Cueto Quite the Bargain

Cueto could fetch an even bigger payday two years from now (NBC Sports)

After missing the playoffs for the fourth odd-year in a row, the San Francisco Giants are gearing up for what hopes to be their fourth straight even-year championship.

Since losing out on Zack Greinke, the Giants have already spent more than what it would have taken to acquire him, but for two pitchers rather than one. Normally I'd say that's a smart move--you're not putting all your eggs in one basket--but not when one of those guys is Jeff Samardzija. I still can't wrap my head around why anyone would want to give $90 million to a 31 year-old who just posted an ERA dangerously close to five, but that's another topic for another post.

Because while I think the Samardzija deal was a mistake as soon as the ink dried, I actually like the Johnny Cueto contract a lot. Forget about his up-and-down second half with Kansas City last year and look at the larger sample size--all in the National League, where he'll be returning next year. Over the past five years only Clayton Kershaw has started at least 100 games and compiled a lower ERA than Cueto, which speaks to just how sneaky-dominant he's been. He hasn't been the most durable pitcher ever, exceeding 200 innings in just three of his eight years, but he's not Clay Buchholz, either. There's only been two years where he's failed to start 30 games, meaning you can pretty much count on him to take the ball every fifth day.

So given his age (30), health, and recent dominance, I'm shocked Cueto settled for six years and $130 million. Granted, he's a virtual lock to opt out after two years and seek another similarly-sized contract, but with the crazy money pitchers have gotten this winter I'm surprised he didn't fetch at least $150 million. I mean, Jon Lester got six years/$155 million last year, and he was a year older with another full season of innings on his arm. David Price is six months older, yet Cueto received one fewer year and only 60 percent the money. Greinke is two years older, but got the same number of years and $76 million more.

What gives? Cueto's never won a Cy Young, like Greinke and Price have, and he's not a lefty, like Lester and Price are. They're also all better strikeout guys than Cueto--whose whiff rate has been roughly league average throughout his career--and strikeouts have proven to be the pitching equivalent of home runs when it's time to get paid (which is why Chris Davis just turned down Baltimore's $150 million offer).

But while punchouts are sexy, they aren't the only way to get outs, and Cueto has done a better job at doing that than everyone besides Kershaw. Five years is a big enough sample size--almost 900 innings--to prove that Cueto's success is not a fluke. He's an elite pitcher, even if his peripherals don't exactly back that up.

Cueto probably could have gotten more had he pushed harder or waited longer to sign, but like Jason Heyward chose to leave a good chunk of guaranteed money on the table for the chance to hit the market again in a few years. He'll be the same age Greinke is now, and that didn't stop Greinke from getting the richest contract in baseball history on an annual basis. With a couple big seasons in San Francisco and perhaps another championship under his belt, Cueto will be an even more attractive free agent at 32 than he was at 30.

 And if he's not, well, four more years at $84 million is nothing to cry about.

Game 2: Royals Roll

Cueto came up big last night for Kansas City (ABC News)

Six weeks ago, mired in perhaps the worst cold spell of his career, Johnny Cueto looked totally lost. After being one of the best pitchers in baseball during the first half, he'd come over to Kansas City in late July and promptly lost his mojo. He couldn't strike anybody out, and he was getting torched every time he took the mound. Over a four-week stretch his ERA approached 10. His transition to the American League was not going well, to say the least.

As his struggles persisted into mid-September, they raised alarm over whether Kansas City could rely on him come playoff time. The whole reason they'd got him was to bolster their middling rotation, which lacked a clear-cut number one without James Shields, and they believed that in order to win the World Series they needed an ace. When they acquired him, Cueto certainly qualified as such. Just one month later, however, he seemed completely broken.

That is, until pitching coach Dave Eiland fixed him. Eiland noticed Cueto's left shoulder flying open during his delivery, causing his pitches to flatten out. His cutter in particular had become straight as an arrow. He called Cueto in to have a look at the tape, and together they saw why the star pitcher was getting creamed.

Cueto was fine the rest of way, allowing three earned runs or fewer in each of his last starts. But Royals fans still had reason to be concerned. The final few weeks of the regular season amounted to garbage time for Kansas City, who'd locked up the AL Central before Cueto even arrived. How would he hold up during the most pressure-packed games of the season, especially after suffering an apparent "crisis of confidence" so late in the season?

Those doubts still lingered before last night's game, as Cueto had been shelled in his most recent outing against Toronto. The Blue Jays battered him for eight runs in two innings, teeing off on him like it was batting practice. It was by far his worst start of the season, worse than any of his late-summer beatings. His ERA since joining the Royals, postseason included, was now 5.27. With an unbeaten (in the postseason) Jacob deGrom lined up to face Cueto, Game 2 seemed likely to go New York's way.

Then the game started, and all of the sudden Cueto could do no wrong.

Cueto and the Royals celebrate their 7-1 victory over the Mets (Click2Houston)

Last night was a perfect example of why Dayton Moore traded for Cueto back in July, even with the playoffs all but assured by that point. When he's on, he's one of the best pitchers in the game.

Cueto delivered his best start since early August, spinning a complete game two-hitter as Kansas City trounced New York, 7-1. By GameScore, it was his best start since he shut out Detroit on August 10th. It was also the best postseason start of his career.

Kansas City's dreadlocked ace was dominant from the start, zipping through the first three innings while facing the minimum nine batters. He hit a snag his second time through the order, walking two and letting in the game's first run on a flare single by Lucas Duda with two outs in the fourth. Beyond that, though, Cueto was unstoppable. He retired the next 15 in a row, allowing just one baserunner (a Daniel Murphy walk) the rest of the way.

With Cueto starting opposite deGrom, Game 2 was billed as the best pitching matchup of the series. For the first half of the game, it certainly was. Both stumbled in the fourth, however, with Cueto surrendering the first run of the game and deGrom getting out of a bases loaded jam. But whereas Cueto settled down after his minor hiccup, deGrom disintegrated the very next inning.

The trouble started when Alex Gordon, the hero of Game 1, led off with a full-count walk.

Alex Rios, the Royals' most regrettable offseaon pickup, followed with a single to move Gordon up to second. That brought Alcides Escobar, who got the scoring started the previous night with his mad dash around the bases, to the plate. Once again, he delivered Kansas City's first run of the game, slapping a single up the middle that plated Gordon and tied the game.

After Ben Zobrist grounded out and Lorenzo Cain lined out, it looked like deGrom would escape the inning without further damage. Until Eric Hosmer, another Game 1 hero, struck again, poking a single up the middle that scored both Rios and Escobar. According to win probability added, it was the biggest play of the game, increasing Kansas City's chances of winning the game from 58 percent to 80 percent. Successive singles by Kendrys Morales and Mike Moustakas added another run to KC's ledger, improving their odds of victory to 87 percent by the end of the frame.

After that it was all Kansas City. Cueto cruised the rest of the way while New York's bullpen, summoned back into action after a taxing effort in Game 1, allowed three additional runs in the eighth to put the game out of reach. That also gave Cueto plenty of leeway with which to finish his start and saving Ned Yost the trouble of warming anyone up in case Cueto faltered. With a maximum of one more start this season (plus a possible Madison Bumgarner-esque relief effort if the series goes seven), the free agent-to-be was permitted to come back out for the ninth even though he'd already thrown 106 pitches. He finished the game having thrown 122.

Cueto did what deGrom could not--he saved the bullpen after an exhausting Game 1.

More importantly, he gave his team a commanding 2-0 series lead, bringing Kansas City to within two wins of its first World Series championship in 30 years.

Now, the Mets' championship hopes ride on a rookie starting pitcher who turned 23 two months ago. Make no mistake, Noah Syndergaard will be up to the challenge based on how he's performed up to this point, but you just never know how he'll handle this kind of pressure-cooker. He has to pitch knowing that if he loses, his team is in an 0-3 hole and their season is effectively over. That's a ton of pressure on a kid making his first World Series start.

The pitcher he's going up against, Yordano Ventura, isn't much older at 24. Ventura does have World Series experience, however, so he's been there before. His team is in the driver's seat, so he can pitch relatively worry-free.

While Game 2 was supposed to be a pitcher's duel, Game 3 has similar potential. Syndergaard and Ventura are two of the hardest throwers in the game today, which makes their matchup especially intriguing. Syndergaard's been the superior pitcher this year (in both the regular season and postseason), but Ventura does have that World Series experience to draw on. New York would seem to have the advantage, being at home with the better pitcher on the mound, but either hurtler is certainly capable of the kind of virtuoso performance Cueto enjoyed last night.

The Mets just better hope that their guy's better, because if not then they're finished.

April Awards

May is here, which means the first month of baseball is in the books. Thus, it's time to hand out some awards.

American League
Player of the Month-Jose Bautista
Joey Bats is back. The slugging rightfielder drew 30 walks last month, most in baseball, to fuel his AL-best .467 OBP and 1.065 OPS. He also went yard eight times, tying Jose Abreu and Justin Upton for the best AB/HR ratio in the sport, scored 24 runs, and reached base more times than any player in baseball.

Pitcher of the Month-Masahiro Tanaka
The highly touted Japanese rookie has been even better than anticipated for the Yankees, asserting himself as the ace of New York's staff. His 2.27 ERA, 2.96 FIP and 0.93 WHIP are all superb, as is his 11.6 K/9 rate and 7.67 K/BB ratio. He's pitched at least seven innings in four of his five starts (all of which have produced a Game Score better than 60) and recorded double digit strikeouts three times. The Yankees have to be satisfied with the early returns on their seven-year, $155 million investment.

Rookie of the Month-Jose Abreu
What a month it was for Abreu, who surpassed Albert Pujols' rookie records for home runs and RBI in the month of April, finishing with 10 and 32, respectively--most in the majors. The Cuban slugger also leads the sport in total bases, AB/HR ratio, and extra base hits, plus has the best slugging percentage in the American League.

Team of the Month-Oakland A's
Led by its dominant pitching staff and potent offense, Oakland rolled to an 18-10 record in April behind the best run-differential in the sport, putting them three wins ahead of every other American League team. Strong starts from Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir, and Jesse Chavez have picked up the slack for A.J. Griffin and Jarrod Parker (lost for the season), helping Oakland maintain the league's lowest ERA. The lineup, which leads all of baseball in walks and has the second-highest OBP, has been boosted by Josh Donaldson, Jed Lowrie, Coco Crisp, Yoenis Cespedes, and Brandon Moss. The two-time defending AL West champs once again find themselves at the top of the standings and have put themselves in good position to three-peat.

National League
Player of the Month-Troy Tulowitzki
Tulo batted a scorching hot .364/.477/.727 in April to finish the month with the sport's highest OBP, SLG, OPS, and second best batting average (behind teammate Charlie Blackmon). The NL runs scored leader is also tops in bWAR, OPS+. and runs created. He's a big reason why the Rockies are tied with LA for second place in the NL West right now.

Pitcher of the Month-Johnny Cueto
Cincinnati's ace leads both leagues in ERA (with a microscopic 1.15) and innings pitched, as well as complete games, ERA+, and H/9. He also has a 0.77 WHIP, 3.57 K/BB ratio and is striking out more than a batter per inning. He's allowed just six runs in his six starts, all of which have lasted at least seven innings, and his average Game Score thus far is a 76.

Rookie of the Month-Chris Owings
Not a whole lot of NL Rookies contributing right now. Arizona's 22 year-old shortstop is batting a solid .313/.367/.398 with five doubles and four stolen bases. Along with Paul Goldschmidt and Mark Trumbo, he's one of the few bright spots on a disastrous Diamondbacks team.

Team of the Month-Milwaukee Brewers
The Brew Crew boast the best record in baseball at 20-8, largely thanks to their lights-out starting pitching and stellar bullpen work. Four of their five starting pitchers have ERAs below 2.90 (newcomer Matt Garza, at an even 5.00, is lagging behind) with Yovani Gallardo, Kyle Lohse, Marco Estrada and Wily Peralta all pitching like aces. The bullpen's been even better; backed by a perfect Francisco Rodriguez (0.00 ERA in 16 appearances) and near-perfect Tyler Thornburg (0.61 in 14), Milwaukee's 'pen has a 2.45 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 4.12 K/BB ratio. Offensively, the Brewers are getting production from multiple sources. Ryan Braun and Carlos Gomez are off to MVP-caliber starts, and they're getting plenty of help from Aramis Ramirez, Jonathan Lucroy, and Mark Reynolds.