V is for Votto

Votto has never been more locked in (CBS Sports)

While the American League MVP race is very much alive thanks to Josh Donaldson's amazing August and Mike Trout's mediocre one, the NL award has been sewn up for months. Ever since Bryce Harper took a torch to National League pitching in May, he's merely marked time until his inevitable christening as the Senior Circuit's MVP.

Here are his numbers through yesterday:

.333/.461/.630 (195 OPS+) 31 HR 78 RBI 100 BB 107 K 267 TB 6/10 SB in 531 PA

He's not the only National Leaguer having such a superlative season, though. Take a look at Joey Votto's numbers, also through yesterday:

.315/.458/.563 (179 OPS+) 26 HR 78 RBI 116 BB 101 K 252 TB 8/11 SB in 568 PA

Obviously Harper's been a little better, which also comes across in his superior bWAR total (he has eight to Votto's 6.5). But those numbers are awfully close--they even have the same number of hits (141).

The difference will be much greater when MVP votes are tabulated next month. While Harper is expected to walk away with the award, Votto will be lucky to get even one first-place vote. As great as his season has been, nobody's giving him the nod over Harper or Zack Greinke given how poorly his team has played compared to theirs.

Such is the curse of being an outstanding player on a terrible team. Unless you're a historically-great slugging shortstop, a la Ernie Banks or Alex Rodriguez, your chances of winning MVP are about as good as the Phillies' odds of winning the World Series this year.

Because he plays for an often-mediocre small market team, Votto is used to such snubs. Only once has he ever finished higher than sixth in an MVP race (when he won in 2010), and he couldn't even muster a hometown All-Star selection this year with Cincinnati playing host (Todd Frazier went instead). Even though he's been one of the league's three best players based on WAR and common sense, my guess is that he'll finish outside the top-five again as writers opt for the likes of Buster Posey, Andrew McCutchen, and Anthony Rizzo (all younger, flashier, and playoff-bound).

Between Cincinnati's suckiness and his hot and cold first half, the soft-spoken Canadian flew under the radar for much of the summer. As recently as six weeks ago, nobody was talking about him as a viable MVP candidate. In fact, nobody was talking about him much at all.

Boy, how that's changed. Based on the recent batch of articles lauding his batting excellence, however (more on that in a moment), people are only now just realizing what an incredible season Votto's having. Meanwhile, Harper's hot start announced his leap to superstardom, and he's been riding the wave ever since. Harper's held baseball's attention all summer long, while Votto's showing up just in time for Labor Day.

The four-time All-Star might be late to the party, but he sure knows how to make an entrace! While Harper has more or less plateaued since his monster May, Votto's gone bananas since the All-Star Break. His second half slash line is an otherworldly .399/.581/.739, elevating his seasonal numbers into Harper's stratosphere (see above). It's those kind of numbers that got people talking about Votto. Finally.

The Ted Williams comparisons, while a bit exaggerated, are nevertheless fitting (Harper earned the same comparisons earlier this year). Votto, like Williams, has impeccable plate discipline, hits for high averages, and is blessed with tremendous power. Also like Williams, Votto has been subjected to endless criticism for being too selective, for refusing to alter his approach with runners on base (hence the low RBI totals). His gaudy stats are less impressive, the critics argue, because he doesn't help his team win.

It's easy to say that now because the Reds aren't winning, though they have made three postseason appearances during Votto's nine seasons. It's just bad timing that the finest campaign of his career has coincided with Cincinnati's worst. In a year where everyone seems to have a fighting chance at a playoff spot, the Reds have fallen a whopping 31.5 games behind the Cardinals. Of all the last place teams, they are in last by the most extreme margin.

As if to prove Votto's performance and the results of his team are mutually exclusive, the Reds have only gotten worse as their first baseman's caught fire. They cratered in August after trading Johnny Cueto, managing an 8-21 record last month. Imagine how much worse they'd have been without Votto's 1.140 OPS in August.

So with Cincy playing out the string, all Votto can do is ride out this scorching hot streak as long as he can. It won't win him his second MVP award, but at the very least it will keep him in the discussion. It's just crazy one of the best pure hitters in the game had to have a run like this to get noticed.

Mesoraco Move Makes Sense

Mesoraco was an All-Star and an elite hitter in 2014 (Fantasy Baseball Dugout)

The Cincinnati Reds haven't done much to applaud this offseason, mainly because they haven't done much at all. Cincy made an outstanding move yesterday, however, locking up catcher Devin Mesoraco with a four-year, $28 million extension that will cover his three arbitration seasons and first year of free agency.

Given that teams are paying roughly $6 million for a win on the open market these days and accounting for inflation, Mesoraco will only need to be worth about one win above replacement per year over the life of the contract to earn his keep. Seeing as how he was worth around 4.5 WAR last year alone, he should have no problem accruing a similar value over the next four years combined (which, by the way, also happen to cover the prime ages of 27-30).

Unless, of course, Mesoraco turns out to be a massive fluke, but I don't think he is (neither does ESPN's David Schoenfield). One might question last year's 25 home runs and .893 OPS (149 OPS+) in light of his 16 home runs and .641 OPS (74 OPS+) from 2011-2013, but I wouldn't. I see Mesoraco's breakout as a product of age (he was 26 last year) and increased experience (he had just 589 major league plate appearances before last year). Catchers also tend to bloom later than other position players, not that there's anything out of the ordinary about a 26 year-old putting it all together.

As for the how/why behind Mesoraco's breakthrough, Jeff Sullivan over at FanGraphs provides a detailed explanation. From what I can see, the Reds' receiver enjoyed a huge boost in BABiP, which at .309 is only 10 points higher than the league average but represents a mammoth improvement over his career average. That was strange to see, considering that a) his line drive rate remained about the same as 2013, b) he hit more fly balls than ground balls last year, and c) he's slow as molasses. Perhaps last year was mere regression to the mean after three straight years of horrendous luck on batted balls, but a .309 BABiP just doesn't jibe with Mesoraco's 2014 hit distribution. Accordingly, I'd project him to be a .250 hitter going forward rather than the .273 batter he was last year.

And what about the power? Mesoraco can hit .250 all he wants if he keeps hammering 25 balls out of the yard every year, something only Brian McCann and Wilin Rosario have proven to be capable of doing among the current crop of backstops. Given the large increases in his strikeout and fly ball rate, Mesoraco appears to have sold out for the long ball by lengthening his swing, which certainly worked for him last year (and should continue to in Great American Ball Park). That said, in 2014 his fly balls left the yard about twice as often as they had in the past and more frequently than the league average, which leads me to believe he's due for a bit of regression in this area. Not much, but enough to cap him at roughly 20 big flies rather than 25 or 30.

I guess this is all a long-winded way of saying that I think Mesoraco's true talent level is probably closer to what he did during the second half last year. He was a monster in the first half, doing his best Mike Piazza impression by batting .320/.387/.667 through June 24th. After that, natural regression combined with pitcher adjustments limited him to .244/.342/.449 the rest of the way. Those are still terrific numbers for a catcher in today's offense-challenged times, and I'll readily admit that Mesoraco could make his own adjustments this year. It's just highly unlikely he'll be as good as he was last year, if only because he was so exceptionally good last year.

Then again, he doesn't have to be. If he's only 75-80 percent of the player he was last year, he's still an awesome hitter. And if last year does turn out to be a fluke, and he's only a so-so hitter from this point onward, then he'll still comfortably exceed one WAR per year so long as he's healthy. The Reds aren't banking on four more All-Star seasons from Mesoraco; they're merely paying him to be an everyday catcher. If his bat turns out to be legit, then he'll wind up being an incredible bargain, but he'll still be one even if it doesn't.

Mesoraco's Monster Breakout

Though inconsistent, Mesoraco has enjoyed a tremendous season (RantSports)

The Reds were swept in Baltimore yesterday, falling to the Orioles 9-7 to wrap up an ugly road trip where Cincinnati lost all but one of its six games. It's been an ugly summer for the Reds, who were very much in contention through the All-Star Break but have sputtered since, losing 30 of 45 in the second half as injuries to Joey Votto, Mat Latos and Homer Bailey took their toll.

One positive takeaway from this season, however, is that Cincinnati appears to have developed an All-Star caliber catcher. 26 year-old Devin Mesoraco's been a revelation behind the plate, emerging as one of the game's most dangerous offensive catchers in his fourth big league season. In the wake of yesterday's 4-for-4 performance, he's now batting an eye-popping .286/.365/.542 (153 OPS+) on the year with 21 home runs--most among everyday catchers. His 69 RBI rank third behind Buster Posey and Miguel Montero, both of whom have significant advantages in playing time. In the National League only Giancarlo Stanton has a superior AB/HR ratio. If the Reds weren't so helpless out of the race, he'd make a pretty good MVP candidate.

It's not unusual to see catchers break out later than position players at other positions, but Mesoraco's transformation has been truly stunning. He was a nothing before this year, a career .225 hitter with 16 home runs and -0.5 bWAR to his name. Now he's one of the best hitters in baseball. Out of all this year's biggest breakthroughs (Charlie Blackmon, Corey Dickerson, Josh Harrison, Brock Holt), none of shined brighter than Mesoraco.

The only issue with Mesoraco (besides subpar baserunning, but good luck finding a catcher who runs well) is his incredible streakiness. All year long, it seems, has been alternating hot and cold streaks for the Reds' backstop, who began the year on fire. He was hitting .500/.541/.870 through May 18th, only to post a .521 OPS with 23 strikeouts over his next 21 games. That was followed by a torrid three-week stretch ending on the Fourth of July where he blasted six home runs and OPS'ed 1.287. He leveled off through the rest of July, then hit the skids in August, batting a measly .228/.340/.354 with just two home runs.

September should bring better results for Mesoraco, and by the looks of things yesterdat, it already has.

Put Pinson in Cooperstown?

A classic borderline Hall of Famer, does Pinson make the cut?

At the conclusion of the 1967 baseball season, it must have seemed almost certain that Vada Pinson was destined for Cooperstown. The 29 year-old centerfielder was coming off a run of nine seasons in which he led baseball in games, plate appearances, hits, doubles, and triples. In addition to batting a combined .300/.343/.478 over that span, he'd also swatted 180 home runs, stolen 202 bases, and scored 898 runs. To that point, his most similar batter was Al Kaline, a first ballot Hall of Famer.

No one could have known it at the time, but Pinson's days as one of baseball's best all-around players, a 20/20 centerfielder who batted close to .300, were over. He'd have one more good year in 1971 with the Cleveland Indians, the only season of his final eight in which he slugged better than .385, hit more than 11 home runs, or posted an OPS above .700. Pinson played eight more years and over 1,000 more games, but would be worth a mere 7.7 bWAR, meaning he was essentially replacement level during that time.

That he was so ordinary in the second half of his career, especially during seasons that could still be considered peak years, is hard to reconcile given how good Pinson was at such a young age. Few players have ever been as good as Pinson was at 20, when he batted .316 with 205 hits, 20 long balls, 21 steals, and led the major leagues with 131 runs and 47 doubles (he is one of only 13 players to total at least five fWAR in their age 20 season). Few have been as good as he was at 22, when he batted .343--still the highest average by a 22 year-old since World War II-- paced the majors with 208 hits and was worth 7.5 wins above replacement. He also won his only Gold Glove and had his highest finish in the MVP voting (third, behind teammate Frank Robinson and Orlando Cepeda) that year.

Those represent Pinson's greatest seasons, but he remained a great player through most of his 20s. From ages 20 through 28 he maintained a 120 OPS+ and almost never missed a game, which combined with his solid performance in center and on the bases made him worth 46.3 bWAR. He averaged 100 runs, 191 hits, 34 doubles, 10 triples, 20 homers, 84 RBI, 22 steals, 305 total bases, and 5.1 bWAR per year. With such a fast start, Pinson should have been a lock for 3,000 hits, close to 300 homers and 300 steals, and a spot in the Hall of Fame.

Pinson's decline began in 1968, the Year of the Pitcher, and Pinson's numbers declined along with everyone else's. He also missed time with injuries, which may have contributed to his down season as well. After the season he was traded to St. Louis for Wayne Granger and Bobby Tolan. After spending his first 11 seasons in a Reds uniform, Pinson became something of a journeyman, never sticking anywhere for more than two years after leaving the Reds. He lasted just one season in St. Louis, as he missed more time and his numbers continued to decline. 1969 saw him post then-career lows in many categories, making him the weakest link in a phenomenal outfield that included Curt Flood and Lou Brock.

Following a five-player trade to the Indians he rebounded in 1970, smashing a career-high 24 home runs in his American League debut. But his numbers declined again in 1971 and he was traded to the Angels for a minor leaguer (Barry Raziano) and cash. He was solid in 1972 but mediocre in '73, so he was traded one final time; to the Kansas City Royals. Decent in 1974, Pinson was miserable in 1975 and was flat-out released that winter. He signed on with the Milwaukee Brewers a month later, but failed to stick with the big league club and was released in April, ending his major league career at the age of 37. He would coach for nearly 20 years afterwards before passing away much too soon at 57 in 1995.

Are Pinson's accomplishments Hall of Fame worthy? One could certainly make the case. He had a fantastic peak, worth 40 wins above replacement and 22.1 wins above average from 1959 through 1965, when he was the seventh most valuable player in baseball and led both leagues in hits, doubles, and triples. During this period he scored more runs than everyone except Hank Aaron and Willie Mays, stole more bases than everyone except Maury Wills and Luis Aparicio, and batted .303/.349/.487--24 percent better than average per OPS+. If one expands the timeframe to 1969, a span of 11 season, Pinson still rates as the eighth-best position player in the National League, barely behind Frank Robinson at number seven. If you want to make a compelling case for Pinson, noting that he was one of the NL's ten-best non-pitchers for more than a decade, during a time when the sport was overflowing with talent, is a great place to start.

Pinson also had longevity. Pinson played 18 seasons (only one of which he failed to play 100 games) and nearly 2,500 baseball games. His durability helped him accumulate almost 10,500 plate appearances, in which he compiled 2,757 hits, close to 500 doubles, and more than 250 home runs and 300 steals. He ranks inside the top-100 all-time in runs, hits, total bases, doubles, triples, and extra base hits. His counting numbers are very good, and if those aren't Hall of Fame numbers, they're very close.

It's also important to remember that like all great offensive stars of the 1960s, Pinson was undoubtedly hurt by the era in which he played. Neutralizing his offensive numbers lifts his career OPS by 18 points and makes his counting numbers more Hall of Fame worthy: 1,457 runs, nearly 2,900 hits, and more than 500 doubles.

Pinson played like a Hall of Famer at his best, and with such a fast start should have been a Hall of Famer. He certainly played like one for many years.

So why is Pinson not in the Hall of Fame? He was unfortunate to have his peak overlap with two of the greatest center fielders of all-time, Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle, to whom he could not compare (then again, Duke Snider showed there's no shame in finishing third to those two). The National League also enjoyed an abundance of talent in the 1960s, which explains why Pinson was an All-Star in only two of his 18 seasons and fared poorly in MVP voting, finishing better than tenth only once. Even on his own team he was overshadowed, playing Robin to Frank Robinson's Batman. He's also hurt by the fact that in his lone postseason appearance, the Reds fell in five games to the mighty Yankees led by Mantle, Roger Maris, and Whitey Ford. Pinson failed to distinguish himself, batting below .100 with no runs or RBI in his only Fall Classic.

One of the great all-around players who has been tragically underrated, Pinson did everything well but nothing spectacularly well. He had good power, topping 20 home runs seven times and reaching double digits in 12 seasons, but never hit even 25 home runs in any season. In the year that Maris shattered Babe Ruth's single season home run mark, for instance, Pinson's 16 dingers paled in comparison. Pinson was fast and stole lots of bases, but topped 30 only once and never stood out the way Maury Wills and Lou Brock did. He was a fine defender in his early years but only won one Gold Glove (the same can be said for Mantle). He hit .299 through the first ten years of his career but only once seriously competed for a batting title.

If Pinson was unappreciated during his day, he is even less appreciated by today's sabermetric-oriented community. Pinson rarely walked, barely eclipsing 500 unintentional walks for his career, and so his .327 career OBP is poor by Cooperstown standards (but still better than Andre Dawson's!). His .442 career slugging mark ranks 487th all-time, just a hair better than Mark Grace's. His 111 OPS+ is nothing special, ranking 632nd all-time and tied with the likes of Carney Lansford, Carlos Guillen, Julio Franco, and Jermaine Dye.

He wasn't good enough defensively or on the bases to compensate for a bat that was only 11 percent better than average.With 54.1 career bWAR, Pinson's still a few solid seasons short of the Hall. Had he just had one or two more monster years like his 1959/1961/1963, or merely even maintained his 1966-67 production through '68 and '69, he'd have a much stronger case. Had he been able to hang around a few more years, he probably could have reached 3,000 hits or come close enough to punch his ticket to Cooperstown.

As it is, according to most available metrics, Pinson is not a Hall of Famer. WAR says he was one of his league's ten-best players only twice--in 1959 (ninth) and 1961 (fifth). He was the best player on his team once, in 1963. His Black Ink and Gray Ink scores both fall short, as does his Hall of Fame monitor score. He comes up short by Hall of Fame standards, JAWs, and the Hall of Stats Hall Rating as well. For a long-time he had the most hits of any player outside the Hall of Fame, but someone has to hold that title. It's also telling that Pinson never came close to election, polling under five percent his first four years on the ballot and peaking at 15.7 percent in 1988. He was on the ballot for 15 years, and the writers never seriously considered him.

Furthermore, only two of his ten most similar batters are enshrined, and only one in the top seven. That would be Roberto Clemente, Pinson's most similar batter from ages 32 throug 35. The other is Zack Wheat, who was inducted by the Veteran's Committee, which is now Pinson's only chance. Pinson's closest comps--Steve Finley, Johnny Damon, Clemente, Al Oliver, and Willie Davis, were all great players but only Clemente was Cooperstown-worthy. The rest must merely settle for the Hall of Very Good.

JAWS rates him as the 17th best centerfielder of all-time, sandwiched between non Hall-of-Famers Jim Wynn and Cesar Cedeno. Though Pinson rates better than 9 of the 18 centerfielders already enshrined at the position, almost all of whom had short careers (Kirby Puckett, Earl Averill, Larry Doby, Hack Wilson). His JAWS score is considerably below the established standard at the position, behind Carlos Beltran, Andruw Jones, and Kenny Lofton and barely better than those of Chet Lemon, Fred Lynn, and Dale Murphy, and Bernie Williams. His triple slash stats and home run/stolen base totals are essentially Mike Cameron's.

So in the end, as much as I want to believe that Pinson was Hall of Fame worthy, I think he falls just short. He either needed a few more good seasons or needed to be more dominant during his prime, with 30/30 seasons rather than 20/20 and an MVP award or two. And without Reggie Jackson-esque postseason heroics or a distinguished managerial career, he's just too similar to Murphy, Steve Garvey, Dave Parker, and a lot of other guys who didn't quite make it to Cooperstown's doorstep. I think the case against Pinson is stronger than the case for him, and that's why I'm saying no.

Vada Damon or Johnny Pinson?

Pinson (left) pictured with Reds teammates Gus Bell and Frank Robinson

While researching an upcoming post about Vada Pinson's Hall of Fame case, I was astonished to discover how much his career resembled Johnny Damon's. They compiled remarkably similar numbers in their major league careers, both of which lasted 18 seasons:

Pinson:  2,469 G, 9,645 AB, 2,757 H, 485 2B, 127 3B, 256 HR, 1,169 RBI, 4,264 TB, 54.1 bWAR
Damon: 2,490 G, 9,736 AB, 2,769 H, 522 2B, 109 3B, 235 HR, 1,139 RBI, 4,214 TB, 56 bWAR

Then there are their batting lines, which mirror each other almost perfectly. Pinson batted .286/.327/.442, good for a .769 OPS and 111 OPS+. Damon batted .284/.352/.433, compiling a .785 OPS and 104 OPS+. Pinson was worth 54.7 oWAR, less than one win behind Damon's 55.4 oWAR. FanGraphs also has their career offensive values nearly even, with scores of 144.4 for Pinson and 131.7 for Damon.

Here are some more similarities:

• Both were talented all-around centerfielders who threw lefthanded and batted from the left side.
• Both wore uniforms that were red and white. They also donned Pinstripes. 
• Both spent time with the Cleveland Indians and the Kansas City Royals. They also played for an American League team based in California; Pinson with the Angels and Damon with the A's.
• Both played partial seasons in their rookie years, then became regulars in their second seasons.
• Both were exceptionally durable. Damon played at least 140 games in 16 straight seasons, while Pinson eclipsed 130 in 14 consecutive seasons.

• Both had a dozen seasons with double digit home run totals, topping out at 24. Though they had good power, they were destined to be overshadowed by slugging teammates such as Frank Robinson, Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, and Alex Rodriguez.
• Both had one season with more than 40 doubles.
• Both were fast runners and great basestealers, with Damon swiping over 400 and Pinson exceeding 300. Damon had 10 seasons with at least 20 steals, Pinson had nine. Pinson was caught 122 times to Damon's 103.
• Neither walked all that much, and so neither one attained an OBP higher than .390 in any season.
• Pinson was punked 54 times, Damon was hit by 50 pitches. 
• Damon dropped 57 sacrifice hits, Pinson laid down 52. Pinson had 78 sacrifice flies, Damon had 71.
• Both players led the major leagues in runs one time each; Pinson with 131 in 1959 and Damon with 136 in 2000 (narrowly beating out Alex Rodriguez's 134). Since both spent the bulk of their careers batting at or near the top of the order, they scored lots of runs (1,365 for Pinson, 1,668 for Damon).
• Pinson drew MVP votes five times, Damon four. 
• Damon batted better than .300 five times, Pinson four.
• Pinson had an OPS+ over 100 12 times, Damon did so 11 times.
• Both were fine defenders in their early years but ultimately had negative defensive value over the course of their careers.
• Neither one ever struck out 100 times in any season, but both had several close calls (three seasons with 90+ K's apiece). Pinson fanned 1,196 times, whereas Damon whiffed 1,257 times.

Not surprisingly, Damon rates as Pinson's second-most similar player (after Steve Finley), and Pinson is Damon's closest comp. In my mind Pinson's power edge made him a better player at their respective peaks, and even though Damon did it longer I'd still take Pinson by a nose. Pinson at his best was comparable to Andrew McCutchen or Roberto Clemente: a legit MVP candidate and hit third in Cincinatti's loaded lineup. In his prime he was better than Damon, who was more of a complementary player and table setter. 

But to Damon's credit, few players have been as steady or consistently good as he was, and that counts for something too.

Damon won a World Series and established his career high in home runs with NY

Red Sox Reach .500

Uehara (right) sealed the win with a perfect ninth inning

For the first time in over a month, the Red Sox don't have a losing record. They evened their record at .500 (17-17) with last night's come-from-behind 4-3 win over the Cincinnati Reds.

The visiting Reds jumped out to an early lead, scoring two in the top of the third on a rare home run into the bullpen from Skip Schumaker, his 26th career blast and first of the season. Mike Leake held Boston scoreless until the sixth, when the Sox struck back to knot the score at two. David Ortiz singled home Jonathan Herrera and Mike Napoli followed with an opposite field double into the corner, plating Shane Victorino and sending Papi to third. Despite having two runners in scoring position with one out, Boston was unable to take the lead.

Cincinnati re-took the lead in the seventh, driving Jake Peavy from the game by loading the bases with nobody out. Chris Capuano induced a run-scoring groundout from Roger Bernadina before giving way to Burke Badenhop, who neutralized the still-bases loaded threat and escape the inning without further damage.

That proved crucial when the Red Sox rallied in the bottom of the eighth. With Leake finally out of the game, Boston got to Cincy's bullpen. Following an Ortiz strikeout, Napoli and Jonny Gomes worked one-out walks, then A.J. Pierzynski drove home Napoli with a game-tying ground-rule double. After J.J. Hoover intentionally walked Jackie Bradley, Jr. to load the bases and set up a potential force out at the plate/inning-ending double play, the slumping Will Middlebrooks ripped a single up the middle, past a diving Zack Cozart to score Gomes and give Boston the lead.

With the bases loaded and only one out, the Red Sox were poised to grab some insurance runs, but once again failed to get a big hit with men on base. Sean Marshall came on in relief and fanned pinch-hitter Mike Carp and Dustin Pedroia (Pedey's fourth whiff of the game) to end the frame.

No matter, for Koji Uehara came in and nailed down the save--his eighth of the season--by retiring Todd Frazier, Bryan Pena and Ryan Ludwick in order, all with K's. Koji now his 22 strikeouts (against just three walks) in 14.2 innings.

After taking both games of their short two-game interleague series with the Reds, Boston gets the day off today to travel to Texas. The Sox send a struggling Clay Buchholz to the mound as try to get over .500 for the first time since April 3rd, but to do so they'll have to get the best of Yu Darvish.

Bailey Makes Bank

Bailey has good reason to celebrate, but the Reds don't (CBS)

The Cincinnati Reds avoided arbitration with Homer Bailey by inking him to a six-year, $105 million extension that includes a mutual option for a seventh year at $25 million with a $5 million buyout. It's more than twice what Ubaldo Jimenez just got and not far off Freddie Freeman's giant contract extension with the Braves.

That feels like way too much money for a pitcher of Bailey's ilk, which is to say: not an ace. While Bailey's been pretty good over the last two seasons, his body of work does not seem worthy of a nine-figure contract. Here's a pitcher with a 49-45 career record and a below average ERA of 4.25. He's been worth just six wins above replacement in his seven year career and has never led the league in anything besides starts, which he did in 2012. The Reds apparently believe Bailey can improve on those numbers, even though he turns 28 in a few months and probably won't get much better, if at all.

Even after narrowing our focus to the two most recent seasons, Bailey still hasn't been anything exceptional. He's only the 29th most valuable pitcher over that span according to FanGraphs, with the 28th best FIP and 23rd best K/BB ratio. Bailey's never won 15 games, struck out 200 batters, completed 210 innings, posted an ERA below 3.49 or been worth four wins in any of his seven seasons. 

$100 million contracts are typically reserved for the game's best position players and most dominant starting pitchers, and Bailey is neither of those. He's been dominant at times, as he does have a pair of no-hitters on his resume--one in 2012 and another in 2013--but even those don't look so impressive when you dig a little deeper. For starters, both teams wound up with losing records, so his competition wasn't very stiff to begin with.

Anyways, in 2012 he no-hit a Pirates team that struck out more than any National League team except for the Astros and, not surprisingly, ranked third-to-last among NL teams in hits, batting average, and OBP. Plus he had the good fortune of facing them in late September, when they were crashing and burning and some of their best hitters, namely Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez and Garrett Jones, were slumping. 

Last summer, he no-hit the defending champion San Francisco Giants, which would have been more impressive if they didn't lose 86 games and trot out the Senior Circuit's sixth-worst offense. Nobody on that team batted .300 and just one player, Hunter Pence, exceeded 18 home runs and 80 RBI. Hardly Murderer's Row.

So yeah, $105 million (possibly $130 million, which would amount to Johan Santana/Felix Hernandez money) is an absurd amount of money to reward a player that has never received MVP or Cy Young votes and has never been named to an All-Star team (even if he is the only Red to throw a no-hitter in the last quarter century). Bailey's good and durable, which has value, but not enough to merit such a lavish commitment. I can't help but think the Reds felt urged to spend after doing next to nothing this winter when they're only a handful of moves away from giving the Cardinals a run for their money in the NL Central. 

Shelling out big bucks for starting pitching is usually a pretty good idea. But in this case, Cincinnati spent big on the wrong guy.

Votto Returns

With Votto back in the heart of the order, the Reds should keep on rolling

Joey Votto, who hadn't played since July 15th after shredding his meniscus, returned to action in yesterday's game against the Philadelphia Phillies.  While Cincinatti went on to lose, 6-2, their All-Star first baseman didn't look rusty at all.  In his first at-bat he slapped an opposite field single off two-time Cy Young award winner Roy Halladay.  Votto finished the game 2-for-3 with a walk, bumping his season batting line to a Ted Williams-esque .346/.468/.605.

Despite losing the 2010 NL MVP and best hitter in baseball for nearly two months, the red-hot Reds still managed to go 33-16 in his absence as they ran away with the NL Central.  Apparently, they didn't miss him too much.  The lineup, led by Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, Ryan Ludwick, and Todd Frazier, continued to churn out runs, averaging nearly five per game in August while posting a collective .777 OPS--their best of any month this season.  The starting rotation of Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Bronson Arroyo, Mike Leake, and Homer Bailey has remained durable and effective.  Altogether, they've started every game this season except for one, a Todd Redmond spot-start at the back end of an August 18th doubleheader.  And the bullpen, perhaps the best in baseball mainly because of Aroldis Chapman's dominance, has been untouchable


So with a healthy Votto back in the heart of their order, the rich have gotten richer.  Dusty Baker's team just might be the best in the Senior Circuit.  The Nats are right there too, just as balanced and, more importantly, blessed with superior starting pitching.  Stephen Strasburg's impending shutdown diminishes that advantage somewhat, but Washington still has plenty of depth with Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Edwin Jackson, and Ross Detwiler.  Once the playoffs roll around and rotations are shortened, that quartet should be enough to get them through the postseason. Regardless of which team is better, these two squads appear to be on a playoffs collision course. I believe Washington will prevail because they're winning the arms race and have the lineup and bullpen to match Cincinatti.

But as we've seen time and time again in postseasons past, anything can happen.