Toronto Trades for Donaldson

Oakland unloaded its best player at the worst possible time (SFGate)

When you have not just the best third-baseman in baseball, but the sport's second most valuable position player over the past two years behind the one and only Mike Trout, and you have him under team control for four more years, and he's still only 29 years old, you'd be crazy to trade him, right? Especially when you're at a point on the win curve where one win could mean the difference between making the playoffs and playing golf in October. Unless you get so much in return that the trade is a can't miss opportunity, you thank your lucky stars that your late-blooming third-sacker unexpectedly evolved into one of the best all-around players in the game and wave him good bye when he hits the open market at 33.

For the Oakland A's to justify trading Josh Donaldson, their All-Star third baseman who finished fourth in the 2013 AL MVP race and eighth last year, they clearly needed to win such a trade. And while they're getting a four-for-one in their latest deal with the Toronto Blue Jays, I think they're probably looking at a loss, at least in the near future. The best they can hope for is a push.

The main piece Oakland gets in return for their All-Star third baseman is Brett Lawrie, who looks like a lost cause at this stage in his career. Since bursting onto the scene in 2011 with a .293/.373/.580 slash line, Lawrie's turned in three straight subpar, injury-plagued seasons. He's batted just .261/.316/.406 over the past three years with 34 home runs and 5.4 fWAR in 302 games, failing to deliver on the enormous promise he displayed as a rookie that drew comparisons to Ryan Braun. The soon-to-be 25 year-old is still young enough that an Alex Gordon or Donaldson-esque breakout might be looming, but right now there's not much to suggest such a transformation is coming. Moving from the Rogers Center to Oakland's Colisieum, a hitter's nightmare, won't help speed that process along.

The best-case scenario is that Lawrie puts it all together and becomes as good as Donaldson (it's pretty much impossible to be better), but even if he does the A's will only control him for three years rather than the four they had left with Donaldson. Granted, one player's age 25-27 seasons are more appealing than another's age 29-32 years, but Donaldson's already a finished product. Lawrie's still a project. Think of it this way; would you rather have the next three years of Jackie Bradley, Jr. (25 next year) or four more years of Andrew McCutchen (28)? Or how about Lawrie versus Evan Longoria (29)?

Lawrie's not Donaldson, and he's probably never going to be Donaldson because Gold Glove-caliber defenders with 30-homer pop are exceptionally rare these days. But the A's got more than Lawrie; they got three other players as well, all prospects. The most promising of those is Franklin Barreto, an 18 year-old shortstop who hit well in low-A ball last year (.399 wOBA, 141 wRC+ with 29 steals in 73 games). Barreto, Toronto's No. 5 prospect per Baseball America, could be something special, but he also won't be major league ready for at least a few more years. I'd feel a lot better about this deal for the A's if he becomes their franchise shortstop, but right now that's far from guaranteed.

The other two prospects are arms, neither of whom were considered among Toronto's 10 best prospects. One is lefty Sean Nolin, who's about to turn 25 but has only pitched one game in each of his two major league seasons. Even so, his solid minor league track record (3.06 ERA) suggests he's major league ready and could crack Oakland's rotation next year. Ditto Kendall Graveman, a righty and the other pitching prospect in this deal. Graveman's going to be 24 next year but shot up through Toronto's farm system, making his major league debut little more than a year after being drafted. He dominated at every minor league level last year with a 0.34 ERA at A ball, 2.23 in high-A, 1.50 at Double-A, and 1.88 in Triple-A. Just as playing in Oakland will hurt Lawrie, pitching there should only help Nolin and Graveman's development.

Lawrie leaves a lot to be desired (CBC Canada)

Looking at the swap from Oakland's perspective, my concern has more to do with the timing of it than what the A's got in return. Lawrie's an everyday third baseman: not a great one, but a major league regular at the very least. Barreto's the shortstop of the future, and on top of that Oakland nets a pair of major league ready arms to bolster its staff. If the A's were in rebuilding mode, this would be a fantastic move for them.

Only the A's are in no position to rebuild coming off last season's soul-crushing wild card game defeat. They were the best team in baseball in last year's first half, for crying out loud, and still mortgaged their future to acquire Jason Hammel and Jeff Samardzija from the Cubs (and then traded Yoenis Cespedes for Jon Lester and Jonny Gomes). You can't blame Billy Beane for wanting to restock the farm system a bit, but with that roster he should be focused on winning now, not five years from now. When you're on the cusp of your first World Series title since 1989, you don't trade your best player unless you're getting someone of similar value in return. Lawrie, Nolin, and Graveman combined probably won't provide as many wins as Donaldson will for the Blue Jays next year (Steamer says they'll produce 3.9 fWAR to Donaldson's 5.6 in 2015), and they take up three roster spots to Donaldson's one. Seven win players are incredibly rare and worth their weight in gold. Beane was lucky enough to have one, then crazy to trade him.

If you're the Blue Jays, though, you have to be excited with how your team's looking these days. Adding Donaldson to a lineup that already featured Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Reyes, and the recently acquired Russell Martin gives Toronto one of the best offenses in baseball (after they ranked fourth in runs and second in OPS among American League teams last year). The rotation isn't as formidable, but projects to be solid nonetheless. When you have a lineup like that, you can win plenty of games without top-shelf starting pitching.

Toronto's trying to be the top dog in an unstable AL East, and you have to commend the Jays for going for it. They know the time to win is now, with Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay all reeling from disappointing seasons, and they're doing all they can to end what is now the longest playoff drought in the four major American sports. Toronto's last two seasons have yielded disappointing results, but that hasn't stopped them from trusting their talent and doubling down on a championship-caliber core.

The A's could learn a thing or two.

Lester Lights Out

Lester's been at the top of his game since arriving in Oakland (CBS)

The Oakland A's have been the subject of much derision lately because of their second half slide, falling from the top of their division to 10.5 games back of the Angels in six weeks. The A's have all but stopped hitting, and a lot of the blame for that has been laid at the feet of Billy Beane, who traded cleanup hitter and offensive force Yoenis Cespedes to Boston for Jon Lester and Jonny Gomes. Cespedes has mashed with the Sox, while Gomes's struggles have followed him out west (no homers and .540 OPS with Oakland).

But saying the trade made Oakland worse would be a fallacy. Lester and Gomes combined have given the A's 1.6 wins above replacement in their brief time with the club, while Cespedes has provided Boston with 1.2. Acknowledging that narrow difference is too negligible to say this trade came out in Oakland's favor with any certainty, at the very least it's been even.

Because while Gomes has given the A's nothing of value, Lester's stepped up to become the undisputed ace of his new team. As good as Lester was with Boston during the first half, he's been even more dominant with Oakland. In his 10 starts with the A's, all quality, he's delivered 69 and 2/3 innings (almost seven innings per turn) of 2.20 ERA-ball. Opponents have batted just /226/.272/.354 against him during that time, which explains how he's compiled a 1.06 WHIP since he came over to Oakland. He's also maintained a nifty strikeout to walk ratio of 64/16 (4/1) and posted an average GameScore of 63.

Lester's pitched as well as advertised, and the A's have gone 7-3 in his starts. It's hardly his fault that Oakland's lineup went into hibernation, or that Scott Kazmir and Sonny Gray have fallen off, or that the bullpen's been an absolute mess lately. Lester can only impact the team every five days, and he's done an excellent job of putting them in position to win. He's been money down the stretch, doing everything in his power to stop Oakland's slide even as the majority of his teammates have struggled.

He's been at the center of an epic collapse before, but if it happens again he's made damn sure well that he won't be the one to blame.

The A's Amazing Rotation

A proven big-game pitcher, Lester will be central to Oakland's success

Going into this season, the two-time defending AL West champs appeared to have one of baseball's best rotations on paper. Then A.J. Griffin and Jarrod Parker, who together threw 397 innings of 3.90 ERA ball for Oakland in 2013, were lost for the season to Tommy John surgery before either one threw a pitch. Having 40 percent of the starting rotation evaporate before Opening Day would cripple most teams, but not the A's.

Through the Fourth of July, more than halfway through the season, Oakland was sporting the best record in baseball largely because of their pitching staff--the stingiest in the league. Then they shipped out a couple of top prospects to the Cubs for Jason Hammel and Jeff Samardzija, the former a quality arm and the latter a smoke-throwing borderline ace. The midseason additions fortified Oakland's already strong staff, making a great rotation even better.

Now, after dealing Yoenis Cespedes for Jon Lester and Jonny Gomes, Oakland's rotation looks unbeatable. It has to be considered one of if not the best in baseball alongside the collection of aces in Los Angeles, where Clayton Kershaw, Zack Grienke, Josh Beckett, Dan Haren and Hyun-jin Ryu deal for the Dodgers, and now Detroit, which on the same day added David Price to a staff already headed by Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez and Rick Porcello. What Oakland's rotation lacks in flashy names and hardware--the Tigers own the past three AL Cy Young winners and the Dodgers boast a pair in Kershaw and Greinke--they make up for in superior results. Check it out:

Tigers 3.82 ERA 1.26 WHIP 2.84 K/BB ratio 6.24 IP/GS .707 OPS 95 tOPS+ 97 sOPS+
Dodgers 3.19 ERA 1.16 WHIP 4.10 K/BB ratio 6.1 IP/GS .682 OPS 100 tOPS+ 90 sOPS+
Athletics 3.30 ERA 1.19 WHIP 2.74 K/BB ratio 6.04 IP/GS .665 OPS 107 tOPS+ 86 sOPS+

That Oakland has the lowest opponent OPS (raw and adjusted) of the three is actually very impressive considering the A's play in the American League and must contend with designated hitters rather than feeble-hitting pitchers. The Dodgers have a slight edge in ERA and WHIP, but since they're a National League team with a pitcher's haven for a home park that advantage must be discounted.

What's scary is that most of those numbers were compiled without Lester, Samardzija, and Hammel. Going forward, Oakland should be even better with a rotation that is quite literally overflowing with talent. In Lester and Sonny Gray the A's have a potent 1-2 punch with a pair of legit aces. Scott Kazmir and Samardzija--number ones on half the teams in baseball and strong number twos on the others--are mid-rotation guys in Oakland. The fifth starter is Hammel, who had a 2.98 ERA with the Cubs but has struggled since rejoining the American League.

Oakland's rotation is so loaded that there's no room for Tommy Milone or Jesse Chavez, both of whom excelled in the first half. Milone boasted  3.55 ERA and was 10-for-16 in quality starts before his demotion and subsequent trade following the Samardzija/Hammel acquisitions. With Lester on board, Chavez has been forced back to the bullpen despite strong numbers--3.44 ERA, 3.66 FIP and 2.90 K/BB ratio--in his first season as a regular starting pitcher. With Chavez having proved himself in the rotation and available to return should injury strike, Oakland has more than enough depth to last the next three months.

And with such a stacked rotation, the A's are well-positioned to hold off the Angels down the stretch and cinch their third straight division title. All those arms will make for a formidable opponent come October, when Bob Melvin can shorten the rotation and rely on his four excellent starters to get him through the postseason. Healthy and effective starting pitching is key to surviving a long regular season, but in short playoff series having elite starters is essential. Thanks to Billy Beane's wheeling and dealing, the A's now have four of them.

It's always impossible to predict who will emerge from the postseason crapshoot victorious, but the A's are as good a bet as any. 25 years removed from their most recent World Series title, they have the arms to win it all. Considering the talent Beane gave up to acquire them, they better.

Moneyball Revisited

With the Oakland A's riding an eight game winning streak and poised to make the playoffs for the first time since 2006 (coolstandings.com gives them an 85.9 percent chance of reaching the postseason), I felt like taking a look back at Oakland's 2002 squad that was the focus of the Michael Lewis book and Oscar nominated film.

Interestingly, there are several parallels between the two teams.  Both underwent major personnel changes during the previous offseason; the '02 squad lost Jason Isringhausen, Jason Giambi and Johnny Damon to free agency, while the current version traded away Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill, Guillermo Moscoso and Andrew Bailey.  Both teams started slow and appeared to be out of the race by Memorial Day, but went on furious summer rampages to leap back into contention by Labor Day.  Neither team was anything special offensively, and instead relied on top notch pitching to survive the grueling baseball season.

And while years of roster turnover have ensured that no players remain from that fabled '02 team, the man who constructed it--General Manager Billy Beane--is still there, trying to bring a World Series championship to Oakland for the first time since Mark McGwire, Jose Canseco, Rickey Henderson and Dennis Eckersley raised the trophy in 1989.

Here are some interesting facts about the Moneyball team:

• The Athletics began the year with a payroll just shy of $40 million.  Only the cash-strapped Expos and Devil Rays spent less money.  On the bright side, Oakland's payroll spiked almost $6 million from Opening Day, 2001, representing an 18 percent boost.
• Oakland won 103 games after winning 102 the previous year, becoming the first Athletics team with consecutive 100 win seasons since the 1929-'31 dynasty days of Jimmie Foxx, Al Simmons, Mickey Cochrane, and Lefty Grove.
• Oakland outperformed their expected W-L record by seven games.
• Won one more game than the '01 squad despite scoring 84 fewer runs and giving up nine additional runs.
• Were six games under .500 (20-26) and in last place as late as May 23rd. From that point forward they went 83-33, winning at an almost inhuman .716 pace.  I'm guessing the AL record 20 game winning streak probably played a small part in that surge.
• The A's ranked eighth among the fourteen AL teams in attendance.  No surprise there; they haven't finishEd Higher than seventh in 20 years.  
• 54-27 record at home, 49-32 on the road.
• Dominated their National League foes by going 16-2 during interleague play and outscoring opponents 103-52.
• Oakland produced the AL MVP (Miguel Tejada) and AL Cy Young (Barry Zito), the first time an American League team had both award winners since the 1993 Chicago White Sox (Frank Thomas and Jack McDowell).  It has since been achieved by the 2006 Minnesota Twins (Justin Morneau and Johan Santana) and last year's Detroit Tigers (Justin Verlander won both).
• Tejada and Zito were the team's only All-Star representatives.  Both were first time All-Stars.
• Eric Chavez was the only member to receive a Gold Glove award (his second).  He was also the only one to win a Silver Slugger (his first and only).
• Zito led the team in bWAR, with 6.8.  He would go on to lead the team again with 4.1 in 2006, his contract year, before inking a seven year, $126 million deal with the San Francisco Giants.  In the six seasons since he has been worth a combined 3.7 bWAR.
• Tejada and Terrence Long played in all 162 games.  The tandem appeared in all 162 the year before, too.
• The A's featured an average offensive attack that failed to lead the American League in any hitting categories.  Their pitching staff, on the other hand, was dominant and paced the AL in wins, ERA, shutouts, and fewest home runs allowed.
• Although the Coliseum is a notorious pitcher's park, the A's posted an .813 OPS there compared to .731 everywhere else.
• Beane's elder free agent pickups Scott Hatteberg and David Justice walked more than they struck out, the only hitters with at least 15 plate appearances to do so.
• What a left side of the infield! Tejada and Chavez both slugged 34 home runs (tied for team lead), knocked in more than 100 and posted nearly identical OPS numbers, with Tejada's .861 barely edging out Chavy's .860 mark.  In recent years, perhaps the only better SS-3B combo has been Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter.
• The Big Three of Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito combined to go 57-21 with  3.05 ERA in 675 quality innings.
• Closer Billy Koch received MVP consideration after going 11-4 with a 3.27 ERA and 44 saves.  His 84 appearances led the American League and his 79 games finished were tops among all big league pitchers.
• Despite guiding the A's to back-to-back 100 win seasons and three consecutive playoff appearances, skipper Art Howe was replaced by Ken Macha in the offseason.
• Although he was met with initial resistance to his baseball philosophy, Beane and his ideas were ultimately embraced by the team on the field.  The A's finished third in walks and fifth in OBP.  They did not take chances on the basepaths (only 27 stolen base attempts) and did not give away outs, either, with just 20 sacrifice hits all year.
• Forgotten players from the team include Aaron Harang, Cory Lidle, Ted Lilly, Eric Byrnes, Ray Durham, Ramon Hernandez, Mark Ellis, and Carlos Pena

The A's won 103 regular season games but were eliminated by Minnesota in the ALDS 

Oakland On a Roll

I admit it; I was wrong.

Back during the dark days of February, when I put together my 2012 season projections, I awarded the Oakland Athletics last place in the American League West. 

I won't make you go back into the archives and dig it up.  On February 22nd I stated, in no uncertain terms, that "Oakland has given away all its current talent and is poised to run away with last place." I didn't stop there, either.  I compared them to the Houston Astros, projected them to lose 98 games and deemed Cuban import Yoenis Cespedes to be a "surefire bust" in his hyped MLB debut.

Whoops.

But hindisght is 20/20.  In retrospect, I was clearly being too harsh on them.  My pessimistic prediction resembled more of a worst case scenario, but still accurately reflected how little I thought ot them at the time.  Surely I wasn't the only one lacking faith in them; six months ago, who in their right mind believed these A's would be leading the AL Wild Card at the end of August, 17 games above .500 with the third best record in the American League? If everything broke right, they might win more games than they lost for the first time since 2006.  Maybe. But nobody, and I mean nobody, believed they had this type of season in them. Not even the most optimistic and enthusiastic Athletics fans could have seen their team's magical midseason run coming.

Not in their wildest dreams.

Because six months ago, Oakland's front office readily admitted that they had gone into rebuilding mode, and teams in that state rarely, if ever, contend right away.  Just ask the Houston Astros.  Or the Chicago Cubs.  Rebuilding typically means "don't expect us to make the playoffs anytime soon, but stick with us.  All we need is some rain, sunshine, and a little bit of luck, hopefully we'll be good a few years from now."  Sacrificing the present for the future.  It sucks, but almost every team has to go through it at some point (even the Red Sox and Phillies, to some degree) unless you're the Yankees and have enough money to field an All-Star team every year.

But the Oakland A's are not the New York Yankees.  In fact, they're on completely opposite ends of the spectrum, at least as far as money is concerned.  The Yanks have been outspending everyone else for years and began the season with a payroll scraping $200 million and a roster loaded with marquee talent.  The A's, on the other hand, have the lowest payroll in the American League with a bottom line of 55 million dollars and change.  So the A's are spending 28 cents for every dollar New York pours into their loaded roster, and yet their records are nearly identical.

Billy Beane has done it again.

In the wake of another disappointing season, Beane overhauled the roster last winter. He blew up the starting rotation by flipping starters Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill and Guillermo Moscoso to the National League, shipped Ryan Sweeney and 2009 AL Rookie of the Year Andrew Bailey to Boston, and let his most productive hitter--Josh Willingham--leave via free agency.  In return he bolstered the farm system and netted a treasure chest of major league ready talent that has formed the nucleus of this year's ballclub.  Beane received rookies Jarrod Parker and Ryan Cook for Cahill, got Tommy Milone and top pitching prospect A.J. Cole for Gonzalez, and hit the jackpot with Josh Reddick (4.6 bWAR) in the Bailey/Sweeney trade.  He also scored incredible bargains with free agent signings Jonny Gomes (one-year, $1 million dollars, and an .842 OPS), Brandon Moss (.874 OPS) and Big Fat Bartolo Colon (one-year, $2 million dollars for an above average starting pitcher).

It was classic Billy Beane; picking people's pockets and finding cheap, undervalued talent on the free agent market.  Moneyballs philosophies at their finest.  And while his shoestring budget prevented him from making offers to Jose Reyes, C.J. Wilson, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder he did splurge on raw, untested Yoenis Cespedes. Beane invested four years and 36 million dollars on the coveted Cuban outfielder, and so far it looks like money well spent.  His prodigious power manifested itself immediately, and after going through an adjustment period in the spring the freshman quickly developed into a tremendous hitter.  He's maintained his aggressive approach at the plate while simultaneously cutting down on his strikeouts, and is trading power for contact.  No longer swinging from his heels every time up, Cespedes has ditched the feast-or-famine reputation he built in April and has provided steady production all summer long.  Over the past three months he's batted .327/.384/.539, a stat line reminiscent of fellow free-swinger Vladimir Guerrero.  If not for Mike Trout's historic rookie campaign, Cespedes would likely be the favorite to take home AL Rookie of the Year honors despite spending most of May on the Disabled List and missing another two weeks in June.  Provided that he can stay healthy, the 26 year-old still has room to grow and seems poised for several more big seasons in an Oakland uniform.

As expected, it took awhile for the youngsters to hit their stride as the Athletics started slow out of the gate.  Oakland dropped three of four to the Mariners to open the season and treaded water early on. They hovered  around .500 through the season's first quarter before losing nine in a row from May 22nd through June 1st.  Their already slumbering bats went into hibernation, scoring just a dozen runs over that horrendous stretch and coming up empty four times (and this was not an isolated dry spell, either; during their first 54 games, exactly one-third of a season, the A's offense got blanked eleven times and averaged three runs per game).  On June 10th they bottomed out; Arizona swept them, their record plunged to 26-35 and they found themselves in last place. That explains why this team wasn't even considered for my surprise contenders post, published a few days prior.  All signs pointed to another dull summer of baseball for Oakland and their fans, and unfortunately football season was still three months away.

But with interleague play in full swing, the A's took advantage of the inferior NL competition.  They swept the Rockies, took two of three from the Padres, and then swept the Dodgers.  No one knew it at the time, but they were off and running, and when interleague play ended, they kept winning.  The Athletics finished the first half on a high note, climbing back up to .500 after going 6-1 in the week leading up to the All-Star Break.  They picked up where they left off after the Midsummer Classic by sweeping the Twins in Minnesota to kick off the second half.  The  A's were baseball's hottest team, in the midst of a sizzling four week stretch that saw them win 18 of 21 games from July 1st through the 28th. This surge was headlined by a jaw-dropping four game sweep of the Yankees from 7/19-7/22 in which the plucky underdogs prevailed by one run each time.

Oakland finally cooled off in the first two weeks of August, but didn't go away. Instead, they rattled off another remarkable run by going 13-2 over their past 15.  Instead of wearing down during the dog days of August, they've gained strength and become an uppstoppable late summer hurricane.  Brett Anderson has been magnificent since returning from Tommy John surgery and  A.J. Griffin comes back today.  Both hurlers arrived just in time for the crucial playoff push and will supply fresh arms for a rotation that just lost Colon to a positive drug test.

But they must contribute.  Skipper Bob Melvin is counting on his pitchers to hold up over the next month, because if they falter the offense doesn't have the firepower to outslug their opponents.  The anemic A's rate second to last in both batting average and on-base percentage, third to last in OPS and fourth to last in runs scored among AL teams.  The infield deserves the majority of the blame for this collective ineptitude.  Look at how each position has fared thus far in 2012:

C   .202/.257/.306
1B .231/.331/.451
2B .220/.300/.305
3B .220/.270/.387
SS  .191/.260/.291

Ouch. Catcher Kurt Suzuki (since traded to the Nationals) hit one home run in 278 plate appearances with a comically bad 49 OPS+.  Shortstop Cliff Pennington was just as ineffective with a 54 OPS+, necessitating a late summer trade for Stephen Drew (who looks headed down the same path of injury prone disappointment traveled by big brother J.D. Drew). Jemile Weeks has managed to hit even worse than his older brother Rickie Weeks by batting .220 with no power.  Brandon Inge had a big week in early May (overshadowed by Josh Hamilton's home run exploits) but has since returned to playing like, well, Brandon Inge.  Oakland's first basemen, mostly Moss, Chris Carter and Daric Barton, have at least managed to pop 25 home runs, more than Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira and Adrian Gonzalez.

So with the infield hitting .213/.284/.347 as a whole, it's a miracle this team doesn't get shutout three times a week.  Thankfully the outfield is batting a much more potent .267/.334/.470, mainly because Cespedes (.864 OPS) and Reddick (28 home runs) have emerged as legitimate middle of the order threats. The revolving door of Designated Hitters has chipped in a solid .777 OPS as well.  There's just enough talent here to outproduce the Seattle Mariners. Overall, the lineup compensates for its glaring weaknesses by manufacturing runs.  They rank third in walks, fifth in steals, and rise to the occasion with timely hitting; as a team their OPS is .685 when the bases are empty, .799 with runners in scoring position, and pinch-hitters are batting .306/.408/.516--essentially Edgar Martinez's career triple slash stats.  It's also worth noting that the offense has ramped it up in the second half with a .778 OPS, more than 100 points higher than its .667 first half mark, and has averaged nearly five runs per game since the beginning of June.

Still, it's hardly a surprise that the key to their success has been run prevention.  Oakland's pitching staff, led by a strong rotation and deep bullpen, ranks second in the American League in ERA, behind only the Tampa Bay Rays.  The starters have thrived despite a 6.2 K/9 rate because they limit walks and home runs.  The relief corps doesn't feature a shutdown closer but has still thrived, holding opponents to a .208 batting average and maintaining a 2.82 ERA.  The defense is decent, too.  Reddick is the best defensive rightfielder in the league (better, even, than Ichiro Suzuki) with Inge, Pennington and Coco Crisp also rating as plus defenders at key positions.  Their fielding prowess is somewhat negated by atrocious glovework from Cespedes and Weeks, but every team has its share of defensive liabilities.  All in all, Billy Beane has built a balanced team.

While the A's have exceeded any reasonable expectation, their 74-57 Pythagorean record is identical to their real record, an indication their success is not a fluke.  The sad thing is, even with all this winning the Coliseum is still half full on most nights.  Attendance has jumped for the third consecutive year but only 20,348 fans show up for the typical game (seating capacity is 35,067), even with Oakland in the thick of a pennant race.  As recently as August 20th there were little more than 10,000 on hand for a series opener against the Twins.  Oakland ranks second to last among AL teams in attendance--only the Tampa Bay Rays draw fewer fans--and haven't finishEd Higher than twelfth since 2005.  No star power and constant roster turnover have taken their tolls, but the biggest culprit remains the Coliseum itself.  Even when you put a winning product on the field, it's not easy to put a lot of butts in the seats when the park around that field is a soulless, carvernous football stadium pushing 50 years old.  If winning baseball games isn't enough, then a new state of the art stadium in San Jose seems to be the only solution.

But can the A's keep winning?  After bludgeoning Boston 20-2 last night, coolstandings.com gives them an 83.3 percent chance of making the playoffs, better than every team not named the Yankees or Rangers, but a postseason berth is far from secure.  After this series with the Red Sox their September schedule gets brutal.  Seven games against the Angels, seven with the Rangers, three in Detroit, three versus the Orioles, and three more in New York.  That's 23 games against top teams, the cream of the American League crop.  And with Seattle on a second half roll of their own (28-17 dating back to July 16th), those six matchups against the Mariners don't look as appetizing as they did a few months ago.

When the going gets tough, the tough get going. We're going to find out what this Oakland team is made of in September, whether they are contenders or pretenders.  If the pitching holds steady and the offense doesn't revert to its April/May level of futility, they should be fine.  But if their young pitchers hit the wall and the bats cool off, they're going to get eaten alive.

The last time I looked into my crystal ball, I couldn't have been more wrong.  Like most people, I don't handle failure well.  So this time around, I'm going to keep my mouth shut