Lackey, Lester Reunited

Lackey has showed no signs of slowing down as he enters his late-30s (Fox Sports)

On July 31st, 2014, Ben Cherington broke up the 2013 World Series champions by trading Jon Lester and John Lackey, among others, to the Oakland A's and St. Louis Cardinals, respectively. Sixteen months later, they have been reunited under former Sox GM Theo Epstein, the man who developed Lester and signed Lackey in Boston, with the Chicago Cubs.

Lester joined the Cubs last winter, signing for more money than any free agent besides Max Scherzer. Lackey stayed in St. Louis, earning the league minimum because of an injury clause in his contract. Both were terrific in their first full seasons as National Leaguers, pitching their respective clubs to the postseason and squaring off in Game 1 of the NLDS. Lackey got the best of Lester, allowing just two hits over 7 and 1/3 scoreless innings, but in the end it was Chicago who advanced to the NLCS (only to be mercilessly swept by the Mets).

Now, the onetime beer buddies and former division rivals are teammates once more. It was reported yesterday that Lackey and the Cubs had agreed to a two-year, $32 million deal. Lackey joins Lester and Jake Arrieta in the Windy City, giving Chicago a formidable trio at the top of its rotation. The Cubs have plenty of hitting, so they were wise to add a starter, snapping him at up at a reasonable price to boot.

While nowhere near the bargain the Cardinals got with Lackey last year, this still figures to be a pretty favorable contract for Chicago. They get a great starting pitcher at a fraction of the cost that David Price, Zack Greinke, and Jordan Zimmermann just inflicted on their new clubs. Even if Lackey's only half the pitcher he was last year, when he was worth roughly 4.7 WAR (after splitting the difference between B-R and FanGraphs) with a 2.77 ERA over 218 innings, he'll still be worth the money. And since it's only a two-year pact, the Cubs won't be stuck with him if he bombs.

Which, at his age, is a very real possibility. Lackey just turned 37 and has churned out over 2,600 innings (postseason included) on a Tommy John-repaired arm. Pitchers at his age are susceptible to losing it overnight, as we recently saw with Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and others. It's hard to say how he'll fare in Wrigley Field seeing as how he's started all of two games there, but there's no question his new home is tougher on hitters than his old one (I'm not too concerned about this, however, as Lackey's not a flyball pitcher--the kind who are susceptible to Wrigley's wind--and he had success at Fenway)

Lackey's due for some regression after outpitching his FIP by 0.8 R/9 and enjoying baseball's second-highest strand rate, but even if he's only average pitcher he'll still have plenty of value if healthy. That's a pretty big risk at this stage in his career, but it's absolutely a risk worth taking.

Ramirez Retires

Ramirez is retiring after 18 seasons (NBC Sports)

Another very good but not quite Hall of Fame level player retired recently as baseball waved goodbye to Aramis Ramirez. Ramirez joined Torii Hunter, who retired last week, in deciding to call it quits.

There are actually quite a few parallels between their careers, besides the fact that they hung up their spikes 10 days apart. Ramirez, like Hunter, finished his career where it started--Hunter with the Twins and Ramirez with the Pirates. Hunter was a lifelong American Leaguer who spent the bulk of his career in the AL Central, while Ramirez never left the NL Central.

Their career arcs are eerily similar as well, as both struggled for a few years before breaking out in 2001. After that they remained excellent players for more than a decade, aging remarkably well and putting up similar numbers year after year. Though both made multiple postseason appearances, neither ever played in a World Series, much less won one.

And just look how close their numbers are:

Hunter: 19 yrs 498 2B 351 HR 1,391 RBI 661 BB .277/.331/.461 (110 OPS+) 4,087 TB

Ramirez: 18 yrs 495 2B 386 HR 1,417 RBI 633 BB .283/.341/.492 (115 OPS+) 4,004 TB

Ramirez debuted with Pittsburgh at 19 in 1998. Predictably, his first few years were rough as he struggled to adjust to major league pitching, but in 2001 he blossomed into one of the best-hitting third-sackers in the game. In his first full season, Ramirez mashed 34 home runs, knocked in 112, and batted a robust .300/.350/.536 (122 OPS+).

Nowadays, such a season would merit serious MVP consideration, an All-Star berth, and a Silver Slugger. But back in 2001, when cartoonishly big sluggers were putting up videogame numbers, Ramirez got no recognition of any kind. That would become a troubling trend for Ramirez, long one of the game's most under-appreciated stars (except when the fans gave him a completely undeserved Hank Aaron award in 2008).

After failing to replicate those numbers in 2002 and the first half of 2003, Pittsburgh sent him and Kenny Lofton to the Cubbies for Jose Hernandez, a minor leaguer, and a player to be named later. It's trades like that which explain how the Pirates went 20 years between winning seasons.

Ramirez was just coming into his prime. He flourished in Chicago, taking advantage of Wrigley's friendly confines (where he was a career .307/.372/.551 hitter) to emerge as an annual 30-100-.300 threat. While he wasn't the most durable player, exceeding 150 games in a season just once after leaving Pittsburgh, he always hit when he did play.

After eight and a half productive years in Chicago, Ramirez signed on with the Milwaukee Brewers before the 2012 season. Following a stellar debut with the Brew Crew, he began to decline as he reached his mid-30s. With Milwaukee rebuilding and his skills eroding, the Brewers had no need for their expensive, over-the-hill third baseman.

So this year, which Ramirez had already acknowledged would be his last, Milwaukee dealt him to a resurgent Pirates franchise, giving him one last shot at World Series glory. Like most last-ditch efforts to procure a ring, this one didn't work out. Ironically, it was Ramirez's former team, the cursed Cubs, that got in the way. In what would be the last at-bat of his career, Ramirez grounded into an inning-ending double play. Somehow, that seems appropriate.

Circling back to Hunter, Ramirez also fell short of a few big milestones. He ends his career 14 homers shy of 400, five doubles short of 500, and 83 RBI away from 1,500. Even so, his numbers are outstanding for a third baseman; he ranks 10th in the position for home runs, doubles, and RBI.

The three-time All-Star never quite got the credit he deserved for being such a tremendous hitter year-in and year-out, probably because he was playing in the shadow of superior third basemen such as Alex Rodriguez, David Wright, Chipper Jones, and Adrian Beltre. In terms of career offensive production at the position, however, few were ever better. 

Here Comes Chicago

With Lester aboard, the Cubs have the pitching to complement their hitting (NESN)

Despite finishing last year with identical 73-89 records, the remade Chicago Cubs and White Sox are teams to be feared in 2015.

The long-suffering Cubs are coming off their fifth consecutive fifth-place finish and 106th straight season without a World Series championship (but who's counting). Even so, 2014 was an encouraging year for the beleaguered Cubbies. Franchise centerpieces Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro enjoyed bounce back years, Jorge Soler and Kyle Hendricks made promising debuts, and Jake Arrieta was one of the National League's best pitchers on a per-inning basis. Chicago ranked second in the Senior Circuit in long balls, and Kris Bryant hasn't even arrived yet. Imagine how many bombs they'll hit when he does and with Soler and Javier Baez playing every day.

Entering the fourth year of Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer's rebuilding project, Chicago appears on the brink of contention. The major league roster finally has the talent ready to compete. Aided by Soler and Hendriks, the Cubs were actually a much better team in the second half last year despite trading away their two best pitchers (Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel) in early July. Chicago went 31-28 after July 27th, winning one more game than the eventual World Series champion San Francisco Giants during that span.

It's no secret that Chicago has an abundance of young hitting talent, so the next logical step was to add quality arms this winter. The Cubs did so by re-signing Jason Hammel, who had a 2.98 ERA in 17 starts with them last year before being traded to Oakland, and swaying Jon Lester away from the Red Sox with a jaw-dropping six-year, $155 million offer that sent shockwaves throughout baseball. Chicago's new ace immediately improves a rotation that had the seventh-highest ERA in baseball last year. A vaunted big game pitcher and two-time World Series champion with Boston, Lester brings a furnished postseason track record to the Windy City as well.

Chicago also acquired arguably the game's best manager in Joe Maddon. Maddon, a two-time AL Manager of the year (2008 and 2011), helmed the Rays to five 90-win seasons between 2008 and 2013 (and 84 wins in 2009, the lone non-90 win season in that timeframe). More importantly, he has postseason experience, having managed four playoff teams in Tampa Bay including the 2008 American League champions. Unlike most of the Cubs, he's been to the World Series.

And while the Cubs didn't get the market's top catcher (Russell Martin, who went to the Blue Jays instead), they still got a good one by trading for Miguel Montero. A two-time All-Star, Montero was a four-win player in 2011 and 2012 and should remain productive at age 31. In addition to swinging a pretty solid stick, he also provides veteran leadership and experience behind the plate.

A busy offseason has prepared the Cubs for a competitive 2015 that could very well result in a playoff berth. Chicago will have its hands full with the St. Louis Cardinals, favorites to win the division for the third year in a row,  but the rest of the division looks less than formidable. The Reds are rebuilding, the Pirates keep losing talent (i.e. Martin), and the Brewers haven't improved. The Cubs could easily finish second and ride a wild card berth all the way to World Series glory.

Jose Abreu (pictured) and Chris Sale have help (GalleryHip)

The White Sox, who last made the playoffs in 2008, were essentially a .500 team last year into August (54-56 on the morning of August 2nd) before fading down the stretch. They were second in their division through the first week in June, but ultimately their thin rotation and aging lineup caught up to them.

Don't expect the same issues to derail Chicago this year. The White Sox won't have the MLB's sixth-worst rotation ERA again after trading for Jeff Samardzija, one of the game's premier power pitchers. Paired with Chris Sale, Samardizja gives the Sox an outstanding left-right punch atop their rotation. Chicago also signed David Robertson, a shutdown closer and one of baseball's best relievers over the past four years. He solidifies the back end of a leaky bullpen that finished 2014 with the third-worst ERA in the majors.

The White Sox upgraded their offense as well, inking Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche to bolster a lineup that was heavily dependent on Jose Abreu in 2014. LaRoche, a lock for 20 to 25 home runs when healthy, offsets the loss of Adam Dunn as the team's primary lefthanded power source. A former Gold Glove winner, LaRoche will also allow Abreu to DH a few times per week.

Cabrera figures to slide in behind leadoff man Adam Eaton, giving the team two quality table-setters for Abreu and LaRoche. With an OPS above .800 in three of the past four seasons, he's the kind of impact bat Chicago needs, and like LaRoche his power should play well at U.S. Cellular Field. Cabrera's also a switch-hitter, which helps keep Chicago's lineup balanced.

Like the Cubs, the White Sox seem to have an insurmountable foe in their division vis a vis the Detroit Tigers, winners of four straight AL Central crowns. They also must contend with the reigning AL pennant winners (though Kansas City will surely suffer from losing James Shields), and a solid Indians team. Even the Twins have improved. Accordingly, Chicago will be hard-pressed to make the playoffs coming out of such a competitive division, but I'd expect them to at least go .500. They're still a bit top-heavy (they're doomed if Abreu and/or Sale are lost for extended periods of time), but if their stars are healthy and perform then they'll have enough talent to make some noise.

Regardless of which side they stand on, Chicago baseball fans have plenty to be excited about. Both teams are much-improved and will be right in the thick of things, which hasn't been the case very often. Neither club has made the playoffs since 2008, but it wouldn't surprise me to see both playing next October.

An all-Chicago World Series might be a longshot, but at least there's a chance.

Mesoraco's Monster Breakout

Though inconsistent, Mesoraco has enjoyed a tremendous season (RantSports)

The Reds were swept in Baltimore yesterday, falling to the Orioles 9-7 to wrap up an ugly road trip where Cincinnati lost all but one of its six games. It's been an ugly summer for the Reds, who were very much in contention through the All-Star Break but have sputtered since, losing 30 of 45 in the second half as injuries to Joey Votto, Mat Latos and Homer Bailey took their toll.

One positive takeaway from this season, however, is that Cincinnati appears to have developed an All-Star caliber catcher. 26 year-old Devin Mesoraco's been a revelation behind the plate, emerging as one of the game's most dangerous offensive catchers in his fourth big league season. In the wake of yesterday's 4-for-4 performance, he's now batting an eye-popping .286/.365/.542 (153 OPS+) on the year with 21 home runs--most among everyday catchers. His 69 RBI rank third behind Buster Posey and Miguel Montero, both of whom have significant advantages in playing time. In the National League only Giancarlo Stanton has a superior AB/HR ratio. If the Reds weren't so helpless out of the race, he'd make a pretty good MVP candidate.

It's not unusual to see catchers break out later than position players at other positions, but Mesoraco's transformation has been truly stunning. He was a nothing before this year, a career .225 hitter with 16 home runs and -0.5 bWAR to his name. Now he's one of the best hitters in baseball. Out of all this year's biggest breakthroughs (Charlie Blackmon, Corey Dickerson, Josh Harrison, Brock Holt), none of shined brighter than Mesoraco.

The only issue with Mesoraco (besides subpar baserunning, but good luck finding a catcher who runs well) is his incredible streakiness. All year long, it seems, has been alternating hot and cold streaks for the Reds' backstop, who began the year on fire. He was hitting .500/.541/.870 through May 18th, only to post a .521 OPS with 23 strikeouts over his next 21 games. That was followed by a torrid three-week stretch ending on the Fourth of July where he blasted six home runs and OPS'ed 1.287. He leveled off through the rest of July, then hit the skids in August, batting a measly .228/.340/.354 with just two home runs.

September should bring better results for Mesoraco, and by the looks of things yesterdat, it already has.

A's Add Arms, Cubs Collect Chips

Jeff Samardzija makes Oakland's great rotation even better (ESPN)

"Going for it" has never really been part of Billy Beane's philosophy. He constructs his teams with the goal of regular season success in mind. They're built with depth and balance, designed to withstand the rigors of a long, grueling season. And they usually do, better than most. But without elite aces, top-shelf closers and dynamic power hitters, they are not built for the inherent randomness of postseason small sample sizes.

The playoffs are a different beast than the regular season. The margin for error is razor thin, and luck plays more of a role than we'd like to think. The goal is not to win 95 games in six months; it's to win 11 (or 12 if you're one of the wild card teams) in four weeks against the best competition baseball has to offer. Anyone can win a one-game playoff or five-to-seven game series. It truly is a crapshoot.

Beane knows this, and knows there's nothing anyone can do about it. He can't afford to chase the big-name power arms or sluggers that would likely put him over the top in the postseason. All he can do is build his team to make the playoffs and hope things fall into place. Hope they get the breaks and and the calls and the timely hits and big defensive plays.

Unfortunately for the Oakland A's, the stars haven't aligned for them in quite some time. It's been 25 years since Tony LaRussa guided Mark McGwire, Jose Canseco, Rickey Henderson, Dave Stewart, Dennis Eckersley and co. to Oakland's most recent World Series. For all the regular season success that Beane's teams have enjoyed in his 17 seasons as general manager of the A's--the six division titles, the seven playoff appearances, the two seasons with more than 100 wins and the six others with over 90--he's never won the big one. Incredibly, all of Oakland's wins have not produced a World Series championship in the most recent quarter-century. Beane's teams have never won a pennant, much less a World Series game.

This year, with Oakland cruising along to a third straight division title and likely the best record in baseball, Beane did something he rarely does. He traded young talent for established veteran starting pitching. Usually it's the other way around.

But with most teams still in the playoff hunt, Beane got a jump on the rest of baseball by making a big splash last weekend--nearly four weeks ahead of the trading deadline. He did business with another analytically-minded front office--that of Theo Epstein's and Jed Hoyer's Chicago Cubs--and was able to hammer out a deal more than a week before the All-Star Break. Dealing from a position of strength as one of the few seller's in a buyers' market, the rebuilding Cubs were able to pry away two top prospects and failed starter Dan Straily from the A's for a pair of talented starters; Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel, both of whom were enjoying excellent starts with the Cubs.

In Samardzija Oakland gets a very good pitcher, a 29 year-old flamethrower who struck out more than a batter per inning in 2012 and 2013. His 2.78 ERA would easily be the best mark of his career since becoming a regular starter in 2012, over a full run better than his previous best. None of his peripherals suggest he's been particularly lucky, so he's a good bet to sustain his performance going forward. Sure enough, he's been phenomenal in his first two starts with Oakland, allowing just four earned runs in 15 innings with a 10/1 K/BB ratio.

Hammel, with a 4.62 ERA (96 ERA+) in more than 1,000 big league innings, will never be mistaken for an ace, though he's pitched like one this year with a 2.98 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 4.52 K/BB ratio through his first 17 starts. Seeing as how Hammel is all of the sudden pitching the best baseball of his life at age 31 after many mediocre seasons, the Cubs were wise to sell high on him, though if he maintains his current K rate and walk rate--both career bests--he'll be very useful to the A's in the second half. His 3.32 FIP and xFIP indicate that he hasn't been especially lucky, though his .273 BABiP--34 points below his career rate--and 78.5 percent strand rate certainly suggest some good fortune. He's also on pace to set a career high in innings, which could lead to a fade down the stretch.

The trade gave the A's an abundance of arms. The stingiest team in the American League has so much pitching that they were forced to demote Tommy Milone, a crafty southpaw who hadn't lost a start since the beginning of May and carried a 3.55 ERA through the first week of July. On most teams he'd be a solid mid-rotation starter, but on the A's he isn't even good enough to crack the starting five.

As for the Cubs, they got quite a haul in outfielder Billy McKinney, Oakland's first-round draft pick last year, and shortstop Addison Russell--Oakland's first round selection the year before. Russell ranked as one of the sport's 15 best prospects coming into the season and has hit well in the minors, compiling an .897 OPS on the farm to date. McKinney has struggled in High-A Ball this year after raking Low-A last year but he's still only 19 and has plenty of time to figure things out. Even Straily, a decent starting pitcher before this year, could have some value if the Cubs get him right.

Both teams have to like this trade. The A's bolster their rotation and become the clear favorites to win not just the AL West, but the pennant as well. The early returns on the deal have been great, as Samardzija was terrific in his first two starts and Hammel pitched decently in his one. Meanwhile the future-minded Cubs unloaded Hammel, a free agent at year's end, and Samardzija, their most valuable trade chip. Arbitration-eligible this winter, he was due for a raise if the Cubs held on to him. In return they get two great pieces that figure to play a prominent role on the offensive juggernaut being assembled on the farm. They make the Cubs' already bright future even brighter and will likely be key contributors going forward for Chicago, who appear well-positioned to win a championship before the decade's out.

But if the Cubs win a title before Billy Beane does, then it will probably be because this trade went horribly wrong for him--like if Samardzija blows out his arm or Hammel regresses into the mediocre pitcher he was before this year. The AL West is a much more challenging division than the NL Central, which could also limit their effectiveness. Some have criticized this move as a redux of the ridiculed James Shields-Wil Myers trade from two offseasons ago, and it's possible that Beane just made a similar blunder. He hasn't had the best luck, you know.

Appreciating Aramis Ramirez

Ramirez is congratulated after his solo home run last night (BeaumontEnterprise)

The Milwaukee Brewers, as you may have heard, are off to a fabulous start. They won nine games in a row before falling to the St. Louis Cardinals Monday (and again last night). At 10-4 they have the best record in baseball (tied with Oakland), and everyone's wondering if this is merely an early season fluke or the first step towards contention for a team that lost 88 games last year and barely finished above .500 the year before.

So with the Brewers firing on all cylinders, I decided not to write about lightning rod Ryan Braun, or likely MVP candidate Carlos Gomez, or up-and-comers Khris Davis/Jean Segura, or the starting rotation, or Francisco Rodriguez. I wanted to talk about Aramis Ramirez for a minute.

The 35 year-old third baseman has been one of the main driving forces behind Milwaukee's early surge. He's played all 14 games thus far and has done his job as the team's cleanup leader, leading the Brew Crew with 12 RBI and driving in at least one run in ten games (eight of which were victories). He's also batting a scintillating .351, which leads the team as well.

And yet nobody seems to talk about Ramirez. He's made only two All-Star teams and has received only one Silver Slugger, which is strange considering he's one of the best-hitting third basemen of all-time. He has more home runs (356) than all but a dozen third basemen, including Dick Allen, Ron Santo, and George Brett. He ranks twelfth in doubles (443--more than Mike Schmidt) and has knocked in more runs (1,288) than Edgar Martinez, Matt Williams and Ken Boyer. His .501 career slugging percentage ranks 11th at the position, just a hair below the .509 career marks of Harmon Killebrew and Eddie Mathews.

(Quick tangent--for reasons I still don't understand, Ramirez was given the NL Hank Aaron Award, which honors the most outstanding offensive performer in each league, in 2008. While his season was very good--.289//380/.518, 27 homers, 111 RBI, 44 doubles--nothing about it qualifies as outstanding. How the award didn't go to Albert Pujols (1.114 OPS) or Ryan Howard (48 home runs, 146 RBI) or Lance Berkman (.986 OPS) is beyond me.)

If he can hang on a few more seasons, Ramirez will likely finish his career with around 500 doubles, 400 home runs, and 1,400 to 1,500 RBI, which, combined with his solid rate stats (.286/.345/.501), would make him one of the ten best offensive third basemen to ever play the game.

He's done so by quietly and consistently producing great numbers for over a decade, first with Pittsburgh, then with the Cubs, now with the Brewers. Starting in 2001, when he was just a 22 year-old kid with the Pirates who batted .300/.350/.536 with 34 home runs, 112 RBI, 40 doubles and 323 total bases, he's averaged 26 home runs and 93 RBI per season. During that span, he hit more home runs and piled up more RBI than any third baseman besides Alex Rodriguez (who was a shortstop until 2004) and Miguel Cabrera (who spent a lot more time at other positions, namely first base and outfield).

In that same span, Ramirez batted over .300 seven times. He topped 25 home runs ten times, exceeding 30 on four occasions. He had seven seasons with at least 100 RBI. He surpassed 30 doubles nine times, clubbing as many as 50 in 2012, when he led the league (his only meaningful black ink, unless you like sacrifice flies, in which case Ramirez was tops in 2002 and 2003). His OPS+ has been over 120 ten times.

(What impresses me most about Ramirez is that in this era of free-swingers, he's had only one season with triple digit strikeouts--100 on the nose in 2001).

Whenever Ramirez has fallen, he always comes back just as strong as before. When he nosedived in 2002 (to a woeful .666 OPS) following his breakout season, be bounced back with 27 home runs and 106 RBI in 2003. When he missed the final 35 games of 2005 with a strained quad, Ramirez rebounded with arguably the best season of his career in 2006 (career high 38 home runs, 119 RBI, and 333 total bases). When his career looked like it was headed south in his early 30s after he missed half of 2009 and slumped in 2010, he revived his bat like fellow Dominican David Ortiz and hit as well as he ever did.

Now in his age-36 season, he's proving he still has something left in the tank after missing 70 games last year. Like always, he's returned to form in the wake of a setback. The resilient Ramirez is doing what he's always done: hit.

2014 NL Central Preview

Wainwright and the Cardinals will be powerhouses once again

1st Place St. Louis Cardinals
2013 Record: 97-65
2013 Pythagorean: 101-61
2014 Projected: 95-67
If there's any team in baseball capable of winning 100 games, the Cardinals are it. They are stacked, loaded with talent top-to-bottom. Their lineup is built like an American League offense and might very well be the best in baseball, particularly with Jhonny Peralta providing a big upgrade (offensively ) over Pete Kozma at shortstop. Breakouts from Kelton Wong, Matt Adams and Peter Bourjos would make this lineup a true powerhouse, but even if they struggle Yadier Molina, Matt Holliday, Matt Carpenter and Allen Craig are more than capable of carrying the load. The Cards have so much starting pitching (Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller) it's not even funny, and their bullpen is ridiculously deep--stocked with young, live arms. The defending NL champions are the clear favorites in their division and are poised to make it back to the Fall Classic--and this time they'll probably finish the job.

2nd Place Cincinnati Reds
2013 Record: 90-72
2013 Pythagorean: 93-69
2014 Projected: 87-75
Cincinnati got noticeably weaker over the offseason, losing elite table-setter Shin-Soo Choo to free agency along with durable innings-eater Bronson Arroyo. There's still enough talent to win 90 games and take a wild card spot, but there's no margin for error. Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Phillips have to hit and stay healthy, because without them the lineup is shockingly thin (unless Billy Hamilton breaks out and/or Todd Frazier has a big power year). The pitching staff needs Johnny Cueto to not get hurt this year, Tony Cingrani to step up and Mat Latos just has  to keep doing what he's doing. Same goes for Aroldis Chapman when he comes back. The Reds are top-heavy, which means they really need everything to go their way in order to reach 90 wins for the fourth time in five years.

3rd Place Milwaukee Brewers
2013 Record: 74-88
2013 Pythagorean: 76-88
2014 Projected: 84-78
Don't sleep on the Brew Crew, who should get a full season from Ryan Braun and added a much-needed arm to the rotation in Matt Garza. Braun rejoins Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Gomez, Jean Segura, Jonathan Lucroy, and breakout candidate Khris Davis to form what should be one of the better offenses in baseball. Mark Reynolds will supply additional firepower off the bench. Garza makes the rotation more formidable, though Kyle Lohse will have to hold off age for another year and Yovani Gallardo needs to bounce back from a disappointing season. Look out for Marco Estrada, who could break out and be the best starter on the staff. I like the back-end of the bullpen (Jim Henderson setting up Francisco Rodriguez), too. I could definitely see the Brewers clicking and making a Wild Card push, but if the rotation doesn't measure up then they're probably just a .500 team.

4th Place Pittsburgh Pirates
2013 Record: 94-68
2013 Pythagorean: 88-74
2014 Projected: 82-80
Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, and Starling Marte lead what should turn out to be a respectable offense mostly comprised of players in their prime yeas. The bullpen is also excellent. I have major doubts about the rotation though (besides young gun Gerrit Cole) and thus see Pittsburgh as more of a .500 team than a playoff contender.

5th Place Chicago Cubs
2013 Record: 66-96
2013 Pythagorean: 71-91
2013 Projected: 70-92
I see bounce back seasons in store for Starlin Castro, Anthony Rizzo and Edwin Jackson, plus a better year from ace Jeff Samardzija, which should be enough to get the Cubs up over 70 wins, but Chicago is still rebuilding and it's going to be another year without a World Series for Cubs fans. Young talent is on the way and should start appearing near the end of the season (Mike Olt and Junior Lake are already there), but for now the team is clearly the weakest in the NL Central and is no match for its division rivals.

St. Louis Surging

The Cardinals can do no wrong

On paper, the St. Louis Cardinals were not baseball's best team coming into the season. Heck, most people didn't even pick them to win their own division, which got decidedly more competitive with the Houston Astros playing in the American League West this year.

It's surprising, then, that the Redbirds are the MLB's winning-est team (41-22) entering play today. They've held sole possession of first place in the NL Central since the last day in April, exceeding expectations thanks to depth, timely hitting, stellar starting pitching and strong defense.

What the Cardinals lack in power (they've outhomered only four teams so far) they make up for by raking with runners in scoring position. The Cards have batted a collective .339/.410/.457 in such situations. If sustained over the course of the season, that performance would set MLB records for highest batting average and OBP.

But even taking expected regression into account, St. Louis still sports a very dangerous lineup. The Cards fielded one of the league's best offensive units last year (without Albert Pujols, no less), so it should come as no surprise that they rank at or near the top of the league in most offensive categories again this season. St. Louis leads the National League in scoring, runs per game, batting average, and on-base percentage.

The lineup doesn't have the star power of a Miguel Cabrera or Robinson Cano. Instead, it's a balanced group of veterans and professional hitters. The biggest and most pleasant surprise has been Matt Carpenter's blossoming into an All-Star. Yadier Molina has evolved into the NL's answer to Joe Mauer while outplaying last year's MVP Buster Posey (Molina's .354 batting average and 19 doubles top the NL). 36 year-old Carlos Beltran brings the power with 14 home runs and 42 RBI. Allen Craig's compensating for his power outage by leading the team in RBI. Third baseman David Freese finally emerging emerged from the depths of his painfully slow start with a 19-game hitting streak. Middle infielder Daniel Descalso and slugging first baseman Matt Adams have been excellent coming off the bench but haven't played much because the team has enjoyed unusual health. Freese is the only starter to spend time on the Disabled List.

What's more impressive is that St. Louis has been an offensive juggernaut even though its best hitter (Matt Holliday) hasn't been himself. Pete Kozma--Rafael Furcal's replacement at shortstop--hasn't done much offensively. Jon Jay's struggles caused manager Mike Matheny to drop him out of the leadoff spot in favor of on-base machine Matt Carpenter.

As potent as the offense has been, the starting rotation has been every bit as incredible. Cardinals' starters have compiled a 2.73 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 3.57 K/BB ratio despite missing Chris Carpenter (out since late February), Jaime Garcia (done for the season) and Jake Westbrook (out since May 9th but expected to return by the end of the week).

It all starts with staff ace Adam Wainwright, now fully recovered from the Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2011 season. He's pitching even better than he did in the two seasons before his operation, when he finished in the top three of Cy Young voting both years. Lance Lynn has improved in his second season as a full-time starting pitcher and probably deserves to make the All-Star team again. NL ERA leader Shelby Miller is well on his way to winning Rookie of the Year unless Yasiel Puig keeps hitting like Barry Bonds. Rookie call-up Tyler Lyons has pitched very well since Garcia was lost for the season.

The Cardinals' lone weakness so far has been unreliable middle relief. The bullpen's been mediocre, allowing too many baserunners (1.40 WHIP) and runs (4.33 ERA). That said, Trevor Rosenthal and Edward Mujica might be the best 8th and 9th inning combo around. The 23 year-old Rosenthal recovered from a shaky April and hasn't allowed an earned run since April 24th. Mujica is proving himself to be one of baseball's premier closers since replacing Mitchell Boggs (who replaced the injured Jason Motte) midway through April. He's a perfect 18-for-18 in save opportunities and his 0.61 WHIP leads all relievers.

In addition to receiving plenty of run support, Cardinals pitchers have also benefited from steady defense behind them. St. Louis is not a quick team by any means (only the Cincinnati Reds have stolen fewer bases) but its fielders don't make many mistakes on the balls they do reach. The surehanded Cardinals have made fewer errors than every team not named the Baltimore Orioles (who had a trio of Gold Glove defenders at premium positions last year). Molina--the anchor--is fast cementing his status as one of the best defensive catchers of all time; when he retires we'll probably be talking about him the same way we talk about Johnny Bench and Ivan Rodriguez.

On the whole, it seems that the Cards have been playing over their heads a bit in the early going. They're definitely good enough to make the playoffs, but there's enough room for regression (Miller, Carpenter, Molina, the RISP numbers, health) that I feel confident saying they won't maintain their 105-win pace all year. I don't think they'l have baseball's best record when the dust settles, either (I'm feeling Atlanta or Cincy), but they should be able to keep it up for a few more weeks at least. Expect them to continue their winning ways with 12 of their next 15 games against the Mets, Marlins, Cubs, and Astros.

NL Central Preview

1st Place--Cincinnati Reds
2012 Record: 97-65
2012 Pythagorean: 91-71
2013 Projected: 93-69
The lineup is much more fearsome with on-base machine Shin-Soo Choo setting the table for Joey Votto and Jay Bruce. Votto is going to hit like he did in the first half last year and win the MVP award. Bruce's home run totals have increased every year and he's one of the few sluggers with a legitimate shot at 40 homers. Brandon Phillips is as steady as the come at second base. Todd Frazier can hit, too, and represents a big improvement over Scott Rolen even if he can't play Gold Glove caliber defense like his predecessor did. Zack Cozart is a talented out-machine much like Drew Stubbs, but it is his age 27 season so maybe he takes a big step forward. The starting rotation that started 161 games last year returns intact. Mat Latos and Johnny Cueto are bona fide aces. You know what you're getting from Bronson Arroyo--200 innings of above average ball. Homer Bailey finally emerged as a legit midrotation starter last year and should be just as good, if not better, in 2013. Mike Leake is serviceable. Aroldis Chapman and Jonathan Broxton head what should be a solid bullpen.

2nd Place--St. Louis Cardinals
2012 Record: 88-74
2012 Pythagorean: 93-69
2013 Projected: 86-76
Make no mistake about it; this team is built to hit. St. Louis is stacked offensively and has a wealth of starting pitching, but injuries have already struck down several key players (Rafael Furcal, David Freese, Chris Carpenter) and figure to get Allen Craig and Carlos Beltran sooner or later. Yadier Molina is also poised for regression following his career year. The rotation is just as deep as the lineup, with Adam Wainwright looking to pitch like the Cy Young candidate he was before Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2011 season. Jaime Garcia and Lance Lynn are surprisingly underrated. Shelby Miller could win Rookie of the Year. Jake Westbrook is the weakest link, and he's a perfectly fine 4 or 5 for most teams. The bullpen isn't great, especially with Jason Motte out for quite some time, but there are enough arms to keep the 'pen decent enough.

3rd Place--Milwaukee Brewers
2012 Record: 83-79
2012 Pythagorean: 85-77
2013 Projected: 81-81
The lineup is shockingly average around Ryan Braun. There are no real holes, but nobody else is really that good either except for Aramis Ramirez, who's going to be 35 this summer. Corey Hart is hurt. Rickie Weeks always disappoints. Carlos Gomez blends power and speed like B.J. Upton. Jonathan Lucroy might turn out to be a top-ten catcher in his age 27 season. The rotation gets a nice boost from Kyle Lohse, who'll have to pitch like a number two behind Yovani Gallardo (who's not a true ace). Marco Estrada is a strikeout machine and is going to have a nice year, but the bottom of the rotation is scary. The bullpen is even worse. The Brewers could hang around for awhile, but they're not going to contend.

4th Place--Pittsburgh Pirates
2012 Record: 79-83
2012 Pythagorean: 78-84
2013 Projected:77-85
I see another losing season in Pittsburgh's future. The offense features plenty of pop but little speed outside of Starling Marte and Andrew McCutchen. 'Cutch is a legit MVP candidate, but his sluggish second half leads me to believe he'll slip a bit in 2013. Pedro Alvarez finally harnessed his big-time power last year, but he's a feast-or-famine hitter who whiffs way too much and is prone to lengthy slumps. Late-bloomer Garrett Jones also hits for power but is just average when it comes to getting on base. I keep waiting for Neil Walker to get better, so perhaps this is the year he bats .300 with 15 bombs. The starting rotation lacks depth and an ace to lead it. A.J. Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez are both good but hardly qualify as number ones. James McDonald is so-so, stellar first half aside. Jonathan Sanchez won't be the answer. The bullpen is unimpressive, but don't be surprised if Jason Grilli is an All-Star closer and/or leads the league in saves.

5th Place--Chicago Cubs
2012 Record: 61-101
2012 Pythagorean: 65-97
2013 Projected: 67-95
Reasons to watch: Anthony Rizzo's power, Starlin Castro's errors, Carlos Marmol's meltdowns, Jeff Samardzija's starts.
Yup. That pretty much sums it up.