Fielder Finished

Fielder is done, and in all likelihood so are the Rangers (NBCDFW)

Prince Fielder will go under the knife on Tuesday to repair a herniated disk in his back, an operation that requires 3-4 months of recovery time and thus ends his first season with the Texas Rangers. For the first time since 2005--his rookie season--the previously durable Fielder will finish a year with fewer than 157 games played.

The Rangers, you might recall, swapped Ian Kinsler for Fielder last fall in an effort to beef up their lineup. Fielder's elite power, on-base and run producing skills were supposed to give Texas a major threat along with Shin-Soo Choo Adrian Beltre in the heart of their order.

Instead, Fielder was a failure, batting just .247/.360/.360--numbers that were actually on the rise after his abysmal April. Cecil Fielder's son, who just celebrated his 30th birthday two weeks ago, showed no signs of resurrecting his vanishing power, managing only three home runs and 16 RBI in 42 games. Moving to Texas, and one of the best hitter's parks in baseball, was supposed to reverse his declining numbers.

Didn't happen. While all three of his home runs came at home, he batted a paltry .187/.333/.347 in 22 games there (as opposed to .307/.388/.373 on the road). Arlington is a hitter's paradise, but Fielder was unable to take advantage of it in his brief 2014 campaign (I have to imagine he'll hit better there next year). Meanwhile, Kinsler has unexpectedly flourished away from Arlington, putting up some of the best numbers of his career and helping the Tigers maintain their grip on the AL Central.

Fielder's injury has to be incredibly frustrating for the Rangers. Not just because they paid him $24 million for replacement level production (-0.3 bWAR), but also because they've been crippled by injuries. Geovany Soto, Jurickson Profar, Matt Harrison, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland, Martin Perez, Joe Saunders, Tanner Scheppers, and now Fielder, among others, are all on the Disabled List or done for the season (and don't forget that Beltre and Yu Darvish already missed time earlier this year). Decimated doesn't even begin to describe the Rangers' injury woes this season, and it's a miracle that Texas is only one game below .500 entering play today. Fielder's injury doesn't just leave a gaping hole in the middle of Ron Washington's order; it effectively dashes whatever hopes the fourth-place Rangers had of clawing back in the playoff race.

They were counting on Fielder to get hot and pick up the offense, which ranks second-to-last in the American League in home runs. They were waiting for his power stroke return as the weather heated up. They were hoping he would start resembling Prince Fielder, you know, the beastly slugger who made five All-Star teams and smacked 283 homers over the past eight seasons.

Unfortunately for the Rangers, they'll have to keep waiting.

Projecting Fielder, Kinsler

Can Kinsler and Fielder reverse two straight years of decline?

Since Prince Fielder and Ian Kinsler were swapped on Wednesday, I've been thinking a lot about how they're going to fare in their new homes. That's what I do for fun when baseball season is months away and top fantasy commodities get traded for each other.

I have to admit, it's salivating to imagine what a slugger like Fielder will be able to do with 81 home games in Texas. My first thoughts were that a return to his 35-40 homer, 120 RBI glory days might be in order. Just like Adrian Beltre left skid marks (and a big contract) behind in Seattle, Fielder was going to ditch Detroit and re-find his power stroke in Arlington's hitter heaven.  He's going to be a beast again!

That's not outside the realm of possibility but, after digging through the numbers, I no longer think it's going to be the case. Fielder's power numbers dropped sharply in the first two seasons of his giant contract, seasons in which he was 27 and 28 when the season began. It's easy to blame  Comerica Park's spacious dimensions for the decline, but in each of his two seasons with the Tigers he hit only 12 home runs on the road. Plus he's probably not going to get as much of an edge (power-wise, that is) from trading home parks as one might expect now that he has so many more road games in the offense-suppressing stadiums of the AL West.

Then again, he's still only 29. I like his chances of a bounce-back to at least his 2012 levels with the potential to reach the heights from his Milwaukee days. I'd be perfectly fine with reaching a bit for him, but first base is so deep that I won't get bent out of shape if someone else is willing to reach a little bit farther.

Here's what I think Fielder's numbers will look like next year (very Ryan Howard-esque):

Fielder's 2014: 92 runs, 33 home runs, 112 RBI, 1 steal, .295/.383/.537

Kinsler's a bit tougher to project. He's going to be 32 next season, and his numbers have dropped off dramatically since his monster 2011. His runs, walks, homers, stolen bases, slugging percentage, and ISO are all trending downward. He pops up an awful lot and doesn't run as well as he used to. To make matters worse, he owed much of his success to the Rangers home park, where he was a career .304/.387/.511 hitter. Everywhere else, though, he's been subpar, as his .242/.312/.399 shows. Going to a much softer division with friendlier road parks should help, but whatever boost he sees there will likely be negated by leaving Arlington behind. All signs point to continued decline.

But while I'm skeptical about Kinsler's chances for a bounce-back, I will readily admit that maybe we're being too harsh on Kinsler. He's not the elite player he used to be, but he's still a good player. 31 isn't terribly old, either. As Dave Cameron pointed out on FanGraphs, everyone wrote off Shane Victorino under similar circumstances last year and it turned out talk of his decline was premature. The same has happened to Carlos Beltran, David Ortiz, Derek Jeter, Lance Berkman, and countless other players in recent memory.

Therefore, it seems unwise to predict nothing but gloom and doom for Kinsler. He's going to be hitting near the top of a loaded lineup, probably behind Austin Jackson but in front of Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez. If he can stay healthy, which is never a given with Kinsler, he should be able to provide fantasy owners with pretty useful numbers, especially in the underrated runs scored category.

Kinsler's 2014: 96 runs, 16 home runs, 72 RBI, 12 steals, .268/.331/.402

Fielder for Kinsler

Fielder will likely enjoy a resurgence with the Rangers (ESPN)

In a blockbuster challenge trade that rocked the baseball landscape, the Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers swapped Prince Fielder for Ian Kinsler yesterday. Straight up (with $30 million thrown in by Detroit to help cover Fielder's hefty price tag).

What made the deal so earth-shattering was the Fielder had only fulfilled two years of his gargantuan nine-year, $214 million commitment with Detroit. When he joined Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander and co. prior to the 2012 season, he was supposed to be the guy who could get them over the hump and bring home a World Series title--something Detroit hasn't done since 1984.

Well, so much for that. After a pair of deep but ultimately unsuccessful playoff runs, the Tigers decided they could live without Fielder. He's still owed $168 mil over the next seven, a sum only a handful of teams can afford.

Texas, who spent just under $140 million on its roster last year, is one such team. I mean, if they can afford to give Kinsler's double play partner Elvis Andrus an eight-year contract extension worth $118 million, then clearly money isn't an issue. The Rangers are flush. Normally that would mean a free agent spending spree is in order, but with so many teams locking up their superstars nowadays there's a considerable dearth of top-shelf talent up for grabs. So rather than shell out upwards of nine figures for the likes of Jacoby Ellsbury, the Rangers went out and traded for one of the best-hitting, most famous hitters in the game today.

In Fielder, the Rangers are acquiring one of baseball's best run-producers. Though his power numbers dropped in both of his seasons with the Tigers (Comerica Park did him no favors in that regard), he still managed to blast 55 home runs and drive in more than 100 runs each year. His numbers should see a nice boost in Texas, where he can take advantage of the Ballpark in Arlington. More importantly, he'll provide left-handed power for a team that had next to none (Mitch Moreland, I guess?) without Josh Hamilton last year. He'll team up with Adrian Beltre to form a fearsome heart of the order.

Kinsler's outlook is less optimistic. He's struggled with injuries throughout his career, missing an average of about 30 games per year, which doesn't bode well for a middle infielder in his early 30s. When he does play, Kinsler's an elite second baseman. Since debuting in 2006, Kinsler ranks fourth at the position (tied with Ben Zobrist) in fWAR behind only Chase Utley, Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia. Kinsler doesn't do any one thing spectacularly well but can do a little bit of everything. He can hit for power, steal some bases, get on base at a decent clip and play capable defense. His numbers are trending in the wrong direction, but he still graded out as a five-win player last year according to Baseball-Reference.

So who won this trade? It's hard to say. Kinsler comes out ahead in comparisons, which are easy to make given that they both became regulars in 2006. Baseball-Reference gives Kinsler the clear edge in WAR, 34.7 to 23.5, which is even more impressive considering Kinsler has played 256 fewer games. With the FanGraphs version they're much closer. Kinsler still holds a slight 29.1 to 27.7 lead, but one-and-a-half wins spread out over eight seasons is negligible. So, on one hand, the Tigers are saving themselves roughly $76 million in future salary commitments and get the superior baseball player. Not only do they fill a hole at the keystone position, but moving Fielder allows also Cabrera (or Victor Martinez) to shift back to first base, which means the Tigers are guaranteed to get better defensively at the hot corner. That sounds like a resounding win for Detroit.

But looking at it another way, it would seem that Texas got the better end of the deal. Fielder is nearly two years younger than Kinsler, after all, and a much better hitter. Much of Kinsler's offensive value was tied up in the Rangers' home park, where he was a .304/.387/.511 hitter as opposed to .242/.312/.399 everywhere else. Comerica Park is offense-friendly too, but not to the same extreme that Arlington is. Plus it's hardly encouraging that he's batted just .200/.298/.329 in his 162 plate appearances there. He'll be a big upgrade over Omar Infante, or whoever else Detroit was planning on playing at second, but he'll be hard-pressed to replicate his Texas numbers in a Tigers uniform (though will probably still do better than his replacement--20 year-old Jurickson Profar--in Texas).

Then again, it's certainly possible that his deal won't work out for either side. While both players are still young (Kinsler is 31 and Fielder will turn 30 in the spring), they're already showing signs of decline. Kinsler's power, defense, and speed have all noticeably deteriorated in each of the past two seasons, a worrisome sign that he's following in the footsteps of so many second basemen before him who aged poorly. Fielder hasn't come close to matching the prodigious power figures he posted with Milwaukee and has seen his OPS fall from .981 in 2011--his final season with the Brewers-- to .819 last year. 2013 was clearly a down year for Fielder, but he's still in his prime and is thus more likely to bounce back rather than keep slipping, but players with his body type typically don't last very long.

The unknown variable in this equation is what Detroit will do with that extra $76 million. As the Red Sox showed last winter, it pays to have financial flexibility. They could be aggressive in free agency this winter, but there's not much out there. A safer bet would be to extend Cy Young winner Max Scherzer, who will become a free agent after next season. At the very least, Detroit has options.

In the long run, I like this deal better for Detroit. But in the short run--for 2014, at least--I'd say Texas is the winner.