Papi Powers 500th

Ortiz follows through on the 500th moon shot of his career (Telezkope.com)

They say baseball is a young man's game, and with a few notable exceptions, they are right. David Ortiz is one such exception.

Two months shy of his 40th birthday, Ortiz is still one of the best hitters in baseball. He's posted huge numbers for a lackluster Red Sox team, batting .275/.361/.556 with 34 home runs, 31 doubles and 95 RBI. It's another typically excellent season for Ortiz, who continues to defy his age as he reaches a point where most of his contemporaries have retired. Only four players who appeared in a game in 1997 are still playing today, and David Ortiz is one of them. He's aged like fine wine, amassing more home runs during his 30s than all but eight players in big league history.

This season--his 19th--has been a microcosm of his entire career. He started slow, casting doubts about his performance, only to turn it around and finish with a bang. A lot of people gave up on him, but as always he proved them wrong.

The Red Sox first gave him the chance to prove people wrong 13 years ago after the Twins released him. Although he'd swatted 20 home runs and slugged .500 in 2002, it was the height of the steroid era and teams weren't exactly clamoring for his services. If they had been, then Ortiz wouldn't have signed a one-year, $1.25 million deal to join Boston--a team that couldn't guarantee him regular playing time due to its logjam of corner infielders and DH-types.

At the time, nobody could have known that Theo Epstein, in his eighth week on the job as Boston's wunderkind GM, had just acquired one of the most prodigious power hitters in major league history--not to mention one of the best bargains ever. Not even in Epstein's wildest dreams did he foresee Ortiz being part of three championship teams (and counting), breaking Jimmie Foxx's single season home run record for a Red Sox, or setting a new franchise record for most 30-homer seasons.

There's also no way he could have envisioned Ortiz eventually joining the 500 home run club. When Ortiz signed with the Red Sox, he had just 58 home runs to his name--fewer than any other member of the 500 club had at the same age (by which point several had already hit that many or more in a single season), making 500 all but unattainable. To get there, he'd have to average 34 long balls per year until his 40th birthday--a near-impossible task for someone who had never topped 20 home runs in a season.

Ortiz needed a ridiculous run to reach the milestone--a monster peak in his late 20s/early 30s followed by a decade of sustained excellence. Had he tailed off in his 30s, like most players do, he would have fallen way short. Time and the odds were against him.

So when Ortiz started slipping in his mid-30s, averaging 27 home runs per year from age 32-36 after blasting 42 per year from 27-31, 500 looked out of reach. When the 2013 season began, the then-37 year-old still had 99 to go and injuries were becoming a problem, as he suffered a season-ending Achilles injury while rounding the bases on a home run in 2012 and opened 2013 on the disabled list. While his bat was still potent, his body was breaking down, and it seemed like only a matter of time before his vicious swing followed suit.

But Ortiz wasn't close to done. He responded with his seventh 30-homer, 100 RBI season in 2013, followed by his eighth in 2014. That put him within range--one big season shy of 500.

Ortiz gets a congratulatory hug from longtime teammate Dustin Pedroia (WCVB)

Still, it seemed unlikely Ortiz would surpass 500 this year, let alone with three weeks remaining in the season. Ortiz opened the year 34 homers shy of the milestone, a number he'd reached just once in the previous seven seasons. And while he'd finished 2014 with 35, the likelihood of him repeating that number again in his age-39 season was low.

Any hope of him getting to 500 appeared dashed two months into the season, with Ortiz mired in one of the worst slumps of his career. He'd managed just six long balls a third of the way through the year, putting him in serious danger of finishing a season under 20 for the first time since 2001. It looked like we'd have to wait until next year for number 500.

But as spring turned to summer, Ortiz rediscovered his power stroke. He crushed seven home runs in June and seven more in July. He socked nine in August, bringing him to within five of 500. With a decent month of September, he'd get there before fall arrived.

Ortiz remained dialed in through the first two weeks of the month, allowing him to reach the milestone with plenty of time to spare. He began this weekend's series in Tampa Bay sitting on 498. After slugging no. 499 his first time up Saturday, he wasted no time in drilling his 500th. Leading off the top of the fifth with Boston ahead 7-0, he belted a long home run into the right field bleachers off Matt Moore--a lefty who would have given Ortiz fits five years ago or even five months ago. But when Ortiz is locked in, he rakes everybody.

While the 500 home run club isn't as exclusive as it used to be thanks to the steroid era, Ortiz's bomb was still special for a number of reasons. He joined former teammate Manny Ramirez in becoming one of four players to hit their 500th homer as a member of the Red Sox--the most of any franchise (pretty surprising, actually, considering Fenway Park is one of the tougher parks to homer in). Interestingly, the other two to do so--Ted Williams and Jimmie Foxx--were also one-time teammates, with Foxx crushing his 500th during the Kid's rookie season.

That Ortiz reached the big number with a multi-homer game was also exceptionally rare: Albert Pujols is the only other one to do it. Fittingly enough, Pujols is also the only player with more home runs since Ortiz joined the Red Sox.

Lastly, Ortiz is only the fourth player with 500 homers and three World Series rings, but the first to have never won any of those rings with the Yankees. The others--Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, and Reggie Jackson--won multiple championships in pinstripes.

With 500 in the books, the only question is how much higher can Ortiz climb? There's still plenty of time to pass Eddie Murray (504), by season's end, but he'll have to wait until next year before he can start really rising up the ranks. Another 30-homer season would put him in Mantle/Foxx territory, not to mention trigger his team option for 2017. If Papi has another 50 homers in his bat, that would put him above Mike Schmidt but behind Manny and Pujols, just outside the top-15. Should he struggle next year and decide to call it quits, he could still make his way into the top-20 if he belts #522 to pass Frank Thomas, Willie McCovey, and Teddy Ballgame.

But no matter where he winds up, Ortiz has had a remarkable run. The once-nixed Twin has secured a place among baseball's elite, alongside names nobody was comparing him to 13 years ago. The Mike Trouts and Bryce Harpers of the world have conditioned us to expect greatness from day one, but not every star is one from the start. Sometimes it takes time. Sometimes it requires patience. And sometimes all somebody needs is a second chance.

Rodriguez's RBI

A familiar sight over the years: A-Rod greeting teammates at home (ABC News)

There is only one man in baseball history who has compiled more official RBI than Alex Rodriguez, and his name is Hank Aaron. While no longer the home run king, Aaron is still the king of counting stats in many regards. Just look at his player page on Baseball-Reference--it's really quite impressive.

The same can be said about Rodriguez's, especially when you consider that he was a shortstop for the first half of his career and a third baseman for the remainder (though he's now a full-time DH, as most 39 year-olds are). His resume is so well-rounded, and like Aaron, he neglected to have a down season for the longest time. Even his numbers from recent years, when he was old and hurt, are still pretty good.

That's what it takes to be one of the top RBI men of all-time. You have to be in the lineup everyday, driving in runs, year after year after year. Rodriguez has racked up 1,997 to this point in his career, which means he had to average 100 ribbies for 20 years. Most times, if a guy does it for 10 he's a Hall of Famer. It's crazy to think that A-Rod knocked in his first run in 1994--21 years ago--and had his first 100 RBI season in 1996. He's been around a long time.

More importantly, he's been consistently outstanding during the bulk of those seasons. He's the only player in history to top 100 RBI 14 times, and one of just three (Lou Gehrig and Jimmie Foxx are the others) to eclipse the century mark in 13 straight seasons. He may have company in both those categories soon, as Miguel Cabrera is working on a string of 11 straight 100 RBI seasons and is on pace for a 12th here in 2015. Given that he just turned 32 and his eight-year contract extension doesn't begin until next year, Cabrera will have plenty of time to catch Rodriguez and perhaps Aaron atop the all-time leaderboards.

Albert Pujols is also a threat, with a dozen 100 RBI seasons to his name and six seasons remaining on his contract beyond this one. No longer the elite hitter he once was, he's still a capable run producer and will continue to pile up RBI batting behind Mike Trout in the Angels' lineup.

Rodriguez, who is still 300 RBI behind Aaron, isn't going to catch the former home run king (or in home runs, for that matter). He's only under contract for two more years after this one, by which point he'll be 42 and likely finished as a ballplayer. While still a great hitter, he doesn't have the time, health, or supporting cast needed to drive in 100 more runs this year, then 100 in each of the next two years as well. Had he been able to avoid injuries and suspension over the past five years, he probably wouldn't be too far behind, but for now Aaron's record appears safe.

It's weird to me that people were always so quick to claim Rodriguez wasn't clutch--especially during his Yankee years--even though his monster RBI totals were plain for all to see. Granted, he played in some loaded lineups during those years, but he still had to get all those RBI. David Ortiz had terrific teammates too, but that didn't stop people from labeling him one of the best clutch hitters of all time. Never mind that from 2003-2012, in almost the same number of games and plate appearances, Ortiz accumulated 1,088 RBI, and Rodriguez recorded 1,078. That's a difference of one RBI per year, and somehow their reputations as run producers were night and day. Ortiz always came through with the game on the line, it seemed. Rodriguez never did, and only padded his stats in the late innings when games were already decided. It's not true, of course--Rodriguez has virtually the same career OPS in high leverage situations (.956) as low ones (.955)--but that's how the argument went.

I was surprised to see that Rodriguez has only led the league in RBI twice, though both times he was the major league leader (in 2002 and 2007). He narrowly missed two other RBI titles, as he was only a half dozen off the mark in 2001 (shocked to see Bob Boone led that year) and one off Miguel Cabrera in 2010. Cabrera missed the final week of the season, allowing Rodriguez to close the gap. A-Rod nearly equaled Cabrera, only to fall one shy on the season's final day despite having a man on third in each of his final two at-bats. He walked and grounded out, leaving the RBI title secure with Cabrera.

Rodriguez's next major milestone will be his 3,000th hit, which he figures to reach sometime soon (only nine to go after last night's four-hit effort--his first since 2011). It's also possible that he'll get to 2,000 runs by the end of the year, though he still needs 50 more. Health will be the limiting factor, of course, but now that Rodriguez scarcely plays the field he should be able to stay in the lineup almost everyday. That's where he'll need to be if the Yankees hope to remain in first place.

Swihart Swats First Career HR

Swihart's solo shot was a titanic blast onto Lansdowne Street (Fox Sports)

One of the few Red Sox highlights from Boston's ugly 8-4 loss to the Twins yesterday was that Blake Swihart launched the first of what will hopefully be many home runs for the rookie catcher..

With two outs and nobody on, Swihart snapped a 22-game and 75 at-bat homerless streak to begin his career in the bottom of the third. Facing Twins starter Tommy Milone for the second time that day, Swihart laid off two close pitches to put himself up 2-0 in the count. The lefty's third pitch was a mistake, right over the heart of the plate, and Swihart crushed it. His first career blast was a moonshot, clearing the Monster seats and landing 406 feet from home plate. It was a no-doubter, an absolute bomb.

Unfortunately the bases were empty when he left the yard, so it only counted as one. Swihart's blast put the Sox up 3-0, but Boston was unable to hold the lead and ultimately dropped the series finale to Minnesota. It also made him the youngest Sox catcher to go deep since Rich Gedman, a two-time All-Star with Boston, belted his first dinger at the age of 21 during the strike-shortened 1981 season.

The long ball continued a recent resurgence at the plate for Swihart, who has now hit safely in eight of his last nine games. His batting line is still a lowly .218/.247/.295 on the season, but that marks a huge improvement over where it stood just a few weeks ago. The 23 year-old is barely a month into his major league career, after all, and in a perfect world would still be getting additional seasoning down in Pawtucket. But with Christian Vazquez out for the season and Ryan Hanigan sidelined until at least the All-Star Break, Swihart's been thrust into a starting role much sooner than expected. He's learning on the job and experiencing natural growing pains that come with that, which might be more magnified because catchers usually take longer to develop than other position players.

For all of Swihart's struggles at the dish, he's still a better hitter than Boston's other backstop, Sandy Leon. Leon is batting a mere .170 with two RBI on the season and has yet to notch an extra base hit in 57 plate appearances. If Swihart's overmatched, Leon's totally helpless, and it's not like Hanigan was Mike Piazza, either. Catcher has been an offensive black hole for the Sox all season, so it would certainly be nice if Swihart started hitting.

Then again, it would be really nice if every other Red Sock not named Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts started hitting too.

Beltre vs. Cabrera

Beltre belts the 400th long ball of his career (Fox Sports)

Adrian Beltre launched the 400th home run of his career last Friday night, slamming a 3-0 pitch his first time up against Bruce Chen into Globe Life's grassy knoll. With the solo shot, Beltre became just the fifth third baseman to surpass 400 career homers, joining Hall of Famers Mike Schmidt and Eddie Mathews, future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones, and Hall of Very Good member Darrell Evans.

The Rangers third baseman is off to a slow start this year, batting just .259/.296/.416 with five home runs and 15 RBI. It's too soon to tell whether this is merely an early season slump or the beginnings of decline for the 36 year-old, who is owed $16 million this year and $18 million next year. It's hard to believe he simply lost it overnight after averaging an .899 OPS (139 OPS+) with 29 home runs and 96 RBI over the past five years, but he is at an age where that happens to hitters. Bad luck seems to have played a part (his BABiP is .260), but his hard-hit percentage and HR/FB rate are down for the third straight year, which suggests his bat speed is in decline.

If this is indeed the beginning of the end for Beltre, he's had one helluva run. The 400 homers barely scratch the the surface for the 2004 NL MVP runner-up, who's amassed over 2,600 hits, 500 doubles, and 100 stolen bases. His next RBI will be the 1,400th of his career. The four-time Gold Glove winner has also been one of the best defensive third basemen in recent memory, which combined with his excellent production at the plate has helped him accumulate nearly 80 career bWAR. If he retired today he'd be a deserving Hall of Famer.

The same could be said for Miguel Cabrera, who also joined the 400 home run club last week. Cabrera became the 53rd player in baseball history with at least 400 career big flies the day after Beltre became the 52nd. Like Beltre's, Cabrera's was a first-inning solo shot to dead center that made landfall in a grassy batter's eye (at Comerica Park). Interestingly, neither has homered since.

Unlike Beltre, however, Cabrera has shown no signs of slowing down. Miggy's off to a rip-roaring start with 10 home runs, 31 RBI and a scorching .336/.440/.592 line thus far. To be fair, he is a full four years younger than Cabrera, which can be the difference between a player's prime and twilight when he's on the wrong side of 30. Cabrera has also benefited from spending the bulk of his career at first base, a much less demanding position than third, although he did man the hot corner for awhile in his younger days and again when he and Prince Fielder were briefly teammates.

Cabrera rounds the bases after his rain-soaked milestone blast (SB Nation)

Though their 400th home runs took nearly identical trajectories, the career paths of Beltre and Cabrera could not be more different. Both debuted at young ages (Beltre was 19, Cabrera 20) and put up similar numbers in their age-20 seasons, but after that their careers diverged. Cabrera immediately developed into a star, stringing together 11 straight seasons of 25 or more home runs and at least 100 RBI--numbers which he's on pace to surpass for the 12th consecutive season in 2015. He peaked as a hitter in his late 20s, as most ballplayers do, when he became the first man in 45 years to win the Triple Crown and copped back-to-back MVP awards.

It took Beltre much longer to reach that elite level. His progress stalled in his early 20s, throughout which he was an average hitter outside his fluky monster 2004, when he belted an ML-leading 48 home runs and put up a 1.017 OPS. His numbers were stifled by brutal home parks (Dodger Stadium and Safeco), and through age 30 his career line stood at .270/.325/.453--hardly Cooperstown worthy. In light of his monster contract, most viewed him as a disappointment.

Over the past six years, however, he's benefited from two of the best hitter's parks in baseball (Fenway and Arlington), which have helped him enjoy the sustained stretch of dominance most Hall of Fame voters look for in a career. At ages when most players slip offensively, Beltre became one of the best hitters in the game. We've seen this happen with "late bloomers" like Jose Bautista and Raul Ibanez as well, but the difference is that Beltre accomplished enough during his 20s to compile Cooperstown-caliber statistics.

Although their overall numbers are similar, their playing styles are as different as night and day. Cabrera is the prototypical plodding slugger, a slow first base/DH type with impressive power totals and a patient plate approach. At 6'4 and 240 pounds, he looks the part and has a smooth swing to boot. Cabrera also plays the game with a smile and boyish enthusiasm reminiscent of Ernie Banks.

Beltre, on the other hand, plays the game with a Ty Cobb level of ferocity unrivaled in today's game. He scowls far more often than he smiles, and his swing could best be described as vicious. The slick-fielding third baseman is also much more athletic than Cabrera, probably a byproduct of his compact but powerful 5'11, 220 pound frame.

It's funny, then, that both played third base. Beltre was one of the best to ever play the position, while Cabrera was one of the worst. Cabrera was a much better hitter than Beltre, however, and so they'll likely wind up even in terms of career value. In both cases, though, they will have more than enough to make the Hall of Fame.

Soriano Smashes 400th Homer

Soriano smashes his milestone home run at the Rogers Centre

Alfonso Soriano, featured in this space two weeks ago while in the midst of a scalding hot streak, crushed two more home runs last night. The pair of long balls pushed his career total to an even 400, something only 50 men (six of them Yankees) have accomplished before.

New York was already leading Toronto 1-0 when Soriano stepped in for his first at-bat, and threatening to add more with Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano aboard. The ever-aggressive Soriano jumped all over the first pitch he saw from J.A. Happ and crushed it--a towering, no-doubt-about-it moonshot into the left field stands. His monster three-run jack dealt a major blow to the Blue Jays, but more importantly it gave Andy Pettitte a nice cushion to work with before he even toed the rubber.

The score was still 4-0 when Soriano led off the top of the third, but it didn't stay the way for long. Soriano swung at the first pitch again and got the same result. His second blast barely cleared the yard, sailing over a leaping Kevin Pillar and bouncing off the back of the left field fence. Mark Reynolds and Alex Rodriguez later added solo shots of their own, and that proved to be more than enough support for Pettitte. The crafty southpaw hurled seven shutout innings, handcuffing Jose Reyes, Edwin Encarnacion and co. as the Bronx Bombers cruised to a 7-1 victory over their division rivals.

The win was a big one for the Yankees, who have won 12 of their past 17 but still sit 4.5 games out of the second Wild Card spot. With a month left in the season, New York still has time to make up that ground--about one game in the standings per week. The odds of that happening, however, are slim. Baseball-Prospectus estimates their playoff chances are seven percent. Coolstandings.com is only slightly more optimistic, pegging their postseason odds at ten percent.

There's no margin for error. The Yankees need to sprint to the finish line and hope the guy in front of them slips on a banana peel. They have one more game in Toronto tonight--a likely win with Hiroki Kuroda on the bump--before heading back to the Bronx for a pivotal ten-game homestand. They're fighting for their playoff lives, but at least they'll get to battle on their home turf, where they're significantly better (.585 winning percentage) than they are everywhere else (.478).

And if last night's performance is any indication of things to come from Soriano, he's going to win some games with his bat down the stretch. His heavy hitting has fueled the Yankees' recent tear, and if he keeps it up he may be able to single-handedly slug New York into the postseason. If he can do that, the late-July trade that brought him back to the Big Apple, that was ordered by Hal Steinbrenner against the wishes of Brian Cashman, will go down as one of the best midseason deals of all-time.

Yankee management has made a lot of questionable moves recently, whiffing on the likes of Kevin Youkilis, Travis Hafner, and Vernon Wells. But bringing back Soriano, another old and overpaid star, has been a home run.

Mr. 4,000

Last night, Ichiro Suzuki did something that only two men in baseball history (Pete Rose and Ty Cobb) have done before him: he notched the 4,000th hit of his professional career.

With the Toronto Blue Jays in town and more than 36,000 on hand at Yankee Stadium, the great Ichrio dug in against reigning NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey. Both have struggled this year, with Dickey failing to replicate his magical 2012 and Suzuki batting nearly 50 points below his career average.

That didn't seem to phase either combatant last night, for Dickey delivered a strong start and Suzuki made history--in his first at-bat of the evening, no less. Dickey was off to a good start, having just struck out Brett Gardner looking sharp as Ichiro performed his signature pre-batting ritual. The crowd trained its phones and cameras on Suzuki, hoping to witness something nobody had seen since Ronald Reagan's presidency.

Thankfully, Suzuki didn't make them wait long. On the third pitch he saw, Ichrio reached out, flicked his wrists and lined a bullet past third baseman Brett Lawrie, who lunged towards the smash but couldn't come up with it. Kevin Pillar scooped it up in left as Suzuki motored around first, his knock official. Play was stopped, and the Yankees dugout emptied--not to fight, as they had on Sunday, but to celebrate--as Ichiro was swarmed by congratulatory teammates.

The swing (pictured above), and the hit that followed, was classic Ichiro. Suzuki used his quick hands, masterful bat control, and blazing speed to slap and poke his way to a career unlike any other. From 2001--the year he won both the AL Rookie of the Year and MVP awards (something only Fred Lynn has ever done)--through 2010, he batted above .300, rapped out more than 200 hits, won the Gold Glove and made the All-Star team every freaking year. His average season produced 105 runs, 224 hits, 38 steals, and a .331/.376/.430 batting line. He was like Tony Gwynn, Roberto Clemente, and Rod Carew all rolled into one.

Since then, age (combined with the wear and tear of playing everyday) has deteriorated Suzuki into a merely average player. The two-time batting champ is a .276 hitter (with no power) over the past three years. His arm is still as powerful as ever, but he's lost a step in the field and so his overall defensive value has diminished. He can run, just not as often.

But Ichiro is fit and trim--he takes excellent care of himself--as he prepares to celebrate his 40th birthday this October. He still has another year with the Yankees and will likely play beyond that, if he so chooses. The baseball legend should have no problem finding a job as he closes in 3,000 big league hits (he has 278 to go). Someone will pay him to wear their uniform when he achieves the milestone.

It was easy to take the first couple thousand for granted. Ichiro made it look so easy, as if he could place the ball exactly where he wanted. He was an artist. He was a machine. It was beautiful to watch.

So now, with a great player approaching the end of a storied career, let's appreciate every drag bunt, seeing-eye single, and screaming line drive. Because there's never been a baseball player like Ichiro before. And there might never be another.

LeBron Youngest to 20,000

Last night LeBron James of the Miami Heat became the youngest player in NBA history to reach 20,000 points.

He was 28 years and 17 days old when he took the court in Oakland, needing 18 points to reach the benchmark.  Aggressive from the start, King James didn't wait around. He came out shooting and got his milestone by halftime, helping Miami build a 14-point lead over the Golden State Warriors. With his scoring goal accomplished, James started spreading the ball around and found open teammates. He had already notched his 5,000th career assist in the first half as well (joining Kobe Bryant and Kevin Garnett as the only active players with 20K points and 5K helpers), but kept passing and finished the game with ten dimes to go along with his 25 points and seven rebounds.  With LBJ facilitating their offense, the Heat built their lead up to 34 points in the third quarter. Miami cruised to a 92-75 blowout from there, allowing Erik Spoelstra to rest his starters in the fourth quarter. With the win, Spo's squad held on to their one game lead over the New York Knicks for first place in the Eastern Conference.

The Heat had struggled on their current roadtrip, losing three games to Indiana, Portland and Utah.  Even so, the shorthanded Warriors, without Andrew Bogut (ankle) and Stephen Curry (knee), never stood a chance. Mark Jackson's squad struggled to get good looks against Miami's defense and shot just 36.3 percent from the floor, including 25 percent from beyond the arc.  It also didn't help that they committed 21 turnovers, ten more than Miami. But it wasn't all bad for Golden State. In his first start of the season, Jarrett Jack filled in for Curry and scored 16 points on 7-of-14 shooting. David Lee and Carl Landry both notched double-doubles. The Warriors get a day off to lick their wounds, only to face another challenging matchup tomorrow night when they square off with Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and the San Antonio Spurs.

James just set one record, but he still has a long way to go (18,380 points to be exact, more than Isiah Thomas, Magic Johnson, Chris Webber, and Kevin McHale scored in their entire NBA careers) to tie Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's record for most career points. He's already more than halfway there, but that's a lot of ground to make up.  To reuse a comparison I made two summers ago, Alex Rodriguez was the youngest player to 500 home runs, well on his way to passing Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron and Barry Bonds. Now, based on his declining performance and inability to stay healthy, I'm skeptical he'll hit 700 home runs, much less the 800 some once projected him for. To some extent, the same thing is happening to Albert Pujols as well.

It's impossible to predict injuries. LBJ is built like an Abrams tank and never gets hurt, but you could have said the same thing about A-Rod five years ago. Forecasting athletic careers is a dangerous game. A lot can change very quickly. Father Time catches up to everyone eventually, and luck contributes more to athletes' health than we would like to believe. Especially in basketball, where a mistimed jump or awkward landing can spell doom. You're always one play away from a catastrophic career-altering injury. The bottom line is that even the best players break down in their thirties, and who's to say James will still be playing like Michael Jordan ten years from now?

But the real reason I'm not betting on him to break is the scoring drop-off that resulted from his joining forces with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. Despite improving his efficiency--his field goal percentage has improved every year since 2006-2007--his slight slip in shot attempts, especially those from the charity stripe and three-point range, have cut into his scoring numbers. Excluding his rookie year, James averaged 29 points on 21.1 field goal attempts per game-- 4.5 of which were of the three-point variety--and 9.5 free throw attempts per game in his last six seasons with Cleveland. Since taking his talents to South Beach, his scoring has dropped to 26.7 points on 18.7 shots per game. He's getting to the line less often than at any point since his rookie season, and his three point attempts are down 33 percent. There's no denying that James is a much better player and more polished scorer than he was in his early days with the Cavs, but now that he's surrounded by a great supporting cast he simply doesn't need to score as much. My money's on Kevin Durant to break Jabbar's record (assuming Kobe Bryant doesn't get there first) and think James will end up somewhere in the 35,000-36,000 point range.

The Heat wrap up their West Coast swing tonight against the Los Angeles Lakers in a must-see battle of the Big Threes: James, Wade, and Bosh versus Bryant, Steve Nash and Dwight Howard (Pau Gasol will receive limited minutes in his first game back from a concussion). A few months ago this game looked like a preview of the NBA finals, and while the Heat have held up their end of the bargain LA is languishing four games below .500. After firing Mike Brown just five games into the season, the aging Lakers have yet to gel under Mike D'Antoni. They endured a six-game losing streak to begin the new year, but are coming off back-to-back wins against Cleveland and Milwaukee. The Lakers are going to turn it around at some point and get on a roll, but can they do it tonight against the top team in the Eastern Conference?

Tune in to TNT tonight to find out.