Boston Back on Top?

Can Price (center) get Boston back on track in 2016? (MLB.com)

The Red Sox start spring training today, which means it's time to assess their busy offseason and chances at contending in 2016.

 

The Good:

Boston addressed its greatest need; pitching. After stumbling through last year without an ace, Dave Dombrowski ponied up for one by handing David Price a six-year, $217 million contract. One of the best pitchers in the game, Price makes Boston's rotation drastically better and is capable of adding five to six wins by himself. 

While Price was their biggest splash this winter, the Red Sox made upgraded other problem areas as well. Their bullpen was horrendous last year, but now looks like one of the league's best with the additions of Craig Kimbrel and Carson Smith. They also took a flier on Carlos Marmol, who has the potential to be a valuable contributor if he could just get his wildness under control.

Lastly, Boston added outfield depth and a power bat off the depth in Chris Young, a lefty-masher who should fill the role that Jonny Gomes and Cody Ross have played in the past. 

While the Red Sox finished last again in 2015, it's important to remember that they were only outscored by five runs over the course of the season, so they weren't actually that bad. It's also encouraging that they were one of the best teams in the second half without a) any of the names mentioned above, and b) several star players, including Hanley Ramirez, Clay Buchholz, and Dustin Pedroia. Supplement their new additions with continued growth from Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Henry Owens, and Eduardo Rodriguez (all 23) as well as Blake Swihart (24), plus a healthy Christian Vazquez behind the plate, and Boston should be substantially better in 2016.

The Bad:

Boston's rotation remains incredibly shaky beyond Price. Rick Porcello was a major disappointment last year, and no one still has any idea what to expect from Buchholz, Owens and Rodriguez have just 32 combined major league starts under their belts, which means their futures likely include more growing pains. Third-year starter Roenis Elias offers depth but doesn't appear to be anything more than a league average starter (Wade Miley wasn't anything special, but at least he was reliable). Furthermore, Boston's rotation is now excessively left-handed, which could spell trouble in Fenway Park.

The Red Sox look great up the middle, but their corner infielders appear to be a problem. Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez were two of the worst players in baseball last year, as both supplied sub-.300 OBPs and horrific defense at offense-first positions last year. Sandoval has been steadily declining for some time now (his OPS has dropped every year since 2011) and Ramirez is 32, so it's hardly a given that either will return to form. To make matters worse, both are drastically overpaid and thus untradeable. Ramirez is also learning a new position (first base), which didn't go well last time. 

The largely unproven outfield could potentially be a mess as well. Betts is a superstar in the making, but may regress in his second full season as pitchers adjust. Rusney Castillo and Jackie Bradley, Jr. are several years older but just as inexperienced. Castillo has underwhelmed since signing a seven-year, $72.5 million contract while Bradley, as great as he is in center field, is still searching for consistency at the plate. Young's a solid fourth outfielder, but he's also 32 and will be exposed if he's forced into an everyday role.

Lastly, while the Red Sox are a mostly young team, they are still counting on several older players to be productive. Pedroia is 32 and has spent time on the disabled list in four of the past six seasons, meaning he's a good bet to get hurt again. Koji Uehara will be 41 in April and was hurt last year. David Ortiz is 40, and the list of productive hitters at his age is woefully short. Boston's offense looks a lot less scary if Papi and Pedroia are absent or otherwise not themselves, plus their bullpen won't be nearly as formidable if Uehara can't sustain his dominance.

Prediction: Boston's improved, but Toronto's still the team to beat in the AL East. Luckily for the Sox, none of their division rivals made much of an effort to improve this winter, so look for them to threaten 90 wins and a wild card berth. 

Belated MLB Postseason Predictions

AL East--Red Sox
Boston's going to take a weak AL East behind the best offense in baseball (once they start hitting with runners in scoring position, that is).

AL Central--Tigers
The Tigers are still top dogs until someone (likely the Indians) unseats them.

AL West--Mariners
Seattle added some bats this winter, Nelson Cruz chief among them, to complement what projects to be an outstanding rotation.

AL WC1--Indians
With so much in their prime talent, something has to go terribly wrong for Cleveland to miss out on the postseason.

AL WC2--Blue Jays
This is finally the year Toronto snaps its playoff drought, which stretches back to 1993.

WC: Indians win Wild Card Game when Corey Kluber shuts down the Blue Jays 3-0
ALDS: Tigers over Indians in 5
ALDS: Red Sox over Mariners in 5
ALCS: Red Sox over Tigers in 6

NL East--Nationals
Washington's going to trample the NL East as they gun for 100 wins.

NL Central--Cardinals
The most balanced team in baseball.

NL West--Dodgers
Like the Yankees of last decade, they have too much money and star power to not win their division.

NL WC1--Cubs
The addition of veteran talent (Jon Lester, Miguel Montero, Dexter Fowler) to an up-and-coming team will get them back to the playoffs.

NL WC2--Padres
The offseason additions of Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, James Shields, and Derek Norris are going to take them from sub-.500 to October.

WC: Cubs over Padres 7-3
NLDS: Nationals over Cubs in 4
NLDS: Dodgers over Cardinals in 5
NLCS: Nationals over Dodgers in 7

WS: Nationals over Red Sox in 5

Belated 2015 MLB Award Predictions

I meant to post this before the season but never got around to it. Better late than never!

AL MVP--Mike Trout
Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the best all-around player in baseball and reigning (unanimous) AL MVP.

AL Cy Young--Chris Sale
Sale was the American League's best pitcher on a per-inning basis last year, leading the loop in strikeout rate (10.8 K/9) and ERA+ (174) while just missing out on the ERA title. If he stays health enough to pitch 200 innings he has as good a chance as any. He's also in the heart of his prime at 26.

AL Rookie of the Year--Blake Swihart
Boston's catcher situation is pitiful, which means Swihart should have every opportunity to establish himself behind the plate this year.

AL Comeback Player of the Year--Alex Rodriguez
The year off is going to help his aging body and he's shown no signs of slowing down. Also wouldn't it be just like A-Rod to come back and shove it in everybody's faces?

AL Manager of the Year--Terry Francona
The Indians have the talent to overtake the Tigers in the AL Central. If they do, you can bet Francona's going to be recognized for it.

NL MVP--Giancarlo Stanton
Probably would have won last year's had he not been beaned in the face with three weeks to go in the season. The 25 year-old seems to have put it all together and is going to lead a surprisingly strong Marlins club back to contention.

NL Cy Young--Max Scherzer
By essentially replicating his 2013 Cy season last year, Scherzer proved that his award-winning campaign was no fluke. I love him in the NL East, on what is likely going to be the best team in baseball, pitching tons of games against the Phillies, Braves, and Mets. Plus at 31 he's still very close to his prime.

NL Rookie of the Year--Kris Bryant
Has met expectations thus far with an unreal spring training and hot start to his pro career.

NL Comeback Player of the Year--Joey Votto
Votto missed 100 games last year and clearly wasn't himself when he did play, posting an OPS below .800 for the first time in his career and batting nearly 60 points below his career average coming into the season. Look for the 31 year-old former MVP to put up big numbers and stay fully healthy.

NL Manager of the Year--Joe Maddon
He'll take the Cubs back to the playoffs for the first time since 2008 and might just make good on that silly Back to the Future prediction.

2015 MVP Predictions

AL MVP: Mike Trout

It’s a well-known fact that Mike Trout is the best all-around player in baseball. His combination of elite power, speed, and defense at a premium position is unmatched in the game today. 

Trout is the total package. Over the past three years he has been the sport's best hitter on a league and park-adjusted basis, leading all of baseball with a 170 wRC+ (meaning he created 70 percent more runs than a league average hitter would have in the same number of plate appearances) while also ranking first inbaserunning value. Not surprisingly, he has produced more offensive value in the last three years than anyone else, all while playing a solid, if sometimes spectacular, center field. 

As such, Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs ranked Trout as baseball’s most valuable player in each of thepast three seasons based on wins above replacement (WAR). This trio of standout seasons has resulted in three straight All-Star nods and impressive MVP results for Trout, who was runner-up to Miguel Cabrera in 2012 and 2013 before winningunanimously last season, becoming the youngest player ever to do so. 

While Trout is clearly a superstar according to these advanced metrics, his excellence is also apparent in the traditional stats that voters love. Since the start of the 2012 season he ranks first in runs scored, second in slugging percentage, third in on-base percentage, fifth in RBI (a favorite stat of MVP voters), seventh in home runs, and eighth in steals and batting average.   

Playing time is an important factor in MVP voting as well, and Trout is no slouch in this regard. Athletic, durable, and built like a tank, he’s never spent a day on the Disabled List and played in 157 of a possible 162 games in each of the last two years. Trout has a clean bill of health and should have no problems staying on the field this year. 

It also helps that Trout plays for a great team in a big market: the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels had the best record in baseball last year, winning 98 games and cruising to the AL West title by a 10 game margin over the Oakland A’s. With their two most serious challengers, the A’s and Seattle Mariners, failing to considerably improve so far this offseason, LA has to be considered favorites to repeat as division champs. And with star teammates Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton indecline, Trout is obviously the best and most indispensable player on the Halos, and thus will continue to fare well in MVP voting.  

Lastly, since Trout is just 23 years old, he’s still at an age where he should be getting better, not worse. He’s still a few years away from what are traditionally considered to be a player’s prime years (ages 25-29). Health permitting, Trout is poised to be a force in MVP voting for another decade.

NL MVP: Andrew McCutchen 

Andrew McCutchen is the National League’s answer to Mike Trout; a supremely gifted all-around center fielder at the top of his game. Per the FanGraphs version of WAR, McCutchen has been the second-most valuable position player since the start of the 2012 season, trailing only the aforementioned Angels superstar. Like Trout, ‘Cutch has won an MVP in a landslide and came close two other times. So long as he’s healthy, McCutchen figures to be a strong candidate again in 2015. 

Though McCutchen’s offensive statistics are not always overwhelming—he has just one 30-homer season on his resume and has never knocked in 100 runs—he’s produced far more offensive value than any other National Leaguer over the past three years. He owns the league’s highest batting average, on-base percentage, and wRC+ during that span, as well as its third-highest slugging percentage and weighted on-base average (wOBA).  In fact, McCutchen is the only major leaguer to exceed a .300 batting average, .400 OBP, and .500 SLG in all three of those seasons. Like Trout, he received three Silver Sluggers for those same seasons as well. 

McCutchen is also a very good baserunner, having stolen no less than 18 bases in all six of his big league seasons and averaging 24 per year at a 74 percent success rate. His defense, while not highly rated by advanced metrics, passes the “eye test” (meaning he looks like a good fielder to the casual observer) and was rewarded with a Gold Glove in 2012. 

Last season’s short DL-stint notwithstanding, McCutchen has also been exceptionally durable throughout his career. He played at least 154 games every year from 2010 to 2013. After spending the minimum 15 days on the Disabled List with a rib injury last August, he suffered no drop-off in his performance after returning and helped lead Pittsburgh back to the postseason by posting a1.042 OPS in September. And at 28 years old, McCutchen is squarely in his prime coming off four consecutive All-Star seasons, so one would not expect his performance to fall drastically this year. 

Although the Pirates do not play in a big market, they are a relevant team due to their recent success. They’ve finished second in the NL Central each of the last two seasons, making the playoffs both years after going 20 seasons (1993-2012) without a postseason berth. Their division will be more crowded this year with the emergence of the Cubs and a likely rebound from the Reds, but Pittsburgh boasts a young, quality team that should be in the mix for several more years at least. And because the Pirates are built around depth more so than star power, McCutchen is far and away the best player on his team, which guarantees MVP consideration if they do well. 

McCutchen might not be as much of a sure thing as Trout, especially if Giancarlo Stanton has another monster season or Bryce Harper puts it all together, but he’s pretty much guaranteed to be in the running for the next few years. If he doesn't win in 2015, he'll at least come close.

Bold Predictions Busts

Where did we go wrong, Prince? (RangersBlog)

With the 2014 baseball season in the rearview mirror, I can finally take a look back at how my 14 bold predictions for the year panned out (I'll give you a hint: they didn't).

1. Prince Fielder hits 40 home runs: WRONG
I thought the move to Texas would help restore some of Fielder's lost power. Instead, he got hurt for the first time in his career and was shut down in late May after going deep just three times. Yep, three.

2. The Yankees finish last: WRONG
No way this was happening given the ungodly amount of money New York spent last winter. They disappointed with 84 wins, but that was still enough to place second in the AL East.

3. Miguel Cabrera spends time on the Disabled List: WRONG
Miggy did slip a bit from his monster 2012-2013 stretch, but not because of injury woes. He played all but three games. At 31 he was still as durable as ever.

4. The Nationals will win 100 games: WRONG
The Nats had a great season, winning 96 games and their second division title in three years, but 96 wins isn't 100. Close, but no cigar.

5. Alfonso Soriano hits less than 20 homers: CORRECT
Finally! Sori finally broke down at age 38 after slamming 66 dingers in 2012-2013 combined, managing just six homers in his final major league season.

6. The Pirates revert to their losing ways: WRONG
I'm always down on the Bucs, and lately they've been proving me wrong a lot. They slipped a bit from their 94-win 2013 but still won 88 games and made the playoffs as one of the Senior Circuit's two wild card entrants.

7. Ryan Braun returns to form: WRONG
Braun wasn't bad, but he also wasn't anything close to the guy who won the 2011 NL MVP award and finished runner-up the following year. 31 today, Braun has declined precipitously over the past two years and is in danger of becoming only an average player.

8/ The Phillies finish over .500: WRONG
The Phils were terrible in 2013, going 73-89, and they were just as terrible in 2014, going 73-89 again.

9. Curtis Granderson becomes the next Jason Bay: WRONG
Granderson was surprisingly okay in his first season with the Mets, clubbing 20 home runs and working 79 walks in 155 games. He might turn into a pumpkin next year, but at least the Mets got one solid season out of him, which is more than they can say about Bay.

10. Yasiel Puig will win the National League MVP: WRONG
Right team, wrong guy. Wasn't expecting Clayton Kershaw to become the first National League starting pitcher to be named MVP since Bob Gibson.

11. Nobody on the Tigers receives Cy Young votes: WRONG
Justin Verlander fell apart and Anibal Sanchez, the 2013 AL ERA champion, came back to earth. But Max Scherzer, the 2013 AL Cy Young recipient, enjoyed another dominant season and finished fifth in the voting.

12. The Astros have a better record than the Marlins: WRONG
Houston improved a ton from its horrid 2013, climbing from a mere 51 wins to a more respectable (but still bad) 70. The 'Stros won seven fewer games than the Miami Marlins, however, who remained on the fringes of contention late into the season thanks to some surprise pitching performances and an MVP-caliber year from Giancarlo Stanton.

13. Jackie Bradley, Jr. has a better season than Xander Bogaerts: PUSH
Bogaerts was worth a measly 0.2 bWAR due to his atrocious hitting and poor fielding. Bradley was even worse at the plate (his .531 OPS fell a good 129 points shy of Bogaerts), but grated out 0.6 bWAR because of his slick glovework in center field. So Bogaerts was the better hitter, but technically Bradley was more valuable, so I'll call this one a wash.

14. The Blue Jays win the American League East: WRONG
Toronto did improve from its dismal last place finish in 2013, going from 74 wins to 83 wins and a third place finish. But they were not able to go from worst to first, as the Red Sox did in 2012-2013.

2014 NL Central Preview

Wainwright and the Cardinals will be powerhouses once again

1st Place St. Louis Cardinals
2013 Record: 97-65
2013 Pythagorean: 101-61
2014 Projected: 95-67
If there's any team in baseball capable of winning 100 games, the Cardinals are it. They are stacked, loaded with talent top-to-bottom. Their lineup is built like an American League offense and might very well be the best in baseball, particularly with Jhonny Peralta providing a big upgrade (offensively ) over Pete Kozma at shortstop. Breakouts from Kelton Wong, Matt Adams and Peter Bourjos would make this lineup a true powerhouse, but even if they struggle Yadier Molina, Matt Holliday, Matt Carpenter and Allen Craig are more than capable of carrying the load. The Cards have so much starting pitching (Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller) it's not even funny, and their bullpen is ridiculously deep--stocked with young, live arms. The defending NL champions are the clear favorites in their division and are poised to make it back to the Fall Classic--and this time they'll probably finish the job.

2nd Place Cincinnati Reds
2013 Record: 90-72
2013 Pythagorean: 93-69
2014 Projected: 87-75
Cincinnati got noticeably weaker over the offseason, losing elite table-setter Shin-Soo Choo to free agency along with durable innings-eater Bronson Arroyo. There's still enough talent to win 90 games and take a wild card spot, but there's no margin for error. Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Phillips have to hit and stay healthy, because without them the lineup is shockingly thin (unless Billy Hamilton breaks out and/or Todd Frazier has a big power year). The pitching staff needs Johnny Cueto to not get hurt this year, Tony Cingrani to step up and Mat Latos just has  to keep doing what he's doing. Same goes for Aroldis Chapman when he comes back. The Reds are top-heavy, which means they really need everything to go their way in order to reach 90 wins for the fourth time in five years.

3rd Place Milwaukee Brewers
2013 Record: 74-88
2013 Pythagorean: 76-88
2014 Projected: 84-78
Don't sleep on the Brew Crew, who should get a full season from Ryan Braun and added a much-needed arm to the rotation in Matt Garza. Braun rejoins Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Gomez, Jean Segura, Jonathan Lucroy, and breakout candidate Khris Davis to form what should be one of the better offenses in baseball. Mark Reynolds will supply additional firepower off the bench. Garza makes the rotation more formidable, though Kyle Lohse will have to hold off age for another year and Yovani Gallardo needs to bounce back from a disappointing season. Look out for Marco Estrada, who could break out and be the best starter on the staff. I like the back-end of the bullpen (Jim Henderson setting up Francisco Rodriguez), too. I could definitely see the Brewers clicking and making a Wild Card push, but if the rotation doesn't measure up then they're probably just a .500 team.

4th Place Pittsburgh Pirates
2013 Record: 94-68
2013 Pythagorean: 88-74
2014 Projected: 82-80
Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, and Starling Marte lead what should turn out to be a respectable offense mostly comprised of players in their prime yeas. The bullpen is also excellent. I have major doubts about the rotation though (besides young gun Gerrit Cole) and thus see Pittsburgh as more of a .500 team than a playoff contender.

5th Place Chicago Cubs
2013 Record: 66-96
2013 Pythagorean: 71-91
2013 Projected: 70-92
I see bounce back seasons in store for Starlin Castro, Anthony Rizzo and Edwin Jackson, plus a better year from ace Jeff Samardzija, which should be enough to get the Cubs up over 70 wins, but Chicago is still rebuilding and it's going to be another year without a World Series for Cubs fans. Young talent is on the way and should start appearing near the end of the season (Mike Olt and Junior Lake are already there), but for now the team is clearly the weakest in the NL Central and is no match for its division rivals.

2014 NL East Preview

Strasburg and the Nats are poised to run away with the division

1st Place Washington Nationals
2013 Record: 86-76
2013 Pythagorean: 84-78
2014 Projected: 96-66
The Nats are the clear frontrunners in the NL East this year. Their rotation, comprised of Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, and Doug Fister, is the best in baseball. Washington's lineup is equally formidable, with Wilson Ramos behind the plate, Adam LaRoche at first, Anthony Rendon and Ian Desmond up the middle, Ryan Zimmerman manning the hot corner, and an outfield of Bryce Harper, Denard Span and Jayson Werth. Love this team.

2nd Place Atlanta Braves
2013 Record: 96-66
2013 Pythagorean: 98-64
2014 Projected: 90-72
Even with several injuries to their starting rotation, the Braves still have enough pitching and talent to gut out 90 wins in a weak division. The lineup is going to be really good. Andrelton Simmons, Freddie Freeman, and Jason Heyward all have the potential to get better, and I don't think Dan Uggla and B.J. Upton are going to be as bad as they were last season. Evan Gattis will have to prove his strong rookie season was legit, though. And don't forget Justin Upton, possibly the most talented position player on the team. Even without Kris Medlen, Brandon Beachy, and Tim Hudson, the rotation of Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, and Ervin Santana should be solid. The Braves boasted baseball's best bullpen and top closer (Craig Kimbrel) last year, and that unit will need to step up in 2014 to help the rotation along until it gets healthier.

3rd Place Philadelphia Phillies
2013 Record: 73-89
2013 Pythagorean: 66-96
2014 Projected: 75-87
The once-proud Phillies have deteriorated into an aging, bloated team that won't be much better than .500 if everything goes their way. Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and A.J. Burnett form a strong top of the rotation, so starting pitching isn't the problem (when Hamels returns from the DL). The lineup, however, is way too old. Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Marlon Byrd,  and Carlos Ruiz are all past their primes, and Ben Revere simply isn't very good. The only player in that lineup who's young and can hit worth a damn is Domonic Brown. Philadelphia's young talent is on the way but won't be ready to contribute much in 2014 when the aging stars invariably get hurt. The bullpen isn't make or break, especially with Jonathan Papelbon losing velocity and effectiveness as he moves deeper into his 30s. Put it all together and it's going to be another losing season for the Phils.

4th Place New York Mets
2013 Record: 74-88
2013 Pythagorean: 74-88
2014 Projected: 72-90
Losing Matt Harvey for the year is a crippling blow to the rotation, though thankfully it looks as though Zack Wheeler is ready to step up in his absence. I say this is the year Bartolo Colon finally falls apart. Dillon Gee and Jonathan Niese are just merely okay. The lineup looks stronger with Curtis Granderson and Chris Young providing upgrades in the outfield, but it remains to be seen how their power will play in Citi Field. Ike Davis could really use a bounce back, but my money's on catcher Travis d'Arnaud taking a big step forward. Eric Young Jr. and Ruben Tejada provide speed, but not much else. Like Philly, New York could get to .500 if things go their way but will probably settle in the 70-75 win range.

5th Place Miami Marlins
2013 Record: 62-100
2013 Pythagorean: 64-98
2014 Projected: 69-93
Miami got better over the offseason, bringing in Jarrod Saltalamacchia  and Garrett Jones to stretch out the lineup behind Giancarlo Stanton. Christian Yelich also seems poised for a breakout, but I wouldn't bank on much from Rafael Furcal or Casey McGehee. Overall the offense still projects to be a weak one, but not as bad as last year's. Jose Fernandez fronts an intriguing but also probably not very good pitching staff, unless Jacob Turner and Henderson Alvarez break out. The Marlins won't be the laughingstocks they were last year, but a winning season is still out of the question.

2014 AL West Preview

Darvish will help the Rangers overtake Oakland in the AL West (NESN)

1st Place Texas Rangers
2013 Record: 91-72
2013 Pythagorean: 92-71
2014 Projected: 93-69
The Rangers rebuilt their lineup after letting it sag last year (when they tried to replace Josh Hamilton, Michael Young and Mike Napoli with Lance Berkman), adding Shin-Soo Choo to the top of the order and swapping a fading Ian Kinsler out for the still-in-his-prime Prince Fielder. Adding them to Adrian Beltre, Alex Rios, Elvis Andrus and Jackson Profar gives the Rangers one of baseball's best offenses in 2014. The pitching staff is iffier because of injuries to Matt Harrison and Derek Holland, but Yu Darvish looks like the AL Cy Young favorite and could have a vintage Pedro Martinez-esque season in store. I believe Martin Perez and Tanner Scheppers, though inexperienced, are capable enough to pick up the slack, and Tommy Hanson has some bounce back potential if he can shake off back-to-back poor seasons and recapture the form that made him look like a future ace from 2009 through 2011. The back of the rotation is very questionable, but I think the Rangers will hit enough and Darvish will pitch well enough to help hide their mistakes. When healthy they'll have an incredibly dangerous team and will be in the conversation for World Series favorites.

2nd Place Oakland A's
2013 Record: 96-66
2013 Pythagorean: 96-66
2014 Projected: 90-72
Oakland followed up their surprise 2012 division title by winning the AL West again in 2013, largely by relying on their depth and surprisingly good lineup constructed of fly ball hitters. I don't see them making it three in a row, though. Josh Donaldson, Brandon Moss and Coco Crisp are all due for some major regression, and I seriously doubt that Jed Lowrie will stay healthy again. Yoenis Cespedes and Josh Reddick should be better, but on the whole I think Oakland's offense will fall back to the middle of the pack after ranking third in the American League in runs scored last year. The rotation has already been hit hard by injuries, losing Jarrod Parker for the entire year and A.J. Griffin for the start of the season. That forces the A's to lean heavily on the always unpredictable Scott Kazmir, the merely solid Tommy Milone and young Sonny Gray, who has Cy Young potential but may be overworked in his first full season as a starter. The bullpen is phenomenal, if not baseball's best, and the bench looks deep as well. I'm sure the A's will find a way to plug the leaks because they always seem to find a way, but right now I see too many issues to predict a third straight division flag for Billy Beane's crew.

3rd Place Los Angeles Angels
2013 Record: 78-84
2013 Pythagorean: 81-81
2014 Projected: 84-78
Mike Trout can't possibly get any better, can he? He found a way to improve upon his monster rookie season, showing a keener eye at the plate and cutting down on strikeouts last year. This year he's focused on being more aggressive early in the count, which would allow him to take advantage of first-pitch fastballs every now and then. Don't bet against Trout reaching new heights in 2014. Unfortunately, the other 24 Angels probably aren't good enough to help LA overcome Texas and Oakland. Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols need to bounce back for this team to reach its potential, and neither one is a sure thing. David Freese improves the third base situation, but only if he avoids a repeat of his disappointing 2013. Kyle Calhoun's a popular breakout candidate and could be this year's version of Matt Carpenter or Josh Donaldson. The Angels will score runs, even without Mark Trumbo's big power bat, but the starting rotation once again figures to be their downfall. Jered Weaver isn't the ace he used to be, and C.J. Wilson is merely solid as the number two. Garrett Richards and Hector Santiago don't score anybody and are mediocre at best. The true wildcard in the rotation is southpaw Tyler Skaggs, acquired in the Trumbo trade with Arizona. Just 22 and pitching in a much more friendly environment for hurlers, Skaggs could give the rotation a big boost if he makes good on the promise that made him one of baseball's top prospects as recently as last year. If everything goes right for the Angels then a postseason berth becomes a very real possibility, and they should at least have a winning record, but they just don't enough arms to compete with the division's top dogs.

4th Place Seattle Mariners
2013 Record: 71-91
2013 Pythagorean: 67-95
2014 Projected: 77-85
Robinson Cano can't turn the Mariners into contenders overnight, especially if his performance takes a hit from trading Yankee Stadium for Safeco Field (which, combined with age, probably will). He'll still add a lot of punch to a lineup that desperately needs it after losing Raul Ibanez, Kendrys Morales, and Mike Morse. Corey Hart and Logan Morrison are intriguing additions but probably won't provide the kind of impact Seattle's hoping for. Breakout seasons from Brad Miller, Justin Smoak and Dustin Ackley are more likely and would go a long way towards beefing up the Mariners' lineup around Cano, as would another strong season from third baseman Kyle Seager.. The top of the rotation is excellent with Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma, but there's just not enough depth beyond them to vault the M's into contention. Anytime you have Randy Wolf in your starting rotation, you know you're in trouble. I see the Mariners improving over last year, but not enough to enjoy a winning season.

5th Place Houston Astros
2013 Record: 51-111
2013 Pythagorean: 57-105
2014 Projected: 59-103
The rebuilding Astros are going to be terrible once again, but at least they should be better. Most of their starting nine is in their early or mid-20s and is ripe for improvement. Adding major league caliber players such as Dexter Fowler and Scott Feldman is a step in the right direction, and they already have a couple All-Star worthy talents in Jose Altuve and Jason Castro. Chris Carter's a solid source of power and on-base percentage, but really needs to cut down on his strikeouts. Speedy shortstop Jonathan Villar has 50 steal potential if he can stay healthy and get on base at a reasonable clip, as he did during last year's debut (.321 OBP). The remade bullpen should be better, too. Best case scenario, a lot of the young talent steps up and Houston only loses 90 games instead of 100.

2014 AL Central Preview

Cabrera and the Tigers are the undisputed kings of the AL Central

1st Place Detroit Tigers
2013 Record: 93-69
2013 Pythagorean: 99-63
2014 Projected: 92-70
The Tigers have won the division three years in a row and should have no problem repeating again in 2014. Trading Prince Fielder takes some oomph out of their lineup and I think this is the year that Torii Hunter finally falls apart, but the offense is still dynamite. You have Miguel Cabrera--the best hitter in baseball--surrounded by Austin Jackson, Victor Martinez (who proved he could still hit last year) and now Ian Kinsler, who's in decline but still provides above average offense from the keystone. Shortstop's a problem now that Jose Iglesias is out indefinitely with stress fractures in his shins, and Alex Gonzalez isn't the answer (I hear Stephen Drew is still available...). With Cabrera moving back to first, 22 year-old Nick Castellanos will take over third base duties and has a good shot to win Rookie of the Year honors. Rajai Davis adds a nice dash of speed to an otherwise slow team. The rotation, which features 2011 AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, reigning award winner Max Scherzer and 2013 AL ERA champion Anibal Sanchez, is just as formidable. Rick Porcello and Drew Smyly round out what should be one of the best starting fives in baseball (which would be even better, by the way, had Detroit not practically given Doug Fister away for free). Even with Joe Nathan on board the bullpen still isn't great, but that shouldn't be too much of a problem during the regular season if the rotation pitches up to its potential.

2nd Place Kansas City Royals
2013 Record: 86-76
2013 Pythagorean: 87-75
2014 Projected: 90-72
This is the last year KC has James Shields under contract, and their success is more or less riding on him. Losing Ervin Santana means the rest of the rotation (Jason Vargas, Jeremy Guthrie, Bruce Chen) is just meh, so Shields needs to pitch like an ace again in order for the Royals to contend. Rookie Yordano Ventura had a great spring training and could be the X-Factor if he hits the ground running. The lineup is significantly improved over last year's with Norichika Aoki and Omar Infante likely to provide big upgrades at right field and second base. Mike Moustakas has been on fire this spring and looks like he's finally ready to break out. He along with Salvador Perez and Eric Hosmer still have room to grow, which means Kansas City's offense is teeming with upside. Better things might also be expected of Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar, but I wouldn't count on it. Billy Butler and Alex Gordon are already established stars and just need to keep doing what they're doing. The bullpen, led by Greg Holland, is one of baseball's best. Put it all together and the Royals are well-positioned to make the playoffs for the first time since George Brett's heyday in 1985. They're still longshots to win the division and will thus have to settle for one of the two wild card spots.

3rd Place Cleveland Indians
2013 Record: 92-70
2013 Pythagorean: 90-72
2014 Projected: 88-74
Terry Francona guided Cleveland to a surprise postseason appearance last year and much of the talent remains to make another push this season. Like Kansas City, Cleveland has a nice, young team that's a little short on star power and starting pitching, but makes up for it with a deep, balanced lineup and stellar bullpen. The lineup has great depth with plus or average players at almost every position. Jason Kipnis has emerged as one of baseball's top second baseman and a legitimate MVP candidate. His double play partner Asdrubal Cabrera is due for a rebound after hitting a career worst .242/.299/.402 last year. Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn (when he comes off the DL) should also bounce back, though that's less likely with both on the wrong side of 30. Yan Gomez was quietly excellent (133 OPS+) as the team's backstop last year and helps Carlos Santana by allowing him to play mostly first base and DH. David Murphy should be a solid addition to the outfield. The rotation will miss Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir, but not so much if Danny Salazar has the breakout campaign that many expect him to have. Justin Masterson can't afford to have a repeat of his disastrous 2012 (4.93 ERA, 1.45 WHIP). Corey Kluber took a big step forward last year and needs to at least stay the same, if not improve again. John Axford makes their already great bullpen even better.

4th Place Minnesota Twins
2013 Record: 66-96
2013 Pythagorean: 63-99
2014 Projected: 71-91
The Twins aren't going to hit at all (except when Joe Mauer's in the batter's box), but at least Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes make their pitching more respectable. Jason Kubel's back after a two-year hiatus and could add some punch if he hits like he did in 2012 (30 homers, 90 RBI, .833 OPS), but will only make things worse if he repeats last year's putrid performance (5, 32, .610). Minnesota could also use a big bounce back from Josh Willingham who, like Kubel, fell apart after a big 2012, but seeing as how he's 35 that's probably not going to happen. Former top prospect Aaron Hicks could be okay, but none of this changes the fact that the Twins are woefully short on bats. The rotation, which also includes Kevin Correia and Pelfrey, should be better, but only marginally so. The bullpen's actually pretty pretty good, and Glen Perkins is one of the better closers in baseball, but it won't be enough to make up for their mediocre starting pitchers. Their best talent (besides Mauer) just isn't major league ready yet.

5th Place Chicago White Sox
2013 Record: 63-99
2013 Pythagorean: 67-95
2014 Projected: 68-94
The White Sox were active this winter after bottoming out with a 99 loss season last year, but I'm not convinced they're going to be much better this year. Jose Abreu adds an intriguing power bat to an otherwise ugly lineup. Adam Dunn and Alexei Ramirez are past their primes. Paul Konerko is at the end of the line. The outfield of Avisail Garcia, Adam Eaton and Alejandro De Aza has no power whatsoever. Even though Chicago plays in a homer-friendly park, it's not going to help the team's light-hitting position players..The starting rotation is completely dependent on Chris Sale having another elite season, so if he gets hurt they're screwed. John Danks desperately needs to bounce back from three straight injury-plagued and ineffective campaigns. Jose Quintana made major strides in his sophomore season and is a great number two or three, but probably won't ever develop into an ace. Erik Johnson needs to get his walks down if he wants to make a positive impact on the rotation. Even without Addison Reed, the bullpen should be better than it was last year, so that's a plus.