2015 NL Silver Slugger Review

Harper won his first of what will likely be many Silver Sluggers (CBS Washington)

The National League did a much better job of selecting its Silver Sluggers than the American League did. There was but one selection I disagreed with, and only by the slimmest of margins.

C Buster Posey

Posey was an easy choice after leading the position in the triple slash stats as well as wOBA (.363) and wRC+ (138). His 95 RBI were also tops among catchers.

1B Paul Goldschmidt

Really tough call here between Goldy and Joey Votto. Goldschmidt hit for a little more power, but Votto reached base at a higher rate than anyone besides Bryce Harper. Their OPSes were within five points of each other, but Votto came out slightly ahead in wRC+ (172 to 164) and wOBA (.427 to .418). So as great as Goldschmidt was, Votto was just a hair better.

2B Dee Gordon

Gordon's not a traditional Silver Slugger recipient in that he amassed just four homers and 46 RBI, but he was still the best-hitting second baseman in a weak NL field (the only other leaguemate worthy of consideration was Daniel Murphy). His 205 hits and 58 steals led the majors while his .333 batting average paced the NL--numbers that would make Ichiro Suzuki smile.

3B Nolan Arenado

At the start of the year, who would have guessed that Arenado would lead the loop in home runs, the majors in RBI and total bases, and his position in slugging? I didn't see any of those things coming true, let alone all of them, and I'm sure you didn't, either. As long as he sticks around in Colorado, he'll probably have several more years like this.

SS Brandon Crawford

Crawford was one of the few National League shortstops who was an asset with the stick this year, taking advantage of Troy Tulowitzki switching leagues and a down year by Ian Desmond to cop his first (and probably only) Silver Slugger. His 117 wRC+ was the highest by a shortstop who qualified for the batting title, and his 21 home runs were exceeded only by Carlos Correa at the position. With a stronger finish Jhonny Peralta would have won, but his second half fade (one homer and a .604 OPS after August 1st) cost him what would have been his first Silver Slugger.

OF Bryce Harper

The deserving NL MVP was an obvious choice after leading the world in OBP (.460), slugging (.649), OPS (1.109), and OPS+ (195), not to mention the National League in runs (118) and homers (42).

OF Andrew McCutchen

'Cutch earned his fourth straight Silver Slugger, recovering from a slow start to bat .292/.401/.488 (146 wRC+) with 23 homers and 96 RBI.

OF Carlos Gonzalez

CarGo terrorized NL pitching in the second half, cranking 30 homers after Independence Day en route to his first 40-homer season. That monster finish helped him to his best season and first Silver Slugger since his 2010 breakthrough.

P Madison Bumgarner

Few pitchers help their own cause more than Bumgarner, who earned his second straight silver bat after clubbing five home runs in just 77 official at-bats. His .247/.275/.468 batting line would be fine for an outfielder, much less a starting pitcher.

2015 AL Silver Sluggers Review

Cabrera copped his sixth career Silver Slugger, but did he deserve it? (PanAmerican World)

November is MLB awards season, and last week saw some hardware handed out in the form of Gold Gloves and Silver Sluggers. Here is my take on the latter, and whether I thought the winners were truly deserving.

C Brian McCann

McCann bounced back after posting a career-low .692 OPS in his first year with the Yankees, leading all catchers with 26 home runs and 94 RBI and improving his OPS to .756.

In spite of his impressive power totals, I think McCann was probably the third-best hitting catcher in the American League this year. Stephen Vogt and Russell Martin both had a higher OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ than McCann in about equal playing time. They also played in less favorable parks for hitters but were better in all three rate stats.

Vogt and Martin are almost impossible to separate; Vogt got on base a little more while Martin hit for more power. When two players are so close I like to compare their road splits to help eliminate home field advantages, and by that method Vogt comes out way ahead. His numbers, not surprisingly, were severely hampered by playing in Oakland, as he had 13 homers and an .830 OPS on the road compared to five and a ,740 OPS at home. Martin, on the other hand, got a considerable boost from the Rogers Centre, where he launched 13 of his 23 homers and posted an .808 OPS compared to .768 everywhere else. So while Martin's overall numbers are slightly better, Vogt's are undoubtedly more impressive.

1B Miguel Cabrera

Cabrera had another monster year at the plate, continuing his reign as arguably the best hitter in baseball by leading the bigs in batting (.338) and the AL in OBP (.440). He also posted a .413 wOBA and 165 wRC+, tops among American League first basemen. He missed 43 games, though, so his counting numbers were his worst since his rookie year. He failed to reach 25 homers and 100 RBI for the first time since 2003, and just barely qualified for the batting crown.

His only serious competition in the AL came from Chris Davis, who crushed a major league best 47 homers to go along with 117 RBI and 322 total bases. Davis played all but two games, making up most of the ground between him and Cabrera in their rate stats (Davis hit .262/,361/.562, meaning his OPS was 51 points below Cabrera's despite Camden Yards being a much better park for hitters than Comerica). It's close, but Cabrera was so much better when he did play that I think he's the proper call.

2B Jose Altuve

Houston's diminutive second baseman had another big season, leading the loop in hits and steals for the second year in a row while batting .313/.353/.459 (120 wRC+). He also improved in the power department by smacking 15 home runs--more than double his previous career high--and driving in 66 runs--also a personal best. While Jason Kipnis was actually a bit better in terms of rate stats, Altuve's edge in playing time (154 games to 141 for Kipnis) and plate appearances (Altuve accumulated 48 more) is enough to make up the difference.

Altuve won his second straight Silver Slugger, topping 200 hits again (Fox Sports)

3B Josh Donaldson

Manny Machado had a great year, but none of the third-sackers in baseball could hold a candle to the one Donaldson just had. He led the position in pretty much every meaningful statistic, a dominant showing that will likely earn him AL MVP honors over Mike Trout. Donaldson led the majors in runs (122) and the league in RBI (123), total bases (352), and extra base hits, helping Toronto end its 22-year postseason drought.

SS Xander Bogaerts

Wire-to-wire, Bogaerts was the best-hitting shortstop in the American League this year. The 22 year-old rebounded from a horrendous rookie year to bat .320/.355/.421 with 196 hits, including 35 doubles. Lots of things went wrong in Boston this year, but Bogaerts wasn't one of them.

There were two other shortstops, however--both rookies--who were much better on a per-game and per at-bat basis. Houston's Carlos Correa led all shortstops in home runs with 22 despite not making his major league debut until June 8th. And though he batted 41 points lower than Bogaerts, his OBP was nearly as strong and his slugging was over 90 points higher. So while Bogaerts played 156 games to Correa's 99, Correa nearly doubled his offensive value.

Francisco Lindor, like Correa, was also a more valuable offensive player despite appearing in just 99 games. He had almost the same average and OBP as Bogaerts while slugging 61 points higher--all while playing in a much tougher park for hitters.

I would have voted for Correa, who was clearly the best-hitting shortstop in baseball this year, but I can understand why the huge disadvantage in playing time (Bogaerts played all but six games) cost him.

OF Mike Trout

Another year, another Silver Slugger for Trout, who's won in all four of his full seasons. He was the best hitter in the American League this year, pacing the Junior Circuit in slugging, OPS, OPS+, runs created, wRC+, wOBA, total offense, and times on base. He deserves another MVP, too, but it looks like he'll go home empty-handed.

OF Nelson Cruz

Cruz was a no-brainer after batting .302/.369/.566 (158 wRC+) with 44 homers--amazing numbers for anyone but even more incredible considering he played half his games at Safeco. Among major league outfielders, only Trout and Bryce Harper had a better wOBA, wRC+, and more offensive value.

OF J.D. Martinez

Here's another place where I disagree. The third-best hitting outfielder in the American League was Jose Bautista, not Mr. Martinez. Their slugging percentages were within one point of each other, but Bautista's OBP was 33 points higher. Even after accounting for their ballparks, Bautista still holds a sizable edge in wRC+ (147 to 137) and wOBA (.389 to .372) in more plate appearances (666 to 657). There is no argument for Martinez over Bautista.

 Martinez received a silver bat that should have gone to Bautista (iSportsWeb)

DH Kendrys Morales

Morales proved to be a shrewd offseason pickup for Kansas City, enjoying his best season since his 2009 breakout with 41 doubles, 22 homers, 106 RBI, a 131 wRC+ and .364 wOBA. Morales was instrumental in helping the Royals win it all, pacing the team in pretty much every major offensive category and providing much-needed punch in a small-ball lineup. For his efforts, the 32 year-old was rewarded with his first Silver Slugger following his 10th big league season.

But while he may have been the best hitter on the World Series champion Royals, Morales was nowhere near the best-hitting DH this year. David Ortiz posted an OPS some 66 points higher, supplying 37 doubles, the same number of home runs and 108 RBI. His .379 wOBA and 138 wRC+ were both markedly better than Morales's totals, too. The same held true for Edwin Encarnacion, who was actually the most productive DH this year with 39 homers, 111 RBI, a 150 wRC+, and a .392 wOBA.

Then there were a couple of players who were just as deserving as Morales. One was Alex Rodriguez, who slugged 33 homers while posting a nearly identical wRC+ (129) and wOBA (.361). He was also the more valuable offensive player according to FanGraphs, providing roughly five additional runs thanks to his superior baserunning. There was also Prince Fielder, whose numbers (23 homers, 98 RBI, .305/.378/.463) were nearly identical to those of Morales. Even after accounting for the boost Fielder received from Arlington's hitting-friendly environment, his wRC+ (124) and wOBA (.360) suggest he was about dead even with Morales.

It's clear, at least to me, that Morales won largely because of his team's success. Had he still been playing for Seattle or Minnesota, few would have noticed his fine year. After comparing his numbers to other DHs across the league, there's just no way you can conclude he was the best.

Overall, not a great year for Silver Sluggers. The coaches and managers got the easy calls right, but whiffed on a few of the tougher ones. Then again, I'm sure I looked much more extensively into this than the people who actually voted.

Sox Season Recap

Boston faded fast after its strong start (Boston Globe)

With yesterday's 3-1 loss to the Cleveland Indians, the Red Sox rollercoaster ride is over. Though they finished last again, they only lost six more games than they won and were one of the best teams in baseball for roughly half the season.

Of course, that's half a season less than what was expected from them this year. Following an active offseason in which they added a pair of high-impact bats and remade their starting rotation, the Red Sox were pronounced favorites to win the American League. For the first month or so they looked the part, with newcomer (who was really an oldcomer) Hanley Ramirez anchoring the offense, Mookie Betts becoming a human highlight reel, and a healthy Dustin Pedroia playing his best baseball in years.

But as the calendar flipped to May, it became evident that Boston's biggest weakness entering the season--starting pitching--was not up to snuff. Despite outscoring every team save the Blue Jays through April 29th, the Sox still finished April with a negative run differential. The blame fell on pitching coach Juan Nieves, who lost his job barely a month into the season. It was around the same time that Ryan Hanigan, the team's backup catcher-turned starter after Christian Vazquez underwent season-ending Tommy John surgery, went down with a fractured right hand. The Sox were forced to promote rookie backstop Blake Swihart much sooner than anticipated, and sure enough the 23 year-old struggled. With a raw receiver and new pitching coach, Boston's cobbled-together rotation fell into disarray.

Or at least that's what the Red Sox will have you believe, pointing to Hanigan's injury as the primary reason for the team's summer swoon. In reality, Boston's pitching improved drastically in May and June, trimming a full run off its April ERA. It wasn't until the weather warmed and injuries cropped up that the staff hit the skids in July and August.

The problem, then, was Boston's hitting, which completely disappeared in May. After averaging 5.14 runs per game in April, the Sox managed a meager 2.83 in May. As a result they lost a bunch of close games--nine of their 19 losses in May were by two runs or less--games that could have been won with timely hitting. Incredibly, it took what was supposed to be the best offense in baseball more than two months to score in double digits, and of course when they did they still lost anyways.

And so the Red Sox, a first-place team for much of April, found themselves in last place at the start of June. That's where they stayed for the rest of the year, briefly climbing into third place during the season's final week before returning to the AL East basement. That's also when frustration began to boil over, as Wade Miley and John Farrell got into a dugout shouting match (which, take note Nationals, did not escalate into choking), several players were ejected for arguing with umpires, and Pablo Sandoval rode the bench for perusing Instagram during a mid-game bathroom break.

A seven-game losing streak in mid-June proved to be a major setback, one from which Boston spent the next month recovering. The Sox caught fire leading into the All-Star Break, closing to within five games of first and positioning themselves for a second-half run, especially if Ben Cherington could fetch Cole Hamels or Johnny Cueto at the trade deadline.

The Red Sox were unable to maintain that momentum following the Midsummer Classic, however, as the death knell sounded for them in late July once again. This time it was an eight-game losing streak that did them in, dropping them a dozen games below .500 and the same number out of first. They thus found themselves in the awkward position of being sellers at the deadline with nothing to sell, and so July 31st came and went without much excitement.

Boston's strong finish offers hope for 2016 (929 The Ticket)

But Boston being Boston, the Red Sox didn't stay dormant for long. August was the most tumultuous month of the season, beginning with Larry Lucchino's announcement that he was stepping down as team president and CEO. That was followed in short order by John Farrell's stunning cancer diagnosis, which was soon overshadowed by the news that Dave Dombrowski had been hired as president of baseball operations and that Ben Cherington, general manager of four years, resigned after 16 years in the organization.

The most cruel blow to Red Sox fans, at least, was the departure of beloved NESN play-by-play man Don Orsillo, whose contract was not renewed for a 16th season with the team. Orsillo had not become a worse announcer, but the team he called games for was getting worse by the day. NESN wanted to re-engergize the broadcasts, and since they can't fix the Red Sox they figured it was time for some fresh blood up in the booth. Dave O'Brien--Orsillo's replacement--is great, but he'll never be Don (though Dave and Jerry does have a nice ring to it).

Lost amidst all the controversy off the field was that on the field, the Red Sox were turning their season around. All of the sudden everyone was hitting, even Jackie Bradley, Jr., and the pitching had finally settled down. Boston quietly enjoyed its best month of the season in August, only to play even better in September, which concluded with a season-high six-game win streak. From July 29th on Boston was the fourth-best team in the American League, winning nearly 60 percent of its games.

So for three months out of the year, the Red Sox were the team everyone expected them to be. During the three months in between, however, they were 13 games below .500. It was an incredibly frustrating and disappointing season to be sure, but there were lots of positive signs, especially over those final two months. Rather than play out the string, the Sox played their best baseball of the year.

If nothing else, Boston's strong finish proved Dombrowski has a strong foundation for his 2016 club in place. He has young, exceptional talent up the middle in Swihart, Pedroia, Betts/Btadley, and Xander Bogaerts. Young guns Henry Owens and Eduardo Rodriguez should be mainstays in the rotation for years to come, Joe Kelly pitched much better after being demoted to Pawtucket, and Rick Porcello's second half  (3.58 ERA after Independence Day) suggests he may live up to his fat contract after all. David Ortiz remained one of the best hitters in the game at 39, and whatever negative regression he endures next year will likely be offset by positive regression from Ramirez and Sandoval--two of the worst everyday players this year. Farrell and loyal bench coach Torey Lovullo will return, providing continuity in the dugout.

That's a good start, but expect another busy winter for Boston. The Sox need to overhaul their bullpen and desperately need more starting pitching, particularly the ace that has eluded them since they traded Jon Lester two summers ago (hello, David Price?). They also have to find a new left fielder with Ramirez moving to first base, although Travis Shaw deserves an extended look after his Will Middlebrooks-esque debut. They still have to figure out what on earth they want to do with Rusney Castillo as well as their surplus of catchers. If Bradley's batting woes return next year and Betts moves back to center, they'll need a right fielder, too.

After going worst-to-first in 2013, the Red Sox were unable to repeat the trick in 2015. With another aggressive offseason and the right pieces to complement their nucleus, perhaps they will in 2016.

Bold Predictions Busts

Where did we go wrong, Prince? (RangersBlog)

With the 2014 baseball season in the rearview mirror, I can finally take a look back at how my 14 bold predictions for the year panned out (I'll give you a hint: they didn't).

1. Prince Fielder hits 40 home runs: WRONG
I thought the move to Texas would help restore some of Fielder's lost power. Instead, he got hurt for the first time in his career and was shut down in late May after going deep just three times. Yep, three.

2. The Yankees finish last: WRONG
No way this was happening given the ungodly amount of money New York spent last winter. They disappointed with 84 wins, but that was still enough to place second in the AL East.

3. Miguel Cabrera spends time on the Disabled List: WRONG
Miggy did slip a bit from his monster 2012-2013 stretch, but not because of injury woes. He played all but three games. At 31 he was still as durable as ever.

4. The Nationals will win 100 games: WRONG
The Nats had a great season, winning 96 games and their second division title in three years, but 96 wins isn't 100. Close, but no cigar.

5. Alfonso Soriano hits less than 20 homers: CORRECT
Finally! Sori finally broke down at age 38 after slamming 66 dingers in 2012-2013 combined, managing just six homers in his final major league season.

6. The Pirates revert to their losing ways: WRONG
I'm always down on the Bucs, and lately they've been proving me wrong a lot. They slipped a bit from their 94-win 2013 but still won 88 games and made the playoffs as one of the Senior Circuit's two wild card entrants.

7. Ryan Braun returns to form: WRONG
Braun wasn't bad, but he also wasn't anything close to the guy who won the 2011 NL MVP award and finished runner-up the following year. 31 today, Braun has declined precipitously over the past two years and is in danger of becoming only an average player.

8/ The Phillies finish over .500: WRONG
The Phils were terrible in 2013, going 73-89, and they were just as terrible in 2014, going 73-89 again.

9. Curtis Granderson becomes the next Jason Bay: WRONG
Granderson was surprisingly okay in his first season with the Mets, clubbing 20 home runs and working 79 walks in 155 games. He might turn into a pumpkin next year, but at least the Mets got one solid season out of him, which is more than they can say about Bay.

10. Yasiel Puig will win the National League MVP: WRONG
Right team, wrong guy. Wasn't expecting Clayton Kershaw to become the first National League starting pitcher to be named MVP since Bob Gibson.

11. Nobody on the Tigers receives Cy Young votes: WRONG
Justin Verlander fell apart and Anibal Sanchez, the 2013 AL ERA champion, came back to earth. But Max Scherzer, the 2013 AL Cy Young recipient, enjoyed another dominant season and finished fifth in the voting.

12. The Astros have a better record than the Marlins: WRONG
Houston improved a ton from its horrid 2013, climbing from a mere 51 wins to a more respectable (but still bad) 70. The 'Stros won seven fewer games than the Miami Marlins, however, who remained on the fringes of contention late into the season thanks to some surprise pitching performances and an MVP-caliber year from Giancarlo Stanton.

13. Jackie Bradley, Jr. has a better season than Xander Bogaerts: PUSH
Bogaerts was worth a measly 0.2 bWAR due to his atrocious hitting and poor fielding. Bradley was even worse at the plate (his .531 OPS fell a good 129 points shy of Bogaerts), but grated out 0.6 bWAR because of his slick glovework in center field. So Bogaerts was the better hitter, but technically Bradley was more valuable, so I'll call this one a wash.

14. The Blue Jays win the American League East: WRONG
Toronto did improve from its dismal last place finish in 2013, going from 74 wins to 83 wins and a third place finish. But they were not able to go from worst to first, as the Red Sox did in 2012-2013.

Red Sox Pitching First Half Review 2014

It's really too bad the Red Sox haven't been able to hit a lick this year, because even if they were an average offensive team they'd probably be leading the AL East right now thanks to their stellar pitching.

This is the rarest of Red Sox teams in that their pitching's been pretty good, but their lineup has stunk to high heaven (reflected in the fact that both their All-Stars were hurlers). The staff as a whole has the fourth-best ERA in the American League--not too shabby for a team playing half its games at Fenway--and the circuit's fifth-most strikeouts. Jon Lester and John Lackey have formed a strong 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, Jake Peavy hsn't been nearly as bad as his 1-8 record suggests, and Clay Buchholz seems to be rounding into form. For the most part the bullpen has been fantastic, none better than a certain Japanese closer pictured above.

Here's my take on some of the key Red Sox pitchers this year along with their first half grades in parentheses:

SP Jon Lester (A+)
Lester's postseason success seems to have carried over into the regular season, which is shaping up to be the best of his career (in a contract year, no less). His 2.65 ERA is a full run lower than his career 3.66 mark and his 2.61 FIP means it's no fluke. The 30 year-old has reversed four straight years of declining strikeout rates by fanning more than a batter per inning for the first time since 2010. With 134 K's he's already more than three quarters of the way to last year's total of 177. He's showed better command of the strike zone as well, slashing his walk rate to a career-low 2.0 BB/9, which in concert with his improved K rate has resulted in a 4.62 K/BB ratio (it was 2.56 from 2010 through 2013). Lester's also limited his mistakes and thus the long ball, posting the lowest home run rate of his career. Mix it all together and Lester's been one of the ten best pitchers in the American League this year, a worthy All-Star and Cy Young candidate with an ERA 35 percent better than the average pitcher after adjustments for league and park. Lester's going to get paid this offseason, but will the Red Sox be the ones footing the bill?

SP John Lackey (B+)
Lackey's strong first half proved that last year's unexpected return to form was no fluke. The 35 year-old has been terrific in his fifth season with the Sox, compiling a 3.79 ERA, 3.53 FIP and 3.89 K/BB ratio in his 123 and a-third innings. He didn't miss a start, which could explain why he faded at the end of the first half. His ERA ballooned from 2.96 on June 22nd to 3.79 by the break as he got beaten around by the Mariners, Yankees in Orioles in three successive starts. Though he earned the win, Lackey labored through his final start of the half against a weak Astros lineup, walking five and needing 117 pitches to get through six innings. Hopefully the break will help him recharge and get back on track.

SP Clay Buchholz (D-)
The ace of Boston's staff last year has been their least effective starter this year. True to form, Buchholz landed on the Disabled List in late May with a hyperextended left knee and missed a full month. At the time he had a 7.02 ERA, much like how he had an equally disgusting 7.19 ERA at the end of May in 2012. Buchholz pitched much better over the final four months of that season, trimming his ERA to 4.22 by the end of September before the Yankees shelled him in his final start of the year. A similar turnaround appears to be underway this year, with his four starts since coming off the DL producing much better results. His pre-and post-DL splits couldn't be more night and day:

Through May 26th: 7.02 ERA 1.98 WHIP .339/.403/.502 .384 BABiP 63% strikes 7% swinging strikes
Since May 26th: 2.73 ERA 0.71 WHIP .197/.215/.356  .197 BABiP 67% strikes 12% swinging strikes

Buchholz has returned to form since returning from the DL, striking out 23 against one lone walk in 29 and two-thirds innings of 2.73 ERA-ball. His most recent turn was easily his best of the season, a complete game three-hit shutout in Houston where he whiffed 12 Astros and walked none. Expect Buchholz to continue his run of success in the second half.

SP Jake Peavy (D+)
Poor Peavy. I really don't have anything else to add.

SP Felix Doubront (F)
Doubront was really struggling before going on the DL with a strained left (throwing) shoulder. Rather than continue to improve as he did last year, he appeared to be taking a major step back. In two of his ten starts he couldn't even make it out of the third inning, and in two others he failed to finish the fifth. After spending a month on the Disabled List he has been removed from the starting rotation, though his bullpen adventures have been just as difficult. His 5.06 ERA in three appearances out of the 'pen is only marginally better than his 5.19 ERA as a starter this season. What's even more frustrating is that Doubront showed for a long time last year that he could pitch well at the major league level. It's clear that he's broken, but can he be fixed? Hopefully once he adapts to his relief role he'll be able to regain his confidence.

SP Brandon Workman (D)
Workman was used primarily as a reliever last year, his first in the majors, but has since transitioned to a starter in his sophomore campaign. He made the Opening Day roster and pitched well in his three relief appearances early in the season, but was demoted to Pawtucket to gain more experience as a starting pitcher. Though he fared terribly with a 5.36 ERA in eight starts, the seasoning proved worthwhile when he was recalled in late May to replace Doubront in the rotation. The 25 year-old has been merely serviceable in that role with a 4.50 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 1.89 K/BB ratio in his eight starts this year. That's fine for a fifth starter stand-in.

SP Rubby De La Rosa (A-)
De La Rosa, who you might recall came over from the Dodgers in Boston's infamous roster purge two summers ago, pitched sparingly for the Sox last year, making 11 relief appearances and zero starts in the final two months of the season. He failed to distinguish himself in Triple-A (4.26 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) and during his cup of coffee, yielding 15 hits and seven earned runs in his 11 and a third innings of work.

This year has been a different story entirely for the 25 year-old. Though he began the season with Pawtucket, he was called up in late May when Buchholz made his annual trip to the Disabled List. His first start in a Red Sox uniform--versus the Rays at Fenway Park on May 31st--was a gem. De La Rosa twirled seven shutout innings, allowing just four hits (three of them singles) and no walks while striking out eight as Boston cruised to a 7-1 victory and sixth win in a row.

De La Rosa remained in the rotation until Buchholz returned in late June, delivering a pair of mediocre starts and a pair of great ones. He was demoted upon Buchholz's return, only to be summoned again a few weeks later with John Farrell needing a spot starter against the White Sox. De La Rosa didn't dazzle but pitched well enough (three earned runs in five innings) to keep Boston in the game, a game they eventually won. He takes a 2.89 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 4.13 K/BB ratio into the second half, albeit in the small sample size of 37 and a third innings. He's not this good, as his 3.75 FIP will tell you, but it's encouraging to see him performing so well as a starter, better than anyone could have possibly expected. Whether in the rotation or as a trade chip, De La Rosa should be provide some value going forward.

CL Koji Uehara (A+)
The Red Sox don't take leads late into games very often, but when they do they can be sure that those leads are safe in the hands of Uehara. As expected, Uehara has come back to earth a bit following his fantastic and historic 2013, but he's still been one of the best closers in the game hands-down. In addition to converting 18 of his 20 save chances, the first-time All-Star owns a 57/6 K/BB ratio, 1.65 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. He's ran into some hiccups over the past three weeks or so, with both his blown saves coming in that time as his ERA has jumped from a microscopic 0.57 on June 17th to 1.65 at the break. As much as it pains me to say it, the Red Sox must trade their 39 year-old star closer, a free agent at season's end. More on that to come.

Rest of the 'pen: Burke Badenhop, Andrew Miller and Junichi Tazawa have all been outstanding. Free agent addition Edward Mujica has been the opposite of that, as has Craig Breslow. Chris Capuano, another free agent signing, also struggled mightily and was DFA'd because of it along with Grady Sizemore and A.J. Pierzynski.

Red Sox (Lack of) Offense First Half Review

I'm paraphrasing here, but Occam's razor says the simplest explanation is usually the correct one. Well, Occam's razor says the Boston Red Sox are nine games under .500 at the All-Star break, tied with the Tampa Bay Rays for last place in the AL East, because they haven't hit for beans all year.

Ding ding ding! We have a winner.

After leading baseball in runs scored last year, the defending champions rank dead-last in the American League in runs, slugging percentage, and total bases. They rank second-to-last in steals and are third from the bottom in homers, batting average, and OPS.

That's crazy. It's the worst case scenario of a veteran team getting old all at once and the young kids not being ready or able to pick up the slack. What's crazier is that most of the same guys from a year ago for back, with the key exceptions of catcher and center field. Boston basically has the same freaking team, and somehow the best offense in baseball became one of the worst almost overnight.

This is the part where I mention that injuries have played a part, because injuries always play a part on teams that fail to meet expectations. The 2012 Red Sox were crippled by them, last year's team avoided them for the most part, and this year's edition falls somewhere in between. Shane Victorino and Will Middlebrooks have barely played. Mike Napoli did a quick stint on the DL, but Mike Carp missed more than five weeks. The Red Sox have rarely been at full strength this year.

But even if they had been at full strength all along, I still think they'd only be a .500 team at best. Two-thirds of the outfield still can't hit and neither can the catcher. The left side of the infield has been a mess all season; when Bogaerts was at short he was hitting but playing poor defense, and now that he's at third he can't hit his way out of a paper bag and Drew's even worse. Both halves of the Daniel Nava/Jonny Gomes platoon have fallen off a cliff, Jackie Bradley, Jr. and Grady Sizemore can't hold Jacoby Ellsbury's jockstrap, and Boston's big bats--Ortiz, Napoli, and Pedroia--haven't been what they were last year.

All I can say is that the Red Sox better thank their lucky stars for Brock Holt. Because if he doesn't play like an All-Star for 61 games, this team's at least 12 games out and probably has the worst record in the American League as I'm writing this (sorry Rangers fans).

Here's a position by position breakdown of Boston's so-called hitters, none of whom are All-Stars and only one of whom (Ortiz) deserved even a passing glance. Next to each name I'll give a letter grade.

C A.J. Pierzynski (F)
So it turns out signing 37 year-old free agent catchers with a ton of miles on them isn't the best idea after all. DFA'ed by Boston last Wednesday, Pierzynski was a far cry from what he and Jarrod Saltalamacchia were last year, hitting a career low .254/.286/.348 at the time. He'd been durable but replacement level at best, and nobody liked him, so he had to go. 23 year-old Christian Vazquez has replaced him behind the plate and played wonderfully in his first taste of the Show. Whereas Pierzynski was an established veteran on the way down, Vazquez Boston's backstop of the future, a rising star on the way up. Can't wait to see how he does in the second half.

Pierzynski's backup, David Ross, is still one of the better defensive catchers out there but his bat (.600 OPS) has become horrendous. He's a black hole whenever John Farrell inserts him into the lineup despite his ability to still pop the occasional homer.

1B Mike Napoli (B)
Napoli's the only member of the starting nine who's hitting as well as he did last year. His adjusted OPS, wRC+ and wOBA are within one point of what they were last year, even if his offensive profile has changed somewhat. His power's down--hardly surprising for a 32 year-old slugger--but he's made up for that by cutting down on his strikeouts and posting the best walk rate of his career. He's also the only Red Sox besides Ortiz capable of clearing the fences with any regularity, as his 10 home runs are 67 percent more than anyone else on the team not named Papi. He hasn't homered since his game-winning slam off Masahiro Tanaka on June 28th, so look for him to go on a power binge early in the second half.

2B Dustin Pedroia (C+)
Pedroia's power has declined for the fourth straight season, with his slugging percentage falling below .400 and another year of single digit home runs all but certain. What's even more puzzling is his struggles on the bases, where he's been thrown out in six of his eight steal attempts after swiping 119 bases at a 79.33 percent success rate prior to this year. But while Pedroia's regressed in those two key areas, he's still been worth roughly three wins for the Red Sox due to his outstanding defense at second base and solid offensive production: .280/.348/.381 (103 OPS+) with a team-high 26 doubles. Pedrioa's bat his picked up over the last few weeks, which could be a sign of a second half breakout.

SS/3B Xander Bogaerts (C-)
Like most rookies, Bogaerts has experienced his share of ups and downs in his first full season. The 21 year-old was on fire in late May and early June, only to go off the rails shortly after Drew's arrival bumped him over to third base. These last five weeks have been hell for Bogaerts, who endured an 0-for-27 skid at one point and has 11 hits (10 singles) and 32 strikeouts in his last 107 at-bats. His OPS has nosedived almost 200 points and his confidence appears rattled. Farrell wisely moved the kid down in the lineup to help take some of the pressure off him, and now that he's committed to playing the kids Bogaerts should get every opportunity to work his way out of this funk. Hopefully he's able to clear his head over the Break and put the slump behind him in the second half.

SS Stephen Drew (F---)
What a waste of $10 million dollars. Signed by the Sox on May 21st, J.D. Drew's kid brother has been a total bust in his second season in Boston. He's done nothing in his 101 plate appearances this year, batting .151//218/.269 with six extra base hits, five RBI and 30 strikeouts. The two month layoff appears to have affected his timing, as he looks awfully rusty and just can't seem to get into a groove in the batter's box. His poor performance and not-inexpensive price tag make him practically untradeable, so unfortunately it looks like Boston's stuck with him.

Everywhere: Brock Holt (A+)
Can't say enough about Brock Star. Not only has he played every non-pitching position except catcher (which he would definitely play if Farrell asked him to), but he's been on fire at the dish since Boston called him up. Fresh off yesterday's five-hit performance, he's now hitting a ridiculous .327/.371/.463. There's no way he can keep this up of course--his .395 BABiP has to come down eventually--but it's going to be fun watching him try. He's one of the few guys capable of lighting a spark under this veteran-laden, complacent team.

LF Jonny Gomes (D+)
Roughly 10 percent above average with the stick last year, Gomes has been 10 percent below average this year. Not only has his power evaporated but all three rate stats are down considerably, leading to an OPS that's plunged from .771 last year to .680 this year. Throw in his zero baserunning and shoddy defense and Gomes has been replacement level at best. He'll be lucky to reach 10 home runs this year after exceeding that number in eight of his last nine seasons.

CF Jackie Bradley, Jr. (D)
Bradley's defense has been tremendous, but his bat's been a massive disappointment. His glovework is good enough to keep him comfortably above replacement level, but he gives back a lot of that value at the plate and really needs to start hitting better in order to become an everyday center fielder. Bradley's been better lately, batting .371/.436/.429 over his most recent 10 games spanning the past two weeks, but where's the power? The 24 year-old strikes out way too much--in over one fourth of his plate appearances--for a guy with only one home run and an .084 Iso. His walk rate's solid at just under nine percent, helping him sustain a not-unplayable .305 OBP, but if he's not going to hit for power or run much (six steal attempts thus far) than he needs to compensate by reaching base more often. I don't care if he plays better defense than Willie Mays; he can't be a regular with the worst OPS of AL outfielders

RF Daniel Nava (C-)
Everyone knew Nava wouldn't be able to duplicate last year's stellar and completely unexpected .303/.385/.445 performance, but few could have seen him hitting regressing so much that he's having the worst season of his career. His .330 OBP is actually quite good, but his .310 slugging percentage is unacceptable for an outfielder who can't run and plays average defense at best. Nava's never going to be a big power hitter, but he needs to slug closer to his .397 career mark than .300. To be fair, he's more like the 2013 version of Nava lately with a .330/.419/.374 batting line since the calendar flipped to June. He seems to have turned things around at the plate, but he's always been prone to streaks so who knows how long that will last?

Can't say much about the Flyin' Hawaiian other than that he's battled injuries and the Sox desperately need him to return. But when he has played, he's played more like the mediocre Victorino of 2012 than the All-Star caliber one from a year ago.

DH David Ortiz (B+)
As expected, Ortiz has remained Boston's best hitter, leading the club in home runs and RBI  by wide margins as well as walks, total bases, slugging percentage, OPS, and OPS+. At 38 he's continued to hit, albeit not quite at the otherworldly level hes been at the last three years. A near-70 point freefall in BABiP has caused his average to tumble more than 50 points to .255, which would be the lowest of his Boston career outside of his abysmal .238 showing in 2009. Such a drastic drop off seems best explained by his batted ball data, which reveals a steep decline in line drive rate and a significant uptick in fly ball rate. That, combined with a lack of protection behind him (he leads the major leagues in intentional walks with 16, more than the rest of the Red Sox put together) and the presence of defensive shifts, explains why his BABiP and batting average are in the toilet.

That said, Ortiz continues to age gracefully and has showed no other signs of significant decline. His walk and strikeout rates have held steady and while his power has waned a bit, it remains elite as seen by his .231 Iso. Papi's on pace for his eighth season with at least 30 home runs and 100 RBI, benchmarks ZiPS and Steamer say he'll reach (but not by much). He's already cleared 20 homers for the 13th straight season, the longest active streak in baseball, and has twice as many big flies as anybody else on the Red Sox roster. Assuming Cooperstown doesn't fall off a cliff or suffer a serious injury in the second half, he appears poised to deliver on the contract extension he signed for next year over the winter.

Parting shot: Jonathan Herrera was a disaster and Grady Sizemore just couldn't hack it. I'm glad Cherington came around and started promoting his minor league talent like Vazquez and Mookie Betts, if only because the youngsters can't possibly be any worse than Boston's established major league players.

Bold Predictions Review

Back in February I made 13 bold predictions for the 2013 baseball season. Let's see how they turned out:

1. The Boston Red Sox make the playoffs: CORRECT
Just six months ago, many experts were predicting Boston to finish last in the American League. The bearded Red Sox proved them wrong by winning 97 games and sailing into the postseason as AL East champions.

2. The New York Yankees miss the playoffs: CORRECT
Just one year removed from a 95-win season, the reigning division champs slumped to 85 wins. Robinson Cano, Alfonso Soriano and Hiroki Kuroda did their best to keep the Yanks afloat, but in the end New York was unable to overcome injuries to Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez, Kevin Youkilis, and Brett Gardner, among others.

3. B.J. Upton goes 30/30: WRONG
Upton smacked 28 home runs and stole 31 bases in 2012 but came nowhere close to matching those numbers this season, finishing with just 9 and 12 respectively. I tried to give myself an out by saying Justin Upton would be the one to go 30/30 instead, but he managed just 8 steals to go along with his 27 homers.

4. Mariano Rivera leads the American League in saves: WRONG
The greatest closer who ever lived netted 44 saves in his final season, placing him third in the AL behind Jim Johnson's 50 and Greg Holland's 47.

5. The Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Indians both have winning records: WRONG
I got this one half-right. Terry Francona's re-engineered Indians shocked everyone by winning 92 games and claiming the top Wild Card spot, but the Mariners' makeover didn't work out quite as well. Seattle actually got worse, going from 75 wins in 2012 to 71 this year despite beefing up their lineup with Mike Morse, Raul Ibanez, Jason Bay and Kendrys Morales.

6. Dan Haren wins 20 games: WRONG
I thought Haren would bounce back for a Nationals team that was going to win more than 100 games. Instead, Washington disappointed and Haren (10-14, 4.67 ERA) was a big reason why.

7. Nick Swisher hits fewer than 20 home runs: WRONG
I figured I had this one in the bag when a slumping Swisher entered September with 15 home runs, but he cracked seven in the season's final month to close out the year with 22. That makes nine straight seasons with at least 21 big flies for Swish.

8. Michael Young bats over .300: WRONG
Seeing as how most 36 year-olds get worse, not better, I really should've seen this one coming after Young's average plummeted 61 points from 2011's .338 to 2012's .277. It did bounce back a bit this year, all the way up to .279 (though he did hit .314 after the Phillies traded him to the Dodgers).

9 Zack Greinke wins the NL Cy Young award: WRONG
Greinke had a great season with his 2.63 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and the best winning percentage in the National League, but nobody's taking this award away from Clayton Kershaw.

10. Jim Johnson and Fernando Rodney combined have fewer saves than the AL saves leader: WRONG
Johnson was the AL saves leader and Rodney earned 37 saves. Both pitchers regressed, which was the point I was trying to make, but just not as much as I anticipated.

11. Bryce Harper is better than Mike Trout: WRONG
In April, yes. In every other month, no. Harper improved on his excellent rookie season but still has a long way to go to reach Trout.

12. Derek Jeter plays in fewer than 100 games: CORRECT
Injuries limited Jeter to just 17 games, the fewest since he played 15 in his 1995 debut.

13. The Toronto Blue Jays won't win the World Series: CORRECT
Everyone picked the bolstered Blue Jays to win the Fall Classic after a busy offseason in which Toronto added R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Melky Cabrera without giving up any of their established talent. So much for that; the Blue Jays finished dead-last in their division and didn't play a meaningful baseball game in the second half.

Overall: 4-for-13 (.308). Not great, but I can live with that.

Red Sox Offense First Half Review

The driving force behind Boston's sterling first half has been its potent offense, which leads the major leagues in runs, doubles, and OPS.

C Jarrod Saltalamacchia
After back-to-back middling seasons as Boston's backstop/Jason Varitek's replacement backstop. Salty seems to have settled in and looks more comfortable with the pitching staff. He's improved with the stick as well, even if he isn't hitting for as much power as he did during 2011-'12, when he smashed 41 home runs with a .224 ISO.  It's troubling that he's fanned in more than one third of his plate appearances so far and has benefited from a fluky .387 BABiP. He's compensated by already establishing a new career high in doubles and boosting on-base percentage nearly 50 points thanks to a much improved walk rate. After posting a .288 OBP in consecutive seasons he's been more selective at the plate, a relief for those who feared he was nothing more than a J.P. Arencibia type.

1B Mike Napoli
The returns on him have been good so far, even though he's nowhere near the player Adrian Gonzalez was in his brief stint with the Sox. The degenerative hip condition that scared Boston into restructuring his contract hasn't been an issue for Napoli, who's been in the lineup almost everyday and provided his usual power and on-base ability. His 2011 aberration notwithstanding, Napoli is never going to be Manny Ramirez, but he's formed a strong 1-2 punch with David Ortiz in the heart of Boston's order. He's had his share of ups and downs, with a nasty two month long slump of .242/.343/.331 nestled between his red-hot first month and monster July. Like Saltalamacchia, he's likely to see some regression if and when his .383 BABiP comes back to Earth, especially since Napoli is walking less and striking out more often than ever before. Perhaps the most surprising thing about his season so far is that he's hit better on the road (.832 OPS) than he has at Fenway (.819). He also has a healthy RBI total despite not performing particularly well with men on base, so if that changes he'll likely make a run at his first 100 RBI season.

2B Dustin Pedroia
Pedroia's bounced back nicely from a "down" 2012 and just received a contract extension that will keep the former MVP in Beantown through 2021. More on that to come.

3B Jose Iglesias
Will Middlebrooks, the Opening Day third baseman and heir apparent to Kevin Youkilis, was such a black hole on offense (63 OPS+) that he needed a demotion to Pawtucket. That allowed Iglesias, a shortstop by trade, to man the hot corner while Drew plays short. The 23 year-old Iglesias has become the early frontrunner to win American League Rookie of the Year thanks to his sensational defense and unsustainable batting average. His .343 mark looks a lot less impressive given that more than 81 percent of his hits are singles and is guaranteed to fall along with his .393 BABiP. In fact, his inevitable regression to the mean is already well underway. Over the past month he's been the all-glove no-stick ballplayer he's always been, batting just .227 with one extra base hit--a double. For all his good luck and infield singles, he's still not a capable major league hitter and probably never will be. Xander Bogaerts is the team's future at shortstop.

SS Stephen Drew
J.D. Drew's little brother has been a disappointment so far, bearing little resemblance to the All-Star caliber player he was with Arizona. Showed signs of life with a solid June, only to miss three weeks with hamstring tightness that derailed his momentum. He's always been more of a second half player, with a career OPS 54 points better after the All-Star Break than before it, so hopefully he'll find his June swing and be fine going forward.

LF Daniel Nava
The miracle worker's evolved from a feel good story into a legitimate All-Star candidate. He carried the team on his back during the season's first three weeks, helping Boston jump out to a fast start. Since then he's continued to drive in runs while maintaining a strong OBP. Suffice it to say, Nava's provided much more than anyone could've possibly hoped for at the beginning of the year.

CF Jacoby Ellsbury
The major league stolen base leader has recovered from a sluggish start, boosting his batting average above .300 on the season. He's posting the best walk rate of his career which, combined with his excellent batting average, has him primed to score 100 runs for just the second time in his career. His three month drought between longballs proves that his bizarre power surge was indeed an aberration, but then again it's hard to go yard when you're hitting nearly two balls on the ground for every one you lift into the air. The speedster's recouped some of that lost value by being more aggressive and efficient on the basepaths, swiping bags at a 92.5 percent clip. More than anything, health has been the key to his success, as he's already played more games in 2013 than he did in 2010 and 2012 combined.

RF Shane Victorino
The 32 year-old has had his issues staying on the field, missing 34 games already. But when he's played he's been more than capable. In addition to supplying plenty of his plus defense and baserunning, he's been better at the plate than he was last year thanks to better results batting from the left side. That's allowed Farrell to bat him out of the two hole in 60 of his 70 games, allowing Victorino to be a table-setter instead of sliding him down in the order (what happened to Carl Crawford).

DH David Ortiz
Despite opening the season on the DL, Ortiz picked up where he left off in 2012 by getting off to a torrid start. Big Papi has far and away been the team's best hitter all year, leading the club in most offensive categories and anchoring the heart of Boston's order.

The bench
Mike Carp has been spectacular and Jonny Gomes is coming around. Otherwise, there isn't really too much to say.