Monday, June 8, 2015

Sox Sweep, Starting to Hit

Hanley Ramirez has helped lead the charge for Boston (NESN)
The Red Sox earned their first sweep of the season yesterday, coming from behind to beat the Oakland A's 7-4 at Fenway Park.

Things were looking pretty bleak for Boston as "Sweet Caroline" faded from the stadium loudspeakers, for the Sox entered the bottom half of the eighth facing a 4-0 deficit. Their chances of winning at that point stood at a slim four percent. By inning's end, however, it was a whopping 97 percent. In the span of three outs the odds had completely flipped with Boston exploding for seven runs and eight hits against five different A's pitchers. When Tommy Layne preserved the lead to secure his first save since 2012, the Red Sox clinched just their second win of the season in a game where they trailed after seven innings.

The meltdown by the A's bullpen wasted a phenomenal start from the rookie Kendall Graveman, who blanked Boston through the first seven innings before Rusney Castillo finally touched him for a home run to lead off the bottom of the eighth. Bob Melvin promptly yanked Graveman, who exceeded 100 pitches during Castillo's at-bat, only to watch Oakland's seeming comfortable lead evaporate. When the dust settled at the end of the inning, Boston had gone from being down four to being up three, snatching victory out of the jaws of defeat and reminding everyone that no lead is ever truly safe at Fenway.

The big inning continued a recent resurgence for the Red Sox at the plate. After averaging a pitiful 2.83 runs per game during May, Sox hitters have appeared to turn the corner as of late. In the admittedly small sample size of seven June games, Boston's batted .300 and increased its average scoring output by nearly one run. It's no coincidence that this uptick in offense, combined with steadier pitching, helped the Sox go 5-2 last week.

In particular, the middle of the order has really stepped it up. Hanley Ramirez has rediscovered his early season power stroke with three home runs and nine RBI over his past 11 games. Mike Napoli's caught fire after a brutal start, slugging six home runs and compiling a 1.024 OPS since May 18th. Blake Swihart's also been better since struggling after his initial call up, notching hits in 9 of his last 11 games including his first career home run.

Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts aren't the only ones hitting anymore, but Boston's offense still isn't firing on all cylinders. David Ortiz and Pablo Sandoval are slumping badly, and Mookie Betts has underperformed the massive expectations he created with his monster spring training. If they can get going soon too, then the Red Sox will go on their first real sustained run of excellence of the year. If they hit like they're capable of hitting, then Boston will look like the first place team everyone thought they'd be coming into the season.

Saturday, June 6, 2015

Rodriguez's RBI

A familiar sight over the years: A-Rod greeting teammates at home (ABC News)
There is only one man in baseball history who has compiled more official RBI than Alex Rodriguez, and his name is Hank Aaron. While no longer the home run king, Aaron is still the king of counting stats in many regards. Just look at his player page on Baseball-Reference--it's really quite impressive.

The same can be said about Rodriguez's, especially when you consider that he was a shortstop for the first half of his career and a third baseman for the remainder (though he's now a full-time DH, as most 39 year-olds are). His resume is so well-rounded, and like Aaron, he neglected to have a down season for the longest time. Even his numbers from recent years, when he was old and hurt, are still pretty good.

That's what it takes to be one of the top RBI men of all-time. You have to be in the lineup everyday, driving in runs, year after year after year. Rodriguez has racked up 1,997 to this point in his career, which means he had to average 100 ribbies for 20 years. Most times, if a guy does it for 10 he's a Hall of Famer. It's crazy to think that A-Rod knocked in his first run in 1994--21 years ago--and had his first 100 RBI season in 1996. He's been around a long time.

More importantly, he's been consistently outstanding during the bulk of those seasons. He's the only player in history to top 100 RBI 14 times, and one of just three (Lou Gehrig and Jimmie Foxx are the others) to eclipse the century mark in 13 straight seasons. He may have company in both those categories soon, as Miguel Cabrera is working on a string of 11 straight 100 RBI seasons and is on pace for a 12th here in 2015. Given that he just turned 32 and his eight-year contract extension doesn't begin until next year, Cabrera will have plenty of time to catch Rodriguez and perhaps Aaron atop the all-time leaderboards.

Albert Pujols is also a threat, with a dozen 100 RBI seasons to his name and six seasons remaining on his contract beyond this one. No longer the elite hitter he once was, he's still a capable run producer and will continue to pile up RBI batting behind Mike Trout in the Angels' lineup.

Rodriguez, who is still 300 RBI behind Aaron, isn't going to catch the former home run king (or in home runs, for that matter). He's only under contract for two more years after this one, by which point he'll be 42 and likely finished as a ballplayer. While still a great hitter, he doesn't have the time, health, or supporting cast needed to drive in 100 more runs this year, then 100 in each of the next two years as well. Had he been able to avoid injuries and suspension over the past five years, he probably wouldn't be too far behind, but for now Aaron's record appears safe.

It's weird to me that people were always so quick to claim Rodriguez wasn't clutch--especially during his Yankee years--even though his monster RBI totals were plain for all to see. Granted, he played in some loaded lineups during those years, but he still had to get all those RBI. David Ortiz had terrific teammates too, but that didn't stop people from labeling him one of the best clutch hitters of all time. Never mind that from 2003-2012, in almost the same number of games and plate appearances, Ortiz accumulated 1,088 RBI, and Rodriguez recorded 1,078. That's a difference of one RBI per year, and somehow their reputations as run producers were night and day. Ortiz always came through with the game on the line, it seemed. Rodriguez never did, and only padded his stats in the late innings when games were already decided. It's not true, of course--Rodriguez has virtually the same career OPS in high leverage situations (.956) as low ones (.955)--but that's how the argument went.

I was surprised to see that Rodriguez has only led the league in RBI twice, though both times he was the major league leader (in 2002 and 2007). He narrowly missed two other RBI titles, as he was only a half dozen off the mark in 2001 (shocked to see Bob Boone led that year) and one off Miguel Cabrera in 2010. Cabrera missed the final week of the season, allowing Rodriguez to close the gap. A-Rod nearly equaled Cabrera, only to fall one shy on the season's final day despite having a man on third in each of his final two at-bats. He walked and grounded out, leaving the RBI title secure with Cabrera.

Rodriguez's next major milestone will be his 3,000th hit, which he figures to reach sometime soon (only nine to go after last night's four-hit effort--his first since 2011). It's also possible that he'll get to 2,000 runs by the end of the year, though he still needs 50 more. Health will be the limiting factor, of course, but now that Rodriguez scarcely plays the field he should be able to stay in the lineup almost everyday. That's where he'll need to be if the Yankees hope to remain in first place.

Friday, June 5, 2015

Swihart Swats First Career HR

Swihart's solo shot was a titanic blast onto Lansdowne Street (Fox Sports)
One of the few Red Sox highlights from Boston's ugly 8-4 loss to the Twins yesterday was that Blake Swihart launched the first of what will hopefully be many home runs for the rookie catcher..

With two outs and nobody on, Swihart snapped a 22-game and 75 at-bat homerless streak to begin his career in the bottom of the third. Facing Twins starter Tommy Milone for the second time that day, Swihart laid off two close pitches to put himself up 2-0 in the count. The lefty's third pitch was a mistake, right over the heart of the plate, and Swihart crushed it. His first career blast was a moonshot, clearing the Monster seats and landing 406 feet from home plate. It was a no-doubter, an absolute bomb.

Unfortunately the bases were empty when he left the yard, so it only counted as one. Swihart's blast put the Sox up 3-0, but Boston was unable to hold the lead and ultimately dropped the series finale to Minnesota. It also made him the youngest Sox catcher to go deep since Rich Gedman, a two-time All-Star with Boston, belted his first dinger at the age of 21 during the strike-shortened 1981 season.

The long ball continued a recent resurgence at the plate for Swihart, who has now hit safely in eight of his last nine games. His batting line is still a lowly .218/.247/.295 on the season, but that marks a huge improvement over where it stood just a few weeks ago. The 23 year-old is barely a month into his major league career, after all, and in a perfect world would still be getting additional seasoning down in Pawtucket. But with Christian Vazquez out for the season and Ryan Hanigan sidelined until at least the All-Star Break, Swihart's been thrust into a starting role much sooner than expected. He's learning on the job and experiencing natural growing pains that come with that, which might be more magnified because catchers usually take longer to develop than other position players.

For all of Swihart's struggles at the dish, he's still a better hitter than Boston's other backstop, Sandy Leon. Leon is batting a mere .170 with two RBI on the season and has yet to notch an extra base hit in 57 plate appearances. If Swihart's overmatched, Leon's totally helpless, and it's not like Hanigan was Mike Piazza, either. Catcher has been an offensive black hole for the Sox all season, so it would certainly be nice if Swihart started hitting.

Then again, it would be really nice if every other Red Sock not named Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts started hitting too.

De Aza Trade Dumb

De Aza doesn't make the Red Sox better. If anything, he makes them worse (CBS Boston)
Ben Cherington has made quite a few questionable moves in his four seasons as general manager of the Boston Red Sox, but his recent trade for Alejandro De Aza is one I just can't wrap my head around.

The Red Sox, last in the AL East and second-to-last in the American League, need a lot of things. They've needed starting pitching help for months, could probably use another reliever to solidify the bullpen, and would likely be better off with a new hitting coach (sorry, Chili Davis). One thing they definitely didn't need was another outfielder, especially a thirtysomething one who can't hit. De Aza, 31, has a .636 OPS and -0.1 bWAR this year in a part-time role with the Baltimore Orioles.

Why is this a player that Cherington not only wanted, but went out and got? De Aza can't hit, run, or field, and he's on the wrong side of 30. He's a platoon-only player at this stage of his career, as he's completely incompetent against lefties (0-for-14 versus southpaws this year). He's not inexpensive either, as he's owed over $3 million for the remainder of the season.

What makes this trade even more confusing is that the Red Sox have been trying to figure out what to do with their abundance of outfielders for months. Now they have another one to worry about. Joe Maddon would probably find a way to get something out of De Aza, but John Farrell definitely won't.

I just don't get it, Ben. Your team's in last place, last freaking place, and this is the kind of move you make? Do you honestly think you're going to be a better team with De Aza than without him? Because the stats say you aren't. In fact, you're probably worse. What's the point? Why even bother?

You need to be thinking bigger. Much bigger. Like, Cole Hamels kind of bigger. There's still plenty of time to save your season, but you're not going to do it by bringing in the Alejandro De Azas of the world. Work out a trade for an impact player, preferably someone who can take the ball every fifth day and not get lit up every other start. Identify a hole--your team has plenty of those--and plug it. Don't waste time fixing the sideview mirror when your car's completely totaled.

Because De Aza won't make an ounce of difference for your team this year. So please, find somebody who will.

Sox Blow Early Lead, Settle for Split

Hunter connects for a three-run homer, his 200th with the Twins (Star Tribune)
The Boston Red Sox were in complete control of yesterday's series finale versus the Minnesota Twins through the first four innings. Boston led 4-0, had opposing starter Tommy Milone on the ropes, and Steven Wright was baffling Twins batters with his knuckleball. It looked as though the Sox were headed for an easy win, not to mention their first series win in almost two weeks.

That momentum evaporated with one swing of Torii Hunter's aging bat in the top of the fifth, when the 39 year-old crushed a three-run homer over the Monster to bring Minnesota back to within one. The Twins tied the game the next inning--Wright's last--aided by an overthrow from Pablo Sandoval into the Boston dugout.

The Red Sox still appeared to be in good shape heading into the ninth inning, what with Koji Uehara on the mound (one earned run allowed in the past six weeks) and the top of their order due up in the bottom half. All Koji had to do was keep the Twins off the board and turn the game over to Boston's best hitters--Dustin Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez, and David Ortiz.

Shockingly, Uehara failed to record a single out despite getting two strikes on three of the four batters he faced. Brian Dozier stroked a two-strike single, then Hunter did the same. In a bizarre and highly questionable managerial move by Paul Molitor, Joe Mauer laid down a sacrifice bunt that dribbled out in front of the plate. Rookie catcher Blake Swihart rushed out to retrieve it and fired to third, hoping to nail the lead runner, but his throw was low and eluded Sandoval's glove, ending up in left field. The gaffe scored Dozier, giving Minnesota the lead, and advanced Hunter to third.

Trevor Plouffe worked the count full, then drove a single to left that absolutely could have been caught had Hanley Ramirez gotten a better jump and/or been a faster human being. Instead it landed over his head and bounced up against the wall. Hunter, who would have scored easily even if Hanley had made the catch, came home while Mauer moved up to second.

John Farrell had seen enough from his rattled closer, and removed him in favor of Craig Breslow. Breslow only made things worse, however, allowing two more runs to score and essentially putting the game out of reach for Boston. The Red Sox batters did their part by going down 1-2-3 in the bottom of the ninth against Twins closer and likely All-Star Glen Perkins, who nailed down his second save in less than 24 hours.

The Red Sox hope to get back on track tonight against the only American League team with a worse record than them--the scuffling Oakland A's. Wade Miley will try to even his record at 5-5 as well as bounce back from a horrendous outing in Texas last weekend, where he was battered for nine hits and six runs (five earned) in four innings. Boston will face a much tougher opponent in the form of Scott Kazmir, whose ERA is more than two full runs lower than Miley's at 2.93. First pitch will be at 7:10 PM EST.