Nelson Cruz Massive Mistake for Seattle

Cruz rode a career year with the Orioles to a massive payday (NBCDFW)

The Seattle Mariners added some much-needed righthanded thump to their lefty-heavy lineup, signing Nelson Cruz to a four-year deal worth $57 million. Cruz, 34, led the major leagues with 40 home runs last year, 13 of which qualified as "just enough" according to ESPN's home run tracker. He also knocked in 108 runs and was worth 4.7 bWAR en route to a seventh-place MVP finish, the first time in his career he drew MVP votes.

That's way too much for an aging, injury-prone slugger who hardly walks, can't run, and plays abysmal defense. Last year, coming off a PED suspension, Cruz settled for a one-year, $8 million contract with the Orioles. No question he was undervalued at the time. But now, another year older, and he gets four years and almost $60 million? In the same neighborhood as Victor Martinez, a far superior hitter in every sense (but also two years older)? Sounds like an overpay to me.

Cruz re-established his value with a tremendous 2014, but Seattle would be foolish to expect another season like that from the three-time All-Star. He is, after all, past his prime and only once played more than 130 games before suiting up for 159 last year, though that number will be more attainable if he abandons playing the outfield altogether and settles in as Seattle's everyday DH (a likely scenario given Safeco's spacious outfield). His 2014 bWAR total exceeded his total from 2011-2013 combined (4.3 bWAR), reflecting just how much of a fluke last year was for him.

It's going to look even flukier after moving into the hitter's nightmare that is Safeco Field. Cruz has benefitted enormously from friendly home parks in Texas and Baltimore throughout his career, posting an .890 OPS at home compared to .769 on the road. Playing half his games in Seattle, plus more in LA and Oakland, is probably going to push his OPS down to that road figure or possibly below, making him a league average bat with decent power (20-25 homer upside).

Basically, I hate this deal for Seattle because Cruz can only provide value with his bat at this stage in his career, and he's going to a place that suffocates offense. He'll improve Seattle's lineup some, but won't provide an impact worthy of his lavish contract, especially given his durability issues. I think the Mariners will be luck to get 20 bombs and one WAR out of Cruz next year, which would be very valuable given their current position on the win curve. But a few years from now, Cruz won't even be able to give them that, and they're going to regret committing so many years and dollars to an injury-prone, one-dimensional corner outfielder/DH in his mid-thirties.

Dunn Done

Dunn's swan song saw him hit .219 and blast 22 home runs (RantSports)

Adam Dunn, the pre-eminent three-true outcome hitter of our time, is calling it a career. His contract is up, and so is his time in the Show.

The 34 year-old slugger has hit his last home run, drawn his last free pass, and struck out for the final time. Those events comprised nearly half of Dunn's career--49.93 percent of his plate appearances, to be exact. With 2,379 whiffs, Dunn retires as the active leader in strikeouts and ranks third on the all-time list, behind only Jim Thome and Reggie Jackson. Four times Dunn led the major leagues in strikeouts, most recently with a career-high of 222 in 2012--one short of Mark Reynolds'dubious record.

At least Dunn's whopping strikeout figures were accompanied by impressive power totals. His .253 ISO is exceptional--18th-highest among players with at least 8,000 plate appearances (better than Harmon Killebrew, Hank Aaron, and Willie McCovey)--and his 462 round-trippers were exceeded only by Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez during Dunn's playing days. He's tied with Jose Canseco, Dunn's second most similar batter, for 35th all-time. And while Dunn never led the league in big flies, he topped 40 on six occasions, same as Willie Mays, Mark McGwire, Thome, and Pujols. Pretty prestigious company. If he had just managed two more home runs in 2009 and 2010, when he finished each season with 38, he'd trail only Babe Ruth in 40-homer seasons.

Although Dunn struck out too much and was too slow to hit for high averages (he peaked at .267 and settled at .237 for his career), he made up for his lack of hits with high walk totals. From Dunn's first game to his last, nobody worked more walks. In fact, no one was within 150 of him. He reached triple digits eight times in his career, leading the bigs twice. Accordingly, his career .364 OBP is very good, 28 points above what a league average hitter would have been expected to produce in the same parks.

Despite walking and striking out so much, Dunn still managed to drive in tons of runs. The two-time All-Star had six seasons where he knocked in more than 100 and two others with over 90. Pretty good for a guy who only once eclipsed 150 hits in a season.

The great tragedy of Adam Dunn's career is that he just seemed to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. He was in Cincinnati during the Ken Griffey, Jr. era, which didn't end well for anybody. He spent two seasons with Washington when they were terrible, just missing their recent rise to dominance. Then he signed a backloaded four-year, $56 million contract with the Chicago White Sox after his age-30 season. It would be the last big league deal he'd ever sign.

This year, with the White Sox once again going nowhere, he was granted a trade to the Oakland A's at the end of August, just in time to experience their mega-collapse. The A's backed into the postseason, giving Dunn his first crack at playoff baseball after 2,001 regular season games. Oakland promptly lost the Wild Card playoff to Kansas City in heartbreaking fashion, 9-8 in 12 innings. Dunn never left the bench, ending his career without ever having batted in the postseason. That was pretty hard to do considering he played for five teams across 14 seasons of the Wild Card era.

If Dunn had gotten into that game, though, we have a pretty good idea of how his at-bat would have transpired. He might have gone deep. He could have walked. He probably would have struck out.

Dick Allen: A Better Jim Rice

So yesterday's Ken Boyer vs. Ron Santo post got me thinking about another debate between a borderline Hall of Fame guy and a recent inductee. With Jim Rice's place in the Hall of Fame secure, Dick Allen deserves a plaque as well. And if there's only room for one of them, well, then it should be Allen no question.

But Rice is in, and Allen is not. The voters deemed Jim Ed worthy of a berth in Cooperstown. How they did not come to the same conclusion with Allen is beyond my comprehension. I mean, if Jim Rice is a Hall of Famer (which he is, even if many feel that he shouldn't be), then Dick Allen is absolutely, positively a no-brainer Hall of Famer. Rice made it into Cooperstown on his hitting and his hitting alone, and the numbers clearly show that Allen was a better baseball player. At the very least, Allen was a better hitter and more deserving candidate, essentially Jim Rice 2.0.

Let me explain. The similarities between the two as men and ballplayers are numerous. Both were tempestuous African American stars aggravated by the racist cities and times in which they played; mercurial sluggers with few friends in the media and stands; intense players worn down by the even more intense fans and press corps that all but suffocated them. Rice paid dearly for his surly demeanor, languishing on the writer's ballot for the full 15 years before he finally squeezed through Cooperstown's doors in his final year of eligibility. Allen, an even more polarizing figure, never came close to induction and is still waiting for the call.

Both were powerfully built righthanded sluggers with vicious swings that put the fear of God into opposing pitchers. Rice cracked 382 home runs, topping 40 once and winning three home run crowns. Allen socked 351, also exceeding 40 once and leading the league twice. Each was named AL MVP during the 1970s--Allen in 1972 and Rice six years later. Neither won a championship and both will be forever linked with teams that endured historic late season collapses (the '64 Phillies and '78 Red Sox) even though both enjoyed exceptional individual campaigns as their teams crumbled around them.

Rice played 16 years, one more than Allen, but because the former DH'ed and had better luck with injuries he was able to squeeze an additional 340 games out of his career. Thus, his counting numbers surpass Allen's in virtually every category except for walks and steals. Allen was much better at his peak though, with three seasons of at least 7.5 bWAR compared to Rice's one. Their numbers are remarkable similar on a 162-game basis:

Allen: 102 R 171 H 30 3B 7 3B 33 HR 104 RBI .292/.378/.534 313 TB
Rice: 97 R 190 H 29 2B 6 3B 30 HR 113 RBI .298/.352/.502 315 TB

Both burst on the scene with monster rookie seasons at the age of 22 (Allen copped Rookie of the Year honors and Rice would have too had he not debuted the same year as Fred Lynn), beginning a run of excellence that lasted over a decade until they dropped off dramatically before their 35th birthdays. Rice lost his lifetime .300 average, finishing at .298 like Mickey Mantle, and fell short of other notable milestones such as 400 homers, 1,500 RBI and 2,500 hits. Allen also fell short of 400 dingers, barely making it to 350, and failing to reach even 2,000 hits.

Allen last 3 years: .246/.334/.410  32 HR  142 RBI  0.5 bWAR
Rice last 3 years:  .263/.330/.395  31 HR  162 RBI  0.0 bWAR

For a long time it looked as though that sudden, steep decline was going to keep Rice out of the Hall. With Allen it's even more pronounced, leaving his counting numbers well short of what many consider Hall of Fame quality from an outfielder.

But Allen's career totals are close to Rice's, and his slash stats are much better. Allen walked a lot--much more than Rice, who rarely took a free pass unless it was intentional. So while Rice outhit Allen .298 to .292 for their careers, Allen has the much higher on-base percentage at .378 to Rice's .352. That advantage, combined with the former's 32 point edge in slugging percentage, means Allen was a far better hitter over the course of their careers. The numbers bear this out, as Allen's .912 OPS, .400 wOBA and 156 OPS+ dwarf Rice's .854, .375 and 128.  Allen also far outpaces Rice in batting runs above average, with 435 to Rice's 297, and outranks him by almost 25 offensive WAR, which combines hitting and baserunning. Allen was an above average baserunner while Rice was below average, but that's not enough to explain the huge gap in their offensive production.

Rice has no excuse, as he benefitted from batting in the middle of Boston's fearsome lineups and playing half his games in baseball's best hitter's park at the time. Allen did not enjoy these same advantages. He played in the National League, which everyone knows was the superior league during the 1960s and '70s (read: more competitive), and did not enjoy the same level of supporting talent or the perks of playing in Fenway.

This is apparent in their neutralized numbers. Rice's barely change, as his friendly home park negated the difficulties of playing the offense-suppressed 1970s and '80s. Allen's figures improve considerably, however. His batting line jumps to .307/.396/.561, raising his OPS to more than 100 points higher than Rice's. He's also credited with 378 homers, 1,261 RBI, nearly 2,000 hits and almost 1,000 walks. Still borderline numbers, but more comparable to Rice's at least.

 There's not much point comparing their defense because frankly, both were terrible. If Rice had been good he wouldn't have DH'ed so much, but in his defense the Red Sox already had a tremendous left fielder in Carl Yastrzemski when he arrived. Rice eventually turned himself into a halfway decent defender as he learned to handle the Green Monster, but never came close to matching the defensive prowess of his predecessor. Allen butchered every position he played; third base, first base and left field, but his offense was especially valuable during his time at the hot corner. The difference between a bad defender and a worse defender is not enough to compensate for the huge disparity in their hitting.

Even though Rice played the equivalent of two more full seasons and played better defense, Allen comes out significantly ahead in WAR. Baseball Reference, Baseball Prospectus, and FanGraphs all credit him with roughly 60 for his career, about 10 more than Rice. Based on his Hall of Stats rating of 115, Allen is a worthy Hall of Famer. With a score of just 82, Rice is decidedly not.

And yet, nearly 40 years after his last game, Allen is still on the outside looking in. Blame the writers for stiffing him, the fans for not supporting his candidacy, and Allen for being a giant jerk, but Richie's waited long enough. His omission from the Hall is one of Cooperstown's most glaring oversights. How could they pass over a hitter who was so great, Hall of Fame caliber for 15 years, for so long?

Allen made many enemies and they've kept him from coming anywhere close to induction. He never even received 20 percent of the vote in any of his 14 years on the ballot. Based on his on-field accomplishments, Allen should have been inducted long ago, and had he been a swell, stand-up guy like Dale Murphy he probably would have.  Rice didn't have a lot of friends either, but eventually stances softened on him as people came around to seeing what a great hitter he had been. When is that going to happen with Allen? Will it ever?

Sabermetrics punched Bert Blyleven's ticket to the Hall of Fame, and with the same concerted effort Allen could get there one day as well. Unfortunately there just doesn't seem to be that same level of support for him. The grudges against him aren't going away. Who's clamoring for Dick Allen to take his rightful place in the Hall of Fame? Not very many, it seems, and if they're out there they're not being vocal enough. Allen might not seem like a Hall of Famer at first glance, but once you do a little digging it becomes as clear as day. He was one of the best hitters of not just his era, but baseball history. The Hall of Fame is a lesser place without him.

They say time heals most wounds, and in this writer's opinion enough time has passed to forgive Allen for his personal flaws and let bygones be bygones. The Wampum Walloper was baseball's best hitter for more than a decade, on par with contemporaries Frank Robinson, Hank Aaron, Mickey Mantle, and Willie McCovey, and deserves to be commemorated in Cooperstown for it. Allen's in his early 70s now, and he might not be around much longer. Better to induct him while he's still alive and able to enjoy it, lest the Hall waits too long to open its doors to him a la Ron Santo. The ceremony will be long overdue, of course, but better late than never.

Explaining Chris Davis's Sudden Drop-off

2014 hasn't been kind to last year's home run and RBI champion, or anyone who drafted him onto their fantasy team.  Crash back to earth is what Chris Davis has done, reverting into a replacement level player after finishing third behind Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout in the 2013 AL MVP race. His current OPS is 300 points lower it was a year ago.  He's hitting not just below his weight (230) but also the Mendoza line, and he leads the league in strikeouts. Crush has regressed into the whiff machine he was prior to 2012, leaving a gaping hole in the heart of an Orioles' lineup that was counting on 30-40 home runs and at least 100 RBI from him.

So how has Davis turned from Babe Ruth into Mark Reynolds overnight? As is usually the case in these scenarios, the BABiP of the slumping player in question has taken a major nosedive. It's at .250 right now, 74 points below his career average and 86 points less than what it was last year. Given that his line drive rate is over 26 percent--a career-best--Davis appears to be suffering from horrible luck this year. It doesn't help that like most lefthanded pull hitters, he faces defensive shifts on a regular basis. Based on his .145 average on ground balls (.199 last year), it would seem Davis has lost more than a few base knocks to these strategic alignments.

The sharp downturn in BABiP fully explains why his batting average is down almost 90 points from last year.  That's not the only thing that jumps out from his batted ball data, though. He's also showing slight dips in his fly ball rate, from 45.7 percent last year to 40.3 percent this year, and home run/fly ball rate, from almost 30 percent to just a shade under 23 percent. The latter is likely a result of normal regression to the mean, as it's very difficult to hit three fly balls out of the yard for every ten put in play.

So bad luck combined with aggressive defenses and normal regression--all factors outside of one's control--have combined to put a hurt on Davis, but the simple truth is that he hasn't the same hitter he was in 2013. Less complete, less dangerous. Where he's really struggled is against offspeed pitches and breaking stuff, as Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs points out here. Davis has more or less been the same hitter he was against fastballs as he was last year, but this year he's been a mess against non-heaters. Pitchers have exploited this weakness, throwing him fewer fastballs in favor of more curves and changeups, against which Davis has been helpless.

All that flailing has led to the second-worst worst contact rate and strikeout rate of his career. It also doesn't help that he's seeing more first pitch strikes than he did last year, causing him to fall behind early in the count (never good for a big-swinger such as Davis). He's been more selective, which should be a good thing, but based on the previous fact it seems that his discipline may be working against him, especially when he lets those first pitch fastballs go by. It's good to see him laying off more balls, but it would probably serve him well to be more aggressive against pitches in the zone, particularly early in the count when he's more likely to see a fastball. After that, he's going to see more breaking and offspead stuff used to put him away.

(I also might as well bring up the fact that Davis spent time on the Disabled List earlier in the season with an abdominal strain. Before going on the DL his OPS was .754; since returning, it's .688.)

Is there any hope for Davis, whose numbers have declined every month since May? Well for all his struggles, he continues to do what he's always done best: hit for power. With six home runs over the last month and 19 on the season, he's still on pace for around 30 homers and 80-85 RBI--essentially a repeat of his 33-85 production two years ago. With a playable on-base percentage over .300 (which should only improve as his luck turns), there's a regular spot for him in Baltimore's lineup. Just not in the middle of it. 

Thome Retires with Tribe

Jim Thome, the most recent member of baseball's 600 home run club and eighth to join, announced his retirement yesterday after signing a one-day contract with the Cleveland Indians, marking the end of his incredible 25 year baseball journey.

Thome, who last played in 2012, came full circle by going out with Cleveland, the team that drafted him in the 13th round of the 1989 amateur draft. Two years later he was in the big leagues for a cup of coffee, a September call-up who on October 4th launched the first of his 612 career home runs, taking Steve Farr of the Yankees deep at the Stadium.

It didn't take long for Thome's trademark power and batting eye to emerge, and by 1994 he was the club's everyday third baseman. Despite the player's strike he still managed to pop 20 homers, something he would do in every season but one through 2010. A key member of the great Indians squads of the 1990s, Thome won his first and only Silver Slugger at the hot corner in 1996 before moving across the diamond the following year to accomodate Matt Williams. Thome responded with his first 40-homer season and All-Star appearance, the first of six and five, respectively.

While more than half of Thome's regular season home runs would come in an Indians uniform (his 337 with Cleveland are a franchise record, nearly 100 more than second place Albert Belle's 242), all of his postseason long balls benefitted Cleveland. A dynasty that never was, the Tribe made the playoffs six times from 1995 through 2001, reaching the World Series twice but losing both times. A driving force behind those great teams, Thome compiled some impressive playoff statistics along the way. The 6'4, 250 pound behemoth cranked 17 home runs (tied with David Ortiz for seventh all-time) and knocked in 36 over the course of 11 different postseason series with Cleveland, showcasing his monster power on the game's biggest stage. Unfortunately for him and through no fault of his own, the Indians were unable to win the big one. Thome would go on to play in four postseasons after leaving Cleveland, but never again would he come to bat in the World Series or go yard in a playoff game.

Thome left Cleveland after the 2002 season--the best of his career--in which he batted .304/.445/.677 with 52 homers, 118 RBI and 122 walks, good for 7.4 bWAR, a league-high 197 OPS+ and a seventh place finish in the AL MVP voting. Thome capitalized, parlaying those monster numbers into a six-year, $85 million deal with the Phillies. He continued to produce huge power numbers in Philly, tying Alex Rodriguez for the major league lead in home runs with 47 in 2003 and belting 42 more the year after that. In 2005 he had his first off year, starting slow out of the gates and then getting hurt before he was shut down for the season in August. His replacement, a young but equally large slugger named Ryan Howard, came up and smashed 22 big flies in roughly half a season, enough to win NL Rookie of the Year honors and convince Phillies management he was the first baseman of the future.

Thome was traded to the White Sox, where he won AL Comeback Player of the Year and made his last All-Star appearance in 2006, reaping the benefits of the homer-friendly U.S. Cellular Field. Late in the 2009 season he was traded to the Dodgers, who were seeking a big bat for the stretch run. He did nothing with LA, bounced back to have one last big season in 2010 with Minnesota (25 home runs, 1.039 OPS), and after that was basically a spare part. He played his last game as a member of the Baltimore Orioles, with whom he crushed his 612th and final career home run on September 26th, 2012 at the age of 42. Though Thome was limited to part-time duty in his final few seasons, he remained an effective hitter to the end because of his power and on-base ability. After his disastrous 2005 season, Thome's OPS+ never dipped below 112.

After spending his first dozen seasons with Cleveland Thome bounced around a lot, changing teams seven times in the second half of his career and even returning to the Rock and Roll Capital of the World briefly in 2011. Nevertheless, he left a tremendous legacy with his original team, where he's tops in home runs and walks and top-five in most offensive categories.

But Thome is more than one of the greatest Indians of all-time: he's one of the best sluggers in baseball history. An offensive force for two decades (think Harmon Killebrew with longevity), Thome is absolutely a first-ballot Hall of Famer. There are the 612 home runs, of course (not including the 17 he hit in the postseason), a record for first basemen and seventh-most all-time. He knocked in nearly 1,700 runs and scored almost 1,600 others. He reached base 4,144 times, more than Jimmie Foxx, Rod Carew, and Reggie Jackson. His .956 career OPS is the 18th-highest mark in baseball history. He ranks 24th all-time in slugging percentage and RBI, 23rd in runs created, and 20th in extra base hits. His 13.8 AB/HR ratio has been bettered by three men; Mark McGwire, Babe Ruth, and Barry Bonds.

Still not convinced? He had eight seasons with at least 30 dingers and 100 runs, walks, and RBI, two more than Albert Pujols and Stan Musial combined. From 1994, Thome's first full season, through 2012, he outhomered everyone not named Alex Rodriguez (an admitted steroid user) and walked more often than anyone besides Barry Bonds (also juiced). Only Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez, both busted PED offenders, piled up more RBI. A-Rod, Derek Jeter, Johnny Damon, and Chipper Jones were the only ones to score more runs. Per JAWs, Thome's one of the ten-best first basemen of all-time, with virtually the same number of bWAR that Frank Thomas accumulated in his career. The Big Hurt, who actually spent more time as a DH, just sailed into the Hall on his first try with over 90 percent of the vote.

Thomas is actually a very good comparison for Thome and comes up as his second-best comp after Sammy Sosa. Their careers overlapped for many years and they both reached the 500 home run milestone in 2007, each without a whisper of PED use despite their huge power numbers in the heart of the steroid era. Thome had better luck with injuries and so he lasted a little longer, but as you can see their numbers are very similar:

Thomas 1990-'08: 10,075 PA 521 HR 1,704 RBI 1,667 BB .301/.419/.555 156 OPS+ 73.7 bWAR
Thome 1991-'12: 10,313 PA 612 HR 1,699 RBI 1,747 BB .276/.402/.554 147 OPS+ 72.9 bWAR

Thomas was better than Thome, but only by the slimmest of margins. In Fact, JAWs has Thomas as the ninth-best first baseman of all-time and Thome barely behind him at tenth. So if Thomas truly is a deserving first ballot Hall of Famer (which he is), then Thome has to be, too. He's just as worthy of that honor as he is of the new eight-foot bronze statue at Progressive Field.

2014 HR Derby Teams

Stanton, who competed in 2012, is my favorite to win this year's event (RantSports)

With baseball's Home Run Derby scheduled to take place tomorrow night at Target Field in Minnesota, here's my preview of the two home run derby teams:

AL
Jose Bautista (captain)
An All-Star for he fifth straight year, Bautista's continued to add his to burgeoning home run total, which has been exceeded only by Miguel Cabrera since the start of the 2010 season. With 17 dingers on the year he's tied for seventh among major league outfielders tied with National Leaguers Justin Upton and Andrew McCutchen. It's too bad Bautista's teammate Edwin Encarnacion is injured, but Bautista's not a bad consolation prize.

Yoenis Cespedes
The defending champion is back to defend his title. Surprisingly the first-time All-Star is not having a noteworthy season power-wise, as his 14 home runs are bettered by two teammates (Josh Donaldson and Brandon Moss--both with 20) and are tied for 13th among major league outfielders, fewer than Marlon Byrd, Michael Brantley and Marcell Ozuna and as many as Charlie Blackmon, Khris Davis, and Mike Morse, among others. Of course, I still wouldn't bet against Cespedes winning the thing again.

Josh Donaldson
This time last year, few people outside Oakland knew who Donaldson was. Now he's the starting third baseman for the American League in the All-Star Game and participating in the home run derby, well-deserving of both honors. His 20 home runs lead all third basemen and rank sixth in the American League.

Brian Dozier
Though his power has faded lately (only one long ball since June 14th), Dozier's 16 bombs are easily the most of any second baseman, as no one else has more than 13 at the keystone this year. Almost at his career high of 18, he has twice as many as any other Twin--eight more than Josh Willingham--and while he was passed over for the All-Star Game at least he'll get the opportunity to put on a show for his hometown fans.  With more home runs at Target Field (9) than any other Twin has hit all season, he's been Minnesota's best power source and most worthy representative for the event.

Adam Jones
Coming off back-to-back 30 homer seasons, Jones has continued to provide plenty of pop for the Baltimore Orioles, a club with more home runs than every team except the Toronto Blue Jays.  Jones, with his 16 home runs--tenth among big league outfielders--has been a big part of that, especially given the disappointing performances of Chris Davis and JJ Hardy and season-ending injury to Matt Wieters.

Notable exceptions: Nelson Cruz, Jose Abreu, Miguel Cabrera

NL
Troy Tulowitzki (captain)
The Senior Circuit's leading All-Star vote-getter is also its home run leader with 21 and slugging percentage leader at .613. Of course, Coors Field has played a large role in that production, with two-thirds of his home runs coming at home, where his slugging percentage has been almost 300 points higher than it's been on the road. Still, that doesn't diminish the terrific season he's been having so far, one that's made him an early favorite to take home his first MVP award.

Todd Frazier
After going yard 19 times in each of the past two seasons, Frazier's already done so 18 times in 2014, tops among National League third basemen. The first-time All-Star has more home runs than any third baseman besides Josh Donaldson, who's also competing in the derby but on the American League side, and more than any of his Reds teammates as well.

Justin Morneau
Though Morneau fell short in the NL Final Vote to Anthony Rizzo after taking an early lead in the polls, he still gets to make a return to Minnesota as one of the five members of the NL home run squad. Morneau isn't the most deserving selection, as his 13 home runs have been exceeded by 16 first basemen (including Mark Reynolds, Ryan Howard, and Lucas Duda) but he's a sentimental one. And if he can't go back to the Twin cities as an All-Star, I'm fine having him there on the derby team. That said, if given the choice I'd much rather see a Pedro Alvarez or Paul Goldschmidt in his stead.

Yasiel Puig
Puig's 12 home runs don't jump off the page, but the way he hits them sure does. Power is only a part of Puig's all-around game, but few hit balls farther or with more flair than he does.
And seeing as how the first-time All-Star is only 23, I'm sure this will be just the first of many derby appearances for the National League's answer to Mike Trout. Even if he doesn't do much tomorrow night, I'm still stoked to see him in his first All-Star Game on Tuesday.

Giancarlo Stanton
The Senior Circuit's home run and RBI leader was made for an event like this. Finally healthy after two injury-plagued seasons, Stanton's slugging his way to a potential 40-homer season and just earned his second All-Star nod in three years. One of the rare players who can hit the ball out of any stadium, Stanton shouldn't have much trouble clearing the fences at Target Field. He's my prediction to win.

Notable exceptions: Rizzo, McCutchen, Upton

Giambi Got Screwed

Love him or hate him, Giambi's been ruthlessly victimized by defensive shifts

The widespread implementation of defensive shifts in recent years has taken God knows how many hits away from lefty pull hitters such as David Ortiz, Mark Teixeira, Adam Dunn, Ryan Howard, and Jason Giambi. How frustrating is it to watch hitters smash ground balls and line drives into short right field, only to see a re-arranged defender waiting there to gobble it up and throw them out by 20 feet at first base. Once reserved for Ted Williams and few others, shifts nowadays pose an obstacle for many players with ground ball pull tendencies, even those who bat from the right side like Edwin Encarnacion.

Giambi, now a 43 year-old role player for the Cleveland Indians, estimates he's lost 200 hits to shifts over the course of his 20 year career, which is a huge deal. Imagine if all those hits went through for base knocks; what would Giambi's numbers look like then?

If one gives him credit for 200 additional hits, his career batting average soars from .277 to .304. People today don't think of Giambi as a .300 hitter because he's batted over .260 only once since 2003, but he hit as high as .342 in 2000 and owned a .309 career average through the 2002 season. Surely we'd have a much different impression of him if he had a higher career batting average than Willie Mays and just a smidge below Hank Aaron's. Similarly, his OBP would jump from .399 to .422, which would rank 17th all-time and second only to Barry Bonds for players that debuted after Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier.

Even if we assume all those hits would have been singles (and some surely would have been some doubles), giving Giambi 200 extra total bases raises his career slugging percentage from .517 to .545, which would rank just outside the top-30. His career OPS would be at least 50 points higher than it is now, and at .966 would rank as the 15th highest mark of all-time. If Giambi's estimates are correct, he would be one of the select few players to exceed a .300 batting average, .400 on-base percentage and .500 slugging percentage for his career.

Steroids aside, Giambi didn't dominate long enough to merit serious Hall of Fame consideration. Without the shift, however, he'd be a slam dunk for Cooperstown with career slash stats in the same neighborhood as Manny Ramirez, Frank Thomas, and Mickey Mantle. So that's something to think about the next time your favorite player rips a rocket into the hole and heads back to the dugout with nothing to show for it. Shifts aren't just costing him hits: they could be costing him a Hall of Fame plaque as well.

50 Homer Dreams

Balls are flying off the bats of Abreu (pictured), Cruz, and Encarnacion.
But can they keep it up? (Chicago CBS Local)

At the halfway point of the season and three players, all American Leaguers, are on pace to finish the season with approximately 50 home runs.

Considering that the past six seasons have produced only two 50-homer campaigns--Jose Bautista's out-of-nowhere 54 in 2010 and Chris Davis's equally surprising 53 last year--it's doubtful that even one of them will reach the 50 homer plateau. But as it stands, all three are on track to do so or at least come close, and that alone is reason enough to stop and take notice.

Atop the leaderboards are Nelson Cruz and Jose Abreu, both with 26 bombs under their belts after going deep yesterday to break a three-way tie with Edwin Encarnacion, who's still stuck on 25. All are on pace to establish career highs, if not reach the 50 home run benchmark that defines a truly historic offensive campaign (well, unless you're Brady Anderson).

Baseball has not had multiple hitters with 50 or more home runs in the same season since 2007, when Alex Rodriguez (54) and Prince Fielder (50) both cleared the half-century mark. To find the last time two American Leaguers did so, you'd have to go back more than a decade to 2002, when A-Rod ripped 57 and Jim Thome tagged 52.

Three hitters exceeding 50 home runs in the same season is exceptionally rare, so much so that it's only happened twice in baseball history (which, if I'm not mistaken, dates back to the stone age). Both times performance enhancing drugs were involved, of course. The most recent occurrence was in 2001, when an "enhanced" Barry Bonds belted 73 to break Mark McGwire's single season record and eclipse fellow National Leaguers Sammy Sosa (64) and Luis Gonzalez (57). The only other time a trio topped 50 was in another monumental season for long balls; 1998, when McGwire mashed 70, Sosa socked 66, and Ken Griffey Jr hammered 56 in the most exciting home run race since Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris duked it out for Babe Ruth's record back in the summer of 1961.

Abreu, Cruz, and Encarnacion are all great power hitters, but certainly not on the Hall of Fame levels of those aforementioned stars. Which begs the question: can any of these guys reach 50 home runs, let alone all three?

Cruz, the oldest of the bunch at 34, appears to be the long shot due to his age and the fact that he's never even hit 35 home runs in any season. He also must contend with the tough pitching staffs of the AL East, which boasts dominant hurlers such as Masahiro Tanaka, Jon Lester, and David Price, among others. Lastly, he's historically struggled in August, in which he has the fewest home runs and second-lowest OPS of any month, meaning he's a good bet to tail off in the second half.

That said, Cruz does a great job of getting the ball in the air with more fly balls than ground balls to date, an approach well-suited to a homer-friendly park like Camden Yards, where Cruz plays half his games. Additionally his 24.3 percent HR/FB rate, a career high, is pretty reasonable considering that he's been over 21 percent three times before, including last year. So while I wouldn't bet on Cruz, I wouldn't count him out just yet, either.

For Encarnacion, this year could be shaping up to be a repeat of last year, when he also went yard 25 times in the first half, only to fade down the stretch and end the season at 36. Still, he does have more home runs than anyone since the start of the 2012 season, and he's also two and a half years younger than Cruz, who also hails from the Dominican Republic. The notoriously streaky first baseman will need to avoid another month like his April (two taters, .413 SLG) or replicate something approximating his monster month of May (18 dingers, .763 SLG). Like Cruz, Encarnacion also does a great job of lifting fly balls, with nearly half of his batted balls qualifying as such. His HR/FB, just south of 20 percent, is a career high but still has room to grow, especially during the summer months when the ball tends to fly out of ballparks.

As for Abreu, no one really knows what he's capable of. It is his first season, after all, which means it's probably only a matter of time before he endures a prolonged slump, as his 73/18 K/BB ratio seems to suggest. There's also no way he'll be able to sustain his current HR/FB rate, which is currently pushing up against 36 percent. He'll need to start hitting more fly balls to balance out his inevitable regression in that department, for his fly ball rate is currently lower than his HR/FB rate, which just screams fluke.

Then again, the Cuban rookie needed just 71 games to bash his 26 home runs, so with a full slate of games in the second half it's not unreasonable to think he'll at least match that number, if not exceed it. His future is the hardest to predict, but he's done nothing except set the world on fire since his debut back in April. it doesn't hurt that he calls the homer-friendly U.S. Cellular Field home. He's also just 27, in the heart of his prime and at the peak of his powers, so who's to say he can't hit 50? For now, at least, McGwire's rookie record of 49 four-baggers appears to be in jeopardy, as does Albert Belle's franchise record of the same number.

If I had to bet on one to cross the 50-homer threshold, I'd pick Abreu simply because his raw power is so ridiculous. Cruz and Encarnacion are playing at their full potential, but there's a possibility, however slight, that Abreu hasn't reached his yet and could get even better with experience, a frightening proposition for any person who throws a baseball for a living. The sky's the limit for him, assuming he can avoid another trip to the Disabled List this year. Hopefully he's one and done.

Speaking of the DL, Cruz is always a health-risk, and frankly I wouldn't be surprised if he fell short of 40 even without getting hurt. Encarnacion's not a model of durability either: like Cruz, he has only one with season with more than 150 games played. I'm also not convinced he has 25 more homers in him this year, especially given his propensity for withering cold spells, but fully ackowledge that a great month of July could put him close to 40 with a third of the season left to play.

But regardless of where they end up, all three have put together marvelous first halves worthy of All-Star recognition. They're definitely worth keeping an eye on as the summer progresses, because if all three maintain their current paces they'll become the first trio of American Leaguers to hit 50 home runs in the same season. That would be pretty cool.

Cruz Crushing

Cruz has been one of 2014's biggest first half surprises (MLB.com)

When the Baltimore Orioles signed Nelson Cruz to a one-year, $8 million deal during spring training, nobody expected him to emerge as the team's best player. Not on a roster loaded with younger, in-their-prime standouts such as Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, and Manny Machado. Cruz appeared to be a player in decline, and there were serious doubts about what he'd be able to give the Orioles. He was, after all, about to turn 34, coming off a 50-game ban for PED use, and leaving a hitter's paradise in Arlington behind. Why do you think so many teams passed on him?

Well, Cruz quickly erased those doubts by homering in the first two games of the season and hasn't stopped hitting since. He slumped briefly at the beginning of June, but seems to have turned it around with three home runs and nine RBI in his past ten games, including a game-tying grand slam on Wednesday night that sparked the Orioles to an extra-inning victory.

Cruz now leads the major leagues in home runs (with 24) and RBI (64), on pace for 49 and 131, respectively. Even if he falls well short of those totals, he'll still blow his career highs (33 and 90) out of the water. He might as well go ahead and take the rest of the year off, because he's already earned his pay and then some. He's already been hailed as the best bargain of the offseason, and rightly so.

It's tempting to say Cruz can't and won't keep this up, that he'll cool off in the second half like so many sluggers with big first halves tend to do. But it's important to remember that he was hitting well last year before baseball suspended him for the rest of the season. Dating back to the start of last year, a span of 185 game for Cruz (essentially seven months of baseball), he's swatted 51 home runs, driven in 140 and slugged .541. That's a fairly large sample size, and Cruz was successful before that, too.

Could Cruz be juicing again? Given his history, it's not out of the question. It's rare to see players have career years at 33/34, but Cruz was a late-bloomer to begin with. He didn't play his first full season until he was 28, so experience-wise he's where most players are at in their late twenties. That, and the fact that he doesn't have nearly as much mileage as most outfielders in their mid-thirties, could explain why it's clicking for Cruz (and a few more fly balls flying over the fence never hurts, either).

Even if he does tail off in the second half, his pre-All-Star Break performance has been strong enough to merit a considerable pay raise when he becomes a free agent again this winter. He's a good bet to break 40 homers and 100 RBI for the first time, numbers that few in the game today are capable of reaching. That kind of big-time power deserves a big-time contract, and this time around I'm sure someone will give it to him.

Hardy Homers

Hardy hit his first home run of the year yesterday as Baltimore defeated New York

The Baltimore Orioles were already ahead 5-1 when J.J. Hardy dug in for his fourth and final plate appearance of yesterday's game at Yankee Stadium, Baltimore's 73rd of the season. Hardy had appeared in 65 of those, come to bat 263 times, and was still homerless. None of his 83 fly balls had left the park. His uncharacteristic power outage had long since passed the point of reaching epic proportions.

I say uncharacteristic because Hardy has always shown good power, particularly for a shortstop. With 158 home runs in his first nine seasons, he'd exceeded 20 in five of those years and hit as many as 30 in 2011. Going back to the start of the 2007 season, only Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki have more home runs among shortstops. After narrowing that window down to the past three years, Hardy's gone yard more often than any shortstop in baseball, the only person at the position to slug 20 homers or more in all three of those seasons.

Hardy had showed no signs of slipping last year, when he banged 25 homers and was an All-Star, Gold Glover and Silver Slugger recipient. 31 this year, he was too young to have his power disappear overnight like that. It's not normal for players to hit 25 homers one year and none the next year, especially when said player is healthy and still relatively young (which Hardy is) and when there's virtually no change in his batted ball data (Hardy's has remained the same, minus his HR/FB ratio, of course).

Even weirder than Hardy's sudden inability to leave the building was his good fortune on balls in play. Thanks to his .335 BABiP--nearly 60 points above his career average--he was hitting .300 as recently as two weeks ago and is on pace to not only post the highest batting average of his career, but the most doubles a well. With the batting average boost he's getting on base more frequently than at any point in the past three years, and his 92 OPS+ is not far off last year's mark of 100.

Still, Hardy had not been been hitting for power or driving in runs. With no speed to speak of and an aversion to drawing walks, he's been very limited offensively. Not bad, just less effective than in years past, when he could be counted on to put 25 or so balls into the seats.

This year, it took him nearly three months to belt his first. There was one out and nobody on base when he stepped in to face Jose Ramirez, a rookie reliever from the Dominican Republic who'd just whiffed Chris Davis. Hardy got himself into a hitter's count by taking the first two pitches for balls, then turned on a 95 mile per hour heater from Ramirez and launched it into the left field bleachers. The tater was Baltimore's fourth of the afternoon, as Adam Jones, Nelson Cruz and Steve Pearce had already gone deep, and gave them an insurance run over the Bombers. More importantly, the blast was Hardy's first since September 5th of last year, ending a span of 87 games and 360 plate appearances without a big fly.

With the weather warming and regression to the mean a near certainty, it won't take Hardy nearly as long to hit another.

Chris Carter AKA Carlos Pena

Carter hits bombs but doesn't do anything else (RantSports)

Remember the home run, whiffing, and walking machine known as Carlos Pena? The prized rookie traded off the Moneyball Oakland A's to supposedly make room for Scott Hatteberg? The same one who later emerged as an All-Star, Gold Glover, Silver Slugger, and home run champ with the Rays?

The 36 year-old free agent hasn't played since last year and is likely finished given his age and recent poor performance. But if you're a fan of Pena's and TTO players like him (Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds), fear not. One of his former teammates from Houston (what? he played for the Astros?) has taken up Pena's propensity for fanning, dingers, and low batting averages. Like Pena, he was shipped out of Oakland by Billy Beane early on in his career. Now he play's Pena's old position--first base--and wears Pena's old number--23.

His name is Chris Carter, and he is the righthanded version of Pena. Carter's numbers have been virtually identical to Pena's circa 2010-2012. In fact, Carter's 2013 is almost a dead-ringer for Pena's 2011, Pena's lone season with the beleaguered Chicago Cubs.

Pena 2011:   600 PA 497 AB 111 H 27 2B 3 3B 28 HR 80 RBI 2 SB .225/.357/.462 228 TB
Carter 2013: 585 PA 506 AB 113 H 24 2B 3 3B 29 HR 82 RBI 2 SB .223/.320/.451 228 TB

And since Opening Day 2011, their numbers are eerily similar as well:

Pena:   55 HR  166 RBI  435 K  .210/.339/.394 .733 OPS  103 OPS+  3.1 oWAR
Carter: 55 HR  148 RBI  382 K  .217/.315/.445 .761 OPS  109 OPS+  2.7 oWAR

Still toiling in mediocrity, Carter's on pace for similar numbers again this year, much like how Pena's 2011 was nearly a repeat of his 2010. Carter is what he is--a one-dimensional slugger--and has shown no willingness to cut down on his swing in hopes of sacrificing power for contact. He's currently batting below .200, but could very well wind up with 30 dingers. He's the top power source in Houston's lineup not named George Springer, and as long as he continues to bring the goods he'll remain their everyday DH.

But Pena showed how fast players of that ilk (see Jack Cust, Russell Branyan, Richie Sexson, Troy Glaus) can lose it. Once those fly balls stop leaving the yard, Carter won't have a shred of value and will be out of a job before long. Seeing as how he's in the heart of his prime at 27, that shouldn't happen for a few more years. When it does, it won't be pretty.

Until that day comes, let's appreciate Carter for what he is while we can. The rebuilding Astros might not have any better options at the moment, but it's only a matter of time before one comes along. And then Carter will be gone, long gone, like one of his many homers.

May Mashers

AL Player of the Month Edwin Encarnacion had a month for the ages 

May was a month of impressive home run performances throughout baseball. Whereas April was dominated by Jose Abreu's awesome debut, Albert Pujols' return to glory and Troy Tulowitzki's torrid start, May saw different players shine:

Edwin Encarnacion went berserk, smashing 16 home runs to tie Mickey Mantle's league record for the month (set in 1956) and fall one short of Barry Bonds' record, set during his suspicious 73-homer barrage in 2001. Encarnacion had five multi-home run games in one of the best May performances of all-time (more on that to come), helping Toronto go 21-9 during the month thanks to his 33 RBI, 26 runs scored and 1.132 OPS (fueled largely by his .763 slugging percentage). A dozen of those homers came during the two-week stretch from May 15th through the 29th, a 14-game span in which he knocked in 21 runs and Toronto lost only twice. Granted, he had a good deal of help from Jose Bautista (.324/.417/.532 with 22 RBI), but Encarnacion's elite power helped the Blue Jays surge to the top of a surprisingly winnable AL East.

Miguel Cabrera, the two-time defending AL MVP, was surprisingly mortal in April, hitting just two homers and batting .277/.320/.415, well below his established standards. He was back to his old self in May, clubbing 8 home runs, 11 doubles, and 41 hits as he batted a scintillating .380/.423/.704 for the month. All those base knocks led to lots of RBI for Cabrera, who recorded at least one ribbie in 19 of Detroit's 29 games and knocked in 34 runs overall, moving him to within three of Nelson Cruz's major league leading 52.

Speaking of Cruz, the formerly PED-tainted outfielder/DH had a fantastic month in his own right. Cruz continued to lay waste to major league pitching following his strong April, doing deep 13 times in May to give him 20 on the season, most in the bigs. He also plated 27 runs, scored 21, clubbed 8 doubles, and batted .339/.388/.748. The Orioles haven't been hitting this year, so it's a good thing they landed Cruz late in the offseason. Without him to carry their offense, they'd be dead last in the AL East.

May was George Springer's first full month in the major leagues, and the Astros rookie made quite an impression, hitting .294/.385/.647 with 10 bombs and 25 RBI. It took the slow-starting Springer 20 games and 87 plate appearances to launch his first major league home run, which happened on May 8th versus Detroit's Drew Smyly. That seemed to trigger a deluge, as he went yard nine more times--seven in a seven-game span from May 21st through the 29th. His middle of the order power in an otherwise weak lineup helped Houston post a winning record in May at 15-14.

Over in the National League, NL Player of the Month Yasiel Puig made lots of noise by batting .398 with an astronomical .492 OBP, both best in the Show. Puig piled up 43 hits, most in the league and setting a new Dodgers record for the month of May. He also topped the Circuit with 25 RBI, 19 extra base hits, 79 total bases, and his .731 slugging percentage. Puig reached base in all 28 games that month, getting at least one hit in 26 of them. His eight big flies tied Giancarlo Stanton for the league lead, and he added ten doubles as well. For now, Puig has surpassed the incomparable Mike Trout as the best player in baseball.

Victor Martinez was a beast in May, notching hits in 25 of 29 games last month, using 13 multi-hit efforts to pile up 42 base knocks. Of those 42 hits, 10 went for doubles and 9 cleared the fences, giving the Tigers DH an outstanding .699 slugging percentage. In addition to batting .372 and reaching base more than 43 percent of the time, he struck out only 10 times in 125 plate appearances. When V-Mart's locked in like that, he combines power with elite contact skills. At 35, the current AL batting leader is just as good as ever and forms a lethal tandem with Cabrera in the middle of Detroit's lineup.

Last but not least we have Brandon Moss, another fellow who drilled nine home runs in May. He also stroked eight doubles and two triples, which translates to a .684 slugging percentage. Moss also drove in 25 runs, 20 of which were accumulated in six games. Moss is quietly making a case for his first All-Star nod and is a big reason why Oakland has the best record in the American League.

Papi's Prodigious Power

Ortiz has outhomered all but two players in Red Sox history

After his recent home run barrage in Minnesota, David Ortiz has gone deep more times than anyone in the history of the Boston Red Sox, save Ted Williams and Carl Yastrzemski (who need no introduction). Ortiz already topped 23 taters in all 11 of his seasons with Boston prior to this one, averaging 34 per season, and with 11 already he's well on his way to doing it again in 2014.

Papi's power has been a mainstay in the heart of Boston's order for more than a decade. The Dominican DH has been soaring up the team's leaderboards since 2003, when he debuted with the Sox by slamming 31 home runs, posting a .961 OPS and finishing fifth in the MVP voting. It was the beginning of a remarkable run for Ortiz, who bashed 41 round-trippers the following year, 47 more the year after that and peaked at 54 in 2006--shattering Jimmie Foxx's single season franchise record of 50 which had stood since 1938. 

Even as Ortiz's home run production tailed off a bit after 2006 (he hasn't exceeded 35 since), Big Papi kept adding to his totals and climbed to fifth place midway through the 2010 season--his sixth with at least 30 dingers. He remained there until this year, when he leapfrogged Dwight Evans and Jim Rice in rapid succession. Ortiz needed much fewer at-bats than either of the long-time Sox sluggers; "Dewey" Evans came to the plate more than 10,000 times in his 19 seasons with the team, while Rice played his entire 16-year career in Boston and amassed over 9,000 plate appearances. Ortiz, now in his 12th season with the Sox, has yet to reach even 7,000 plate appearances. His 14.9 AB/HR ratio is fourth-best all-time among Sox sluggers, bested only by former teammate Manny Ramirez, Foxx, and Williams, and since the start of the 2003 season he has more long balls than everyone in baseball except for two: Albert Pujols and Adam Dunn.

After remaining in fifth place for nearly four years, the three-time World Series champion won't be escaping third place anytime soon. He still needs almost 70 bombs to reach Yastrzemski, who went yard 452 times in his 23 seasons. At 521, Williams is out of reach, unless by some miracle Ortiz remains a premier power hitter into his mid-forties. Assuming Papi finishes this season with around 400 dingers (perhaps a bit conservative seeing as how he's on pace to club 42 this year), he'd still need two more very good seasons to catch Yaz. Considering his age--38 and a half--that seems like a tall task, but Ortiz has showed no signs of slowing down and just might be able to pull it off. He's under contract for next year, and the Red Sox will surely bring him back as long as he continues to hit. 

So until an injury pops up or Ortiz starts to decline, it remains a very real possibility that the nine-time All-Star will finish his Red Sox career with more circuit drives than anyone besides Teddy Ballgame. And, if Papi eclipses Yaz or falls just short, he'll reach the 500 home run plateau and seriously bolster his Hall of Fame chances (more on that to come). Regardless of where he ends up, he'll go down as one of the best sluggers the Sox have ever had.

So even if he never hits another home run, his place in Red Sox history, as well as the organization's Hall of Fame, is secure.