd always been difficult to strike out, but fanning him became almost impossible during the second half of his career. Starting at age 30, Gwynn exceeded 20 strikeouts in a season only twice in his final 12 seasons, with 23 in 1990 and a whopping 28 in 1997, the year he set personal bests in doubles, home runs, RBI, and total bases. In his first nine seasons he whiffed a little more than 5.7 percent of the time, but from 1990-2001 he struck out in fewer than 3.9 percent of his at-bats.

Like all true masters of their craft, Gwynn only got better with experience. After his 54 game debut in 1982, Gwynn never again batted below .309, setting a National League record by bettering .300 in 19 consecutive seasons. As a hitter, he peaked in his mid-to-late 30s, when most players are on their way down. Over the five-year period from 1993 through 1997, when Gwynn was between 33 and 37, he had the most hits, highest average and third-most doubles in baseball. Gwynn batted .368/.412/.508, outhitting the next closest player (Mike Piazza) by 31 points as he ripped off four straight batting titles. His strong second act lifted his career average to .338, the highest of any player who debuted after 1940 and tied with Jesse Burkett and Nap Lajoie for 18th on the all-time list.

Gwynn, like Pete Rose and Rod Carew before him, made up for his lack of power with superb bat control and a knack for finding holes in the defense (or, in the words of Wee Willie Keeler, hitting 'em where they ain't). An elite contact hitter, he was an artist with the bat. His eight batting championships--only Ty Cobb won more--are a testament to that. He topped .370 three times, going as high as .394 in the strike-shortened 1994 campaign, and eclipsed .350 four other times. He collected 3,141 hits over his 20 seasons, 19th most all-time, and led the league seven times (surpassed only by Cobb's eight hit titles).

Though Gwynn never won a Most Valuable Player award or a World Series ring, he was not at a loss for hardware. A 15-time All-Star, the lifelong San Diego Padre (and greatest player in franchise history, I might add) represented the National League every year but one from 1984 through 1999. He received seven Silver Sluggers despite never hitting more than 17 home runs in any season. Like Wade Boggs, he was not a good defender when he first started, but worked hard to turn himself into an above average fielder. People noticed, and rewarded his efforts with five Gold Gloves.

Incredibly popular, Gwynn sailed into the Hall of Fame in 2007 alongside Cal Ripken Jr. with 97.6 percent of the vote, polling better than other all-time greats such as Rickey Henderson, Johnny Bench, Carl Yastrzemski, Mike Schmidt, and even the great Willie Mays. That goes to show just how well-liked and appreciated Gwynn was. Captain Video was more studious and serious about the craft of hitting than any player except Ted Williams, but unlike Williams knew where to draw the line. Gwynn was one of the nicest guys in the game and a true class act: friendly, jovial, always smiling.

So as tragic as Gwynn's premature passing from cancer is, it gives us reason to pause and reflect on his truly remarkable career. Given how highly respected he was during life, I have no doubts that Gwynn will continue to be appreciated and remembered fondly in death. Rest in Peace, Tony.

Rollins Rolling Towards Cooperstown

Rollins has steadily compiled numbers that rank among those of baseball's best shortstops

Now that Jimmy Rollins is the Phillies franchise hits leader (which is really quite impressive considering the team has been around in some capacity since 1883), people will inevitably begin to talk about his Hall of Fame chances. After all, the man he just passed, Mike Schmidt, was a first ballot Hall of Famer who sailed into Cooperstown with 96.5 percent of the vote in 1995, and their career averages are almost identical, with Rollins at .268 to Schmidt's .267.

But that's where the statistical similarities between the two end, and right now, at least, Rollins' Hall hopes don't look nearly so good. Based on bWAR, Rollins has never been the best player on his own team, let alone the league (his undeserved 2007 MVP award notwithstanding). His offense has been uneven over the course of his career, and his bat rates a hair below average when adjusted for league and park (97 OPS+, with more seasons below 100 than above it). He's yet to bat .300 in any season (and at this stage of his career, probably never will) or post an OBP above .350. He falls short by JAWs, Black Ink, Gray Ink, Hall of Fame Standards, and Hall of Stats, and just barely qualifies by Hall of Fame monitor. With only three All-Star game appearances, one Silver Slugger, one World Series ring, one top-nine MVP finish and 43.6 career bWAR to his name, Rollins neither looks nor smells like a Hall of Famer, something his .268/.328/.425 seems to confirm. His most similar batter, Ray Durham, just fell off the ballot on his first try.

And yet, part of me thinks Rollins has been underappreciated by baseball fans outside Philadelphia. Here's a guy who comes to play everyday, and when the season's over you look up and realize that he stroked 35-40 doubles, swiped 30 or 40-odd bases, blasted 10-20 homers, and collected a good number of hits and runs. Combined with great defense at a premium position (four Gold Gloves), that's pretty valuable. Since 2000 Rollins has compiled more WAR than any shortstop not named Derek Jeter (omitting Alex Rodriguez, who moved to third base after 2003). He ranks as baseball's 16th most valuable position player during that span, with more fWAR than Matt Holliday, Torii Hunter, Vladimir Guerrero, Joe Mauer David Ortiz, and one-time teammate Bobby Abreu. Rollins is also the only National League shortstop to be named MVP in the past 18 seasons, and he's the only shortstop ever with more than 200 home runs and 400 stolen bases.

Which is weird because I feel like when people think of the best shortstops of the past 15 years, Rollins' name rarely comes to mind. I'd wager a bet that most fans wouldn't have him in their top-three, or probably even their top five. I'd imagine Jeter tops everyone's list, and is followed in some order by Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Michael Young, Miguel Tejada, and Rollins.

But because of Rollins's durability and longevity (ten seasons with at least 154 games played and a dozen with over 600 plate appearances), his counting numbers are better than all of them (except Jeter) and numerous other shortstops that came before him. J-Roll has scored more runs than Joe Cronin and Ozzie Smith, clubbed more doubles than Luke Appling, and compiled more base knocks than Pee Wee Reese. He's also hit more home runs than Barry Larkin and Alan Trammell (his second and fourth-best comps, respectively), and stolen more bases than Jeter and Omar Vizquel.  His rate stats aren't great, though his .753 OPS isn't far off from Robin Yount's .772 mark

When all is said and done, Rollins could rank within the top-ten all-time among shortstops in runs scored (he needs 130, or about two more decent seasons, to get there). He's already eighth in doubles with 466 and only needs three more to pass Tejada. Similarly he needs just four home runs to pass Rico Petrocelli at 210 and break into the top ten. 2,500 hits would put him in the top-12, and 2,600 would vault him into the top ten.

So while Rollins isn't Hall of Fame worthy quite yet, he's going to be an interesting candidate if he keeps climbing the leaderboards over the next few years. Assuming he winds up with around 2,500 hits, 500 doubles, 1,400 runs, 250 homers, 500 steals, and 1,000 RBI, the switch-hitting speedster will have a diverse statistical portfolio unlike that of any other shortstop that would seem to merit indeuction. At 35 he still has a few more years in front of them, years that will make or break his Cooperstown case. If he falls apart next year and is forced to retire, I don't think he makes it in. But if he has a couple more solid seasons and hangs around until his 40th birthday like Jeter, then his career numbers are going to be too impressive to overlook.