Red Sox Roll into Second Half

Boston's strong finish to the 1st half looks like a sign of things to come (CBS)

Well, it's officially the All-Star break and the Red Sox are right where they're supposed to be; leading the AL East and on pace for 90-plus wins. It hasn't been the smoothest ride, but Boston had an uneven first half last year too en route to winning 93 games and the division. And although they limped into the break by losing four of their last five, that came on the heels of a six-game winning streak that equaled their season-high. Overall, the Sox are in good shape heading into the second half, having gone 29-16 since May 21 as several of their top hitters and pitchers have come around.

On the hitting side of things, Boston rates fourth in the AL in runs per game and total runs despite ranking dead last in home runs. They've compensated with a contact-heavy approach that's yielded the league's second-highest batting average and third-fewest strikeouts. The lineup has proven to be deep and balanced, with regulars posting an OPS+ over 100 at every position except catcher and third base. Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts are both batting .303, Mitch Moreland's having one of the best years of his career, and each member of the Killer B's outfield has an OPS north of .800. Hanley Ramirez had another slow first half, but he caught fire towards the end and looks poised to go on a tear post-All-Star break.

Still, this clearly isn't the same offense that led the sport in runs last year. They've missed David Ortiz in the heart of their lineup, as it seems unlikely that anyone will replicate his standard 30 homers and 100 RBIs (not to mention his leadership). Catcher and third base have been black holes, with the Sox tied for last in the AL in fWAR at both positions. Third base has been a revolving door thanks to Pablo Sandoval's ineptitude, and while Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon are fine receivers, neither can hit. Not much can be done about the catching situation given the dearth of quality backstops available, but Todd Frazier is on the block should Boston be inclined to upgrade externally rather than promote Rafael Devers.

The Red Sox have graded out as top-10 defensive team, which isn't surprising given their young, athletic outfield and their stellar double-play combination of Pedroia and Bogaerts. This has undoubtedly aided the pitching staff, which hasn't been the super-rotation that some predicted but still ranks second in the AL in ERA. BoSox pitchers have been terrific on their own merit, however, issuing the fewest walks in the league and ranking third in strikeouts with more than one whiff per inning. So while their offense has been predicated on avoiding whiffs, their pitchers have thrived by racking them up.

It's impossible to over-state the impact that Chris Sale has had this year, as he's accounted for 1/6 of the team's innings and has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball. Boston hasn't had a pitcher this dominant since Pedro Martinez, and he's been a true savior since the day he donned a Red Sox uniform, making up for Rick Porcello's regression and the injury woes of David Price and Eduardo Rodriguez (both of whom have been effective when healthy). He's their MVP of the first half. Drew Pomeranz has also stepped up and appears to have settled into Boston after struggling in the second half last year and early this year.

The bullpen has also flourished despite getting nothing from two of the club's top relievers, Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg. Craig Kimbrel has rebounded after scuffling in his first year with Boston and is having one of the best seasons ever by a modern closer. Joe Kelly has been nearly as good setting him up, becoming the shutdown reliever everyone knew he would be once he was finally freed from the rotation. Matt Barnes and Heath Hembree have been solid in middle relief, while Fernando Abad has pitched much better than his last name would suggest. This strong stable of relievers have helped Boston maintain a winning record (11-9) in one-run games and, more importantly, should be enough to prevent Dave Dombrowski from shipping out more prospects at the trade deadline.

Add it all up and the Red Sox have played as well as their record suggests, with a 51-38 Pythagorean W-L record (plus-65 run differential) to match their 50-39 actual record. They've been lucky in extra-inning games (7-1), but everything else about them appears legitimate and they are trending in the right direction. The rotation will finally be at full strength when Rodriguez returns after the All-Star break, which could allow Boston to pull away from the pack if everyone stays healthy. The Red Sox will also look to capitalize on a favorable schedule that puts 42 of their remaining 73 games at home, where they've gone 25-14 (.641) this year.

Accordingly, the Red Sox don't need to make any major moves at the trade deadline. They're a well-rounded, mostly-complete team with few holes to fill. An upgrade at the hot corner would be nice, but not worthwhile if the plan is to bring Devers up in September (or, if by some miracle, Jhonny Peralta finds his swing in Triple-A). Pitching depth is always appreciated, but not a priority. Firing John Farrell would be a dream come true, but for now that's all it is; a dream.

Red Sox Pitching First Half Review 2014

It's really too bad the Red Sox haven't been able to hit a lick this year, because even if they were an average offensive team they'd probably be leading the AL East right now thanks to their stellar pitching.

This is the rarest of Red Sox teams in that their pitching's been pretty good, but their lineup has stunk to high heaven (reflected in the fact that both their All-Stars were hurlers). The staff as a whole has the fourth-best ERA in the American League--not too shabby for a team playing half its games at Fenway--and the circuit's fifth-most strikeouts. Jon Lester and John Lackey have formed a strong 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, Jake Peavy hsn't been nearly as bad as his 1-8 record suggests, and Clay Buchholz seems to be rounding into form. For the most part the bullpen has been fantastic, none better than a certain Japanese closer pictured above.

Here's my take on some of the key Red Sox pitchers this year along with their first half grades in parentheses:

SP Jon Lester (A+)
Lester's postseason success seems to have carried over into the regular season, which is shaping up to be the best of his career (in a contract year, no less). His 2.65 ERA is a full run lower than his career 3.66 mark and his 2.61 FIP means it's no fluke. The 30 year-old has reversed four straight years of declining strikeout rates by fanning more than a batter per inning for the first time since 2010. With 134 K's he's already more than three quarters of the way to last year's total of 177. He's showed better command of the strike zone as well, slashing his walk rate to a career-low 2.0 BB/9, which in concert with his improved K rate has resulted in a 4.62 K/BB ratio (it was 2.56 from 2010 through 2013). Lester's also limited his mistakes and thus the long ball, posting the lowest home run rate of his career. Mix it all together and Lester's been one of the ten best pitchers in the American League this year, a worthy All-Star and Cy Young candidate with an ERA 35 percent better than the average pitcher after adjustments for league and park. Lester's going to get paid this offseason, but will the Red Sox be the ones footing the bill?

SP John Lackey (B+)
Lackey's strong first half proved that last year's unexpected return to form was no fluke. The 35 year-old has been terrific in his fifth season with the Sox, compiling a 3.79 ERA, 3.53 FIP and 3.89 K/BB ratio in his 123 and a-third innings. He didn't miss a start, which could explain why he faded at the end of the first half. His ERA ballooned from 2.96 on June 22nd to 3.79 by the break as he got beaten around by the Mariners, Yankees in Orioles in three successive starts. Though he earned the win, Lackey labored through his final start of the half against a weak Astros lineup, walking five and needing 117 pitches to get through six innings. Hopefully the break will help him recharge and get back on track.

SP Clay Buchholz (D-)
The ace of Boston's staff last year has been their least effective starter this year. True to form, Buchholz landed on the Disabled List in late May with a hyperextended left knee and missed a full month. At the time he had a 7.02 ERA, much like how he had an equally disgusting 7.19 ERA at the end of May in 2012. Buchholz pitched much better over the final four months of that season, trimming his ERA to 4.22 by the end of September before the Yankees shelled him in his final start of the year. A similar turnaround appears to be underway this year, with his four starts since coming off the DL producing much better results. His pre-and post-DL splits couldn't be more night and day:

Through May 26th: 7.02 ERA 1.98 WHIP .339/.403/.502 .384 BABiP 63% strikes 7% swinging strikes
Since May 26th: 2.73 ERA 0.71 WHIP .197/.215/.356  .197 BABiP 67% strikes 12% swinging strikes

Buchholz has returned to form since returning from the DL, striking out 23 against one lone walk in 29 and two-thirds innings of 2.73 ERA-ball. His most recent turn was easily his best of the season, a complete game three-hit shutout in Houston where he whiffed 12 Astros and walked none. Expect Buchholz to continue his run of success in the second half.

SP Jake Peavy (D+)
Poor Peavy. I really don't have anything else to add.

SP Felix Doubront (F)
Doubront was really struggling before going on the DL with a strained left (throwing) shoulder. Rather than continue to improve as he did last year, he appeared to be taking a major step back. In two of his ten starts he couldn't even make it out of the third inning, and in two others he failed to finish the fifth. After spending a month on the Disabled List he has been removed from the starting rotation, though his bullpen adventures have been just as difficult. His 5.06 ERA in three appearances out of the 'pen is only marginally better than his 5.19 ERA as a starter this season. What's even more frustrating is that Doubront showed for a long time last year that he could pitch well at the major league level. It's clear that he's broken, but can he be fixed? Hopefully once he adapts to his relief role he'll be able to regain his confidence.

SP Brandon Workman (D)
Workman was used primarily as a reliever last year, his first in the majors, but has since transitioned to a starter in his sophomore campaign. He made the Opening Day roster and pitched well in his three relief appearances early in the season, but was demoted to Pawtucket to gain more experience as a starting pitcher. Though he fared terribly with a 5.36 ERA in eight starts, the seasoning proved worthwhile when he was recalled in late May to replace Doubront in the rotation. The 25 year-old has been merely serviceable in that role with a 4.50 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 1.89 K/BB ratio in his eight starts this year. That's fine for a fifth starter stand-in.

SP Rubby De La Rosa (A-)
De La Rosa, who you might recall came over from the Dodgers in Boston's infamous roster purge two summers ago, pitched sparingly for the Sox last year, making 11 relief appearances and zero starts in the final two months of the season. He failed to distinguish himself in Triple-A (4.26 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) and during his cup of coffee, yielding 15 hits and seven earned runs in his 11 and a third innings of work.

This year has been a different story entirely for the 25 year-old. Though he began the season with Pawtucket, he was called up in late May when Buchholz made his annual trip to the Disabled List. His first start in a Red Sox uniform--versus the Rays at Fenway Park on May 31st--was a gem. De La Rosa twirled seven shutout innings, allowing just four hits (three of them singles) and no walks while striking out eight as Boston cruised to a 7-1 victory and sixth win in a row.

De La Rosa remained in the rotation until Buchholz returned in late June, delivering a pair of mediocre starts and a pair of great ones. He was demoted upon Buchholz's return, only to be summoned again a few weeks later with John Farrell needing a spot starter against the White Sox. De La Rosa didn't dazzle but pitched well enough (three earned runs in five innings) to keep Boston in the game, a game they eventually won. He takes a 2.89 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 4.13 K/BB ratio into the second half, albeit in the small sample size of 37 and a third innings. He's not this good, as his 3.75 FIP will tell you, but it's encouraging to see him performing so well as a starter, better than anyone could have possibly expected. Whether in the rotation or as a trade chip, De La Rosa should be provide some value going forward.

CL Koji Uehara (A+)
The Red Sox don't take leads late into games very often, but when they do they can be sure that those leads are safe in the hands of Uehara. As expected, Uehara has come back to earth a bit following his fantastic and historic 2013, but he's still been one of the best closers in the game hands-down. In addition to converting 18 of his 20 save chances, the first-time All-Star owns a 57/6 K/BB ratio, 1.65 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. He's ran into some hiccups over the past three weeks or so, with both his blown saves coming in that time as his ERA has jumped from a microscopic 0.57 on June 17th to 1.65 at the break. As much as it pains me to say it, the Red Sox must trade their 39 year-old star closer, a free agent at season's end. More on that to come.

Rest of the 'pen: Burke Badenhop, Andrew Miller and Junichi Tazawa have all been outstanding. Free agent addition Edward Mujica has been the opposite of that, as has Craig Breslow. Chris Capuano, another free agent signing, also struggled mightily and was DFA'd because of it along with Grady Sizemore and A.J. Pierzynski.

Red Sox (Lack of) Offense First Half Review

I'm paraphrasing here, but Occam's razor says the simplest explanation is usually the correct one. Well, Occam's razor says the Boston Red Sox are nine games under .500 at the All-Star break, tied with the Tampa Bay Rays for last place in the AL East, because they haven't hit for beans all year.

Ding ding ding! We have a winner.

After leading baseball in runs scored last year, the defending champions rank dead-last in the American League in runs, slugging percentage, and total bases. They rank second-to-last in steals and are third from the bottom in homers, batting average, and OPS.

That's crazy. It's the worst case scenario of a veteran team getting old all at once and the young kids not being ready or able to pick up the slack. What's crazier is that most of the same guys from a year ago for back, with the key exceptions of catcher and center field. Boston basically has the same freaking team, and somehow the best offense in baseball became one of the worst almost overnight.

This is the part where I mention that injuries have played a part, because injuries always play a part on teams that fail to meet expectations. The 2012 Red Sox were crippled by them, last year's team avoided them for the most part, and this year's edition falls somewhere in between. Shane Victorino and Will Middlebrooks have barely played. Mike Napoli did a quick stint on the DL, but Mike Carp missed more than five weeks. The Red Sox have rarely been at full strength this year.

But even if they had been at full strength all along, I still think they'd only be a .500 team at best. Two-thirds of the outfield still can't hit and neither can the catcher. The left side of the infield has been a mess all season; when Bogaerts was at short he was hitting but playing poor defense, and now that he's at third he can't hit his way out of a paper bag and Drew's even worse. Both halves of the Daniel Nava/Jonny Gomes platoon have fallen off a cliff, Jackie Bradley, Jr. and Grady Sizemore can't hold Jacoby Ellsbury's jockstrap, and Boston's big bats--Ortiz, Napoli, and Pedroia--haven't been what they were last year.

All I can say is that the Red Sox better thank their lucky stars for Brock Holt. Because if he doesn't play like an All-Star for 61 games, this team's at least 12 games out and probably has the worst record in the American League as I'm writing this (sorry Rangers fans).

Here's a position by position breakdown of Boston's so-called hitters, none of whom are All-Stars and only one of whom (Ortiz) deserved even a passing glance. Next to each name I'll give a letter grade.

C A.J. Pierzynski (F)
So it turns out signing 37 year-old free agent catchers with a ton of miles on them isn't the best idea after all. DFA'ed by Boston last Wednesday, Pierzynski was a far cry from what he and Jarrod Saltalamacchia were last year, hitting a career low .254/.286/.348 at the time. He'd been durable but replacement level at best, and nobody liked him, so he had to go. 23 year-old Christian Vazquez has replaced him behind the plate and played wonderfully in his first taste of the Show. Whereas Pierzynski was an established veteran on the way down, Vazquez Boston's backstop of the future, a rising star on the way up. Can't wait to see how he does in the second half.

Pierzynski's backup, David Ross, is still one of the better defensive catchers out there but his bat (.600 OPS) has become horrendous. He's a black hole whenever John Farrell inserts him into the lineup despite his ability to still pop the occasional homer.

1B Mike Napoli (B)
Napoli's the only member of the starting nine who's hitting as well as he did last year. His adjusted OPS, wRC+ and wOBA are within one point of what they were last year, even if his offensive profile has changed somewhat. His power's down--hardly surprising for a 32 year-old slugger--but he's made up for that by cutting down on his strikeouts and posting the best walk rate of his career. He's also the only Red Sox besides Ortiz capable of clearing the fences with any regularity, as his 10 home runs are 67 percent more than anyone else on the team not named Papi. He hasn't homered since his game-winning slam off Masahiro Tanaka on June 28th, so look for him to go on a power binge early in the second half.

2B Dustin Pedroia (C+)
Pedroia's power has declined for the fourth straight season, with his slugging percentage falling below .400 and another year of single digit home runs all but certain. What's even more puzzling is his struggles on the bases, where he's been thrown out in six of his eight steal attempts after swiping 119 bases at a 79.33 percent success rate prior to this year. But while Pedroia's regressed in those two key areas, he's still been worth roughly three wins for the Red Sox due to his outstanding defense at second base and solid offensive production: .280/.348/.381 (103 OPS+) with a team-high 26 doubles. Pedrioa's bat his picked up over the last few weeks, which could be a sign of a second half breakout.

SS/3B Xander Bogaerts (C-)
Like most rookies, Bogaerts has experienced his share of ups and downs in his first full season. The 21 year-old was on fire in late May and early June, only to go off the rails shortly after Drew's arrival bumped him over to third base. These last five weeks have been hell for Bogaerts, who endured an 0-for-27 skid at one point and has 11 hits (10 singles) and 32 strikeouts in his last 107 at-bats. His OPS has nosedived almost 200 points and his confidence appears rattled. Farrell wisely moved the kid down in the lineup to help take some of the pressure off him, and now that he's committed to playing the kids Bogaerts should get every opportunity to work his way out of this funk. Hopefully he's able to clear his head over the Break and put the slump behind him in the second half.

SS Stephen Drew (F---)
What a waste of $10 million dollars. Signed by the Sox on May 21st, J.D. Drew's kid brother has been a total bust in his second season in Boston. He's done nothing in his 101 plate appearances this year, batting .151//218/.269 with six extra base hits, five RBI and 30 strikeouts. The two month layoff appears to have affected his timing, as he looks awfully rusty and just can't seem to get into a groove in the batter's box. His poor performance and not-inexpensive price tag make him practically untradeable, so unfortunately it looks like Boston's stuck with him.

Everywhere: Brock Holt (A+)
Can't say enough about Brock Star. Not only has he played every non-pitching position except catcher (which he would definitely play if Farrell asked him to), but he's been on fire at the dish since Boston called him up. Fresh off yesterday's five-hit performance, he's now hitting a ridiculous .327/.371/.463. There's no way he can keep this up of course--his .395 BABiP has to come down eventually--but it's going to be fun watching him try. He's one of the few guys capable of lighting a spark under this veteran-laden, complacent team.

LF Jonny Gomes (D+)
Roughly 10 percent above average with the stick last year, Gomes has been 10 percent below average this year. Not only has his power evaporated but all three rate stats are down considerably, leading to an OPS that's plunged from .771 last year to .680 this year. Throw in his zero baserunning and shoddy defense and Gomes has been replacement level at best. He'll be lucky to reach 10 home runs this year after exceeding that number in eight of his last nine seasons.

CF Jackie Bradley, Jr. (D)
Bradley's defense has been tremendous, but his bat's been a massive disappointment. His glovework is good enough to keep him comfortably above replacement level, but he gives back a lot of that value at the plate and really needs to start hitting better in order to become an everyday center fielder. Bradley's been better lately, batting .371/.436/.429 over his most recent 10 games spanning the past two weeks, but where's the power? The 24 year-old strikes out way too much--in over one fourth of his plate appearances--for a guy with only one home run and an .084 Iso. His walk rate's solid at just under nine percent, helping him sustain a not-unplayable .305 OBP, but if he's not going to hit for power or run much (six steal attempts thus far) than he needs to compensate by reaching base more often. I don't care if he plays better defense than Willie Mays; he can't be a regular with the worst OPS of AL outfielders

RF Daniel Nava (C-)
Everyone knew Nava wouldn't be able to duplicate last year's stellar and completely unexpected .303/.385/.445 performance, but few could have seen him hitting regressing so much that he's having the worst season of his career. His .330 OBP is actually quite good, but his .310 slugging percentage is unacceptable for an outfielder who can't run and plays average defense at best. Nava's never going to be a big power hitter, but he needs to slug closer to his .397 career mark than .300. To be fair, he's more like the 2013 version of Nava lately with a .330/.419/.374 batting line since the calendar flipped to June. He seems to have turned things around at the plate, but he's always been prone to streaks so who knows how long that will last?

Can't say much about the Flyin' Hawaiian other than that he's battled injuries and the Sox desperately need him to return. But when he has played, he's played more like the mediocre Victorino of 2012 than the All-Star caliber one from a year ago.

DH David Ortiz (B+)
As expected, Ortiz has remained Boston's best hitter, leading the club in home runs and RBI  by wide margins as well as walks, total bases, slugging percentage, OPS, and OPS+. At 38 he's continued to hit, albeit not quite at the otherworldly level hes been at the last three years. A near-70 point freefall in BABiP has caused his average to tumble more than 50 points to .255, which would be the lowest of his Boston career outside of his abysmal .238 showing in 2009. Such a drastic drop off seems best explained by his batted ball data, which reveals a steep decline in line drive rate and a significant uptick in fly ball rate. That, combined with a lack of protection behind him (he leads the major leagues in intentional walks with 16, more than the rest of the Red Sox put together) and the presence of defensive shifts, explains why his BABiP and batting average are in the toilet.

That said, Ortiz continues to age gracefully and has showed no other signs of significant decline. His walk and strikeout rates have held steady and while his power has waned a bit, it remains elite as seen by his .231 Iso. Papi's on pace for his eighth season with at least 30 home runs and 100 RBI, benchmarks ZiPS and Steamer say he'll reach (but not by much). He's already cleared 20 homers for the 13th straight season, the longest active streak in baseball, and has twice as many big flies as anybody else on the Red Sox roster. Assuming Cooperstown doesn't fall off a cliff or suffer a serious injury in the second half, he appears poised to deliver on the contract extension he signed for next year over the winter.

Parting shot: Jonathan Herrera was a disaster and Grady Sizemore just couldn't hack it. I'm glad Cherington came around and started promoting his minor league talent like Vazquez and Mookie Betts, if only because the youngsters can't possibly be any worse than Boston's established major league players.

Poor Peavy

Poor Jake Peavy. He's made 19 starts for the Boston Red Sox this year, 12 of them quality, and has one win to show for it. One stinking win. That right there should tell you everything you need to know about why wins and losses are not a good way to measure pitching performance.

Take his most recent start, for example. On Saturday, July 12rh Peavy goes into the eighth inning against the Houston Astros, a horrendous team that should be mince meat for the defending World Series champions. Peavy has one of his best starts of the season, surrendering three earned runs on six hits and a walk while striking out nine. Peavy pitches well enough to win, except that he doesn't. He doesn't even get away with a no-decision because the Red Sox only manage to scrape together two runs against a pitching staff with the league's second-worst ERA. They fall 3-2, sticking Peavy with the hard-luck loss.

That game was Peavy's first half in a nutshell. He's pitched well enough to be a .500 pitcher at least, and if this were last year he'd have a winning record. That says more about how inept the Red Sox offense has been this year than it does how well the three-time All-Star has pitched. Peavy's been far from good in his second season with the Sox, but he hasn't been nearly as bad as his 1-8 record would suggest. Both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs have him at above replacement level, even if they agree that his 4.59 ERA, when adjusted for league and park, is 12 or 13 percent worse than average. With an average GameScore of 50, a number he's reached or exceeded 13 times this season, Peavy's been the very definition of average.

His record doesn't reflect that, however. Since earning his first win of the season in Toronto on April 25th, he's suffered eight straight losses despite making eight quality starts.  The victim of bad luck and poor run support, he takes an ugly 1-8 record into the All-Star Break. For that he can blame Boston's batsmen, who haven't mustered much offense this year but have been lifeless when he's taken the mound. They've scored four runs or less in 15 of his 19 starts, averaging 2.83 runs per start and making Peavy the least-supported qualified starting pitcher in the American League.

When your lineup goes dormant like that it doesn't make an ounce of difference who's pitching. You have to be near-perfect. Nobody could win regularly with such a slim margin of error (well, except maybe Clayton Kershaw). No wonder the Sox have dropped Peavy's eight most recent starts and 11 of his last 12.

Peavy deserves much better. He's allowed three earned runs or fewer in 12 of his 19 starts. Last year, backed by a potent Boston offense averaging 5.27 runs per game, he would have won the majority of those starts. But this year's outfit, trotting out a lineup with more holes than Swiss cheese, has come away with victories in just four of them and none since May 29th.

Plain bad luck has to account for Peavy's pitiful record as well. It seems like ages ago, but the former Cy Young got off to a great start with a 3.09 ERA through Mother's Day. Boston won four of those first seven starts, six of them quality, but he was rewarded with one win, one loss and five no-decisions. In June alone, when Peavy was tagged with five losses in his six starts, Boston plated a grand total of nine runs, as in one fewer than ten. They were shutout twice, scored twice three times, and totaled three on June 3rd in Cleveland.

Peavy also has to be peeved that lesser starters have fared better. Rotation-mates Clay Buchholz and Felix Doubront, both with ERAs over five, have seven wins between them in six more starts. The Rangers' Colby Lewis has six wins in spite of his 6.37 ERA. Minnesota's Ricky Nolasco has a 5.90 ERA, but is 5-7. Colorado's Juan Nicasio's even worse at 5.92, but somehow he's 5-5. The list goes on. Peavy's pitched much, much better than all of them, but you wouldn't know it by looking at their records.

Peavy's hasn't always pitched well, but more often than not he's pitched well enough to win. Unfortunately Boston's lineup has let him down. The Red Sox have talked about trading Peavy before the July 31st deadlline, and for his sake I hope they do. In the meantime, his pursuit of that elusive second win of the year continues.

My 2014 AL All-Star Ballot

Bautista, the leading vote-getter, is a worthy pick (BleacherReport)

Today's the last day to vote for the All-Star Game! As promised, here are my picks for the American League squad:

C Salvador Perez
I really wanted to vote for Derek Norris here, but couldn't get past the fact that he barely has 200 plate appearances. With 100 more plate appearances (which at this point accounts for one-third of the season), Perez has had more of an impact and been head and shoulders above his fellow American League backstops this year, leading qualified AL receivers in meaningful categories such as slugging percentage, wOBA, OPS, wRC+, and fWAR. He also ranks second in home runs, tied with Brian McCann just two behind Mike Zunino, and runs scored with one fewer than Yan Gomes. An All-Star last year, the 24 year-old Perez appears to be coming into his own as a premier catcher and should remain one for years to come.

1B Jose Abreu
As much as it pains me to not vote Miguel Cabrera for the All-Star Game, the simple truth is that Jose Abreu's been better. The Cuban rookie's slugged almost twice as many home runs as Cabrera, if you can believe it, despite spending time on the DL and accumulating 40 fewer plate appearances. Abreu also boasts the best slugging percentage in the bigs which, at .624, is a full 82 points higher than Cabrera's. Though the two-time defending MVP has more doubles, a better OBP and as many RBI as Abreu, Cabrera still rates as an inferior hitter on a league and park-adjusted basis. And since neither adds anything in the field or on the basepaths, that's all that matters. With more than three million votes and counting, though, Miggy's going to get the start anyways.

2B Ian Kinsler
A few weeks ago I would have said Brian Dozier, but his recent funk (.172/.304/.190 and no home runs since June 14th) has put a serious hurting on his numbers, opening the door for Robinson Cano and Jose Altuve. Cano, the leading vote-getter at the keystone, is clearly the flashier name. He's having a fine season and isn't a poor choice by any means, but his struggles in the power, speed, and defense departments have diminished his value from superstar into merely a great player. The starting start belong to Altuve, who leads the American league in stolen bases (37) and batting average (.343) in addition to racking up the most hits in baseball (118). Because of his all-around contributions, the Dustin Pedroia-sized Altuve has been more valuable than Cano.

And then there's Ian Kinsler, who in some respects is having a better season than Altuve. He's hit for more power and played better defense, so he's been slightly better based on wins above replacement. He also has more star appeal as a three-time All-Star who was traded for Prince Fielder straight up last fall. Altuve's been a slightly better hitter and baserunner, but Kinsler's defensive advantage (which works out to be at least one win) more than compensates, making him the top choice by a nose. At almost any other position I'd vote for Altuve given his offensive edge, but second base is too important to overlook Kinsler's superior glovework there, as well as the fact that he's hit almost as well as Altuve.

3B Josh Donaldson
His recent slump notwithstanding, Donaldson is still the clear choice at the hot corner. Last year's breakout leads the position in home runs, RBI and runs and, according to Baseball-Reference, has been the American League's second most valuable player behind only Mike Trout. A lot of that value stems from his terrific defense at third, which should net him his first Gold Glove award at year's end. While Kyle Seager, Adrian Beltre, and Todd Frazier have been better hitters, no major league third baseman has matched his two-way contributions this year.

SS Alexei Ramirez
Sentimental value aside, Derek "Don't Call Me Replacement Level" Jeter has not been All-Star caliber this year. I have no problem with Derek Jeter being on the team as a reserve--it is his last season, after all--but he does not deserve to start even in what is shaping up to be a poor season for American League shortstops. There's no obvious, slam-dunk pick here, but Alexei Ramirez seems to have the strongest case seeing as how he leads AL shortstops in home runs (8--tied with Asdrubal Cabrera and Brad Miller), slugging percentage, OPS, and wOBA. In addition to batting a rock solid .294/.327/.421, he's also stolen 14 bases in 17 attempts and played all of Chicago's 86 games. Cases can be made for Erick Aybar and Alcides Escobar, whose numbers don't look all that different from Ramirez's, but in the end I'm voting for Ramirez because he's been the slightly better hitter and is more of an established star.

OF Mike Trout
The American League's most valuable player and OPS leader needs no introduction, or a case to be made in defense of why he deserves to start in the All-Star Game.

OF Jose Bautista
After a couple of injury-plagued seasons, Joey Bats appears to be back to his 2010-2011 self. In addition to supplying his usual power numbers, he leads the American League in OBP at .431 and his 60 walks lead the sport, making Bautista an easy choice for his fifth straight All-Star trip. I'm surprised to see he's the top vote-getter in baseball this year.

OF Adam Jones
After a mediocre first two months, Jones has been on fire since the calendar flipped to June. Since June 1st he's batted .353/.383/.664 with 10 of his 16 home runs and 23 of his 52 RBI, raising his batting line on the year to an All-Star caliber .307/.330/.510. I gave Michael Brantley and the always underrated Alex Gordon some thought here, but Gordon can't match Jones' offensive production and Brantley, because he plays a corner outfield spot, is less valuable defensively. Neverthless, it doesn't look like Jones is going to get a starting nod anyways, seeing as how he trails Yoenis Cespedes and Melky Cabrera for the final outfield spot. If Jones had his month of June in April, I doubt that would be the case.

DH Edwin Encarnacion
Close call between him and Nelson Cruz, who share the major league home run lead with Jose Abreu, but I'm giving the nod to E-5 (I guess E-3 now that he's become a butcher at first base) for leading the majors in home runs, RBI, extra base hits and total bases. His raw OPS is also more than 50 points higher than Cruz's, which explains his clear advantage in wRC+ (166 to 147). Unfortunately Cruz has almost twice as many votes as Encarnacion, who's languishing in fourth place behind David Ortiz and Victor Martinez as well, so it's possible he might not even make the team. Hopefully John Farrell selects him as a reserve, because there's no excuse for him not to be there.

50 Homer Dreams

Balls are flying off the bats of Abreu (pictured), Cruz, and Encarnacion.
But can they keep it up? (Chicago CBS Local)

At the halfway point of the season and three players, all American Leaguers, are on pace to finish the season with approximately 50 home runs.

Considering that the past six seasons have produced only two 50-homer campaigns--Jose Bautista's out-of-nowhere 54 in 2010 and Chris Davis's equally surprising 53 last year--it's doubtful that even one of them will reach the 50 homer plateau. But as it stands, all three are on track to do so or at least come close, and that alone is reason enough to stop and take notice.

Atop the leaderboards are Nelson Cruz and Jose Abreu, both with 26 bombs under their belts after going deep yesterday to break a three-way tie with Edwin Encarnacion, who's still stuck on 25. All are on pace to establish career highs, if not reach the 50 home run benchmark that defines a truly historic offensive campaign (well, unless you're Brady Anderson).

Baseball has not had multiple hitters with 50 or more home runs in the same season since 2007, when Alex Rodriguez (54) and Prince Fielder (50) both cleared the half-century mark. To find the last time two American Leaguers did so, you'd have to go back more than a decade to 2002, when A-Rod ripped 57 and Jim Thome tagged 52.

Three hitters exceeding 50 home runs in the same season is exceptionally rare, so much so that it's only happened twice in baseball history (which, if I'm not mistaken, dates back to the stone age). Both times performance enhancing drugs were involved, of course. The most recent occurrence was in 2001, when an "enhanced" Barry Bonds belted 73 to break Mark McGwire's single season record and eclipse fellow National Leaguers Sammy Sosa (64) and Luis Gonzalez (57). The only other time a trio topped 50 was in another monumental season for long balls; 1998, when McGwire mashed 70, Sosa socked 66, and Ken Griffey Jr hammered 56 in the most exciting home run race since Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris duked it out for Babe Ruth's record back in the summer of 1961.

Abreu, Cruz, and Encarnacion are all great power hitters, but certainly not on the Hall of Fame levels of those aforementioned stars. Which begs the question: can any of these guys reach 50 home runs, let alone all three?

Cruz, the oldest of the bunch at 34, appears to be the long shot due to his age and the fact that he's never even hit 35 home runs in any season. He also must contend with the tough pitching staffs of the AL East, which boasts dominant hurlers such as Masahiro Tanaka, Jon Lester, and David Price, among others. Lastly, he's historically struggled in August, in which he has the fewest home runs and second-lowest OPS of any month, meaning he's a good bet to tail off in the second half.

That said, Cruz does a great job of getting the ball in the air with more fly balls than ground balls to date, an approach well-suited to a homer-friendly park like Camden Yards, where Cruz plays half his games. Additionally his 24.3 percent HR/FB rate, a career high, is pretty reasonable considering that he's been over 21 percent three times before, including last year. So while I wouldn't bet on Cruz, I wouldn't count him out just yet, either.

For Encarnacion, this year could be shaping up to be a repeat of last year, when he also went yard 25 times in the first half, only to fade down the stretch and end the season at 36. Still, he does have more home runs than anyone since the start of the 2012 season, and he's also two and a half years younger than Cruz, who also hails from the Dominican Republic. The notoriously streaky first baseman will need to avoid another month like his April (two taters, .413 SLG) or replicate something approximating his monster month of May (18 dingers, .763 SLG). Like Cruz, Encarnacion also does a great job of lifting fly balls, with nearly half of his batted balls qualifying as such. His HR/FB, just south of 20 percent, is a career high but still has room to grow, especially during the summer months when the ball tends to fly out of ballparks.

As for Abreu, no one really knows what he's capable of. It is his first season, after all, which means it's probably only a matter of time before he endures a prolonged slump, as his 73/18 K/BB ratio seems to suggest. There's also no way he'll be able to sustain his current HR/FB rate, which is currently pushing up against 36 percent. He'll need to start hitting more fly balls to balance out his inevitable regression in that department, for his fly ball rate is currently lower than his HR/FB rate, which just screams fluke.

Then again, the Cuban rookie needed just 71 games to bash his 26 home runs, so with a full slate of games in the second half it's not unreasonable to think he'll at least match that number, if not exceed it. His future is the hardest to predict, but he's done nothing except set the world on fire since his debut back in April. it doesn't hurt that he calls the homer-friendly U.S. Cellular Field home. He's also just 27, in the heart of his prime and at the peak of his powers, so who's to say he can't hit 50? For now, at least, McGwire's rookie record of 49 four-baggers appears to be in jeopardy, as does Albert Belle's franchise record of the same number.

If I had to bet on one to cross the 50-homer threshold, I'd pick Abreu simply because his raw power is so ridiculous. Cruz and Encarnacion are playing at their full potential, but there's a possibility, however slight, that Abreu hasn't reached his yet and could get even better with experience, a frightening proposition for any person who throws a baseball for a living. The sky's the limit for him, assuming he can avoid another trip to the Disabled List this year. Hopefully he's one and done.

Speaking of the DL, Cruz is always a health-risk, and frankly I wouldn't be surprised if he fell short of 40 even without getting hurt. Encarnacion's not a model of durability either: like Cruz, he has only one with season with more than 150 games played. I'm also not convinced he has 25 more homers in him this year, especially given his propensity for withering cold spells, but fully ackowledge that a great month of July could put him close to 40 with a third of the season left to play.

But regardless of where they end up, all three have put together marvelous first halves worthy of All-Star recognition. They're definitely worth keeping an eye on as the summer progresses, because if all three maintain their current paces they'll become the first trio of American Leaguers to hit 50 home runs in the same season. That would be pretty cool.

Red Sox Offense First Half Review

The driving force behind Boston's sterling first half has been its potent offense, which leads the major leagues in runs, doubles, and OPS.

C Jarrod Saltalamacchia
After back-to-back middling seasons as Boston's backstop/Jason Varitek's replacement backstop. Salty seems to have settled in and looks more comfortable with the pitching staff. He's improved with the stick as well, even if he isn't hitting for as much power as he did during 2011-'12, when he smashed 41 home runs with a .224 ISO.  It's troubling that he's fanned in more than one third of his plate appearances so far and has benefited from a fluky .387 BABiP. He's compensated by already establishing a new career high in doubles and boosting on-base percentage nearly 50 points thanks to a much improved walk rate. After posting a .288 OBP in consecutive seasons he's been more selective at the plate, a relief for those who feared he was nothing more than a J.P. Arencibia type.

1B Mike Napoli
The returns on him have been good so far, even though he's nowhere near the player Adrian Gonzalez was in his brief stint with the Sox. The degenerative hip condition that scared Boston into restructuring his contract hasn't been an issue for Napoli, who's been in the lineup almost everyday and provided his usual power and on-base ability. His 2011 aberration notwithstanding, Napoli is never going to be Manny Ramirez, but he's formed a strong 1-2 punch with David Ortiz in the heart of Boston's order. He's had his share of ups and downs, with a nasty two month long slump of .242/.343/.331 nestled between his red-hot first month and monster July. Like Saltalamacchia, he's likely to see some regression if and when his .383 BABiP comes back to Earth, especially since Napoli is walking less and striking out more often than ever before. Perhaps the most surprising thing about his season so far is that he's hit better on the road (.832 OPS) than he has at Fenway (.819). He also has a healthy RBI total despite not performing particularly well with men on base, so if that changes he'll likely make a run at his first 100 RBI season.

2B Dustin Pedroia
Pedroia's bounced back nicely from a "down" 2012 and just received a contract extension that will keep the former MVP in Beantown through 2021. More on that to come.

3B Jose Iglesias
Will Middlebrooks, the Opening Day third baseman and heir apparent to Kevin Youkilis, was such a black hole on offense (63 OPS+) that he needed a demotion to Pawtucket. That allowed Iglesias, a shortstop by trade, to man the hot corner while Drew plays short. The 23 year-old Iglesias has become the early frontrunner to win American League Rookie of the Year thanks to his sensational defense and unsustainable batting average. His .343 mark looks a lot less impressive given that more than 81 percent of his hits are singles and is guaranteed to fall along with his .393 BABiP. In fact, his inevitable regression to the mean is already well underway. Over the past month he's been the all-glove no-stick ballplayer he's always been, batting just .227 with one extra base hit--a double. For all his good luck and infield singles, he's still not a capable major league hitter and probably never will be. Xander Bogaerts is the team's future at shortstop.

SS Stephen Drew
J.D. Drew's little brother has been a disappointment so far, bearing little resemblance to the All-Star caliber player he was with Arizona. Showed signs of life with a solid June, only to miss three weeks with hamstring tightness that derailed his momentum. He's always been more of a second half player, with a career OPS 54 points better after the All-Star Break than before it, so hopefully he'll find his June swing and be fine going forward.

LF Daniel Nava
The miracle worker's evolved from a feel good story into a legitimate All-Star candidate. He carried the team on his back during the season's first three weeks, helping Boston jump out to a fast start. Since then he's continued to drive in runs while maintaining a strong OBP. Suffice it to say, Nava's provided much more than anyone could've possibly hoped for at the beginning of the year.

CF Jacoby Ellsbury
The major league stolen base leader has recovered from a sluggish start, boosting his batting average above .300 on the season. He's posting the best walk rate of his career which, combined with his excellent batting average, has him primed to score 100 runs for just the second time in his career. His three month drought between longballs proves that his bizarre power surge was indeed an aberration, but then again it's hard to go yard when you're hitting nearly two balls on the ground for every one you lift into the air. The speedster's recouped some of that lost value by being more aggressive and efficient on the basepaths, swiping bags at a 92.5 percent clip. More than anything, health has been the key to his success, as he's already played more games in 2013 than he did in 2010 and 2012 combined.

RF Shane Victorino
The 32 year-old has had his issues staying on the field, missing 34 games already. But when he's played he's been more than capable. In addition to supplying plenty of his plus defense and baserunning, he's been better at the plate than he was last year thanks to better results batting from the left side. That's allowed Farrell to bat him out of the two hole in 60 of his 70 games, allowing Victorino to be a table-setter instead of sliding him down in the order (what happened to Carl Crawford).

DH David Ortiz
Despite opening the season on the DL, Ortiz picked up where he left off in 2012 by getting off to a torrid start. Big Papi has far and away been the team's best hitter all year, leading the club in most offensive categories and anchoring the heart of Boston's order.

The bench
Mike Carp has been spectacular and Jonny Gomes is coming around. Otherwise, there isn't really too much to say.