Buchholz Back

Buchholz was dealing in his return to action last night (ESPN)

Clay Buchholz made his first start since June 8th last night, shutting down the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field in a 2-0 Red Sox win.

Buchholz, who missed more than three months with a strained neck, looked sharp in his pitch count-shortened return. He tossed five scoreless innings, allowing just three hits (all singles) and one walk while strking out six, reminding everyone why he was the AL Cy Young favorite before landing on the Disabled List.

Buchholz needed to be at the top of his game, too, given how well David Price pitched. Price was perfect until the fifth, when Mike Napoli doubled off the top of the centerfield wall to lead off the frame. Jonny Gomes drove him home with a single up the middle, then took second on Demond Jennings' wild throw to the plate. Daniel Nava bunted him over to third, allowing him to score easily on Jarrod Saltalamacchia's long sacrifice fly.

Boston's bullpen took it from there. Craig Breslow followed Buchholz with a pair of shutout innings, and Junichi Tazawa got the Sox two outs closer to victory in the eighth before Yunel Escobar doubled. That brought the tying run to the plate in the form of rookie sensation Wil Myers. Not taking any chances, John Farrell called upon Koji Uehara to retire the phenom.

Uehara, as he always does, came through, inducing Myers to pop out harmlessly into foul territory. The Red Sox closer came back out for the ninth and shut the door on the Rays, retiring Ben Zobrist, Evan Longoria and Matthew Joyce in order.

While beating Tampa Bay always feels good, it was made even sweeter by Buchholz's dominant performance. He looked fully recovered from the injury issues that sidelined him for most of the summer. A healthy and effective Buchholz will make a big difference in the postseason, giving the Sox a true ace at the top of their rotation. When he's pitching well, the Red Sox are a much more dangerous team, and I feel a lot better about the Boston's World Series chances now that he's back.

Red Sox Pitching First Half Review

After Red Sox starting pitchers posted a franchise worst 5.19 ERA last year, they have a engineered a massive turnaround under new manager/former pitching coach John Farrell. Their 3.81 ERA is nearly a run and a half better than it was last season, when the club lost 93 games after falling behind early and often. Though Boston's pitching staff is merely average, ranking near the middle of the pack in most categories, it performs well enough to keep the team in games and allow the team's elite offense to carry the day. Just as abysmal starting pitching was behind Boston's historic 2011 collapse and terrible 2012, healthy, effective starters combined with solid relief work have gone a long way towards restoring the team's winning ways.

SP Jon Lester (8-6, 4.58 ERA)
It's been a rough first half for Lester, who's pitched almost as poorly as he did during his pedestrian 2012. What's even more frustrating is that he got off to such a great start, seemingly "fixed" by Farrell. Over the past two months, however, he's been maddeningly inconsistent and ineffective.
Therough May 15th (9 starts): 6-0, 2.72 ERA, 3.33 K/BB, 4 HR, .576 OPS, 64 strike %
Since May 15th (11 starts): 2-6, 6.27 ERA, 1.77 K/BB, 11 HR, .883 OPS, 62 strike %
Since his velocity is fine and he's been healthy, the only possible explanation is that Lester hasn't located his pitches well recently. He's throwing fewer strikes, and the strikes he does throw catch too much of the plate. In fact, he's been so hittable that the average opponent transforms into Edwin Encarnacion when he digs in against Lester. By leaving his pitches up in the zone, Lester's inducing fewer fewer grounders and is allowing hitters to elevate the ball, which explains why he's surrendering more long balls. On the whole, Lester (4.02 xFIP) hasn't been quite as bad as his ERA would suggest, but it's not like he's been particularly unfortunate. Bad luck has also played a part in his recent struggles, yes, but he experienced good luck during the season's first six weeks so his luck has more or less evened out. On the bright side, his performance improved considerably during the season's final two months last year, so the hope is that he can turn it around in the second half and help pitch Boston back into the postseason.

SP Clay Buchholz (9-0, 1.71 ERA)
The uber-talented but ever-fragile Buchholz was nothing short of magnificent before a neck injury forced him to the Disabled List in June. Until then he was the frontrunner for the AL Cy Young award. The Red Sox went 11-1 in his 12 starts, probably because he allowed more than two earned runs just once. Incredibly, he allowed just two home runs during those dozen gems. Unfortunately, the All-Star probably won't take the field again until September, the kind of absence that leaves a big hole in the rotation and may ultimately prevent Boston from reaching the postseason.

SP Ryan Dempster (5-8, 4.28 ERA)
Boston's big free agent pitching acquisition has fulfilled his role as a solid midrotation stabilizer. He was great in the early going but has since settled into a steady, reliable innings eater, allowing three earned runs or fewer in nine of his past ten starts. His propensity for allowing too many baserunners (1.45 WHIP) and home runs (1.6/9--the highest of his career) limit him from pitching deep into games (he's averaging less than six innings per start) while keeping his ERA+ at a perfectly average 100. That said, he's held his own against his AL East competition and should continue to provide decent results going forward. Hopefully he can avoid a repeat of his disastrous second half from last season after the Cubs traded him to Texas.

SP John Lackey (7-7, 2.95 ERA)
After bombing in 2011 and missing all of 2012 recovering from Tommy John surgery, Lackey came into 2013 with zero expectations. Certainly nobody was expecting the 34 year-old to pitch the best baseball of his career, but after a rocky start that's exactly what he's done. Lackey's returned to form by keeping the ball down (thus inducing lots of ground balls) and commanding the strike zone. His walk rate has never been lower while his strikeout rate is the highest it's been since 2005. What's more, he's improved his velocity and has gotten stronger as the season's gone on. After completing seven innings just twice in April and May combined, he's finished seven frames six times in the past six weeks. A bit of regression is probably in order--his 80.3 LOB% is well above league average and likely to come down--but his stellar peripherals prove that his turnaround his legit. For instance, his 3.17 xFIP essentially matches his ERA.

SP Felix Doubront (7-3, 3.76 ERA)
Pegged as a breakout candidate after a promising but uneven 2012--his first full season--the hard-throwing southpaw has improved considerably thus far in 2013. Though he's striking out fewer batters than he did last year (diminished velocity is to blame for that), Doubront's been more economical with his pitches and could cross the 200 inning threshold for the first time in his career. Aside from back-to-back six-run outings to open May, he's held opponents to three runs or less in the rest of his starts (16 of 18) this year. He's been especially good at limiting the long ball, serving up just eight dingers on the year. With a 2.59 ERA in his past dozen starts, the 25 year-old appears to be coming into his own as he realizes his exciting potential.

The 'pen (3.97 ERA)
Gone are the days of Jonathan Papelbon, when Boston could count on a shutdown closer to mow down opponents and preserve wins. Joel Hanrahan, a two-time All-Star, was supposed to be that guy, but he pitched poorly and was lost for the season in early May. His setup man Andrew Bailey didn't do much better (and is now done for the year), forcing Farrell to turn to Koji Uehara, who began the season with 14 saves to his name. That lack of closer experience hasn't stopped Uehara from flourishing, and he looks like the solution to Boston's ninth inning problems despite depleting the middle relief corps. Craig Breslow and Junichi Tazawa have been excellent, as was Andrew Miller before he got hurt, but there aren't too many options beyond them. Ben Cherington needs to trade for another reliever or two to shore up the bullpen, but as long as he brings in some help the bullpen should continue to be fine.

Boston Beats Baltimore in Home Opener

Nava puts the Sox ahead with a three-run bomb

Fresh off consecutive series wins over the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays, the first-place Boston Red Sox made their way back to Fenway Park for their home opener against the Baltimore Orioles. The last time the Fenway Faithful saw them, the sorry Red Sox resembled a Triple-A ballclub as they stumbled towards their worst season since 1965.

That was only six months ago, but so much has changed since then that it might as well have been six years ago. Boston's roster is much improved, and given their hot start it's hard not to feel optimistic about their chances in an up-for-grabs division. Even the weather reflected Red Sox Nation's upbeat mood: with warm sunshine drenching their century-old ballpark and a slight breeze blowing in from left field, it was a perfect day for baseball.

The capacity crowd at the Fens was treated to an old-fashioned pitcher's duel between Wei-Yin Chen and Clay Buchholz, watching helplessly as the hurlers traded zeroes for the first six and a half innings. Boston's sluggers were held in check, unable to take advantage of the unseasonably warm weather or the short porch in left. Baltimore's batters were equally baffled, fanning eight times against Buchholz and mustering just three hits--all singles.

In this pitcher's version of a staring contest, it was Chen who blinked first when he seemed to run out of gas in the bottom of the seventh   With his pitch count pushing triple digits, the tiring starter got himself into a jam when Dustin Pedroia singled and Mike Napoli doubled with nobody out.

With two men in scoring position and Will Middlebrooks in the batter's box, just 24 hours removed from a three-homer game north of the border, the Fenway Faithful sprang to life. Things were finally getting interesting, for Middlebrooks appeared to be a good bet to provide some fireworks. But today was not his day; the young slugger struck out for the second time against Chen. He shuffled back to the dugout, head down, his face darkened by the long shadows creeping across the infield.

That brought up Daniel Nava, who with a walk and a single was the only Red Sox player that had given Chen even the slightest bit of trouble. Whatever sorcery Chen had used to confound the rest of Boston's lineup, it wasn't fooling Nava. Sure enough, he got the better of Chen once more, becoming the unlikely hero by swatting a three-run shot over the Monster. When it came down, Boston had itself a 3-0 lead, Chen was done and Fenway Park was rocking like it was 2004.

Given that Buchholz had already logged 113 pitches on the afternoon, John Farrell turned the game over to his bullpen. He used Andrew Bailey as a bridge to the ninth inning, then brought in Joel Hanrahan to close out the win.

Hanrahan had an adventurous last inning not unlike the stressful situations his predecessor, Jonathan Papelbon, created so often during his tenure in Boston.  It started when the red-hot Adam Jones jacked a solo shot--his first homer of the year--to lead off the ninth and get Baltimore on the board. Hanrahan recovered, retiring Chris Davis with a groundout and striking out Matt Wieters.

Then, just when Sox seemed to be in the clear, J.J. Hardy hammered a double to bring the tying run to the plate in the form of Ryan Flaherty. The crowd was growing restless. Even though most Red Sox loyalists have endured countless chokes and meltdowns in their lifetimes, each new wound stings just as much as the one that preceded it. Nevermind Flaherty's thoroughly mediocre batting record--Bucky Dent and Aaron Boone taught Sox fans to never underestimate their opponents, no matter how non-threatening they appear.

Thankfully, the seldom-used second baseman was just as harmless as his numbers suggested. He ended the game by popping out to Middlebrooks in foul territory. The fans breathed a collective sigh of relief, "Dirty Water" echoed through the grandstands, and the Olde Towne Team lined up for congratulatory high-fives.

Baseball is back, and so are the Red Sox.

What the Red Sox should be thankful for

1. John Lackey will miss the entire 2012 season.  Hopefully some extended time off will allow the 33 year-old to regroup mentally and come back with a clear head for the 2013 season.  He's been a colossal bust thus far in Boston, and the Sox need him to be a servicable pitcher, at the very least, over the final two years of his deal.

2. Daisuke Matsuzaka, who has given this city more headaches than starts since 2009, is entering the final year of his six year, $52 million deal.

3. The bullpen has a natural replacement for recently departed Jonathan Papelbon in Daniel Bard

4. J.D. Drew is a free-agent, so Boston no longer has to pay him $14 million a year for 65 RBI and an equal number of at-bats ending in called strike threes.

5. Josh Beckett, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Dustin Pedroia all bounced back from injury marred 2010s and seem to be fine going forward.  Hopefully the same can be said for Clay Buchholz.

6. Jarrod Saltalamacchia proved he can be a solid everyday backstop and capable replacement for Captain Jason Varitek

Red Sox Pitching First Half Review

Boston entered the 2011 with the same rotation from last year backed with a much deeper bullpen, thanks to offseason acquisitions Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler.  Both have disappointed, however, and overall the pitching has been just a touch above average when compared to the rest of the AL.  The Sox rank in the middle of the pack in ERA, saves, homers allowed, and walks allowed.  They do rank third in strikeouts and hits allowed, but are also dead last with one complete game courtesy of Cy Young candidate Josh Beckett.  When one considers Lackey and Matsuzaka's ineffectiveness, Wakefield's age, and injuries to top starters Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, these numbers don't seem so bad.  If Lackey can post a strong second half (as he did last year) and the rotation returns to health, the pitching should improve after the break. 

SP Jon Lester (AS)-Lester has quietly been the team's ace and most consistent pitcher since 2008, and turned in a fine performance in the first half.  He avoided his April struggles this year, getting them out of his system on Opening Day in Texas and ending April with a 2.52 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.  Hit a rough patch in May but bounced back in June and pitched well into the break. His WHIP and ERA mirror last year's, when he finished fourth in the AL Cy Young race, and he's shown a bit more command by trimming half a walk off his BB/9 rate.  Still, there are indications that he has regressed a little from last year. His strikeouts are down a full batter per nine, both his H/9 and HR/9 are up by .5, and his FIP and LOB percentages are up, meaning he's benefitted from some luck so far.  His skills remain intact, though, and he's a strong bet to finish the season strong.  Lester hopes to resume throwing tomorrow, and it wouldn't be surprising if he only missed one start as he nurses his shoulder back to health.

SP Josh Beckett (AS)-Beckett is doing everything he can to make Boston fans forget his abysmal 2010 season.  Spurred by diminishing velocity and strikeout rates, he turned himself into a better pitcher and it shows.  The 2.27 ERA and 0.95 WHIP sparkle, as does his league leading 5.8 H/9 and 4.1 WAR (third most for AL pitchers), yet somehow he only has eight wins.  A force all season, Beckett has reformed a powerful 1-2 punch with Jon Lester and was the only Sox starter to avoid the DL.  Unfortunately, his peripherals indicate he's also been lucky so far and is due for some substantial regression in the second half.  His miniscule .225 BABIP and 5.4% HR/FB both scream luck, as does his 3.16 FIP, 3.70 xFIP, and unsustainable 82.2 LOB%.  He's good, but he's not this good, so that ERA should drift closer to three as the season wears on.

SP Clay Buchholz-His 2010 triple crown stats of 17-7 and microscopic 2.33 ERA made him look like an elite starter last year, but in reality he was extremely lucky and doomed to fall back to earth this season.  He has still pitched well, but he's not going to be the Cy Young candidate that he was last season.  After a rough April (5.33 ERA with more walks than strikeouts), Buchholz hit his stride and has allowed more than three earned runs in a start only once since the calendar flipped to May.  His peripherals are more in line with his career averages this year, and he should continue to be a solid number three starter once he returns from the DL.

SP John Lackey-The numbers are too horrific to be posted here and make his incredibly average 2010 season look like the Mona Lisa in comparison.  In fairness, he's struggled with personal issues off the field and spent most of May on the DL, and I'm rooting for him to turn it around in the second half.  Unfortunately, his skills appear to be in decline with his walks and strikeouts trending in the wrong direction.  It looks like he left his prime years behind in California when he signed that five year, $82 million dollar contract two winters ago.  On the bright side, FanGraphs say he has been unlucky thus far and he pitched great in two of his last three starts before the break, so there is some hope he can bounce back like he did last year.  He needs to start pitching better if he wants to avoid becoming the team's more expensive pitching equivalent of JD Drew.

SP Tim Wakefield-The 44 year-old looked done after last season, but he's pitched better this year and stepped up when Dice-K and Lackey went down.  His results accurately reflect his value so far, and he should continue to be a decent spot start down the stretch.  The active wins leader only needs two more to reach 200, and I hope he gets them.  Andrew Miller may steal some of his starts, but Wake will still be kicking around during the dog days of August.

SP Daisuke Matsuzaka-The Sox would be wise to trade Dice-K, who's still under contract through the end of next season.  Unfortunately, he has almost no value so we're probably stuck with him, unless Theo can convince some optimistic GM to forget the back of Matsuzaka's baseball card and take a chance on his World Baseball Classic heroics (Dice-K will have another chance to shine in the upcoming 2012 WBC).  Since a solid rookie campaign and an excellent sophomore follow-up, he's been absolutely dreadful.  In the 44 starts from '09-'11 he has a 5.03 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and averaged just over five innings pitched per start.  He's still only 30 years old and is young enough to turn it around a la Bartolo Colon and Erik Bedard, but he's just too wild and inconsistent. 

The 'pen-Don't let the 3.93 ERA and rising hit rate fool you; Papelbon still has nasty stuff.  His 12.5 K/9 is the second highest of his career and he's cut his walk rate in half from last season.  Paps hasn't lost a game yet after losing seven last year, and his FIP and xFIP suggest his ERA should be much closer to two than four.  Bard continues to prove why he's the closer of the future, as he's been lights-out with a 2.05 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and a strikeout per inning.  Aceves has pitched well and can deliver the occasional spot start, while Albers sports a nifty 2.55 ERA, a figure that doubles as his weight when you remove the decimal point.  Wheeler and Jenks have been bad with ERAs above 5 and 6, respectively, but overall the bullpen is stronger and more reliable than last year.