Red Sox Rundown

Boston's ace has not lived up to his new contract so far (Over The Monster)

Got to answer a few questions about the Sox last month from fellow Baseball Blogger Alliance member Peter Schiller over at baseballreflections.com. Thanks for the shout-out Pete!

Q: How are the Red Sox’s offseason acquisitions working out so far? Any concerns?

A: Alright. Their four main acquisitions were David Price, Craig Kimbrel, Carson Smith, and Chris Young. Price has been up-and-down, but overall he’s made the rotation better. Kimbrel has been shaky at times, but for the most part has been about as good as advertised. Smith has been hurt all year, so he hasn’t made any impact. Young has been solid in left field, but John Farrell’s had to over-rely on him with alternatives Brock Holt and Blake Swihart out for extended periods of time.  Price hasn’t been himself, which is definitely a concern when you’ve got him signed to the most expensive contract ever for a pitcher, and Smith underwent Tommy John which is never a positive.

Q: Who has been the most disappointing player so far this season? Will they improve as the season goes on?

A: Gotta be Price. The Sox are paying him close to $1 million per start and roughly half of his starts have been duds. He’s running the highest ERA of his career and has struggled against weak offenses like Tampa Bay and New York. He’ll have innings where he just loses it and completely melts down, which you typically don’t see from your ace. That said, he should improve as his peripherals are excellent (he leads the league in strikeouts) and he’s gotten unlucky with balls in play and strand rate. He was a monster for Toronto in the second half last year, and if he can do that again his rough first half will be forgotten.

Q: Who has been the most surprising player so far this season? Can they sustain this pace?

A: It’s a toss-up between Jackie Bradley Jr., who’s been the team’s MVP after not being able to hit at all during first three seasons (save for one month last year), and Steven Wright, who’s emerged as a Cy Young candidate and could potentially start the All-Star Game. I guess you’d have to say Wright is more surprising given his age (31) and the fact that he almost didn’t make Boston’s rotation this year. Bradley had shown flashes of brilliance before -- so we knew he had it in him -- and he’s 26, which is a normal breakout age.  Bradley has a decent shot of keeping this up based on his minor league track record, but Wright is a knuckleballer which makes his dominance unlikely to continue.

Q: What top prospects might we see before the All Star break (What type of player are they: 5 tool player, speedster, defensive, power hitter, etc.)? What will be their impact on the team?

A: Andrew Benintendi may get some run in left field with the injuries to Holt, Swihart and Young.  He’s a 5 tool player who could help Boston down the stretch, allowing Holt and Swihart to slide back to their natural positions and allowing Farrell to use Young strictly against lefties. If the Sox don’t promote him this summer, he’ll probably get called up for a cup of coffee when rosters expand in September.

The Red Sox have arguably baseball's top prospect in Moncada (Fox Sports)

Q: What top prospects are currently being blocked by current players on the big club? Will this make them trade bait, will they switch positions or will the vet eventually be traded?

A: Yoan Moncada is Boston’s best prospect and most untouchable asset, but he’s currently blocked at second base by Dustin Pedroia. Moncada seems unlikely to be traded (unless it’s for an ace-level starter in return) and Pedroia’s not going anywhere, which means he’s going to have to change positions at some point. He could convert to an outfielder, like Mookie Betts did, or possibly play third. He can play pretty much anywhere with his athleticism, so the Sox shouldn’t have any problem finding a place for him.

Q: What is the team lacking that either wasn’t addressed in the offseason or the offseason acquisition isn’t cutting it?

A: Quality starting pitching beyond Price, who hasn’t been nearly as good as expected. They have three good starters with him, Wright, and Rick Porcello, but the back of the rotation has been a dumpster fire. It’s clear the team will need to trade for another starter or two as the deadline rolls around, which will probably require sacrificing one of their prized prospects.

Q: Are they better or worse off now than they were at the end of last season?

A: There’s no question that they’re better, although it’s important to remember that they were one of baseball’s better teams in the second half last year. Adding Price gives them the ace they’ve lacked since trading Jon Lester, while Kimbrel gives the bullpen a much-needed power arm. Losing Pablo Sandoval for the year is addition by subtraction, especially since it allows Travis Shaw to play everyday. Hanley Ramirez has proven to be a competent first baseman, which is a huge upgrade over his terrible defense in left field last year.

Q: What is your predicted outcome for the team this season? Why?

A: I expect they’ll win 88-90 games and one of the two wild cards. They’re really strong up the middle and have arguably the league’s best starting pitcher and closer, but lack of depth in the rotation will ultimately prevent them from winning 95 games and the division.

Q: What players need to go (traded, released, etc.) & why?

A: Sandoval needs to go, but there’s no way to get rid of him. His trade value’s at an all-time low, and releasing him would mean eating the next three years of his contract. The Red Sox should also part ways with catcher Ryan Hanigan, as they have two great young catchers in Swihart and Christian Vazquez. They should also try to find a way to get rid of Clay Buchholz, since he’s no longer a reliable starter and doesn’t make much sense as a bullpen option.

Poor Pedroia

Pedroia's playing well, but none of the other Red Sox are (Zimbio)

Poor Dustin Pedroia. The guy's having his best season in years, and nobody seems to notice or care. He's hitting over .300, his power has returned, and he's playing his usually stellar defense. He's All-Star worthy, the surefire MVP of a team loaded with big names like David Ortiz, Pablo Sandoval, and Hanley Ramirez.

Now he's hurt.

Pedroia sat out last night's game, a 5-2 Red Sox win, with knee soreness. That's the second time in the last three games he's been unable to suit up but just the third game he's missed all year. Remarkably, Boston won both those games, yet lost when Pedroia played through the pain Wednesday night (and went 0-for-5).

That hardly seems fair, given how competitive Pedroia is. He wants nothing more than to win, and you know Boston's recent misery just has to be killing him on the inside. He's doing everything he can, but he's just one guy on a 25 man roster. The ship is sinking despite his best efforts to bail out the water rushing in.

Hopefully he doesn't have to go on the disabled list. Hopefully he's able to get back on the field soon and start helping Boston win some ballgames, start turning this thing around. Because if he has to sit out for the next few weeks and the Red Sox keep sliding, he's going to lose his mind.

No Captain, My Captain

Pedroia belted two home runs as part of a 3-for-5 day yesterday (FoxSports)

Dustin Pedroia chafed at the possibility of becoming the next Boston Red Sox captain.

"I'm not even captain of my own house," he quipped, which is why he's setting his sights on the upcoming season instead. “I’m ready to go…If (the season) started tomorrow, I’d be good,” he told Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe back in January. “I plan on playing 162 (games this year). My body’s back. I feel strong. I’m lifting everything. Right back to normal.”

Both Pedroia and the Red Sox would like a return to normalcy after a disastrous 2014 season. Boston followed up its 2013 World Series championship by finishing last in the AL East with a 71-91 record, trading away much of its title-winning roster before season’s end. Pedroia suffered a down year as well, batting just .278/.337/.376 with seven home runs and six stolen bases before undergoing wrist surgery in September. Excited by recent high-profile additions such as Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, Pedroia expects better results from himself and the Sox in 2015.

“We’ve upgraded our offense. We’re going to be pretty deep. A lot of really good players,” Pedroia said of this year’s club. “Every year there’s always guys who step up and do different things. We’ve got a ton of guys and we’re going to need them all to accomplish what we want.”

As always, Pedroia puts the goals of his team above all else. It’s that kind of attitude that would make him a great captain, the role he seemed poised to inherit from former teammate Jason Varitek when Varitek retired three years ago. Surprisingly, Boston has not promoted its de facto captain in the meantime.

“When (Varitek) retired…we felt like the right thing to do was to ask 25 guys to lead and be captains and not just one, and Dustin certainly bought into that,” general manager Ben Cherington explained to NESN. “To me, that’s sort of still where we are. But we know when we walk into the clubhouse that a lot of eyes are on (Pedroia) and we rely on him for a lot of leadership.

“What we need is 25 guys leading, not just one. That’s what’s led us to our best success.”

It's plays like these that make Pedroia one of the best second basemen in the game today (YouTube)

Given that neither Boston’s 2004 nor 2013 World Series champion squads had captains, Cherington might have a point. In fact, there has been a noticeable dearth of Red Sox captains over the years. Only four men have held the position in the past nine decades, and just three since World War II. Many outstanding, long-tenured Red Sox were never given the title, Ted Williams chief among them. Boston once went 23 seasons without a captain, a dry spell that makes the current streak seem like a blip.

Still, it’s a good bet that the next Red Sox captain will be Pedroia—the team’s sparkplug second baseman since 2006. He’s emerged as one of the best players in baseball during that time, winning a Rookie of the Year and MVP award as well as four Gold Gloves and two World Series rings. Now 31, the four-time All-Star is entering his tenth season with the Bosox, who recently inked him to a $108million contract extension that runs through 2021. By that point Pedroia will be 38 and near the end of his career, meaning he’s all but guaranteed to retire with the only professional organization he’s ever known.

It’s hard to imagine the Red Sox not naming Pedroia captain before he hangs up his spikes, but they say they are comfortable with his role in the clubhouse and don’t feel pressed to change it.

“It doesn’t require that letter on his chest to be the captain or the leader of our team—one of them,” manager John Farrell said during January’s Red Sox Town Hall event at Foxwoods Resort Casino. “I can say this, if you put a ‘C’ on Pedey’s jersey, he’s not going to change. He plays for the Red Sox, not the ‘C’ or the name that’s on the back.”

Captain or not, Pedroia will continue to carry himself like one. He’ll keep swinging from the heels and running out grounders and diving for every ball hit in the vicinity of second base. Nobody plays harder than the plucky Pedroia—one of Boston’s best players and most respected leaders, with or without a “C” stitched to his uniform.

Boston Bludgeons Philadelphia

Pedrioa got the Red Sox off and running with his first inning blast (CBS Boston)

The Boston Red Sox started their season on the right foot yesterday, crushing the Philadelphia Phillies 8-0 on Opening Day.

The Red Sox scored all eight of their runs via the long ball, going yard five times in all. Dustin Pedroia ignited the scoring with a first inning solo shot into the left field bleachers that put Boston up 1-0. Mookie Betts, batting leadoff in his first Opening Day start, banged another solo shot in the third to double Boston's lead.

The Red Sox doubled their lead again in the fifth thanks to solo shots by Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez. Cole Hamels left after finishing the inning, having allowed four home runs in a game for the first time since April 23rd, 2010. Though Hamels allowed only five hits, four of them left the yard.

Meanwhile, Clay Buchholz was masterful in his first-ever Opening Day start, limiting the Phillies to just three hits through seven shutout innings. He carved up Philadelphia's feeble lineup, striking out nine against only one walk. The Red Sox are counting on a big comeback from their erstwhile ace, who was strafed for a 5.34 ERA last year, so yesterday's turn was certainly encouraging. It will be interesting to see how he performs against an American League team with a more formidable lineup.

The mighty Bosox weren't done scoring yet, either. With the game already well in hand, they doubled their lead one final time in the top of the ninth. After Phillies reliever Jake Diekman loaded the bases, Ramirez stepped up and lined a grand slam off the left field foul pole for his second bomb of the game. Welcome back, Hanley.

Yesterday's rout was a preview of what Boston's new-look lineup is capable of. The Red Sox are going to light up the scoreboard this year even on days like yesterday, when they didn't actually hit that well. The Sox were just 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position and got next to nothing out of everyone not named Betts, Pedroia, or Ramirez.

But that trio, which accounted for seven of Boston's nine hits including all five of their home runs and all eight of their RBI, did more than enough to propel the Sox to victory. In light of Pedroia's recent power woes, it was especially encouraging to see Pedey enjoy his first multi-homer game since September 13th, 2011. It was also good to see him get his first dinger out of the way after going homerless in each of the past two Aprils. Hopefully yesterday was a sign that he is fully healthy and can drive the ball with authority again.

The Red Sox are back at it tomorrow night with the newly-extended Rick Porcello making his Boston debut. The Phillies will counter with Aaron Harang. Expect another turkey-shoot.

Pedroia on Path to Cooperstown

Pedroia's numbers are slipping, but he's still headed for the Hall of Fame

A couple days ago I was listening to WEEI on the morning commute, and one of the talk show hosts said that Dustin Pedroia, because of his diminishing power, is not going to wind up as a Hall of Famer. While I certainly don't dispute the fact that Pedroia's pop has declined significantly over the past few years (one need only to look at his dwindling home run numbers), I disagreed with the notion that Pedroia is not a Hall of Famer.

Now, to be clear, Pedroia is not yet a Hall of Famer. That is to say if he retired tomorrow, his credentials wouldn't merit enshrinement into Cooperstown. I think he'd be regarded in the same light as Thurman Munson--a great hitter and winner at a key defensive position, but not dominant enough during his prime to compensate for his brief career the way Ralph Kiner, Sandy Koufax, and Hank Greenberg were.

(The Munson comparison is also fitting because they both won Rookie of the Year, an MVP award, made multiple All-Star teams, won multiple Gold Gloves, and had a career OPS+ of 116)

But Munson was on the Hall of Fame path before his career was tragically cut short at 32, when he still had plenty of baseball left in front of him. Pedroia is on that same path, but like Munson will be remembered as one of the best to play his position during his era, but not the best. Munson was ultimately overshadowed by Carlton Fisk and Johnny Bench, as Pedroia is and will be by Robinson Cano and Chase Utley.

And yet, Pedroia is the only American League second baseman to win MVP in the last 55 years, since Nellie Fox in 1959 (Munson was the only Junior Circuit backstop to be named MVP between Elston Howard in 1963 and Ivan Rodriguez in 1999). He's only the third to win Rookie of the Year and MVP in cosecutive seasons too, joining Cal Ripken Jr. and Ryan Howard. In this millennium he's the only second baseman to win multiple World Series with the same team. He's one of only two Red Sox player, Carl Yastrzemski being the other, to exceed 100 home runs and stolen bases, and is already the second-greatest second baseman in franchise history behind Hall of Famer Bobby Doerr. Pedroia's career is only half over, and he's already done some special things.

Besides, the diminutive second baseman was never going to make it into the Hall of Fame on his power numbers alone. He just hit his 100th home run last month off Oakland's Ryan Cook, but is on pace for only five or six after hitting just nine last year. If he's truly a single-digit home run guy going forward, then he probably wont make it to 200. He's never slugged .500 and, barring a major power resurgence, never will. As a table-setter he's never been a big RBI guy, either. He's too small to hit home runs like Ryne Sandberg or drive in runs like Jeff Kent, and not fast enough to steal bases like Joe Morgan.

No, Pedroia's going to the Hall of Fame because, like a poor man's Jackie Robinson, he does everything well. He gets lots of hits, especially doubles, has a great batting eye, hits for good averages, steals bases, and plays fantastic defense (if he didn't play for the Red Sox and wasn't pint-sized, he'd probably be like Alex Gordon or Ben Zobrist, by which I mean one of the most underrated players in baseball). As long as he stays healthy, Pedroia should have no problem reaching 2,000 hits, 500 doubles, and at least 60 bWAR (a good starting point for Hall of Fame-worthy players). And with at least seven more years in Boston after this one thanks to the contract extension he signed last summer, it wouldn't surprise anyone if he added another World Series ring or two to his collection and retire as his generation's Derek Jeter--a great team leader and a winner with good offensive numbers from a demanding defensive position.

Pedroia isn't the power hitter he used to be, but that's normal. He's going to be 31 in two months. He's still on track for 40-45 doubles, 90 or so runs, and more than five wins above replacement. Pedroia's still a great player, nearly All-Star caliber, and as long as he follows a normal aging curve he's going to the Hall of Fame.

That's no sure thing, especially given the all-out way Pedroia plays the game and the way second basemen have been known to fall apart without warning, but I feel pretty confident saying that when it's all said and done, he'll have a plaque hanging in Cooperstown.

Napoli, Ortiz Support Lackey in First Sox Win

Napoli paced the Red Sox attack with a home run and four RBI

The Boston Red Sox won their first game of the season today, beating the Baltimore Orioles 6-2 behind a strong start from John Lackey and a four-RBI night by Mike Napoli.

Lackey looked terrific in his first start of the season, giving Boston six strong innings before turning a 6-2 lead over to the bullpen. Lackey threw 68 of his 90 pitches for strikes and allowed just three hits and one walk while striking out six. He made one mistake to Nelson Cruz, who launched a game-tying two-run bomb in the fourth (this after beating the Sox with his go-ahead home run on Opening Day), but otherwise kept Baltimore's bats in check. The bullpen trio of Edward Mujica, Junichi Tazawa and Koji Uehara delivered scoreless innings to seal the win.

The Red Sox lineup broke out after scoring just once on Opening Day. Tonight they scored six runs on ten hits, putting two on the board in the third, fifth, and seventh innings. David Ortiz (fresh off a new contract extension) kicked off the scoring by ripping a two run shot over the right field fence to bring home Dustin Pedroia, who had four hits on the day. The long ball was the 432nd of Ortiz's career, breaking a tie with Orioles legend Cal Ripken Jr. for 45th place on the all-time home run list, as well as his first career hit off Orioles' starter Ubaldo Jimenez (making his Orioles debut after signing a four-year, $50 million deal).

Jimenez surrendered another two-run job in the fifth--to Mike Napoli--and like Lackey was gone after six (but, unlike Lackey, was not particularly sharp). Napoli knocked in two more with a base loaded single off reliever Ryan Webb in the seventh to plate Pedroia and Daniel Nava, doubling Boston's lead with some much-needed insurance runs. The Orioles made things mildly interesting in the bottom of the ninth, getting runners to second and third with two outs before Uehara slammed the door in a non-save situation.

The Bosox will try to take the rubber game tomorrow with Felix Doubront (11-6, 4.32 ERA last year) on the bump. Baltimore will counter with Wei-Yin Chen (7- 7, 4.07).

Why Pedroia's Worth It

Pedroia will be a fixture with Boston for the remainder of the decade

The Boston Red Sox didn't have much luck with its large investments throughout Theo Epstein's regime. Daisuke Matsuzaka gave the team just two quality seasons before breaking down. Julio Lugo and Carl Crawford were massive busts. J.D. Drew disappointed. John Lackey is just starting to earn his keep in Year 4 of his five year deal.

It was not surprising, then, that Epstein's successor, Ben Cherington, avoided such lavish commitments like the plague during his first two years on the job. He wisely refrained from throwing money at pricey free agents like Jose Reyes, Zack Greinke, and Josh Hamilton. Instead, his claim to fame was dumping more than a quarter billion dollars worth of salary on the Los Angeles Dodgers in the form of Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, and Nick Punto. When tasked with reloading his roster for 2013, he sidestepped baseball's biggest names in favor of handing out smaller, midlevel deals to Ryan Dempster, Shane Victorino, and Mike Napoli.

But now, perhaps emboldened by his club's success, Cherington felt the time was right to lock up the smallest franchise player around; Dustin Pedroia. Pedroia, who's enjoying another stellar season and just made his fourth All-Star team, was under contract through next year and had a (now guaranteed) club option for 2015. His new deal--which includes a full no-trade clause--ensures that he will remain in a Red Sox uniform through the 2021 season. It also guarantees that he'll add more than $100 million to his already sizable bank account.

It's hard to think of a player more deserving of a nine figure contract than Pedroia, who in many ways is the Red Sox equivalent of Derek Jeter. The sparkplug second baseman has been a fan favorite since 2007, when he took home AL Rookie of the Year honors and helped lead Boston to its second World Series title of the new millennium. The following year he was named the league's Most Valuable Player after leading all players in hits and doubles, propelling the defending champs to within one game of another World Series berth.

Since then, he's maintained his status as one of the game's best second baseman. A career .303 hitter with good power (only Robinson Cano has more doubles since Opening Day, 2007) and a keen batting eye (more walks than strikeouts for his career), he also boasts a pair of Gold Glove awards and four seasons with at least 20 steals. For all his physical limitations, there's nothing he can't do on the ballfield.

Because of his superior hitting, baserunning, and defense at a premium position, Pedroia is a very valuable baseball player. Even when he's hurt, as he was in 2010 when he played just 75 games and again in 2012 (when he bravely gritted through a dislocated thumb during a lost season) he provided 3.2 and 4.9 bWAR, respectively. When healthy, he puts up MVP-caliber numbers that merit his salary and then some. With Cano set to score a payday in the neighborhood of $200 million, Pedroia's contract will look like a massive bargain by comparison.

His contributions don't stop there, though. No analysis of Pedroia's value is complete without mentioning what he brings to the table off the field, namely toughness, confidence, and a winning attitude. Along with David Ortiz, he's a team leader and positive clubhouse presence who plays hard everyday. The Red Sox need not worry about their face of the franchise becoming complacent in the wake of his new financial security; his competitive drive and fiery nature would never allow it.

I think this deal is going to work out great for the Bosox, even though second basemen tend to not age well. Like Chase Utley, he's so good that that he'll still be above average even as he gets older and breaks down. My real concern is that Pedroia puts himself at risk with his all-out playing style as well as his insistence on grinding through injuries. He beats up his body, but hopefully he'll learn to tone it down a bit with age. Otherwise, he's going to learn the hard way in his 30s, when his muscles and bones become less forgiving.

Still, it's comforting to know he'll still be here eight years from now, probably as the team captain, long after Big Papi hangs up his spikes and Jacoby Ellsbury moves on. He's not going anywhere.