Explaining Chris Davis's Sudden Drop-off

2014 hasn't been kind to last year's home run and RBI champion, or anyone who drafted him onto their fantasy team.  Crash back to earth is what Chris Davis has done, reverting into a replacement level player after finishing third behind Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout in the 2013 AL MVP race. His current OPS is 300 points lower it was a year ago.  He's hitting not just below his weight (230) but also the Mendoza line, and he leads the league in strikeouts. Crush has regressed into the whiff machine he was prior to 2012, leaving a gaping hole in the heart of an Orioles' lineup that was counting on 30-40 home runs and at least 100 RBI from him.

So how has Davis turned from Babe Ruth into Mark Reynolds overnight? As is usually the case in these scenarios, the BABiP of the slumping player in question has taken a major nosedive. It's at .250 right now, 74 points below his career average and 86 points less than what it was last year. Given that his line drive rate is over 26 percent--a career-best--Davis appears to be suffering from horrible luck this year. It doesn't help that like most lefthanded pull hitters, he faces defensive shifts on a regular basis. Based on his .145 average on ground balls (.199 last year), it would seem Davis has lost more than a few base knocks to these strategic alignments.

The sharp downturn in BABiP fully explains why his batting average is down almost 90 points from last year.  That's not the only thing that jumps out from his batted ball data, though. He's also showing slight dips in his fly ball rate, from 45.7 percent last year to 40.3 percent this year, and home run/fly ball rate, from almost 30 percent to just a shade under 23 percent. The latter is likely a result of normal regression to the mean, as it's very difficult to hit three fly balls out of the yard for every ten put in play.

So bad luck combined with aggressive defenses and normal regression--all factors outside of one's control--have combined to put a hurt on Davis, but the simple truth is that he hasn't the same hitter he was in 2013. Less complete, less dangerous. Where he's really struggled is against offspeed pitches and breaking stuff, as Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs points out here. Davis has more or less been the same hitter he was against fastballs as he was last year, but this year he's been a mess against non-heaters. Pitchers have exploited this weakness, throwing him fewer fastballs in favor of more curves and changeups, against which Davis has been helpless.

All that flailing has led to the second-worst worst contact rate and strikeout rate of his career. It also doesn't help that he's seeing more first pitch strikes than he did last year, causing him to fall behind early in the count (never good for a big-swinger such as Davis). He's been more selective, which should be a good thing, but based on the previous fact it seems that his discipline may be working against him, especially when he lets those first pitch fastballs go by. It's good to see him laying off more balls, but it would probably serve him well to be more aggressive against pitches in the zone, particularly early in the count when he's more likely to see a fastball. After that, he's going to see more breaking and offspead stuff used to put him away.

(I also might as well bring up the fact that Davis spent time on the Disabled List earlier in the season with an abdominal strain. Before going on the DL his OPS was .754; since returning, it's .688.)

Is there any hope for Davis, whose numbers have declined every month since May? Well for all his struggles, he continues to do what he's always done best: hit for power. With six home runs over the last month and 19 on the season, he's still on pace for around 30 homers and 80-85 RBI--essentially a repeat of his 33-85 production two years ago. With a playable on-base percentage over .300 (which should only improve as his luck turns), there's a regular spot for him in Baltimore's lineup. Just not in the middle of it. 

Toronto Tailspinning

The Blue Jays have sputtered in recent weeks as their bats have gone cold

The Toronto Blue Jays have been in first place everyday for the last month, but the way they're playing they could be in third place by the end of the week.

Since beating the St. Louis Cardinals 3-1 on June 6th to extend their winning streak to six games, the Blue Jays have fallen apart. They got shut out in the remaining two games of that series with the Cards (at home, I might add) as Shelby Miller and Jaime Garcia, neither of whom qualify as world-beaters by any stretch of the imagination, silenced Toronto's bats. The Blue Jays proceeded to lose two of three to the Twins, a mediocre team in every sense of the word.

Then Toronto hit the road for a 10-game trip, and that's where things really fell apart. They split a four game set against a very beatable Baltimore pitching staff (losing to an abysmal pitcher in Bud Norris and a green one in Kevin Gausman) then got swept by the Yankees in the third iteration of the House That Derek Jeter Ruth Built. The Bluebirds saw their division lead dwindle from 4.5 games to 1.5 games as they fell first to Masahiro Tanaka--a legit Cy Young candidate--then to lesser pitchers Chase Whitley (a rookie) and David Phelps.

After that it was on to Cincinnati for an interleague duel with the Reds. The Blue Jays blasted the home team with 14 runs in the series opener, but while giving up nine to one of the National League's five worst offenses. The following day was worse, as Mike Leake stifled Toronto, J.A. Happ got hammered, and the Jays were routed 11-1.

Desperately needing a win to salvage the series finale and end their rough road trip on a high note, Toronto took a tough 4-3 loss as Johnny Cueto outdueled R.A. Dickey. The Blue Jays lost more than the game, though. Brett Lawrie had to leave when he was hit by a pitch that fractured his index finger, and was placed today on the DL. To make matters worse their best hitter, Jose Bautista, left the game with a strained hamstring and is day-to-day.

So, after an incredible month of May and strong start to June, the Blue Jays gave up most of their gains over the past two weeks by dropping 11 of 15. Their lead over the AL East, once a comfortable margin of six games, is now a mere 1.5 over the Orioles and Yankees. They'll have to regroup at home against Joe Girardi's Bombers, who are on a roll of their own after winning 10 of their past 16 and are looking to make up more ground in the standings, perhaps even grab hold of first if they pull off another sweep.

It's not like the Jays have home field advantage, though, as they've actually played better away from the Rogers Centre. They're fortunate they won't have to face Tanaka, for their slumping bats wouldn't stand much of a chance against the Japanese phenom currently leading all of baseball in wins and the league in ERA+. Make no mistake, Toronto's offense is to blame for their recent run of futility; they've scored three runs or fewer in 11 of their past 16 games, of which the Jays have lost 10. They'll need to be better against Whitley tonight, Phelps tomorrow and the ageless Hiroki Kuroda on Wednesday, which will be tough without Lawrie and Bautista.

Because if they don't, Toronto will lose first place in a matter of days. And once that happens, in a division as competitive as theirs, they might never get it back.

Sox Spring Struggles Continue

The Red Sox were booed off the field after Thursday's loss to Toronto (CBS Boston)

The Red Sox lost again last night, 1-0 at Tropicana Field on a pinch hit, walk-off double by Cole Figueroa, the latest no-name member of the Rays to channel his inner Dan Johnson/Jose Lobaton and sink the Sox with a clutch hit.

The reeling Red Sox, coming off a nightmare homestand in which they dropped all six games as they were swept by the Tigers and Blue Jays, have now lost eight in a row. Their last win came 10 days ago. Last year, their longest losing streak was three games. This year, they haven't even had a winning streak that long.

But as we get deeper and deeper into the season, it's becoming painfully obvious that this year's team, despite returning many of the same players, is not last year's team, which won 97 regular season games and the World Series.

The most notable difference has been the hitting, which has been a problem since day one. The 2013 Boston Red Sox fielded the best offense in baseball, leading the majors in runs scored and a host of other categories. This year's offense has been one of the worst in the league, ranking in the bottom five in runs, hits, home runs, batting average, slugging percentage, OPS, and total bases.

Much of their struggles can be blamed on the absences of Jacoby Ellsbury, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and the recently returned Stephen Drew, as their replacements (Jackie Bradley, Jr., Grady Sizemore, A.J. Pierzynski) have not been up to snuff. Without Ellsbury, Boston's been much less aggressive on the basepaths, reverting to the station-to-station team they've generally tended to be throughout their history (with the exception of last year, when they ranked third in the AL in steals and were the most efficient basestealing team in baseball).

That's fine if you're following the Earl Weaver playbook, relying on walks and three-run homers, but this year's club has been light on power. With the exception of David Ortiz, nobody is providing pop--Papi is the only regular with a slugging percentage above .420. In fact, Ortiz accounts for nearly one-third of Boston's longballs thus far, contributing 11 of their 37 big flies.

He, Mike Napoli, and Xander Bogaerts are the only Red Sox position players who have not disappointed. Last year, the Red Sox had an OPS+ of 108 or better at every position except third base. This year, the same can be said of only three positions; second base, shortstop and DH. The outfield, comprised of Bradley, Sizemore, Shane Victorino, Jonny Gomes, and Daniel Nava, has been atrocious, batting a combined .220/.291/.339. I bet the Red Sox wish they had Nelson Cruz right about now.

So without power, speed, and the ability to manufacture runs (the Sox have a .678 OPS with men on base), scoring has been an issue all season long. Boston's averaging just 3.94 runs per game, well below last year's league leading total of 5.27. If the Red Sox are going to catch fire and turn their season around, the bats need to wake up.

Until they do, most of the blame for Boston's sluggish start rests on their shoulders. The pitching has been very good for the most part (with the exception of last week, when Boston starters proved incapable of putting together a quality start), compiling the league's sixth-lowest ERA. Before Felix Doubront landed on the Disabled List with a strained shoulder after his most recent start, the original/intended rotation had failed to miss a start. Jon Lester and John Lackey have been stellar at the top of the rotation, with Lester looking like a Cy Young candidate again and Lackey proving that last year's revival was no fluke. Jake Peavy was great before his last two turns yielded 20 hits, and 11 earned runs, spiking his ERA by almost a run-and-a-half.

The rest of the rotation has been a disappointment, though. Clay Buchholz has been an unmitigated disaster, starting this season as poorly as he did 2012. Nothing seems to be physically wrong with him, though, so as long as he stays healthy (a big if for him) he should pitch better. Peavy has allowed a home run in every start, a disturbing trend, to say the least. He's been inconsistent and might not be much better than Ryan Dempster was last year. Doubront failed to take the step forward that many were hoping for in his third season, and is now hurt.

On the bright side, the bullpen, aside from Edward Mujica, has been terrific. Of the eight relievers Boston's used this year (excluding Mike Carp's catastrophic five-walk inning), Mujica's the only one with an ERA over 3.10. Everyone else--Burke Badenhop, Andrew Miller, Junichi Tazawa, Craig Breslow, Brandon Workman, Chris Capuano, and of course Koji Uehara--has been fantastic, which is why the bullpen's collective ERA currently sits below three, at 2.97. The 'pen is Boston's biggest strength at the moment.

But a good bullpen only gets you so far. The Sox aren't going anywhere until they start scoring runs and supporting their pitchers. Drew's return will help in that regard, but they still have major holes to address at third base (Will Middlebrooks has been terrible again), behind the plate (Pierzynski and David Ross aren't cutting it), and in the outfield, where Bradley, Nava, and Sizemore look lost offensively.

 John Farrell's daily Joe Maddon-esque juggling hasn't worked, so I think it's time for him to stop tinkering and settle on a lineup. Bat Bogaerts leadoff, Dustin Pedroia second, Ortiz, third, then Napoli, Gomes, Drew, and Victorino. Playing musical chairs with the batting order isn't going to make whoever hits near the bottom of it magically disappear, and this is a veteran team that would appreciate some stability.

It's very rare that a Red Sox team, playing half its games in one of the best hitter's parks in baseball, doesn't hit, so I have to believe the offense will come around as the weather warms. But this unit is too old and thin to be the run-scoring machine it was last year. The lineup has too many weaknesses and probably won't be much better than average offensively, unless they make some major changes at the trade deadline (still more than two months away).

Incredibly, Boston's horrible start has not doomed their season. Despite dropping eight in a row, they're still only six games out of first place in the shockingly mediocre AL East. The Red Sox are still very much in contention, and with a few good weeks could surge right back to the top the division. If the offense clicks, Buchholz figures it out and the Sox stay healthy, they'll be fine.

But dammit, they need to start hitting. And soon.

Boston's Bats Bouncing Back?

Boston's bats haven't done much in the early going (YawkeyWayReport)

April's almost over and the slow-starting Red Sox are only half a game out of last place in the AL East. It goes without saying that the defending champions have disappointed thus far, primarily because their seemingly stout offense has slumped. It's why they've scored 15 fewer runs than they've allowed despite sporting the fifth-lowest ERA in the American League.

After averaging an MLB-best 5.27 runs per game last year, Boston's barely averaged four runs per game (4.04, to be exact). They've been held to three runs or less nine times already, which accounts for more than one-third of their games. Power has been scarce, as David Ortiz and Mike Napoli are the only players with more than two home runs. On a related note, the Sox have the fifth-lowest OPS in the league thanks to their ugly .241/.329/.379 batting line. 

Boston's been even worse in scoring opportunities, batting just .235/.321/.353 with men on base. With runners in scoring position, those numbers sink to .218/.307/.338. The Red Sox haven’t done themselves any favors by bouncing into 28 double plays--most in baseball. They simply aren't getting timely hits when they need them.

Boston's bats haven't been a total failure--they do rank second in the AL in doubles, fourth in walks, and sixth in home runs and total bases, after all. But as long as the lineup keeps hitting like Mario Mendoza with men on base, it won't be able to match the run-scoring machine that churned out 853 runs last year and paced the sport in a host of other offensive categories. 

To be fair, though, the Red Sox haven't been at full strength. After losing Jacoby Ellsbury, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Stephen Drew over the winter, Boston began the season without Shane Victorino, who strained his right hamstring in spring training and opened the year on the Disabled List. Slugging third baseman Will Middlebrooks missed three weeks with a calf strain. Dustin Pedroia hurt his wrist in a play at second base, which probably explains why he hasn't hit a home run yet.

As a result, the Red Sox didn't play a game with their intended starting nine until April 25th. Now fully healthy, Boston took two of three from Toronto over the weekend, battering Blue Jays' pitching for 16 runs and 27 hits. With their cold spell hopefully behind them, the Sox look to gain momentum from their eight game homestand starting tomorrow night against the last-place Tampa Bay Rays. Depleted by injuries, Tampa's thin rotation should help Boston's bats get back on track.