How Greinke Got (Over-) Paid

Greinke's LA numbers were better even though he stayed the same (Yahoo Sports)

When Zack Greinke signed his six-year, $147 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers after the 2012 season, he became the highest-paid pitcher in baseball history in terms of annual salary. Now, after opting out of that deal and inking an even bigger one with the Arizona Diamondbacks, he’s the highest-paid player in baseball history in terms of annual salary.

How did Greinke get the same contract length and $60 million more at 32 than he he did at 29? By stringing together three straight dominant seasons in Los Angeles, the last of which was easily the best of his career and, in a normal year, would have earned him his second Cy Young. Greinke’s timing was impeccable, as he hit the open market after posting the lowest ERA (1.66) in 20 years and leading the majors in WHIP (0.84), winning percentage (.864), pitcher WAR (as calculated by Baseball-Reference), and ERA+ (225). His two years before that weren’t too shabby, either, as he posted sub-three ERAs and drew Cy Young votes both years.

But were his last three campaigns really that much better than the three that preceded his Dodgers contract? It depends which stats you use:

2010-2012: 41-25 W-L 3.83 ERA (106 ERA+) 1.22 WHIP .248 BA 8.4 bWAR

2013-2015: 51-15 W-L 2.30 ERA (156 ERA+) 1.03 WHIP .219 BA 17.5 bWAR

By traditional metrics, Greinke was a much better pitcher from ages 29-31 than he was from 26-28, which are supposed to be a player’s prime years. His ERA was a run and a half lower in the same number of innings, which explains why his bWAR more than doubled (B-R bases pitcher WAR off ERA and innings pitched). He won more games, lost fewer, and improved his WHIP and opponent batting average considerably.

Advanced metrics tell another story. Let’s start by looking at the two things pitchers can control, strikeouts and walks. I don’t include home runs because those are heavily influenced by park factors, temperature, air density, wind currents, and a bunch of other things beyond a pitcher’s sphere of influence:

2010-2012: 23.3 K% 6.2 BB%

2013-2015: 23.3 K% 5.4 BB%

Greinke’s strikeout rate remained identical, which one would expect given that nobody gains velocity as they get older. His walk rate improved a bit, which works out to be one fewer walk every two or three starts — hardly a big difference in the grand scheme of things.

People also believe pitchers have control over the type of hits they allow. Has Greinke’s distribution of batted balls become more favorable?

2010-2012: 20.3% LD 47.4% GB 32.3% FB 7.9 % IFFB

2013-2015: 21.8% LD 47.5% GB 30.8% FB 11.1% IFFB

Not really. Greinke’s groundball rate stayed the same, and he offset an increase in line drives with an increase in pop-ups. It’s weird that his line-drive rate went up, seeing as how he induced more soft contact and less hard contact over the past three years:

2010-2012: Soft 17.0% Med 54.7 % Hard 28.3%

2013-2015: Soft 19.3% Med 53.3% Hard 27.6%

Again, not much change, though there is some indication that he’s gotten better at generating weaker contact. Not enough to radically improve his results, mind you, or significantly alter his BABiP (keep that in mind for a minute).

While his ERA doesn’t reflect his stable peripherals, his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA do.

2010-2012: 3.16 FIP 3.17 xFIP 3.26 SIERA

2013-2015: 2.97 FIP 3.12 xFIP 3.23 SIERA

As you can see, fielding-independent metrics support the information above, suggesting Greinke was essentially the same pitcher over the past six years.

So why, then, are his Dodgers numbers so much shinier? Moving to Dodger Stadium (where he has a 2.00 career ERA) and a weaker division gave him a boost. Leaving behind a god-awful defense in Milwaukee helped. Having a better bullpen behind him didn’t hurt.

But also, a lot of it was just pure luck. Greinke was fairly unlucky in the three years before coming to Los Angeles, only to become one of the most fortunate pitchers in baseball during his time with the Dodgers. Greinke had the highest strand rate in baseball over the last three years, but from 2010-2012 he had one of the worst. Dodger Stadium and superior defense also helped him on balls in play. From 2010-2012, only Justin Masterson had a higher BABiP among pitchers who threw at least 600 innings. Over the last three years, however, Greinke had the third-lowest BABiP at .271 — roughly 30 points below the league average.

Greinke also had better luck on balls not in play, as in home runs. His HR/FB% dropped almost a full percentage point, which is substantial considering the league average is around 10% (Greinke’s mark from 2010-2012). Accordingly, his HR/9 rate improved by 16 percent. That works out to be only a handful of homers per season, but those long balls can make a serious dent in a pitcher’s ERA if they come with multiple guys on base.

Taking all this into consideration, Greinke is not a better pitcher now than he was three years ago. His park, fielders, and bullpen have made him look like a better pitcher, as has better luck, but at his core he’s the same guy. Here’s one more figure to prove it:

2010-2012: 13.6 fWAR (8th in pitcher fWAR)

2013-2015: 13.6 fWAR (8th in pitcher fWAR)

Greinke is getting paid to be the best pitcher in baseball, even though he’s not. After a few starts in the Arizona heat, that should become abundantly clear.

Boston Bolsters Rotation Via Trades

Miley makes Boston's rotation marginally better (ESPN)

The Red Sox moved quickly after missing out on Jon Lester, pulling off a pair of trades that will bring starting pitchers Wade Miley and Rick Porcello to Boston. While neither are anywhere near Lester's caliber, both are younger and just as durable. They're quality major league arms that make Boston's rotation more formidable.

The Miley trade was consummated first, sending Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa, the pitching prospects acquired in Boston's 2012 blockbuster trade with the Dodgers, to Arizona. Webster, 24, has failed to impress at the major league level with a 6.25 ERA, 5.08 FIP, and 1.58 WHIP in 19 big league appearances (18 starts). Clearly the Red Sox did not like what they saw from last summer's audition and felt it was time to move on.

De La Rosa, 25, showed flashes of dominance but has been wildly inconsistent in his major league career, yielding a 4.34 ERA and 1.46 WHIP across 174 and 1/3 innings. Like Felix Doubront, he hasn't been able to translate his great stuff into steady success. Boston was wise to move both while they were still young and raw enough to command some value on the trade market. Each still has the potential to develop into a quality major league starter some day, albeit probably at the back end of someone's rotation. Perhaps they're destined to be bullpen guys. Either way, it seems highly unlikely that Boston just traded away a couple of aces in the making.

Miley's by no means an ace, either, but has been solid since debuting in 2011. He holds a 3.79 career ERA (103 ERA+) equal to his FIP, meaning his results are in line with his skills. He's gone downhill since making the All-Star team and finishing second in the 2012 NL Rookie of the Year voting to Bryce Harper, however, but still made 33 starts and topped 200 innings in each of the past two years with a 3.98 FIP each year. He's also lefthanded, which is a plus for a team that was counting on Lester's return but could spell trouble whenever he toes the rubber in Fenway Park. Good thing he's generated ground balls on more than half the balls he's allowed in play over the past two years.

As if moving to the Fenway and the American League isn't scary enough, the trends in his peripherals are positively frightening. His home run, walk, and hit rates have gone up since 2012, causing his WHIP to jump from 1.18 to 1.32 to 1.40. His ERA has risen more than a full run as he's gone from a solidly above average pitcher to a solidly below average one. At 28, he's an innings eater with little upside, as whatever bounce back potential he has will likely be offset by his transition to the AL East. At least he's under team control for three more years, which gives him a bit of re-sale value should he flop in his Red Sox debut.

Porcello will pitch for Boston in 2015 (HardballTalk)

Porcello, another ground ball pitcher, appears to be the better get here. Boston dealt Yoenis Cespedes to Detroit for him, fulfilling the Tigers' need for a right fielder in the wake of Torii Hunter's departure (three minor leaguers were also involved, two leaving Boston and one from Detroit). Like Cespedes, Porcello will be a free agent next winter, which means the Red Sox probably won't be committed to him beyond 2015.

Unlike Miley, the soon-to-be 26 year-old has become a better pitcher in recent years. His ERA has improved every year since 2010 and so has his ERA+. Last year was the best of Porcello's six-year career, resulting in a career-high 15 wins, 204 and 2/3 innings, 3.43 ERA, 116 ERA+, and 1.23 WHIP, not to mention his major league leading three shutouts (tied with Henderson Alvarez and Adam Wainwright). He probably won't replicate those numbers pitching half his games at Fenway Park next year, but should be good for around 180 league average innings.

His ability to do that over the course of his career has been surprisingly valuable. Despite a career 4.30 ERA (98 ERA+), he's been worth at least 1.7 fWAR every year and at least 2.6 in each of his last four, meaning his floor is pretty high. Seeing as how 2015 is his final arbitration year, he won't come cheap, but at least he'll stabilize Boston's rotation and be a reliable starter every fifth day. Like Miley, he's predominately a ground-ball pitcher who shouldn't suffer too much at Fenway's friendly confines and will benefit away from Detriot's abysmal infield defense (though I'm not sure Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez/Xander Bogaerts on the left side is much better). He also has postseason experience, having pitched for Detroit's division-winning ballclubs in the past.

While these moves fill out the back of Boston's rotation beyond Clay Buchholz and Joe Kelly, they still leave the Red Sox in need of an ace. Max Scherzer and James Shields are still available if Boston's open to reinvesting the money they planned to give Lester, or package some of their many prospects for Mat Latos or Cole Hamels. Either way the price is going to be steep, but the Red Sox must land one of those guys in order to contend next year.

Boston's rotation looks considerably better than it did yesterday, but there is still work to be done.

Commemorating Chavez

Over the summer, at the height of Derek Jeter's much-ballyhooed retirement tour, Eric Chavez quietly retired, bringing an end to his 17-year major league career. While age and injuries reduced Chavez to a part-time player during the second half of his career, it's important to remember just how good he was during the first half. Had he just been able to stay healthy, his resume would probably be Hall of Fame worthy. As it is, it resembles something of a poor man's Scott Rolen; strong defense at third base complemented by good power and on-base ability, but a boatload of injuries later in the career. Rolen also happens to be Chavez's most similar batter through age 30, not surprisingly.

Drafted out of high school by the Oakland A's with the 10th pick of the 1996 draft, Chavez made his major league debut two years later. The year after that, he was Oakland's everyday third baseman. After a solid showing as a rookie, Chavez broke out in 2000 with 26 dingers and an .850 OPS, beginning a run of seven straight 20-homer seasons. He would max out at 34 in 2002, the year he won his only Silver Slugger and netted his highest MVP finish (14th) as part of the famed "Moneyball" A's squad. He produced nearly identical numbers the following year, led the league in walks with 95 in 2004, and enjoyed his fourth 100 RBI season in 2005. 2006 marked a bit of a decline for Chavez, as his average tumbled to .241, but he still posted a .351 OBP, smacked 22 home runs, and won his sixth straight Gold Glove.

Because he was basically replacement level for the last eight years of his career, I don't think people remember or appreciate just how good Chavez was at his peak. He was the American League's answer to Scott Rolen. From 2000 through 2005, when he averaged 30 homers and 98 RBI per year while winning five Gold Gloves, he was practically even in terms of value with Manny Ramirez and ahead of guys like Derek Jeter, Carlos Beltran, Miguel Tejada, Carlos Delgado, and Sammy Sosa. He never had that one monster MVP-caliber season or even made an All-Star team, but consistently stayed in the five-win range for half a decade. Had he been able to do that through the rest of the decade into his early 30s, would be discussing his Hall chances right now.

Because through 2006, his age-28 season, Chavez had already piled up 1,143 hits, 245 doubles, 212 home runs, 716 RBI, and 2,060 total bases. His 32.5 fWAR were within one of Chipper Jones at the same age and within two of Wade Boggs and Brooks Robinson. His 212 long balls ranked eighth of all third sackers through age 28, ahead of Dick Allen, Jim Thome, and Mike Schmidt, among others. His 716 RBI were seventh. And with six Gold Gloves already under his belt, Chavez appeared well on his way to Cooperstown.

Then, injuries. First it was debilitating back pain, followed later on by crippling knee ailments. After averaging 144 games per year from 1999 through 2006, Chavez never again played more than 115 games in a season. He played 90 games in 2007, 23 the year after that, and just eight in 2009. In 2010, his 13th and final year with Oakland, he suited up for only 33 games. His performance declined steadily during that time as various injuries took their toll. Worse, he became an enormous bust for the A's, collecting $45 million in player salaries over those final four years in Oakland, during which time he contributed -0.3 fWAR, damning him for all eternity as one of Billy Beane's worst investments.

Those four lost prime years effectively murdered whatever chance Chavez had the Hall, but incredibly they did not end his career. The Yankees, seeking backup for an aging Alex Rodriguez, scooped him up at a bargain bin price. Chavez was a non-factor in his first season with the Bronx (2011) but enjoyed a resurgent 2012 with 16 homers and an .845 OPS in 113 games. Chavez moved on to Arizona following New York's LCS elimination and continued to hit well there in spite of his old age, putting up an .810 OPS at age 35 and .795 at 36.

It was somewhat surprising, then, that Chavez retired midway through last season on July 30th. But the Diamondbacks were going nowhere and a knee injury had forced him to the disabled list. At 36, he was all done fighting his way back from injuries, so he forfeited the $1 million remaining on his contract and went home.

It's a shame we'll never know what Chavez would have accomplished had he stayed healthy. He was on track to be one of the 15, maybe even 10-best third basemen ever, at least on par with Rolen, Ken Boyer, and Ron Santo. Based on his early career trajectory, Chavez probably would have reached benchmarks such as 300 home runs and 2,000 hits, and may have added a few more Gold Gloves as well. As it is, his six Gold Gloves are tied with Buddy Bell and Robin Ventura for fourth-most all-time among third basemen, behind only Brooks Robinson, Mike Schmidt, and Rolen. His career .970 fielding percentage is the fifth-highest at the position.

Chavez is not a Hall of Famer, but for awhile he played like one. It's just too bad things didn't turn out differently, because by all accounts he was one of the game's classier, most respected players. Nobody deserves to have their career ravaged by injuries, but Chavez especially.

Kershaw King of Opening Day

Kershaw was masterful in his first start of the 2014 season (NESN)

Clayton Kershaw asserted his dominance throughout yesterday's season opener in Australia. Kershaw, the reigning NL Cy Young winner and now the most expensive pitcher in baseball history, stymied the Arizona Diamondbacks with six and two-thirds innings of one-run. The lefty was in top form, surrendering just five hits--only one of which went for extra bases (a Paul Goldschmidt double)--and one walk while fanning seven. It didn't hurt that LA put three runs on the board for him relatively early, thanks to Andre Ethier's RBI groundout and Scott Van Slyke's two-run bomb (both of which scored Adrian Gonzalez).

Wade Miley, while repsectable in his own right (three runs and eight K's in five innings), was no match for baseball's top hurler. Arizona's bullpen kept Los Angeles at bay over the final four frames, but the D-Backs were unable to mount a comeback. Chris Perez, new setup man Brian Wilson and killer closer Kenley Jensen allowed no hits in relief of Kershaw, thereby suffocating any hopes for an Arizona rally.

The home team's lone run came in the bottom of the sixth, when Goldschmidt led off with a double and advanced to third on a wild pitch during Martin Prado's at-bat. Mark Trumbo, in his Diamondbacks debut, plated Goldschmidt by grounding out to second baseman Justin Turner.

But it was too little, too late for Arizona--held hitless in the final three innings. They'll look to get the bats going tonight against Hyun-jin Ryu, who's making the first start of his sophomore season. The D-Backs hope to get their first win of 2014 behind Trevor Cahill, who needs to put a rough spring training behind him.

Dumb Diamondbacks

Kennedy is the latest Diamondback to be traded for pennies on the dollar

The two most notable trades leading up to an otherwise quiet trading deadline involved starting pitchers not named Cliff Lee. The first had Jake Peavy changing Sox (from white to red). The second was consummated between divisional rivals--the Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Diego Padres--sending Ian Kennedy from the former to the latter.

Since I already analyzed the Peavy trade in this space last week, I wanted to breakdown the Kennedy trade while it was still fresh. My first impression is that it's a curious move for the Diamondbacks, who led the NL West for most of the summer before slipping behind the hard-charging Los Angeles Dodgers (cue Yasiel Puig highlights). Arizona's fighting to stay above .500 at the moment, but they're still within striking distance of first and could feasibly make a run down the stretch. So why trade Kennedy, a sturdy starter who takes the ball every fifth day, when it's common knowledge that one can never have too much pitching?

The explanation is quite simple, really. Arizona's GM Kevin Towers has a history of trading away young, struggling talent. In fact, this trade makes four times in the past year that Towers has sold low. Let's take a look.

Stephen Drew: traded to Oakland on 8/20/12
J.D. Drew's kid  brother was one of the National League's top shortstops before a fractured ankle took him out of commission for 11 months. When he returned midway through the 2012 season--his walk year--he clearly wasn't the same player. He was still shaking off the rust off when the Diamondbacks traded him to Oakland on August 20th.  Though he was batting below .200 at the time, Drew bounced back in September, helping the A's stun Texas and win the division on the season's final day. Billy Beane gave Arizona Sean Jamieson, a 24 year-old who's yet to play a single game above Single-A. Rather than deal a slumping, rehabbing Drew, Towers should have held on to Drew and let him recoup some of his lost value. The Diamondbacks weren't in contention last year anyways, so what was the harm in letting Drew play out the string and seeing if he could rediscover his stroke? Had he continued to flail, then nobody would have thought twice about letting him go as a free agent.

Trevor Bauer: traded to Cleveland on 12/11/12
Arizona's first round selection (third overall) in the 2011 draft pitched all of 16 innings in his lone season with the D-Backs before he was sent packing to Cleveland in a three-way trade that acquired Drew's replacement, Didi Gregorius. Gregorius has been solid, but his ceiling is nowhere near as high as Bauer's. The future ace has yet to take off, but he's just 22 and still has plenty of time to figure it out. Even if he never pans out, I would much rather roll the dice with the next Tim Lincecum rather than settling for a competent but unspectacular shortstop.

Justin Upton: traded to Atlanta on 1/24/13
The Diamondbacks were downright foolish to move B.J. Upton's younger brother, whom they still controlled through 2015. Frustrated by his inconsistency, attitude problems and inability to realize his massive potential, they gave up on him after a down 2012. Towers could have and should have been able to get more for a budding superstar than two complementary players (Martin Prado and Randall Delgado) packaged together with three so-so prospects. The result has been a punchless Diamondbacks outfield that's slugged just .383 with 25 home runs. Upton has 20 by himself. He should be hitting in front of Paul Goldschmidt instead of playing in the same outfield with his older brother and Jason Heyward.

Ian Kennedy: traded to San Diego on 7/31/13
Once a treasure of the Yankees farm system, Kennedy was dealt to Arizona after the 2009 season as part of the three-way trade that put Curtis Granderson in pinstripes and sent Max Scherzer to Detroit. Two years later, he emerged as one of baseball's best starting pitchers when he won 21 games and finished fourth in the NL Cy Young race. While that superlative season now appears to be a fluke, he's still a durable starting pitcher who should approach or exceed 200 innings pitched for the fourth consecutive year. And yet, all Towers could fetch for him was a prospect and a lefty reliever (Joe Thatcher). Granted, teams aren't lining up for someone with an ERA over five, but Kennedy's 4.29 xFIP and strand rate suggest that luck was not on his side. He's not as bad as his year-to-date numbers suggest. With regression to the mean and some assistance from PetCo Park, he should be able to turn his year around. Expect a second-half resurgence similar to the one Josh Beckett enjoyed with the Dodgers last summer.

In an alternate reality where Towers didn't make these trades, it's quite possible that Arizona would still be sitting atop the NL West, or at least giving LA a run for their money. Instead, the D-Backs are fading fast. When October comes around they'll be on the outside looking in, giving their fans plenty of time to ponder what might have been.

Diamondbacks Defying the Odds

Somehow, someway, the plucky Arizona Diamondbacks are exceeding expectations

I'm not sure how they're doing it, but the Arizona Diamondbacks are sitting at the top of the National League West above the defending World Series champions. Chalk it up to grit, heart, and tenacity all you want, but this is not a new development: Arizona took over first place four weeks ago and hasn't relinquished it despite playing .500 ball over that stretch, which explains why they haven't been able to pad their cushion larger than 2.5 games.

Once again, the Diamondbacks have one of the better offenses in the National League, ranking second in doubles, third in walks, and fourth in runs. They've managed to scrape together runs by hitting well with runners on base (.765 OPS with men on versus .690 OPS with the sacks empty), overcoming injuries to and slumps by most of their key position players. Miguel Montero hasn't hit a lick. Aaron Hill hasn't played since April 14th because of a strained left wrist. Cliff Pennington is all glove and no stick. Martin Prado's been victimized by bad luck (.263 BABiP) and hasn't provided anything close to what Justin Upton has given the Atlanta Braves. Jason Kubel hit well in April but missed time and hasn't done much since. Cody Ross has disappointed after signing a three-year, $26 million deal last winter. A.J. Pollock makes too many outs and produces all of his value with defense.

So where is the scoring coming from? Let's start with NL RBI leader Paul Goldschmidt, who's evolved into one of the best hitters in baseball. Goldy's mashed all year long and finds himself at the center of MVP discussions. The teammate he's driven in most often is leadoff hitter Gerardo Parra. Perhaps the best defensive outfielder around, Parra leads the Senior Circuit in doubles and has been the league's second most valuable postition player (according to bWAR) behind only Carlos Gomez. Then there's rookie shortstop Didi Gregorius, who's batting over .300 and might end up stealing NL Rookie of the Year honors from Shelby Miller. Eric Chavez and Wil Nieves have been big coming off the bench, too.

Unlike most great teams, the Diamondbacks lack strong starting pitching. In fact, their rotation has been subpar (4.30 ERA) despite remaining healthy and receiving strong defense behind them. Sophomore Patrick Corbin, a Cy Young candidate, is the lone exception with his 9-0 record and 2.28 ERA, Trevor Cahill, the next best starter, has been merely average. Ian Kennedy keeps getting worse, making his stellar 2011 look more like a fluke with every passing start. Wade Miley has taken a massive step back after finishing second to Bryce Harper in last year's NL Rookie of the Year voting. Brandon McCarthy hasn't looked anything like the pitcher he was with Oakland the last two seasons. Perhaps time on the DL will do him some good, but he just hasn't been the same since taking a line drive to the head last year.

The bullpen, on the other hand, is one of baseball's best (3.04 ERA). Brad Ziegler, Matt Reynolds, Josh Collmenter,  and Will Harris have all been tremendous. Heath Bell's bounced back from a disastrous season with Miami, filling in for injured closer J.J. Putz. No wonder the D-Backs are 15-9 in one-run games.

A few months ago nobody thought the Diamondbacks would be where they are now. It's tough to see them holding up without adequate starting pitching, especially since Corbin and the bullpen are bound to regress at some point. It will help when the hitters get healthy and start producing like they can, but I still don't see Arizona winning the division. San Francisco's pitching is going to come around, and when it does the Giants will take their rightful place (as in first). Seeing as how San Francisco gets 10 straight games against the Padres, Marlins, and Dodgers starting on Monday, I expect them to overthrow the Diamondbacks by the end of June.

Justin Upton: Man on a Mission

Justin Upton is insanely, impossibly, ridiculously hot right now. He's so hot, in fact, that you can almost see the flames radiating from his bat every time he swings. His plate appearances have materialized into must-see TV.

After homering in both games of yesterday's doubleheader in Colorado, he now has 11 big flies on the young season. Nobody else has more than seven. He also has the highest slugging percentage (.813) and most total bases (61) of anyone in baseball. But since all but one of his dingers came with nobody on base, his power surge has produced just 16 RBI. For that he can blame Atlanta's table-setters--Andrelton Simmons and his big brother B.J. Upton--who have a combined OBP somewhere in the .250 range. Because of them, most times when the younger Upton digs in, the table is empty.

But a dearth of RBI opportunities hasn't stopped Upton from enjoying one of the best starts in baseball history. The Braves have gone along for the ride, jumping out to a 15-5 record and building a quick five game lead over the NL East, making their 25 year-old left fielder an early MVP favorite as well as a shoo-in to make his third All-Star team.

Out west, Upton's former employers have to be kicking themselves for trading him away when he was still under team control through 2015. Everyone could see the former first overall draft pick had this kind of superstar talent in him; he just needed time to mature. Now, he's growing up right before our eyes and is poised to become a major force for years to come. Three weeks into the season, it seems inevitable that future generations of baseball fans will look back on this trade the same way we disparage Boston's sale of Babe Ruth or the Reds' trading Frank Robinson.

More importantly, Upton's home run barrage merely reinforces what we knew three months ago; the Diamondbacks were dumb to trade Justin Upton.

NL West Preview

1st Place--Los Angeles Dodgers
2012 Record: 86-76
2012 Pythagorean: 86-76
2013 Projected: 93-69
Matt Kemp has an MVP-type season to lead an explosive Dodgers' lineup that gets nice bounceback years from Adrian Gonzalez and Hanley Ramirez. Clayton Kershaw continues drawing comparisons to Sandy Koufax, and Zack Greinke has his best season since winning the Cy Young in 2009. Josh Beckett can't be any worse than he was last year. The roster lacks depth, which means LA is particularly vulnerable to injuries, but I like their chances of winning the division.

2nd Place--San Francisco Giants
2012 Record: 94-68
2012 Pythagorean: 88-74
2013 Projected: 91-71
Buster Posey and Angel Pagan regress, but Pablo Sandoval stays healthy. Full seasons from Hunter Pence and Marco Scutaro help. Brandon Belt breaks out. Ryan Vogelsong's numbers take a hit, but Tim Lincecum's improve. The reigning World Series champs will be tough to beat, and it wouldn't surprise me if they beat out Los Angeles for the division crown again.

3rd Place--Arizona Diamondbacks
2012 Record: 81-81
2012 Pythagorean: 86-76
2013 Projected 85-77
It's already evident they made a massive mistake trading Justin Upton, but at least Martin Prado is a valuable player. Ian Kennedy improves on his disappointing 2012 to provide James Shields-esque production, and Paul Goldschmidt takes a big step forward. Aaron Hill proves last season's resurgence was for real. There's 90 win potential here if everything clicks.

4th Place--San Diego Padres
2012 Record: 76-86
2012 Pythagorean: 75-87
2013 Projected: 74-88
Chase Headley isn't going to be anything close to the MVP-caliber player he was in 2012. Cameron Maybin improves.

5th Place--Colorado Rockies
2012 Record: 64-98
2012 Pythagorean: 69-93
2013 Projected: 71-91
There's no pitching here, but the lineup sure can mash. Expect a big rebound year from Troy Tulowitzki and more good things from Dexter Fowler (the NL's Austin Jackson) and Carlos Gonzalez. Too bad Todd Helton's past his prime...

MLB Hot Stove Losers

With spring training here at last, it's time to reflect on another busy baseball offseason. Here's a look at the five biggest losers of the winter (in no particular order).

Miami Marlins
Traded away most of their established talent (Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson) and pissed off their franchise player, Giancarlo Stanton, in the process. Considering the Fish lost 93 games with that crew last year (plus Hanley Ramirez, Heath Bell, Omar Infante, and Anibal Sanchez), the Marlins are a lock to lose at least 100 games in 2013.

Kansas City Royals
The Royals haven't won in so long that they clearly have a misconception about what it means to "win now." It definitely doesn't mean signing innings-eaters Ervin Santana (5.16 ERA in 2012) and Jeremy Guthrie. It also doesn't mean trading away Wil Myers, the best hitter in the minor leagues last year, for a number two pitcher disguised as an ace (James Shields). Even with continued growth from young stars Salvador Perez, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, KC is a .500 team at best with almost no chance at contending for the second wild card. Don't be surprised if GM Dayton Moore is out of a job by this time next year.

New York Yankees
After getting wiped out by the Detroit Tigers in last fall's ALCS, the Yanks failed to do much this offseason besides get older. Squeezed by their commitment to getting their payroll below the luxury tax threshold of $189 million by next season, the typically free-spending Yankees restrained from handing out multi-year deals to any notable free agents. Brian Cashman was forced to pinch every penny, and what resulted was perhaps the quietest Yankee winter in recent memory. They picked up Kevin Youkilis to fill in for Alex Rodriguez at third, but Youk brings an injury-checkered past and eroding skills to the Big Apple. Instead of ponying up for Nick Swisher, they brought back a 39 year-old Ichiro Suzuki to man right field. Gone too is Rafael Soriano, an elite closer who stepped up when Mariano Rivera went down (though the 43 year-old Mo will be back, as will 40 year-old Andy Pettitte and 38 year-old Hiroki Kuroda). Russell Martin departed via free agency, leaving New York without an everyday backstop. Key role players Eric Chavez, Andruw Jones and Raul Ibanez--who combined for 49 home runs last year--are gone as well. Travis Hafner is an intriguing addition with that ballpark, but I'm not as enthusiastic about Dan Johnson, Matt Diaz and Juan Rivera. The Bronx Bombers enter 2013 loaded with question marks and will probably miss the playoffs for just the second time in the past 20 seasons.

Baltimore Orioles
If the O's think they can repeat last year's fluky success (93 wins with a +7 run differential), then they are sorely mistaken. After sitting on their hands this winter, they're doomed to crash and burn in 2013 when their good fortune runs out.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Made the biggest blunder of the offseason by trading Justin Upton, a potential MVP-in-the-making whom they still controlled for another three years, and Chris Johnson for Randall Delgado and Martin Prado. They gave up on B.J. Upton's little brother too early and should have been able to get a whole lot more in return than a pair of complementary players and three so-so prospects.