A look back at those who flopped in 2012, either due to injuries, bad performance, or a combination of both. If you picked these guys on your fantasy teams, hopefully you cut bait before these anchors dragged your squad down into the depths of the rotisserie abyss. To see the 2011 version of the team, go here:
C Alex Avila
2011: 63 runs 19 home runs 82 RBI 3 steals .295/.389/.506
2012: 42 runs 9 home runs 48 RBI 2 steals .243/.352/.384
1B Eric Hosmer (also considered Carlos Pena and Casey Kotchman)
2011: 66 runs 19 home runs 78 RBI 11 steals .293/.334/.465
2012: 65 runs 14 home runs 60 RBI 16 steals .232/.304/.359
2B Jemile Weeks
2011: 50 runs 2 home runs 36 RBI 22 steals .303/.340/.421
2012: 54 runs 2 home runs 20 RBI 16 steals .221/.305/.304
3B Danny Valencia
2011: 63 runs 15 home runs 72 RBI 2 steals .246/.294/.383
2012: 14 runs 3 home runs 21 RBI 0 steals .188/.199/.299
SS Jhonny Peralta (almost went with Yunel Escobar)
2011: 68 runs 21 home runs 86 RBI 0 steals .299/.345/.478
2012: 58 runs 13 home runs 63 RBI 1 steal .239/.305/.384
OF Brennan Boesch
2011: 75 runs 16 home runs 54 RBI 5 steals .283/.341/.458
2012: 52 runs 12 home runs 54 RBI 6 steals .240/.286/.372
OF Jacoby Ellsbury
2011: 119 runs 32 home runs 105 RBI 39 steals .321/.376/.552
2012: 43 runs 4 home runs 26 RBI 14 steals .271/.313/.370
OF Jeff Francoeur
2011: 77 runs 20 home runs 87 RBI 22 steals .285/.329/.476
2012: 58 runs 16 home runs 49 RBI 4 steals .235/.287/.378
DH Michael Young
2011: 88 runs 11 home runs 106 RBI 6 steals .338/.380/.474
2012: 79 runs 8 home runs 67 RBI 2 steals .277/.312/.370
SP Jon Lester
2011: 15-9 3.47 ERA 1.26 WHIP 182 strikeouts
2012: 9-14 4.82 ERA 1.38 WHIP 166 strikeouts
SP Ricky Romero
2011: 15-11 2.92 ERA 1.14 WHIP 178 strikeouts
2012: 9-14 5.77 ERA 1.67 WHIP 124 strikeouts
SP Ervin Santana
2011: 11-12 3.38 ERA 1.22 WHIP 178 strikeouts
2012: 9-13 5.16 ERA 1.27 WHIP 133 strikeouts
SP Dan Haren
2011: 16-10 3.17 ERA 1.02 WHIP 192 strikeouts
2012: 12-13 4.33 ERA 1.29 WHIP 142 strikeouts
SP Josh Beckett
2011: 13-7 2.89 ERA 1.03 WHIP 175 strikeouts
2012: 7-14 4.65 ERA 1.33 WHIP 132 strikeouts
RP Mark Melancon
2011: 8-4 2.78 ERA 1.22 WHIP 66 strikeouts 20 saves
2012: 0-2 6.20 ERA 1.27 WHIP 41 strikeouts 1 save
CL Francisco Cordero
2011: 5-3 2.45 ERA 1.02 WHIP 42 strikeouts 37 saves
2012: 3-8 7.55 ERA 2.01 WHIP 31 strikeouts 2 saves
Showing posts with label Beckett. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Beckett. Show all posts
Friday, January 11, 2013
Monday, October 15, 2012
25 Bold(ish) Predictions Review
A review of some bold(ish) predictions I made at the end of August.
1. Mike Trout will not win the AL MVP award: CORRECT (probably)
Trout and his 10.7 bWAR deserve it, but I think Miguel Cabrera will take home the trophy after becoming the first player in 45 years to win the Triple Crown.
2. Houston wins fewer than 50 games this year: WRONG
The Astros finished the season strong, playing .500 ball in September/October to end up with 55 victories. Have fun in the American League next year, Houston!
3. Baltimore is finally going to hit the skids: WRONG
Not only did the Orioles make the playoffs for the first time since 1997, but they nearly stole the division from the Yankees down the stretch and gave New York's offense fits during the ALDS. I'd be shocked if they finish above .500 next year, though.
4. Hanley Ramirez reaches 30 home runs for the first time since 2008: WRONG
HanRam launched his 24th and final long ball of the season on September 3rd, failing to go deep in the month of games that followed.
5. Justin Verlander repeats as AL Cy Young champion: CORRECT (probably)
I'm pretty confident that Verlander will win after posting near identical numbers to the ones he put up in 2011. David Price, Jered Weaver, Chris Sale, and Felix Hernandez all have strong cases, but Verlander is the guy.
6. The Red Sox avoid their first losing season since 1997: WRONG
Next question.
7. Josh Beckett (5-12, 5.21 ERA at the time) is going to turn his season around with the Dodgers: CORRECT
This one was a no-brainer. In his seven starts with the Dodgers, Beckett posted a nifty 2.93 ERA and fanned 38 batters in 43 innings of work. Expect that success to continue in 2013.
8. Bryce Harper goes 20/20: WRONG
The 19 year-old phenom just missed, finishing his sensational rookie year with 22 home runs and 18 stolen bases.
9. Josh Hamilton bats .300: WRONG
The 2010 AL MVP batted a career low .285.
10. Buster Posey knocks in 100 runs: CORRECT
The likely NL MVP amassed 103 RBI in 2012.
11. Nobody on the Houston Astros finishes with 15 home runs: WRONG
Justin Maxwell slugged 18 and Jed Lowrie blasted 16.
12. Joe Mauer gets traded: WRONG
Didn't happen.
13. Adam Dunn won't break Mark Reynolds' single season strikeout record: CORRECT
Dunn's 222 whiffs paced the majors, but fell three short of the Reynolds' record of futility. The Big Donkey also managed to keep his batting average above the Mendoza line by finishing the year at .204.
14. David Ortiz will not play again in 2012: CORRECT
Why bother?
15. Nobody in the NL will strike out more than 200 times: CORRECT
Dunn was the only player to pile up more than 200 K's, though Curtis Granderson came dangerously close with 195. Danny Espinosa "led" the Senior Circuit with 189.
16. Both Los Angeles teams make the playoffs: WRONG
Neither LA baseball team made the playoffs, which blows my mind given how stacked both of those rosters are. The Halos have the best rotation in baseball with Zack Greinke, Dan Haren, C.J. Wilson, and Ervin Santana, plus Trout, Albert Pujols, and Mark Trumbo. The Dodgers added HanRam, Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez, Shane Victorino, and Carl Crawford to a team that already had Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Clayton Kershaw. It's fair to call both clubs underachievers after the Angels finished third in their division and the second place Dodgers wound up eight games behind the Giants.
17. Detroit will catch Chicago in the AL Central: CORRECT
The Tigers ended the season on a tear by winning eight of their final ten games, passing the White Sox and winning the division by three games. Chicago collapsed, dropping eleven of fifteen to close the season.
18. Eric Hosmer (.240/.310/.369) will get hot: WRONG
Seeing as how Hosmer's three rate stats only got worse (ended up at .232/.304/.359), he clearly did not catch fire in September.
19. The Reds will win 100 games and have the best record in baseball: WRONG
Cincinatti won 97 games and Washington had the best record in baseball. Neither made it beyond the first round.
20. The Braves blow their postseason birth, again: WRONG
Atlanta cruised to the NL Wild Card by winning 94 games. Unfortunately, a blown infield fly call in the play-in game against St. Louis brought a premature end to the Chipper Jones era.
For reasons unknown, I did not make a 21st or 22nd prediction.
23. Ichiro Suzuki leads AL position players in games played for the third year in a row: CORRECT
Suzuki played in all 162 games this season, a feat he's achieved four times in his illustrious career.
24. 23 year-old Madison Bumgarner finishes higher than rotation-mate Matt Cain on the NL Cy Young ballot: WRONG
Cain posted a superior winning percentage, ERA and WHIP while completing more innings. Most of their stats are indistinguishable, but Cain clearly had the better season.
25. Chipper Jones will draw a walk in the last at-bat of his career: WRONG
The Cooperstown-bound third baseman legged out an infield single in his final plate appearance.
Overall: 9-for-23 (.391). I'll take it.
1. Mike Trout will not win the AL MVP award: CORRECT (probably)
Trout and his 10.7 bWAR deserve it, but I think Miguel Cabrera will take home the trophy after becoming the first player in 45 years to win the Triple Crown.
2. Houston wins fewer than 50 games this year: WRONG
The Astros finished the season strong, playing .500 ball in September/October to end up with 55 victories. Have fun in the American League next year, Houston!
3. Baltimore is finally going to hit the skids: WRONG
Not only did the Orioles make the playoffs for the first time since 1997, but they nearly stole the division from the Yankees down the stretch and gave New York's offense fits during the ALDS. I'd be shocked if they finish above .500 next year, though.
4. Hanley Ramirez reaches 30 home runs for the first time since 2008: WRONG
HanRam launched his 24th and final long ball of the season on September 3rd, failing to go deep in the month of games that followed.
5. Justin Verlander repeats as AL Cy Young champion: CORRECT (probably)
I'm pretty confident that Verlander will win after posting near identical numbers to the ones he put up in 2011. David Price, Jered Weaver, Chris Sale, and Felix Hernandez all have strong cases, but Verlander is the guy.
6. The Red Sox avoid their first losing season since 1997: WRONG
Next question.
7. Josh Beckett (5-12, 5.21 ERA at the time) is going to turn his season around with the Dodgers: CORRECT
This one was a no-brainer. In his seven starts with the Dodgers, Beckett posted a nifty 2.93 ERA and fanned 38 batters in 43 innings of work. Expect that success to continue in 2013.
8. Bryce Harper goes 20/20: WRONG
The 19 year-old phenom just missed, finishing his sensational rookie year with 22 home runs and 18 stolen bases.
9. Josh Hamilton bats .300: WRONG
The 2010 AL MVP batted a career low .285.
10. Buster Posey knocks in 100 runs: CORRECT
The likely NL MVP amassed 103 RBI in 2012.
11. Nobody on the Houston Astros finishes with 15 home runs: WRONG
Justin Maxwell slugged 18 and Jed Lowrie blasted 16.
12. Joe Mauer gets traded: WRONG
Didn't happen.
13. Adam Dunn won't break Mark Reynolds' single season strikeout record: CORRECT
Dunn's 222 whiffs paced the majors, but fell three short of the Reynolds' record of futility. The Big Donkey also managed to keep his batting average above the Mendoza line by finishing the year at .204.
14. David Ortiz will not play again in 2012: CORRECT
Why bother?
15. Nobody in the NL will strike out more than 200 times: CORRECT
Dunn was the only player to pile up more than 200 K's, though Curtis Granderson came dangerously close with 195. Danny Espinosa "led" the Senior Circuit with 189.
16. Both Los Angeles teams make the playoffs: WRONG
Neither LA baseball team made the playoffs, which blows my mind given how stacked both of those rosters are. The Halos have the best rotation in baseball with Zack Greinke, Dan Haren, C.J. Wilson, and Ervin Santana, plus Trout, Albert Pujols, and Mark Trumbo. The Dodgers added HanRam, Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez, Shane Victorino, and Carl Crawford to a team that already had Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Clayton Kershaw. It's fair to call both clubs underachievers after the Angels finished third in their division and the second place Dodgers wound up eight games behind the Giants.
17. Detroit will catch Chicago in the AL Central: CORRECT
The Tigers ended the season on a tear by winning eight of their final ten games, passing the White Sox and winning the division by three games. Chicago collapsed, dropping eleven of fifteen to close the season.
18. Eric Hosmer (.240/.310/.369) will get hot: WRONG
Seeing as how Hosmer's three rate stats only got worse (ended up at .232/.304/.359), he clearly did not catch fire in September.
19. The Reds will win 100 games and have the best record in baseball: WRONG
Cincinatti won 97 games and Washington had the best record in baseball. Neither made it beyond the first round.
20. The Braves blow their postseason birth, again: WRONG
Atlanta cruised to the NL Wild Card by winning 94 games. Unfortunately, a blown infield fly call in the play-in game against St. Louis brought a premature end to the Chipper Jones era.
For reasons unknown, I did not make a 21st or 22nd prediction.
23. Ichiro Suzuki leads AL position players in games played for the third year in a row: CORRECT
Suzuki played in all 162 games this season, a feat he's achieved four times in his illustrious career.
24. 23 year-old Madison Bumgarner finishes higher than rotation-mate Matt Cain on the NL Cy Young ballot: WRONG
Cain posted a superior winning percentage, ERA and WHIP while completing more innings. Most of their stats are indistinguishable, but Cain clearly had the better season.
25. Chipper Jones will draw a walk in the last at-bat of his career: WRONG
The Cooperstown-bound third baseman legged out an infield single in his final plate appearance.
Overall: 9-for-23 (.391). I'll take it.
Sunday, August 26, 2012
Red Sox Reshape Roster
But with the team sputtering--seven games below .500, nine and a half games out of the second wild card and sporting a worse record than the Seattle freaking Mariners--it was evident that some sort of sweeping change was necessary to get them back on track. For the third year in a row, Boston will miss the playoffs, something that hasn't happened since 2000-2002 (Coolstandings.com gives them a 0.6 percent chance of reaching the postseason, and even those odds seem too generous). The team is headed towards its first losing season since 1997. They've gone 67-87 since last September 1st. It's hard to believe that at the same time a year ago, the "best team ever" was gunning for 100 wins and a World Series title.
But the Red Sox are expected to contend every year, so obviously this level of mediocrity is unacceptable. Boston, a city that cherishes baseball as much as it loves clam chowder and the legend of Paul Revere, will not tolerate losing seasons as long as it continues to pay the most expensive ticket prices in the sport. Red Sox Nation is impatient (and has every right to be after waiting 86 years between World Series) I give all the credit in the world to Boston GM Ben Cherington for getting creative and orchestrating such a groundbreaking trade to change the face of the franchise. He deserves a pat on the back for trying to retool the team on the fly. He could have easily blamed this lost season on a crippling combination of slumps and injuries, sat on his hands for the rest of the summer and taken his chances with the same team next year, perhaps with a new field manager in tow. Instead, he recognized the team was going nowhere because Theo Epstein's spending sprees tied up much of his financial resources. The bloated payroll, much of it dedicated to injured/ineffective players such as Beckett, Crawford, John Lackey, and Daisuke Matsuzaka, was working against them. It choked Cherington, limiting him to making minor moves and preventing him from pursuing players and deals that could actually make an impact (last winter he was unable to re-sign Jonathan Papelbon or court free agents such as Jose Reyes, C.J. Wilson, and Mark Buehrle). So he took a cue from the Philadelphia Phillies, who were mired in the exact same situation as the Red Sox--massive payroll, devastated by injuries, treading water. After re-signing Cole Hamels they unloaded Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino at the trade deadline. Four weeks later, Boston followed suit.
By all accounts this blockbuster trade is a great move for the Red Sox and a big win for Cherington, who hasn't been able to do anything right since stepping in for Theo Epstein last October. After all, his recent track record is littered with duds; he hired Bobby Valentine, traded Josh Reddick for Andrew Bailey and Ryan Sweeney, dealt Jed Lowrie for Mark Melancon, sent Marco Scutaro to Colorado, swapped Kevin Youkilis for a couple of nobodies, and stood pat the trade deadline instead of shaking things up when Boston still had a chance to make the playoffs. Cherington's moves only spilled gasoline into a raging inferno, adding to the team's myriad problems instead of solving them. But he just gave himself and his team a clean slate, and if this move works out for him, we might remember him as the man who cleaned up Theo Epstein's expensive mess with one big broom. In a way, this move feels like a much larger version of his predecessor's pivotal Nomar Garciaparra trade in 2004, a bold midseason deal that dumped an unhappy, underperforming star player to the NL for fifty cents on the dollar but ultimately worked because it greatly improved clubhouse chemistry and addressed the team's needs. In the end, the degree to which this deal suceeds depends on who Cherington is able to acquire with all the payroll he just freed up.
And that's why I support the move; because it will save the team more than $260 million in player salaries (not including Dice-K, who's coming off the books in a few months as well) over the next five years. After that kind of salary dump, you'd think the team had changed its name to the "Boston Mets." But with a much more flexible payroll, Cherington will have sufficient funds to re-sign David Ortiz and Cody Ross, potentially woo Jacoby Ellsbury away from free agency (an unlikely scenario considering Scott Boras represents him, but at least the Sox could lay down an appetizing offer and then try to trade him if he's not interested). He can go after starting pitchers like Zack Greinke, Ryan Dempster and James Shields, or perhaps try to land a Josh Hamilton, Nick Swisher, B.J. Upton, Michael Bourn or Shane Victorino. Cherington has stressed the need to be disciplined and smart about how he will allocate his new spending money, indicating that he won't get carried away with reckless splurging as Epstein did during the latter half of his tenure (i.e. throwing money at free agents just for the sake of spending money/making a splash). In a nutshell, he intends to spend his allowance wisely, an approach that should prevent this sort of thing from happening again in the near future.
And it's not like the Red Sox are blowing up their team Florida Marlins style. Much has been made about how the trade is like pressing a reset button, but that implies the team is starting over from starting over from scratch like the Houston Astros. In reality, they still have a great core of Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Will Middlebrooks, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and Daniel Bard, all of whom are in their primes. With a restocked farm system and the right moves to complement this nucleus, the Red Sox could contend as soon as next year. No need to undergo a full blown rebuilding process when the roster still has plenty of big league talent to build around. With some more starting pitching depth and another outfield bat, they're going to be a dangerous team in 2013.
Still, I hate to lose a hitter of Gonzalez's caliber, especially since offense is at such a premium these days. He was worth the investment. But at the same time, I realize he had to be sacrificed in order to get LA to take Beckett and Crawford off our hands. Gonzo was a perfect fit for Fenway with his gap-to-gap hitting style and ability to take advantage of the Green Monster with his opposite field power. A-Gone had the potential to put together a Hall of Fame career as the team's best everyday first baseman since Mo Vaughn. He's a class act, a true professional who plays hard, quietly goes about his business and keeps his mouth shut. Lord knows the Red Sox could use more players like him. It was a joy watching him hit everyday, and the Sox are going to miss his presence in the middle of their order. Luckily I was fortunate enough to see his last game with Boston in person, even though he ended his Red Sox career (and that game) by whiffing on three consecutive pitches with the tying run on base.
Even though I'm not a big fan of trading proven big league talent for prospects, I think the Sox got a pretty promising package in return:
James Loney
Once a top prospect and first round draft pick who batted a robust .331/.387/.538 as a 23 year-old rookie in 2007, Loney hasn't come close to matching those numbers in any of the five seasons since. The power he displayed never developed, either, as he's failed to swat more than thirteen homers in any subsequent season. Given the promise he displayed early on, his regression into an average player at best can be regarded as hugely disappointing. He's 28, in the prime of his career, and instead he's having the worst season of his career, batting just .254/.302/.344 with only four home runs and 33 RBI. That kind of production suggests he's a glove first shortstop, when in reality he's splitting time at first with Juan Rivera. Loney will be a free agent this winter, and unless he regroups over the next six weeks I doubt he'll stay in Boston beyond that. Fenway could help revitalize his career, but he looks so lost at the plate that it doesn't matter where he hits.
Jerry Sands
The slugging 24 year-old first baseman has posted monster numbers (.566 SLG, .943 OPS) in the minor leagues but that success hasn't followed him into the Show, where he's batted just .244/.325/.376 with four home runs in 70 career games. He's not Adrian Gonzalez and probably never will be, but has the potential to be a franchise cornerstone at first base for years to come. The 6'4", 225 pound righthanded power hitter has the same build as Ryan Lavarnaway and should enjoy taking aim at the Green Monster.
Ivan De Jesus Jr.
Not sure what the Sox plan on doing with a light-hitting second baseman, given that they already have one of the game's top keystones in Dustin Pedroia. They could hold on to him in case Pedroia gets hurt, but he probably has more value as trade bait.
Alan Webster
A highly regarded sinkerball pitcher, the 22 year-old has stalled out in AA and will likely need another year or two of seasoning before he's ready for the big leagues. He is the only player in the deal without any MLB experience.
Rubby De La Rosa
The 23 year-old pitching prospect looks fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, as his mid-90s velocity has returned. Has dominant stuff, but needs to harness his command in order to become an effective starting pitcher at the big league level.
As for the Dodgers, it's been a busy summer for them and their GM NEd Coletti, who added some punch to a top-heavy lineup by trading for Victorino and Hanley Ramirez prior to the July 31st deadline. Gonzalez gives them another offensive weapon, as will Crawford when he returns, and Beckett bolsters the starting rotation. Now that the dust has settled, you could make the case that the Dodgers' roster now features the best player (2011 NL MVP runner-up Matt Kemp), first baseman(Gonzalez, as long as Joey Votto is out), shortstop (Ramirez), starting pitcher (2011 NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw) and closer (Kenley Jansen) in baseball.
Here are their four newest additions:
Josh Beckett
Nobody needed a change of scenery more than Beckett, presently the most hated athlete wearing a Boston uniform. His attitude, arrogance and abysmal performance, along with unhealthy dietary habits and leisurely rounds of golf, caused the city to sour on him. He had to go. His behavior over the past year has erased any memory of his postseason dominance during the team's 2007 World Series championship run, which is really too bad. The 2007 ALCS MVP could have had a Luis Tiant/Curt Schilling type of legacy here as the October warrior who always saved his best for the games that mattered the most. Instead, his legacy is drinking beer and eating fried chicked with Jon Lester and John Lackey while the Red Sox folded. He squandered any chance he had at redemption by submitting one of his worst seasons to date and hasn't shown any signs of turning it around with just one win in his previous thirteen starts. The 32 year-old's velocity is down and he could be entering the decline phase of his career. Even so, he should show marked improvement against weaker NL competition (hey, I mean if A.J. Burnett can pitch like a Cy Young candidate...). His timing couldn't be better for the Dodgers, since Chad Billingsley was just placed on the disabled list yesterday with inflammation in his right elbow. Beckett's nightmare season (5-11, 5.23 ERA) is far from over, but with a strong finish to the year--perhaps capped by some vintage Beckett postseason performances--he can salvage something positive to build on for the next two years of his contract. He makes his Dodger debut tomorrow against the Rockies at Coors Field. Good luck with that.
Carl Crawford
With Crawford joining All-Stars Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, all three of whom are signed through 2017, the Dodgers now feature the best outfield in baseball for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately Crawford is done for the year after going under the knife (Tommy John surgery) earlier in the week, and thus cannot contribute to the Dodgers' stretch run as they try to nudge past the now Melky Cabrera-less San Francisco Giants. His brief stint in Beantown was nothing short of an unmitigated disaster; he missed more games (163) than he played (161) and was terrible when he showed up, batting a woeful .260/.292/.419 and providing 0.3 bWAR. You got the sense that Crawford was never really comfortable here, that he was too thin-skinned to handle the claustrophobic atmosphere of the fishbowl that is Boston sports. Throw in the added pressure to live up to his gargantuan seven year, $142 million deal and it's not too hard to see why he didn't suceed with the Bosox. It's also important to remember that Crawford didn't want to play for Boston in the first place; the other LA team topped his list of preferred destinations when he hit the free agent market two years ago, but the Red Sox offered more money and the Halos wound up absorbing an even worse contract by trading for Vernon Wells (a lose-lose if I've ever seen one). Needless to say, he should be much happier in the city of Angels, a more laid back environment--like Tampa Bay--that gives him the opportunity to start from scratch whenever he returns next season. I think he'll make the most of it; his style is tailor-made for the National League, and his speed will be on full display in the spacious ballparks of the NL West. Presumably Mattingly will bat him at the top of the order again (after hitting seventh for much of his tenure in Boston), where he can set the table for Kemp, Gonzo, Ethier and HanRam. I'm betting he has several productive years in front of him because he still has all the physical tools. I've said it before and I'll say it again; if he stays healthy, he's going to put up big numbers.
Adrian Gonzalez
A massive upgrade over Loney. The native Californian leaves the friendly confines of Fenway Park and returns to the NL West, where he established himself as one of the game's top hitters with the San Diego Padres by averaging 32 home runs, 100 RBI and a 141 OPS+ from 2006-'10 despite calling PetCo Park home. Since then shoulder problems have diminished his home run pop somewhat, but he's still one of the best pure hitters in the game. A-Gone is in the midst of a torrid second half, as he's batted .333 with ten dingers and 44 RBI in 38 games since the All-Star Break. It looks like his power has returned, so expect him to keep raking while Don Mattingly installs him as the new cleanup hitter. Perhaps as a harbinger of good things to come, Gonzalez belted a three-run homer in his first at-bat with the Dodgers.
Nick Punto
A solid bench guy to have because he's so versatile, a utilityman with a solid glove who can be plugged in at second, third or short. The California native can't hit worth a lick, but has value as a defensive replacement or a pinch runner in the late innings. As far as throw-ins go, you could do worse. With the way players are getting injured these days, bench depth is becoming more important than ever before.
In the wake of their disastrous 2011 season marred by financial turmoil off the field, the new-look Dodgers are all in, willing to do whatever it takes to win. Like Boston, LA hasn't appeared in the postseason since 2009 and is itching to get back. Just two games out of first place in the NL West, they're poised to make a September run that would dethrone the Giants. But that's not going to be easy the way Matt Cain (2.83 ERA), Madison Bumgarner (2.93 ERA) , Ryan Vogelsong (2.90 ERA) and Tim Lincecum (3.10 ERA in the second half) are pitching, backed by Buster Posey's MVP worthy season. The offense suffered a big blow after losing Melky Cabrera for the rest of the season, but they have enough bats to keep scoring runs in his absence. Angel Pagan, Marco Scutaro and Pablo Sandoval have all picked up the slack, and Hunter Pence is going to snap out of his funk eventually. This divisional race will likely go down to the wire and could be decided by the three game series between the two that marks the season's finish line. Coolstandings gives San Fran a 62.2 percent chance of winning the division, nearly twice as likely to capture the flag as Los Angeles (31.7 percent). In the end, San Francisco's formidable starting rotation will probably be too much to overcome, so the Dodgers may have to settle for one of the wild cards. They're neck and neck with the defending World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals for the second one, just a half game back. The Redbirds have a loaded lineup (Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran, Yadier Molina, Allen Craig, Jon Jay, Rafael Furcal, David Freese), too, but I'm not convinced their pitching will hold up in September. Lance Lynn, Kyle Lohse, and Jake Westbrook have overachieved lately and could be due for some regression.
I have to believe the Dodgers will find a way to make the playoffs. They're too talented not to, but a lot of it hinges on Beckett and Ted Lilly stablizing the rotation by pitching well down the stretch. Coletti's wheeling and dealing has assembled a veritable juggernaut. He's put the pieces in place, and if they play the way they're supposed to, this team is going to be tough to beat.
Then again, you could have said the same thing about the Red Sox not too long ago.
Friday, August 17, 2012
Sox-Yanks Preview
The Red Sox wrap up their ten game road trip with a weekend series at The Stadium. Boston took two out of three last time it was in town three short weeks ago. Since then the Bosox have gone 7-10, dropping three games below .500 and three additional games behind New York in the standings. Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon have returned, but Will Middlebrooks is done for the season and David Ortiz still hasn't returned from his achilles injury. With the organization embroiled in a toxic blend of controversy, disappointment and widespread dissent off the field on a daily basis, on the field their playoff hopes continue to evaporate with each and every loss. They are in disarray, and time is running out for them to make a late season playoff push. Yankees, on the other hand, own the best record in the American League at 70-48 and have kept humming along despite losing C.C. Sabathia and Alex Rodriguez in recent weeks.
Given the two teams' vastly different positions in the standings, these games don't seem to have much significance. But they do. With a sweep of the strumbling Sox, New York could bury their rivals' season for good. Sink the Red Sox ship and send it to the bottom of the ocean. But if Boston can pull off a stunning sweep, they're back at .500 and maybe, just maybe, will rally and put together that run they've been promising all season long.
Stay tuned.
Friday night: Franklin Morales vs. Phil Hughes
Easily the worst pitching matchup of the series, this one has the makings of a potential slugfest. Morales (3-3, 3.29 ERA) has been a solid spot-starter in his two August outings, allowing just five hits and four earned runs in eleven and one-third innings of work against the light-hitting Twins and Indians. Hughes (11-10, 4.44 ERA) has struggled of late and may be hitting a wall after injuries limited him to just 14 starts last season. He's held Boston to three runs in both of his starts against them this year, but I have a good feeling the offense is going to have a big night against him. Don't be surprised if this one gets ugly early, forcing Bobby Valentine and Joe Girardi to dip into their bullpens in the middle innings.
My prediction: Red Sox 7, Yankees 5
Saturday afternoon: Jon Lester vs. David Phelps
After putting an abysmal July (9.36 ERA and eight home runs allowed) behind him, Boston's ace has settled down since flipping the calendar to a new month. In his three August starts the two-time All-Star has a 3.48 ERA--nearly identical to last season's 3.47 mark--with a 23/4 K/BB ratio and no home runs allowed in 20 and two-thirds innings. After three consecutive starts during mid-July in which he failed to complete the fifth inning, Lester (6-10, 5.20 ERA) has gone at least six in each of his past four turns starting with his last start here. Is coming off his most dominant performance of the season (12 K's against Cleveland), so hopefully he can keep this hot streak going. Phelps (also 3-3, 2.53 ERA) is filling in for the injured Sabathia. The rookie has made just four starts in his brief major league career, but it bears mentioning that his last one went well; two earned runs in five innings against the Texas Rangers. Nobody knows what to expect from him, but I'm fairly confident he won't outpitch Lester, who looks like he's finally turned the corner.
My prediction: Red Sox 6, Yankees 3
Sunday night: Josh Beckett vs. Hiroki Kuroda
Talk about two pitchers going in completely different directions. Since May 21st, a span of almost three months, Josh Beckett (5-10, 5.19 ERA) has made a dozen starts and gotten the W one time. One. His ERA--4.06 at the end of June--has swelled to 5.19. He made one start against the Yankees this year and it wasn't pretty; eight hits and six earned runs allowed in five innings back on July 6th at Fenway. Has gotten rocked in each of his two starts this month and just doesn't appear to be the same pitcher he's been in the past. On the other hand Kuroda (11-8, 3.06 ERA) keeps getting better as the season progresses. Over his past five starts he boasts a 1.44 ERA and 32/5 K/BB rate while limiting opponents to .213/.247/.290 numbers. Pitched a gem the last time he faced the Red Sox by firing eight innings of two-run ball in a game the Yankees would go on to lose in extra innings. I actually think Beckett's going to bounce back, but Kuroda will get the best of him in a low-scoring pitcher's duel.
My Prediction: Yankees 4, Red Sox 2
Given the two teams' vastly different positions in the standings, these games don't seem to have much significance. But they do. With a sweep of the strumbling Sox, New York could bury their rivals' season for good. Sink the Red Sox ship and send it to the bottom of the ocean. But if Boston can pull off a stunning sweep, they're back at .500 and maybe, just maybe, will rally and put together that run they've been promising all season long.
Stay tuned.
Friday night: Franklin Morales vs. Phil Hughes
Easily the worst pitching matchup of the series, this one has the makings of a potential slugfest. Morales (3-3, 3.29 ERA) has been a solid spot-starter in his two August outings, allowing just five hits and four earned runs in eleven and one-third innings of work against the light-hitting Twins and Indians. Hughes (11-10, 4.44 ERA) has struggled of late and may be hitting a wall after injuries limited him to just 14 starts last season. He's held Boston to three runs in both of his starts against them this year, but I have a good feeling the offense is going to have a big night against him. Don't be surprised if this one gets ugly early, forcing Bobby Valentine and Joe Girardi to dip into their bullpens in the middle innings.
My prediction: Red Sox 7, Yankees 5
Saturday afternoon: Jon Lester vs. David Phelps
After putting an abysmal July (9.36 ERA and eight home runs allowed) behind him, Boston's ace has settled down since flipping the calendar to a new month. In his three August starts the two-time All-Star has a 3.48 ERA--nearly identical to last season's 3.47 mark--with a 23/4 K/BB ratio and no home runs allowed in 20 and two-thirds innings. After three consecutive starts during mid-July in which he failed to complete the fifth inning, Lester (6-10, 5.20 ERA) has gone at least six in each of his past four turns starting with his last start here. Is coming off his most dominant performance of the season (12 K's against Cleveland), so hopefully he can keep this hot streak going. Phelps (also 3-3, 2.53 ERA) is filling in for the injured Sabathia. The rookie has made just four starts in his brief major league career, but it bears mentioning that his last one went well; two earned runs in five innings against the Texas Rangers. Nobody knows what to expect from him, but I'm fairly confident he won't outpitch Lester, who looks like he's finally turned the corner.
My prediction: Red Sox 6, Yankees 3
Sunday night: Josh Beckett vs. Hiroki Kuroda
Talk about two pitchers going in completely different directions. Since May 21st, a span of almost three months, Josh Beckett (5-10, 5.19 ERA) has made a dozen starts and gotten the W one time. One. His ERA--4.06 at the end of June--has swelled to 5.19. He made one start against the Yankees this year and it wasn't pretty; eight hits and six earned runs allowed in five innings back on July 6th at Fenway. Has gotten rocked in each of his two starts this month and just doesn't appear to be the same pitcher he's been in the past. On the other hand Kuroda (11-8, 3.06 ERA) keeps getting better as the season progresses. Over his past five starts he boasts a 1.44 ERA and 32/5 K/BB rate while limiting opponents to .213/.247/.290 numbers. Pitched a gem the last time he faced the Red Sox by firing eight innings of two-run ball in a game the Yankees would go on to lose in extra innings. I actually think Beckett's going to bounce back, but Kuroda will get the best of him in a low-scoring pitcher's duel.
My Prediction: Yankees 4, Red Sox 2
Sunday, July 15, 2012
Red Sox Pitching First Half Review
Why are the Red Sox sitting at .500 more than halfway through the season? Since the offense is second only to the Rangers in runs scored, it's clear that the culprit for Boston's sustained mediocrity is the pitching staff. But it's not fair to point fingers at the bullpen, which has been phenomenal since April. No; the blame lies with the same guys who were guzzling beers, stuffing their faces with fried chicken and playing videogames in the comfy clubhouse confines last year while the Sox were choking away their huge Wild Card lead. The starting pitching, or lack thereof, sunk their playoff aspirations last year and is at it again in 2012. To be fair, the pitching vastly improved throughout the first half:
April 11-11 5.54 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 1.95 K/BB ratio
May 15-14 3.93 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 2.16 K/BB ratio
June 15-12 3.31 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 4.17 K/BB ratio
So as you can see the pitching was abysmal in April, slightly above average in May and stellar in June. Despite the tough schedule in front of them, Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz are all healthy again for the first time in a month. So if that Big Three can pitch like they're supposed to and string together some strong starts, than this team will finally get rolling and make a second half surge similar to the one the '04 team made in the wake of the Nomar Garciaparra trade. Even so, I'm not convinced the staff has enough guns this year to make a serious postseason run, and I can't beleive Bobby Valentine says he doesn't think the team needs another starting pitcher. They needed one last Novemeber, and they still need one now. Let's see if Cherington can work some magic at the trade deadline and bring in a Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza or Wandy Rodriguez. Maybe he can spare a couple of Boston's 300 outfielders.
SP Josh Beckett (4-7, 4.43 ERA)
The problem with Beckett is that he's paid and expected to be a number one starter but the reality is that he's always pitched more like a number two. His reputation as a big game pitcher stems from his impressive postseason resume (much like Curt Schilling), but during the regular season he's not an elite hurler by any means. Beckett has just one top-five Cy Young finish to his credit, and in his eleven seasons prior to this one he's had three--2005, 2007 and 2011--when he pitched like an ace. His career ERA is 3.87 and he's never been exceptionally durable, either (remember Golfgate?). I bring this up because I think people still expect too much out of him, even though by now we know what he is; a good, sometimes great pitcher, but not somebody who can lead a staff (Lester, who's been much better and more consistent since 2008, can). But why has he regressed so much after an outstanding 2011 season, when he posted a career best 2.89 ERA and 1.03 WHIP? For starters, he really hasn't pitched as badly as his numbers suggest. Back in May I wrote about how Beckett's stats were inflated by a pair of early season shellackings. While he hasn't earned a win since May 20th, that's hardly his fault; Boston's lineup has let him down, averaging just two runs per game over his next five starts. Then there was that shaky start against the Yankees before the Break. It was a microcosm of his season in that he gets rocked early (five runs allowed in the first inning) but settles down and pitches well afterwards. There' evidence that he's been unlucky, too. His FIP is 3.69, almost perfectly in line with his career 3.68 figure, and his xFIP is 3.98, almost half a run below his ERA. His 67.1 LOB% is the second lowest of his career (well below the league average of 72 percent). His 1.20 WHIP is still quite good and leads the rotation. Still, the 32 year-old isn't quite the same pitcher he was in his prime. His fastball velocity is down to 91.8 miles per hour, two full MPH below his career average. As a result, he's throwing fewer fastballs and is relying on more cutters, a risky trade-off given that cutters can easily tail over the heart of the plate or out of the strike zone if the pitcher isn't locating them well. The diminished velocity probably explains why his K/9 rate sits at a pedestrian 6.5, two full batters beneath his 8.5 career mark coming into 2012. His line drive rate is up because he's not missing bats like he used to, but all things considered he should show marked improvement in the second half. ZiPS has him projected to go 5-3 with a 3.80 ERA the rest of the way, and that sounds about right. This afternoon he takes the hill in the rubber game against fellow big-game pitcher James Shields in Tampa Bay.
SP Jon Lester (5-6, 4.49 ERA)
Lester is supposed to be the ace of the staff, and it's safe to say the lefty didn't pitch like one during the first half. But here's the thing; despite the disappointing numbers he really hasn't been that bad. Like Beckett, Lester has been undone by two very poor outings; his April 17th start against Texas (an 18-3 drubbing) and his May 25th outing against the Rays. Both came at Fenway, a nightmare for southpaws, against great teams. It happens to the best of 'em. His 3.58 FIP and 3.61 xFIP are slightly better than his career averages. He's trimmed a full batter off his walk rate, and his 2.4 BB/9 ratio represents the best mark of his career. His 3.13 K/BB rate is the best it's been since 2009. As with Beckett, there are also signs that luck hasn't been on his side in the early going. His 66.9 strand rate is far and away the worst of his career. So is his bloated .326 BABiP, which explains why his H/9 rate has spiked from 7.8 last season to 9.8 this year. All of his other periperhals look fine, so expect some regression to the mean over the next few months. The only concern I have is that, like Beckett, his line drive rate has risen because his K/9 rate has fallen off considerably. It's dipped three seasons in a row now, plunging from an elite 10.0 in '09 to a decent 7.5 this year. Unlike Beckett, Lester's throwing fewer cutters this year and has become more of a fastball-changeup pitcher, but there's only a seven MPH difference between the two (ideally you aim for ten). He's not the Cy Young candidate many thought he would be, but he's better than this. I predict a strong turnaround from Lester in the second half. ZiPs agrees with me, as the workhorse is projected to go 7-3 with a 3.54 ERA from this point forward.
SP Clay Buchholz (8-3, 5.54 ERA)
The Sox were counting on Buchholz, who missed the entire second half last year with back problems, to re-solidify the rotation as the number three starter after Lester and Beckett. Perhaps the 27 year-old was still a little rusty after the layoff, because he endured a slump of Tim Lincecum proportions to open the season. It was tough to watch as he allowed at least five earned runs in each of his first six starts as opponents teed off on him for ten long balls and raked at a .343/.428/.618 clip. For all intents and purposes, he turned every opposing batter into Lou Gehrig. His ERA ballooned to 9.09, meaning he had more earned runs than innings pitched. Because Boston's bats backed him with incredible run support--a whopping 8.5 runs per game--he escaped April with a 3-1 record. But he couldn't escape the scrutinty of irate fans calling for his removal from the rotation, but Buchholz held on to his job by turning his season around in impressive fashion. Over his next seven starts he settled down and pitched like he did in 2010, the year he put everything together, made the All-Star team and finished sixth in the Cy Young race. Over that span he maintained a tidy 2.83 ERA, averaged nearly seven innings per start allowed just four home runs. Won all four of his June starts and was on a roll before esophagitis felled him for nearly a month, derailing his comeback. Returned from his DL stint with a strong outing against David Price yesterday afternoon, allowing just five Rays to reach base as he punched out eight and worked his way into the seventh inning. But with the Sox clinging to a 3-2 lead, Valentine yanked his starter after 87 pitches, ordered Hideki Matsui (.175/.241/.263) intentionally walked to load the bases and then watched Matt Albers surrender a pair of runs, wasting Buchholz's outing in the process I'm convinced the rocky start is behind him and have faith he'll continue to pitch the way he has over the past two months.
SP Felix Doubront (9-4, 4.41 ERA)
The 24 year-old southpaw has performed much better than expected in his first full season as a starter. He's helped stabilize the back of the rotation, the fatal flaw during last September's historic collapse. But who would have thought the guy with three career starts coming into the season would be leading the rotation in wins, ERA, ERA+, strikeouts, and K/9 at the break? His 9.1 K/9 rate is especially impressive, fifth best in the American League and better than elite hurlers such as C.C. Sabathia and Justin Verlander. But other than the strikeouts, there's not a whole lot to get excited about. in every other area he grades out as league average. The problem with Doubront is that he doesn't go deep into games. He almost always leaves after six and has completed the seventh inning just once--in a 10-2 rout of the Marlins a month ago--so his average start lasts about five and two-thirds innings. He can be wild at times and needs to be more efficient; he reached 100 pitches in just eight of his 17 starts. Was one of the few Red Sox pitchers who got roughed up in June, to the tune of a 5.83 ERA as opponents battered him for a .918 OPS. After allowing just three home runs in his first eight starts he's served up a dozen over his past nine turns. He's never thrown more than 121 innings in any professional season (minors included) so he'll probably wear down as the season progresses. Overall, as far as number four starters go he's pretty solid. Nothing special, but leaps and bounds better than John Lackey at about three percent of the price.
SP Daniel Bard (5-6, 5.24 ERA)
Following Tim Wakefield's retirement and injuries to Lackey and Matsuzaka, the Red Sox once again lacked depth in the starting rotation. Instead of spending more money on C.J. Wilson, Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson or Roy Oswalt, the team turned to their former setup man. Let's just say that didn't work out as planned. His velocity suffered, as expected, but his command totally abandoned him. It got so bad that instead of just returning the struggling Bard to the bullpen, where he belongs after thriving there for three years, the team flat-out demoted him to Pawtucket in early June to figure things out and build his confidence back up. I wanted Bard to replace Papelbon as the team's closer, and was never totally on board with the idea of converting him to a starting pitcher in the first place. There were plenty of reasons why it was a bad idea; he almost flamed out as a starter in the minors, lacked an effective third pitch and wilted down the stretch last year. The Rangers make it look easy given their success with Wilson, Alexi Ogando and Neftali Feliz, but the reality is that most pitchers can't handle the transition. Throwing 15 pitches against three or four guys in one inning is totally different than having to pace yourself, work through the whole lineup a few times and spread 100 pitches over six innings. Bard's a reliever at heart, and hopefully he can return to form when he's recalled and salvage something out of this lost season. Worst case scenario, he's never the same and becomes this team's version of Joba Chamberlain.
SP Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-3, 6.65 ERA)
Currently collecting dust on the shelf with a right upper trapezius strain, but that should come as no surprise. Dice-K has been perpetually injured these past four seasons, and when he's healthy enough to pitch he's been terrible. Now I know what Yankee fans went through with Carl Pavano, another massive waste of money. I'm going to stop myself before I go off on a red-faced rant because if you don't have anything nice to say, then you shouldn't say anything at all.
SP John Lackey (+)
Out for the season. And while you hate to pay a guy nearly 16 million bucks to spend the year rehabbing from Tommy John, it's better than paying him that much to be worth -2.1 bWAR, as he was last year. Hopefully he can use the time off to clear his head and come back strong next year.
CL Alfredo Aceves (20 saves, 4.23 ERA)
He's no Jonathan Papelbon, but for one tenth the cost he doesn't have to be. His numbers are still inflated by the first two weeks of the season; since his meltdown during the infamous "rock bottom" game against the Yankees on April 21st, he's sporting a 2.81 ERA and opponents are batting just .216/.308/.364 against him. Traditionally a middle reliever, Aceves originally seemed to be a strange choice to replace Bailey even though he was one of the team's top relievers last season. He lacks the bulldog mentality and electric arm typical of most closers, but he's adapted and has held his own. He now leads the majors in games finished and has settled into the ninth-inning role quite nicely. Most importantly, he's earned Valentine's trust. If Ace continues to pitch well throughout the rest of the summer, he deserves to keep the job if/when Bailey returns
The 'pen
What looked like a crippling weakness in the early going has transformed into one of the team's biggest strengths. Despite losing their dominant eighth and ninth inning duo from last year, the relief corps is one of the best in the majors. 36 year-old Scott Atchison (just placed on the DL--another one bites the dust) had been the team's most effective reliever, hands down, and yet at the same time was also the bullpen's unsung hero. Albers (2.27 ERA) has enjoyed another strong first half, but don't forget he had a 2.09 ERA at the end of July last year and wound up with a 4.43 ERA (9.97 from August 1st on). Based on his 4.81 career ERA and current 1.77 K/BB rate, his success is unsustainable. Looks like former first round draft pick/failed starting pitcher prospect Andrew Miller has finally found his calling as a middle reliever. He provides a sorely needed left arm to supplement Franklin Morales. Not a fan of Vicente Padilla. Wondering if Mark Melancon will ever be recalled from the minors. Still waiting on Andrew Bailey.
April 11-11 5.54 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 1.95 K/BB ratio
May 15-14 3.93 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 2.16 K/BB ratio
June 15-12 3.31 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 4.17 K/BB ratio
So as you can see the pitching was abysmal in April, slightly above average in May and stellar in June. Despite the tough schedule in front of them, Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz are all healthy again for the first time in a month. So if that Big Three can pitch like they're supposed to and string together some strong starts, than this team will finally get rolling and make a second half surge similar to the one the '04 team made in the wake of the Nomar Garciaparra trade. Even so, I'm not convinced the staff has enough guns this year to make a serious postseason run, and I can't beleive Bobby Valentine says he doesn't think the team needs another starting pitcher. They needed one last Novemeber, and they still need one now. Let's see if Cherington can work some magic at the trade deadline and bring in a Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza or Wandy Rodriguez. Maybe he can spare a couple of Boston's 300 outfielders.
SP Josh Beckett (4-7, 4.43 ERA)
The problem with Beckett is that he's paid and expected to be a number one starter but the reality is that he's always pitched more like a number two. His reputation as a big game pitcher stems from his impressive postseason resume (much like Curt Schilling), but during the regular season he's not an elite hurler by any means. Beckett has just one top-five Cy Young finish to his credit, and in his eleven seasons prior to this one he's had three--2005, 2007 and 2011--when he pitched like an ace. His career ERA is 3.87 and he's never been exceptionally durable, either (remember Golfgate?). I bring this up because I think people still expect too much out of him, even though by now we know what he is; a good, sometimes great pitcher, but not somebody who can lead a staff (Lester, who's been much better and more consistent since 2008, can). But why has he regressed so much after an outstanding 2011 season, when he posted a career best 2.89 ERA and 1.03 WHIP? For starters, he really hasn't pitched as badly as his numbers suggest. Back in May I wrote about how Beckett's stats were inflated by a pair of early season shellackings. While he hasn't earned a win since May 20th, that's hardly his fault; Boston's lineup has let him down, averaging just two runs per game over his next five starts. Then there was that shaky start against the Yankees before the Break. It was a microcosm of his season in that he gets rocked early (five runs allowed in the first inning) but settles down and pitches well afterwards. There' evidence that he's been unlucky, too. His FIP is 3.69, almost perfectly in line with his career 3.68 figure, and his xFIP is 3.98, almost half a run below his ERA. His 67.1 LOB% is the second lowest of his career (well below the league average of 72 percent). His 1.20 WHIP is still quite good and leads the rotation. Still, the 32 year-old isn't quite the same pitcher he was in his prime. His fastball velocity is down to 91.8 miles per hour, two full MPH below his career average. As a result, he's throwing fewer fastballs and is relying on more cutters, a risky trade-off given that cutters can easily tail over the heart of the plate or out of the strike zone if the pitcher isn't locating them well. The diminished velocity probably explains why his K/9 rate sits at a pedestrian 6.5, two full batters beneath his 8.5 career mark coming into 2012. His line drive rate is up because he's not missing bats like he used to, but all things considered he should show marked improvement in the second half. ZiPS has him projected to go 5-3 with a 3.80 ERA the rest of the way, and that sounds about right. This afternoon he takes the hill in the rubber game against fellow big-game pitcher James Shields in Tampa Bay.
SP Jon Lester (5-6, 4.49 ERA)
Lester is supposed to be the ace of the staff, and it's safe to say the lefty didn't pitch like one during the first half. But here's the thing; despite the disappointing numbers he really hasn't been that bad. Like Beckett, Lester has been undone by two very poor outings; his April 17th start against Texas (an 18-3 drubbing) and his May 25th outing against the Rays. Both came at Fenway, a nightmare for southpaws, against great teams. It happens to the best of 'em. His 3.58 FIP and 3.61 xFIP are slightly better than his career averages. He's trimmed a full batter off his walk rate, and his 2.4 BB/9 ratio represents the best mark of his career. His 3.13 K/BB rate is the best it's been since 2009. As with Beckett, there are also signs that luck hasn't been on his side in the early going. His 66.9 strand rate is far and away the worst of his career. So is his bloated .326 BABiP, which explains why his H/9 rate has spiked from 7.8 last season to 9.8 this year. All of his other periperhals look fine, so expect some regression to the mean over the next few months. The only concern I have is that, like Beckett, his line drive rate has risen because his K/9 rate has fallen off considerably. It's dipped three seasons in a row now, plunging from an elite 10.0 in '09 to a decent 7.5 this year. Unlike Beckett, Lester's throwing fewer cutters this year and has become more of a fastball-changeup pitcher, but there's only a seven MPH difference between the two (ideally you aim for ten). He's not the Cy Young candidate many thought he would be, but he's better than this. I predict a strong turnaround from Lester in the second half. ZiPs agrees with me, as the workhorse is projected to go 7-3 with a 3.54 ERA from this point forward.
SP Clay Buchholz (8-3, 5.54 ERA)
The Sox were counting on Buchholz, who missed the entire second half last year with back problems, to re-solidify the rotation as the number three starter after Lester and Beckett. Perhaps the 27 year-old was still a little rusty after the layoff, because he endured a slump of Tim Lincecum proportions to open the season. It was tough to watch as he allowed at least five earned runs in each of his first six starts as opponents teed off on him for ten long balls and raked at a .343/.428/.618 clip. For all intents and purposes, he turned every opposing batter into Lou Gehrig. His ERA ballooned to 9.09, meaning he had more earned runs than innings pitched. Because Boston's bats backed him with incredible run support--a whopping 8.5 runs per game--he escaped April with a 3-1 record. But he couldn't escape the scrutinty of irate fans calling for his removal from the rotation, but Buchholz held on to his job by turning his season around in impressive fashion. Over his next seven starts he settled down and pitched like he did in 2010, the year he put everything together, made the All-Star team and finished sixth in the Cy Young race. Over that span he maintained a tidy 2.83 ERA, averaged nearly seven innings per start allowed just four home runs. Won all four of his June starts and was on a roll before esophagitis felled him for nearly a month, derailing his comeback. Returned from his DL stint with a strong outing against David Price yesterday afternoon, allowing just five Rays to reach base as he punched out eight and worked his way into the seventh inning. But with the Sox clinging to a 3-2 lead, Valentine yanked his starter after 87 pitches, ordered Hideki Matsui (.175/.241/.263) intentionally walked to load the bases and then watched Matt Albers surrender a pair of runs, wasting Buchholz's outing in the process I'm convinced the rocky start is behind him and have faith he'll continue to pitch the way he has over the past two months.
SP Felix Doubront (9-4, 4.41 ERA)
The 24 year-old southpaw has performed much better than expected in his first full season as a starter. He's helped stabilize the back of the rotation, the fatal flaw during last September's historic collapse. But who would have thought the guy with three career starts coming into the season would be leading the rotation in wins, ERA, ERA+, strikeouts, and K/9 at the break? His 9.1 K/9 rate is especially impressive, fifth best in the American League and better than elite hurlers such as C.C. Sabathia and Justin Verlander. But other than the strikeouts, there's not a whole lot to get excited about. in every other area he grades out as league average. The problem with Doubront is that he doesn't go deep into games. He almost always leaves after six and has completed the seventh inning just once--in a 10-2 rout of the Marlins a month ago--so his average start lasts about five and two-thirds innings. He can be wild at times and needs to be more efficient; he reached 100 pitches in just eight of his 17 starts. Was one of the few Red Sox pitchers who got roughed up in June, to the tune of a 5.83 ERA as opponents battered him for a .918 OPS. After allowing just three home runs in his first eight starts he's served up a dozen over his past nine turns. He's never thrown more than 121 innings in any professional season (minors included) so he'll probably wear down as the season progresses. Overall, as far as number four starters go he's pretty solid. Nothing special, but leaps and bounds better than John Lackey at about three percent of the price.
SP Daniel Bard (5-6, 5.24 ERA)
Following Tim Wakefield's retirement and injuries to Lackey and Matsuzaka, the Red Sox once again lacked depth in the starting rotation. Instead of spending more money on C.J. Wilson, Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson or Roy Oswalt, the team turned to their former setup man. Let's just say that didn't work out as planned. His velocity suffered, as expected, but his command totally abandoned him. It got so bad that instead of just returning the struggling Bard to the bullpen, where he belongs after thriving there for three years, the team flat-out demoted him to Pawtucket in early June to figure things out and build his confidence back up. I wanted Bard to replace Papelbon as the team's closer, and was never totally on board with the idea of converting him to a starting pitcher in the first place. There were plenty of reasons why it was a bad idea; he almost flamed out as a starter in the minors, lacked an effective third pitch and wilted down the stretch last year. The Rangers make it look easy given their success with Wilson, Alexi Ogando and Neftali Feliz, but the reality is that most pitchers can't handle the transition. Throwing 15 pitches against three or four guys in one inning is totally different than having to pace yourself, work through the whole lineup a few times and spread 100 pitches over six innings. Bard's a reliever at heart, and hopefully he can return to form when he's recalled and salvage something out of this lost season. Worst case scenario, he's never the same and becomes this team's version of Joba Chamberlain.
SP Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-3, 6.65 ERA)
Currently collecting dust on the shelf with a right upper trapezius strain, but that should come as no surprise. Dice-K has been perpetually injured these past four seasons, and when he's healthy enough to pitch he's been terrible. Now I know what Yankee fans went through with Carl Pavano, another massive waste of money. I'm going to stop myself before I go off on a red-faced rant because if you don't have anything nice to say, then you shouldn't say anything at all.
SP John Lackey (+)
Out for the season. And while you hate to pay a guy nearly 16 million bucks to spend the year rehabbing from Tommy John, it's better than paying him that much to be worth -2.1 bWAR, as he was last year. Hopefully he can use the time off to clear his head and come back strong next year.
CL Alfredo Aceves (20 saves, 4.23 ERA)
He's no Jonathan Papelbon, but for one tenth the cost he doesn't have to be. His numbers are still inflated by the first two weeks of the season; since his meltdown during the infamous "rock bottom" game against the Yankees on April 21st, he's sporting a 2.81 ERA and opponents are batting just .216/.308/.364 against him. Traditionally a middle reliever, Aceves originally seemed to be a strange choice to replace Bailey even though he was one of the team's top relievers last season. He lacks the bulldog mentality and electric arm typical of most closers, but he's adapted and has held his own. He now leads the majors in games finished and has settled into the ninth-inning role quite nicely. Most importantly, he's earned Valentine's trust. If Ace continues to pitch well throughout the rest of the summer, he deserves to keep the job if/when Bailey returns
The 'pen
What looked like a crippling weakness in the early going has transformed into one of the team's biggest strengths. Despite losing their dominant eighth and ninth inning duo from last year, the relief corps is one of the best in the majors. 36 year-old Scott Atchison (just placed on the DL--another one bites the dust) had been the team's most effective reliever, hands down, and yet at the same time was also the bullpen's unsung hero. Albers (2.27 ERA) has enjoyed another strong first half, but don't forget he had a 2.09 ERA at the end of July last year and wound up with a 4.43 ERA (9.97 from August 1st on). Based on his 4.81 career ERA and current 1.77 K/BB rate, his success is unsustainable. Looks like former first round draft pick/failed starting pitcher prospect Andrew Miller has finally found his calling as a middle reliever. He provides a sorely needed left arm to supplement Franklin Morales. Not a fan of Vicente Padilla. Wondering if Mark Melancon will ever be recalled from the minors. Still waiting on Andrew Bailey.
Tuesday, May 22, 2012
Leave Josh Beckett Alone
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| Beckett's taking more of a beating from fans and media than he is from opposing hitters |
His PR nightmare has only been compounded by a subpar start...or has it? People are under the false impression that Beckett hasn't pitched well so far, and a quick glance at his stats seem to confirm this. His 4-4 record (he's received a decision in each of his eight starts) screams pedestrian, and his 4.38 ERA is more than half a run above his 3.85 career mark. His velocity is down and his strikeout rate has dipped to 7.3/9, still solid but the lowest of his career by nearly a full batter. As it stands his 1.6 HR/9 ratio would tie his 2006 rate, when he served up 36 gopher balls in his American League debut. All troubling signs for a pitcher on the wrong side of 30 who's been very inconsistent throughout his career.
Truth be told, Beckett's been quite good. He's thrown six quality starts in his eight appearances, and in such outings he's permitted ten earned runs in 42 and one-third innings (a sparkling 2,13 ERA). Even more impressively, Beckett has been tagged for just two home runs and boasts a strong 35/12 K/BB rate. For 75 percent of the season, he's been nothing short of spectacular, but his early season statistics have been skewed by two disastrous outings. Detroit shelled him in his first outing of the season as Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Alex Avila blasted five home runs to lead the Tigers to a 10-0 blowout. Many chalked his poor performance up to early season rust, and he put Boston fans at ease by finishing the month with four consecutive quality starts to end April.
It also bears mentioning that he was the tough luck loser twice during that stretch, settling for the dreaded L next to his name in the box score despite quality starts. On April 18th at Fenway he turned in seven strong innings against the potent Texas Rangers, allowing three runs--two of which came on a Mike Napoli home run during the fourth inning. He walked just one one batter (Ian Kinsler) versus seven strikeouts, more or less matching Derek Holland but leaving on the wrong end of a 3-2 score. Franklin Morales relieved him and promptly blew up; after getting Elvis Andrus to fly out he allowed six consecutive batters to reach base and three runs to score. By the time Matt Albers came to the rescue and extinguished the fire with an inning ending double play, Texas had built a four run lead and put the game away. Boston managed to push one more run across the plate against Joe Nathan in the bottom of the ninth and had runners on the corners when Jarrod Saltalamacchia lined into a game-ending double play. Two starts later, on April 29th in Chicago, he was outdueled by Gavin Floyd. After allowing three runs (two scored on Adam Dunn's dinger) in the first, Beckett settled down and held the White Sox scoreless for the next six frames. He tossed 126 pitches, but had to give way to Scott Atchison when he loaded the bases in the bottom of the seventh (Atchison neutralized the threat by retiring Alex Rios). But Boston's bats failed to back him up with run support, as they scratched just three hits and one run off the trio of Floyd, Addison Reed and Matt Thornton.
But that's when he got in trouble off the field. He missed his next start with a lat strain and wasn't available to pitch during the 17 inning marathon against the Orioles on April 6th, a game Baltimore won when Bobby Valentine brought in Darnell McDonald to pitch after burning through seven relievers. When he was questioned about why he didn't make an appearance in the extra-inning affair, he bluntly replied, "Nobody asked me to." Fair enough, it's not his job, but isn't that the type of situation where you recognize the magnitude of the situation and step up when your team needs you? Like when Tim Wakefield volunteered for mop-up duty during Game 3 of the 2004 ALCS so Terry Francona could save his bullpen? Boston had just dropped four in a row and was in danger of getting swept by the Orioles at Fenway, so it would have been nice to salvage a hard-fought win before getting on a plane to Kansas City.
It was then revealed that Beckett had been playing golf two days before his missed start when he should have been resting. His explanation was that "I spend my off days the way I want to spend them...My off day is my off day." With the team still struggling his round of golf sparked plenty of controversy amongst the agitated Boston fan base. Perhaps Beckett just needed a wake-up call, and he got one during his return at Fenway for the series opener with Cleveland on May 10th. The Indians battered Beckett for seven runs and chased him from the game in the third inning. The Fenway Faithful, understandably disgusted with their All-Star pitcher, unleashed a torrent of boos from the grandstand as he handed the ball to Valentine and disappeared into the dugout. Since then, he's been excellent. Beckett blanked the light-hitting Mariners over seven innings in his next start (his 32nd birthday), then proceeded to fire seven and two-thirds of one-run ball in Philly on Sunday, getting the best of Cliff Lee to help Boston take the rubber game of their first interleague series.
As for Beckett's All I'll say is this; I don't care about what Mr. Beckett decides to do on his off days. He's 32 years old, a big boy. He can do whatever he wants, so long as he's not jeopardizing his healthy or performance in any way. Let's face it; if 85 year old senior citizens can handle 18 rounds without pulling something, then I think a professional athlete doesn't have too much to worry about. In all honesty I'd rather see him working on his golf swing, getting some exercise and blowing off some steam instead of hanging out with John Lackey and Jon Lester, sitting on his butt eating fried chicken, drinking beer and playing videogames in the clubhouse.
He'll make his next start this Saturday night against Jeremy Hellickson and the Tampa Bay Rays. Last time out against Tampa, on Friday the 13th back in April, he limited the Rays to five hits and one run in eight innings as the Sox crushed David Price.
Boston has another off day on Thursday, and I have a feeling Josh Beckett won't be playing golf.
Friday, November 25, 2011
What the Red Sox should be thankful for
1. John Lackey will miss the entire 2012 season. Hopefully some extended time off will allow the 33 year-old to regroup mentally and come back with a clear head for the 2013 season. He's been a colossal bust thus far in Boston, and the Sox need him to be a servicable pitcher, at the very least, over the final two years of his deal.
2. Daisuke Matsuzaka, who has given this city more headaches than starts since 2009, is entering the final year of his six year, $52 million deal.
3. The bullpen has a natural replacement for recently departed Jonathan Papelbon in Daniel Bard
4. J.D. Drew is a free-agent, so Boston no longer has to pay him $14 million a year for 65 RBI and an equal number of at-bats ending in called strike threes.
5. Josh Beckett, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Dustin Pedroia all bounced back from injury marred 2010s and seem to be fine going forward. Hopefully the same can be said for Clay Buchholz.
6. Jarrod Saltalamacchia proved he can be a solid everyday backstop and capable replacement for Captain Jason Varitek
2. Daisuke Matsuzaka, who has given this city more headaches than starts since 2009, is entering the final year of his six year, $52 million deal.
3. The bullpen has a natural replacement for recently departed Jonathan Papelbon in Daniel Bard
4. J.D. Drew is a free-agent, so Boston no longer has to pay him $14 million a year for 65 RBI and an equal number of at-bats ending in called strike threes.
5. Josh Beckett, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Dustin Pedroia all bounced back from injury marred 2010s and seem to be fine going forward. Hopefully the same can be said for Clay Buchholz.
6. Jarrod Saltalamacchia proved he can be a solid everyday backstop and capable replacement for Captain Jason Varitek
Friday, September 16, 2011
Nice Win, But Work to be Done
Time and time again in his career, Josh Beckett has come through in big games, and while the season wasn't exactly on the line tonight, things weren't looking too great for the Red Sox and they really needed a great start from their best righthanded starter.
And Beckett, true to form, did not disappoint. He held the Rays to three runs (two earned) over six innings, struck out seven against only one walk (intentional) and outdueled fellow big game pitcher James Shields to earn his thirteenth win of the season. The bullpen picked up where he left off, as Alfredo Aceves, Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon whiffed eight Tampa Bay Rays for the final nine outs and preserved a narrow 4-3 lead. The win ended a six game losing streak to their Florida nemesis and was just the team's fourth victory in its last fifteen games.
Boston just needed a win in any way, shape, or form this weekend, and they got it tonight. Didn't matter if it happened tonight, tomorrow or Sunday. Multiple wins would be nice, obviously, but one victory was a necessity. It might turn out to be the most important game of the season.
But let's not get ahead of ourselves just yet. No matter what happens this weekend, we can't guarantee Soxtober even if coolstandings.com gives Boston a 95.8 percent chance to make the playoffs. Forget about the final ten games of the regular season, when the Rays will face the Yankees seven times while the Sox get the Orioles for seven. The Yankees will be resting their regulars and aligning their rotation for the postseason, so you can guarantee they won't be making a hard push for 100 wins (they currently have 90). They're not going to roll over, but they won't be playing at full strength with Alex Rodriguez, Robinson Cano and Nick Swisher still dinged up and likely to get some breathers.
The last place Orioles are depleted, too, but they'll be playing for personal pride and to avoid losing 100 games. Their pitching is ineffective but they can still swing the bat with J.J. Hardy, Mark Reynolds and the red-hot tandem of Matt Wieters and Vladimir Guerrero in the lineup. And if you think Boston can just walk all over Baltimore, go ask the Rays how they dropped two of three in Camden Yards earlier this week. Nothing is guaranteed, especially in a playoff race.
The way Tampa's had our number the last few years I'm just hoping for a series split, which would maintain Boston's comfortable four game lead. If the Rays rebound to win their two remaining games with the Sox this weekend, then Boston's advantage will be halved to a slim two game lead with ten to play, and David Ortiz and company might go into full-fledged panic mode. The Rays will leave town in a state of euphoria, brimming with confidence and walking with swagger, while the demoralized Red Sox will be left shaking their heads and wondering how in the world this could be happening when the Wild Card race was all but over two weeks ago. While the Rays sprint to the finish line, Boston need crutches just to limp there.
Tampa Bay already got off to a great start in this do-or-die series by bashing their way to a 9-2 win last night against poor Kyle Weiland (still winless in the bigs), and the James Shields-Josh Beckett duel went back and forth before Boston squeaked out a crucial 4-3 win. Boston has a good chance to win again tomorrow on national TV (Sox on Fox) when Jon Lester takes on Jeff Niemann, but Lester struggled mightily in his last start and Sunday's matchup favors the Rays, who will be throwing David Price against the newest member of the 200 (21 of which have come at Tampa's expense) win club, Tim Wakefield.
But I'm not taking anything for granted, not when Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton and Matthew Joyce are en fuego and their starting pitchers give them a chance to win every night. Not when Boston's potent offense has been hit-or-miss lately and the bullet-riddled staff has the worst ERA in the majors so far in September and Daniel Bard suddenly can't get anybody out (although he did toss a scoreless eighth inning tonight that will hopefully get him back on track). Not when Kevin Youkilis, J.D. Drew, Jed Lowrie, Clay Buchholz, Erik Bedard, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Bobby Jenks are wounded. And certainly not when this team is finding a way to finish the season even worse than how it started.
So I don't really care about the schedule that favors the Red Sox, because the bottom line is this; the Sawx won big tonight but still need to put their foot on the gas. Otherwise the unthinkable might happen; October baseball could be played without them.
And Beckett, true to form, did not disappoint. He held the Rays to three runs (two earned) over six innings, struck out seven against only one walk (intentional) and outdueled fellow big game pitcher James Shields to earn his thirteenth win of the season. The bullpen picked up where he left off, as Alfredo Aceves, Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon whiffed eight Tampa Bay Rays for the final nine outs and preserved a narrow 4-3 lead. The win ended a six game losing streak to their Florida nemesis and was just the team's fourth victory in its last fifteen games.
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| Josh Beckett returned from a sprained ankle tonight against the Rays and stopped the bleeding |
But let's not get ahead of ourselves just yet. No matter what happens this weekend, we can't guarantee Soxtober even if coolstandings.com gives Boston a 95.8 percent chance to make the playoffs. Forget about the final ten games of the regular season, when the Rays will face the Yankees seven times while the Sox get the Orioles for seven. The Yankees will be resting their regulars and aligning their rotation for the postseason, so you can guarantee they won't be making a hard push for 100 wins (they currently have 90). They're not going to roll over, but they won't be playing at full strength with Alex Rodriguez, Robinson Cano and Nick Swisher still dinged up and likely to get some breathers.
The last place Orioles are depleted, too, but they'll be playing for personal pride and to avoid losing 100 games. Their pitching is ineffective but they can still swing the bat with J.J. Hardy, Mark Reynolds and the red-hot tandem of Matt Wieters and Vladimir Guerrero in the lineup. And if you think Boston can just walk all over Baltimore, go ask the Rays how they dropped two of three in Camden Yards earlier this week. Nothing is guaranteed, especially in a playoff race.
The way Tampa's had our number the last few years I'm just hoping for a series split, which would maintain Boston's comfortable four game lead. If the Rays rebound to win their two remaining games with the Sox this weekend, then Boston's advantage will be halved to a slim two game lead with ten to play, and David Ortiz and company might go into full-fledged panic mode. The Rays will leave town in a state of euphoria, brimming with confidence and walking with swagger, while the demoralized Red Sox will be left shaking their heads and wondering how in the world this could be happening when the Wild Card race was all but over two weeks ago. While the Rays sprint to the finish line, Boston need crutches just to limp there.
Tampa Bay already got off to a great start in this do-or-die series by bashing their way to a 9-2 win last night against poor Kyle Weiland (still winless in the bigs), and the James Shields-Josh Beckett duel went back and forth before Boston squeaked out a crucial 4-3 win. Boston has a good chance to win again tomorrow on national TV (Sox on Fox) when Jon Lester takes on Jeff Niemann, but Lester struggled mightily in his last start and Sunday's matchup favors the Rays, who will be throwing David Price against the newest member of the 200 (21 of which have come at Tampa's expense) win club, Tim Wakefield.
But I'm not taking anything for granted, not when Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton and Matthew Joyce are en fuego and their starting pitchers give them a chance to win every night. Not when Boston's potent offense has been hit-or-miss lately and the bullet-riddled staff has the worst ERA in the majors so far in September and Daniel Bard suddenly can't get anybody out (although he did toss a scoreless eighth inning tonight that will hopefully get him back on track). Not when Kevin Youkilis, J.D. Drew, Jed Lowrie, Clay Buchholz, Erik Bedard, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Bobby Jenks are wounded. And certainly not when this team is finding a way to finish the season even worse than how it started.
So I don't really care about the schedule that favors the Red Sox, because the bottom line is this; the Sawx won big tonight but still need to put their foot on the gas. Otherwise the unthinkable might happen; October baseball could be played without them.
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