Lester Lights Out

Lester's been at the top of his game since arriving in Oakland (CBS)

The Oakland A's have been the subject of much derision lately because of their second half slide, falling from the top of their division to 10.5 games back of the Angels in six weeks. The A's have all but stopped hitting, and a lot of the blame for that has been laid at the feet of Billy Beane, who traded cleanup hitter and offensive force Yoenis Cespedes to Boston for Jon Lester and Jonny Gomes. Cespedes has mashed with the Sox, while Gomes's struggles have followed him out west (no homers and .540 OPS with Oakland).

But saying the trade made Oakland worse would be a fallacy. Lester and Gomes combined have given the A's 1.6 wins above replacement in their brief time with the club, while Cespedes has provided Boston with 1.2. Acknowledging that narrow difference is too negligible to say this trade came out in Oakland's favor with any certainty, at the very least it's been even.

Because while Gomes has given the A's nothing of value, Lester's stepped up to become the undisputed ace of his new team. As good as Lester was with Boston during the first half, he's been even more dominant with Oakland. In his 10 starts with the A's, all quality, he's delivered 69 and 2/3 innings (almost seven innings per turn) of 2.20 ERA-ball. Opponents have batted just /226/.272/.354 against him during that time, which explains how he's compiled a 1.06 WHIP since he came over to Oakland. He's also maintained a nifty strikeout to walk ratio of 64/16 (4/1) and posted an average GameScore of 63.

Lester's pitched as well as advertised, and the A's have gone 7-3 in his starts. It's hardly his fault that Oakland's lineup went into hibernation, or that Scott Kazmir and Sonny Gray have fallen off, or that the bullpen's been an absolute mess lately. Lester can only impact the team every five days, and he's done an excellent job of putting them in position to win. He's been money down the stretch, doing everything in his power to stop Oakland's slide even as the majority of his teammates have struggled.

He's been at the center of an epic collapse before, but if it happens again he's made damn sure well that he won't be the one to blame.

The A's Amazing Rotation

A proven big-game pitcher, Lester will be central to Oakland's success

Going into this season, the two-time defending AL West champs appeared to have one of baseball's best rotations on paper. Then A.J. Griffin and Jarrod Parker, who together threw 397 innings of 3.90 ERA ball for Oakland in 2013, were lost for the season to Tommy John surgery before either one threw a pitch. Having 40 percent of the starting rotation evaporate before Opening Day would cripple most teams, but not the A's.

Through the Fourth of July, more than halfway through the season, Oakland was sporting the best record in baseball largely because of their pitching staff--the stingiest in the league. Then they shipped out a couple of top prospects to the Cubs for Jason Hammel and Jeff Samardzija, the former a quality arm and the latter a smoke-throwing borderline ace. The midseason additions fortified Oakland's already strong staff, making a great rotation even better.

Now, after dealing Yoenis Cespedes for Jon Lester and Jonny Gomes, Oakland's rotation looks unbeatable. It has to be considered one of if not the best in baseball alongside the collection of aces in Los Angeles, where Clayton Kershaw, Zack Grienke, Josh Beckett, Dan Haren and Hyun-jin Ryu deal for the Dodgers, and now Detroit, which on the same day added David Price to a staff already headed by Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez and Rick Porcello. What Oakland's rotation lacks in flashy names and hardware--the Tigers own the past three AL Cy Young winners and the Dodgers boast a pair in Kershaw and Greinke--they make up for in superior results. Check it out:

Tigers 3.82 ERA 1.26 WHIP 2.84 K/BB ratio 6.24 IP/GS .707 OPS 95 tOPS+ 97 sOPS+
Dodgers 3.19 ERA 1.16 WHIP 4.10 K/BB ratio 6.1 IP/GS .682 OPS 100 tOPS+ 90 sOPS+
Athletics 3.30 ERA 1.19 WHIP 2.74 K/BB ratio 6.04 IP/GS .665 OPS 107 tOPS+ 86 sOPS+

That Oakland has the lowest opponent OPS (raw and adjusted) of the three is actually very impressive considering the A's play in the American League and must contend with designated hitters rather than feeble-hitting pitchers. The Dodgers have a slight edge in ERA and WHIP, but since they're a National League team with a pitcher's haven for a home park that advantage must be discounted.

What's scary is that most of those numbers were compiled without Lester, Samardzija, and Hammel. Going forward, Oakland should be even better with a rotation that is quite literally overflowing with talent. In Lester and Sonny Gray the A's have a potent 1-2 punch with a pair of legit aces. Scott Kazmir and Samardzija--number ones on half the teams in baseball and strong number twos on the others--are mid-rotation guys in Oakland. The fifth starter is Hammel, who had a 2.98 ERA with the Cubs but has struggled since rejoining the American League.

Oakland's rotation is so loaded that there's no room for Tommy Milone or Jesse Chavez, both of whom excelled in the first half. Milone boasted  3.55 ERA and was 10-for-16 in quality starts before his demotion and subsequent trade following the Samardzija/Hammel acquisitions. With Lester on board, Chavez has been forced back to the bullpen despite strong numbers--3.44 ERA, 3.66 FIP and 2.90 K/BB ratio--in his first season as a regular starting pitcher. With Chavez having proved himself in the rotation and available to return should injury strike, Oakland has more than enough depth to last the next three months.

And with such a stacked rotation, the A's are well-positioned to hold off the Angels down the stretch and cinch their third straight division title. All those arms will make for a formidable opponent come October, when Bob Melvin can shorten the rotation and rely on his four excellent starters to get him through the postseason. Healthy and effective starting pitching is key to surviving a long regular season, but in short playoff series having elite starters is essential. Thanks to Billy Beane's wheeling and dealing, the A's now have four of them.

It's always impossible to predict who will emerge from the postseason crapshoot victorious, but the A's are as good a bet as any. 25 years removed from their most recent World Series title, they have the arms to win it all. Considering the talent Beane gave up to acquire them, they better.

A's Add Arms, Cubs Collect Chips

Jeff Samardzija makes Oakland's great rotation even better (ESPN)

"Going for it" has never really been part of Billy Beane's philosophy. He constructs his teams with the goal of regular season success in mind. They're built with depth and balance, designed to withstand the rigors of a long, grueling season. And they usually do, better than most. But without elite aces, top-shelf closers and dynamic power hitters, they are not built for the inherent randomness of postseason small sample sizes.

The playoffs are a different beast than the regular season. The margin for error is razor thin, and luck plays more of a role than we'd like to think. The goal is not to win 95 games in six months; it's to win 11 (or 12 if you're one of the wild card teams) in four weeks against the best competition baseball has to offer. Anyone can win a one-game playoff or five-to-seven game series. It truly is a crapshoot.

Beane knows this, and knows there's nothing anyone can do about it. He can't afford to chase the big-name power arms or sluggers that would likely put him over the top in the postseason. All he can do is build his team to make the playoffs and hope things fall into place. Hope they get the breaks and and the calls and the timely hits and big defensive plays.

Unfortunately for the Oakland A's, the stars haven't aligned for them in quite some time. It's been 25 years since Tony LaRussa guided Mark McGwire, Jose Canseco, Rickey Henderson, Dave Stewart, Dennis Eckersley and co. to Oakland's most recent World Series. For all the regular season success that Beane's teams have enjoyed in his 17 seasons as general manager of the A's--the six division titles, the seven playoff appearances, the two seasons with more than 100 wins and the six others with over 90--he's never won the big one. Incredibly, all of Oakland's wins have not produced a World Series championship in the most recent quarter-century. Beane's teams have never won a pennant, much less a World Series game.

This year, with Oakland cruising along to a third straight division title and likely the best record in baseball, Beane did something he rarely does. He traded young talent for established veteran starting pitching. Usually it's the other way around.

But with most teams still in the playoff hunt, Beane got a jump on the rest of baseball by making a big splash last weekend--nearly four weeks ahead of the trading deadline. He did business with another analytically-minded front office--that of Theo Epstein's and Jed Hoyer's Chicago Cubs--and was able to hammer out a deal more than a week before the All-Star Break. Dealing from a position of strength as one of the few seller's in a buyers' market, the rebuilding Cubs were able to pry away two top prospects and failed starter Dan Straily from the A's for a pair of talented starters; Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel, both of whom were enjoying excellent starts with the Cubs.

In Samardzija Oakland gets a very good pitcher, a 29 year-old flamethrower who struck out more than a batter per inning in 2012 and 2013. His 2.78 ERA would easily be the best mark of his career since becoming a regular starter in 2012, over a full run better than his previous best. None of his peripherals suggest he's been particularly lucky, so he's a good bet to sustain his performance going forward. Sure enough, he's been phenomenal in his first two starts with Oakland, allowing just four earned runs in 15 innings with a 10/1 K/BB ratio.

Hammel, with a 4.62 ERA (96 ERA+) in more than 1,000 big league innings, will never be mistaken for an ace, though he's pitched like one this year with a 2.98 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 4.52 K/BB ratio through his first 17 starts. Seeing as how Hammel is all of the sudden pitching the best baseball of his life at age 31 after many mediocre seasons, the Cubs were wise to sell high on him, though if he maintains his current K rate and walk rate--both career bests--he'll be very useful to the A's in the second half. His 3.32 FIP and xFIP indicate that he hasn't been especially lucky, though his .273 BABiP--34 points below his career rate--and 78.5 percent strand rate certainly suggest some good fortune. He's also on pace to set a career high in innings, which could lead to a fade down the stretch.

The trade gave the A's an abundance of arms. The stingiest team in the American League has so much pitching that they were forced to demote Tommy Milone, a crafty southpaw who hadn't lost a start since the beginning of May and carried a 3.55 ERA through the first week of July. On most teams he'd be a solid mid-rotation starter, but on the A's he isn't even good enough to crack the starting five.

As for the Cubs, they got quite a haul in outfielder Billy McKinney, Oakland's first-round draft pick last year, and shortstop Addison Russell--Oakland's first round selection the year before. Russell ranked as one of the sport's 15 best prospects coming into the season and has hit well in the minors, compiling an .897 OPS on the farm to date. McKinney has struggled in High-A Ball this year after raking Low-A last year but he's still only 19 and has plenty of time to figure things out. Even Straily, a decent starting pitcher before this year, could have some value if the Cubs get him right.

Both teams have to like this trade. The A's bolster their rotation and become the clear favorites to win not just the AL West, but the pennant as well. The early returns on the deal have been great, as Samardzija was terrific in his first two starts and Hammel pitched decently in his one. Meanwhile the future-minded Cubs unloaded Hammel, a free agent at year's end, and Samardzija, their most valuable trade chip. Arbitration-eligible this winter, he was due for a raise if the Cubs held on to him. In return they get two great pieces that figure to play a prominent role on the offensive juggernaut being assembled on the farm. They make the Cubs' already bright future even brighter and will likely be key contributors going forward for Chicago, who appear well-positioned to win a championship before the decade's out.

But if the Cubs win a title before Billy Beane does, then it will probably be because this trade went horribly wrong for him--like if Samardzija blows out his arm or Hammel regresses into the mediocre pitcher he was before this year. The AL West is a much more challenging division than the NL Central, which could also limit their effectiveness. Some have criticized this move as a redux of the ridiculed James Shields-Wil Myers trade from two offseasons ago, and it's possible that Beane just made a similar blunder. He hasn't had the best luck, you know.

Fielder Finished

Fielder is done, and in all likelihood so are the Rangers (NBCDFW)

Prince Fielder will go under the knife on Tuesday to repair a herniated disk in his back, an operation that requires 3-4 months of recovery time and thus ends his first season with the Texas Rangers. For the first time since 2005--his rookie season--the previously durable Fielder will finish a year with fewer than 157 games played.

The Rangers, you might recall, swapped Ian Kinsler for Fielder last fall in an effort to beef up their lineup. Fielder's elite power, on-base and run producing skills were supposed to give Texas a major threat along with Shin-Soo Choo Adrian Beltre in the heart of their order.

Instead, Fielder was a failure, batting just .247/.360/.360--numbers that were actually on the rise after his abysmal April. Cecil Fielder's son, who just celebrated his 30th birthday two weeks ago, showed no signs of resurrecting his vanishing power, managing only three home runs and 16 RBI in 42 games. Moving to Texas, and one of the best hitter's parks in baseball, was supposed to reverse his declining numbers.

Didn't happen. While all three of his home runs came at home, he batted a paltry .187/.333/.347 in 22 games there (as opposed to .307/.388/.373 on the road). Arlington is a hitter's paradise, but Fielder was unable to take advantage of it in his brief 2014 campaign (I have to imagine he'll hit better there next year). Meanwhile, Kinsler has unexpectedly flourished away from Arlington, putting up some of the best numbers of his career and helping the Tigers maintain their grip on the AL Central.

Fielder's injury has to be incredibly frustrating for the Rangers. Not just because they paid him $24 million for replacement level production (-0.3 bWAR), but also because they've been crippled by injuries. Geovany Soto, Jurickson Profar, Matt Harrison, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland, Martin Perez, Joe Saunders, Tanner Scheppers, and now Fielder, among others, are all on the Disabled List or done for the season (and don't forget that Beltre and Yu Darvish already missed time earlier this year). Decimated doesn't even begin to describe the Rangers' injury woes this season, and it's a miracle that Texas is only one game below .500 entering play today. Fielder's injury doesn't just leave a gaping hole in the middle of Ron Washington's order; it effectively dashes whatever hopes the fourth-place Rangers had of clawing back in the playoff race.

They were counting on Fielder to get hot and pick up the offense, which ranks second-to-last in the American League in home runs. They were waiting for his power stroke return as the weather heated up. They were hoping he would start resembling Prince Fielder, you know, the beastly slugger who made five All-Star teams and smacked 283 homers over the past eight seasons.

Unfortunately for the Rangers, they'll have to keep waiting.

2014 AL West Preview

Darvish will help the Rangers overtake Oakland in the AL West (NESN)

1st Place Texas Rangers
2013 Record: 91-72
2013 Pythagorean: 92-71
2014 Projected: 93-69
The Rangers rebuilt their lineup after letting it sag last year (when they tried to replace Josh Hamilton, Michael Young and Mike Napoli with Lance Berkman), adding Shin-Soo Choo to the top of the order and swapping a fading Ian Kinsler out for the still-in-his-prime Prince Fielder. Adding them to Adrian Beltre, Alex Rios, Elvis Andrus and Jackson Profar gives the Rangers one of baseball's best offenses in 2014. The pitching staff is iffier because of injuries to Matt Harrison and Derek Holland, but Yu Darvish looks like the AL Cy Young favorite and could have a vintage Pedro Martinez-esque season in store. I believe Martin Perez and Tanner Scheppers, though inexperienced, are capable enough to pick up the slack, and Tommy Hanson has some bounce back potential if he can shake off back-to-back poor seasons and recapture the form that made him look like a future ace from 2009 through 2011. The back of the rotation is very questionable, but I think the Rangers will hit enough and Darvish will pitch well enough to help hide their mistakes. When healthy they'll have an incredibly dangerous team and will be in the conversation for World Series favorites.

2nd Place Oakland A's
2013 Record: 96-66
2013 Pythagorean: 96-66
2014 Projected: 90-72
Oakland followed up their surprise 2012 division title by winning the AL West again in 2013, largely by relying on their depth and surprisingly good lineup constructed of fly ball hitters. I don't see them making it three in a row, though. Josh Donaldson, Brandon Moss and Coco Crisp are all due for some major regression, and I seriously doubt that Jed Lowrie will stay healthy again. Yoenis Cespedes and Josh Reddick should be better, but on the whole I think Oakland's offense will fall back to the middle of the pack after ranking third in the American League in runs scored last year. The rotation has already been hit hard by injuries, losing Jarrod Parker for the entire year and A.J. Griffin for the start of the season. That forces the A's to lean heavily on the always unpredictable Scott Kazmir, the merely solid Tommy Milone and young Sonny Gray, who has Cy Young potential but may be overworked in his first full season as a starter. The bullpen is phenomenal, if not baseball's best, and the bench looks deep as well. I'm sure the A's will find a way to plug the leaks because they always seem to find a way, but right now I see too many issues to predict a third straight division flag for Billy Beane's crew.

3rd Place Los Angeles Angels
2013 Record: 78-84
2013 Pythagorean: 81-81
2014 Projected: 84-78
Mike Trout can't possibly get any better, can he? He found a way to improve upon his monster rookie season, showing a keener eye at the plate and cutting down on strikeouts last year. This year he's focused on being more aggressive early in the count, which would allow him to take advantage of first-pitch fastballs every now and then. Don't bet against Trout reaching new heights in 2014. Unfortunately, the other 24 Angels probably aren't good enough to help LA overcome Texas and Oakland. Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols need to bounce back for this team to reach its potential, and neither one is a sure thing. David Freese improves the third base situation, but only if he avoids a repeat of his disappointing 2013. Kyle Calhoun's a popular breakout candidate and could be this year's version of Matt Carpenter or Josh Donaldson. The Angels will score runs, even without Mark Trumbo's big power bat, but the starting rotation once again figures to be their downfall. Jered Weaver isn't the ace he used to be, and C.J. Wilson is merely solid as the number two. Garrett Richards and Hector Santiago don't score anybody and are mediocre at best. The true wildcard in the rotation is southpaw Tyler Skaggs, acquired in the Trumbo trade with Arizona. Just 22 and pitching in a much more friendly environment for hurlers, Skaggs could give the rotation a big boost if he makes good on the promise that made him one of baseball's top prospects as recently as last year. If everything goes right for the Angels then a postseason berth becomes a very real possibility, and they should at least have a winning record, but they just don't enough arms to compete with the division's top dogs.

4th Place Seattle Mariners
2013 Record: 71-91
2013 Pythagorean: 67-95
2014 Projected: 77-85
Robinson Cano can't turn the Mariners into contenders overnight, especially if his performance takes a hit from trading Yankee Stadium for Safeco Field (which, combined with age, probably will). He'll still add a lot of punch to a lineup that desperately needs it after losing Raul Ibanez, Kendrys Morales, and Mike Morse. Corey Hart and Logan Morrison are intriguing additions but probably won't provide the kind of impact Seattle's hoping for. Breakout seasons from Brad Miller, Justin Smoak and Dustin Ackley are more likely and would go a long way towards beefing up the Mariners' lineup around Cano, as would another strong season from third baseman Kyle Seager.. The top of the rotation is excellent with Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma, but there's just not enough depth beyond them to vault the M's into contention. Anytime you have Randy Wolf in your starting rotation, you know you're in trouble. I see the Mariners improving over last year, but not enough to enjoy a winning season.

5th Place Houston Astros
2013 Record: 51-111
2013 Pythagorean: 57-105
2014 Projected: 59-103
The rebuilding Astros are going to be terrible once again, but at least they should be better. Most of their starting nine is in their early or mid-20s and is ripe for improvement. Adding major league caliber players such as Dexter Fowler and Scott Feldman is a step in the right direction, and they already have a couple All-Star worthy talents in Jose Altuve and Jason Castro. Chris Carter's a solid source of power and on-base percentage, but really needs to cut down on his strikeouts. Speedy shortstop Jonathan Villar has 50 steal potential if he can stay healthy and get on base at a reasonable clip, as he did during last year's debut (.321 OBP). The remade bullpen should be better, too. Best case scenario, a lot of the young talent steps up and Houston only loses 90 games instead of 100.

AL West Preview

1st Place--Los Angeles Angels
2012 Record: 89-73
2012 Pythagorean: 88-74
2013 Projected: 92-70
After starting last year 7-15 with Mike Trout toiling in the minors and Albert Pujols mired in the worst slump of his career, the Halos dug themselves out of an early hole and produced the best record in baseball from that point forward. Though their wretched April cost them a playoff berth in 2012, the Angels are poised to make the postseason after inking Josh Hamilton--the most coveted position player on the free agent market--to a five-year, $125 million deal. Though the former MVP is on the wrong side of 30 and will likely regress and/or get hurt following a career year in 2012, he'll provide a heavy dose of lefthanded power LA so desperately craves. That said, don't be surprised if Hamilton goes bust and Torii Hunter, now with the Tigers, produces more value in 2013. Mike Scoscia will have the pleasure of filling out a lineup card that features baseball's best all-around player (Trout), baseball's most exciting player (Hamilton) and one of the best hitters of all-time in Pujols. Trout figures to slide a bit following his historic season, but at least his talent won't be wasted in the minor leagues. Pujols shrugged off a slow start to bat .312/.374/.589 from May 15th onward, proving talk about his decline to be premature. Expect similar numbers in year two of his gargantuan contract. Slugger Mark Trumbo has been a mess since the end of July, but I think he reverts to his mashing ways in his age-27 season. I could also see Peter Bourjos breaking out. Jered Weaver, the only American League pitcher to finish in the top five of the Cy Young voting in each of the past three years, is a bona fide ace even though his strikeout rate has plunged from 9.3 K/9 in 2010 to 6.8 K/9 last year. C.J Wilson will improve upon his first season with the Angels when he takes advantage of the run support boost and friendly home ballpark. Jason Vargas and Tommy Hanson are intriguing additions to the starting rotation, though I'm guessing most Angels fans would rather have seen their team keep Dan Haren and Zack Greinke. However, I don't think they'll miss Ervin Santana and Vernon Wells too much. The bullpen should get a nice boost from Ryan Madson, but it remains to be seen how effective he'll be after sitting out all of last year recovering from Tommy John surgery. Given how much worse the Rangers got over the winter, the AL West is theirs for the taking.

2nd Place--Texas Rangers
2012 Record: 93-69
2012 Pythagorean: 91-71
2013 Projected: 88-74
As if blowing their division lead on the regular season’s final day wasn’t miserable enough, the Texas Rangers followed up their late-season collapse with a lean winter. They waved goodbye when sluggers Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli signed with new teams. They parted ways with veteran leader and fan favorite Michael Young. They winced when Nelson Cruz‘s name surfaced in the latest PED scandal. They whiffed on Justin Upton. Talk about a rough offseason. Faced with limited options and suddenly short on offense, the Rangers turned to Lance Berkman out of desperation. Five years ago that would have been a great get for them, but Big Puma is 37 and doesn't appear to have much left in the tank after needing four separate DL stints last year. He's just one of many Rangers at risk for disappointing seasons. Texas paced the American League in runs and hits last year, and while their lineup is still formidable there's no way that happens again this year. Adrian Beltre is their best hitter, and he'll be 34 two weeks from now. Ian Kinsler is on the wrong side of 30, too, and second basemen age horribly. Cruz will turn 33 and his best days are probably behind him. At 36, A.J. Pierzynski can't possibly repeat his career year and will probably wear down over the course of a long Texas summer. The offense will probably be fine, but there's a lot of downside risk here and not much upside. Yu Darvish made adjustments toward the end of last year and is going to have a big sophomore season (like Daisuke Matsuzaka did). He needs to cut down on his walks, but could win 20 games and the Cy Young award even though the Ballpark in Arlington will likely suppress his numbers. He anchors a strong rotation that also features Matt Harrison, Derek Holland, and Alexi Ogando. Joe Nathan proved he's still an elite closer in his Texas debut last year, making the All-Star team and saving 37 games. Joakim Soria, a former All-Star closer with the Kansas City Royals, will set him up. The Rangers certainly have enough talent to win 90+ games again and challenge the top spot in the division, but I see them taking a small step back in 2013.


3rd Place--Oakland A's
2012 Record: 94-68
2012 Pythagorean: 92-70
2013 Projected: 83-79
I still can't believe these guys won the AL West last year, especially since they ended May seven games below .500. Maybe that's why I can't shake the feeling that they just got red-hot for four months and will probably fall back to earth in 2013 (not quite like the Orioles, but similar). The A's are woefully short on offense without Chris Carter, Stephen Drew, and Jonny Gomes, though the middle of the order has some potential. Yoenis Cespedes is a Vladimir Guerrero-type who can hit the ball out of a canyon and is an MVP-candidate-in-the-making, but I'm not totally sold on Josh Reddick as an All-Star caliber player just yet. Chris Young brings a nice power/speed combo, but it's worth noting that he's a .224/.311/.409 hitter away from Chase Field. Jemile Weeks is almost guaranteed to bounce back from a miserable year in which his BABiP cratered at .256. The bottom half of their lineup is a disaster, so runs will be in short supply. That means Oakland will have to rely on its elite pitching staff, which ranked second in ERA last year. With Jarrod Parker, Tommy Milone, A.J. Griffin, and Dan Straily all poised to build off successful 2012s, the young rotation is brimming with upside. Brandon McCarthy will be missed, but Oakland is hoping Brett Anderson can finally stay healthy after averaging just 13 starts per year over the past three. He's demonstrated the ability to pitch like an ace, so a full season from him would go a long way towards boosting his team's playoff chances (but I wouldn't count on it). The bullpen looks stellar on paper, and the defense is solid, too. The A's could be a great team again if the starting pitching improves and Cespedes makes the leap to superstardom, but I see them settling into the 80-85 win range and missing the postseason.

4th Place--Seattle Mariners
2012 Record: 75-87
2012 Pythagorean: 77-85
2013 Projected: 73-89
The Mariners have lacked adequate firepower for quite some time now--you'd have to go back to the end of the Bush administration to find the last time Seattle didn't finish last among AL teams in runs scored. That's going to change this year after taking on veteran hitters Michael Morse, Kendrys Morales, Raul Ibanez, and Jason Bay. Ibanez and Bay are bench players at this stage in their careers, but Morales and Morse add much-needed pop to the middle of the order. As the cornerstone of Seattle's lineup, Jesus Montero must (and will) improve upon his disappointing 2012 (.685 OPS, -0.2 bWAR). He's just 23 and still has room to grow, as do Kyle Seager, Dustin Ackley and Justin Smoak. Moving in Safeco's fences will help these young hitters, but not enough to make much of a difference. The Mariners have one of the best pitchers around in Felix Hernandez, but he seems to be at risk for a down year after receiving a mammoth contract extension and throwing more innings than any other hurler since 2009. Seattle's rotation is a mess with him and would be downright unwatchable without him. M's are stocked with young pitching talent that could arrive in the Show later this year, but by the time they're ready to contribute it will too late to improve Seattle's non-existent playoff chances. They're still rebuilding and at least another year or two away from making a serious run at one of the wild card spots.

5th Place--Houston Astros
2012 Record: 55-107
2012 Pythagorean: 59-103
2013 Record: 58-104
Welcome to the American League, boys. It's going to eat you alive.

Hamilton to Hollywood

Hamilton is happy to be an Angel

Last December the Los Angeles Angels dominated the Hot Stove headlines by committing more than $300 million to Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson. Over the summer they landed Zack Greinke, the most prized trade deadline target, to form a super-rotation with Wilson, Dan Haren, Jered Weaver, and Ervin Santana.

But for all their wheeling and dealing, the Halos finished third in a four-team division. The Los Angeles Dodgers missed the playoffs, too, despite bringing in Hanley Ramirez, Shane Victorino, Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Joe Blanton and Carl Crawford to fortify a roster that already boasted the league's top position player (Matt Kemp) and pitcher (Clayton Kershaw).

The Dodgers added more star power by shelling out $147.5 million for Greinke, the best pitcher on the market. The Angels countered by stealing Josh Hamilton, the best available hitter, from their division rivals with a five-year, $125 million deal. Hamilton provides a lefthanded power bat his new team sorely needed. He joins a lineup that has baseball's version of the Big Three, featuring the best all-around player in the game, the best hitter of his generation and the sport's most exciting, dynamic talent. It would be like pairing Ted Williams with Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays.

But don't go handing them the AL West title just yet. Pujols will be 33 next year and his OPS has declined each season since 2008, falling from a superlative 1.114 to a merely good .859 in his Califorinia debut. Trout can't possibly get any better and will likely regress in 2013. Hamilton is the biggest wild card of all, an every-other year player on the wrong side of 30 who also seems like a good bet to regress after moving away from a hitter's haven in Texas to a pitcher's paradise in Anaheim. The former MVP and batting champ is also likely to miss a good chunk of time; he's topped 150 games played just once throughout his career and isn't getting any younger.

No one knows what to make of Hamilton after his rollercoaster 2012 campaign that highlighted the mountainous peaks and cavernous valleys that have defined his six major league seasons. After a magical first two months to the season highlighted by a historic night in Baltimore that saw him blast four home runs, the MVP frontrunner fell into a prolonged slump and everyone soured on him. Nolan Ryan called him out. Rangers fans booed him. He was criticized for giving away at-bats with his hyper-aggressive batting approach, lack of plate discipline, and Vladimir Guerrero-esque tendency to hack at any pitch in the general vicinity of the strike zone.

The numbers speak for themselves. From June 1st until the end of the season, the enigmatic outfielder batted an uninspiring .245 with 123 strikeouts. The five-time All-Star also seemed to let his struggles at the dish follow him out onto the field, where his typically solid defense deteriorated sharply during the second half of the season.

But even with his summer slide, Hamilton still finished his contract year with gaudy power numbers. His 43 home runs, 128 RBI, and .577 SLG all ranked second in the Junior Circuit, surpassed only by Triple Crown winner and league MVP Miguel Cabrera, while his HR/AB ratio was bested only by Edwin Encarnacion. Hamilton also placed top five in OPS, runs, intentional walks, total bases, and extra base hits. Not too shabby.

I doubt he'll compile similar statistics next year, though, or possibly ever again given his combination of age, injury history, personal baggage and move to a pitcher-friendly environment. I project him to replicate Pujols' .285-30-105 production from last year, but can't see Hamilton repeating his past performances. His numbers were inflated by the Ballpark in Arlington, where he owns a .315./373/.592 batting line, as well as his great supporting cast of Ian Kinsler, Adrian Beltre, Michael Young, Elvis Andrus, Nelson Cruz, and Mike Napoli that made Texas a run-scoring machine.

Hamilton is still a great hitter and tremendous talent regardless of where he plays, but I'm willing to bet we've already seen the best of him. He inked the same contract as Ryan Howard at the same age--32--and after the first year of Howard's deal it's already looking like a massive mistake. Same goes for Pujols. And I don't have to tell you about Alex Rodriguez, the only player with a larger annual salary than Hamilton.

The deal he got was fair, but I doubt he'll be worth the money. Then again, few players with nine-figure contracts (Alfonso Soriano, Vernon Wells and Barry Zito come to mind) are.

Merry Christmas!

Johnson, Melvin Best Managers

Davey Johnson and Bob Melvin were named managers of the year on Tuesday after leading their respective clubs to the postseason. Both were eliminated during the division series, but that disappointing result doesn't take anything away from the phenomenal seasons enjoyed by these two skippers.

Eleven years removed from his last managerial gig, Johnson took over the Washington Nationals halfway through last season three days after Jim Riggleman unexpectedly resigned. The Nats went 40-43 under his command to finish the season one game below .500. Johnson agreed to come back, and the front office deepened his pitching arsenal by signing Edwin Jackson and trading for Gio Gonzalez.

Heading into 2012 the Nationals were viewed as an intriguing team loaded with young talent, but was probably another year or two away from making the leap to bona fide contenders. Certainly nobody expected them to wrestle the division away from the star-studded Phillies, winners of 102 games in 2011. The Braves were going to be tough as always, and the Marlins looked dangerous after adding Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell via free agency. Even though the NL East was shaping up to be a crowded field, it was reasonable to assume the Nats would win more than they would lose. In my own preseason predictions, I projected Washington to win 86 games and finish third in their division. Best case scenario, maybe they would win 90, 92 tops.

But 98 wins? In that division? Not even Washington's slickest politicians could have spun that one to make it sound believable.

But it happened. The new-look Marlins tanked. Philadelphia floundered. The Mets disappointed. Washington saw a golden opportunity and seized it by the throat. The Nats hit the ground running, jumping out to a 14-4 start and never looking back. They held first place in the NL East fot all but 13 games, including every day after May 21st. At no point in the season did they ever fall below second place. When the dust settled at the end of the season, Washington owned the best record in the bigs. This year's vintage brought playoff baseball back to the nation's capitol for the first time since 1933, only to choke away a six run lead in Game 5 of the NLDS.

Washington's dominance can be explained in one word; pitching. Stephen Strasburg was the dominant force everyone thought he would be before he was shut down. Gio Gonzalez led the majors in wins and had a Cy Young-caliber season. Jordan Zimmermann retained his title as the best pitcher nobody talks about. Ross Detwiler and Edwin Jackson rounded out the rotation. The starting five missed just a dozen starts between them. The bullpen was just as strong despite losing closer Drew Storen for the first half.

The offense survived injuries to Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth, Wilson Ramos, Ian Desmond, and Mike Morse. Adam LaRoche rebounded from a lost 2011 to slug 33 home runs and drive in 100 with a huge contract year. NL Rookie of the Year Bryce Harper had the best season ever by a teenager. Desmond emerged as the league's top shortstop.

Johnson, who turns 70 next year, will manage the Nationals again in 2013 before becoming a consultant. Washington has all the pieces in place and is constructed to contend for years to come. I like their chances of making the World Series next season

Like Johnson, Melvin stepped into the manager's role halfway through last year. He guided the A's to a 47-52 finish, decent enough given their 27-36 start under Bob Geren.

But Billy Beane clearly didn't view his team as a contender in the near future, so he cashed in his established talent for young, unproven prospects. He dealt Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, Guillermo Moscoso, Andrew Bailey and Ryan Sweeney for the likes of Ryan Cook, Jarrod Parker, Tommy Milone, A.J. Cole and Seth Smith. He let Hideki Matsui, David Dejesus and Josh Willingham, his best hitter, walk.

Hamstrung by his organization's microscopic payroll, Beane blew up his roster and started from scratch. But, as usual, he managed to stretch the money he did have. Beane splurged on Yoenis Cespedes, his one big signing, then raided the bargain bin. The shrewd GM scooped up Bartolo Colon, Brandon Moss, Jonny Gomes, and Brandon Inge for next to nothing. After a busy winter, Beane had somehow managed to cobble together his usual band of misfits. Best case scenario, they'd finish close to .500.

Oakland was written off before Spring Training. The AL West  a battle for supremacy between the Texas Rangers and the Los Angeles Angels, reducing the A's and Seattle Mariners to glorified punching bags. How could Oakland compete against the two-time defending AL champs, who brought back all their key players and added Yu Darvish? How could they possibly beat the Halos, who signed the best hitter (Albert Pujols) and best pitcher (C.J. Wilson) on the market? Surely these two powerhouses would eat the A's alive. Nobody, myself included, gave them a snowball's chance in hell.

For the first half of the season, Oakland was the team everybody thought they would be. In other words, not very good. After losing to the Rangers on June 30th they fell to 37-42. They weren't hitting, and their young players were struggling to find consistency. Then the calendar flipped to July and they became the best team and best story in baseball overnight. From July 1st onward, the Oakland A's went 57-26. That's a .687 winning percentage, folks. They rode this second half surge all the way to the finish line, chasing down the Texas Rangers and stealing the division from them on the season's final day.

The A's racked up 94 wins by squeezing just enough offense out of their lineup to back their outstanding pitching, which ranked second among AL teams in ERA. Cespedes lived up to the hype. Josh Reddick came out of nowhere to become the best all-around rightfielder in the American League. The bullpen, minus Brian Fuentes and Tyson Ross, was untouchable.

But, as Billy Beane's teams are apt to do, the A's folded in the playoffs. They took the Tigers to the brink in the ALDS after falling behind 2-0, but Justin Verlander slammed the door on their Cinderella season with a complete game shutout. Oakland's magical run was over.

By now I should know better than to count them out, but I don't see the A's returning to the postseason next season. I know I said the same thing in the preseason, but the Rangers and Angels are too good. I feel like the A's caught lightning in a bottle this year, like the Mavericks did during their championship run two summers ago. But it's not like everything went right for Oakland, either. Colon was busted for PED use. Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson missed time. Jemile Weeks was terrible. If they can stay healthy next year and perform up to their potential, their contributions should help offset some expected regression to the mean.

Oakland On a Roll

I admit it; I was wrong.

Back during the dark days of February, when I put together my 2012 season projections, I awarded the Oakland Athletics last place in the American League West. 

I won't make you go back into the archives and dig it up.  On February 22nd I stated, in no uncertain terms, that "Oakland has given away all its current talent and is poised to run away with last place." I didn't stop there, either.  I compared them to the Houston Astros, projected them to lose 98 games and deemed Cuban import Yoenis Cespedes to be a "surefire bust" in his hyped MLB debut.

Whoops.

But hindisght is 20/20.  In retrospect, I was clearly being too harsh on them.  My pessimistic prediction resembled more of a worst case scenario, but still accurately reflected how little I thought ot them at the time.  Surely I wasn't the only one lacking faith in them; six months ago, who in their right mind believed these A's would be leading the AL Wild Card at the end of August, 17 games above .500 with the third best record in the American League? If everything broke right, they might win more games than they lost for the first time since 2006.  Maybe. But nobody, and I mean nobody, believed they had this type of season in them. Not even the most optimistic and enthusiastic Athletics fans could have seen their team's magical midseason run coming.

Not in their wildest dreams.

Because six months ago, Oakland's front office readily admitted that they had gone into rebuilding mode, and teams in that state rarely, if ever, contend right away.  Just ask the Houston Astros.  Or the Chicago Cubs.  Rebuilding typically means "don't expect us to make the playoffs anytime soon, but stick with us.  All we need is some rain, sunshine, and a little bit of luck, hopefully we'll be good a few years from now."  Sacrificing the present for the future.  It sucks, but almost every team has to go through it at some point (even the Red Sox and Phillies, to some degree) unless you're the Yankees and have enough money to field an All-Star team every year.

But the Oakland A's are not the New York Yankees.  In fact, they're on completely opposite ends of the spectrum, at least as far as money is concerned.  The Yanks have been outspending everyone else for years and began the season with a payroll scraping $200 million and a roster loaded with marquee talent.  The A's, on the other hand, have the lowest payroll in the American League with a bottom line of 55 million dollars and change.  So the A's are spending 28 cents for every dollar New York pours into their loaded roster, and yet their records are nearly identical.

Billy Beane has done it again.

In the wake of another disappointing season, Beane overhauled the roster last winter. He blew up the starting rotation by flipping starters Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill and Guillermo Moscoso to the National League, shipped Ryan Sweeney and 2009 AL Rookie of the Year Andrew Bailey to Boston, and let his most productive hitter--Josh Willingham--leave via free agency.  In return he bolstered the farm system and netted a treasure chest of major league ready talent that has formed the nucleus of this year's ballclub.  Beane received rookies Jarrod Parker and Ryan Cook for Cahill, got Tommy Milone and top pitching prospect A.J. Cole for Gonzalez, and hit the jackpot with Josh Reddick (4.6 bWAR) in the Bailey/Sweeney trade.  He also scored incredible bargains with free agent signings Jonny Gomes (one-year, $1 million dollars, and an .842 OPS), Brandon Moss (.874 OPS) and Big Fat Bartolo Colon (one-year, $2 million dollars for an above average starting pitcher).

It was classic Billy Beane; picking people's pockets and finding cheap, undervalued talent on the free agent market.  Moneyballs philosophies at their finest.  And while his shoestring budget prevented him from making offers to Jose Reyes, C.J. Wilson, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder he did splurge on raw, untested Yoenis Cespedes. Beane invested four years and 36 million dollars on the coveted Cuban outfielder, and so far it looks like money well spent.  His prodigious power manifested itself immediately, and after going through an adjustment period in the spring the freshman quickly developed into a tremendous hitter.  He's maintained his aggressive approach at the plate while simultaneously cutting down on his strikeouts, and is trading power for contact.  No longer swinging from his heels every time up, Cespedes has ditched the feast-or-famine reputation he built in April and has provided steady production all summer long.  Over the past three months he's batted .327/.384/.539, a stat line reminiscent of fellow free-swinger Vladimir Guerrero.  If not for Mike Trout's historic rookie campaign, Cespedes would likely be the favorite to take home AL Rookie of the Year honors despite spending most of May on the Disabled List and missing another two weeks in June.  Provided that he can stay healthy, the 26 year-old still has room to grow and seems poised for several more big seasons in an Oakland uniform.

As expected, it took awhile for the youngsters to hit their stride as the Athletics started slow out of the gate.  Oakland dropped three of four to the Mariners to open the season and treaded water early on. They hovered  around .500 through the season's first quarter before losing nine in a row from May 22nd through June 1st.  Their already slumbering bats went into hibernation, scoring just a dozen runs over that horrendous stretch and coming up empty four times (and this was not an isolated dry spell, either; during their first 54 games, exactly one-third of a season, the A's offense got blanked eleven times and averaged three runs per game).  On June 10th they bottomed out; Arizona swept them, their record plunged to 26-35 and they found themselves in last place. That explains why this team wasn't even considered for my surprise contenders post, published a few days prior.  All signs pointed to another dull summer of baseball for Oakland and their fans, and unfortunately football season was still three months away.

But with interleague play in full swing, the A's took advantage of the inferior NL competition.  They swept the Rockies, took two of three from the Padres, and then swept the Dodgers.  No one knew it at the time, but they were off and running, and when interleague play ended, they kept winning.  The Athletics finished the first half on a high note, climbing back up to .500 after going 6-1 in the week leading up to the All-Star Break.  They picked up where they left off after the Midsummer Classic by sweeping the Twins in Minnesota to kick off the second half.  The  A's were baseball's hottest team, in the midst of a sizzling four week stretch that saw them win 18 of 21 games from July 1st through the 28th. This surge was headlined by a jaw-dropping four game sweep of the Yankees from 7/19-7/22 in which the plucky underdogs prevailed by one run each time.

Oakland finally cooled off in the first two weeks of August, but didn't go away. Instead, they rattled off another remarkable run by going 13-2 over their past 15.  Instead of wearing down during the dog days of August, they've gained strength and become an uppstoppable late summer hurricane.  Brett Anderson has been magnificent since returning from Tommy John surgery and  A.J. Griffin comes back today.  Both hurlers arrived just in time for the crucial playoff push and will supply fresh arms for a rotation that just lost Colon to a positive drug test.

But they must contribute.  Skipper Bob Melvin is counting on his pitchers to hold up over the next month, because if they falter the offense doesn't have the firepower to outslug their opponents.  The anemic A's rate second to last in both batting average and on-base percentage, third to last in OPS and fourth to last in runs scored among AL teams.  The infield deserves the majority of the blame for this collective ineptitude.  Look at how each position has fared thus far in 2012:

C   .202/.257/.306
1B .231/.331/.451
2B .220/.300/.305
3B .220/.270/.387
SS  .191/.260/.291

Ouch. Catcher Kurt Suzuki (since traded to the Nationals) hit one home run in 278 plate appearances with a comically bad 49 OPS+.  Shortstop Cliff Pennington was just as ineffective with a 54 OPS+, necessitating a late summer trade for Stephen Drew (who looks headed down the same path of injury prone disappointment traveled by big brother J.D. Drew). Jemile Weeks has managed to hit even worse than his older brother Rickie Weeks by batting .220 with no power.  Brandon Inge had a big week in early May (overshadowed by Josh Hamilton's home run exploits) but has since returned to playing like, well, Brandon Inge.  Oakland's first basemen, mostly Moss, Chris Carter and Daric Barton, have at least managed to pop 25 home runs, more than Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira and Adrian Gonzalez.

So with the infield hitting .213/.284/.347 as a whole, it's a miracle this team doesn't get shutout three times a week.  Thankfully the outfield is batting a much more potent .267/.334/.470, mainly because Cespedes (.864 OPS) and Reddick (28 home runs) have emerged as legitimate middle of the order threats. The revolving door of Designated Hitters has chipped in a solid .777 OPS as well.  There's just enough talent here to outproduce the Seattle Mariners. Overall, the lineup compensates for its glaring weaknesses by manufacturing runs.  They rank third in walks, fifth in steals, and rise to the occasion with timely hitting; as a team their OPS is .685 when the bases are empty, .799 with runners in scoring position, and pinch-hitters are batting .306/.408/.516--essentially Edgar Martinez's career triple slash stats.  It's also worth noting that the offense has ramped it up in the second half with a .778 OPS, more than 100 points higher than its .667 first half mark, and has averaged nearly five runs per game since the beginning of June.

Still, it's hardly a surprise that the key to their success has been run prevention.  Oakland's pitching staff, led by a strong rotation and deep bullpen, ranks second in the American League in ERA, behind only the Tampa Bay Rays.  The starters have thrived despite a 6.2 K/9 rate because they limit walks and home runs.  The relief corps doesn't feature a shutdown closer but has still thrived, holding opponents to a .208 batting average and maintaining a 2.82 ERA.  The defense is decent, too.  Reddick is the best defensive rightfielder in the league (better, even, than Ichiro Suzuki) with Inge, Pennington and Coco Crisp also rating as plus defenders at key positions.  Their fielding prowess is somewhat negated by atrocious glovework from Cespedes and Weeks, but every team has its share of defensive liabilities.  All in all, Billy Beane has built a balanced team.

While the A's have exceeded any reasonable expectation, their 74-57 Pythagorean record is identical to their real record, an indication their success is not a fluke.  The sad thing is, even with all this winning the Coliseum is still half full on most nights.  Attendance has jumped for the third consecutive year but only 20,348 fans show up for the typical game (seating capacity is 35,067), even with Oakland in the thick of a pennant race.  As recently as August 20th there were little more than 10,000 on hand for a series opener against the Twins.  Oakland ranks second to last among AL teams in attendance--only the Tampa Bay Rays draw fewer fans--and haven't finishEd Higher than twelfth since 2005.  No star power and constant roster turnover have taken their tolls, but the biggest culprit remains the Coliseum itself.  Even when you put a winning product on the field, it's not easy to put a lot of butts in the seats when the park around that field is a soulless, carvernous football stadium pushing 50 years old.  If winning baseball games isn't enough, then a new state of the art stadium in San Jose seems to be the only solution.

But can the A's keep winning?  After bludgeoning Boston 20-2 last night, coolstandings.com gives them an 83.3 percent chance of making the playoffs, better than every team not named the Yankees or Rangers, but a postseason berth is far from secure.  After this series with the Red Sox their September schedule gets brutal.  Seven games against the Angels, seven with the Rangers, three in Detroit, three versus the Orioles, and three more in New York.  That's 23 games against top teams, the cream of the American League crop.  And with Seattle on a second half roll of their own (28-17 dating back to July 16th), those six matchups against the Mariners don't look as appetizing as they did a few months ago.

When the going gets tough, the tough get going. We're going to find out what this Oakland team is made of in September, whether they are contenders or pretenders.  If the pitching holds steady and the offense doesn't revert to its April/May level of futility, they should be fine.  But if their young pitchers hit the wall and the bats cool off, they're going to get eaten alive.

The last time I looked into my crystal ball, I couldn't have been more wrong.  Like most people, I don't handle failure well.  So this time around, I'm going to keep my mouth shut