Sox Should've Waited to Extend Ortiz

Ortiz is a happy camper, but now he needs to produce (ESPN)

A few short months after carrying the Red Sox to their third World Series championship in the last ten years (and he literally carried them), David Ortiz had already grown unhappy. As usual, he was displeased with his contract, so much so that he threatened to leave Boston if he didn't get what he wanted.

It was an empty threat, of course, but the Red Sox responded to their frustrated slugger by giving him what he got what he wanted: another year tacked onto his contract, which was set to expire at the end of this season. The extension will net him an additional $16 million in 2015, Ortiz's age-39 season.

I guess that means Ortiz can shut up about his contract status and let his bat do the talking, at least until next winter.

Last month I wrote in my column for The Tufts Daily that the Red Sox should hold off on re-signing Ortiz, and I still stand by that argument. Extending a 38 year-old is incredibly risky, especially when all of said 38 year-old's value is tied up in his bat. Yes, Ortiz has been one of the best hitters in baseball over the past three years, but he's going to stop hitting at some point, probably sooner rather than later. The Red Sox shouldn't have been in any rush to re-sign their aging star, and I don't see why they didn't hold off to confirm that he can still mash big league pitching before committing another year and millions of dollars to him.

What Boston should have done was wait until the All-Star Break and, if Ortiz remained healthy and productive, hand him his advance for the 2015 season. That way they would have been able to make a fair assessment about the state of his skills and health without letting him reach free agency and possibly a) command more money or b) go someplace else.

Ortiz is a man who equates dollars with respect, but the Red Sox have paid him more than $110 million in player salaries throughout his time in Boston (with another $30 million on the way): isn't that enough? And, don't forget, they gave him a chance in 2003 after the Twins released him. The Red Sox don't owe him a thing. They were already paying him to hit baseballs this year, so if anything it's Ortiz who should be worried about holding up his end of the bargain.

I understand the justification for this deal extends beyond the baseball field. If there's anyone who deserves a year of contract security, it's Ortiz. But sentimental reasons aside, this deal just doesn't make a whole lot of baseball sense. Thankfully Boston's payroll is large enough that it can absorb $16 million in deadweight if Papi turns into a pumpkin.

Of course, if Ortiz has another great year and the Red Sox make the playoffs I'll feel differently about this move a year from now. But right now, I'm not a fan.

14 Players to Avoid in 2014

As great as Puig was last year, I'm pessimistic about his 2014 outlook (Fox)

Last week I identified 14 players to shoot for in fantasy baseball drafts, so today I'll discuss 14 that I'm almost guaranteed to pass over. Once again I've included each player's average draft position in parentheses (courtesy of ESPN).

Jacoby Ellsbury (11.7)
I wouldn't spend my first round pick on Ellsbury, who has never exceeded nine home runs or 60 RBI outside of his fluke 2011. He'll score lots of runs, steal tons of bases and bat close to .300 when healthy, but his lack of power prevents him from meriting first round status in my opinion.

Yasiel Puig (29.1)
Several warning signs indicate Puig is likely to fall victim to the dreaded sophomore slump that has plagued Jason Heyward, Eric Hosmer, Austin Jackson and Will Middlebrooks in recent seasons. For one, his .383 average on balls in play last year is unlikely to be repeated. He also exhibited a hyper-aggressive approach at the plate that resulted in him striking out almost three times for every walk. And to top it all off, the 2013 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up had a miserable spring training, batting .122/.136/.195 without a home run in 44 plate appearances. I predict similar struggles in his near future.

Ian Kinsler (36.8)
Kinsler's production has dropped off precipitously over the past two seasons, falling from 32 home runs and 30 steals in 2011 to just 13 and 15, respectively, in 2013. The combination of age (he turns 32 this year), diminishing skills and leaving Texas (where his OPS was almost 200 points higher than it was everywhere else) will likely accelerate his decline and prevent him from rebounding.

Eric Hosmer (52.7)
Hosmer's going much too high for a first baseman who's averaged 17 home runs and 72 runs/RBI per year. He doesn't do enough in batting average (.277 career) or steals (13 per season) to justify getting drafted alongside Adrian Gonzalez.

Jean Segura (72.6)
Segura fell apart after a sizzling start last year, batting a lowly .241 with just one home run and 13 RBI in the second half. He seems unlikely to replicate his power numbers given that he socked only 26 home runs in his 399 minor league games.

Aramis Ramirez (87.2)
Still a productive hitter but his age (36 in June) and injury history (has topped 150 games once in the past ten seasons) are scaring me off.

Josh Hamilton (95.7)
Hamilton has been terrible for a year and a half now, and that's not changing anytime soon so long as he continues to hack away. It also doesn't help that he plays half his games in a pitcher's park, turns 33 two months from now and is prone to injury. Let him be someone else's headache.

Brett Lawrie (123.6)
Lawrie's accrued over 1,000 big league at-bats and has been a major disappointment thus far. His numbers have gotten worse, not better. It looks like the Ryan Braun comparisons made during his rookie season were premature.

Billy Hamilton (125.8)
We know Hamilton can run like the wind, but can he hit? His .280/.350/.378 minor league batting line isn't very promising, so he probably isn't going to be the next Rickey Henderson.

Jonathan Papelbon (138.8)
Age (33) and diminishing velocity mean Papelbon no longer resides among the game's elite closers. His WHIP has risen in each of the past two years. In 2013 alone, his ERA jumped up nearly half a run from his 2012 mark and his K/9 dropped by 3.5 batters per nine.

R.A. Dickey (142.7)
The 2012 NL Cy Young winner suffered major regression in his first season with the Blue Jays as he adjusted to baseball's toughest division and a home park that favors sluggers. Now 39, he figures to be not much better than a league average pitcher from here on out.

Curtis Granderson (143.9)
I'm expecting Granderson to be a huge bust Jason Bay-style. It's bad enough that he's a 33 year-old all-or-nothing slugger, which means he's susceptible to falling off a cliff at any moment. Throw in last year's injury problems and the move from Yankee Stadium to Citi Field, and I'll be looking elsewhere in the middle rounds.

Carl Crawford (169.0)
No reason Crawford should be ranked this high. He's had trouble staying healthy lately and his numbers have suffered. Over the past three years, he's averaged just 50 runs, seven home runs, 35 RBI, 13 steals and a .269 batting average. Crawford was great once, but he's not anymore.

Dan Haren (188.8)
I like his rebound chances as much as anyone, but one has to acknowledge that his 4.50 ERA over the past two seasons hasn't been very good. Late picks should be used for guys with upside, and there's not much upside for a 33 year-old former workhorse who's been well below average in each of the last two years.

Kershaw King of Opening Day

Kershaw was masterful in his first start of the 2014 season (NESN)

Clayton Kershaw asserted his dominance throughout yesterday's season opener in Australia. Kershaw, the reigning NL Cy Young winner and now the most expensive pitcher in baseball history, stymied the Arizona Diamondbacks with six and two-thirds innings of one-run. The lefty was in top form, surrendering just five hits--only one of which went for extra bases (a Paul Goldschmidt double)--and one walk while fanning seven. It didn't hurt that LA put three runs on the board for him relatively early, thanks to Andre Ethier's RBI groundout and Scott Van Slyke's two-run bomb (both of which scored Adrian Gonzalez).

Wade Miley, while repsectable in his own right (three runs and eight K's in five innings), was no match for baseball's top hurler. Arizona's bullpen kept Los Angeles at bay over the final four frames, but the D-Backs were unable to mount a comeback. Chris Perez, new setup man Brian Wilson and killer closer Kenley Jensen allowed no hits in relief of Kershaw, thereby suffocating any hopes for an Arizona rally.

The home team's lone run came in the bottom of the sixth, when Goldschmidt led off with a double and advanced to third on a wild pitch during Martin Prado's at-bat. Mark Trumbo, in his Diamondbacks debut, plated Goldschmidt by grounding out to second baseman Justin Turner.

But it was too little, too late for Arizona--held hitless in the final three innings. They'll look to get the bats going tonight against Hyun-jin Ryu, who's making the first start of his sophomore season. The D-Backs hope to get their first win of 2014 behind Trevor Cahill, who needs to put a rough spring training behind him.

14 Fantasy Baseball Targets for 2014

Bumgarner's already an ace but could get even better (FoxSports)

It's March and you know what that means: fantasy baseball season has arrived. Here are 14 players I have my eye on in this year's drafts, mainly because I view them as good value picks. In parentheses I included each player's average draft position from ESPN's live drafts so far and will refer to each in the context of ESPN's standard ten-team, 5x5 leagues. Also thanks to Matthew Berry's always-terrific (and thought-provoking) 100 facts column for some of the information found below.

Joey Votto (19.7)
I see Votto-matic as closer to a first round pick, maybe even top-ten worthy. He's guaranteed to bat .300 (the one year he didn't, he hit .297), score a ton of runs, and hit 25-30 home runs. Last year's 73 RBI were a fluke--he's averaged close to 100 per 162 games in his career. The 2010 NL MVP is one of the best pure hitters out there and is worth reaching for over Prince Fielder, Adam Jones, and the injury-prone Troy Tulowitzki.

Giancarlo Stanton (33.6)
2013 was a rough year for the Marlins slugger, who missed 46 games and set career lows in batting average and slugging percentage. On the bright side he still socked 24 home runs and showed signs of maturity by setting personal bests in walks (74) and OBP (.365). Now 24 and with a better supporting cast, Stanton should reclaim his status as one of the game's premier power hitters.

Madison Bumgarner (48.9)
I'm a big Bumgarner guy. He's exceeded 200 innings and 190 strikeouts in each of the last three years while improving his WHIP each season. During that span, Cliff Lee and Clayton Kershaw are the only other pitchers with at least 191 strikeouts and an ERA under 3.38 each year. The new ace of San Francisco's staff is only 24 and calls AT&T Park home. What's not to love?

Zack Greinke (53.5)
The Dodgers are going to be amazing this year, which puts Greinke in line to set a new career high in wins. He also gets a big boost by pitching in Dodger Stadium, where he had a 2.11 ERA and 5.25 K/BB ratio last year. If he keeps pitching as well as he did during the second half of 2013 (1.85 ERA, 0.98 WHIP) then he's going to give Kershaw a run for his money in the NL Cy Young race.

Matt Holliday (70.3)
Holliday's a virtual lock to give you a .300 batting average, 20-25 home runs and close to 100 runs/RBI. He's 34 but has showed no signs of slowing down and bats in the middle of a loaded lineup. Draft him with confidence.

Matt Kemp (71.1)
Kemp is absolutely worth taking a chance on this late in the draft. He's still just 29 and was an elite player as recently as 2012. Chalk his poor 2013 up to injuries and expect a big bounce back from the 2011 NL MVP runner-up.

Billy Butler (122.7)
Here's a blind player comparison with season averages for the past two years:
Player A: 72 runs, 20 home runs, 104 RBI, .296 batting average, 2 steals
Player B: 67 runs, 22 home runs, 95 RBI, .302 batting average, 1 steal
Player A is Adrian Gonzalez. Player B is Billy Butler. Gonzalez is going in the low 50s, roughly 70 picks ahead of Butler. And Butler is four years younger.

Hisashi Iwakuma (130.9)
Here's another blind comparison, this time with totals for the past two years:
Player A: 345 innings, 2.84 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 286 K
Player B: 343 innings, 3.02 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 259 K
Player A is Hisashi Iwakuma. Player B is Jered Weaver. Weaver's going almost 40 picks ahead of Iwakuma.

Jose Abreu (131.5)
High risk, high-reward pick here. I guess I'm excited that he'll get to play half his games in the homer-friendly U.S. Cellular Field, which should play to his strengths. I'm feeling something close to 30 home runs for him this year.

Hiroki Kuroda (167.2)
Put aside his rough second half and admire his brilliantly consistent track record. He's one of just three pitchers--Kershaw and Gio Gonzalez are the others--to start at least 30 games and have an ERA below 3.40 in each of the past four seasons. In addition, the 2014 Yankees project to be more potent than the 2013 edition now that they have Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Carlos Beltran, plus full or healthy seasons from Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter and Alfonso Soriano. Translation: Kuroda will get better run support and win more games. Kuroda's much safer (and better) than most of the players getting drafted around him, guys like Carl Crawford, Torii Hunter, Wilson Ramos, Will Middlebrooks, and Ernesto Frieri.

Austin Jackson (180.8)
Jackson's a better real-life player than fantasy player, but he's still going way too low. Over the past four years, only Miguel Cabrera has scored more runs than he has. A-Jax provides decent power with 15-20 home run potential and has shown the ability to hit .300. While it's alarming that his stolen base totals have gone down every year since his rookie season, new manager Brad Ausmus wants the Tigers to be more aggressive on the basepaths than they were under Jim Leyland so look for Jackson to get the green light more often. And don't forget: 2014 is Jackson's age-27 season.

Danny Salazar (183.9)
Jonah Keri over at Grantland has a huge man-crush on the 24 year-old Dominican, and it's not hard to see why. Salazar was sensational in his ten start cameo last year and seems poised to break out. For the record, I like him a whole lot better than Michael Wacha, who's going five rounds earlier largely because of his postseason success.

Johnny Cueto (185.9)
Since Opening Day 2011 Cueto has the third-lowest ERA in baseball behind only Kershaw and Kris Medlen. Health has been an issue for him at times, limiting him to 24 starts in 2011 and just 11 last year, but they haven't hampered his effectiveness. He's still in the heart of his prime at 28 and pitches for a good team, so wins shouldn't be hard to come by.

A.J. Burnett (199.5)
Burnett's been one of baseball's better (and more underrated) pitchers since returning to the National League. In his two seasons with Pittsburgh he compiled a 3.41 ERA and 3.02 K/BB ratio while racking up 389 strikeouts in 393.1 innings, numbers comparable to those of Homer Bailey, Matt Cain, Wade Miley and Mat Latos, all of whom are long gone by the time Burnett's name comes off the board.

Honorable Mentions: Bryce Harper, Justin Verlander, Mark Trumbo, Jedd Gyorko, Jason Heyward, and B.J. Upton

One last word to the wise: if you find yourself needing speed late in the draft, go for Brett Gardner and/or Michael Bourn. Both have been elite basestealers in the past and should outdo their disappointing 2013 stolen base production.

2014 MLB Award Predictions

Awards are always tough to predict in March, but here are my preseason favorites:

AL MVP: Mike Trout
This the year for Trout, who in his third full season will finally get the MVP trophy he deserves. He'll benefit from Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols having bounce back years.

Also considered: Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder

AL Cy Young: Yu Darvish
Darvish was a much more polished pitcher in his second season than he was in his first, so if he can improve just a hair more (mainly by gaining better command of his fastball) then 300 strikeouts, 20 wins and a Cy Young could all be within his reach.

Also considered: Felix Hernandez, David Price

AL Rookie of the Year: Xander Bogaerts
If last October was any indication, Bogaerts is ready to become a star.

Also considered: Jose Abreu

AL Comeback Player of the Year: Albert Pujols
Now that Pujols is healthy, I fully expect Prince Albert to reverse the trend that has seen his OPS decline every year since 2008.

Also considered: Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira,

NL MVP: Hanley Ramirez
I was between HanRam and Yasiel Puig, but since Puig's probably going to suffer a sophomore slump I went with Ramirez, who was otherworldly last year and is still just 30. As long as he's healthy he's as good a bet as any.

Also considered: Puig, Ryan Braun, Andrew McCutchen

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
Kershaw has inherited the title of best pitcher in baseball from Justin Verlander and seems likely to hold onto it for the next half-decade.

Also considered: Zack Greinke, Jose Fernandez, Stephen Strasburg

NL Rookie of the Year: Billy Hamilton
Hamilton has the potential to become the first player in a quarter century to steal 80 bases in a single season. With his game-changing speed I don't think 100 is out of the question, provided he can get on base, of course.

Also considered: Oscar Taveras, Travis d'Arnaud

NL Comeback Player of the Year: Matt Kemp
29 and only one year removed from being an All-Star caliber player, Kemp should rebound following a dismal and injury-ravaged 2013.

Also considered: Chris Young, Curtis Granderson, Miguel Montero, Dan Haren, Dan Uggla