Red Sox Pitching First Half Review

Why are the Red Sox sitting at .500 more than halfway through the season?  Since the offense is second only to the Rangers in runs scored, it's clear that the culprit for Boston's sustained mediocrity is the pitching staff.  But it's not fair to point fingers at the bullpen, which has been phenomenal since April.  No; the blame lies with the same guys who were guzzling beers, stuffing their faces with fried chicken and playing videogames in the comfy clubhouse confines last year while the Sox were choking away their huge Wild Card lead.  The starting pitching, or lack thereof, sunk their playoff aspirations last year and is at it again in 2012. To be fair, the pitching vastly improved throughout the first half:
April 11-11  5.54 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 1.95 K/BB ratio
May  15-14  3.93 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 2.16 K/BB ratio
June  15-12  3.31 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 4.17 K/BB ratio
So as you can see the pitching was abysmal in April, slightly above average in May and stellar in June.  Despite the tough schedule in front of them, Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz are all healthy again for the first time in a month.  So if that Big Three can pitch like they're supposed to and string together some strong starts, than this team will finally get rolling and make a second half surge similar to the one the '04 team made in the wake of the Nomar Garciaparra trade.  Even so, I'm not convinced the staff has enough guns this year to make a serious postseason run, and I can't beleive Bobby Valentine says he doesn't think the team needs another starting pitcher.  They needed one last Novemeber, and they still need one now.  Let's see if Cherington can work some magic at the trade deadline and bring in a Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza or Wandy Rodriguez.  Maybe he can spare a couple of Boston's 300 outfielders.

SP Josh Beckett (4-7, 4.43 ERA)
The problem with Beckett is that he's paid and expected to be a number one starter but the reality is that he's always pitched more like a number two.  His reputation as a big game pitcher stems from his impressive postseason resume (much like Curt Schilling), but during the regular season he's not an elite hurler by any means.  Beckett has just one top-five Cy Young finish to his credit, and in his eleven seasons prior to this one he's had three--2005, 2007 and 2011--when he pitched like an ace.  His career ERA is 3.87 and he's never been exceptionally durable, either (remember Golfgate?).  I bring this up because I think people still expect too much out of him, even though by now we know what he is; a good, sometimes great pitcher, but not somebody who can lead a staff (Lester, who's been much better and more consistent since 2008, can).  But why has he regressed so much after an outstanding 2011 season, when he posted a career best 2.89 ERA and 1.03 WHIP?  For starters, he really hasn't pitched as badly as his numbers suggest.  Back in May I wrote about how Beckett's stats were inflated by a pair of early season shellackings. While he hasn't earned a win since May 20th, that's hardly his fault; Boston's lineup has let him down, averaging just two runs per game over his next five starts. Then there was that shaky start against the Yankees before the Break.  It was a microcosm of his season in that he gets rocked early (five runs allowed in the first inning) but settles down and pitches well afterwards. There' evidence that he's been unlucky, too. His FIP is 3.69, almost perfectly in line with his career 3.68 figure, and his xFIP is 3.98, almost half a run below his ERA. His 67.1 LOB% is the second lowest of his career (well below the league average of 72 percent).    His 1.20 WHIP is still quite good and leads the rotation.  Still, the 32 year-old isn't quite the same pitcher he was in his prime.  His fastball velocity is down to 91.8 miles per hour, two full MPH below his career average. As a result, he's throwing fewer fastballs and is relying on more cutters, a risky trade-off given that cutters can easily tail over the heart of the plate or out of the strike zone if the pitcher isn't locating them well.  The diminished velocity probably explains why his K/9 rate sits at a pedestrian 6.5, two full batters beneath his 8.5 career mark coming into 2012.  His line drive rate is up because he's not missing bats like he used to, but all things considered he should show marked improvement in the second half.  ZiPS has him projected to go 5-3 with a 3.80 ERA the rest of the way, and that sounds about right.  This afternoon he takes the hill in the rubber game against fellow big-game pitcher James Shields in Tampa Bay.

SP Jon Lester (5-6, 4.49 ERA)
Lester is supposed to be the ace of the staff, and it's safe to say the lefty didn't pitch like one during the first half.  But here's the thing; despite the disappointing numbers he really hasn't been that bad.  Like Beckett, Lester has been undone by two very poor outings; his April 17th start against Texas (an 18-3 drubbing) and his May 25th outing against the Rays.  Both came at Fenway, a nightmare for southpaws, against great teams. It happens to the best of 'em.  His 3.58 FIP and 3.61 xFIP are slightly better than his career averages.  He's trimmed a full batter off his walk rate, and his 2.4 BB/9 ratio represents the best mark of his career. His 3.13 K/BB rate is the best it's been since 2009.  As with Beckett, there are also signs that luck hasn't been on his side in the early going.  His 66.9 strand rate is far and away the worst of his career.  So is his bloated .326 BABiP, which explains why his H/9 rate has spiked from 7.8 last season to 9.8 this year.  All of his other periperhals look fine, so expect some regression to the mean over the next few months.  The only concern I have is that, like Beckett, his line drive rate has risen because his K/9 rate has fallen off considerably.  It's dipped three seasons in a row now, plunging from an elite 10.0 in '09 to a decent 7.5 this year.  Unlike Beckett, Lester's throwing fewer cutters this year and has become more of a fastball-changeup pitcher, but there's only a seven MPH difference between the two (ideally you aim for ten).  He's not the Cy Young candidate many thought he would be, but he's better than this.  I predict a strong turnaround from Lester in the second half.  ZiPs agrees with me, as the workhorse is projected to go 7-3 with a 3.54 ERA from this point forward.


SP Clay Buchholz (8-3, 5.54 ERA)
The Sox were counting on Buchholz, who missed the entire second half last year with back problems, to re-solidify the rotation as the number three starter after Lester and Beckett.  Perhaps the 27 year-old was still a little rusty after the layoff, because he endured a slump of Tim Lincecum proportions to open the season.  It was tough to watch as he allowed at least five earned runs in each of his first six starts as opponents teed off on him for ten long balls and raked at a .343/.428/.618 clip.  For all intents and purposes, he turned every opposing batter into Lou Gehrig.   His ERA ballooned to 9.09, meaning he had more earned runs than innings pitched.  Because Boston's bats backed him with incredible run support--a whopping 8.5 runs per game--he escaped April with a 3-1 record.  But he couldn't escape the scrutinty of irate fans calling for his removal from the rotation, but Buchholz held on to his job by turning his season around in impressive fashion.  Over his next seven starts he settled down and pitched like he did in 2010, the year he put everything together, made the All-Star team and finished sixth in the Cy Young race.  Over that span he maintained a tidy 2.83 ERA, averaged nearly seven innings per start allowed just four home runs.  Won all four of his June starts and was on a roll before esophagitis felled him for nearly a month, derailing his comeback.  Returned from his DL stint with a strong outing against David Price yesterday afternoon, allowing just five Rays to reach base as he punched out eight and worked his way into the seventh inning.  But with the Sox clinging to a 3-2 lead, Valentine yanked his starter after 87 pitches, ordered Hideki Matsui (.175/.241/.263) intentionally walked to load the bases and then watched Matt Albers surrender a pair of runs, wasting Buchholz's outing in the process  I'm convinced the rocky start is behind him and have faith he'll continue to pitch the way he has over the past two months. 

SP Felix Doubront (9-4, 4.41 ERA)
The 24 year-old southpaw has performed much better than expected in his first full season as a starter. He's helped stabilize the back of the rotation, the fatal flaw during last September's historic collapse.   But who would have thought the guy with three career starts coming into the season would be leading the rotation in wins, ERA, ERA+, strikeouts, and K/9 at the break? His 9.1 K/9 rate is especially impressive, fifth best in the American League and better than elite hurlers such as C.C. Sabathia and Justin Verlander. But other than the strikeouts, there's not a whole lot to get excited about.  in every other area he grades out as league average.   The problem with Doubront is that he doesn't go deep into games. He almost always leaves after six and has completed the seventh inning just once--in a 10-2 rout of the Marlins a month ago--so his average start lasts about five and two-thirds innings. He can be wild at times and needs to be more efficient; he reached 100 pitches in just eight of his 17 starts.  Was one of the few Red Sox pitchers who got roughed up in June, to the tune of a 5.83 ERA as opponents battered him for a .918 OPS. After allowing just three home runs in his first eight starts he's served up a dozen over his past nine turns. He's never thrown more than 121 innings in any professional season (minors included) so he'll probably wear down as the season progresses.  Overall, as far as number four starters go he's pretty solid. Nothing special, but leaps and bounds better than John Lackey at about three percent of the price.


SP Daniel Bard (5-6, 5.24 ERA)
Following Tim Wakefield's retirement and injuries to Lackey and Matsuzaka, the Red Sox once again lacked depth in the starting rotation. Instead of spending more money on C.J. Wilson, Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson or Roy Oswalt, the team turned to their former setup man. Let's just say that didn't work out as planned.  His velocity suffered, as expected, but his command totally abandoned him. It got so bad that instead of just returning the struggling Bard to the bullpen, where he belongs after thriving there for three years, the team flat-out demoted him to Pawtucket in early June to figure things out and build his confidence back up.  I wanted Bard to replace Papelbon as the team's closer, and was never totally on board with the idea of converting him to a starting pitcher in the first place.  There were plenty of reasons why it was a bad idea; he almost flamed out as a starter in the minors, lacked an effective third pitch and wilted down the stretch last year. The Rangers make it look easy given their success with Wilson, Alexi Ogando and Neftali Feliz, but the reality is that most pitchers can't handle the transition.  Throwing 15 pitches against three or four guys in one inning is totally different than having to pace yourself, work through the whole lineup a few times and spread 100 pitches over six innings.  Bard's a reliever at heart, and hopefully he can return to form when he's recalled and salvage something out of this lost season.  Worst case scenario, he's never the same and becomes this team's version of Joba Chamberlain. 


SP Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-3, 6.65 ERA)
Currently collecting dust on the shelf with a right upper trapezius strain, but that should come as no surprise.  Dice-K has been perpetually injured these past four seasons, and when he's healthy enough to pitch he's been terrible.  Now I know what Yankee fans went through with Carl Pavano, another massive waste of money.  I'm going to stop myself before I go off on a red-faced rant because if you don't have anything nice to say, then you shouldn't say anything at all. 


SP John Lackey (+)
Out for the season. And while you hate to pay a guy nearly 16 million bucks to spend the year rehabbing from Tommy John, it's better than paying him that much to be worth -2.1 bWAR, as he was last year.  Hopefully he can use the time off to clear his head and come back strong next year.


CL Alfredo Aceves (20 saves, 4.23 ERA)
He's no Jonathan Papelbon, but for one tenth the cost he doesn't have to be.  His numbers are still inflated by the first two weeks of the season; since his meltdown during the infamous "rock bottom" game against the Yankees on April 21st, he's sporting a 2.81 ERA and opponents are batting just .216/.308/.364 against him.  Traditionally a middle reliever, Aceves originally seemed to be a strange choice to replace Bailey even though he was one of the team's top relievers last season.  He lacks the bulldog mentality and electric arm typical of most closers, but he's adapted and has held his own.  He now leads the majors in games finished and has settled into the ninth-inning role quite nicely.  Most importantly, he's earned Valentine's trust.  If Ace continues to pitch well throughout the rest of the summer, he deserves to keep the job if/when Bailey returns

The 'pen
What looked like a crippling weakness in the early going has transformed into one of the team's biggest strengths.  Despite losing their dominant eighth and ninth inning duo from last year, the relief corps is one of the best in the majors. 36 year-old Scott Atchison (just placed on the DL--another one bites the dust) had been the team's most effective reliever, hands down, and yet at the same time was also the bullpen's unsung hero.  Albers (2.27 ERA) has enjoyed another strong first half, but don't forget he had a 2.09 ERA at the end of July last year and wound up with a 4.43 ERA (9.97 from August 1st on).  Based on his 4.81 career ERA and current 1.77 K/BB rate, his success is unsustainable.  Looks like former first round draft pick/failed starting pitcher prospect Andrew Miller has finally found his calling as a middle reliever.  He provides a sorely needed left arm to supplement Franklin Morales.  Not a fan of Vicente Padilla.  Wondering if Mark Melancon will ever be recalled from the minors. Still waiting on Andrew Bailey.

6 Disappointing Teams

Arizona Diamondbacks-After winning 94 games and running away with the division last year, the D-Backs are three games under .500 behind the much more formidable Dodgers and Giants

Who's to blame? Justin Upton's protracted slump, Miguel Montero not hitting for power, Ian Kennedy's regression, Ryan Roberts, prolonged DL stints by Chris Young and Daniel Hudson, still missing Stephen Drew at shortstop, J.J. Putz's ninth inning struggles, Josh Collementer pitching his way out of the starting rotation

Boston Red Sox-Devastated by injuries and plagued by inconsistent pitching, the Old Towne Team find themselves looking up at the rest of the American League Beast

Who's to Blame? In a nutshell, it's been the pitching.  Jon Lester not performing like an ace, Adrian Gonzalez leaving about a million runners on base, Kevin Youkilis being ineffective when he's not hurt, the front office failing to reinforce a thin starting rotation by adding a Roy Oswalt or Edwin Jackson type, whoever thought moving Daniel Bard to the rotation instead of having him inherit Jonathan Papelbon's vacant closer role (hello Alfredo Aceves) and of course, the slew of injuries to Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury, Cody Ross, John Lackey, Andrew Bailey, Dice-K, Youk, Pedroia, et. al.  Not a big fan of Bobby V, either

Detroit Tigers-The AL Central was theirs for the taking after landing Prince Fielder during the offseason, but they're five games beneath .500

Who's to blame? A thin lineup missing Victor Martinez with black holes in Ryan Raburn and Brennan Boesch, Jhonny Peralta coming and Alex Avila coming back to Earth, terrible defense with Peralta at short, Fielder and Miguel Cabrera manning the corners and Delmon Young in left, not much pitching to back up Justin Verlander with Max Scherzer's maddening inconsistency, Doug Fister's injury and Rick Porcello's suckiness, shaky bullpen highlighted by Jose Valverde suffering from the Brad Lidge year-after effect

Los Angeles Angels-Looked prepared to make a run at the Rangers after inking the best free agent hitter and pitcher in Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson, but have just a .500 record to show for it

Who's to blame-Pujols pressing too much, zero offensive production from Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar, Alberto Callaspo, Vernon Wells, Peter Bourjos, Maicer Izturis, Torii Hunter, and whoever catches for them nowadays (and it's not Mike Napoli), so pretty much the entire lineup except for Mark Trumbo and Mike Trout, slow start from Dan Haren, Jered Weaver on the DL, Ervin Santana battling gopheritis, mediocre bullpen

Milwaukee Brewers-The Brew Crew, led by NL MVP Ryan Braun, advanced to the NLCS last year but now find themselves in fourth place, just two games up on the Houston Astros

Who's to blame-Horrible pitching, especially in the 'pen, Mat Gamel is no Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks nowhere to be found, Nyjer Morgan no longer a sparkplug, injury derailing Jonathan Lucroy, slow starts from Aramis Ramirez and Yovani Gallardo, unproductive fourth and fifth starters with the well-traveled Randy Wolf looking done at 35

Philadelphia Phillies-The NL version of the Red Sox have been hammered by injuries to key players and are toiling in last place

Who's to blame-AGE (even the manager), the lineup is about as bad as everyone feared, and the pitching has fallen far short of expectations, inability to replace Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins and Placido Polanco look old, Shane Victorino replicating 2010's production instead of 2011's, Cliff Lee comes back but Roy Halladay (who'd been surprisingly average) is lost for the summer

What the Red Sox should be thankful for

1. John Lackey will miss the entire 2012 season.  Hopefully some extended time off will allow the 33 year-old to regroup mentally and come back with a clear head for the 2013 season.  He's been a colossal bust thus far in Boston, and the Sox need him to be a servicable pitcher, at the very least, over the final two years of his deal.

2. Daisuke Matsuzaka, who has given this city more headaches than starts since 2009, is entering the final year of his six year, $52 million deal.

3. The bullpen has a natural replacement for recently departed Jonathan Papelbon in Daniel Bard

4. J.D. Drew is a free-agent, so Boston no longer has to pay him $14 million a year for 65 RBI and an equal number of at-bats ending in called strike threes.

5. Josh Beckett, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Dustin Pedroia all bounced back from injury marred 2010s and seem to be fine going forward.  Hopefully the same can be said for Clay Buchholz.

6. Jarrod Saltalamacchia proved he can be a solid everyday backstop and capable replacement for Captain Jason Varitek

Red Sox Pitching First Half Review

Boston entered the 2011 with the same rotation from last year backed with a much deeper bullpen, thanks to offseason acquisitions Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler.  Both have disappointed, however, and overall the pitching has been just a touch above average when compared to the rest of the AL.  The Sox rank in the middle of the pack in ERA, saves, homers allowed, and walks allowed.  They do rank third in strikeouts and hits allowed, but are also dead last with one complete game courtesy of Cy Young candidate Josh Beckett.  When one considers Lackey and Matsuzaka's ineffectiveness, Wakefield's age, and injuries to top starters Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, these numbers don't seem so bad.  If Lackey can post a strong second half (as he did last year) and the rotation returns to health, the pitching should improve after the break. 

SP Jon Lester (AS)-Lester has quietly been the team's ace and most consistent pitcher since 2008, and turned in a fine performance in the first half.  He avoided his April struggles this year, getting them out of his system on Opening Day in Texas and ending April with a 2.52 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.  Hit a rough patch in May but bounced back in June and pitched well into the break. His WHIP and ERA mirror last year's, when he finished fourth in the AL Cy Young race, and he's shown a bit more command by trimming half a walk off his BB/9 rate.  Still, there are indications that he has regressed a little from last year. His strikeouts are down a full batter per nine, both his H/9 and HR/9 are up by .5, and his FIP and LOB percentages are up, meaning he's benefitted from some luck so far.  His skills remain intact, though, and he's a strong bet to finish the season strong.  Lester hopes to resume throwing tomorrow, and it wouldn't be surprising if he only missed one start as he nurses his shoulder back to health.

SP Josh Beckett (AS)-Beckett is doing everything he can to make Boston fans forget his abysmal 2010 season.  Spurred by diminishing velocity and strikeout rates, he turned himself into a better pitcher and it shows.  The 2.27 ERA and 0.95 WHIP sparkle, as does his league leading 5.8 H/9 and 4.1 WAR (third most for AL pitchers), yet somehow he only has eight wins.  A force all season, Beckett has reformed a powerful 1-2 punch with Jon Lester and was the only Sox starter to avoid the DL.  Unfortunately, his peripherals indicate he's also been lucky so far and is due for some substantial regression in the second half.  His miniscule .225 BABIP and 5.4% HR/FB both scream luck, as does his 3.16 FIP, 3.70 xFIP, and unsustainable 82.2 LOB%.  He's good, but he's not this good, so that ERA should drift closer to three as the season wears on.

SP Clay Buchholz-His 2010 triple crown stats of 17-7 and microscopic 2.33 ERA made him look like an elite starter last year, but in reality he was extremely lucky and doomed to fall back to earth this season.  He has still pitched well, but he's not going to be the Cy Young candidate that he was last season.  After a rough April (5.33 ERA with more walks than strikeouts), Buchholz hit his stride and has allowed more than three earned runs in a start only once since the calendar flipped to May.  His peripherals are more in line with his career averages this year, and he should continue to be a solid number three starter once he returns from the DL.

SP John Lackey-The numbers are too horrific to be posted here and make his incredibly average 2010 season look like the Mona Lisa in comparison.  In fairness, he's struggled with personal issues off the field and spent most of May on the DL, and I'm rooting for him to turn it around in the second half.  Unfortunately, his skills appear to be in decline with his walks and strikeouts trending in the wrong direction.  It looks like he left his prime years behind in California when he signed that five year, $82 million dollar contract two winters ago.  On the bright side, FanGraphs say he has been unlucky thus far and he pitched great in two of his last three starts before the break, so there is some hope he can bounce back like he did last year.  He needs to start pitching better if he wants to avoid becoming the team's more expensive pitching equivalent of JD Drew.

SP Tim Wakefield-The 44 year-old looked done after last season, but he's pitched better this year and stepped up when Dice-K and Lackey went down.  His results accurately reflect his value so far, and he should continue to be a decent spot start down the stretch.  The active wins leader only needs two more to reach 200, and I hope he gets them.  Andrew Miller may steal some of his starts, but Wake will still be kicking around during the dog days of August.

SP Daisuke Matsuzaka-The Sox would be wise to trade Dice-K, who's still under contract through the end of next season.  Unfortunately, he has almost no value so we're probably stuck with him, unless Theo can convince some optimistic GM to forget the back of Matsuzaka's baseball card and take a chance on his World Baseball Classic heroics (Dice-K will have another chance to shine in the upcoming 2012 WBC).  Since a solid rookie campaign and an excellent sophomore follow-up, he's been absolutely dreadful.  In the 44 starts from '09-'11 he has a 5.03 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and averaged just over five innings pitched per start.  He's still only 30 years old and is young enough to turn it around a la Bartolo Colon and Erik Bedard, but he's just too wild and inconsistent. 

The 'pen-Don't let the 3.93 ERA and rising hit rate fool you; Papelbon still has nasty stuff.  His 12.5 K/9 is the second highest of his career and he's cut his walk rate in half from last season.  Paps hasn't lost a game yet after losing seven last year, and his FIP and xFIP suggest his ERA should be much closer to two than four.  Bard continues to prove why he's the closer of the future, as he's been lights-out with a 2.05 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and a strikeout per inning.  Aceves has pitched well and can deliver the occasional spot start, while Albers sports a nifty 2.55 ERA, a figure that doubles as his weight when you remove the decimal point.  Wheeler and Jenks have been bad with ERAs above 5 and 6, respectively, but overall the bullpen is stronger and more reliable than last year.