Boston Blasts Blue Jays

Papi paced Boston's big win with a pair of two-run homers (Boston Globe)

For the first time this summer, it feels good to be a Red Sox fan. Not only have they won eight of their past nine to climb out of last place (however temporarily), but they’ve outscored their opponents 22-2 over their last three games. The pitching’s been untouchable and the offense, sparked by rookie call-ups such as Christian Vazquez and Mookie Betts, has finally come around. After a listless half of baseball, the Red Sox seem to be kicking it into high gear with the threat of a possible trade deadline roster shakeup hanging over their heads.

After sweeping Kansas City at home over the weekend, the defending champs kicked off their ten-game road trip in Toronto with a smashing 14-1 victory. A season’s worth of frustrations came pouring out at the Rogers Centre last night as the Red Sox steamrolled the Blue Jays in what was easily the former's most convincing win of the season. 

The floodgates opened after a scoreless first inning with Boston grabbing a quick 2-0 lead in the second behind run-scoring singles from Stephen Drew and Vazquez. In the third they strung together five two-out hits, the last an RBI double by Jackie Bradley, Jr. that chased Toronto starter Drew Hutchison from the game. The Blue Jays got one back in the bottom half of the frame with consecutive doubles from Erik Kratz and Juan Francisco, but John Lackey settled down to induce three straight groundouts, the last two of which were hit right back to him for easy outs.

The Red Sox continued their onslaught in the fourth against Brad Mills, who was brought in to put out the fire but instead proceeded to toss gasoline all over it. With Brock Holt on second via a leadoff double, David Ortiz took Mills deep for the 452nd home run of his career, tying another legendary Red Sox hitter by the name of Carl Yastrzemski (you may have heard of him) on the all-time list.

Big Papi, who has more home runs at the Rogers Centre than any active player besides Alex Rodriguez, would pass Yaz his next time up, drilling another two-run shot off Mills (again with Holt on base) the very next inning. By that point Boston's lead had swelled to 13-1, and they still weren't done. Mike Napoli followed up Ortiz's blast with one of his own, forcing John Gibbons to mercifully remove Mills from the game. Mills' stat line: seven hits (including three homers) and eight earned runs in two ugly innings. Poor Mills couldn’t catch a break; the Red Sox feasted on his fastball, pounding his every mistake like it was batting practice.

Boston battered Toronto pitching for a season-high 14 runs and 18 hits, four of which cleared the fences and four more landed for doubles. Napoli, Daniel Nava and Xander Bogaerts all went 3-for-5 while Holt, Ortiz, Bradley, and Stephen Drew recorded two hits apiece (Vazquez had the other and Dustin Pedroia/Jonny Gomes combined to go 0-for-5 out of the two-hole). Yes, even the slumping Stephen Drew got in on the action, slugging his third home run of the season and first since the Fourth of July.

Oh, and did I mention that John Lackey was wonderful? Pitchers are always forgotten in slugfests such as these, but Lackey was truly terrific in his first start of the second half. Goofy run support aside, Lackey earned his 11th win of the season by going seven innings, allowing only one run and two Blue Jays to reach base (the back-to-back doubles by Kratz and Francisco). With no walks and only 76 pitches through six, he likely would have gone the distance had the score not been so lopsided.

Boston will look to make it nine out of ten tonight with Jake Peavy, who could desperately use a win, on the mound. The Blue Jays, 13-25 since June 7th, will try to stop their skid with J.A. Happ on the hill. Happ, a lefty with an ERA just under five, has to be an inviting target for the Sox, who've hit considerably better against southpaws with a .714 OPS against them compared to .698 versus righties. 

Drew Returns

Drew rejoins a Red Sox team that needs him now more than ever (Boston Herald)

Seven months after rejecting Boston's qualifying offer, Stephen Drew is a Red Sock once again.

Drew, who was reportedly eyeing a multi-year deal, instead settled for a one-year, $10.2 million contract that nearly matches the one he signed with Boston a year and a half ago.

Much has changed since then. The Red Sox bounced back from a 93-loss season to win the World Series, and Drew re-established himself as one of baseball's better shortstops after struggling with injuries in 2011 and 2012. Though Drew struggled mightily in the postseason, John Farrell stuck with him because of his plus defense and was rewarded with terrific glovework from J.D. Drew's little brother.

Less than two weeks after helping Boston win its third championship of the millennium, Drew was a free agent. The Red Sox, with Xander Bogaerts lined up to inherit his job, did not make much of an effort to bring Drew back and seemed ready to move on without him in 2014.

But there was a surprising lack of interest in Drew, largely because any team that signed him would have to forfeit a draft pick to Boston. So even though several teams (the Mets, Yankees, Tigers specifically) had a clear need at shortstop, they entered the season without even making Drew so much as an offer. It appeared that he would have to wait until after the MLB Amateur Draft in early June to land a deal.

That allowed the Sox to swoop in and sign the 31 year-old two weeks before the draft. All it took was a pro-rated version of qualifying offer, which Drew wished he'd accepted in the first place as he began the season without a home. It seems strange to me that he would sign now, when he probably could have fetched more money (and another year, probably) had Scott Boras made him wait just two more weeks. Not only did the Red Sox get a great deal, but they also kept him away from teams that needed him more than they did.

But make no mistake; Boston needs Drew. He joins a team that is sinking fast and growing desperate for someone to light a spark under them. They need someone who can stretch out the lineup and play solid defense, and Drew does both of those things.

He isn't going save the Red Sox season by himself, but he does make them better. His  return bumps Bogaerts to third base, which upgrades the defense at short and improves the offense at third by taking at-bats away from replacement level-Brock Holt (and probably Will Middlebrooks when he returns from the DL). Drew's going to need some time in the minors to face live pitching, but still has enough time to add two or three wins to the Red Sox by himself, assuming he plays at the level he did last year.

That's not going to matter much if they keep wallowing below .500, but it's a start.

Drew Plays Waiting Game

Drew was great in 2013. So why can't he find a home? (Boston Herald)

Somehow Stephen Drew, one of the best remaining free agents, still hasn't found a home for 2014. A strong defensive shortstop who can also hit pretty well shouldn't still be searching for a job. Drew was the league's fourth-best shortstop last year per fWAR, and a top-ten one overall. You can't tell me that none of the 30 teams out there have a want or need for an asset like that.

So what could be dissuading teams from signing J.D. Drew's kid brother? Could it be age? He'll be 31 on Opening Day, which might be scaring teams away from offering him a multi-year deal. But that shouldn't be an issue, really, considering how good Drew was at age 30.

Is it his injury history then? Drew did miss an entire season's worth of games with a fractured ankle in 2011 and '12, plus 38 more in 2013 as he suffered a concussion and strained thigh. Still, he rebounded with a (mostly) healthy and productive 2013. Adjusted for league and park, Drew was approximately ten percent better than average with the stick which, combined with his stellar defense, made him worth more than three wins.

Perhaps teams were discouraged by his dismal postseason, one in which he collected just six hits in 54 at-bats (a run of futility that spawned the creation of this awesome Twitter account). Drew was dreadful in October, but it's important to remember that 54 at-bats is an awfully small sample size and shouldn't be given too much weight, especially since most of those ABs came against elite hurlers such as David Price, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez, and Adam Wainwright.

It seems the biggest factor keeping teams away is that Drew will cost whoever signs him a compensatory draft pick because he declined Boston's one-year, $14.1 million qualifying offer at the beginning of the offseason. He and his agent, Scott Boras, had a more lucrative multi-year deal in mind, which was perfectly reasonable given that Jhonny Peralta procured $52 million over four years from the St. Louis Cardinals. Money was flying like crazy, and Drew seemed due for a windfall.

But six weeks has passed since then, and in that time it appears the interest in Drew has gone down. His asking price isn't out of the question, but nobody wants to give away young talent. Still, losing a draft pick that probably won't pan out anyways shouldn't be the end-all, be-all. Drew, an established shortstop with a couple of All-Star caliber seasons under his belt, is absolutely worth it.

So with the Mets and Yankees pursuing other options (Ruben Tejada and a Derek Jeter/Brendan Ryan combo, respectively) for now, Drew could very well end up returning to Boston. If he does, that would likely move Xander Bogaerts to third base and put Will Middlebrooks out of a job. But playing on a reduced deal for the Red Sox seems like a last resort for Drew, who still has another six weeks to go before Spring Training begins. As he showed with Prince Fielder in 2012 and Kyle Lohse in 2013, Boras has the patience to wait out the market and ultimately get his client the money he deserves.

So don't expect Drew to settle for a one-year deal anytime soon. He's worth more than that, and Boras knows it. It's only a matter of time before he convinces a GM (probably not Ben Cherington) to open his wallet and give Drew the dollars and years he deserves.

Dumb Diamondbacks

Kennedy is the latest Diamondback to be traded for pennies on the dollar

The two most notable trades leading up to an otherwise quiet trading deadline involved starting pitchers not named Cliff Lee. The first had Jake Peavy changing Sox (from white to red). The second was consummated between divisional rivals--the Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Diego Padres--sending Ian Kennedy from the former to the latter.

Since I already analyzed the Peavy trade in this space last week, I wanted to breakdown the Kennedy trade while it was still fresh. My first impression is that it's a curious move for the Diamondbacks, who led the NL West for most of the summer before slipping behind the hard-charging Los Angeles Dodgers (cue Yasiel Puig highlights). Arizona's fighting to stay above .500 at the moment, but they're still within striking distance of first and could feasibly make a run down the stretch. So why trade Kennedy, a sturdy starter who takes the ball every fifth day, when it's common knowledge that one can never have too much pitching?

The explanation is quite simple, really. Arizona's GM Kevin Towers has a history of trading away young, struggling talent. In fact, this trade makes four times in the past year that Towers has sold low. Let's take a look.

Stephen Drew: traded to Oakland on 8/20/12
J.D. Drew's kid  brother was one of the National League's top shortstops before a fractured ankle took him out of commission for 11 months. When he returned midway through the 2012 season--his walk year--he clearly wasn't the same player. He was still shaking off the rust off when the Diamondbacks traded him to Oakland on August 20th.  Though he was batting below .200 at the time, Drew bounced back in September, helping the A's stun Texas and win the division on the season's final day. Billy Beane gave Arizona Sean Jamieson, a 24 year-old who's yet to play a single game above Single-A. Rather than deal a slumping, rehabbing Drew, Towers should have held on to Drew and let him recoup some of his lost value. The Diamondbacks weren't in contention last year anyways, so what was the harm in letting Drew play out the string and seeing if he could rediscover his stroke? Had he continued to flail, then nobody would have thought twice about letting him go as a free agent.

Trevor Bauer: traded to Cleveland on 12/11/12
Arizona's first round selection (third overall) in the 2011 draft pitched all of 16 innings in his lone season with the D-Backs before he was sent packing to Cleveland in a three-way trade that acquired Drew's replacement, Didi Gregorius. Gregorius has been solid, but his ceiling is nowhere near as high as Bauer's. The future ace has yet to take off, but he's just 22 and still has plenty of time to figure it out. Even if he never pans out, I would much rather roll the dice with the next Tim Lincecum rather than settling for a competent but unspectacular shortstop.

Justin Upton: traded to Atlanta on 1/24/13
The Diamondbacks were downright foolish to move B.J. Upton's younger brother, whom they still controlled through 2015. Frustrated by his inconsistency, attitude problems and inability to realize his massive potential, they gave up on him after a down 2012. Towers could have and should have been able to get more for a budding superstar than two complementary players (Martin Prado and Randall Delgado) packaged together with three so-so prospects. The result has been a punchless Diamondbacks outfield that's slugged just .383 with 25 home runs. Upton has 20 by himself. He should be hitting in front of Paul Goldschmidt instead of playing in the same outfield with his older brother and Jason Heyward.

Ian Kennedy: traded to San Diego on 7/31/13
Once a treasure of the Yankees farm system, Kennedy was dealt to Arizona after the 2009 season as part of the three-way trade that put Curtis Granderson in pinstripes and sent Max Scherzer to Detroit. Two years later, he emerged as one of baseball's best starting pitchers when he won 21 games and finished fourth in the NL Cy Young race. While that superlative season now appears to be a fluke, he's still a durable starting pitcher who should approach or exceed 200 innings pitched for the fourth consecutive year. And yet, all Towers could fetch for him was a prospect and a lefty reliever (Joe Thatcher). Granted, teams aren't lining up for someone with an ERA over five, but Kennedy's 4.29 xFIP and strand rate suggest that luck was not on his side. He's not as bad as his year-to-date numbers suggest. With regression to the mean and some assistance from PetCo Park, he should be able to turn his year around. Expect a second-half resurgence similar to the one Josh Beckett enjoyed with the Dodgers last summer.

In an alternate reality where Towers didn't make these trades, it's quite possible that Arizona would still be sitting atop the NL West, or at least giving LA a run for their money. Instead, the D-Backs are fading fast. When October comes around they'll be on the outside looking in, giving their fans plenty of time to ponder what might have been.