Ellsbury's Slam Saves Yanks

Ellsbury's 100th career homer was also his first grand slam (New York Daily News)

In the seventh inning of Friday night's wild slugfest at Yankee Stadium, which New York won 14-11 in 10 innings despite trailing 9-1 in the sixth and 11-4 in the seventh (way to go, Orioles bullpen), Yankee center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury did something he'd never done before in a Major League game.

New York trailed by seven runs when Ellsbury stepped to the plate with the sacks full and one out in the bottom of the seventh. The Yankees were threatening, but they desperately needed a hit from their cleanup man, who was 0-for-3 to that point (why's he hitting fourth in the first place?!). Their chances of winning were three percent, and it was starting to get late real early in the Bronx.

Hoping to keep the rally going, Ellsbury got himself into a 2-1 count against lefty Vidal Nuno, who was looking shaky after allowing Chase Headley to double and walking Matt Holliday to load the bases. Now Nuno needed to throw a strike, and everyone in the park knew it.

But as he lifted his right leg and aimed a 92 mile-per-hour fastball towards home plate, the possibility of a grand slam seemed remote. For starters, Ellsbury has never been much of a power hitter, reaching double digit homers only twice in 11 seasons. When he does go yard, it tends to be against right-handers and in the second half. The platoon split has become even more pronounced recently, as he managed just one homer in 196 plate appearances against lefties last year.

Career vs. RHP: 1 homer per 39 at-bats
Career vs. LHP: 1 homer per 75 at-bats

Career before July 1st: 1 homer per 71 at-bats
Career after July 1st: 1 homer per 34 at-bats

He also homers less frequently from the seventh inning on (about once every 54 at-bats), but the gap there is less substantial.

There was also the fact that Ellsbury had as many career grand slams as the nearly 37,000 non-Major Leaguers in attendance that night. He had hit 99 home runs, but none with ducks on the pond. He'd plated 73 runs in 106 bases-loaded plate appearances and amassed 478 career RBIs, but never four at once.

So, to recap: Ellsbury hitting a home run at all -- unlikely. Ellsbury hitting a home run off a lefty in April -- even more unlikely. Ellsbury knocking a grand slam out of the park -- unprecedented. The only thing working in Ellsbury's favor was Nuno's propensity for serving up long balls (career 1.5 HR/9 rate), but even that doesn't mean much when you consider that he's only thrown 340 innings in his career.

But that's the beauty of baseball. There are so many games and pitches and at-bats that crazy things happen all the time. Just this weekend, Anthony Rendon went 6-for-6 with three homers and 10 RBIs, the Dodgers drilled three straight homers before walking off in the bottom of the ninth, and Jacoby Ellsbury finally hits a grand slam.

How could he not? That pitch from Nuno was a meatball, straight as an arrow and right down Broadway. A batting practice fastball just begging to be crushed.

And Ellsbury crushed it alright, launching it 417 feet into the right-center bleachers -- his longest homer of the season by 35 feet. The scoreboard read 11-8, the Stadium was rocking, and New York's chances of victory had soared from three percent all the way to...10 percent. The psychological shift, though, was much greater. Teams almost never come back from seven-run deficits, particularly in the late innings. There's just not enough time, and bullpens are too deep nowadays. But get a few men on in an inning, and a three-run lead can disappear with one swing.

Sure enough, Ellsbury's blast proved to be a turning point in the game. The Orioles were so demoralized that after piling up 11 runs in the previous five innings, they managed only one baserunner over the next three frames. The rejuvenated Yankees, meanwhile, rallied to tie the game with three runs in the ninth before completing their epic comeback with three more in the tenth.

It took more than 5,000 plate appearances over 11 years for Jacoby Ellsbury to hit his first grand slam. At that rate, it might also be his last. But if it is, at least he made it count.

Orioles Get Good Deal on Gallardo

Gallardo gives the Orioles a frontline starter (MLB.com)

Just when you thought the offseason was winding down and rosters were pretty much set, the Baltimore Orioles made a last-minute splash by inking Yovani Gallardo to a two-year, $22 million deal with a $13 million option and coming oh-so-close to signing Dexter Fowler (more on that to come).

It seemed like the Orioles were content to roll out last year's team minus Wei-Yin Chen, which didn't look promising given that a) Chen was their best pitcher and b) they finished .500. But after shelling out $161 million to keep Chris Davis--more money than they'd ever paid anybody before--there wasn't much wiggle room left in their budget to upgrade elsewhere or re-sign Chen, who landed a five-year, $80 million payday from the Marlins.

In Gallardo, however, they essentially replaced Chen at a fraction of the cost. Both are 30 and have produced almost identical results since Chen made his major league debut in 2012:

Chen 2012-15: 706.2 IP 3.72 ERA 110 ERA+ 4.14 FIP 1.25 WHIP 7.0 K/9

Gall. 2012-15: 761.1 IP 3.69 ERA 108 ERA+ 3.94 FIP 1.34 WHIP 7.3 K/9

Chen's the better option because he has more strikeouts, fewer walks, and pitches from the left side, but not so much better that he deserves a substantially better contract. The Orioles shouldn't feel bad about letting him walk, as they got a great consolation prize in Gallardo.

They also have to be encouraged that Gallardo made a smooth transition to the American League last year, compiling the best raw and adjusted ERA of his career despite making half his starts in the brutal Texas heat. Camden Yards is also tough on pitchers, but that shouldn't be a problem now that Gallardo's thrived in two difficult parks to pitch in (the other being Milwaukee).

What the Orioles should be worried about, however, are Gallardo's poor peripherals. He had the worst WHIP of his career in 2015 and his xFIP was 4.31, nearly a full run higher than his ERA and also a career-worst. In addition to getting lucky on his strand and home run rates, he posted a career-low 5.9 K/9 rate--the third straight year in which his strikeout rate declined. That, combined with his pedestrian walk rate, resulted in a career-low 1.78 K/ BB ratio. Those are the numbers of a bad pitcher, not a good one earning eight figures a year.

That said, Gallardo's track record suggests he'll be a good bargain for the O's as long as he stays healthy, which has never been a problem for him in the past (he's started at least 30 games in each of the past seven years). His durability and consistently above average results (only once has he had a below-average league and park-adjusted ERA) have helped him exceed two fWAR every year dating back to 2009. That may not seem very impressive, but dollars-wise it's worth a lot. Gallardo has provided well over $11 million (his current salary) of value every year of his career but one; 2008, when he made just four starts. As long as he keeps converting half of balls put in play against him on the ground, he'll be fine (Baseball-Reference has him pegged for a 3.68 ERA in 171 innings next year).

Gallardo doesn't have the ceiling of a David Price or even a Chen, but he does have a very high floor, and that's what the Orioles are paying him for.

Boston Blows Middle Game to Toronto

The Red Sox fell flat on their face in a nightmare 10th inning (Boston Globe)

The Red Sox played phenomenal baseball for nine innings Tuesday night, battling the Blue Jays to a 1-1 draw through the end of regulation. In the tenth inning, however, Boston showed why its in last place with one of the uglier innings I've seen this season, which is saying something considering how many unsightly moments there've been this year.

As the game drew on, it was only a matter of time before Boston blew up. Leave a last place team on the field long enough, and sooner or later they're going to screw up. Face Toronto's fearsome lineup, which includes three 30-homer hitters and leads all of baseball in runs scored, too many times, and eventually you pay the price.

Basically, the Red Sox lost because they went through the Blue Jays lineup one too many times last night.

Which is too bad, because Boston pitching dominated Toronto its first four trips through the order, allowing just one run on three hits. Unfortunately the Red Sox were equally quiet, managing only one run themselves and a mere four hits.

Boston's best chance to win came in the bottom of the ninth. Robbie Ross Jr. had just retired the side in the top half, setting the Sox up to walk-off with the heart of their order due up. Aaron Sanchez kept Boston at bay, working around a walk to David Ortiz (immediately erased when his pinch-runner, Rusney Castillo, was thrown out trying to steal second) to send the game into extras.

Castillo's mistake proved costly, as he may have ran the Red Sox out of a rally. Instead of a man on first with one out (Boston's win probability at that point: 64 percent), there were two outs and nobody on for Travis Shaw (win probability:54 percent). Shaw, who'd tied the game with a solo shot in the second, was unable to muster his second long ball of the evening and grounded out to end the frame.

With the middle of Toronto's order coming up and Boston's bullpen thinning out, the Blue Jays were poised to broke through. The Red Sox had blown their best chance walk away with a win, and thus avoid facing the terrifying trio of Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion for a fifth time. Interim manager Torey Lovullo sent out Alexi Ogando, his sixth reliever of the evening, to deal with the aforementioned sluggers.

Ogando got into trouble immediately, as Donaldson socked his second pitch off the top of the Monster for a leadoff triple. Following a fly ball to Bautista, Ogando intentionally walked Encarnacion to set up an inning-ending double play.

To his credit, Ogando got the next two batters--Troy Tulowitzki and Chris Colabello, to hit the ball on the ground, but neither found a Boston glove. Both squirted into the outfield for run-scoring singles, giving Toronto a 3-1 edge.

That's when things turned ugly for Boston. With light-hitting Kevin Pillar at the plate, Ogando balked in a run, then uncorked a wild pitch. Pillar lifted a fly ball to Brock Holt in left, which Holt delivered to the plate ahead of a tagging Colabello. The throw was a bit up the line, however, and actually conked Colabello on the helmet as he slide into home. Had his dome not got in the way, he probably would have been called out.

As it were, the Blue Jays built a four-run lead in the blink of an eye--plenty of insurance. The Red Sox went down 1-2-3 in their half of the tenth, and that was that. They'd played nine great innings but had nothing to show for it, getting saddled with a tough-luck loss.

I suppose it's been that kind of season for the Red Sox. Even when they play well, they lose.

Blue Jays Big Winners at Trade Deadline

The Blue Jays hope Price can pitch them into the postseason (NY Daily News)

When you trade for the best shortstop in baseball and one of your league's best pitchers in the span of 48 hours, you're having a pretty good week.

Unlike the Royals, with whom Toronto has shared the spotlight this week, the Blue Jays have made their share of headlines over the past few years. They traded for the first edition of the Miami Marlins (Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle), a reigning Cy Young winner (R.A. Dickey), and a legit MVP candidate (Josh Donaldson). They haven't been shy on the free agent market either, bringing on post-PED suspension Melky Cabrera and Russell Martin--one of the best catchers in baseball.

And yet for all their activity, the Blue Jays have nothing to show for it. Every year, it seems, Toronto is the dark-horse candidate to win the AL East, and every year they flop--usually because they don't have enough starting pitching. It's hard to believe that team, with all its talent, has lost more games than they've won over the past two and a half seasons, especially given the lackluster quality of their division these days. The AL East has been wide open the past couple of years but it's been the Orioles, not the Jays, who've taken advantage. Toronto's merely toiled in mediocrity, watching its playoff drought--the longest in American professional sports--grow longer by the day.

This year, with the Blue Jays again hovering around .500, GM Alex Anthopoulos pushed all his chips into the pile. He had already committed to going for it this year when he traded for Donaldson and gave $82 million to Martin last winter. Now, with his team in the hunt for the second wild card and still within striking distance of the Yankees, Anthopoulos made his move. First he went out and got Troy Tulowitzki, which seemed a bit puzzling given that he already had a really good, albeit injury-prone, shortstop in Jose Reyes, who went to Colorado along with two minor leaguers and Miguel Castro.

But Anthopoulos wasn't done. Yesterday, just two days after acquiring Tulo, he sent three players, including his organization's most promising young starter (Daniel Norris), to Detroit for David Price.

No disrespect to Tulo, but Price is the bigger get here. Toronto hasn't had a pitcher of his caliber since Roy Halladay, and Halladay hasn't thrown a pitch for the Jays since 2009. Like the Royals, they were a team in desperate need of an ace, and now they have one.

Price, who was dealt on deadline day last year, fits the bill. Dominant as ever, his stats this year are right in line with those from his Cy Young season of 2012. Furthermore, the one-time Tampa Bay Ray is not only comfortable pitching in the AL East, but also has postseason experience. The big lefty is exactly the kind of guy you want at the front of your rotation, even if it's only for a few months (Price will be a free agent this winter).

As for Tulowitzki, there's no doubt he's one of the best players in baseball whenever he takes the field. Taking the field isn't something he does all that often, but he's been healthy this year and makes the best lineup in baseball even better (but also impossibly right-handed). He's also under contract for five years beyond this one, which means Toronto's set at shortstop for a while.

Just two games out of the second wild card and with Price and Tulowitzki now on board, the Blue Jays are poised for a run that could result in their first postseason berth since 1993. Given all they've invested in this year's team and all the talent they just surrendered, however, anything less would be a colossal failure.

The Rays' Resilience

Archer and co. have pitched the Rays into contention (ISportsWeb)

Before Opening Day, the Red Sox and Blue Jays were the two teams most favored to win the AL East. Nobody gave the Rays, who finished 2014 with a losing record and recently lost Ben Zobrist, David Price, and the best manager in baseball (Joe Maddon) much of a chance. While their pitching looked great, their offense, or severe lack thereof, appeared to be a fatal shortcoming, and nobody knew what to expect from rookie skipper Kevin Cash. For the first time since becoming a powerhouse in 2008, people were picking them to finish last in their division.

Now, nearly halfway through the season, they are tops in the AL East. This isn't merely a recent development, as they've been in first or second place every day since April 24th. Until this week they were red-hot, too, having completed a torrid three-week stretch in which they went 15-5.

With each win and every day atop the standings, Tampa Bay continues to defy the pundits who forecast mediocrity for them in 2015. They've fashioned the third-best record (42-34) in the American League despite scoring just 18 more runs than they've allowed, a run differential that suggests their talent is closer to that of a .500 team than a division leader. Their record also equals that of the Los Angeles Dodgers, the team with the highest payroll in baseball at approximately $275 million--or $200 million more than the 28th-ranked Rays are spending this season.

This is nothing new, as Tampa Bay has been assembling terrific teams without much cash or offensive firepower for years now. Their budgetary constraints and pitching-friendly ballpark have prevented them from building the type of potent, star-studded lineups found elsewhere in their division, and this year is no different in that regard. The Rays rank third-to-last in the American League in runs scored, which corresponds to their bottom-five rank in doubles, average, slugging, and OPS.

Their best hitter and franchise cornerstone, Evan Longoria, is mired in another disappointing season, and because of injuries to James Loney and Desmond Jennings he's not had much help. Were it not for the unexpected production of Steve Souza (a team-high 14 home runs), Logan Forsythe (.835 OPS) and Joey Butler (.845 OPS), the Rays would undoubtedly rank last in scoring. Tampa Bay has compensated for its deficiencies at the dish with aggressive baserunning and sound defense, as the Rays rank second among AL teams in stolen bases and fielding percentage.

Tampa Bay's real strength, as expected, has been their pitching, which boasts the lowest ERA in the Junior Circuit. This comes as something of a surprise given that two of their best starters, Matt Moore and Alex Cobb, haven't thrown a pitch for them in 2015. Cobb, who underwent Tommy John surgery in May, won't be coming back (neither will Drew Smyly, who managed just three starts before needing shoulder surgery). but Moore, who had the same procedure last year, is due back this week. An All-Star and Cy Young candidate the last time he was fully healthy, Moore figures to bolster what has been the second-stingiest rotation to date.

In their absence, Chris Archer has emerged a legitimate Cy Young candidate. He currently leads the American League in ERA (2.01), WHIP (0.95), and ERA+ (194). The 26 year-old has taken the leap after a pair of good but hardly-great seasons, displaying improved command (trimming a full batter off his career walk rate) and harnessing his elite strikeout potential (10.7 K/9) in his third full season. Jake Odorizzi was also in the midst of a breakout season (2.47 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) before landing on the disabled list with a strained oblique. The Rays are eagerly awaiting his return, which should be soon.

The rotation's true X factor has been Nate Karns, who had all of five big league starts under his belt prior to this season. Thrust into the rotation because of injuries, he's already tripled that number this year. More important than the quantity of his innings has been the quality, which has been better than anyone could have expected: his 3.28 ERA is nearly half of what his career mark was coming into the season.

Tampa's shutdown bullpen has been every bit as impressive, with its top five relievers in terms of appearances all flashing sub-three ERAs. A sixth, Jake McGee, has been stellar since making his way back from offseason elbow surgery, re-asserting himself as the team's top fireman with a 1.69 ERA and absurd 24/1 K/BB ratio. The former closer has been invaluable as the setup man for Brad Boxberger, who had just three saves to his name coming into the year but has already racked up 20. Thus, on the rare occasions when Rays starters struggle, their formidable bullpen is capable of stopping the bleeding and giving Tampa's offense a chance to climb back into the game.

So with Loney, Moore, Odorizzi, and John Jaso due back in the coming weeks, the Rays should enjoy a considerable boost from their midseason reinforcements. Odorizzi and Moore will make a great rotation even better, while Jaso and Loney should provide offensive upgrades over their placeholders (Rene Rivera, Jake Elmore) behind the plate and at first base. So although there are three teams within two games of Tampa Bay, it's possible the Rays won't need to add much at the trade deadline.

It's also possible that, as well as the Rays have played thus far, their best is yet to come.

Toronto's Torrid Hitting Fuels Streak

Pricey free agent addition Russell Martin has been a huge success (US News)

Things were looking pretty bleak for the Toronto Blue Jays on the afternoon of June 2nd. The Jays had just been shut out for the first time this year, dropping Game 1 of a doubleheader to the Washington Nationals 2-0. The team who many thought would win the AL East this year had fallen a season-low seven games below .500, much closer to last place than first place.

Then the Blue Jays started winning, and they haven't lost since. They took the nightcap 7-3, then routed the Nats 8-0 the following day to take the series finale and the series. At the end of a week-long road trip, Toronto was just getting started.

The Blue Jays returned home from our nation's capitol and swept the red-hot Astros, winning the first two games handily before punctuating their second sweep of the year with a come-from-behind, walkoff victory. They followed that sweep with another of the Miami Marlins, which featured another thrilling comeback-walkoff.

Having climbed above .500 for the first time in a month, Toronto traveled to Boston for a three-game set at Fenway. The Jays broke out their bats, scoring 13 runs in the opener and finale--31 in all. In between Toronto ran its win-streak to double digits with a 5-4 victory in 11 innings--the team's second extra inning win of the year and first since April 18th. All three wins were exceptional, with the visitors overcoming a seven-run deficit in the opener, winning the middle game in extras, and pounding the Bosox 13-5 in the finale.

With yesterday's rout, the Blue Jays completed their third consecutive sweep, tying a franchise record with their eleventh straight victory. They've averaged an incredible eight runs per game over the course of their streak, bludgeoning opponents with the best offense in the game. Their pitching has been better as well, allowing three runs or less in seven of the eight games before falling victim to Fenway's friendly confines.

It took them two months, but the Jays have finally bloomed into a team worthy of the preseason hype. They have the majors' best run-differential and have murdered lefties like few others in the Wild Card era.

Not coincidentally, Toronto's win streak has paralleled the re-emergence of All-Star shortstop Jose Reyes, who has hit safely in all 11 of their victories. Reyes, who returned from a four-week absence on Memorial Day, has notched at least one hit in 17 of 18 games since coming off the disabled list, raising his OPS 170 points during that time. He's played a huge role in Toront's win streak, driving in 11 runs out of the leadoff spot and scoring in eight straight games.

Toronto's lineup has also benefited from the resurgence of Russell Martin, who went a month between home runs before jacking three last week, including the game-winning blast in Saturday's extra inning affair. Martin's also currently riding a six-game hit streak, while teammate Edwin Encarnacion has hit safely in seven straight. Jose Bautista, who cranked four home runs in a four-game span after managing just seven through his first 47, also appears to be finding his form after a slow start. If they hit like they have in the past, Josh Donaldson keeps hitting as he has, and Devon Travis comes back strong, Toronto's going to light up scoreboards all summer long.

It's funny that the Blue Jays are essentially the team everyone expected their rival Red Sox to be, leading the majors in runs scored (by a lot, as well as doubles, slugging, OPS, and total bases) but ranking near the bottom (third-to-last) in ERA (and home runs allowed). Toronto's won by outslugging its competition thus far, but for that to continue its position players must stay healthy and productive. That won't be easy given that Martin, Bautista, Encarnacion, Reyes, and Chris Colabello--over half the starting lineup--are all on the wrong side of 30. The pitching will have to improve eventually, because the lineup can only cover their mistakes for so long. Look for Alex Anthopoulos to seek out starting pitching help at the trade deadline--Cole Hamels would be a huge get.

In the meantime, Toronto will shoot for a franchise-record 12th straight victory tonight in Flushing behind Mark Buehrle, who's delivered a pair of strong starts during the run including his first shutout in almost two years. The Mets, who have the same record as the Jays (34-30) and currently sit atop the NL East, will counter with Noah Syndergaard, the rookie phenom who was still in diapers the last time Toronto reached the postseason. Mets fans hope Syndergaard (2.96 FIP) and Citi Field's carvernous dimensions can combine to stifle Toronto's torrid offense, but after seeing the Jays turn Fenway Park into a pinball machine I certainly wouldn't bet on it.

The Longest Game

Ortiz watches his go-ahead home run leave the yard (Yahoo)

By late afternoon/early evening on the east coast, assuming they don't play another extraordinarily long game, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees will have played the equivalent of three baseball games in under 24 hours. As someone who's done so--albeit with seven inning games--in college, I can tell you it's not fun. Baseball may not be the most physically punishing sport, but it still gives your body a beating.

Alas, that's what happens when you decide to play an impromptu doubleheader the night before an afternoon game. The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees met for the first time of the season yesterday at Yankee Stadium, and for roughly seven hours they were about as evenly matched as two teams can be. The Red Sox ultimately outlasted their rivals, prevailing 6-5 thanks to a timely sacrifice fly by Mookie Betts in the top of the 19th.

While this  rivalry is known for its marathon games, last night's 19-inning affair took the cake. Including a 16 minute delay cause by a power outage, it took seven hours and five minutes to complete. It was the longest game time-wise in Red Sox history. It was the longest game time-wise in Yankees history.

John Farrell and Joe Girardi were constantly re-arranging their lineup cards as they emptied their bullpens and benches, deploying 17 pitchers and 25 position players between them. Pinch hitters and runners came and went. A brigade of relievers contributed innings before Boston settled on Steven Wright and New York leaned on Esmil Rogers to see them through. The two sides combined for 32 hits, 14 walks, and 28 strikeouts.

While the game was insufferably long, it was anything but boring. It had a game-saving home run with two outs in the bottom of the ninth by Chase Headley to send the game into extras. It had another game-tying blast in the bottom of the 16th by Mark Teixeira, after David Ortiz put Boston ahead in the top of the frame with a moon shot of his own. It had baserunning blunders, perfect throws, floating knuckleballs, timely hits, and too many missed opportunities to count. And it ended on a beautifully turned double play by Xander Bogaerts (who gloved a hard shot up the middle by Garrett Jones that would have gone through had Bogaerts not shifted), Dustin Pedroia (who threw across his body, leaping to avoid the slide of former teammate Jacoby Ellsbury), and Mike Napoli (nice catch)--the only one Boston turned all night.

Last night's game was an instant classic, the kind these two teams tend to produce so frequently. Though I found myself wishing for the game to end several times (a man's gotta sleep), and grew increasingly frustrated as the Red Sox blew lead after lead, I'm glad I stayed up for it. Those are the kinds of games you don't forget. I still remember staying up for a 16-inning Sox-Rays duel during the 2011 season (Boston won that battle, but lost the war). Baseball fans watch so many games every year that they inevitably blur together, but I'm damn sure I won't forget this one.

Ben Zobrist: Baseball's Most Underrated Player

Cabrera, Verlander, Zobrist? (Chat Sports)

Since the start of the 2009 season, Miguel Cabrera has been the most valuable player in baseball. No surprise there, seeing as how he's hit .331/.411/.585 (166 wRC+) during that span while averaging 36 home runs, 120 RBI, and 156 games played per year. His yearly dominance is reflected in his strong MVP showings, including two first-place finishes (neither of which were deserved due to Mike Trout's excellence), one year as runner-up, two other top-five finishes, and most recently a top-10 finish.

During that time, Justin Verlander has been the second most valuable player in baseball. Again, that makes sense, even in light of his recent demise. He was the sport's clear-cut best pitcher for a couple years, winning a Cy Young (deserving another) and an MVP as well as making five All-Star teams. They're both proven studs with huge contracts and, oh yeah, they also happen to be teammates. Cabrera is a surefire Hall of Famer at this point, and Verlander will be too if he can just play out his contract Barry Zito-style without bursting into flame. (Remind me again how Detroit hasn't won a World Series since 1984?)

Here's something I just can't wrap my head around. Baseball's third most valuable player--second most valuable position player--has been, get ready...Ben Zobrist.

Huh?

How is that possible? The lifelong Tampa Bay Ray and subject of recent trade rumors has never batted .300, tallied 170 hits, or swatted 30 home runs. He has neither scored nor knocked in 100 runs in a season. He's never stolen 25 bases. Zobrist is durable, plays good defense, and is a comfortably above average hitter (118 career wRC+), but I'm having a hard time believing he's been the best position player this side of Miguel Cabrera for the past six years.

So where is Zobrist's value coming from? Has he really been more valuable than big name stars like Robinson Cano, Adrian Beltre, and Andrew McCutchen? Those guys are MVPs. All-Stars. Gold Glove winners. Zobrist is a good player; I think we can all agree on that (he's made two All-Star teams and earned MVP votes three times). But an elite, game-changing talent? I don't think so. His most similar batter is Aaron Boone, for crying out loud (two Hall of Fame votes notwithstanding).

But while Zobrist might not be great at anything, he's good at just about everything, especially skills that tend to be undervalued. He's a deceptively good (switch-) hitter, for his numbers--while they don't jump off the page--are nevertheless impressive relative to his home ballpark. He hits for good-not-great averages (usually in the .270 range), walks a lot, and offers solid power via doubles and double-digit home run totals. His .801 OPS from 2009-2014 is really good, especially considering he plays half his games in the hitter's coffin that is Tropicana Field (unsurprisingly, his road OPS exceeds his home OPS by 32 points). He doesn't strike out a ton, either, only once exceeding 110 strikeouts for his career (Derek Jeter, by comparison, did so five times).

Zobrist isn't particularly fast but runs the bases well, and has stolen 102 bases in 137 attempts (74.4 percent success rate). He's notched double-digit steals in each of the past six seasons, nabbing as many as 24 in 2010. Zobrist has been a net positive on the bases, on par with McCutchen in terms of baserunning value, though probably not for much longer as he enters his age 34 season.

Another underrated skill of his is durability. In addition to averaging 153 games per season over the past six, Zobrist also plays a host of different positions, primarily second base. More importantly, he plays them well, albeit without the flair or regularity needed for a Gold Glove. He's a jack of all trades who can hit, field, run, and almost never takes a day off. That's pretty valuable.

So while I may not see Zobrist as one of the three (or even 10) best players in baseball, I have to acknowledge that he's a fine ballplayer in pretty much every regard, not to mention steady as they come.

Toronto Misses Mark on Martin

Martin's a fantastic catcher, but Toronto needs help elsewhere (CBSSports)

It's been awhile since the Toronto Blue Jays had a credible catcher. Sandwiched around John Buck's fluky All-Star year in 2010, they've endured terrible seasons from Rod Barajas before and J.P. Arencibia since. Last year they had Dioneer Navarro, a decent bat coupled with poor defense at the most important position on the diamond. It was clear the Jays could do better behind the plate, where they managed a meager .659 OPS last year, but I'm not sure Russell Martin is enough of an upgrade to justify his hefty price tag.

To his credit, Martin was phenomenal last year, worth 5.5 bWAR despite playing in only 111 games. In addition to being one of the best defensive backstops in the game, he also hit for some power, batted .290, and got on base more than 40 percent of the time. That's a great, valuable player who helped lead the Pittsburgh Pirates back to the postseason for the second year in a row.

Furthermore, Martin has a distinguished track record of success. The three-time All-Star and former Gold Glove winner has been the third-best catcher in baseball since his debut in 2006, behind only Joe Mauer and Brian McCann. While he's had his ups and downs as a player, he's always been a productive player because of his sterling defense at a premium position, solid bat, good health (he's averaged 129 games per season), and decent speed.

So why do I despise Martin's deal (five years, $82 million)? Well for one, Martin's going to be 32 at the start of next season, which is old for any player but especially a catcher who's already logged nearly 10,000 career innings behind the dish. Martin's been an everyday catcher for nearly a decade, and that's probably going to start "catching" up to him (pun intended) sooner or later.

Additionally, it appears Toronto overpaid Martin based on his tremendous 2014 production just as Detroit overpaid for Victor Martinez's 2014, clear outliers in both cases. Look at the five seasons before last, when Martin batted .234/.332/.370 while averaging 13 home runs and 50 RBI per year. That's the kind of hitter Martin is going to be, not the guy who put up the best OBP and adjusted OPS+ of his career at age 31. Don't be surprised when he regresses to a .700 OPS or worse next year.

I also don't see how the Blue Jays are rationalizing this move to themselves when they already had Navarro, one year Martin's junior, under contract for next year at the bargain bin price of $5 million. Martin's a better player and certainly better catcher than Navarro, but at that price Navarro is an absolute steal. Furthermore, the difference between Martin and Navarro just isn't wide enough to justify paying Martin three times as much money for 2015.

Look, last year Navarro was worth 2.3 bWAR, same as the year before. From 2009 through 2013, Martin's average season yielded 2.6 bWAR. Steamer says Martin projects to be worth two more wins that Navarro will next year, but based on their track records I don't see it. Take into account that Martin's one year older, and they would have been virtually a wash in terms of projected value for next year.

Now Navarro, a .294/.331/.429 hitter over the last three years, is either relegated to backup duties or must be traded. As for Martin, I expect he'll have a season similar to the one McCann just had, minus some power but with better on-base numbers. Probably looking at a three win guy there, four if Toronto's lucky.

I get that the Blue Jays are in win-now mode, and that after winning 83 games last year they believe a playoff berth is within reach. They haven't made the postseason during the wild card era, and the AL East is once again up for grabs. They're at a point on the win curve where just one more win a month probably gets them over the hump, but Martin alone isn't going to do it. Toronto desperately needs a second baseman and could really use another frontline starter (that rotation is just begging for an ace) as well as a couple bullpen arms. I would have addressed those issues first rather than catcher, where they were already okay.

Instead, now they're stuck with Martin, whose best days are almost definitely behind him. I don't see him contribute enough on the front end of the deal to justify for just how bad he's going to be at the back end. If I'm Toronto, I save that money and spend it elsewhere, probably on an ace like James Shields, Max Scherzer, or Jon Lester. That's what they really need to make the playoffs, not a slightly better catcher.

Birds, Nats Clinch

Washington won its second division title in three years (Vavel)

Last night was a great night to be a baseball fan from the D.C. metro area. In Atlanta the Nationals blanked the Braves 3-0 to clinch the NL East for the second time in three years. In Baltimore the Orioles won their first division title since 1997, bludgeoning the Blue Jays 8-2 in front of a celebratory home crowd of 35,000-plus.

But while both of the nation's capital's baseball teams ended up in the same place--at the top of their division and postseason-bound--how they got there turns out to be two very different yet similar stories

It's impossible to talk about this season without first mentioning 2012, when both teams shed their also-ran status by making the playoffs. Washington was the best team in baseball that year, winners of 98 games and clear favorites to win the National League. The former Montreal Expos had been more or less irrelevant since moving to Washington after the 2004 season, never winning more than 81 games and finishing last in their division five times, but thanks to an influx of young talent and a killer pitching staff that had changed practically overnight. For the first time since 1933, there was playoff baseball in our nation's capitol.

That same year, the Baltimore Orioles also came out of nowhere to make the playoffs, winning 93 games and the AL Wild Card. The once-proud franchise had endured 15 straight losing seasons prior to its magical turnaround, going from a 69-93 last-place finish in 2011 to two games out of first the following year.

The Nationals were a veritable juggernaut. The Orioles were a Cinderella story, a good team that overachieved due to extraordinary luck in one-run games. And yet they both met the same fate: eliminated from the Division Series in five games, with Baltimore falling to their mighty division rivals from New York and Washington losing to the defending World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals.

Still, 2012 was a banner year for the Nats, who were poised to be the crown jewel of the Senior Circuit for the foreseeable future. That season marked not just the beginning of a new era in Washington baseball, but also appeared to signal a changing of the guard in the NL East, a transition away from the Braves dynasty and Phillies mini-dynasty. With their tantalizing core of young position players (Bryce Harper, Ian Desmond, Wilson Ramos) and plentiful pitching (Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez), Washington was armed and ready be kings of NL East for years to come.

For the first time since Clinton's presidency, the O's are AL East champs (Baltimore Sun)

The Orioles, on the other hand, were treated as a fluke. There was no such talk of a repeat performance in 2013, much less the next Orioles dynasty. They had an outstanding core of in-their-prime position players (Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Nick Markakis, J.J. Hardy), but not nearly enough arms to match their competitors in the AL East. Everyone knew that with natural regression they'd likely be a .500-ish team in 2013, and that's basically what happened. They won 85 games and fell back to the pack, finishing tied-for-third with the Yankees behind pitching-rich Boston and Tampa Bay. Nobody saw Baltimore as underachievers that year, but rather a club that played to its true talent level.

Not so with the Nationals, the preseason favorites to win the World Series. Washington was shockingly irrelevant last summer, 16 games out of first and four below .500 on the morning of August 20th. A late surge pushed them 10 games over .500 but still left them 10 back of the Braves and out of the playoffs. Almost the exact same results as the Orioles, one might notice, but drastically different expectations led to the Nationals' season being viewed as a massive disappointment, if not an outright failure.

Both responded with significant roster upgrades over the winter--Baltimore inked Nelson Cruz and Ubaldo Jimenez while Washington stole Doug Fister from Detroit--and have come back strong. The Nationals reclaimed their status as the top dog in their division and, as of this writing, the National League. Not that they had much competition--Atlanta was the only other rival with legitimate postseason hopes and now sits below .500--but first place wasn't guaranteed until mid-August, when Washington won 10 in a row and 12 out of 13 to wrap up the division. They've continued to roll since, breaking away from the pack and building their lead up to its high-water mark of 12.5 games.

Baltimore, on the other hand, wasn't given a snowball's chance in hell to win the AL East before the season began. The Orioles were widely viewed as one of the two weakest teams in the division, with the other being the Blue Jays. Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay were expected to duke it out for the top spot. Nobody gave Baltimore a second thought.

So when the Orioles were in first place for a good while in May, nobody thought it would last. And while they were only a few games over .500 for most of June, that was enough to stay near the top of the division. In early July they made their move, winning 10 of 13 leading up to the All-Star break to finish the first half 10 games above .500 and with a four game lead in the AL East. They've been in first place every day since, putting away the division with a torrid second half. Since the last day of June they've gone 49-21. That's a .700 winning percentage, folks, spanning almost half a season.

It's fitting that both teams ran away with their divisions around the same time, and that they'll likely finish the season with similar records. Because for the second time in three years, both teams will be playing in October, vying for the chance to compete in the first-ever all-DC area Fall Classic (a Beltway Series, I guess?). While I'd rather see a Freeway Series between the more exciting Dodgers and Angels (Yasiel Puig, Clayton Kershaw, and Mike Trout on the game's grandest stage? Yes please), that would be a pretty good series in its own right.

Ranaudo Rises to Occasion

Ranaudo shined in his major league debut last night (NESN.com)

The new-look Boston Red Sox won their first game following Thursday's fire sale that sent Jon Lester, Jonny Gomes, John Lackey, Stephen Drew, and Andrew Miller packing, beating the New York Yankees 4-3 at Fenway Park last night. Allen Craig went 1-for-4 with a double in his Red Sox debut.

The skidding Sox stopped their three-game losing streak in Anthony Ranaudo's first big league start. The 24 year-old, fresh from Pawtucket, notched his first major league win in front of a sellout crowd that included his parents. Ranaudo went six innings, allowing two runs on four hits and four walks while striking out two.

Wearing number 63, Ranaudo kept the Yankees off the board until the fourth, by which point Boston had staked him to a 2-0 lead on run-scoring hits by Dustin Pedroia (ground-rule double) and David Ortiz (single) the previous inning. Ranaudo's shutout bid ended when Carlos Beltran led off the fourth by lining the rookie's second pitch of the inning and 50th of the game into the right field bullpens.

Unfazed, Ranaudo set down the Yankees in order on 10 pitches and needed only nine to dispatch them the following inning. With Boston leading 3-1 and one out in the sixth Beltran struck again, smoking Ranaudo's 80th offering of the evening into center field for a single that plated Jacoby Ellsbury. Ellsbury, who'd reached on a leadoff walk and stolen second, came around to score and trim Boston's lead to one.

Once again, Ranaudo rebounded from a Beltran breakthrough, this time with the potential tying run on base. He effectively neutralized the threat, first by freezing Brian McCann, then by getting Chase Headley to ground out and end the inning. That was all for Ranaudo, who after 91 pitches was done for the evening.

Tommy Layne, also up from Pawtucket, pitched a 1-2-3 seventh by retiring Drew, new Yankee Martin Prado and old Yankee Brett Gardner. Pedroia got Boston a much-needed insurance run in the bottom of the frame, poking a single up the middle to score Mookie Betts and pick up his second RBI of the game.

That run would prove crucial as Derek Jeter greeted Junichi Tazawa with a home run--Jeter's third of the season--over the Monster, cutting Boston's lead in half with one swing of the bat. Tazawa worked around Mark Teixeira's one out double and a two out walk to Brian McCann, escaping the inning with Boston's lead still intact.

The Red Sox were still nursing that one-run lead when Koji Uehara entered the game in the top of the ninth, looking to nail down his 22nd save of the season. The ever-reliable Uehara made quick work of  the Bombers, retiring the side on 13 pitches.

Bolstered by the arrival of Yoenis Cespedes, Boston will go for its 50th win of the season today. Allen Webster, another recent call-up, is making his second start of the year and first career start against New York. Hopefully he fares as well as Ranaudo did yesterday.

Napoli Bombs Tanaka, Yankees

Napoli follows through on his go-ahead home run (NYDailyNews)

With one flick of his wrists last night, Mike Napoli lined a missile into Yankee Stadium's right field bleachers that gave the Boston Red Sox a 2-1 lead in the top of the ninth, a lead that stood up when Koji Uehara closed the door on the Yankees 15 minutes later.

Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka was still in the game when Napoli stepped up to the plate with two outs in the top of the ninth, having just retired David Ortiz on a double play groundout into the shift. Tanaka had been terrific up to that point, his lone mistake coming in the third inning when David Ross took him deep to put Boston out in front 1-0. But the Yankees had quickly rallied with a run of their own in the bottom of the frame, setting off a classic game of tug-of-war between Tanaka and Boston's Jon Lester.

The score remained knotted at one into the ninth. New York's undisputed ace, who had already fanned Napoli twice in the game already, had the Red Sox slugger right where he wanted him. With a 1-2 count on a notoriously poor two-strike hitter, Tanaka was in the driver's seat, one strike away from calling it a night and getting out of the inning unscathed.

Looking to match power against power, the Japanese phenom reared back and fired his fastball in an attempt to blow Boston's bearded first baseman away. But at the last second Tanaka's 112th pitch of the night, a heater tagged at 96 miles per hour, darted back over the plate. Belt-high and on the outer half, it was the kind of mistake that Napoli crushes for a living, and he didn't miss it. He extended his arms and went with the pitch, driving it on a line towards Alfonso Soriano in right field. Soriano sprinted back, turned as if to expecting to play the carom off the wall, then watched the ball sail into the first row of seats behind the yellow W.B. Mason sign. Napoli's 10th home run of the season just did get over.

An exultant Napoli clapped his hands together as he rounded first. Tanaka's legs buckled on the mound. He looked on in abject horror, like he'd just witnessed one Bleacher Creature eating another. Napoli completed his trip around the bases, high-fived Stephen Drew at the plate and chugged back to the Boston bench, all smiles as he apparently shouted "What an idiot!" to his beaming teammates.

Somewhat surprisingly, Joe Girardi left the rattled hurler in to finish what he started. This time Tanaka finished the job, recovering to fan Drew on four pitches for his eighth K of the night. But it was one batter too late, and Tanaka trudged off the mound, knowing full well that he had likely cost the Yankees the game. For all their struggles this year, the Red Sox--armed with arguably the best closer in baseball--have not lost a game they've led after the eighth inning.

Sure enough, Uehara mowed down Carlos Beltran, fellow countryman Ichiro Suzuki (pinch-hitting for Soriano) and Brian McCann for his 17th save of the season. Lester earned the win for his remarkable performance: eight innings, five hits, a single unearned run and six strikeouts. Tanaka was the tough-luck loser, suffering his second straight loss and falling to 11-3 on the season despite the complete game effort.

The Red Sox will go for the series win as they wrap up their 10-game road trip tonight. With just one road series win in their last eight, their last coming in a two-game sweep of the Braves at Turner Field in late May, the Sox desperately need a turnaround performance from John Lackey, who was shelled by the Mariners his last time out and failed to make it through the fourth inning. Boston's bats will look to wake up against Chase Whitley, a rookie making his ninth career start. The odds appear to be in Boston's favor, which isn't something you've been able to say about them a lot this year.

Cruz Crushing

Cruz has been one of 2014's biggest first half surprises (MLB.com)

When the Baltimore Orioles signed Nelson Cruz to a one-year, $8 million deal during spring training, nobody expected him to emerge as the team's best player. Not on a roster loaded with younger, in-their-prime standouts such as Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, and Manny Machado. Cruz appeared to be a player in decline, and there were serious doubts about what he'd be able to give the Orioles. He was, after all, about to turn 34, coming off a 50-game ban for PED use, and leaving a hitter's paradise in Arlington behind. Why do you think so many teams passed on him?

Well, Cruz quickly erased those doubts by homering in the first two games of the season and hasn't stopped hitting since. He slumped briefly at the beginning of June, but seems to have turned it around with three home runs and nine RBI in his past ten games, including a game-tying grand slam on Wednesday night that sparked the Orioles to an extra-inning victory.

Cruz now leads the major leagues in home runs (with 24) and RBI (64), on pace for 49 and 131, respectively. Even if he falls well short of those totals, he'll still blow his career highs (33 and 90) out of the water. He might as well go ahead and take the rest of the year off, because he's already earned his pay and then some. He's already been hailed as the best bargain of the offseason, and rightly so.

It's tempting to say Cruz can't and won't keep this up, that he'll cool off in the second half like so many sluggers with big first halves tend to do. But it's important to remember that he was hitting well last year before baseball suspended him for the rest of the season. Dating back to the start of last year, a span of 185 game for Cruz (essentially seven months of baseball), he's swatted 51 home runs, driven in 140 and slugged .541. That's a fairly large sample size, and Cruz was successful before that, too.

Could Cruz be juicing again? Given his history, it's not out of the question. It's rare to see players have career years at 33/34, but Cruz was a late-bloomer to begin with. He didn't play his first full season until he was 28, so experience-wise he's where most players are at in their late twenties. That, and the fact that he doesn't have nearly as much mileage as most outfielders in their mid-thirties, could explain why it's clicking for Cruz (and a few more fly balls flying over the fence never hurts, either).

Even if he does tail off in the second half, his pre-All-Star Break performance has been strong enough to merit a considerable pay raise when he becomes a free agent again this winter. He's a good bet to break 40 homers and 100 RBI for the first time, numbers that few in the game today are capable of reaching. That kind of big-time power deserves a big-time contract, and this time around I'm sure someone will give it to him.