Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Warriors Win, LeBron Loses

Curry and the Warriors are flying high after winning the NBA Finals (SFGate)
Three games. That's how long it took the Golden State Warriors to figure out that they were the better team, and how to start playing like it. That's how long it took the Warriors, winners of 67 regular season games, to realize what they were up against: a 53-win team (from, it must be said, the weaker conference) without two of its three best players. That's how long it took Golden State to realize that they could pretty much let LeBron James do whatever he wanted, because in the end he simply didn't have the supporting cast needed to win a seven game series against the best team in the NBA.

The tide turned in Game 4, with the Warriors staring at an improbable 2-1 series deficit and faced with a must-win scenario in Cleveland. They came out and crushed the Cavs, winning by 21--the most lopsided game of the series. Aside from the first quarter and a few moments early in the third, Cleveland was never really in the game. Golden State quickly pulled away, both in the game and in the series.

Steve Kerr starting Andre Iguodala for the first time this season in Game 4 changed the entire dynamic of the series. Not only was he a force to be reckoned with on offense, scoring as many points (22) and draining as many threes (four) as MVP teammate Stephen Curry, but he also stifled James with his defense, limiting LeBron to 20 points on 7-of-22 shooting.

Freed from the bench, Iguodala re-emerged as the two-way force he was during his 76ers days. The former point-forward led the team in minutes in Game 5, stuffing the box score with 14 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists (a team-high), and three steals (also a team-high), helping Golden State to a 104-91 victory. He was at it again in last night's series-clincher, dropping a team-high 25 points while chipping in five rebounds and assists along with two steals. Fittingly, Iggy was named Finals MVP for helping Golden State get over the hump, even if he couldn't hit a free throw to save his life.

The award just as easily could have gone to Curry, though, who averaged 26 points, 6.3 assists, and 5.2 boards per game. He never seemed to tire despite averaging over 42 minutes a night, logging just 20 fewer than LeBron over the course of the series. Curry was a true warrior, fighting his way through double teams, mesmerizing Cleveland's defense with his remarkable ball-handling skills, and coming up with big shots when he needed to. After earning his fair share of criticism for struggling with his shot early in the series, he bounced back to provide MVP-level production and lead his team to the promised land.
James did all he could, but in the end it wasn't enough (Yahoo Sports)
In reality, the true MVP of this year's NBA Finals did not play a single minute for the Warriors. Disregarding wins and losses, LeBron James was far and away the most valuable player of this series. He averaged close to 46 minutes per game, which is almost unfathomable. He outscored Curry by nearly 60 points--roughly 10 per game--while also leading both sides in rebounds and assists. James's performance was nothing short of legendary, and yet it wasn't nearly enough.

One has to wonder how the series would have played out had Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love both been healthy. At the very least, their presence would have relieved some of the massive burden placed upon LeBron's broad shoulders. The series probably would have gone seven games. Cleveland could have won.

But without them, the Cavs never stood a chance. No matter how well James played, it was never going to be enough. He's only one guy, after all, and one mortal being can only do so much. His ragtag supporting cast immediately brought to mind memories of the last and only other time Cleveland made the finals, when a 22 year-old James dragged them there in 2007, only to be squashed by the Spurs in four games. James has changed a lot since then--he has matured by eight years and is infinitely more comfortable on the game's greatest stage--but the rest of the Cavs proved just as useless.

To his credit, or perhaps to his detriment, James kept them involved throughout the entire series. He trusted them the same way he'd trusted Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in Miami, feeding them for open looks and giving them every opportunity to contribute.

Problem is, James Jones, Iman Shumpert, and Josh Smith are not Wade, Bosh, and Ray Allen. I wouldn't trust those guys with a 20 point lead during the regular season, let alone in crunch time during the freaking NBA finals.

But James seemed not to notice nor care just how incompetent his teammates were. He kept dishing them the rock, almost instinctually, often passing up good looks close to the rim to hit them for open shots on the perimeter. More often that not, they bricked those shots, which is why there won't be a Game 7 tomorrow night. James executed, but the rest of his team did not.

LeBron's selflessness has always been a double-edged sword for him, at once his greatest asset and undoing. Nobody with LeBron's size and scoring ability should be able to pass like he does, always finding his teammates with laser passes in the most unbelievable of places, like he has eyes in the back of his head. It's his Steve Nash-esque court vision that makes him a cut above the Kevin Durants and Kobe Bryants of the world. He has the eyes of a point guard in the body of a bulldozer.

It was obvious from the start, however, that Cleveland wasn't going to win this series with LeBron playing the role of facilitator. The Cavs were only going to win if James took over and averaged 40+ points a night. With his supporting cast reduced to ashes, LeBron needed to adopt the Kobe Bryant mentality for this series, the give-me-the-damn-ball-and-get-the-hell-out-my-way mindset. If he truly is the greatest player in the world, which this series proved he is, then he needed not just to play like it, but to act like it. He needed to get mean. He needed to be selfish.

LeBron may be able to do that for spurts, but he has proved incapable of doing that for prolonged stretches. He is too nice, too trusting of his teammates. He's hardwired to pass the basketball, to get it into the hands of open comrades. He shares too much. He's too generous.

It's also hard to be a killer when you run out of gas, as James and his teammates clearly did. He missed six of his last nine shot attempts last night and was a non-factor in the frantic final two minutes, when Josh Smith, of all people, nearly willed Cleveland back into the game with a barrage of unlikely threes. James, passive and exhausted, seemed to quit when his team needed him most, settling for lazy jumpers rather than attacking the hoop with his customary ferocity. He played to the score rather than the clock, and in the end it might have cost the Cavs the game.

When the chips were down and all hope seemed lost, LeBron reverted into the passive, gun-shy, scared little kid who disappears during the game's critical moments, like he's melted right into the court. There one minute, gone the next. Poof.

I'm hesitant to criticize James too much because he really gave it his all in his series. Without his heroic performances, the Cavs would've been swept. A lot of people seem to think they wouldn't have even made the playoffs without him, which I don't necessarily buy (if the Celtics and Nets could make the playoffs, then a team with two legit superstars definitely could, especially in the East) but still see their point. James single-handedly made this series interesting, even if he couldn't carry his team to the finish line. He played his heart out.

If only he'd had some help.

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Last Place Here We Come

Atlanta's Freddie Freeman (M) scores as Sandy Leon (R) looks on (Gazette Net)
The Red Sox lost again last night, the seventh time in a row. Following their 4-2 loss to the Atlanta Braves, they're now 11 games under .500 and nine games out of first. Heck, they're six out of fourth.

Once again, the culprit was Boston's anemic offense, which managed all of two runs against a Braves team that was supposed to be a doormat this year. Once again, the Red Sox struggled with runners in scoring position, going just 1-for-7 in those situations and leaving seven men on base. That explains how, despite outhitting their opponents 10-9 and putting a dozen men on base, they scored half as many runs. It didn't help that Boston bounced into three double plays, either.

Leave it to the Red Sox to lose a game where they didn't allow an extra base hit, didn't make an error, and used only three pitchers to the Braves' five.

Boston was also unable to take advantage of a decent turn by Rick Porcello, who lasted into the seventh inning and pitched well enough to keep his team in the game. The problem was, as it has been all year, is that he didn't get a lick of run support. The Sox had yet to score when Porcello departed in the seventh inning.

Even more frustrating was that the game ended with the winning run at the plate for Boston. Down to their last out and trailing 4-1, the Red Sox rallied. Pablo Sandoval smacked a ground-rule double, Mike Napoli reached on an error, and Mookie Betts singled to center to score Sandoval. That brought up Alejandro De Aza, the last hitter Red Sox fans hoped to see in such a situation given that he's barely above the Mendoza line and has driven in all of eight runs this season.

Sure enough, De Aza failed to deliver. He hit a dribbler out in front of the plate, which closer Jason Grilli gathered and fired to first to end the game.

Tim Britton, Sox beat writer for the Providence Journal, wrote that Boston's season died Friday night when the team blew a seven-run lead to the Blue Jays and lost 13-10. I'm inclined to agree with him. It can't be overstated how demoralizing losses like that are to team morale, when sure wins wind up as heart-crushing defeats. This is especially true of the Red Sox, who have struggled all season and rarely enjoy such large leads. After just being swept by Baltimore, they really needed to get back in the win column and could have used a big win to boost their spirits. Instead, they left Fenway Park that night with their heads in their hands.

I'm with Tim. Stick a fork in this team, because they're done. I know there's still 97 games left to play, which is a lot of baseball, but it's plain for all to see that this year's squad just doesn't have it. Not enough hitting, not enough defense, and definitely not enough pitching. Last place, here we come.

To win 90 games, Boston would need to go 63-34 the rest of the way--a .649 winning percentage. The Red Sox, as currently constructed, are not winning two out of three from this point forward. Even if they win 60 percent of their games going forward, they'd still only finish with 85 wins, which isn't enough to earn a trip to the postseason. The hole they've dug for themselves is simply too deep.

I believe the lineup is going to hit eventually--it's too good not to, especially as the weather warms. David Ortiz has already started turning things around, and so has Sandoval. Mike Napoli and Hanley Ramirez are capable of carrying the club when they get hot. I'd expect Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, and Blake Swihart to all get better as the season progresses and they gain more experience.

But the pitching staff just isn't good enough, certainly not good enough to carry this team into the postseason. Clay Buchholz is too inconsistent, Rick Porcello doesn't miss enough bats, and Wade Miley just flat-out sucks. Joe Kelly lacks the command and secondary stuff needed to complement his blazing fastball. Justin Masterson is simply a bust, the same way Stephen Drew was a bust last year.

So unless the Red Sox really turn things around during the next six weeks, they're going to be sellers at the trade deadline again. With this summer shaping up to be a seller's market, however, maybe that's not such a bad thing.

Monday, June 15, 2015

Toronto's Torrid Hitting Fuels Streak

Pricey free agent addition Russell Martin has been a huge success (US News)
Things were looking pretty bleak for the Toronto Blue Jays on the afternoon of June 2nd. The Jays had just been shut out for the first time this year, dropping Game 1 of a doubleheader to the Washington Nationals 2-0. The team who many thought would win the AL East this year had fallen a season-low seven games below .500, much closer to last place than first place.

Then the Blue Jays started winning, and they haven't lost since. They took the nightcap 7-3, then routed the Nats 8-0 the following day to take the series finale and the series. At the end of a week-long road trip, Toronto was just getting started.

The Blue Jays returned home from our nation's capitol and swept the red-hot Astros, winning the first two games handily before punctuating their second sweep of the year with a come-from-behind, walkoff victory. They followed that sweep with another of the Miami Marlins, which featured another thrilling comeback-walkoff.

Having climbed above .500 for the first time in a month, Toronto traveled to Boston for a three-game set at Fenway. The Jays broke out their bats, scoring 13 runs in the opener and finale--31 in all. In between Toronto ran its win-streak to double digits with a 5-4 victory in 11 innings--the team's second extra inning win of the year and first since April 18th. All three wins were exceptional, with the visitors overcoming a seven-run deficit in the opener, winning the middle game in extras, and pounding the Bosox 13-5 in the finale.

With yesterday's rout, the Blue Jays completed their third consecutive sweep, tying a franchise record with their eleventh straight victory. They've averaged an incredible eight runs per game over the course of their streak, bludgeoning opponents with the best offense in the game. Their pitching has been better as well, allowing three runs or less in seven of the eight games before falling victim to Fenway's friendly confines.

It took them two months, but the Jays have finally bloomed into a team worthy of the preseason hype. They have the majors' best run-differential and have murdered lefties like few others in the Wild Card era.

Not coincidentally, Toronto's win streak has paralleled the re-emergence of All-Star shortstop Jose Reyes, who has hit safely in all 11 of their victories. Reyes, who returned from a four-week absence on Memorial Day, has notched at least one hit in 17 of 18 games since coming off the disabled list, raising his OPS 170 points during that time. He's played a huge role in Toront's win streak, driving in 11 runs out of the leadoff spot and scoring in eight straight games.

Toronto's lineup has also benefited from the resurgence of Russell Martin, who went a month between home runs before jacking three last week, including the game-winning blast in Saturday's extra inning affair. Martin's also currently riding a six-game hit streak, while teammate Edwin Encarnacion has hit safely in seven straight. Jose Bautista, who cranked four home runs in a four-game span after managing just seven through his first 47, also appears to be finding his form after a slow start. If they hit like they have in the past, Josh Donaldson keeps hitting as he has, and Devon Travis comes back strong, Toronto's going to light up scoreboards all summer long.

It's funny that the Blue Jays are essentially the team everyone expected their rival Red Sox to be, leading the majors in runs scored (by a lot, as well as doubles, slugging, OPS, and total bases) but ranking near the bottom (third-to-last) in ERA (and home runs allowed). Toronto's won by outslugging its competition thus far, but for that to continue its position players must stay healthy and productive. That won't be easy given that Martin, Bautista, Encarnacion, Reyes, and Chris Colabello--over half the starting lineup--are all on the wrong side of 30. The pitching will have to improve eventually, because the lineup can only cover their mistakes for so long. Look for Alex Anthopoulos to seek out starting pitching help at the trade deadline--Cole Hamels would be a huge get.

In the meantime, Toronto will shoot for a franchise-record 12th straight victory tonight in Flushing behind Mark Buehrle, who's delivered a pair of strong starts during the run including his first shutout in almost two years. The Mets, who have the same record as the Jays (34-30) and currently sit atop the NL East, will counter with Noah Syndergaard, the rookie phenom who was still in diapers the last time Toronto reached the postseason. Mets fans hope Syndergaard (2.96 FIP) and Citi Field's carvernous dimensions can combine to stifle Toronto's torrid offense, but after seeing the Jays turn Fenway Park into a pinball machine I certainly wouldn't bet on it.

Saturday, June 13, 2015

The Hits Keep Coming

Last night's game featured 23 runs and 27 hits (Boston Globe)
Last night's game at Fenway Park was exactly the kind of hitting bonanza Red Sox fans expected to see plenty of this year, where Boston's juggernaut lineup scores a bunch of runs, its terrible pitching staff lets up more, and in the end the Sox lose by a football score.

With both teams sending mediocre starting pitchers to the bump and the air still warm from an 85 degree day in Boston, the conditions were ripe for a slugfest. After a five-run first inning in which Pablo Sandoval and Mookie Betts homered, the Red Sox were off and running. Toronto got one back in the top of the second on Justin Smoak's triple into the triangle, which led Betts to crash headlong into the outfield wall.

Boston appeared to put the game out of reach with Dustin Pedroia's three-run shot in the third, which increased the home team's lead to seven and drove Jays starter Drew Hutchison from the game. Of course, no lead is ever safe in Fenway Park, especially when Joe Kelly and co. are pitching.

Kelly gave those three runs back in the top of the fifth, and when he left the game after the sixth his ERA had risen to 5.45. He was still in line for the win until Matt Barnes, Junichi Tazawa, and Tommy Layne proceeded to allow nine runs in the seventh inning. Sandoval's ninth error of the season didn't help matters, and Smoak capped the monster inning with a two-run shot into the Monster seats. The inning, which began with Boston leading 8-4, ended with Boston trailing 13-8.

The Red Sox mounted a serious threat in the bottom of the eighth, scoring one to narrow the gap to four and loading the bases for Mike Napoli. Napoli, the potential tying-run, could have knotted up the game with one swing of the bat. Instead the bearded slugger struck out on three pitches, frozen by a Brett Cecil curveball right down broadway.

Boston reached double digits with Rusney Castillo's RBI double in the ninth, but it was too little, too late. Cecil fanned Pedroia to end a game in which Boston scored 10 runs, pounded out 12 hits, slugged three home runs, and still lost. Leaving nine men on base didn't help, but at least they tallied more runs last night than they did during their miserable three-game trip to Baltimore.

With their fourth loss in a row, the last-place Sox slipped eight games below .500. They'll try to snap Toronto's nine-game winning streak this afternoon behind Clay Buchholz, who had been a roll before getting roughed up by Oakland last Sunday. The Red Sox will get another chance to fatten their averages with R.A. Dickey, who owns a 5.35 ERA and 5.38 FIP, on the hill for the Jays.

But as last night proved, even if they do that won't guarantee victory.

Friday, June 12, 2015

Sox Swept, Sinking Fast

Farrell (L) and Miley pictured moments before their shouting match (Boston Herald) 
It's starting to turn into that kind of season for the Red Sox, the kind of season where they take one step forward, then two steps back. The kind of frustrating year where they're hot one week, cold the next, and ultimately end up underperforming expectations. By a lot.

Over the weekend Boston swept the Oakland A's at home. In and of itself, this was not impressive. The A's were, and still are, the only team in the American League with a worse record than the Sox. Furthermore, the Red Sox were at home, where they've actually had a winning record this year (hard to believe, I know). All three games were close, too, with Boston winning each by three runs or less.

So even though it took the Red Sox two months to earn their first sweep of the season, and they won three in a row for just the second time all year, and at the end of it they were still last in the AL East, there was hope. They were starting to hit. Their pitching had been better. Things were looking up for the Olde Towne Team, especially with a three-game set against Baltimore, with whom the Sox shared last place. With an off day for travel, Boston would be fully rested and ready to continue their recent tear.

Didn't happen. The Red Sox stumbled into Camden Yards and dropped three in a row, falling a season-worst seven games below .500. They were blanked 1-0 in the opener despite Miguel Gonzalez, the Orioles starter, leaving the game in the fifth with a strained groin, for which he was just placed on the DL. They left nine men on base and went 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position, wasting another magnificent start by rookie Eduardo Rodriguez, who gave them six shutout innings while striking out seven.

The lineup, which has struggled all season long despite the high-priced additions of Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, dropped the ball again in the middle game as Boston fell 5-2. That one was more on Rick Porcello, who allowed the Orioles to jump out to a 2-0 lead and was scored upon both times Boston scratched out a run. Porcello's pitched poorly all season with a 5.26 ERA to show for it, making the $82.5 million contract extension he received two months ago look like a mistake with each time he takes the ball.

The finale featured a similarly ugly outing from Wade Miley, who was bombed for three home runs and had more runs allowed than innings pitched in his final line for the fourth time this year (out of 12 starts). After being rightfully removed from the game, Miley proceeded to lose it on John Farrell in the dugout, as if it's somehow the manager's fault that Miley owns a 5.07 ERA on the season. Down four runs by the end of the third, the Sox rallied but ultimately came up just short, losing by one run for the second time in three days.

And with that, Boston has now lost three in a row five times this year. They've been swept three times, though this was the most inexcusable given that a) Baltimore was a last place team going into the series.and b) the Red Sox used their two best starting pitchers. They're back home tonight, where they've played decently this year, but against the red-hot Toronto Blue Jays, winners of eight in a row. The Jays have the kind of lineup that can feast off Boston's weak rotation, especially with righty mashers Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Josh Donaldson capable of launching balls over the Monster.

Tonight's game in particular has all the makings of a slugfest, what with two mediocre starting pitchers (Drew Hutchison and Joe Kelly) facing opponents that have given them serious trouble this season. Tomorrow afternoon's tilt could bring more of the same, with probable starters R.A. Dickey and Clay Buchholz a combined 5-12 on the season. The Red Sox should have the upper hand in Sunday's series finale with Rodriguez back on the bump versus Marco Estrada, and they'll likely need a strong start after the heavy workload Boston's bullpen will have to carry today and tomorrow.

Rodriguez, a 22 year-old rookie, is the only Boston starter who can be trusted right now. That says all you need to know about how this season is going for the Sox.