Ellsbury's Slam Saves Yanks

Ellsbury's 100th career homer was also his first grand slam (New York Daily News)

In the seventh inning of Friday night's wild slugfest at Yankee Stadium, which New York won 14-11 in 10 innings despite trailing 9-1 in the sixth and 11-4 in the seventh (way to go, Orioles bullpen), Yankee center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury did something he'd never done before in a Major League game.

New York trailed by seven runs when Ellsbury stepped to the plate with the sacks full and one out in the bottom of the seventh. The Yankees were threatening, but they desperately needed a hit from their cleanup man, who was 0-for-3 to that point (why's he hitting fourth in the first place?!). Their chances of winning were three percent, and it was starting to get late real early in the Bronx.

Hoping to keep the rally going, Ellsbury got himself into a 2-1 count against lefty Vidal Nuno, who was looking shaky after allowing Chase Headley to double and walking Matt Holliday to load the bases. Now Nuno needed to throw a strike, and everyone in the park knew it.

But as he lifted his right leg and aimed a 92 mile-per-hour fastball towards home plate, the possibility of a grand slam seemed remote. For starters, Ellsbury has never been much of a power hitter, reaching double digit homers only twice in 11 seasons. When he does go yard, it tends to be against right-handers and in the second half. The platoon split has become even more pronounced recently, as he managed just one homer in 196 plate appearances against lefties last year.

Career vs. RHP: 1 homer per 39 at-bats
Career vs. LHP: 1 homer per 75 at-bats

Career before July 1st: 1 homer per 71 at-bats
Career after July 1st: 1 homer per 34 at-bats

He also homers less frequently from the seventh inning on (about once every 54 at-bats), but the gap there is less substantial.

There was also the fact that Ellsbury had as many career grand slams as the nearly 37,000 non-Major Leaguers in attendance that night. He had hit 99 home runs, but none with ducks on the pond. He'd plated 73 runs in 106 bases-loaded plate appearances and amassed 478 career RBIs, but never four at once.

So, to recap: Ellsbury hitting a home run at all -- unlikely. Ellsbury hitting a home run off a lefty in April -- even more unlikely. Ellsbury knocking a grand slam out of the park -- unprecedented. The only thing working in Ellsbury's favor was Nuno's propensity for serving up long balls (career 1.5 HR/9 rate), but even that doesn't mean much when you consider that he's only thrown 340 innings in his career.

But that's the beauty of baseball. There are so many games and pitches and at-bats that crazy things happen all the time. Just this weekend, Anthony Rendon went 6-for-6 with three homers and 10 RBIs, the Dodgers drilled three straight homers before walking off in the bottom of the ninth, and Jacoby Ellsbury finally hits a grand slam.

How could he not? That pitch from Nuno was a meatball, straight as an arrow and right down Broadway. A batting practice fastball just begging to be crushed.

And Ellsbury crushed it alright, launching it 417 feet into the right-center bleachers -- his longest homer of the season by 35 feet. The scoreboard read 11-8, the Stadium was rocking, and New York's chances of victory had soared from three percent all the way to...10 percent. The psychological shift, though, was much greater. Teams almost never come back from seven-run deficits, particularly in the late innings. There's just not enough time, and bullpens are too deep nowadays. But get a few men on in an inning, and a three-run lead can disappear with one swing.

Sure enough, Ellsbury's blast proved to be a turning point in the game. The Orioles were so demoralized that after piling up 11 runs in the previous five innings, they managed only one baserunner over the next three frames. The rejuvenated Yankees, meanwhile, rallied to tie the game with three runs in the ninth before completing their epic comeback with three more in the tenth.

It took more than 5,000 plate appearances over 11 years for Jacoby Ellsbury to hit his first grand slam. At that rate, it might also be his last. But if it is, at least he made it count.

Players Who Powered Up in 2015

Pujols proved he still has plenty of pop left in his bat (LA Times)

Throughout baseball history, 40-homer seasons have been incredibly rare, usually reserved for superstars and all-or-nothing sluggers. Ted Williams only reached the benchmark once, and Stan Musial never did (though he nearly did in his otherworldly 1948 campaign). Jim Rice, Joe DiMaggio, and Frank Robinson only did it once. Eddie Murray and Fred McGriff have as many 40-homer seasons as you and me.

 

Then the steroid era happened, and all of the sudden 40-homers weren't so special. 50 became the new 40, and 70 became the new 60. A record 17 players socked 40 in 1996, four more than did so during the entire 1980s.

 

It wasn't a fluke; it was the start of a trend. At least a dozen players cleared 40 every year from 1996-2001--the height of the steroid era. Things got a little less crazy after that as the strike zone became better regulated and PED testing was put into place, but 40-homer seasons were still commonplace. No fewer than eight men crossed the threshold every year from 2002-2006, bearing in mind again that just nine did so in the '80s (excluding the juiced-ball year of 1987, when four players whacked 40).

 

The past decade has seen a marked reduction of offense across baseball. The strike zone is bigger, pitchers throw harder, and hitters aren't juicing (as much). Home run rates have fallen considerably, to the point where 40 homers has become a special feat again. In 2008 only two players hit 40--the fewest for a non-strike-shortened season since 1992. 

 

It wasn't a fluke. That number remained the same in 2010, 2011, and 2012. In 2014, just one player hit 40 homers and nobody else had more than 37. That special creature was Nelson Cruz who, funnily enough, remained unsigned that year until spring training was already underway. He slugged 40 on the nose, meaning baseball nearly had its first season without a 40 home run hitter since 1982. Once again, 40 homers was the hallmark of a great slugger.

In 2015, however, that downward trend reversed. Scoring increased over the previous two years, largely thanks to elevated run totals in August and September. The surge was primarily fueled by a big increase in homers, which spiked 17.3 percent year-over-year.

The added long balls were especially noticeable at the top of the home run leaderboards, as a whopping nine players topped 40 homers (with a tenth--Edwin Encarnacion--just missing). That's the most since 2006 and as many as the previous three seasons combined.

So I wanted to know--was this a fluke because several guys had career years, or can we expect to see a similar number of 40-homer hitters next year. Here's a look at this year's 40 home run club and whether I think they'll do it again.

 

Davis re-established himself as the game's premier power hitter (CBS Sports)

Chris Davis (47)

Davis is one of the best sluggers in the game, so it was not surprising that he paced the majors in dingers this year (or strikeouts, for that matter). He's going to be 30 next year--still in the heart of his prime--but his free agency makes him tough to project, as moving to a pitching-friendly venue could cost him some long balls. It's worth noting that 92 of his 159 homers over the past four years (58 percent) came at Camden Yards, so leaving Baltimore might put a bit of a dent in his tater totals. That said, if I had to bet on one player launching 40+ moon shots next year, he's the guy.

Nelson Cruz (44)

Given that Cruz was the sole player to surpass 40 bombs last year, it shouldn't have been a shock that he did so again. Except that it was, because it's really hard to hit 40 home runs when you're in your mid-30s, have a lengthy injury history, and move to one of the most pitching-friendly parks in baseball. None of that hindered Cruz, who made good in his first season with the Mariners. His numbers would have looked better had he signed almost anywhere else, for 27 of his 44 bombs came away from Safeco. Who would have guessed that an injury-prone slugger like Cruz would not only develop into one of the best hitters in baseball, but that he would do so after leaving Arlington? I doubt Cruz ever hits 40 again, but he's proved me wrong before.

 

Bryce Harper (42)

We all knew Harper had a season like this in him--it was only a matter of time and health. Playing time was not a problem for him this year, as he suited up for a career-high 153 games. It was surprising, however, to see him realize his power potential so soon--in his age 22 season--and to such an extreme (he nearly doubled his previous personal best of 22). My main concern with Harper is that he gets pitched around so much now--he had 25 homers on the Fourth of July and barely made it to 40--but like Barry Bonds he makes the most of the few strikes he does see. He'll definitely hit 40 again, just maybe not in 2016.

 

Nolan Arenado (42)

Far and away the most unlikely member of this year's 40 home run club is Mr. Arenado. When he debuted in 2013, he looked like a slick-fielding Andrelton Simmons type. With just 10 home runs and a .138 ISO that year, Arenado showed no hint of becoming a 40-homer slugger within two seasons. Last year his power improved considerably, as he slugged .500 with 54 extra base hits (18 homers) in just 432 official at-bats, but that projected to be 25-homer power. It was a complete surprise, then, when he tied Harper for the NL home run league and paced the majors in RBI (130) and total bases (354)--obliterating his previous career highs in the process. Those numbers are off the charts, even for a guy playing half his games at Coors Field. He's a big guy (6'2, 205) and only 24, so I wouldn't be surprised if he cranks 40 again.

 

Mike Trout (41)

As with Harper, it was inevitable that Trout would one day exceed 40 homers, especially after bulking up and trading some of his speed for power. After establishing a new career high with 36 big flies last year, he hit for even more power this year with 41 taters and an AL-best .590 slugging. I see several more years like this in his future.

 

Josh Donaldson (41)

How appropriate is it that Donaldson, Trout's top competition for AL MVP honors, finished with the same number of long balls as him? Trout's accomplishment is considerably more impressive after accounting for park effects, but one can't fault Donaldson for taking advantage of his new digs after losing lord knows how many home runs in Oakland's Coliseum the last few years. Donaldson had never reached 30 before, however, so 41 was somewhat unexpected. He's about to turn 30, but like fellow late bloomers Encarnacion and Joey Bats I think he'll keep this up into his next decade.

 

Donaldson and Bautista both eclipsed 40 homers (CTV News)

Jose Bautista (40)

Health has been the only thing stopping Bautista from doing this every year since 2010. Had he not gotten hurt in 2012 and 2013, this might have been his fifth 40-homer season in the past six years. As it were, he still has three, which is pretty good, although this is his first since 2011. Seeing as how he turned 35 a few weeks ago, it might very well be his last...

 

Albert Pujols (40)

...Then again, maybe not. I definitely thought we'd seen the last 40-homer effort from Pujols, given that he hasn't been the same since signing with the Angels due to injuries, age, and their brutal ballpark for hitters. Since leaving St. Louis he had yet to exceed 30 homers in a season, making his 40-homer year especially unlikely. What he gained in power, though, he lost in batting average, as he slumped to a career-worst .244 BA--73 points below his career average coming into the season. Looks like he might be the new right-handed Adam Dunn or Mark Teixeira.

 

Carlos Gonzalez (40)

We have two Angels, two Blue Jays, and now two Rockies to round out the list. Plagued by injuries over the last several years, CarGo had come nowhere near matching his high in home runs (34) set in 2010. This year he finally stayed healthy, playing a career-high 153 games. And rather than wear down, as one might expect, he enjoyed a prodigious second half, totaling 30 home runs after Independence Day.

 

Here are a few guys who might do it next year:

 

Yoenis Cespedes

In the right ballpark, Cespedes could absolutely do it. He was a monster last year despite splitting time between Comerica and Citi Field, so depending on where he signs this winter he could have a real shot at 40 next year.

 

Anthony Rizzo

Probably more of a Joey Votto clone, meaning that his selectivity might prevent him from realizing his power potential, but he's proven he can hit 30 in his sleep. All he needs is for the winds at Wrigley to nudge a few more doubles over the ivy and voila! 40 homers.

 

Paul Goldschmidt

At his age, in that ballpark, after topping 30 twice in the past three years, I'd be shocked if he doesn't do it. Then again, he won't get much to hit unless the Diamondbacks add some talent around him.

 

Kris Bryant

Could have a Harper-esque explosion next year.

 

Swihart Swats First Career HR

Swihart's solo shot was a titanic blast onto Lansdowne Street (Fox Sports)

One of the few Red Sox highlights from Boston's ugly 8-4 loss to the Twins yesterday was that Blake Swihart launched the first of what will hopefully be many home runs for the rookie catcher..

With two outs and nobody on, Swihart snapped a 22-game and 75 at-bat homerless streak to begin his career in the bottom of the third. Facing Twins starter Tommy Milone for the second time that day, Swihart laid off two close pitches to put himself up 2-0 in the count. The lefty's third pitch was a mistake, right over the heart of the plate, and Swihart crushed it. His first career blast was a moonshot, clearing the Monster seats and landing 406 feet from home plate. It was a no-doubter, an absolute bomb.

Unfortunately the bases were empty when he left the yard, so it only counted as one. Swihart's blast put the Sox up 3-0, but Boston was unable to hold the lead and ultimately dropped the series finale to Minnesota. It also made him the youngest Sox catcher to go deep since Rich Gedman, a two-time All-Star with Boston, belted his first dinger at the age of 21 during the strike-shortened 1981 season.

The long ball continued a recent resurgence at the plate for Swihart, who has now hit safely in eight of his last nine games. His batting line is still a lowly .218/.247/.295 on the season, but that marks a huge improvement over where it stood just a few weeks ago. The 23 year-old is barely a month into his major league career, after all, and in a perfect world would still be getting additional seasoning down in Pawtucket. But with Christian Vazquez out for the season and Ryan Hanigan sidelined until at least the All-Star Break, Swihart's been thrust into a starting role much sooner than expected. He's learning on the job and experiencing natural growing pains that come with that, which might be more magnified because catchers usually take longer to develop than other position players.

For all of Swihart's struggles at the dish, he's still a better hitter than Boston's other backstop, Sandy Leon. Leon is batting a mere .170 with two RBI on the season and has yet to notch an extra base hit in 57 plate appearances. If Swihart's overmatched, Leon's totally helpless, and it's not like Hanigan was Mike Piazza, either. Catcher has been an offensive black hole for the Sox all season, so it would certainly be nice if Swihart started hitting.

Then again, it would be really nice if every other Red Sock not named Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts started hitting too.

Santana Smoking Hot

Santana's swinging a hot bat after slumping through April and May (WahoosOnFirst)

The Cleveland Indians are deservedly off today after 11 straight road games to open the second half. And while I'm sure every Indian's thankful for the reprieve, especially with Cleveland having lost six of its last eight, something tells me Carlos Santana wouldn't mind another game tonight.

The former-catcher-turned-corner-infielder has been unconscious over the past week, hitting safely in seven straight games and launching six home runs during that span. His hitting streak, modest as it is, has also produced three doubles and six singles. That makes 15 base knocks in 27 at-bats, a .556 clip that's hiked his season average from a Mario Mendoza-esque .204 to a still-lowly-but-more-respectable .232.

But it's the home runs--five of 'em in the past three days and 14 since the start of June--that have people talking. Santana's slugging percentage rose from .380 after last Sunday to .456, just a tick below his 2014 high-water mark of .462 four games into the season. The 28 year-old Dominican kicked off his monster weekend with a pair of long balls off the young Yordano Ventura Friday night, a performance made even more impressive by the fact that Santana had played 14 innings--a game and a half--the day before.

But despite his big day at the plate, the Indians lost that game and the next one, too, blowing a five run lead on Saturday that Santana started with a solo shot off Jeremy Guthrie. He walked later in the inning and doubled his next time up, but Zach McAllister couldn't keep the Royals at bay and the Tribe fell, 7-5.

After losing the first three games of their series in Kansas City and falling behind early in the fourth, Cleveland salvaged the series and road trip with a 10-3 rout yesterday. The switch-hitting Santana led the way, smashing a two-run homer off Bruce Chen and another off Aaron Crow. The pair of bombs gave him eight on the month and upped his season total to 20, equaling his figure from last year but in 59 fewer games. They also raised his OPS to .827, 101 points higher than where it stood one week ago.

With Cleveland one game below .500 but only 3.5 out of the second wild card spot, Santana's hot streak couldn't have come at a better time for Terry Francona's scuffling club. They need him to keep producing big power numbers out of the cleanup spot if they're going to stay in the hunt for a second straight postseason berth. Thankfully for them he appears to have put his miserable start (.572 OPS through May 21st) behind him. After going through a recent rough stretch where he struck out 14 times in the seven games leading up to the All-Star Break, Santana seems to be seeing the ball more clearly and has had much more success making contact lately, with nine walks against four whiffs in his first 51 plate appearances of the second half.

Santana has always been a patient hitter who's at his very best when he waits for his pitch, putting himself in a position where he can lay back and drive the ball, taking advantage of the natural power that's cranked out 85 homers over the past three and a half seasons. This year's major league leader in walks has definitely been doing that a lot lately, and he'll try to stay hot tomorrow night against Seattle's Hisashi Iwakuma.

50 Homer Dreams

Balls are flying off the bats of Abreu (pictured), Cruz, and Encarnacion.
But can they keep it up? (Chicago CBS Local)

At the halfway point of the season and three players, all American Leaguers, are on pace to finish the season with approximately 50 home runs.

Considering that the past six seasons have produced only two 50-homer campaigns--Jose Bautista's out-of-nowhere 54 in 2010 and Chris Davis's equally surprising 53 last year--it's doubtful that even one of them will reach the 50 homer plateau. But as it stands, all three are on track to do so or at least come close, and that alone is reason enough to stop and take notice.

Atop the leaderboards are Nelson Cruz and Jose Abreu, both with 26 bombs under their belts after going deep yesterday to break a three-way tie with Edwin Encarnacion, who's still stuck on 25. All are on pace to establish career highs, if not reach the 50 home run benchmark that defines a truly historic offensive campaign (well, unless you're Brady Anderson).

Baseball has not had multiple hitters with 50 or more home runs in the same season since 2007, when Alex Rodriguez (54) and Prince Fielder (50) both cleared the half-century mark. To find the last time two American Leaguers did so, you'd have to go back more than a decade to 2002, when A-Rod ripped 57 and Jim Thome tagged 52.

Three hitters exceeding 50 home runs in the same season is exceptionally rare, so much so that it's only happened twice in baseball history (which, if I'm not mistaken, dates back to the stone age). Both times performance enhancing drugs were involved, of course. The most recent occurrence was in 2001, when an "enhanced" Barry Bonds belted 73 to break Mark McGwire's single season record and eclipse fellow National Leaguers Sammy Sosa (64) and Luis Gonzalez (57). The only other time a trio topped 50 was in another monumental season for long balls; 1998, when McGwire mashed 70, Sosa socked 66, and Ken Griffey Jr hammered 56 in the most exciting home run race since Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris duked it out for Babe Ruth's record back in the summer of 1961.

Abreu, Cruz, and Encarnacion are all great power hitters, but certainly not on the Hall of Fame levels of those aforementioned stars. Which begs the question: can any of these guys reach 50 home runs, let alone all three?

Cruz, the oldest of the bunch at 34, appears to be the long shot due to his age and the fact that he's never even hit 35 home runs in any season. He also must contend with the tough pitching staffs of the AL East, which boasts dominant hurlers such as Masahiro Tanaka, Jon Lester, and David Price, among others. Lastly, he's historically struggled in August, in which he has the fewest home runs and second-lowest OPS of any month, meaning he's a good bet to tail off in the second half.

That said, Cruz does a great job of getting the ball in the air with more fly balls than ground balls to date, an approach well-suited to a homer-friendly park like Camden Yards, where Cruz plays half his games. Additionally his 24.3 percent HR/FB rate, a career high, is pretty reasonable considering that he's been over 21 percent three times before, including last year. So while I wouldn't bet on Cruz, I wouldn't count him out just yet, either.

For Encarnacion, this year could be shaping up to be a repeat of last year, when he also went yard 25 times in the first half, only to fade down the stretch and end the season at 36. Still, he does have more home runs than anyone since the start of the 2012 season, and he's also two and a half years younger than Cruz, who also hails from the Dominican Republic. The notoriously streaky first baseman will need to avoid another month like his April (two taters, .413 SLG) or replicate something approximating his monster month of May (18 dingers, .763 SLG). Like Cruz, Encarnacion also does a great job of lifting fly balls, with nearly half of his batted balls qualifying as such. His HR/FB, just south of 20 percent, is a career high but still has room to grow, especially during the summer months when the ball tends to fly out of ballparks.

As for Abreu, no one really knows what he's capable of. It is his first season, after all, which means it's probably only a matter of time before he endures a prolonged slump, as his 73/18 K/BB ratio seems to suggest. There's also no way he'll be able to sustain his current HR/FB rate, which is currently pushing up against 36 percent. He'll need to start hitting more fly balls to balance out his inevitable regression in that department, for his fly ball rate is currently lower than his HR/FB rate, which just screams fluke.

Then again, the Cuban rookie needed just 71 games to bash his 26 home runs, so with a full slate of games in the second half it's not unreasonable to think he'll at least match that number, if not exceed it. His future is the hardest to predict, but he's done nothing except set the world on fire since his debut back in April. it doesn't hurt that he calls the homer-friendly U.S. Cellular Field home. He's also just 27, in the heart of his prime and at the peak of his powers, so who's to say he can't hit 50? For now, at least, McGwire's rookie record of 49 four-baggers appears to be in jeopardy, as does Albert Belle's franchise record of the same number.

If I had to bet on one to cross the 50-homer threshold, I'd pick Abreu simply because his raw power is so ridiculous. Cruz and Encarnacion are playing at their full potential, but there's a possibility, however slight, that Abreu hasn't reached his yet and could get even better with experience, a frightening proposition for any person who throws a baseball for a living. The sky's the limit for him, assuming he can avoid another trip to the Disabled List this year. Hopefully he's one and done.

Speaking of the DL, Cruz is always a health-risk, and frankly I wouldn't be surprised if he fell short of 40 even without getting hurt. Encarnacion's not a model of durability either: like Cruz, he has only one with season with more than 150 games played. I'm also not convinced he has 25 more homers in him this year, especially given his propensity for withering cold spells, but fully ackowledge that a great month of July could put him close to 40 with a third of the season left to play.

But regardless of where they end up, all three have put together marvelous first halves worthy of All-Star recognition. They're definitely worth keeping an eye on as the summer progresses, because if all three maintain their current paces they'll become the first trio of American Leaguers to hit 50 home runs in the same season. That would be pretty cool.

Papi's Prodigious Power

Ortiz has outhomered all but two players in Red Sox history

After his recent home run barrage in Minnesota, David Ortiz has gone deep more times than anyone in the history of the Boston Red Sox, save Ted Williams and Carl Yastrzemski (who need no introduction). Ortiz already topped 23 taters in all 11 of his seasons with Boston prior to this one, averaging 34 per season, and with 11 already he's well on his way to doing it again in 2014.

Papi's power has been a mainstay in the heart of Boston's order for more than a decade. The Dominican DH has been soaring up the team's leaderboards since 2003, when he debuted with the Sox by slamming 31 home runs, posting a .961 OPS and finishing fifth in the MVP voting. It was the beginning of a remarkable run for Ortiz, who bashed 41 round-trippers the following year, 47 more the year after that and peaked at 54 in 2006--shattering Jimmie Foxx's single season franchise record of 50 which had stood since 1938. 

Even as Ortiz's home run production tailed off a bit after 2006 (he hasn't exceeded 35 since), Big Papi kept adding to his totals and climbed to fifth place midway through the 2010 season--his sixth with at least 30 dingers. He remained there until this year, when he leapfrogged Dwight Evans and Jim Rice in rapid succession. Ortiz needed much fewer at-bats than either of the long-time Sox sluggers; "Dewey" Evans came to the plate more than 10,000 times in his 19 seasons with the team, while Rice played his entire 16-year career in Boston and amassed over 9,000 plate appearances. Ortiz, now in his 12th season with the Sox, has yet to reach even 7,000 plate appearances. His 14.9 AB/HR ratio is fourth-best all-time among Sox sluggers, bested only by former teammate Manny Ramirez, Foxx, and Williams, and since the start of the 2003 season he has more long balls than everyone in baseball except for two: Albert Pujols and Adam Dunn.

After remaining in fifth place for nearly four years, the three-time World Series champion won't be escaping third place anytime soon. He still needs almost 70 bombs to reach Yastrzemski, who went yard 452 times in his 23 seasons. At 521, Williams is out of reach, unless by some miracle Ortiz remains a premier power hitter into his mid-forties. Assuming Papi finishes this season with around 400 dingers (perhaps a bit conservative seeing as how he's on pace to club 42 this year), he'd still need two more very good seasons to catch Yaz. Considering his age--38 and a half--that seems like a tall task, but Ortiz has showed no signs of slowing down and just might be able to pull it off. He's under contract for next year, and the Red Sox will surely bring him back as long as he continues to hit. 

So until an injury pops up or Ortiz starts to decline, it remains a very real possibility that the nine-time All-Star will finish his Red Sox career with more circuit drives than anyone besides Teddy Ballgame. And, if Papi eclipses Yaz or falls just short, he'll reach the 500 home run plateau and seriously bolster his Hall of Fame chances (more on that to come). Regardless of where he ends up, he'll go down as one of the best sluggers the Sox have ever had.

So even if he never hits another home run, his place in Red Sox history, as well as the organization's Hall of Fame, is secure. 

Abreu's Awesome Start

Abreu is tearing it up in his American debut (ESPN SweetSpot Blog)

When Cuban sensation Jose Abreu signed a six-year, $68 million deal with the Chicago White Sox last winter, we knew he was going to be good. I'm just don't think anyone expected him to be this good. 

After capping last night's three-hit, six-RBI performance with a walk-off grand slam that lifted the Chicago to a 9-6 win over the Tampa Bay Rays, Abreu became the first rookie in major league history to hit nine home runs before the end of April. The 27-year old first baseman now holds a tie of the major leagues in home runs (with a resurgent Albert Pujols), RBI (with Giancarlo Stanton and Chris Colabello), total bases (Pujols again), and extra base hits (with Josh Donaldson). He's also slugging .632, the fourth-highest mark in baseball behind Troy Tulowitzki, Charlie Blackmon, and Pujols.

I know I'm not breaking any new ground here, but it sure looks like he's the real deal, folks. Baseball's next big thing has arrived.

Abreu, who already has three multi-homer games on the young season, has come out swinging for the fences. He's already struck out 25 times in 24 games, and when he does make contact 40 percent of the time he hits it in the air. Nearly a third of his fly balls have left the yard, an unsustainable pace, but with the homer-friendly Cell as his home park he might be able to keep it up for a little longer.

With five home runs and 13 RBI in his past six games, Abreu can't get much hotter. His sizzling start is a big reason why the White Sox are in second place in the AL Central entering play today, and why they've scored the most runs in baseball thus far. It goes without saying that if Abreu can continue to power Chicago's offense, he'll be a lock for AL Rookie of the Year and serious MVP consideration.

But for now, let's see if he can continue adding to his impressive spring numbers. His 27 RBI are tied with Pujols for the most by a rookie in April. So if you've got nothing better to do on a Saturday night, you might as well check-in on Abreu's at-bats. He might just make history.

Can Anyone Catch Bonds?

Bonds's home run record will likely stand for a long time (NPR)

All this talk about Hank Aaron and Barry Bonds last week got me thinking: is there anyone in baseball right now who might finish his career as the all-time home run king? I took a look at the players I feel have the best chances, with their career home run totals in parentheses (not including today's games).

Alex Rodriguez (654)
A-Rod is closest, needing 108 round-trippers to tie Bonds, but that doesn't seem likely to happen for a variety of reasons. First, it's unclear whether Rodriguez will ever play again after missing the entire 2014 season because of his PED suspension. He turns 39 over the summer, and age combined with failing health (88 games per season over the past three) will make it difficult to return to his previous level of his excellence. Plus, nobody has ever hit 108 home runs after turning 39, though Bonds and a few others (Darrell Evans, Carlton Fisk) came close.

Albert Pujols (494)
Pujols is 34 but should have his 500th home run by the end of next month (he's currently sitting on 494, having just passed Fred McGriff and Lou Gehrig). In a vacuum Pujols appears to be in a good spot, since only Rodriguez, Jimmie Foxx and Sammy Sosa hit more home runs through age 33. However, it's highly unlikely that he'll hit the 268 home runs (as many as Brooks Robinson and Joe Morgan had in their entire careers) needed to catch Bonds seeing as how his home run totals have gone down every year since 2009. Bonds and Aaron are the only players that have done what Pujols needs to do, but whereas Aaron got a late kick from Atlanta's launching pad stadium and Bonds, um, got his late kick from something else, Pujols is stuck in a pitcher's park that's only going to take home runs away from him.

Miguel Cabrera (366)
Cabrera's been so good for so long (a decade of sustained excellence) that it's surprising how far he still has to go to catch Bonds. Off the top of my head, I would've guessed that Cabrera was past 400 already, but in reality he still may not be at 400 by the end of this season (he has 366 currently). That means he still needs to hit almost 400 home runs which, given his age (31 on Friday) is going to be virtually impossible. After turning 31, only Bonds and Babe Ruth have hit the number of home runs that Cabrera needs to hit to catch Bonds. Put another way, he needs to hit as many home runs as Joe Carter did in his whole career, which probably isn't going to happen.

Prince Fielder (285)
Cabrera's former teammate has 285 taters through his age 29 season, but that still leaves him almost 500 short of Bonds. With a body type that doesn't age well, Fielder won't have the longevity to approach 700 even if he becomes a full-time DH.

Jay Bruce (166)
Bruce, who just turned 27, had more home runs through his age 26 season than Babe Ruth, Reggie Jackson, Mark McGwire, Manny Ramirez, Lou Gehrig, Barry Bonds, and Frank Thomas. He's helped by the fact that he broke in at 21 and showed power immediately, blasting 21 home runs that year (2008). His home run totals increased each year through 2012, peaking at 34 before dropping slightly to 30 in 2013. It also helps that he plays in a homer-friendly park and has been durable. Bruce is on track for 500-600 home runs, but 700 is going to be a challenge unless he can string together a few 40-50 homer seasons, which may be tough to do given how streaky and strikeout prone he is.

Giancarlo Stanton (121)
Just 24 and with 121 big flies under his belt, Stanton seems to have a good shot. He had the tenth-most home runs through age 23, but he would rank a lot higher on that list if he hadn't missed an average of 40 games per season in his first four years. In 2012, for instance, he slammed 37 home runs in just 123 games, which works out to be a 48-homer pace when projected out over 162 games. Stanton's light-tower power is well-documented and makes him a great candidate to break the record, but for a serious run at Bonds he has to stay healthier. It also wouldn't hurt if he could away from Miami's mammoth outfield dimensions.

Mike Trout (65)
Through age 21, only Mel Ott, Tony Conigliaro, Eddie Mathews, Frank Robinson, and Alex Rodriguez went deep more often than Trout. Including Conigliaro, whose career was tragically cut short by Jack Hamilton's beanball, the group's average home run total is 485.6. Ott and Mathews finished with near identical career totals (511 and 512, respectively) while Robinson reached 586 and Rodriguez is at 654 (and possibly still counting). That puts Trout in some pretty impressive company. Playing half his games in Anaheim hurts, but perhaps he will land a massive contract somewhere more hitter-friendly when his extension runs out.

Bryce Harper (43)
Harper hit 22 bombs as a 19 year-old and 20 more as a 20 year-old. Only Ott and Congiliaro homered more through the same age. Like Stanton, Harper has demonstrated massive power that should only improve as he reaches his prime years, but also like Stanton he must do a better job of staying healthy if he wants the all-time home run record.