Showing posts with label Curtis Granderson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Curtis Granderson. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Gardner Vs. Granderson

He may not have shiny power numbers, but Gardner's still very valuable
Just when you thought the Yankees were done spending for the winter, they go out and drop $52 million on Brett Gardner to lock him up for the four seasons after this one. That's only $8 million less than the crosstown Mets paid to acquire Curtis Granderson, the man Gardner's replacing in center field.

So did the Yankees make the right call in letting Grandy go but keeping Gardner? Despite very different skillsets, they've provided nearly identical value over the past five seasons. Granderson's been worth 18.4 bWAR, and Gardner's been worth 18.1. But since Gardner was cheaper and is two and a half years younger, I think New York was wise to keep him instead of Granderson.

Especially since Gardner projects to provide more value over the life of his contract. Speed tends to age well whereas power does not, and there are (or should be) serious doubts about whether Granderson can bounce back from an injury-plagued 2013. It's possible that Granderson, a strikeout prone slugger with diminishing wheels and defense, may never be the same. He could go the way of Jason Bay.

Gardner's best comp is probably Michael Bourn, who signed a similar four year deal worth $48 million with the Cleveland Indians last year. Neither one hits for high averages or much power, but both speedsters offer elite defense, baserunning and good on-base ability. They also strike out a lot for guys with no pop:

Bourn '10-'13: 584 G, 106 2B, 32 3B, 19 HR, 195 RBI, 222 BB, 178 SB, ..275/.339/.375 (97 OPS+) 17.3 bWAR
Gardner '09-'13: 578 G, 80 2B, 31 3B, 23 HR, 161 RBI, 222 BB, 148 SB .270/.356/.387 (100 OPS+) 18.1 bWAR

Both signed their deals prior to their age 30 seasons, too. Bourn struggled in his first year of his new contract, but that could be attributed to the league-change combined with injuries that caused him to miss 32 games. Gardner's had his own injury issues--he played just 16 games in 2012 and ended last season on the Disabled List--which may explain why he stole "only" 24 bases after averaging twice that many in 2010-'11. But he was still worth better than four wins last year and should provide similar value in the coming seasons so long as he stays on the field.

Whatever Gardner does over the next half-decade, one thing's for certain: nobody can say he's under-appreciated anymore.

Saturday, December 7, 2013

Hot Stove Update: The Bronx is Burning

Granderson stayed in New York but defected to the Mets
It was a busy week in baseball for the two New York teams, both of whom did their part to stoke the Hot Stove's proverbial flame. Most notably, Jacoby Ellsbury came to town just before Robinson Cano skipped out, but there were a few other moves that went down as well.

Mets sign Curtis Granderson for four years, $60 million
I'm pretty surprised Grandy Man didn't have to settle for a one-year contract somewhere to re-establish his value after an injury-marred 2013 in which he played just 61 games and posted his worst OPS since his 2004 debut. Then again, he's just one season removed from a 43 homer campaign. Still, if I'm a Mets fan I don't love this deal. Age--he'll be 33 at the start of the contract--is a concern, but what's more troubling is how Yankee Stadium turned Granderson into an all-or-nothing hitter. In 2012 he batted .232 and fanned 195 times, whiffing in 28.5 percent of his plate appearances. The trend continued last year with his .229 batting average (a new career low) and 28.1 K%. I see more low batting averages and high strikeout rates in his future, but far fewer home runs without a short porch in right to aid him. Furthermore, he's a poor defensive center fielder who should be shifted to a corner spot.

Yankees sign Carlos Beltran for three years, $45 million
Beltran makes his return to the Big Apple after spending six and a half seasons with the Mets from 2005 through 2011. The Yankees were hot on Beltran's tail in the winter of 2005, only to see him sign with the Mets for $119 million. At the time, he was widely regarded as one of baseball's most talented players, a Gold Glove center fielder with 40/40 potential. Now he's a 36 year-old corner corner outfielder/DH with creaky knees and zero speed. He can still hit a bit, as he proved with St. Louis, and his power should translate well to Yankee Stadium. At this stage in his career he's more of a 2-3 win type of player than the 5-6 win beast he was in his prime, but that's still a significant upgrade over what Ichiro Suzuki is these days.

Yankees bring back Hiroki Kuroda for one year, $16 million
This ends the speculation that Kuroda would retire or return to Japan to pitch in the NPB. He emerged as the Yankees ace last season in what was a down year for CC Sabathia. Kuroda was tremendous for most of the season before fading down the stretch, going 0-6 with a 6.56 ERA over his final eight starts as opponents walloped him to the tune of .316/.364/.551. Was it just a bad stretch by an otherwise excellent pitcher? Or was that the beginning of the end for the soon-to-be 39 year-old? The Yankees are gambling $16 million to find out if he has anything left in the tank.

Kelly Johnson signs with Yankees for one year, $3 million
New York nabbed Johnson as an insurance policy in case Cano signed elsewhere, and good thing they did. Johnson's not an everyday second baseman anymore, not after batting .226/.307/.395 in the last three years combined, but he's still a solid platoon option against righties with decent pop (16 homers in each of the past two seasons). He can't hold a candle to Cano, but then again few players can.

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

The Tigers Win the Pennant

That was easy.

After taking four straight games from the New York Yankees, the Detroit Tigers are World Series bound and look to capture their first title since 1984. They will take on the San Francisco Giants, who rebounded from a 3-1 deficit in the NLCS and are gunning for their second championship in three years.

Detroit won on the strength of exceptional performances from their starting pitchers Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister and Anibal Sanchez, who combined to allow two earned runs in 27 and a third innings (a 0.66 ERA!). The bullpen was shaky, but aside from its Game 1 meltdown pitched quite well. ALCS MVP Delmon Young paced the offense, but hardly alone. Miguel Cabrera, Austin Jackson, Jhonny Peralta and Avisail Garcia swung hot bats, too.

The Yankees, who posted the best record in the American League this year, never even held a lead, for Steinbrenner's sake. They failed to show up. It was like Invasion of the Body Snatchers, except the aliens only stole the New York Yankees. The oldest roster in baseball looked like it had run out of gas.

The Yankees hadn't been skunked in a best-of-7 series since 1976, when the Big Red Machine cruised to their second consecutive championship by dominating Billy Martin's Yankee squad, a humiliation that prompted George Steinbrenner to dig into his pockets and sign Reggie Jackson. New York also rolled a donut in the 1963 Fall Classic against the Dodgers, when they scored four runs total off Sandy Koufax, Don Drysdale and co. Before that, you'd have to go all the way back to 1922, back when the original Yankee Stadium was still under construction, forcing the Giants and their little brothers to share the Polo Grounds.

The mighty Yankees scored all of six runs in the series, four of which were generated during their extra-inning Game 1 defeat. The bats went into hibernation mode, bearing no resemblance to the high-powered offense that set a franchise record with 245 home runs during the regular season and paced the American League in long balls, OBP, SLG, and total bases. Tigers pitching neutralized the Bronx Bombers, holding them scoreless in 33 of 36 innings and limiting their hitters to .157/.224/.264 triple slash stats.

The entire Yankee offense, sans Raul Ibanez and Ichiro Suzuki, went AWOL. Check these series numbers and try not to cringe:

Robinson Cano: 1-for-18 with no walks
Eric Chavez: 0-for-8 with four strikeouts
Brett Gardner: 0-for-8
Curtis Granderson: 0-for-11 with seven strikeouts
Russell Martin: 2-for-14 with no walks
Alex Rodriguez: 1-for-9 no walks
Nick Swisher: 3-for-12 with five strikeouts
Mark Teixeira: 3-for-15 with no RBI

Not even a healthy Derek Jeter could have turned that team around.

Culminating with an 8-1 drubbing in Game 4. New York managed just two hits, a Swisher double and Eduardo Nunez triple, as Max Scherzer silenced their bats. Detroit hammered CC Sabathia for eleven hits and six runs (five earned) , handing him the second loss of his otherwise stellar postseason track record with the Bombers. By the time Joe Girardi replaced him with Cody Eppley in the fourth inning, the game was already over.  In all, Detroit pounded out 16 hits, four of which cleared the fences,

Detroit has had New York's number in the postseason lately, ending the Yankees' season in three of the past seven playoffs. The Tigers whipped them in the 2006 ALDS, outlasted them in the division series last year and dominated them this season. But while everyone focuses on how poorly the Yankees played, what seems to be forgotten is that Detroit has a roster loaded with top shelf talent. They have the best pitcher (Justin Verlander) and hitter (Miguel Cabrera) in baseball. They have Prince Fielder, one of the game's top sluggers, and Austin Jackson, perhaps the most underrated player today. Top to bottom, the lineup can inflict damage, and the rotation is surprisingly deep.

I like their chances against San Francisco in the World Series, which starts tomorrow night with a rested Verlander on the bump.


Friday, October 19, 2012

Yankee Free Agents


There are a lot of question marks surrounding the New York Yankees these days, most of them concerning how GM Brian Cashman plans on retooling the roster this winter. After getting swept out of the ALCS for the first time in team history, the Yanks will be busy this off-season.  It seems all but certain that they will exercise the options of perennial MVP candidate Robinson Cano ($15 million) and Curtis Granderson ($13 million), who leads all players in home runs since Opening Day, 2011. However, Hiroki Kuroda, Andy Pettitte, Ichiro Suzuki, Russell Martin, Raul Ibanez, and Nick Swisher are all slated to hit free agency, and their futures with the organization are more uncertain.

Kuroda: 16-11 with 3.32 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 5.2 bWAR
This free agent signing earned his money by setting career highs in wins, starts, innings, complete games, strikeouts, and bWAR. He'll be 38 next year, but he's one of those pitchers who's only improved with age--his ERA+ has increased three years in a row. Won't command big money on the free agent market given how old he is, so he should be affordable. I think he'll return next year. It would be a mistake if New York lets him leave, especially if Michael Pineda doesn't bounce back..

Swisher: .272/.364/.473 with 3.5 bWAR
Swish has been a model of consistency during the regular season, but shrinks in October. In his 35 playoff games with the Yankees he has batted .159/.252/.302 with 36 strikeouts and just six RBI. This inability to produce in the postseason combined with his high asking price will ensure that he's playing somewhere else in 2013. Possible replacements include Josh Hamilton, B.J. Upton, Michael Bourn, or Shane Victorino.

Pettitte: 5-4 with 2.87 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 2.2 bWAR
Will the 40 year-old retire? The southpaw pitched well in the regular season and playoffs, but at his age health and durability have to be major concerns. He's averaged 102 innings per season since the start of 2010, and you can't rely on him to deliver much more than that. He still has gas left in the tank, so don't count him out.

Suzuki: .283/.307/.390 with 1.6 bWAR
Ichiro returned to form after joining the Yankees in late July by batting .322/.340/.454, right in line with his career .322/.365/.419 rates. Still, Suzuki turns 39 next Monday and is clearly in decline. There's not much use for a slap-hitting singles guy who's lost a step in the field and on the bases.

Martin: .211/.311/.403 with 1.5 bWAR
The three time All-Star was passable the last two years but has become an all-or-nothing hitter. His 21 home runs and .192 ISO were career bests last year, but he also set a career high in whiffs and batted a career worst .211. He'll be 30 next year, a dangerous age for catchers, but the Yankees may not have a choice.

Rivera: 5 saves with 2.16 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 0.4 bWAR
The all-time saves leader tore his ACL shagging fly balls during BP. He's set to turn 43 next month, but age hasn't affected his performance in the slightest. I can't envision the lifelong Yankee playing anywhere else.

Ibanez: .240/.308/.453 with 0.3 bWAR
Postseason heroics aside, Ibanez is on the wrong side of 40 and can't run, field, or hit lefties. Pass.

And as for Alex Rodriguez? He's not going anywhere. His mind is made up; he will not waive his no-trade clause because he plans on redeeming himself next year. Even if he was open to the possibility of a trade, good luck finding a team in the market for a 37 year-old third baseman with $114 million remaining on his contract, not including his home run milestone incentives which would tack on up to $30 million if he passes Barry Bonds.

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

50 Years Later; Revisiting the Summer of 1961

Last night, Yankee first baseman Mark Teixeira belted a two-run home run to left field off Jason Vargas in the first inning of what would ultimately become a 10-3 drubbing of the hapless Seattle Mariners.  It was Tex's 27th blast of the season, tying him with center fielder Curtis Granderson for team lead.  Given their lineup protection, favorable ballpark and productive second halves in 2010, both have an outside shot at 50 long balls (they're currently on pace for 44).  That would mark the first time in half a century (and just the second time ever) that two teammates joined forces to clobber 50 baseballs out of the park apiece, and it would be an especially impressive accomplishment in a season dominated by pitching.

But even if they both get red hot and launch 23 more home runs apiece over the season's final two months, their achievement still can't stack up to the magical summer of fifty years ago when JFK had just been inaugurated, freedom riders challenged Jim Crow and baseballs were flying out of Yankee Stadium. Just to give you an idea of the kind of season these guys were having, on this day in 1961, Maris had already crushed 40 homers and Mantle would blast his 39th that afternoon at the Stadium against the White Sox.

1961 marked a time of change in baseball.  The American League had just expanded, adding the Los Angeles Angels and Washington Senators (your current Texas Rangers) while tacking on eight games to the regular season schedule in order to accommodate them.  With the pitching now diluted by the addition of two replacement level staffs, offense was expected to receive a boost and did, with runs per game spiking from 4.39 to 4.53.  The M & M Boys feasted off these weaker teams; Mantle socked 16 home runs and Maris drilled 13 against the Angels and Senators.   The other Yankees joined the party, too, as the team slammed 240 home runs, a new record that quickly became a footnote to history when Maris shattered a much more significant record; Babe Ruth's hallowed mark of 60 home runs in a single season that had stood for 34 years since it was set in 1927.  It had been seriously challenged by Jimmie Foxx and Hank Greenberg, who both whacked 58 home runs during the offense-friendly Great Depression years, and before the season several pundits believed the record could be threatened again. 

Mantle himself had been the latest to put 60 in jeopardy when he cranked 52 moon shots just five years earlier, but the Yankees did not concern themselves with such bold predictions, for they came to spring training with a singular goal; winning the 1961 World Series.

New York entered the '61 season a hungry bunch, eager for another crack at the title after losing in heartbreaking fashion on light-hitting Bill Mazeroski's (career .367 slugging percetage) walk-off homer in Game 7 of the 1960 Fall Classic, a series in which they outscored the underdog Pittsburgh Pirates 55 to 27 but came home empty handed.  They returned with their roster virtually intact and were favored to run away with the league again, although the talented Detroit Tigers were expected to put up a fight.  The fiery Ralph Houk, a former Yankee scrub known as "Major," took over the managerial reigns from 70 year-old Casey Stengel and provided more stability than his inconsistent predecessor.

Roger Maris, a 26 year-old soft spoken farm boy from North Dakota, had been traded from the Kansas City Athletics after the 1959 season and took his game to another level in his first season in the Big Apple.  Using a compact swing to pull the bull into short porch in right, Maris enjoyed a torrid start to his Yankee career and finished 1960 with 39 home runs, 112 RBI and a .581 slugging percentage, the latter two figures enough to lead the league and earn him AL MVP honors over Mickey Mantle by the slimmest of margins (a three point difference--talk about a photo finish).  A complete ballplayer with a strong arm, Maris firmly established himself as one of the best all-around players in the league without requiring a season to acclimate himself to the pressure and attention that comes with playing in New York.  Baseball fans agreed 1960 seemed to be a career year for Maris and wanted to see what he could do for an encore. 

Mantle, the reigning AL home run champ fresh off his third 40 homer season in five years, enjoyed a hot beginning to his season.  Locked in as the team's cleanup hitter and perhaps trying to prove that he was still the best player in the league, the Commerce Comet jacked seven homers in the season's first two weeks and picked up the slack when Maris slumped.  Opposing pitchers began to pitch around him, though, and as a result his pace slowed to eight taters over 38 more spring games.  Once Maris started swinging a hot bat in the beginning of the summer, though, the power became contagious and Muscles ripped two dozen home runs, drove in 53 runs and triple slashed a scorching .373/.505/.880 over his next 46 games through July 26th, today's date.  The team took off and by then the boo-birds who had jeered him through his first ten seasons, five World Series championships, two MVP awards and 1956 Triple Crown season, the ones who called him "draft-dodger," "coward," and "hick" were silenced by his prodigious display of might.  Even better, he had turned his enemies in the stands and press box into full-fledged supporters by joining Maris in the thrilling home run chase.  The Yankees were on a roll, too, having won 49 of their last 72 games and on the brink of sweeping the North Siders.

Although he stumbled in the middle of August when he cracked just one home run in a two and a half week period, Mantle entered September needing eleven home runs to tie the Sultan of Swat.  He had already hit eleven in June and fourteen in July, so Mickey still had a reasonable chance of breaking the record.  After a September 10th doubleheader, a recent hot streak had Mantle sitting on a career high 53 home runs with three weeks left in the season and his chances seemed even better.  Unfortunately Mantle came down with the flu and he received a shot in his hip to try to play through it, but his hip abscessed and became infected.  After gutting it out for two weeks and falling out of the race by clearing the fences only one more time, he shut it down for the season, leaving Maris behind without his lineup protection to pursue history alone.

Maris, on the other hand, got off to a slow start and seemed to be pressing, perhaps trying to live up to his MVP status.  Yankee skipper Ralph Houk tried dropping him from fifth to seventh in the lineup to take some pressure off his struggling star, but Rajah still wasn't hitting.  After going 0-4 on May 16th, his average sat at .208 and with just three home runs, he wasn't hitting for power either.  Houk cemented him as the number three hitter (where he had been batting sporadically throughout May) ahead of Mickey, and Maris responded by swatting dingers in four consecutive games, the beginning of a ten week tear during which he launched 37 home runs, drove in 84 and slugged .784.  He even hit .305 over that 68 game stretch to pull his average up to a more respectable .279.  Naturally, he cooled off and only managed to hit one over the fences during the next two weeks, but then made up for lost time with seven in his next six games. 

By then it was the middle of August, and Roger was only a dozen short of the Babe's record while Mantle was hot on his tail in the race that had gone back and forth all summer. Fans and reporters made it clear they wanted Mickey, now suddenly deemed a "true yankee" after playing in DiMaggio's shadow throughout the 1950s, to break the record, and some even went so far as to boo Maris in his home park.  Rogers Hornsby, arguably the greatest right-handed hitter of all-time and proud owner of a .358 career lifetime batting average (second only to Ty Cobb), told the press it would be a real shame if a .270 hitter like Maris broke the Bambino's record.  Roger lacked Mantle's charisma and struggled with the scribes that surrounded his locker after every game, and before long he grew to disdain them.  The pressure mounted, the press swarmed him like flies, his hair started falling out in clumps, and his body began to wear down towards the end of a long season.  He would only hit .218 the rest of the way, but the homers kept coming; Maris hit three more in August and nine in September to tie Ruth. 

And so it came down to the final game of the season.  The Yankees, with 108 wins, had long since wrapped up the pennant race and only 23,000 fans showed up at the Stadium for a relatively meaningless afternoon game against a mediocre Boston Red Sox squad featuring 22 year old rookie Carl Yastrzemski in left field.  Yaz gloved a Maris liner, a shot that would have been an easy triple or potential inside the park home run, in  Death Valley during the first inning.  But Maris had hit the ball on the screws, and the crowd was buzzing when he dug in with one out and the bases empty in the fourth inning of a scoreless game.  24 year old Tracy Stallard, making just his fourteenth career start, threw a fastball.  Maris swung, connected, and the rest, as they say, is history.  Roger's record-breaking shot proved to be the difference, as the Yanks won 1-0 to earn their 109th victory of the season.

The Bronx Bombers would go on to pulverize the Cincinatti Reds in five games without much help from their pair of sluggers.  Mantle's hip wound opened up and blood soaked through his pinstripes in Game 2, forcing him out of the series after only six at-bats.  Maris, without the Mick's lineup protection once more, recorded just two hits (double and home run) in 23 plate appearances.  He earned his first World Series ring, though, and would bring home another MVP trophy even though Mantle had a much better all-around season; he outhit Maris by 48 points, posted an OBP 76 points higher, outslugged him by 67 points and was worth 4.7 more wins above replacement!  Yet Maris won; the voters must have been swayed by his more impressive home run and RBI totals.  The most telling statistic was that Roger Maris did not receive a single intentional walk in the season he hit 61 homers and knocked in 142 runs; pitchers and managers would rather take their chances with him than face Mantle with a man on first.  That just goes to show which bomber was more feared.

Some more food for thought; Mantle was a switch hitter, while Maris was a left-handed slugger.  Teixeira is a switch hitter, and Granderson bats lefty.  Granderson, like Maris was in '61, is in his second season in pinstripes after coming coming over from a midwestern team (Detroit Tigers in Granderson's case).

In all likelihood, neither Tex nor Grandy hits 50 this season and if anyone does, it's going to be that Jose Bautista guy again.  Both strike out a lot and can be really streaky (to be fair, the same was said about Mantle and Maris), but the return of Alex Rodriguez in two weeks should help and I think they'll both clear 40 if they stay healthy.  It will be interesting to see how they fare in the MVP race as well, since they've managed to keep New York and its shaky rotation in the division race for much of the year, although at this point Adrian Gonzalez is still the favorite and I can't imagine the award going to someone who doesn't play for the Red Sox.

I just hope they keep it up, because I have both of them (plus 40 HR candidate Mike Stanton and the aforementioned Joey Bats-talk about a loaded lineup) on my fantasy team.