Giambi Got Screwed

Love him or hate him, Giambi's been ruthlessly victimized by defensive shifts

The widespread implementation of defensive shifts in recent years has taken God knows how many hits away from lefty pull hitters such as David Ortiz, Mark Teixeira, Adam Dunn, Ryan Howard, and Jason Giambi. How frustrating is it to watch hitters smash ground balls and line drives into short right field, only to see a re-arranged defender waiting there to gobble it up and throw them out by 20 feet at first base. Once reserved for Ted Williams and few others, shifts nowadays pose an obstacle for many players with ground ball pull tendencies, even those who bat from the right side like Edwin Encarnacion.

Giambi, now a 43 year-old role player for the Cleveland Indians, estimates he's lost 200 hits to shifts over the course of his 20 year career, which is a huge deal. Imagine if all those hits went through for base knocks; what would Giambi's numbers look like then?

If one gives him credit for 200 additional hits, his career batting average soars from .277 to .304. People today don't think of Giambi as a .300 hitter because he's batted over .260 only once since 2003, but he hit as high as .342 in 2000 and owned a .309 career average through the 2002 season. Surely we'd have a much different impression of him if he had a higher career batting average than Willie Mays and just a smidge below Hank Aaron's. Similarly, his OBP would jump from .399 to .422, which would rank 17th all-time and second only to Barry Bonds for players that debuted after Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier.

Even if we assume all those hits would have been singles (and some surely would have been some doubles), giving Giambi 200 extra total bases raises his career slugging percentage from .517 to .545, which would rank just outside the top-30. His career OPS would be at least 50 points higher than it is now, and at .966 would rank as the 15th highest mark of all-time. If Giambi's estimates are correct, he would be one of the select few players to exceed a .300 batting average, .400 on-base percentage and .500 slugging percentage for his career.

Steroids aside, Giambi didn't dominate long enough to merit serious Hall of Fame consideration. Without the shift, however, he'd be a slam dunk for Cooperstown with career slash stats in the same neighborhood as Manny Ramirez, Frank Thomas, and Mickey Mantle. So that's something to think about the next time your favorite player rips a rocket into the hole and heads back to the dugout with nothing to show for it. Shifts aren't just costing him hits: they could be costing him a Hall of Fame plaque as well.

Simmons Latest Brave to be Rewarded

Simmons was worth almost seven bWAR last year largely because of his defense

At the rate they're going, the Atlanta Braves will have their entire team signed through the end of the decade by Opening Day.

Andrelton Simmons is the latest Braves to be rewarded with a payday, following in the footsteps of Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward, Craig Kimbrel, and Julio Teheran. Simmons received a seven-year, $58 million extension that covers all his arbitration seasons and first two free agent seasons. The deal runs through his age 30 season, which means the Braves won't have to pay for much, if any, of his decline phase.

Assuming Simmons stays healthy, Atlanta's going to get tons of value out of this deal. His masterful glovework at shortstop makes him the most valuable defender in the game, so much so that he had one of the best defensive seasons in recorded history last year. And he's no slouch with the bat either, having hit 17 home runs last year and posting an .807 OPS from July 14th onward. Just 24, he figures to get better with age as he enters his prime years.

I like this deal much better than the one Texas gave to Elvis Andrus last year at the same age. Andrus was more established with four full seasons and two All-Star appearances under his belt, but the difference between the two skills-wise isn't enough to justify Andrus getting an extra year and twice as much money.

In fact, I don't think it's much of a stretch to say that Simmons will have the better career. Just last year alone, Simmons hit almost as many home runs as Andrus has hit in his entire career. Simmons also did so while striking out nearly half as often as Andrus does and while working a similar number of walks. Andrus is a better baserunner and plays good defense, but Simmons is so good defensively that he makes up whatever advantages Andrus has and then some.

So while it's hard to imagine Simmons getting such a deal in less enlightened times (he did hit only .248/.296/.396 last year, after all), it stands to reason that Simmons could and should get better. He's going to earn every cent of that money.