Gardner Vs. Granderson

He may not have shiny power numbers, but Gardner's still very valuable

Just when you thought the Yankees were done spending for the winter, they go out and drop $52 million on Brett Gardner to lock him up for the four seasons after this one. That's only $8 million less than the crosstown Mets paid to acquire Curtis Granderson, the man Gardner's replacing in center field.

So did the Yankees make the right call in letting Grandy go but keeping Gardner? Despite very different skillsets, they've provided nearly identical value over the past five seasons. Granderson's been worth 18.4 bWAR, and Gardner's been worth 18.1. But since Gardner was cheaper and is two and a half years younger, I think New York was wise to keep him instead of Granderson.

Especially since Gardner projects to provide more value over the life of his contract. Speed tends to age well whereas power does not, and there are (or should be) serious doubts about whether Granderson can bounce back from an injury-plagued 2013. It's possible that Granderson, a strikeout prone slugger with diminishing wheels and defense, may never be the same. He could go the way of Jason Bay.

Gardner's best comp is probably Michael Bourn, who signed a similar four year deal worth $48 million with the Cleveland Indians last year. Neither one hits for high averages or much power, but both speedsters offer elite defense, baserunning and good on-base ability. They also strike out a lot for guys with no pop:

Bourn '10-'13: 584 G, 106 2B, 32 3B, 19 HR, 195 RBI, 222 BB, 178 SB, ..275/.339/.375 (97 OPS+) 17.3 bWAR
Gardner '09-'13: 578 G, 80 2B, 31 3B, 23 HR, 161 RBI, 222 BB, 148 SB .270/.356/.387 (100 OPS+) 18.1 bWAR

Both signed their deals prior to their age 30 seasons, too. Bourn struggled in his first year of his new contract, but that could be attributed to the league-change combined with injuries that caused him to miss 32 games. Gardner's had his own injury issues--he played just 16 games in 2012 and ended last season on the Disabled List--which may explain why he stole "only" 24 bases after averaging twice that many in 2010-'11. But he was still worth better than four wins last year and should provide similar value in the coming seasons so long as he stays on the field.

Whatever Gardner does over the next half-decade, one thing's for certain: nobody can say he's under-appreciated anymore.

MLB Hot Stove winners

After examing the offseason's five biggest losers yesterday, today I take a look at five teams that won the winter.

Atlanta Braves
The Braves brought in some much-needed righthanded pop in the form of the Upton brothers, who will team with Jason Heyward to form the National League's most exciting outfield. Though they failed to acquire a strong replacement for Chipper Jones (Chris Johnson is replacement level at best) and lack catching depth behind Brian McCann (Gerald Laird? pass), the Braves are primed for another playoff run in 2013.

Boston Red Sox
Boston began the offseason by firing Bobby Valentine, the man responsible for so much of the controversy and dysfunction that plagued the Red Sox last season. Ben Cherington found a good replacement in John Farrell, a former Red Sox pitching coach whom many members of the team (Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Dustin Pedroia) respect. He satisfied David Ortiz with a contract extension, then went about reshaping the roster with cheap, productive character guys. Cherington signed Mike Napoli to replace Adrian Gonzalez, Shane Victorino to man right field (then slide over to center when/if Jacoby Ellsbury leaves) and Ryan Dempster to fill Josh Beckett's void in the rotation. He also added David Ross to complement Jarrod Saltalamacchia behind the plate, imported lefty-masher Jonny Gomes and traded for All-Star closer Joel Hanrahan, thus relegating Andrew Bailey to eighth inning duties. The Sox needed a new shortstop after trading Mike Aviles and found a decent one in Stephen Drew, younger brother of J.D. Drew, who played the last five years of his career in Boston and collected $70 million for his services.  All winter long Cherington preached patience and discipline, and the mantra seems to have paid off. There's no question the Red Sox will be a better team in 2013--the only question is will they be good enough to reach the postseason for the first time in four years?

Cleveland Indians
The Tribe lost 94 games last year but got significantly better this winter. They upgraded their outfield outfield by signing Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, signed slugging corner infielder Mark Reynolds to a cheap one-year deal and traded for Trevor Bauer, who projects to be a future ace. With veteran skipper Terry Francona at the helm, Cleveland now has one of the best managers of the past decade at the reins. The Indians aren't talented enough to surpass the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central but have the pieces to move above .500 for the first time since 2007.

Seattle Mariners
Besides locking up their staff ace/face of the franchise for the rest of the decade, the M's brought in plenty of offensive firepower in the way of Michael Morse, Jason Bay, Kendrys Morales, Raul Ibanez, and Kelly Shoppach, all of whom will be the first Mariners to benefit from Safeco Field's closer fences. The starting rotation could use more depth, but King Felix is an ideal hurler to build around. The Mariners will have their hands full with the Rangers, Angels, and A's this year, but they could be sneaky-good and post a winning record in baseball's toughest division.

Toronto Blue Jays
The Jaybirds look like World Series favorites (on paper, at least) after completing two blockbuster trades to bring in Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, and reigning NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey. Not to mention, Melky Cabrera could turn out to be a massive steal for a two-year, $16 million commitment.

Bourn Settles for Cleveland

With spring training only days away and another long winter without baseball drawing to a close, Michael Bourn has found a home at last.

The most attractive free agent still on the market agreed to a four-year deal with the Cleveland Indians worth $48 million. While that figure is substantially less than the Scott Boras client expected to get when the offseason began, it includes a vesting option that could tack on a fifth year worth another $12 million if Bourn reaches 550 plate appearances in 2016. Bourn will be 33 by then, a tricky age, but should be able to reach the benchmark as long as he's a) relatively healthy and b) still batting leadoff for the Tribe.

Bourn joins Nick Swisher, who signed his own four-year deal, in Cleveland's madeover (and crowded; who will man left field--Drew Stubbs or Michael Brantley?) outfield. Gone are longtime Indians/fan favorites Grady Sizemore (free agency) and Shin-Soo Choo (traded to Seattle). Whereas Swish adds power and patience to fortify the heart of Terry Francona's lineup, Bourn brings speed and defense. A two-time Gold Glove winner and elite center fielder, Bourn has twice saved more runs with his glove than any other defender in baseball. He also uses his legs to his advantage on the basepaths, averaging 51 thefts per year since 2008 and leading the majors in steals over the past half-decade.

Though Bourn is nothing special with the bat (.704 career OPS), his combination of speed and defense at a premium position make him very valuable. According to Baseball-Reference, the two-time All-Star has been worth exactly 19 wins above replacement over the past four years. FanGraphs agrees and is even more generous, crediting him with 20.1 wins in that span, more than Josh Hamilton, Matt Kemp, and Prince Fielder.

But rather than bring Bourn back, the Atlanta Braves made a splash by opting to shell out over $75 million for B.J. Upton and trade for his little brother, Justin Upton, instead. Considering that Bourn rates as the more valuable player and Cleveland nabbed him for two-thirds the cost of Bossman Junior, I'd say the Indians scored a solid bargain. Since the going rate for a win on the open market is roughly $5 million these days, all Bourn has to do is contribute ten wins over the next four seasons, an average of 2.5 per year, for the Indians to break even. Given that he was worth six wins last year alone, I'd bank on him living up to his end of the deal.

There is an element of risk with Bourn, though; the fear is that he could be the next Carl Crawford. Most of his value is tied up in his speed, a young man's skill that diminishes with age (though Juan Pierre and Ichiro Suzuki are still going strong). Now that he's on the wrong side of 30, Bourn has already peaked and it's possible he's about to enter his decline phase. I think Bourn still has a few four-to-five win seasons left in the tank, but wouldn't be surprised to see him struggle a bit in his first year with the Tribe as he adjusts to the new league, city, and ballpark, as most free agents seem to do after signing a new contract.

But even if Bourn slumps, at least he figures to play everyday, which is more than Grady Sizemore can say.