Praise Parity

It's going to be tough for KC to repeat with so much competition (CNN)

If you thought there was a lot of parity in the American League last year, just wait. Everybody's going for it this year, which means anyone could win. It's going to be a fun summer.

I've highlighted the strengths of each team below, outlining the reasons they could be this year's American League champions. The teams are ordered by FanGraphs' projected standings, with their projected records and run differentials included in parentheses.

AL East--We've reached a point where every year it seems like every team in the division could have a winning record. Maybe that happens this year.

Boston Red Sox (88-74, +69)

After another busy offseason, Boston now has the division's best pitcher in David Price as well as a shutdown bullpen and a promising lineup. They're blessed with two great young catchers (Blake Swihart and Christian Vazquez) who complement each other perfectly, are extremely talented up the middle and project to have an amazing outfield defense of Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley, Jr. and Rusney Castillo. This is pretty much the same team that was favored to represent the American League in the World Series last year, only with a better bullpen and the ace that Ben Cherington refused to acquire.

Toronto Blue Jays (84-78, +32)

The best lineup in baseball is back and ready to mash its way to the playoffs, giving pitchers plenty of nightmares along the way. Marcus Stroman, Drew Hutchison, and Aaron Sanchez will have to step up and cover the losses of Price and Mark Buehrle (who finally retired), but if they do it could mean a second straight division crown for Toronto.

New York Yankees (82-80, +11)

New York returns essentially the same crop of position players that outscored every team except Toronto last year, and that was despite having three offensive black holes up the middle in Didi Gregorius, Stephen Drew, and Jacoby Ellsbury (Chase Headley wasn't anything to wrote home about, either). Gregorious is never going to hit, but Drew's gone (replaced by Starlin Castro) and Ellsbury should be better with improved health.  Their rotation has loads of potential if Luis Severino and Michael Pineda break out to supplement Masahiro Tanaka, and their bullpen is so good that they may never lose a game they're leading after the sixth inning.

Tampa Bay Rays (81-81, -1)

PECOTA picked Tampa Bay to win the AL East, and if you look at their starting rotation it's not hard to see why. Headed by Cy Young candidate Chris Archer and filled out by Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly, Matt Moore, and Alex Cobb, the Rays rotation could be the AL's best. Its offense should also pack more punch this year--especially in the outfield--with a healthy Desmond Jennings and the plundering of Corey Dickerson from Colorado.

Baltimore Orioles (80-82, -7)

Baltimore boasts a power-laden lineup that ranked third in the majors in home runs last year and could easily lead both leagues this year, which is why FanGraphs expects them to outscore every team except the Blue Jays. Most of their position players are in or near their primes, Manny Machado is still only 23, and Matt Wieters could be in line for a big bounce back as he plays for his next contract. Their bullpen was very good last year, and the rotation could get a boost if young starters Kevin Gausman (25) and Dylan Bundy (23) make the leap.

Chris Sale (pictured) and Jose Abreu lead an improved Chicago club (MLB.com)

AL Central--No longer Detroit's to lose, but they're not going down without a fight.

Cleveland Indians (86-76, +45)

The Indians have what FanGraphs believes to be the run prevention in the American League, which could be the case if its flamethrowing rotation holds up. Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar, and Carlos Carrasco make for a formidable big three, and there's plenty of arms beyond them in Trevor Bauer, Josh Tomlin, and Cody Anderson. Cleveland's lineup is balanced, with only one glaring weakness in center field, and their infield looks tremendous on paper. A full season of Francisco Lindor will help, too.

Detroit Tigers (81-81, -1)

After stripping down their team last summer, the Tigers reloaded during the winter and are poised to make another run. Jordan Zimmermann joins what should be a solid rotation, especially if Daniel Norris breaks out and Justin Verlander rebounds a bit. Their dynamite offense, bolstered by Justin Upton, could improve as well if Victor Martinez bounces back, Miguel Cabrera stays healthy, and Nick Castellanos progresses.

Chicago White Sox (81-81, -4)

Two consecutive offseasons of upgrades has the Sox on the brink of contention. Their offseason wasn't as splashy as the cross-town Cubs, but they still improved themselves plenty by signing Mat Latos and Austin Jackson in addition to trading for Todd Frazier and Brett Lawrie. The result is a very well-rounded roster that should make a lot of noise in an up-for-grabs division.

Minnesota Twins (77-85, -34)

Minnesota surprised everyone by remaining in contention deep into lastyear, and their young players are only getting better. Miguel Sano looks primed for an MVP season and Bryon Buxton should make more of an impact. A healthy Ervin Santana will help the rotation.

Kansas City Royals (77-85, -39)

Coming off two straight pennants and a World Series victory, Kansas City is this division's team to beat. They're bringing back pretty much the same team from last year, too (minus Johnny Cueto, who stunk for them anyways).

Already, the best shortstop in baseball, Correa could be AL MVP this year (MLB.com)

AL West--Houston appears to be the top dog in this dogfight.

Houston Astros (87-75, +60)

Houston has plenty of power and speed after ranking first and second in the AL last year in steals and long balls, respectively. Full seasons from George Springer, Carlos Gomez, and Rookie of the Year Carlos Correa will add more of both.  Their rotation is really good too, led by defending Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel and fortified by Collin McHugh, Lance McCullers, and Doug Fister. The Astros are the most complete team in this division and loaded with young talent, making the AL West theirs for the taking.

Seattle Mariners (82-80, +12)

The M's are like the Rays--loaded with pitching but short on bats. Their rotation projects to be one of the better units in the league, especially if Taijuan Walker steps it up in his third season and Felix Hernandez rebounds from what was a down year for him. They'll have plenty of help from newcomers Wade Miley and Nate Karns as well as the always-underrated Hisashi Iwakuma. Bounce backs by Kyle Seager and Robinson Cano will infuse the offense and relieve some of the pressure on Nelson Cruz.

Los Angeles Angels (81-81, -3)

Mike Trout, a healthy Albert Pujols, and C.J. Cron can do some serious damage, and they now have the game's best defensive shortstop in Andrelton Simmons. The rotation will be better than last year with better health from Matt Shoemaker and C.J. Wilson, improvement from Andrew Heaney and a rebound from Jered Weaver.

Texas Rangers (80-82, -8)

Texas has big bats all over the place with Prince Fielder, Adrian Beltre, Ian Desmond, Josh Hamilton, and Shin-Soo Choo leading the charge. Those are all veterans, but the Rangers have talented youngsters too, as Rougned Odor is trending up and everyone's in love with Jurickson Profar. They also have a pair of bona fide aces in Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish, which will make them tough to beat if their stars ward off age for another year.

Oakland Athletics (79-83, -17)

The A's were one of baseball's unluckiest teams last year, so if their luck flips they'll be contenders again. As always, they're a deep team with talented players manning every position, which makes them better able to withstand injuries. They also have one of the best young pitchers in baseball in Sonny Gray, who heads an intriguing rotation. Full seasons from Kendall Graveman and Jesse Hahn, plus a renaissance from the seemingly rejuvenated Rich Hill, could add up to a successful year for Oakland.

 

My take: As a Red Sox fan I'm tempted to pick Boston, but Houston appears to have the best all-around team on paper. I think their division might be a little easier, too, since LA and Oakland aren't that good and Texas could easily regress if everyone gets old at once. They're a team on the rise, and I like their chances in 2016.

Who's Number One in Fantasy?

Let the debates begin (ESPN)

With the Super Bowl over and Spring Training just days away, it's time to start making preparations (if you haven't already) for fantasy baseball.

One scenario that every player must prepare for is what he'll do if the fantasy gods bless him with the top pick in his draft. That hasn't required much thought the last few years, as Mike Trout was clearly the top choice in fantasy due to his age and all-around skill set, but with the emergence of Bryce Harper it's not so clear-cut. And could Paul Goldschmidt really be a better fantasy option than both of them? Let's find out.

The case for Trout:

Trout isn't quite as valuable in fantasy as he once was due to his shrinking stolen base totals and back-to-back seasons below .300, but he's still arguably the top choice. Trout's sacrificed some average for power the last two years, which has helped him produce career-highs in home runs both seasons. He's now a threat to go yard 40 times which, combined with his huge runs/RBI figures and double-digit stolen base totals, guarantees elite production across the board. His averages, while not what they once were, are still pretty good, making him a true five-category contributor. Trout's also been phenomenal at making adjustments since arriving in the majors, which makes him a good bet to maintain, if not improve on, his stellar numbers (it'd be nice if the Angels put some decent hitters around him, though). Draft Trout with confidence, make sure he's in your lineup Opening Day, and forget about him the rest of the season.

My Projections: 110 R 37 HR 96 RBI 13 SB .295 BA

The case for Harper

When healthy, Harper has the potential to be the best player in baseball, as he proved last year when he batted .330/.460/.649 (205 OPS+) with 42 home runs and 9.9 bWAR. "When healthy" is the key phrase there, as 2015 marked the first time in four seasons that Harper eclipsed 140 games. He also doesn't run much anymore, with only eight steals in his past two seasons, so he's more of a four-category stud. But man, he'll carry you in those four categories. He might be the only player in baseball capable of winning a batting title and a home run crown (which he nearly did last year), and he should be good for around 100 runs and RBI again. The RBI total might drop to "disappointing" Joey Votto levels because of his weak supporting cast and how often he gets walked with guys on base, but he'll still be a boon in that department. Plus he's only 23, which means he might, you know, get better (only kidding).

My Projections: 111 R 38 HR 105 RBI 7 SB .311 BA

The case for Goldschmidt

Arizona's first baseman is a true five-category monster--Miguel Cabrera if Cabrera could run. He's batted over .300 each of the past three years and exceeded 30 home runs, 100 runs/RBI, and double digits steals in the two seasons where he was healthy. Nobody else has done that multiple times during that span, making Goldy the best bet to provide help in all five departments. He's 28, plays everyday, and calls one of the friendliest hitter's parks in the majors home. All signs point to another big season from Goldschmidt, especially if A.J. Pollock repeats his breakout batting in front of him.

My Projections: 103 R 34 HR 112 RBI 19 SB .316 BA

My gut says to go with Trout, but based on the numbers I actually think I like Goldschmidt a bit more. I'd expect him to hit for a higher average, steal more bases, and knock in a few more runs. However, you usually need at least three (often five) outfielders as opposed to only one first baseman, so positional scarcity might sway me back to Team Trout.

Royals Return to Series

They're baaaaack (image courtesy of the Guardian)

The Kansas City Royals came within one game of winning it all last year. Now they're back to finish the job.

I still can't believe Kansas City is in the World Series--again. Last year seemed like such a fluke, from their crazy comeback against Oakland in the wild card game to stunning sweeps in the ALDS and ALCS. Were it not for Madison Bumgarner, they would've beaten the Giants, too. They'd overachieved by leaps and bounds, especially considering they'd only outscored opponents by 27 runs during the regular season.

That's why this year, I didn't see the Royals going .500 and certainly not getting back to the World Series. They hadn't been very good to start with and seemed due for serious regression, especially after losing James Shields and Billy Butler to free agency and spending what little money they had on guys who weren't very good (Alex Rios? Edinson Volquez? Kendrys Morales?). Compared to other teams, they were dangerously low on star power. Furthermore, Kansas City's strengths--speed, bullpen, and defense--are highly volatile, making its success more difficult to sustain.

Once again, however, everything fell into place for the Royals. Their new pickups (minus Rios) played well, and their bullpen was even stingier than it was last year. Lorenzo Cain emerged as an MVP candidate, while Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas finally started living up to their potential. They were aided by trade deadline reinforcements in Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist. Their defense remained airtight.

It also helped that the rest of their division cleared a path for them. The Tigers finally broke down, the Indians failed to take the next step, and the Twins and White Sox both fizzled out. That enabled the Royals to not only win AL Central handily, by a dozen games, but also helped them secure the best record in the American League and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. That's been huge for Kansas City, who have won five straight at home since dropping Game 1 of the ALDS to Houston.

Now, for the second time in as many years, Kansas City will host the World Series. Once again, the Royals will have to go through some tough pitching, though this time there will be no Bumgarner standing in their way. Instead, they'll need to overcome Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard, three fireballers who will put their contact skills to the test. They'll also have to find a way to neutralize Daniel Murphy, something nobody's been able to do thus far.

I think the Mets have more talent and are more dangerous, especially because their starting pitching is so superior. Their offense has also been ridiculously hot over the past three months, which if it continues will force Kansas City's starters early from the game and take their relievers out of play. That being said, I do think the Royals have a more balanced team and deeper lineup, so it won't be a cakewalk for New York. Mets in six.

2014 NL West Preview

The Dodgers have more than enough talent to get by while Kershaw's on the mend (CBS)

1st Place Los Angeles Dodgers
2013 Record: 92-70
2013 Pythagorean: 89-73
2014 Projected: 97-65
The Dodgers, proud owners of the highest payroll in baseball, are absolutely stacked. They have All-Stars at almost every position, a beastly rotation and a killer bullpen. I mean, just look at their outfield, for crying out loud: Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Carl Crawford. That looks like someone's fantasy team. They have not only the best pitcher on planet earth--Clayton Kershaw--but a deep rotation (Zack Greinke, Hyun-jin Ryu, Dan Haren) that wouldn't miss him too much if he got hurt. Don Mattingly has so much talent at his disposal that a failure to win the division has to be considered a massive disappointment.

2nd Place San Francisco Giants
2013 Record: 76-86
2013 Pythagorean: 74-88
2014 Projected: 91-71
Everything went wrong last year for the 2012 World Series champions, so I expect they reclaim their status as one of the National League's top teams. The offense is surprisingly good with Hunter Pence, Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval, and Buster Posey forming a nice offensive core. The starting pitching should be deep as well, even if Tim Lincecum never regains the form the helped him win back-to-back Cy Youngs in 2008 and 2009. Matt Cain should bounce back and Madison Bumgarner is one of the best young pitchers in the game. Tim Hudson should take advantage of the NL West's big parks and have another good year in his Giants debut. The Giants are much better than their record last year would indicate, and I wouldn't be surprised if they took the Dodgers down to the wire.

3rd Place Arizona Diamondbacks
2013 Record: 81-81
2013 Pythagorean: 80-82
2014 Projected: 82-80
Arizona made some interesting moves over the winter, trading for power bat Mark Trumbo and adding Bronson Arroyo to the rotation. The lineup, led by MVP runner-up Paul Goldschmidt, can hit, but will need Aaron Hill to stay healthy as well as a bounce back from Miguel Montero. The rotation lacks an ace (Wade Miley isn't a number one) and projects to be about average at best. Arroyo's getting up there in age (37 now), Brandon McCarthy has had trouble staying healthy and Trevor Cahill is just okay. I like the bullpen, though. Overall this looks like a .500 team with 85-win upside, which just isn't going to get it done versus the Dodgers and Giants.

4th Place San Diego Padres
2013 Record: 76-86
2013 Pythagorean: 72-90
2014 Projected: 78-84
The Padres are a poor man's Rays--good starting pitching, some speed and defense, but not a whole lot of offense. There's definitely hitting talent there--Chase Headley, Will Venable, Everth Cabrera, Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal, Carlos Quenting (when he comes back) and Jedd Gyorko--who I really like--but none of whom figure to be much better than league average bats. Same goes for the pitching--Andrew Cashner is good, but probably not an ace. Josh Johnson and Ian Kennedy are intriguing pickups though, and might be able to revive their careers at Petco. I could totally see San Diego surprising everyone and going on a nice little run, but I don't think the playoffs are a realistic possibility.

5th Place Colorado Rockies
2013 Record: 74-88
2013 Pythagorean: 76-88
2014 Projected: 75-87
Scoring runs isn't a problem for the Rockies, but preventing them is. When healthy, Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez are one of the best offensive tandems in the game. Not sure why Colorado traded Dexter Fowler, and there's no way Michael Cuddyer wins the batting title again. I'm expecting Nolan Arenado to improve upon his rookie numbers, and how come no one ever talks about Wilin Rosario? I'm also feeling a solid season for Justin Morneau. As always, the Rockies are woefully short on arms, especially with Jhoulys Chacin opening the season on the DL. Brett Anderson just can't stay healthy and Jordan Lyles isn't any good. Franklin Morales, a starter-turned-reliever-turned-starter isn't going to work out. Bottom line, Colorado's pitching is brutal and will sink their season once again.

2014 NL Central Preview

Wainwright and the Cardinals will be powerhouses once again

1st Place St. Louis Cardinals
2013 Record: 97-65
2013 Pythagorean: 101-61
2014 Projected: 95-67
If there's any team in baseball capable of winning 100 games, the Cardinals are it. They are stacked, loaded with talent top-to-bottom. Their lineup is built like an American League offense and might very well be the best in baseball, particularly with Jhonny Peralta providing a big upgrade (offensively ) over Pete Kozma at shortstop. Breakouts from Kelton Wong, Matt Adams and Peter Bourjos would make this lineup a true powerhouse, but even if they struggle Yadier Molina, Matt Holliday, Matt Carpenter and Allen Craig are more than capable of carrying the load. The Cards have so much starting pitching (Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller) it's not even funny, and their bullpen is ridiculously deep--stocked with young, live arms. The defending NL champions are the clear favorites in their division and are poised to make it back to the Fall Classic--and this time they'll probably finish the job.

2nd Place Cincinnati Reds
2013 Record: 90-72
2013 Pythagorean: 93-69
2014 Projected: 87-75
Cincinnati got noticeably weaker over the offseason, losing elite table-setter Shin-Soo Choo to free agency along with durable innings-eater Bronson Arroyo. There's still enough talent to win 90 games and take a wild card spot, but there's no margin for error. Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Phillips have to hit and stay healthy, because without them the lineup is shockingly thin (unless Billy Hamilton breaks out and/or Todd Frazier has a big power year). The pitching staff needs Johnny Cueto to not get hurt this year, Tony Cingrani to step up and Mat Latos just has  to keep doing what he's doing. Same goes for Aroldis Chapman when he comes back. The Reds are top-heavy, which means they really need everything to go their way in order to reach 90 wins for the fourth time in five years.

3rd Place Milwaukee Brewers
2013 Record: 74-88
2013 Pythagorean: 76-88
2014 Projected: 84-78
Don't sleep on the Brew Crew, who should get a full season from Ryan Braun and added a much-needed arm to the rotation in Matt Garza. Braun rejoins Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Gomez, Jean Segura, Jonathan Lucroy, and breakout candidate Khris Davis to form what should be one of the better offenses in baseball. Mark Reynolds will supply additional firepower off the bench. Garza makes the rotation more formidable, though Kyle Lohse will have to hold off age for another year and Yovani Gallardo needs to bounce back from a disappointing season. Look out for Marco Estrada, who could break out and be the best starter on the staff. I like the back-end of the bullpen (Jim Henderson setting up Francisco Rodriguez), too. I could definitely see the Brewers clicking and making a Wild Card push, but if the rotation doesn't measure up then they're probably just a .500 team.

4th Place Pittsburgh Pirates
2013 Record: 94-68
2013 Pythagorean: 88-74
2014 Projected: 82-80
Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, and Starling Marte lead what should turn out to be a respectable offense mostly comprised of players in their prime yeas. The bullpen is also excellent. I have major doubts about the rotation though (besides young gun Gerrit Cole) and thus see Pittsburgh as more of a .500 team than a playoff contender.

5th Place Chicago Cubs
2013 Record: 66-96
2013 Pythagorean: 71-91
2013 Projected: 70-92
I see bounce back seasons in store for Starlin Castro, Anthony Rizzo and Edwin Jackson, plus a better year from ace Jeff Samardzija, which should be enough to get the Cubs up over 70 wins, but Chicago is still rebuilding and it's going to be another year without a World Series for Cubs fans. Young talent is on the way and should start appearing near the end of the season (Mike Olt and Junior Lake are already there), but for now the team is clearly the weakest in the NL Central and is no match for its division rivals.

2014 NL East Preview

Strasburg and the Nats are poised to run away with the division

1st Place Washington Nationals
2013 Record: 86-76
2013 Pythagorean: 84-78
2014 Projected: 96-66
The Nats are the clear frontrunners in the NL East this year. Their rotation, comprised of Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, and Doug Fister, is the best in baseball. Washington's lineup is equally formidable, with Wilson Ramos behind the plate, Adam LaRoche at first, Anthony Rendon and Ian Desmond up the middle, Ryan Zimmerman manning the hot corner, and an outfield of Bryce Harper, Denard Span and Jayson Werth. Love this team.

2nd Place Atlanta Braves
2013 Record: 96-66
2013 Pythagorean: 98-64
2014 Projected: 90-72
Even with several injuries to their starting rotation, the Braves still have enough pitching and talent to gut out 90 wins in a weak division. The lineup is going to be really good. Andrelton Simmons, Freddie Freeman, and Jason Heyward all have the potential to get better, and I don't think Dan Uggla and B.J. Upton are going to be as bad as they were last season. Evan Gattis will have to prove his strong rookie season was legit, though. And don't forget Justin Upton, possibly the most talented position player on the team. Even without Kris Medlen, Brandon Beachy, and Tim Hudson, the rotation of Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, and Ervin Santana should be solid. The Braves boasted baseball's best bullpen and top closer (Craig Kimbrel) last year, and that unit will need to step up in 2014 to help the rotation along until it gets healthier.

3rd Place Philadelphia Phillies
2013 Record: 73-89
2013 Pythagorean: 66-96
2014 Projected: 75-87
The once-proud Phillies have deteriorated into an aging, bloated team that won't be much better than .500 if everything goes their way. Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and A.J. Burnett form a strong top of the rotation, so starting pitching isn't the problem (when Hamels returns from the DL). The lineup, however, is way too old. Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Marlon Byrd,  and Carlos Ruiz are all past their primes, and Ben Revere simply isn't very good. The only player in that lineup who's young and can hit worth a damn is Domonic Brown. Philadelphia's young talent is on the way but won't be ready to contribute much in 2014 when the aging stars invariably get hurt. The bullpen isn't make or break, especially with Jonathan Papelbon losing velocity and effectiveness as he moves deeper into his 30s. Put it all together and it's going to be another losing season for the Phils.

4th Place New York Mets
2013 Record: 74-88
2013 Pythagorean: 74-88
2014 Projected: 72-90
Losing Matt Harvey for the year is a crippling blow to the rotation, though thankfully it looks as though Zack Wheeler is ready to step up in his absence. I say this is the year Bartolo Colon finally falls apart. Dillon Gee and Jonathan Niese are just merely okay. The lineup looks stronger with Curtis Granderson and Chris Young providing upgrades in the outfield, but it remains to be seen how their power will play in Citi Field. Ike Davis could really use a bounce back, but my money's on catcher Travis d'Arnaud taking a big step forward. Eric Young Jr. and Ruben Tejada provide speed, but not much else. Like Philly, New York could get to .500 if things go their way but will probably settle in the 70-75 win range.

5th Place Miami Marlins
2013 Record: 62-100
2013 Pythagorean: 64-98
2014 Projected: 69-93
Miami got better over the offseason, bringing in Jarrod Saltalamacchia  and Garrett Jones to stretch out the lineup behind Giancarlo Stanton. Christian Yelich also seems poised for a breakout, but I wouldn't bank on much from Rafael Furcal or Casey McGehee. Overall the offense still projects to be a weak one, but not as bad as last year's. Jose Fernandez fronts an intriguing but also probably not very good pitching staff, unless Jacob Turner and Henderson Alvarez break out. The Marlins won't be the laughingstocks they were last year, but a winning season is still out of the question.

2014 AL Central Preview

Cabrera and the Tigers are the undisputed kings of the AL Central

1st Place Detroit Tigers
2013 Record: 93-69
2013 Pythagorean: 99-63
2014 Projected: 92-70
The Tigers have won the division three years in a row and should have no problem repeating again in 2014. Trading Prince Fielder takes some oomph out of their lineup and I think this is the year that Torii Hunter finally falls apart, but the offense is still dynamite. You have Miguel Cabrera--the best hitter in baseball--surrounded by Austin Jackson, Victor Martinez (who proved he could still hit last year) and now Ian Kinsler, who's in decline but still provides above average offense from the keystone. Shortstop's a problem now that Jose Iglesias is out indefinitely with stress fractures in his shins, and Alex Gonzalez isn't the answer (I hear Stephen Drew is still available...). With Cabrera moving back to first, 22 year-old Nick Castellanos will take over third base duties and has a good shot to win Rookie of the Year honors. Rajai Davis adds a nice dash of speed to an otherwise slow team. The rotation, which features 2011 AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, reigning award winner Max Scherzer and 2013 AL ERA champion Anibal Sanchez, is just as formidable. Rick Porcello and Drew Smyly round out what should be one of the best starting fives in baseball (which would be even better, by the way, had Detroit not practically given Doug Fister away for free). Even with Joe Nathan on board the bullpen still isn't great, but that shouldn't be too much of a problem during the regular season if the rotation pitches up to its potential.

2nd Place Kansas City Royals
2013 Record: 86-76
2013 Pythagorean: 87-75
2014 Projected: 90-72
This is the last year KC has James Shields under contract, and their success is more or less riding on him. Losing Ervin Santana means the rest of the rotation (Jason Vargas, Jeremy Guthrie, Bruce Chen) is just meh, so Shields needs to pitch like an ace again in order for the Royals to contend. Rookie Yordano Ventura had a great spring training and could be the X-Factor if he hits the ground running. The lineup is significantly improved over last year's with Norichika Aoki and Omar Infante likely to provide big upgrades at right field and second base. Mike Moustakas has been on fire this spring and looks like he's finally ready to break out. He along with Salvador Perez and Eric Hosmer still have room to grow, which means Kansas City's offense is teeming with upside. Better things might also be expected of Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar, but I wouldn't count on it. Billy Butler and Alex Gordon are already established stars and just need to keep doing what they're doing. The bullpen, led by Greg Holland, is one of baseball's best. Put it all together and the Royals are well-positioned to make the playoffs for the first time since George Brett's heyday in 1985. They're still longshots to win the division and will thus have to settle for one of the two wild card spots.

3rd Place Cleveland Indians
2013 Record: 92-70
2013 Pythagorean: 90-72
2014 Projected: 88-74
Terry Francona guided Cleveland to a surprise postseason appearance last year and much of the talent remains to make another push this season. Like Kansas City, Cleveland has a nice, young team that's a little short on star power and starting pitching, but makes up for it with a deep, balanced lineup and stellar bullpen. The lineup has great depth with plus or average players at almost every position. Jason Kipnis has emerged as one of baseball's top second baseman and a legitimate MVP candidate. His double play partner Asdrubal Cabrera is due for a rebound after hitting a career worst .242/.299/.402 last year. Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn (when he comes off the DL) should also bounce back, though that's less likely with both on the wrong side of 30. Yan Gomez was quietly excellent (133 OPS+) as the team's backstop last year and helps Carlos Santana by allowing him to play mostly first base and DH. David Murphy should be a solid addition to the outfield. The rotation will miss Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir, but not so much if Danny Salazar has the breakout campaign that many expect him to have. Justin Masterson can't afford to have a repeat of his disastrous 2012 (4.93 ERA, 1.45 WHIP). Corey Kluber took a big step forward last year and needs to at least stay the same, if not improve again. John Axford makes their already great bullpen even better.

4th Place Minnesota Twins
2013 Record: 66-96
2013 Pythagorean: 63-99
2014 Projected: 71-91
The Twins aren't going to hit at all (except when Joe Mauer's in the batter's box), but at least Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes make their pitching more respectable. Jason Kubel's back after a two-year hiatus and could add some punch if he hits like he did in 2012 (30 homers, 90 RBI, .833 OPS), but will only make things worse if he repeats last year's putrid performance (5, 32, .610). Minnesota could also use a big bounce back from Josh Willingham who, like Kubel, fell apart after a big 2012, but seeing as how he's 35 that's probably not going to happen. Former top prospect Aaron Hicks could be okay, but none of this changes the fact that the Twins are woefully short on bats. The rotation, which also includes Kevin Correia and Pelfrey, should be better, but only marginally so. The bullpen's actually pretty pretty good, and Glen Perkins is one of the better closers in baseball, but it won't be enough to make up for their mediocre starting pitchers. Their best talent (besides Mauer) just isn't major league ready yet.

5th Place Chicago White Sox
2013 Record: 63-99
2013 Pythagorean: 67-95
2014 Projected: 68-94
The White Sox were active this winter after bottoming out with a 99 loss season last year, but I'm not convinced they're going to be much better this year. Jose Abreu adds an intriguing power bat to an otherwise ugly lineup. Adam Dunn and Alexei Ramirez are past their primes. Paul Konerko is at the end of the line. The outfield of Avisail Garcia, Adam Eaton and Alejandro De Aza has no power whatsoever. Even though Chicago plays in a homer-friendly park, it's not going to help the team's light-hitting position players..The starting rotation is completely dependent on Chris Sale having another elite season, so if he gets hurt they're screwed. John Danks desperately needs to bounce back from three straight injury-plagued and ineffective campaigns. Jose Quintana made major strides in his sophomore season and is a great number two or three, but probably won't ever develop into an ace. Erik Johnson needs to get his walks down if he wants to make a positive impact on the rotation. Even without Addison Reed, the bullpen should be better than it was last year, so that's a plus.