Samardzija Slipping

Samardzija isn't the pitcher the Giants are paying him to be (ESPN)

One would think that a smart, competitive baseball team wouldn't want to spend almost $100 million on a 31 year-old pitcher who just led the major leagues in earned runs and hits allowed. And yet, that is what the San Francisco Giants just did by inking Jeff Samardzija to a five-year, $90 million deal.

The question isn't how much stock you put in Samardzija's fluky 2015, a bad year exacerbated by terrible luck. The question is how much faith do you put in a guy on the wrong side of 30 who had one All-Star season sandwiched between two horrendous ones?

Because $90 million is a huge investment in a pitcher who's yet to demonstrate any sort of consistency beyond his ability to top 200 innings repeatedly -- something he's done three straight years now. Despite his advanced age, Samardzija's been a full-time starter only four years, during which time his results have varied wildly. He was good in 2012, bad in 2013, great in 2014, and terrible last year. His career has been a rollercoaster ride in the same vein as Clay Buchholz's, minus the injuries.

Who is the real Jeff Samardzija, then? Probably somewhere in between, but definitely in decline. His strikeout rate has dropped every year since 2012, from a stellar 9.27 K/9 to last year's mediocre 6.9 K/9. He's lost nearly a mile off his average fastball during this time, which explains why batter pull rates have increased against him the last two years along with those sinking whiff rates. Hitters aren't just making more contact against him--they're having an easier time turning on his stuff.

Samardzija seemed to be compensating for this drop in velocity by becoming more of a sinkerballer, as his ground ball rates improved steadily from 2010 through 2014. Last year was a reversal of this trend, however, as he posted his lowest grounder rate since 2010--a direct result of leaving too many pitches up in the zone (hence all the homers). A return to form requires that he gets back to keeping the ball down, lest he continue surrendering big flies at a prodigious rate.

Moving back to the National League and trading Chicago's launching pad for San Francisco's pitcher's heaven will help, as will regression to the mean. But Samardzija's never going to be the pitcher he was two years ago unless his strikeout rate returns -- a longshot given his plummeting velocity. At best, he projects to be a mid-rotation arm, while at worst he's a back-of-the-rotation filler making boatloads of money.

The Giants know better than anyone what it's like to be stuck with a bad, expensive, healthy starting pitcher--i.e. Barry Zito, Tim Lincecum, and now Matt Cain--which makes this deal all the more confusing. Obviously they expect him to bounce back, which I think he will to some degree, but they were probably just as motivated by their disappointing 2015 campaign and subsequent failure to land Zack Greinke.

I just don't see this deal working out for San Francisco. I think it's going to end up like the Lincecum extension, which everyone knew was a mistake at the time and, sure enough, proved to be a huge waste of money. Except this deal is even worse, because the Giants are on the hook for more years and dollars with an older, less established pitcher who's on his fourth team in three years (never mind the fact that Samardzija was never as good for as long as Lincecum--a two-time Cy Young winner).

As with Lincecum, Brian Sabean is overestimating Samardzija's ability to rebound from a bad season and not seeing the forest for the trees. He's paying Shark to be the pitcher he used to be, not the pitcher he is or will be.

The A's Amazing Rotation

A proven big-game pitcher, Lester will be central to Oakland's success

Going into this season, the two-time defending AL West champs appeared to have one of baseball's best rotations on paper. Then A.J. Griffin and Jarrod Parker, who together threw 397 innings of 3.90 ERA ball for Oakland in 2013, were lost for the season to Tommy John surgery before either one threw a pitch. Having 40 percent of the starting rotation evaporate before Opening Day would cripple most teams, but not the A's.

Through the Fourth of July, more than halfway through the season, Oakland was sporting the best record in baseball largely because of their pitching staff--the stingiest in the league. Then they shipped out a couple of top prospects to the Cubs for Jason Hammel and Jeff Samardzija, the former a quality arm and the latter a smoke-throwing borderline ace. The midseason additions fortified Oakland's already strong staff, making a great rotation even better.

Now, after dealing Yoenis Cespedes for Jon Lester and Jonny Gomes, Oakland's rotation looks unbeatable. It has to be considered one of if not the best in baseball alongside the collection of aces in Los Angeles, where Clayton Kershaw, Zack Grienke, Josh Beckett, Dan Haren and Hyun-jin Ryu deal for the Dodgers, and now Detroit, which on the same day added David Price to a staff already headed by Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez and Rick Porcello. What Oakland's rotation lacks in flashy names and hardware--the Tigers own the past three AL Cy Young winners and the Dodgers boast a pair in Kershaw and Greinke--they make up for in superior results. Check it out:

Tigers 3.82 ERA 1.26 WHIP 2.84 K/BB ratio 6.24 IP/GS .707 OPS 95 tOPS+ 97 sOPS+
Dodgers 3.19 ERA 1.16 WHIP 4.10 K/BB ratio 6.1 IP/GS .682 OPS 100 tOPS+ 90 sOPS+
Athletics 3.30 ERA 1.19 WHIP 2.74 K/BB ratio 6.04 IP/GS .665 OPS 107 tOPS+ 86 sOPS+

That Oakland has the lowest opponent OPS (raw and adjusted) of the three is actually very impressive considering the A's play in the American League and must contend with designated hitters rather than feeble-hitting pitchers. The Dodgers have a slight edge in ERA and WHIP, but since they're a National League team with a pitcher's haven for a home park that advantage must be discounted.

What's scary is that most of those numbers were compiled without Lester, Samardzija, and Hammel. Going forward, Oakland should be even better with a rotation that is quite literally overflowing with talent. In Lester and Sonny Gray the A's have a potent 1-2 punch with a pair of legit aces. Scott Kazmir and Samardzija--number ones on half the teams in baseball and strong number twos on the others--are mid-rotation guys in Oakland. The fifth starter is Hammel, who had a 2.98 ERA with the Cubs but has struggled since rejoining the American League.

Oakland's rotation is so loaded that there's no room for Tommy Milone or Jesse Chavez, both of whom excelled in the first half. Milone boasted  3.55 ERA and was 10-for-16 in quality starts before his demotion and subsequent trade following the Samardzija/Hammel acquisitions. With Lester on board, Chavez has been forced back to the bullpen despite strong numbers--3.44 ERA, 3.66 FIP and 2.90 K/BB ratio--in his first season as a regular starting pitcher. With Chavez having proved himself in the rotation and available to return should injury strike, Oakland has more than enough depth to last the next three months.

And with such a stacked rotation, the A's are well-positioned to hold off the Angels down the stretch and cinch their third straight division title. All those arms will make for a formidable opponent come October, when Bob Melvin can shorten the rotation and rely on his four excellent starters to get him through the postseason. Healthy and effective starting pitching is key to surviving a long regular season, but in short playoff series having elite starters is essential. Thanks to Billy Beane's wheeling and dealing, the A's now have four of them.

It's always impossible to predict who will emerge from the postseason crapshoot victorious, but the A's are as good a bet as any. 25 years removed from their most recent World Series title, they have the arms to win it all. Considering the talent Beane gave up to acquire them, they better.