San Diego Signs Shields

Shields solidifies what was already a strong rotation in San Diego (Sports Talk Florida)

The San Diego Padres put the exclamation mark on their whirlwind offseason by landing big-name starting pitcher James Shields this week.

San Diego fetched Shields, the last remaining member of this winter's hallowed free agent starter trio, for considerably less than his asking price. Shields, 33, sought a five-year deal worth upwards of $100 million. When nobody ponied up for a pitcher on the wrong side of 30 who's logged more innings than anyone else over the last eight years, Shields was forced to settle for the more modest but still lucrative sum of approximately $75 million over four years.

I wouldn't have gone over nine figures for Shields (and am glad the Red Sox didn't), but that price is much more reasonable. Consider that Victor Martinez, a 36 year-old DH, got roughly the same deal (4/68), and Shields looks like a pretty good bargain, especially now that the former catcher just underwent knee surgery.

"Big Game James" looks like a steal compared to Jon Lester, who netted twice as much, and Max Scherzer, who tripled Shields's haul. Lester, who debuted alongside Shields in 2006, has outWAR'ed the latter by roughly six wins over the course of their careers, a difference of less than one win per season (in Lester's defense, though, he is two years younger, throws lefty, and has an actual track record of postseason success). Since 2008, when Scherzer came into the league, Shields has been only four and a half wins less valuable than the new National, which again works out to be less than a one win difference per season (though Scherzer won a Cy Young and is only 30). Shields is the worst and oldest of the three, but not substantially so, and I would have been thrilled if Cherington brought him to Boston at that price.

But it was San Diego who won the Shields sweepstakes and, in my opinion, the offseason. Remember the flurry of moves they made back in December? The Padres completely overhauled their offense by trading for Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Justin Upton, Derek Norris, and Will Middlebrooks. After fielding a historically punchless lineup last year, San Diego projects to have one of the scariest batting orders this year.

On paper, the Padres appeared to have a pretty good rotation as well, comprised of Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, Ian Kennedy, Odrisamer Despaigne, and either Cory Luebke or Brandon Morrow at the back end. The addition of Shields gives San Diego a strong front three with him, Ross (an All-Star last year), and Cashner (2.87 ERA over his last 300 innings), with Despaigne (a prime breakout candidate) and Kennedy rounding out the rotation.

That's a good team. I still like Los Angeles to win the NL West again, but San Diego looks like the second-best club in that division right now. They look significantly stronger than the Giants, who didn't do squat this winter, while the Rockies and Diamondbacks are still a joke. A 77-win team in 2014, San Diego should improve by at least 10 wins, which would put them in contention for a wild card berth. That's a big step for the Padres, who have had just one winning season out of the last seven and haven't reached the postseason since 2006.

Who knows: they might even exceed 90 wins for the first time since 1998. That would be quite a feat.

Should Shields Get Nine Figures?

James Shields is going to become very rich very soon (Sports Now)

The first big name starting pitcher to go off the board this winter was Jon Lester, who set the market by inking a six-year, $155 million deal with the Chicago Cubs. James Shields, Lester's former AL East rival, appears next to go. According to Ken Rosenthal, Shields has received a reported five-year, $110 million contract offer from an unknown team. Since his agent isn't Scott Boras, the offer may well be legit.

The obvious question: is Shields worth that kind of money?

Up to now and in a vacuum, Shields's' performance suggests he is. In three of the past four years he was worth north of $20 million, and in the one year he wasn't (2012) he was valued at $17.4. Adjusting for inflation, $22 million per year seems perfectly reasonable for someone who's a) been worth it in the past and b) a free agent, thus requiring a mark-up for his services.

Pitchers are inherently risky investments because of their propensity for getting hurt, but Shields is as safe as any hurler can be. He's topped 30 starts and 200 innings eight years running, leading the sport in innings pitched during that time. The definition of a workhorse, Shields has never spent a day on the Disabled List. He takes the ball every fifth day and can be counted on to pitch deep into games. Last year, for instance, he completed at least six innings in all but four of his 34 starts. Shields soaks up innings and preserves the bullpen.

What's more, Shields is also a great pitcher. Over the past four years, while averaging 233 innings per year, he's posted a 3.17 ERA (124 ERA+), 1.16 WHIP, 3.49 FIP, and 3.51 K/BB ratio. Shields has been one of the 10 most valuable pitchers in baseball during that time, beating out the likes of Zack Greinke, Madison Bumgarner, and Jered Weaver. Aside from his rookie year and a disastrous 2010, he's been a better than average pitcher every year of his nine-year career.

Problem is, all those innings take a toll on a pitcher's arm, making it fair to ask how Shields will hold up. Last year, he threw more pitches than anyone else in baseball, something that will likely come back to haunt him next year. It's also worrisome that his strikeout rate, which plummeted from almost a better per inning in 2012 to 7.1 K/9 last year--roughly league average. He's not missing bats with the same regularity, and thus relying more on his defense and park for success. That was fine in Tampa Bay and Kansas City, where he benefitted from pitcher-friendly parks and strong defenses behind him (not to mention the Royals' shutdown bullpen), but might not be the case elsewhere. His hit rate has risen every year since 2011, and will continue to do so should his strikeout rate continue to fall.

On that note, it's also concerning that Shields has allowed more than a home run per inning throughout his career despite pitching in home parks that are notoriously tough on power hitters. It's hardly surprising given his fly ball tendencies, but definitely something to keep an eye on. A move to a homer-friendly venue would definitely be troublesome for him.

At 33, Shields is also in the decline phase of his career, even more so than a position player of the same age because pitchers typically peak earlier. To earn his keep, Shields will need to be worth about three wins per year over the life of the contract, which will cover his age 33-37 seasons. That would entail replicating his 2014 season (3.3 bWAR) five times over, which doesn't seem likely to happen. His 2014 (3.3 bWAR) was already a bit of a step down from his great 2013 campaign (4.1 bWAR).

If we project a similar annual decline going forward, then Shields will only have one season that comes close to matching his paycheck. If we conservatively estimate he'll lose about half a win per season, then he'll have three more average to above average seasons but will still come up short on value. I see this as the most likely scenario; that Shields will be effective for two or three more years, than probably fall apart. The only way Shields will be worth nine figures is if he a) stays healthy and b) suffers no noticeable drop-off in performance. He'll need to be a rich man's Mark Buehrle for the next half-decade.

Based on how many recent aces have broken down in their mid-30s, that seems virtually impossible. Pedro Martinez had his last great year at 33 and started just 57 games over the ensuing four years, which proved to be the final seasons of his career. Roy Halladay was Cy Young runner-up at 34, mediocre at 35, and a dud at 36. Johan Santana, though not officially retired, last pitched at 33 and is probably done for good. Josh Beckett just retired at 34. CC Sabathia, who carried a similarly large workload for more than a decade, has been a disaster at 32 and 33. Justin Verlander, the best pitcher on the planet in 2011 and 2012, looks washed-up, and he's not even 32 yet. The list goes on an on.

Jay Jaffe showed there's almost no way Shields will be worth the money (on what will probably be his last contract), but any team that signs him has to know that. They're banking on a few more good years from Shields and will be okay with absorbing a loss on the back end. After all, a team that adds Shields is trying to win now, and there's no question he'll help them do so. He's a boon to any rotation, likely an ace or strong number two depending on where he lands. He'd be better off pitching in the National League and/or in a big ballpark, obviously, but his solid defense-independent numbers suggest that he'll thrive wherever he goes.

And while his plunging strikeout rate is discouraging, there's nothing else to suggest he's going to fall off a cliff next year. Accordingly, Steamer projects him to top 200 innings again next year and be worth three fWAR. If he does that, he'll not only earn his paycheck, but he'll also be making a big difference for a team in the postseason hunt. That's why I'd like to see the Red Sox go after him, if only because they don't have anyone who bears even a passing resemblance to an ace (not that one is a requisite for making the postseason, but it sure would be nice to have one). With Shields, they'd be the best team in the AL East, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen.

Whoever lands Shields is going to get a great pitcher, but not for long.

Bumgarner Delivers

Bumgarner was lights-out in the crucial fifth game of the World Series (NYDailyNews)

Madison Bumgarner was spectacular once again last night, pitching the San Francisco Giants to within one game of their third World Series title this decade.

MadBum was electric in front of a capacity crowd at AT&T Ballpark, gifting the fans with one of his best performances in the final game of the season there. He was truly masterful, yielding only four hits and no walks while striking out eight as he shut out the Royals. Only twice did he allow runners to reach scoring position. For the second time this series, in which he now has a 0.56 ERA, the 25 year-old southpaw got the better of "Big Game" James Shields.

Shields, to his credit, pitched well, scattering eight hits over six innings and permitting just two runs. He redeemed his poor Game 1 performance by keeping his team in the game before turning said game over to the bullpen, which for the second night in a row gave the game away. Kelvin Herrera surrendered two runs in his lone inning of work (the seventh), and Wade Davis allowed one in his (the eighth). The way Bumgarner was pitching, spotting him a five run lead may as well have been 15.

Offensively the Giants were led by Hunter Pence and Pablo Sandoval, who continued their monster series with two hits and two runs apiece. Pence is now batting a ridiculous .474/.545/.737 in this Fall Classic, while Sandoval is raking at a .364/.364/.455 clip. Yordano Ventura and the Kansas City bullpen must find a way to neutralize them in Game 6, as well as the always-dangerous Buster Posey, if they're going to have any chance of playing Game 7. Ventura pitched well enough in Game 2, making it into the sixth inning after allowing two runs on eight hits, but given the Royals' recent bullpen woes he may need to be even stingier.

With the series shifting back to Kansas City, San Francisco has two chances to close out the title. In Game 6 the Giants will try to do so behind Jake Peavy, who pitched poorly in Game 2 (four runs in five innings). He'll need to be better than that against Kansas City's live-armed rookie, otherwise his team will be in the unenviable position of playing a Game 7 on the road.

I like the Royals' chances tomorrow night, back at home and with the superior pitcher on the mound. I'd also love to see a Game 7. Hopefully the home team can pull it out.

Royal Collapse

The Royals appeared to have the series well in hand, until the Giants came back (ESPN)

When the San Francisco Giants inevitably win this World Series, we will point to the second half of Game 4 as the moment when it all fell apart for the Kansas City Royals, just as one looking to explain Detroit's collapse in last year's ALCS need only mention David Ortiz's series-shifting grand slam off Joaquin Benoit.

Because the Giants, for all intents and purposes, were toast. Done. Finished. They entered the bottom of the fifth inning of Game 4 down 4-2 in the game and 2-1 in the series. It goes without saying that if San Francisco loses that game their season's essentially over, because they have to beat James Shields in Game 5, then travel to Kansas City and win back-to-back games on the road. No way they were winning three straight against a team that began this postseason 8-0.

So San Francisco, with its back basically to the wall, rallied. More than that, the Giants exploded for nine runs, all against a Kansas City bullpen that had previously been untouchable. San Fran scored two in the fifth to tie it, three in the sixth to pull ahead, and four in the seventh to put the game out of reach. When the smoke cleared at game's end, the home team had pounded the Royals for 11 runs and 16 hits, equaling their run total from the series' first three games.

Now, with the series even at two games apiece and their ace, Madison Bumgarner, on the mound tonight, the Giants have new life. They have the best pitcher in the series going for them, one who has been nothing but filth these playoffs (1.40 ERA in five starts). The 25 year-old southpaw is on such a roll right now that he can't lose, nor will he in the most important game of the season. Bumgarner, like Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling before him, is going to come through for his team when they need him the most.

The same can't be said about Shields, who's tarnished his "Big Game" nickname with his recent lackluster performance.  He was battered in Game 1 to the tune of five runs and seven hits in three innings, spiking his 2014 playoff ERA to 7.11 and his career postseason mark to 5.74. Shields is better than that and still the best starting pitcher Kansas City has, but if I'm Ned Yost or a Royals fan I definitely don't feel too great about my chances tonight.

The irony is that Shields was brought to Kansas City for precisely this moment; a must-win playoff game. Dayton Moore was willing to give up Wil Myers to have Shields available for a game like this. But with the Royals in their first postseason since 1985, Shields has been more of a detriment than asset. The free agent-to-be has the chance to redeem himself tonight, in what will most certainly be the final game he ever pitches for the Royals. But if he gets shelled again, then the Royals' losing the World Series is going to be on him, and Moore's going to have to live with the fact that he traded Myers for the wrong guy.

Giants Grab Series Lead

San Francisco won Game 1 behind a brilliant start from Madison Bumgarner (WSOCTV)

The Royals' postseason winning streak of 11 (dating back to the 1985 World Series) was snapped last night as Kansas City lost Game 1 of the World Series, 7-1. The San Francisco Giants, making their third World Series appearance in five years, earned a decisive Game 1 victory on the road to open the Series.

The Royals' meek offense was no match for Giants' ace Madison Bumgarner, who held them to three hits and one run over seven stellar innings. The southpaw continued his month-long run of dominance, lowering his ERA in these playoffs to a microscopic 1.40 while improving his career postseason record to 6-3.

Meanwhile, "Big Game" James Shields failed to live up to his reputation once again, as he was bombed for five runs and seven hits in three innings. Shields struggled from the get-go, allowing hits to five of the first six batters he faced as San Francisco jumped out to an early 3-0 lead. He seemed to settle down with 1-2-3 innings in the second and third, only to unravel again in the fourth. Hunter Pence stroked a leadoff double, Brandon Belt followed with a walk, and Michael Morse singled to drive Pence home.

That was all for Shields, who saw his postseason ERA swell to 5.74 with the poor outing. Danny Duffy came on in relief and walked in a run before getting himself out of a bases loaded, one out jam.

But the damage was done. The Giants would have all the runs they would need on a night when Bumgarner was practically unhittable. San Francisco padded its lead to 7-0 in the seventh, and when Salvador Perez touched MadBum for a solo shot in the bottom half of the frame the game was already out of reach. Bumgarner departed after 106 pitches, having struck out five against only one walk, and the Giants bullpen took it from there.

Tonight's Game 2 becomes a must-win for the Royals, who need to even the series before traveling to San Francisco for Games 3, 4, and 5. They'll send young Yordano Ventura, their 23 year-old flamethrowing rookie, to the mound against Jake Peavy, a major league veteran of 13 years. Peavy, pitching in the Fall Classic for the second year in a row, has been a revelation since being traded from Boston in late July. Ventura was excellent in his ALDS start but struggled against Baltimore in the ALCS, so it's tough to say how he'll perform in his first World Series start. Peavy's on a roll, with a 2.14 ERA since joining San Francisco, and will look to maintain that momentum against a meager Royals lineup that managed just four hits against his teammates last night.

In a matchup of young versus old, Kansas City needs its youth to step up, otherwise there may not be another game at Kaufmann Stadium this year after tonight.

Shields & Santana Royal Success

Shields (pictured) and Santana are lifting the Royals to new heights

The red-hot Royals have roared back into contention over the past month. They've won 21 of their 29 games since the All-Star Break, including 17 of 20 from July 23rd through August 12th. They're pitching well, playing extraordinary defense, and scoring just enough runs to scrape by.

And, for the first time in who knows how long, they have a formidable 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation. Their two biggest offseason acquisitions--James Shields and Ervin Santana--have stepped up to lead the staff with the best ERA in the American League. They rank second and tenth, respectively, in innings pitched and are tied for tenth in ERA, combining for about five wins above replacement.

Before the season began, though, nobody was hailing the dynamic duo as saviors. Instead, every baseball fan with a working brain was ripping Royals GM Dayton Moore for giving up so much to acquire Shields, Wade Davis and a player to be named later (Elliot Johnson). Moore, in a desperate effort to win-now, dealt Wil Myers and three prospects to Tampa Bay for Shields and spare parts. Shields is a number two starter who's going to be a free agent after the season. Myers is a 22 year-old phenom who's already setting the world on fire and is going to be a star for years to come.

It's scary to imagine what would've happened if Shields had gone bust--either by getting hurt or regressing to the dismal form he displayed in 2009 and 2010. The baseball universe would have imploded. Moore would be out of a job and probably dead; hanged, drawn, and quartered through the streets of Kansas City by bloodthirsty Royals fans.

Thankfully, Shields has lived up to his end of the bargain by doing what he does best--staying healthy and pitching very well. The ever-durable Shields hasn't missed a start and has thrown more innings than any American League hurler not named Justin Masterson, while maintaining the second-best ERA of his career. He's completed six innings or more in 23 of his 26 starts and has never pitched fewer than five Even on days when he doesn't have his best stuff, he still manages to go deep into games and preserve the bullpen.

Santana, on the other hand, represented a much bigger question mark. Nobody knew what to expect from the 30 year-old pitcher with a spotty track record coming off the worst season of his career, one in which he led the majors in home runs allowed and had an ERA over five. That didn't discourage the Royals from taking him off the Angels' hands and hoping that he would pitch like he did the two years before last, when he delivered over 450 innings with a 3.65 ERA.

Sure enough, Santana's bounced back. He's been every bit as valuable as Shields, and probably a hair better. They have the same 3.19 ERA, but it's Santana who owns the superior W-L record, WHIP, and K/BB ratio. The gamble has paid off.

So now, with the Royals gunning for their first postseason appearance since 1985, they need both workhorses to continue pitching at their top of their games. Big Game James must live up to his reputation and Santana can't afford to relapse. They've spent all summer making Dayton Moore look good. It would be a real shame if they let him down now.