After Red Sox starting pitchers posted a franchise worst 5.19 ERA last year, they have a engineered a massive turnaround under new manager/former pitching coach John Farrell. Their 3.81 ERA is nearly a run and a half better than it was last season, when the club lost 93 games after falling behind early and often. Though Boston's pitching staff is merely average, ranking near the middle of the pack in most categories, it performs well enough to keep the team in games and allow the team's elite offense to carry the day. Just as abysmal starting pitching was behind Boston's historic 2011 collapse and terrible 2012, healthy, effective starters combined with solid relief work have gone a long way towards restoring the team's winning ways.
SP Jon Lester (8-6, 4.58 ERA)
It's been a rough first half for Lester, who's pitched almost as poorly as he did during his pedestrian 2012. What's even more frustrating is that he got off to such a great start, seemingly "fixed" by Farrell. Over the past two months, however, he's been maddeningly inconsistent and ineffective.
Therough May 15th (9 starts): 6-0, 2.72 ERA, 3.33 K/BB, 4 HR, .576 OPS, 64 strike %
Since May 15th (11 starts): 2-6, 6.27 ERA, 1.77 K/BB, 11 HR, .883 OPS, 62 strike %
Since his velocity is fine and he's been healthy, the only possible explanation is that Lester hasn't located his pitches well recently. He's throwing fewer strikes, and the strikes he does throw catch too much of the plate. In fact, he's been so hittable that the average opponent transforms into Edwin Encarnacion when he digs in against Lester. By leaving his pitches up in the zone, Lester's inducing fewer fewer grounders and is allowing hitters to elevate the ball, which explains why he's surrendering more long balls. On the whole, Lester (4.02 xFIP) hasn't been quite as bad as his ERA would suggest, but it's not like he's been particularly unfortunate. Bad luck has also played a part in his recent struggles, yes, but he experienced good luck during the season's first six weeks so his luck has more or less evened out. On the bright side, his performance improved considerably during the season's final two months last year, so the hope is that he can turn it around in the second half and help pitch Boston back into the postseason.
SP Clay Buchholz (9-0, 1.71 ERA)
The uber-talented but ever-fragile Buchholz was nothing short of magnificent before a neck injury forced him to the Disabled List in June. Until then he was the frontrunner for the AL Cy Young award. The Red Sox went 11-1 in his 12 starts, probably because he allowed more than two earned runs just once. Incredibly, he allowed just two home runs during those dozen gems. Unfortunately, the All-Star probably won't take the field again until September, the kind of absence that leaves a big hole in the rotation and may ultimately prevent Boston from reaching the postseason.
SP Ryan Dempster (5-8, 4.28 ERA)
Boston's big free agent pitching acquisition has fulfilled his role as a solid midrotation stabilizer. He was great in the early going but has since settled into a steady, reliable innings eater, allowing three earned runs or fewer in nine of his past ten starts. His propensity for allowing too many baserunners (1.45 WHIP) and home runs (1.6/9--the highest of his career) limit him from pitching deep into games (he's averaging less than six innings per start) while keeping his ERA+ at a perfectly average 100. That said, he's held his own against his AL East competition and should continue to provide decent results going forward. Hopefully he can avoid a repeat of his disastrous second half from last season after the Cubs traded him to Texas.
SP John Lackey (7-7, 2.95 ERA)
After bombing in 2011 and missing all of 2012 recovering from Tommy John surgery, Lackey came into 2013 with zero expectations. Certainly nobody was expecting the 34 year-old to pitch the best baseball of his career, but after a rocky start that's exactly what he's done. Lackey's returned to form by keeping the ball down (thus inducing lots of ground balls) and commanding the strike zone. His walk rate has never been lower while his strikeout rate is the highest it's been since 2005. What's more, he's improved his velocity and has gotten stronger as the season's gone on. After completing seven innings just twice in April and May combined, he's finished seven frames six times in the past six weeks. A bit of regression is probably in order--his 80.3 LOB% is well above league average and likely to come down--but his stellar peripherals prove that his turnaround his legit. For instance, his 3.17 xFIP essentially matches his ERA.
SP Felix Doubront (7-3, 3.76 ERA)
Pegged as a breakout candidate after a promising but uneven 2012--his first full season--the hard-throwing southpaw has improved considerably thus far in 2013. Though he's striking out fewer batters than he did last year (diminished velocity is to blame for that), Doubront's been more economical with his pitches and could cross the 200 inning threshold for the first time in his career. Aside from back-to-back six-run outings to open May, he's held opponents to three runs or less in the rest of his starts (16 of 18) this year. He's been especially good at limiting the long ball, serving up just eight dingers on the year. With a 2.59 ERA in his past dozen starts, the 25 year-old appears to be coming into his own as he realizes his exciting potential.
The 'pen (3.97 ERA)
Gone are the days of Jonathan Papelbon, when Boston could count on a shutdown closer to mow down opponents and preserve wins. Joel Hanrahan, a two-time All-Star, was supposed to be that guy, but he pitched poorly and was lost for the season in early May. His setup man Andrew Bailey didn't do much better (and is now done for the year), forcing Farrell to turn to Koji Uehara, who began the season with 14 saves to his name. That lack of closer experience hasn't stopped Uehara from flourishing, and he looks like the solution to Boston's ninth inning problems despite depleting the middle relief corps. Craig Breslow and Junichi Tazawa have been excellent, as was Andrew Miller before he got hurt, but there aren't too many options beyond them. Ben Cherington needs to trade for another reliever or two to shore up the bullpen, but as long as he brings in some help the bullpen should continue to be fine.
Showing posts with label Lester. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lester. Show all posts
Tuesday, July 23, 2013
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
Sox Start 2013 on Right Foot
October is still a long ways away, but hopes are high after Boston's 8-2 Opening Day win over their arch-rivals at Yankee Stadium. While one win can't erase what happened last year or the nightmarish September that preceded it, it's a start.
Boston's new-look offense battered CC Sabathia to the tune of eight hits and four runs, all of which scored in the second inning, to drive the Yankee ace from the after the fifth inning. Jon Lester also departed after five, but spring training success carried over into the first game of the season. While the Yankees are nowhere near full strength, it was still encouraging to see Lester limit New York to two runs and five hits while striking out seven.
Lester threw 96 pitches before entrusting his 4-2 lead to Boston's bullpen, hailed by many during the preseason as the team's greatest strength. Koji Uehara, Andrew Miller, Andrew Bailey, Junichi Tazawa, and Joel Hanrahan (all expertly deployed by John Farrell) held the Yankees to just one hit--a Travis Hafner single--and no runs over the final four frames to preserve Lester's first win of the season. Meanwhile, the Sox scratched out another run in the seventh, then tagged Joba Chamberlain for three runs in the ninth to put the game away.
New York hadn't suffered an Opening Day loss at home since 1982, kickstarting a disappointing season in which the Bronx Bombers went 79-83 and finished fifth in the AL East. Given their aging roster and slew of injuries, history may very well repeat itself here in 2013.
Some other notes from Boston's encouraging win:
- Shane Victorino, Boston's most-criticized offseason move, stroked two singles and and knocked in three runs. Jonny Gomes also had a pair of hits in his Boston debut along with an intentional walk and run scored. Mike Napoli struggled, going hitless in five at-bats (two strikeouts) and leaving four men on base
- Jackie Bradley Jr. looked good in his big league debut, drawing three walks/exhibiting the plate discipline that fueled his .423 minor league OBP. He also flashed his speed while making a sensational catch on a long drive off the bat of Robinson Cano
- Speaking of patience, the Red Sox worked eight walks on Monday. Only the Royals walked less frequently last year, so hopefully this is a sign Boston will return to its tried-and-true strategy of grinding out at-bats and taking pitches. Even Jarrod Saltalamacchia--he of the .288 OBP since joining Boston--drew three walks. If you're looking for this week's sign of the apocalypse, look no further
- Jose Iglesias had an interesting day at the dish, stranding six runners but recording three infield singles as well as an RBI and run scored. Leave it to the light-hitting Iglesias to get three base knocks without hitting the ball out of the infield
- Former Red Sox fan favorite Kevin Youkilis doubled (New York's only extra base hit of the day) and scored a run in his first game in pinstripes
Sunday, January 13, 2013
13 Red Sox Resolutions for 2013
In honor of the new year and a clean slate for the Boston Red Sox, here are 13 New Year's resolutions for their 2013 season:
1. Avoid a slow start
The Red Sox have failed to make the playoffs three years running and their sluggish starts are partially to blame. In 2010 Boston began the season 4-9 and had a losing record in April. The following year the "Greatest Team Ever" folded under their burdensome expectations, dropped their first six games and got off to a 2-10 start. Looking back, the most frustrating aspect of that spring slump was losing three games by one run when winning just one would have nullified Boston's September meltdown. Last year brought more of the same when the Bosox stumbled out of the gates under new skipper Bobby Valentine, opening the year 4-10 en route to a 93-loss season. The Sox should strive to start strong this year so they don't have to dig themselves out of a hole and play catch-up in the early going. Those games in April matter just as much as the ones in September.
2. Calm clubhouse
The days of Boston being a tight-knit band of brothers spearheaded by character guys like Johnny Damon and Kevin Millar feel like distant memories now. Starting with their beer and fried chicken-fueled collapse two Septembers ago, the organization has deteriorated into a perpetual state of internal chaos and controversy. Much of the turmoil can be blamed on Bobby V, who oftentimes found himself in the eye of the storm with his Alex Rodriguez-esque knack for calling attention to himself. The big-mouthed skipper was supposed to light a fire under a ballclub that had grown too entitled and complacent at the end of Terry Francona's tenure, but instead he rubbed his players and coaches the wrong way and quickly lost control of the clubhouse. Camaraderie was non-existent, and his team became so fractured that Buster Olney described Boston's lack of chemistry as "toxic." Thankfully ownership wasted no time terminating Valentine and finding a suitable replacement in former Blue Jays manager John Farrell. There's going to be a totally different atmosphere this year because the players are comfortable with the former Red Sox pitching coach. They respect him and listen to him. It also helps that the front office made a conscious effort to bring in positive clubhouse presences such as Jonny Gomes, David Ross and Ryan Dempster.
3. Good health
The main culprit for Boston's recent inability to make the playoffs is a series of injuries to its stars. In 2010 Jacoby Ellsbury, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Mike Cameron, and Josh Beckett all missed considerable time. The following year Youk, Marco Scutaro, Carl Crawford, J.D. Drew, Clay Buchholz, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Bobby Jenks were sidelined, forcing Francona to start Andrew Miller and Kyle Weiland during the most important games of the season. But last year the Red Sox resembled the walking wounded as injuries reached epidemic proportions. Bobby V used 31 different position players (including a dozen outfielders by my count) and 25 pitchers throughout the course of the season. The snakebitten Sox could have fielded an All-Star team with the amount of talent collecting dust on their Disabled List: Pedroia, Ellsbury, Crawford, Youkilis, Ortiz Lackey, Dice-K, Beckett, Buchholz, Andrew Bailey, Will Middlebrooks, and Ryan Sweeney, to name a few. The Red Sox lost more days to the DL last year than all but two teams, the Padres and the Yankees. Pedroia was the only position player to appear in 140 games and Lester was the only pitcher to start at least 30 games. Injuries are part of the game and afflict every team to varying degrees, but Boston's been particularly unlucky of late. Hopefully 2013 does not bring more misfortune to its key players.
4. Be more patient
Last year the Red Sox deviated from their tried-and-true hitting approach of working the count, grinding out at-bats, and drawing walks. In 2011 they were the top-scoring team in baseball when they had the best OBP in the majors and walked more than every team except the New York Yankees. Last year they scored 141 fewer runs and were outscored by eight teams. Injuries contributed to the offensive decline, but it didn't help that Boston slipped to tenth among American League teams in OBP and, get this, ranked second-to-last in walks. Not just in the AL, but in the entire MLB. Only the Kansas City Royals, the youngest team in baseball, worked fewer walks. David Ortiz was the only Red Sox to draw more than 50 free passes in 2012, but the year before five players drew at least that many. New hitting coach Greg Colbrunn needs to preach patience to Middlebrooks and Jarrod Saltalamacchia as he helps the lineup return to its disciplined ways.
5. Get something out of John Lackey
Lackey's been a massive bust since signing a five-year, $82 million contract with Boston prior to the 2010 season. Since leaving Los Angeles he has a 5.26 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and -0.6 bWAR. After missing all of 2012 recovering from Tommy John sugery, Lackey needs to bounce back and start earning his paycheck. Nobody knows what to expect from the 34 year-old former Angels ace, but he must find a way to contribute this year and be a quality fourth or fifth starter behind Lester, Buchholz and Dempster.
6. Fix Daniel Bard
The flamethrowing reliever was a dominant setup man for Jonathan Papelbon before the team converted him into a starting pitcher. The experiment was a disaster. Control problems plagued Bard from the start, and he pitched so poorly that Boston demoted him to Triple-A in early June. He continued to struggle with Pawtucket and never regained his confidence or command. When he returned to the big club near the end of the season he got bombed to the tune of an 18.69 ERA coming out of the bullpen. Like Lackey, he needs to be an asset, not a liability. Bailey will set up Joel Hanrahan, but Bard could regain his eighth inning role at some point since Bailey's an injury waiting to happen. I fear he'll become the next Joba Chamberlain, who has never been the same since the Yankees did the same thing to him.
7. Find a first baseman
Boston thought it had the position locked up when Theo Epstein handed Adrian Gonzalez a seven year, $154 million contract extension that kicked in last year and runs through 2018. Less than five months into his new deal, Gonzalez was traded to LA along with Beckett, Crawford, and Nick Punto. The Red Sox seemed to fill the gaping hole at first when they signed Mike Napoli more than a month ago but have yet to make the deal official. Talks have stalled with the All-Star catcher because of a hip condition discovered during his physical. This health risk prompted Boston's front office to change the language of his new contract to protect themselves should he miss an extended period of time. The Red Sox explored alternatives in case the deal falls through, working out Bobby Abreu at first base and talking to Adam LaRoche before he re-upped with Washington (settling for two years even though he wanted three). The Red Sox need Napoli and have to find a way to make the deal work.
8. Extend Jacoby Ellsbury soon, or trade him
The speedy center fielder will be a free agent after the season and is due for a raise. If he plays like he did in 2011, when he finished second to Justin Verlander in the AL MVP race, Scott Boras will net him a fat payday. Ben Cherington needs to assess whether Ellsbury's injury risk is worth investing in his upside. He may already have the next Ellsbury in prospect Jackie Bradley. Boston use Bradley as a trade chip if its willing to shell out for Ellsbury. However, if Cherington wants to go in a different direction, it makes sense for himto dangle Ellsbury's name in trade talks (like Arizona is doing with Justin Upton) and see what other teams are willing to offer. He might as well get something in return if Ellsbury is going to walk next winter.
9. No more first inning woes
Red Sox starters struggled mightily during the first inning last year, allowing opponents to pummel them for 126 runs while batting .293/.353/.491. Consequently, the Sox fell behind more often than not, which perhaps explains why Boston hitters became more aggressive at the plate and tried to make something happen with the bat. The BoSox fell behind in 127 of their 162 games, and when they were losing Boston's batted .250/.300/.406 (versus .278/.337/.449 when they were ahead). It's incredibly frustrating, not to mention demoralizing, for a team to constantly be down before they even step up to the plate. One reason Bob McClure got canned was because he couldn't solve the problem, but maybe new pitching coach Juan Nieves can.
10. Revive Red Sox Nation
Red Sox fans are fed up. They pay the highest ticket prices in the sport and just endured their team's worst season since 1965. Even though Fenway Park still "sold out" every game last year, the Fenway Faithful rarely filled the old ballpark to capacity (especially late in the year when the team fell out of contention). The Bruins, Celtics, and Patriots make the playoffs every year and contend for a title, but the Red Sox haven't even won a postseason game since 2008. The city's baseball team has taken a dive while the rest of Beantown's sports enterprises are prospering, so the Red Sox run the risk of losing relevance if they don't turn it around soon. The Old Towne Team will always be their first love, but now Boston sports fans have enough distractions to keep them occupied. Many fans, myself included, tuned out once the losses started piling up. Bring them back with a winning season.
11. Solve the shortstop problem
Shortstop has been a revolving door in Boston since Epstein traded Nomar Garciaparra in 2004. Orlando Cabrera, Edgar Renteria, Alex Gonzalez, Julio Lugo, Nick Green, Jed Lowrie, Scutaro, and Mike Aviles have come and gone. Now add oft-injured Stephen Drew, J.D.'s younger (and less talented) brother, to the roll call. Drew signed a one year deal and is clearly just a stopgap until either Jose Iglesias or Xander Bogaerts is ready for the Show. Iglesias is a human vacuum cleaner but can't hit a lick; he has just two home runs in more than 1,000 minor league plate appearances. I have serious doubts that he'll ever be able to produce at the major league level and believe Boston should trade the 23 year-old while he still has perceived upside. Needless to say, 2013 is a critical year for him. Bogaerts isn't as talented with the glove but is a much more polished hitter. He's just 20 but already established a strong track record during his teenage years, batting .296/.366/.495 in his three seasons down on the farm. He's my preferred shortstop of the future and should be good to go after another year or two of seasoning.
12. Get Jon Lester back on track
Lester is supposed to be the ace of the staff, but hasn't pitched like it in quite some time. Over his past 37 starts, the two-time All-Star is 9-17 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Those numbers are dangerously close to John Lackey territory and don't look anything like his stats from the previous four seasons, when he was worth 20.7 bWAR, won two-thirds of his decisions and compiled a 135 ERA+. As recently as 2010 Lester was one of the best pitchers in the league, but in 2012 he was one of the worst. His offerings were more hittable because his strikeout rate decreased for the third consecutive season in concert with his reduced fastball velocity. On the bright side, his walk rate has improved in back-to-back seasons, plus his FIP, xFIP, SIERA and LOB% all suggest that luck was not on Lester's side last year. I think he's going to have a big rebound year under Farrell, who served as his pitching coach from 2007 through 2010, the year Lester won 19 games and finished fourth in the Cy Young voting behind Felix Hernandez, David Price and CC Sabathia.
13. Make the playoffs
The New York Yankees are another year older and have hamstrung themselves by committing to trim the payroll below $189 million to avoid paying the luxury tax in 2014. The Tampa Bay Rays have plenty of pitching but desperately need more hitting, plus they just lost James Shields and B.J. Upton. The Toronto Blue Jays look unstoppable on paper, but have a lot of question marks surrounding Ricky Romero, Josh Johnson, Melky Cabrera, and Brandon Morrow. The Baltimore Orioles had a fluky year, winning 93 games with a +7 run differential, and are all but guaranteed to sink below .500. The AL East is still the toughest division in baseball, but all of Boston's rivals have flaws. The Red Sox will recover in 2013 and with the second wild card in play, anything is possible.
1. Avoid a slow start
The Red Sox have failed to make the playoffs three years running and their sluggish starts are partially to blame. In 2010 Boston began the season 4-9 and had a losing record in April. The following year the "Greatest Team Ever" folded under their burdensome expectations, dropped their first six games and got off to a 2-10 start. Looking back, the most frustrating aspect of that spring slump was losing three games by one run when winning just one would have nullified Boston's September meltdown. Last year brought more of the same when the Bosox stumbled out of the gates under new skipper Bobby Valentine, opening the year 4-10 en route to a 93-loss season. The Sox should strive to start strong this year so they don't have to dig themselves out of a hole and play catch-up in the early going. Those games in April matter just as much as the ones in September.
2. Calm clubhouse
The days of Boston being a tight-knit band of brothers spearheaded by character guys like Johnny Damon and Kevin Millar feel like distant memories now. Starting with their beer and fried chicken-fueled collapse two Septembers ago, the organization has deteriorated into a perpetual state of internal chaos and controversy. Much of the turmoil can be blamed on Bobby V, who oftentimes found himself in the eye of the storm with his Alex Rodriguez-esque knack for calling attention to himself. The big-mouthed skipper was supposed to light a fire under a ballclub that had grown too entitled and complacent at the end of Terry Francona's tenure, but instead he rubbed his players and coaches the wrong way and quickly lost control of the clubhouse. Camaraderie was non-existent, and his team became so fractured that Buster Olney described Boston's lack of chemistry as "toxic." Thankfully ownership wasted no time terminating Valentine and finding a suitable replacement in former Blue Jays manager John Farrell. There's going to be a totally different atmosphere this year because the players are comfortable with the former Red Sox pitching coach. They respect him and listen to him. It also helps that the front office made a conscious effort to bring in positive clubhouse presences such as Jonny Gomes, David Ross and Ryan Dempster.
3. Good health
The main culprit for Boston's recent inability to make the playoffs is a series of injuries to its stars. In 2010 Jacoby Ellsbury, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Mike Cameron, and Josh Beckett all missed considerable time. The following year Youk, Marco Scutaro, Carl Crawford, J.D. Drew, Clay Buchholz, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Bobby Jenks were sidelined, forcing Francona to start Andrew Miller and Kyle Weiland during the most important games of the season. But last year the Red Sox resembled the walking wounded as injuries reached epidemic proportions. Bobby V used 31 different position players (including a dozen outfielders by my count) and 25 pitchers throughout the course of the season. The snakebitten Sox could have fielded an All-Star team with the amount of talent collecting dust on their Disabled List: Pedroia, Ellsbury, Crawford, Youkilis, Ortiz Lackey, Dice-K, Beckett, Buchholz, Andrew Bailey, Will Middlebrooks, and Ryan Sweeney, to name a few. The Red Sox lost more days to the DL last year than all but two teams, the Padres and the Yankees. Pedroia was the only position player to appear in 140 games and Lester was the only pitcher to start at least 30 games. Injuries are part of the game and afflict every team to varying degrees, but Boston's been particularly unlucky of late. Hopefully 2013 does not bring more misfortune to its key players.
4. Be more patient
Last year the Red Sox deviated from their tried-and-true hitting approach of working the count, grinding out at-bats, and drawing walks. In 2011 they were the top-scoring team in baseball when they had the best OBP in the majors and walked more than every team except the New York Yankees. Last year they scored 141 fewer runs and were outscored by eight teams. Injuries contributed to the offensive decline, but it didn't help that Boston slipped to tenth among American League teams in OBP and, get this, ranked second-to-last in walks. Not just in the AL, but in the entire MLB. Only the Kansas City Royals, the youngest team in baseball, worked fewer walks. David Ortiz was the only Red Sox to draw more than 50 free passes in 2012, but the year before five players drew at least that many. New hitting coach Greg Colbrunn needs to preach patience to Middlebrooks and Jarrod Saltalamacchia as he helps the lineup return to its disciplined ways.
5. Get something out of John Lackey
Lackey's been a massive bust since signing a five-year, $82 million contract with Boston prior to the 2010 season. Since leaving Los Angeles he has a 5.26 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and -0.6 bWAR. After missing all of 2012 recovering from Tommy John sugery, Lackey needs to bounce back and start earning his paycheck. Nobody knows what to expect from the 34 year-old former Angels ace, but he must find a way to contribute this year and be a quality fourth or fifth starter behind Lester, Buchholz and Dempster.
6. Fix Daniel Bard
The flamethrowing reliever was a dominant setup man for Jonathan Papelbon before the team converted him into a starting pitcher. The experiment was a disaster. Control problems plagued Bard from the start, and he pitched so poorly that Boston demoted him to Triple-A in early June. He continued to struggle with Pawtucket and never regained his confidence or command. When he returned to the big club near the end of the season he got bombed to the tune of an 18.69 ERA coming out of the bullpen. Like Lackey, he needs to be an asset, not a liability. Bailey will set up Joel Hanrahan, but Bard could regain his eighth inning role at some point since Bailey's an injury waiting to happen. I fear he'll become the next Joba Chamberlain, who has never been the same since the Yankees did the same thing to him.
7. Find a first baseman
Boston thought it had the position locked up when Theo Epstein handed Adrian Gonzalez a seven year, $154 million contract extension that kicked in last year and runs through 2018. Less than five months into his new deal, Gonzalez was traded to LA along with Beckett, Crawford, and Nick Punto. The Red Sox seemed to fill the gaping hole at first when they signed Mike Napoli more than a month ago but have yet to make the deal official. Talks have stalled with the All-Star catcher because of a hip condition discovered during his physical. This health risk prompted Boston's front office to change the language of his new contract to protect themselves should he miss an extended period of time. The Red Sox explored alternatives in case the deal falls through, working out Bobby Abreu at first base and talking to Adam LaRoche before he re-upped with Washington (settling for two years even though he wanted three). The Red Sox need Napoli and have to find a way to make the deal work.
8. Extend Jacoby Ellsbury soon, or trade him
The speedy center fielder will be a free agent after the season and is due for a raise. If he plays like he did in 2011, when he finished second to Justin Verlander in the AL MVP race, Scott Boras will net him a fat payday. Ben Cherington needs to assess whether Ellsbury's injury risk is worth investing in his upside. He may already have the next Ellsbury in prospect Jackie Bradley. Boston use Bradley as a trade chip if its willing to shell out for Ellsbury. However, if Cherington wants to go in a different direction, it makes sense for himto dangle Ellsbury's name in trade talks (like Arizona is doing with Justin Upton) and see what other teams are willing to offer. He might as well get something in return if Ellsbury is going to walk next winter.
9. No more first inning woes
Red Sox starters struggled mightily during the first inning last year, allowing opponents to pummel them for 126 runs while batting .293/.353/.491. Consequently, the Sox fell behind more often than not, which perhaps explains why Boston hitters became more aggressive at the plate and tried to make something happen with the bat. The BoSox fell behind in 127 of their 162 games, and when they were losing Boston's batted .250/.300/.406 (versus .278/.337/.449 when they were ahead). It's incredibly frustrating, not to mention demoralizing, for a team to constantly be down before they even step up to the plate. One reason Bob McClure got canned was because he couldn't solve the problem, but maybe new pitching coach Juan Nieves can.
10. Revive Red Sox Nation
Red Sox fans are fed up. They pay the highest ticket prices in the sport and just endured their team's worst season since 1965. Even though Fenway Park still "sold out" every game last year, the Fenway Faithful rarely filled the old ballpark to capacity (especially late in the year when the team fell out of contention). The Bruins, Celtics, and Patriots make the playoffs every year and contend for a title, but the Red Sox haven't even won a postseason game since 2008. The city's baseball team has taken a dive while the rest of Beantown's sports enterprises are prospering, so the Red Sox run the risk of losing relevance if they don't turn it around soon. The Old Towne Team will always be their first love, but now Boston sports fans have enough distractions to keep them occupied. Many fans, myself included, tuned out once the losses started piling up. Bring them back with a winning season.
11. Solve the shortstop problem
Shortstop has been a revolving door in Boston since Epstein traded Nomar Garciaparra in 2004. Orlando Cabrera, Edgar Renteria, Alex Gonzalez, Julio Lugo, Nick Green, Jed Lowrie, Scutaro, and Mike Aviles have come and gone. Now add oft-injured Stephen Drew, J.D.'s younger (and less talented) brother, to the roll call. Drew signed a one year deal and is clearly just a stopgap until either Jose Iglesias or Xander Bogaerts is ready for the Show. Iglesias is a human vacuum cleaner but can't hit a lick; he has just two home runs in more than 1,000 minor league plate appearances. I have serious doubts that he'll ever be able to produce at the major league level and believe Boston should trade the 23 year-old while he still has perceived upside. Needless to say, 2013 is a critical year for him. Bogaerts isn't as talented with the glove but is a much more polished hitter. He's just 20 but already established a strong track record during his teenage years, batting .296/.366/.495 in his three seasons down on the farm. He's my preferred shortstop of the future and should be good to go after another year or two of seasoning.
12. Get Jon Lester back on track
Lester is supposed to be the ace of the staff, but hasn't pitched like it in quite some time. Over his past 37 starts, the two-time All-Star is 9-17 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Those numbers are dangerously close to John Lackey territory and don't look anything like his stats from the previous four seasons, when he was worth 20.7 bWAR, won two-thirds of his decisions and compiled a 135 ERA+. As recently as 2010 Lester was one of the best pitchers in the league, but in 2012 he was one of the worst. His offerings were more hittable because his strikeout rate decreased for the third consecutive season in concert with his reduced fastball velocity. On the bright side, his walk rate has improved in back-to-back seasons, plus his FIP, xFIP, SIERA and LOB% all suggest that luck was not on Lester's side last year. I think he's going to have a big rebound year under Farrell, who served as his pitching coach from 2007 through 2010, the year Lester won 19 games and finished fourth in the Cy Young voting behind Felix Hernandez, David Price and CC Sabathia.
13. Make the playoffs
The New York Yankees are another year older and have hamstrung themselves by committing to trim the payroll below $189 million to avoid paying the luxury tax in 2014. The Tampa Bay Rays have plenty of pitching but desperately need more hitting, plus they just lost James Shields and B.J. Upton. The Toronto Blue Jays look unstoppable on paper, but have a lot of question marks surrounding Ricky Romero, Josh Johnson, Melky Cabrera, and Brandon Morrow. The Baltimore Orioles had a fluky year, winning 93 games with a +7 run differential, and are all but guaranteed to sink below .500. The AL East is still the toughest division in baseball, but all of Boston's rivals have flaws. The Red Sox will recover in 2013 and with the second wild card in play, anything is possible.
Friday, January 11, 2013
2012 MLB All Bust Team (AL)
A look back at those who flopped in 2012, either due to injuries, bad performance, or a combination of both. If you picked these guys on your fantasy teams, hopefully you cut bait before these anchors dragged your squad down into the depths of the rotisserie abyss. To see the 2011 version of the team, go here:
C Alex Avila
2011: 63 runs 19 home runs 82 RBI 3 steals .295/.389/.506
2012: 42 runs 9 home runs 48 RBI 2 steals .243/.352/.384
1B Eric Hosmer (also considered Carlos Pena and Casey Kotchman)
2011: 66 runs 19 home runs 78 RBI 11 steals .293/.334/.465
2012: 65 runs 14 home runs 60 RBI 16 steals .232/.304/.359
2B Jemile Weeks
2011: 50 runs 2 home runs 36 RBI 22 steals .303/.340/.421
2012: 54 runs 2 home runs 20 RBI 16 steals .221/.305/.304
3B Danny Valencia
2011: 63 runs 15 home runs 72 RBI 2 steals .246/.294/.383
2012: 14 runs 3 home runs 21 RBI 0 steals .188/.199/.299
SS Jhonny Peralta (almost went with Yunel Escobar)
2011: 68 runs 21 home runs 86 RBI 0 steals .299/.345/.478
2012: 58 runs 13 home runs 63 RBI 1 steal .239/.305/.384
OF Brennan Boesch
2011: 75 runs 16 home runs 54 RBI 5 steals .283/.341/.458
2012: 52 runs 12 home runs 54 RBI 6 steals .240/.286/.372
OF Jacoby Ellsbury
2011: 119 runs 32 home runs 105 RBI 39 steals .321/.376/.552
2012: 43 runs 4 home runs 26 RBI 14 steals .271/.313/.370
OF Jeff Francoeur
2011: 77 runs 20 home runs 87 RBI 22 steals .285/.329/.476
2012: 58 runs 16 home runs 49 RBI 4 steals .235/.287/.378
DH Michael Young
2011: 88 runs 11 home runs 106 RBI 6 steals .338/.380/.474
2012: 79 runs 8 home runs 67 RBI 2 steals .277/.312/.370
SP Jon Lester
2011: 15-9 3.47 ERA 1.26 WHIP 182 strikeouts
2012: 9-14 4.82 ERA 1.38 WHIP 166 strikeouts
SP Ricky Romero
2011: 15-11 2.92 ERA 1.14 WHIP 178 strikeouts
2012: 9-14 5.77 ERA 1.67 WHIP 124 strikeouts
SP Ervin Santana
2011: 11-12 3.38 ERA 1.22 WHIP 178 strikeouts
2012: 9-13 5.16 ERA 1.27 WHIP 133 strikeouts
SP Dan Haren
2011: 16-10 3.17 ERA 1.02 WHIP 192 strikeouts
2012: 12-13 4.33 ERA 1.29 WHIP 142 strikeouts
SP Josh Beckett
2011: 13-7 2.89 ERA 1.03 WHIP 175 strikeouts
2012: 7-14 4.65 ERA 1.33 WHIP 132 strikeouts
RP Mark Melancon
2011: 8-4 2.78 ERA 1.22 WHIP 66 strikeouts 20 saves
2012: 0-2 6.20 ERA 1.27 WHIP 41 strikeouts 1 save
CL Francisco Cordero
2011: 5-3 2.45 ERA 1.02 WHIP 42 strikeouts 37 saves
2012: 3-8 7.55 ERA 2.01 WHIP 31 strikeouts 2 saves
C Alex Avila
2011: 63 runs 19 home runs 82 RBI 3 steals .295/.389/.506
2012: 42 runs 9 home runs 48 RBI 2 steals .243/.352/.384
1B Eric Hosmer (also considered Carlos Pena and Casey Kotchman)
2011: 66 runs 19 home runs 78 RBI 11 steals .293/.334/.465
2012: 65 runs 14 home runs 60 RBI 16 steals .232/.304/.359
2B Jemile Weeks
2011: 50 runs 2 home runs 36 RBI 22 steals .303/.340/.421
2012: 54 runs 2 home runs 20 RBI 16 steals .221/.305/.304
3B Danny Valencia
2011: 63 runs 15 home runs 72 RBI 2 steals .246/.294/.383
2012: 14 runs 3 home runs 21 RBI 0 steals .188/.199/.299
SS Jhonny Peralta (almost went with Yunel Escobar)
2011: 68 runs 21 home runs 86 RBI 0 steals .299/.345/.478
2012: 58 runs 13 home runs 63 RBI 1 steal .239/.305/.384
OF Brennan Boesch
2011: 75 runs 16 home runs 54 RBI 5 steals .283/.341/.458
2012: 52 runs 12 home runs 54 RBI 6 steals .240/.286/.372
OF Jacoby Ellsbury
2011: 119 runs 32 home runs 105 RBI 39 steals .321/.376/.552
2012: 43 runs 4 home runs 26 RBI 14 steals .271/.313/.370
OF Jeff Francoeur
2011: 77 runs 20 home runs 87 RBI 22 steals .285/.329/.476
2012: 58 runs 16 home runs 49 RBI 4 steals .235/.287/.378
DH Michael Young
2011: 88 runs 11 home runs 106 RBI 6 steals .338/.380/.474
2012: 79 runs 8 home runs 67 RBI 2 steals .277/.312/.370
SP Jon Lester
2011: 15-9 3.47 ERA 1.26 WHIP 182 strikeouts
2012: 9-14 4.82 ERA 1.38 WHIP 166 strikeouts
SP Ricky Romero
2011: 15-11 2.92 ERA 1.14 WHIP 178 strikeouts
2012: 9-14 5.77 ERA 1.67 WHIP 124 strikeouts
SP Ervin Santana
2011: 11-12 3.38 ERA 1.22 WHIP 178 strikeouts
2012: 9-13 5.16 ERA 1.27 WHIP 133 strikeouts
SP Dan Haren
2011: 16-10 3.17 ERA 1.02 WHIP 192 strikeouts
2012: 12-13 4.33 ERA 1.29 WHIP 142 strikeouts
SP Josh Beckett
2011: 13-7 2.89 ERA 1.03 WHIP 175 strikeouts
2012: 7-14 4.65 ERA 1.33 WHIP 132 strikeouts
RP Mark Melancon
2011: 8-4 2.78 ERA 1.22 WHIP 66 strikeouts 20 saves
2012: 0-2 6.20 ERA 1.27 WHIP 41 strikeouts 1 save
CL Francisco Cordero
2011: 5-3 2.45 ERA 1.02 WHIP 42 strikeouts 37 saves
2012: 3-8 7.55 ERA 2.01 WHIP 31 strikeouts 2 saves
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
Sox-Yankees September Showdown: So What?
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| New York and Boston are limping to the finish line (ESPN Boston) |
Don't let the sellout crowds fool you; these games mean nothing to Boston, who were just swept by the equally terrible Toronto Blue Jays. That makes 11 losses in their past dozen contests, a slide that's dropped them to last place in the AL East. Their season's in the toilet, and fans have already checked out and moved on. I hear the Patriots are supposed to be pretty good this year.
On the other hand, these three games are crucial for the Yankees, who lead the division by just one game over those pesky Baltimore Orioles. New York hasn't played well lately, and now finds itself in the unenviable position of fighting tooth and nail to hold on to the top spot in the AL Beast, a situation that seemed unimaginable on the morning of July 19th when they were up ten games in the standings. Coolstandings.com gives them a 50.7 percent chance of winning the division. A coin toss. Most teams, Red Sox included, would gladly take those odds, but not the Yankees, not when they should have had this race locked up already.
But untimely injuries to C.C. Sabathia, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Andy Pettitte, and Ivan Nova, along with the pre-existing ones to Mariano Rivera, Michael Pineda, and Brett Gardner, depleted the Bombers as their midsummer surge became a swoon (same thing happened to the Red Sox last year and, well, look how that turned out). They haven't won back-to-back games since the middle of August and desperately need to get back on track against their rivals, whom they've beaten eight times in their twelve meetings thus far. They'd love to cream Boston and gather some momentum for their pivotal weekend series with the Rays. Most importantly, they want to stay in first place and maintain their status as division leaders, a title they've held each and every day for the past three months.
With the Sox rolling out a glorified version of the Pawsox most nights, this series is there for the taking. All New York has to do is win (I know, I know, easier said than done). Tonight Joe Girardi sends Hiroki Kuroda (13-10, 3.14 ERA) to the bump. The 37 year-old free agent acquisition has quietly been the team's best pitcher this year as well as their hottest; over his past 19 starts he has a 2.58 ERA, averaging more than seven innings per turn with nearly five strikeouts per walk. Bobby Valentine will counter with Jon Lester (9-11, 4.99 ERA), who's looked like the Jon Lester of old since he cratered against Toronto. With those two aces colliding, expect a pitching duel that should keep the Fenway Faithful in their seats for much of the game.
And while they are there, maybe they can ignore the standings posted on the Green Monster, close their eyes and pretend that Yankees-Red Sox still matters.
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
Red Sox Sliding
The slumping Sox have dropped a season worst seven games in a row--all on the road--falling to 62-74 on the season. It's been an ugly West Coast swing, to say the least. First the Angels swept them aside, and then the surging A's followed suit with a lopsided three game sweep in which they bludgeoned the Bosox 33-5. Last night in Seattle, Jason Vargas shut down Boston's ice cold bats and outdueled Clay Buchholz. During this latest losing streak opponents have outscored them by 41 runs during that stretch, an average of nearly six runs per game. Six! Granted, that number is somewhat inflated by the 20-2 beatdown they suffered in Oakland last Friday night, but in only one game was the margin of defeat less than three runs. The simple explanation is that the pitching and hitting are struggling simultaneously. It's going to be tough to win baseball games when when your pitchers get lit up for 8.3 runs per game, and by the same token is just as difficult when the slumbering offense produces just 2.3 runs per game.
It's been a hard fall from the top for a team that looked like World Series favorites as recently as last September. Trades and injuries have reduced them to a glorified AAA ballclub. It was safe to assume that the team would only get worse after trading away Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, but I don't think anybody expected it to get this bad. After all, their lineup still features elite top of the order talent in Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia. The rotation still has an effective lefty-righty punch with Jon Lester and Buchholz anchoring the staff. And don't forget that Felix Doubront and 2009 AL Rookie of the Year Andrew Bailey recently returned from injuries. Unlike, say, the Houston Astros, this roster hasn't been totally gutted. It has an intact core with good players capable of winning ballgames.
Still, the fact remains that this club have been brutal for more than a month now. Since the July 31st trading deadline, Boston's gone 9-23 (.281 winning percentage), a streak of futility reminiscent of their infamous 7-20 September swoon one year ago. Over that span the Sox have strung together back-to-back wins just twice and have just one series win (against the Royals) in their past nine sets.
Tough to watch, indeed. Some would say almost torturous.
Tonight Lester (8-11, 5.01 ERA) looks to stop the bleeding against Blake Beavan (9-8, 4.95 ERA). Boston's struggling southpaw has finally started to pitch like the ace he's supposed to be. In August he averaged more than seven innings per start, compiled a 3.59 ERA and permitted just two home runs. The light-hitting Mariners, who rank dead last in the American League in numerous offensive categories such as runs, hits, batting average, OBP, SLG, OPS, and total bases, shouldn't pose much of a threat. Boston's bats should come alive against Beavan, and I'm confident Lester will go out and get the job done.
Sunday, August 26, 2012
Red Sox Reshape Roster
But with the team sputtering--seven games below .500, nine and a half games out of the second wild card and sporting a worse record than the Seattle freaking Mariners--it was evident that some sort of sweeping change was necessary to get them back on track. For the third year in a row, Boston will miss the playoffs, something that hasn't happened since 2000-2002 (Coolstandings.com gives them a 0.6 percent chance of reaching the postseason, and even those odds seem too generous). The team is headed towards its first losing season since 1997. They've gone 67-87 since last September 1st. It's hard to believe that at the same time a year ago, the "best team ever" was gunning for 100 wins and a World Series title.
But the Red Sox are expected to contend every year, so obviously this level of mediocrity is unacceptable. Boston, a city that cherishes baseball as much as it loves clam chowder and the legend of Paul Revere, will not tolerate losing seasons as long as it continues to pay the most expensive ticket prices in the sport. Red Sox Nation is impatient (and has every right to be after waiting 86 years between World Series) I give all the credit in the world to Boston GM Ben Cherington for getting creative and orchestrating such a groundbreaking trade to change the face of the franchise. He deserves a pat on the back for trying to retool the team on the fly. He could have easily blamed this lost season on a crippling combination of slumps and injuries, sat on his hands for the rest of the summer and taken his chances with the same team next year, perhaps with a new field manager in tow. Instead, he recognized the team was going nowhere because Theo Epstein's spending sprees tied up much of his financial resources. The bloated payroll, much of it dedicated to injured/ineffective players such as Beckett, Crawford, John Lackey, and Daisuke Matsuzaka, was working against them. It choked Cherington, limiting him to making minor moves and preventing him from pursuing players and deals that could actually make an impact (last winter he was unable to re-sign Jonathan Papelbon or court free agents such as Jose Reyes, C.J. Wilson, and Mark Buehrle). So he took a cue from the Philadelphia Phillies, who were mired in the exact same situation as the Red Sox--massive payroll, devastated by injuries, treading water. After re-signing Cole Hamels they unloaded Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino at the trade deadline. Four weeks later, Boston followed suit.
By all accounts this blockbuster trade is a great move for the Red Sox and a big win for Cherington, who hasn't been able to do anything right since stepping in for Theo Epstein last October. After all, his recent track record is littered with duds; he hired Bobby Valentine, traded Josh Reddick for Andrew Bailey and Ryan Sweeney, dealt Jed Lowrie for Mark Melancon, sent Marco Scutaro to Colorado, swapped Kevin Youkilis for a couple of nobodies, and stood pat the trade deadline instead of shaking things up when Boston still had a chance to make the playoffs. Cherington's moves only spilled gasoline into a raging inferno, adding to the team's myriad problems instead of solving them. But he just gave himself and his team a clean slate, and if this move works out for him, we might remember him as the man who cleaned up Theo Epstein's expensive mess with one big broom. In a way, this move feels like a much larger version of his predecessor's pivotal Nomar Garciaparra trade in 2004, a bold midseason deal that dumped an unhappy, underperforming star player to the NL for fifty cents on the dollar but ultimately worked because it greatly improved clubhouse chemistry and addressed the team's needs. In the end, the degree to which this deal suceeds depends on who Cherington is able to acquire with all the payroll he just freed up.
And that's why I support the move; because it will save the team more than $260 million in player salaries (not including Dice-K, who's coming off the books in a few months as well) over the next five years. After that kind of salary dump, you'd think the team had changed its name to the "Boston Mets." But with a much more flexible payroll, Cherington will have sufficient funds to re-sign David Ortiz and Cody Ross, potentially woo Jacoby Ellsbury away from free agency (an unlikely scenario considering Scott Boras represents him, but at least the Sox could lay down an appetizing offer and then try to trade him if he's not interested). He can go after starting pitchers like Zack Greinke, Ryan Dempster and James Shields, or perhaps try to land a Josh Hamilton, Nick Swisher, B.J. Upton, Michael Bourn or Shane Victorino. Cherington has stressed the need to be disciplined and smart about how he will allocate his new spending money, indicating that he won't get carried away with reckless splurging as Epstein did during the latter half of his tenure (i.e. throwing money at free agents just for the sake of spending money/making a splash). In a nutshell, he intends to spend his allowance wisely, an approach that should prevent this sort of thing from happening again in the near future.
And it's not like the Red Sox are blowing up their team Florida Marlins style. Much has been made about how the trade is like pressing a reset button, but that implies the team is starting over from starting over from scratch like the Houston Astros. In reality, they still have a great core of Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Will Middlebrooks, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and Daniel Bard, all of whom are in their primes. With a restocked farm system and the right moves to complement this nucleus, the Red Sox could contend as soon as next year. No need to undergo a full blown rebuilding process when the roster still has plenty of big league talent to build around. With some more starting pitching depth and another outfield bat, they're going to be a dangerous team in 2013.
Still, I hate to lose a hitter of Gonzalez's caliber, especially since offense is at such a premium these days. He was worth the investment. But at the same time, I realize he had to be sacrificed in order to get LA to take Beckett and Crawford off our hands. Gonzo was a perfect fit for Fenway with his gap-to-gap hitting style and ability to take advantage of the Green Monster with his opposite field power. A-Gone had the potential to put together a Hall of Fame career as the team's best everyday first baseman since Mo Vaughn. He's a class act, a true professional who plays hard, quietly goes about his business and keeps his mouth shut. Lord knows the Red Sox could use more players like him. It was a joy watching him hit everyday, and the Sox are going to miss his presence in the middle of their order. Luckily I was fortunate enough to see his last game with Boston in person, even though he ended his Red Sox career (and that game) by whiffing on three consecutive pitches with the tying run on base.
Even though I'm not a big fan of trading proven big league talent for prospects, I think the Sox got a pretty promising package in return:
James Loney
Once a top prospect and first round draft pick who batted a robust .331/.387/.538 as a 23 year-old rookie in 2007, Loney hasn't come close to matching those numbers in any of the five seasons since. The power he displayed never developed, either, as he's failed to swat more than thirteen homers in any subsequent season. Given the promise he displayed early on, his regression into an average player at best can be regarded as hugely disappointing. He's 28, in the prime of his career, and instead he's having the worst season of his career, batting just .254/.302/.344 with only four home runs and 33 RBI. That kind of production suggests he's a glove first shortstop, when in reality he's splitting time at first with Juan Rivera. Loney will be a free agent this winter, and unless he regroups over the next six weeks I doubt he'll stay in Boston beyond that. Fenway could help revitalize his career, but he looks so lost at the plate that it doesn't matter where he hits.
Jerry Sands
The slugging 24 year-old first baseman has posted monster numbers (.566 SLG, .943 OPS) in the minor leagues but that success hasn't followed him into the Show, where he's batted just .244/.325/.376 with four home runs in 70 career games. He's not Adrian Gonzalez and probably never will be, but has the potential to be a franchise cornerstone at first base for years to come. The 6'4", 225 pound righthanded power hitter has the same build as Ryan Lavarnaway and should enjoy taking aim at the Green Monster.
Ivan De Jesus Jr.
Not sure what the Sox plan on doing with a light-hitting second baseman, given that they already have one of the game's top keystones in Dustin Pedroia. They could hold on to him in case Pedroia gets hurt, but he probably has more value as trade bait.
Alan Webster
A highly regarded sinkerball pitcher, the 22 year-old has stalled out in AA and will likely need another year or two of seasoning before he's ready for the big leagues. He is the only player in the deal without any MLB experience.
Rubby De La Rosa
The 23 year-old pitching prospect looks fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, as his mid-90s velocity has returned. Has dominant stuff, but needs to harness his command in order to become an effective starting pitcher at the big league level.
As for the Dodgers, it's been a busy summer for them and their GM NEd Coletti, who added some punch to a top-heavy lineup by trading for Victorino and Hanley Ramirez prior to the July 31st deadline. Gonzalez gives them another offensive weapon, as will Crawford when he returns, and Beckett bolsters the starting rotation. Now that the dust has settled, you could make the case that the Dodgers' roster now features the best player (2011 NL MVP runner-up Matt Kemp), first baseman(Gonzalez, as long as Joey Votto is out), shortstop (Ramirez), starting pitcher (2011 NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw) and closer (Kenley Jansen) in baseball.
Here are their four newest additions:
Josh Beckett
Nobody needed a change of scenery more than Beckett, presently the most hated athlete wearing a Boston uniform. His attitude, arrogance and abysmal performance, along with unhealthy dietary habits and leisurely rounds of golf, caused the city to sour on him. He had to go. His behavior over the past year has erased any memory of his postseason dominance during the team's 2007 World Series championship run, which is really too bad. The 2007 ALCS MVP could have had a Luis Tiant/Curt Schilling type of legacy here as the October warrior who always saved his best for the games that mattered the most. Instead, his legacy is drinking beer and eating fried chicked with Jon Lester and John Lackey while the Red Sox folded. He squandered any chance he had at redemption by submitting one of his worst seasons to date and hasn't shown any signs of turning it around with just one win in his previous thirteen starts. The 32 year-old's velocity is down and he could be entering the decline phase of his career. Even so, he should show marked improvement against weaker NL competition (hey, I mean if A.J. Burnett can pitch like a Cy Young candidate...). His timing couldn't be better for the Dodgers, since Chad Billingsley was just placed on the disabled list yesterday with inflammation in his right elbow. Beckett's nightmare season (5-11, 5.23 ERA) is far from over, but with a strong finish to the year--perhaps capped by some vintage Beckett postseason performances--he can salvage something positive to build on for the next two years of his contract. He makes his Dodger debut tomorrow against the Rockies at Coors Field. Good luck with that.
Carl Crawford
With Crawford joining All-Stars Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, all three of whom are signed through 2017, the Dodgers now feature the best outfield in baseball for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately Crawford is done for the year after going under the knife (Tommy John surgery) earlier in the week, and thus cannot contribute to the Dodgers' stretch run as they try to nudge past the now Melky Cabrera-less San Francisco Giants. His brief stint in Beantown was nothing short of an unmitigated disaster; he missed more games (163) than he played (161) and was terrible when he showed up, batting a woeful .260/.292/.419 and providing 0.3 bWAR. You got the sense that Crawford was never really comfortable here, that he was too thin-skinned to handle the claustrophobic atmosphere of the fishbowl that is Boston sports. Throw in the added pressure to live up to his gargantuan seven year, $142 million deal and it's not too hard to see why he didn't suceed with the Bosox. It's also important to remember that Crawford didn't want to play for Boston in the first place; the other LA team topped his list of preferred destinations when he hit the free agent market two years ago, but the Red Sox offered more money and the Halos wound up absorbing an even worse contract by trading for Vernon Wells (a lose-lose if I've ever seen one). Needless to say, he should be much happier in the city of Angels, a more laid back environment--like Tampa Bay--that gives him the opportunity to start from scratch whenever he returns next season. I think he'll make the most of it; his style is tailor-made for the National League, and his speed will be on full display in the spacious ballparks of the NL West. Presumably Mattingly will bat him at the top of the order again (after hitting seventh for much of his tenure in Boston), where he can set the table for Kemp, Gonzo, Ethier and HanRam. I'm betting he has several productive years in front of him because he still has all the physical tools. I've said it before and I'll say it again; if he stays healthy, he's going to put up big numbers.
Adrian Gonzalez
A massive upgrade over Loney. The native Californian leaves the friendly confines of Fenway Park and returns to the NL West, where he established himself as one of the game's top hitters with the San Diego Padres by averaging 32 home runs, 100 RBI and a 141 OPS+ from 2006-'10 despite calling PetCo Park home. Since then shoulder problems have diminished his home run pop somewhat, but he's still one of the best pure hitters in the game. A-Gone is in the midst of a torrid second half, as he's batted .333 with ten dingers and 44 RBI in 38 games since the All-Star Break. It looks like his power has returned, so expect him to keep raking while Don Mattingly installs him as the new cleanup hitter. Perhaps as a harbinger of good things to come, Gonzalez belted a three-run homer in his first at-bat with the Dodgers.
Nick Punto
A solid bench guy to have because he's so versatile, a utilityman with a solid glove who can be plugged in at second, third or short. The California native can't hit worth a lick, but has value as a defensive replacement or a pinch runner in the late innings. As far as throw-ins go, you could do worse. With the way players are getting injured these days, bench depth is becoming more important than ever before.
In the wake of their disastrous 2011 season marred by financial turmoil off the field, the new-look Dodgers are all in, willing to do whatever it takes to win. Like Boston, LA hasn't appeared in the postseason since 2009 and is itching to get back. Just two games out of first place in the NL West, they're poised to make a September run that would dethrone the Giants. But that's not going to be easy the way Matt Cain (2.83 ERA), Madison Bumgarner (2.93 ERA) , Ryan Vogelsong (2.90 ERA) and Tim Lincecum (3.10 ERA in the second half) are pitching, backed by Buster Posey's MVP worthy season. The offense suffered a big blow after losing Melky Cabrera for the rest of the season, but they have enough bats to keep scoring runs in his absence. Angel Pagan, Marco Scutaro and Pablo Sandoval have all picked up the slack, and Hunter Pence is going to snap out of his funk eventually. This divisional race will likely go down to the wire and could be decided by the three game series between the two that marks the season's finish line. Coolstandings gives San Fran a 62.2 percent chance of winning the division, nearly twice as likely to capture the flag as Los Angeles (31.7 percent). In the end, San Francisco's formidable starting rotation will probably be too much to overcome, so the Dodgers may have to settle for one of the wild cards. They're neck and neck with the defending World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals for the second one, just a half game back. The Redbirds have a loaded lineup (Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran, Yadier Molina, Allen Craig, Jon Jay, Rafael Furcal, David Freese), too, but I'm not convinced their pitching will hold up in September. Lance Lynn, Kyle Lohse, and Jake Westbrook have overachieved lately and could be due for some regression.
I have to believe the Dodgers will find a way to make the playoffs. They're too talented not to, but a lot of it hinges on Beckett and Ted Lilly stablizing the rotation by pitching well down the stretch. Coletti's wheeling and dealing has assembled a veritable juggernaut. He's put the pieces in place, and if they play the way they're supposed to, this team is going to be tough to beat.
Then again, you could have said the same thing about the Red Sox not too long ago.
Friday, August 17, 2012
Sox-Yanks Preview
The Red Sox wrap up their ten game road trip with a weekend series at The Stadium. Boston took two out of three last time it was in town three short weeks ago. Since then the Bosox have gone 7-10, dropping three games below .500 and three additional games behind New York in the standings. Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon have returned, but Will Middlebrooks is done for the season and David Ortiz still hasn't returned from his achilles injury. With the organization embroiled in a toxic blend of controversy, disappointment and widespread dissent off the field on a daily basis, on the field their playoff hopes continue to evaporate with each and every loss. They are in disarray, and time is running out for them to make a late season playoff push. Yankees, on the other hand, own the best record in the American League at 70-48 and have kept humming along despite losing C.C. Sabathia and Alex Rodriguez in recent weeks.
Given the two teams' vastly different positions in the standings, these games don't seem to have much significance. But they do. With a sweep of the strumbling Sox, New York could bury their rivals' season for good. Sink the Red Sox ship and send it to the bottom of the ocean. But if Boston can pull off a stunning sweep, they're back at .500 and maybe, just maybe, will rally and put together that run they've been promising all season long.
Stay tuned.
Friday night: Franklin Morales vs. Phil Hughes
Easily the worst pitching matchup of the series, this one has the makings of a potential slugfest. Morales (3-3, 3.29 ERA) has been a solid spot-starter in his two August outings, allowing just five hits and four earned runs in eleven and one-third innings of work against the light-hitting Twins and Indians. Hughes (11-10, 4.44 ERA) has struggled of late and may be hitting a wall after injuries limited him to just 14 starts last season. He's held Boston to three runs in both of his starts against them this year, but I have a good feeling the offense is going to have a big night against him. Don't be surprised if this one gets ugly early, forcing Bobby Valentine and Joe Girardi to dip into their bullpens in the middle innings.
My prediction: Red Sox 7, Yankees 5
Saturday afternoon: Jon Lester vs. David Phelps
After putting an abysmal July (9.36 ERA and eight home runs allowed) behind him, Boston's ace has settled down since flipping the calendar to a new month. In his three August starts the two-time All-Star has a 3.48 ERA--nearly identical to last season's 3.47 mark--with a 23/4 K/BB ratio and no home runs allowed in 20 and two-thirds innings. After three consecutive starts during mid-July in which he failed to complete the fifth inning, Lester (6-10, 5.20 ERA) has gone at least six in each of his past four turns starting with his last start here. Is coming off his most dominant performance of the season (12 K's against Cleveland), so hopefully he can keep this hot streak going. Phelps (also 3-3, 2.53 ERA) is filling in for the injured Sabathia. The rookie has made just four starts in his brief major league career, but it bears mentioning that his last one went well; two earned runs in five innings against the Texas Rangers. Nobody knows what to expect from him, but I'm fairly confident he won't outpitch Lester, who looks like he's finally turned the corner.
My prediction: Red Sox 6, Yankees 3
Sunday night: Josh Beckett vs. Hiroki Kuroda
Talk about two pitchers going in completely different directions. Since May 21st, a span of almost three months, Josh Beckett (5-10, 5.19 ERA) has made a dozen starts and gotten the W one time. One. His ERA--4.06 at the end of June--has swelled to 5.19. He made one start against the Yankees this year and it wasn't pretty; eight hits and six earned runs allowed in five innings back on July 6th at Fenway. Has gotten rocked in each of his two starts this month and just doesn't appear to be the same pitcher he's been in the past. On the other hand Kuroda (11-8, 3.06 ERA) keeps getting better as the season progresses. Over his past five starts he boasts a 1.44 ERA and 32/5 K/BB rate while limiting opponents to .213/.247/.290 numbers. Pitched a gem the last time he faced the Red Sox by firing eight innings of two-run ball in a game the Yankees would go on to lose in extra innings. I actually think Beckett's going to bounce back, but Kuroda will get the best of him in a low-scoring pitcher's duel.
My Prediction: Yankees 4, Red Sox 2
Given the two teams' vastly different positions in the standings, these games don't seem to have much significance. But they do. With a sweep of the strumbling Sox, New York could bury their rivals' season for good. Sink the Red Sox ship and send it to the bottom of the ocean. But if Boston can pull off a stunning sweep, they're back at .500 and maybe, just maybe, will rally and put together that run they've been promising all season long.
Stay tuned.
Friday night: Franklin Morales vs. Phil Hughes
Easily the worst pitching matchup of the series, this one has the makings of a potential slugfest. Morales (3-3, 3.29 ERA) has been a solid spot-starter in his two August outings, allowing just five hits and four earned runs in eleven and one-third innings of work against the light-hitting Twins and Indians. Hughes (11-10, 4.44 ERA) has struggled of late and may be hitting a wall after injuries limited him to just 14 starts last season. He's held Boston to three runs in both of his starts against them this year, but I have a good feeling the offense is going to have a big night against him. Don't be surprised if this one gets ugly early, forcing Bobby Valentine and Joe Girardi to dip into their bullpens in the middle innings.
My prediction: Red Sox 7, Yankees 5
Saturday afternoon: Jon Lester vs. David Phelps
After putting an abysmal July (9.36 ERA and eight home runs allowed) behind him, Boston's ace has settled down since flipping the calendar to a new month. In his three August starts the two-time All-Star has a 3.48 ERA--nearly identical to last season's 3.47 mark--with a 23/4 K/BB ratio and no home runs allowed in 20 and two-thirds innings. After three consecutive starts during mid-July in which he failed to complete the fifth inning, Lester (6-10, 5.20 ERA) has gone at least six in each of his past four turns starting with his last start here. Is coming off his most dominant performance of the season (12 K's against Cleveland), so hopefully he can keep this hot streak going. Phelps (also 3-3, 2.53 ERA) is filling in for the injured Sabathia. The rookie has made just four starts in his brief major league career, but it bears mentioning that his last one went well; two earned runs in five innings against the Texas Rangers. Nobody knows what to expect from him, but I'm fairly confident he won't outpitch Lester, who looks like he's finally turned the corner.
My prediction: Red Sox 6, Yankees 3
Sunday night: Josh Beckett vs. Hiroki Kuroda
Talk about two pitchers going in completely different directions. Since May 21st, a span of almost three months, Josh Beckett (5-10, 5.19 ERA) has made a dozen starts and gotten the W one time. One. His ERA--4.06 at the end of June--has swelled to 5.19. He made one start against the Yankees this year and it wasn't pretty; eight hits and six earned runs allowed in five innings back on July 6th at Fenway. Has gotten rocked in each of his two starts this month and just doesn't appear to be the same pitcher he's been in the past. On the other hand Kuroda (11-8, 3.06 ERA) keeps getting better as the season progresses. Over his past five starts he boasts a 1.44 ERA and 32/5 K/BB rate while limiting opponents to .213/.247/.290 numbers. Pitched a gem the last time he faced the Red Sox by firing eight innings of two-run ball in a game the Yankees would go on to lose in extra innings. I actually think Beckett's going to bounce back, but Kuroda will get the best of him in a low-scoring pitcher's duel.
My Prediction: Yankees 4, Red Sox 2
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