Remembering Ryan Howard

With Howard's career likely over, it's time to do some reflecting (MLB.com)

It's been a couple weeks since the Braves released Ryan Howard from his Minor League contract, effectively bringing an end to the 37-year-old's career. The news didn't come as a shock to anyone who's watched him flail away over the past five seasons, but it's always sad whenever one of baseball's greats is told he can no longer play the game.

It's sadder still when one of those players starred during your childhood. When they retire, it feels like they're taking a small part of it with them. The player becomes great only in your memory, YouTube tributes, and grainy highlight reels. It also makes you realize how much time has passed since you first started cheering for them.

I wasn't a Phillies fan and never owned him in one of my fantasy leagues, so I can't say I truly rooted for Ryan Howard. But I remember the summer he exploded onto the national consciousness, establishing himself as a household name and one of the most feared hitters in baseball.

Bill Simmons once wrote somewhere that sports never matter more than when you're 14 years old. Now 10 (soon to be 11) years removed from that semi-magical age, I have to agree with him. The more I think back on it, the more sports memories I'm able to unearth from that time. It's like I'm drilling for oil, and the summer of 2006 is my Alaskan pipeline.

I think that's because I watched more Baseball Tonight (RIP) in that two-month stretch than I have before or since (this was in the dark ages before MLB Network, mind you). Every night, I'd go down into the basement and flip on BT or Sportscenter (whichever was on, though BT was infinitely better) while working out in preparation for eighth grade football.

So, yeah, I saw a lot of baseball highlights that summer, many of which involved Ryan Howard sending another meatball deep into the night.

By then, it was clear that Howard was having a special season. Expectations were high for him that spring, as they always are for players who've just won Rookie of the Year. Howard's were astronomical, though, given that his rookie numbers projected to 40 homers, 115 RBIs, and 325 total bases over a 162-game season.

Most people thought those numbers were Howard's ceiling. Few could have imagined that he'd blow them away.

Many rookies take a step back in their second season, especially strikeout-prone sluggers like Howard. The league adjusts to them, their weaknesses become exploited, and before long they look lost at the plate. There are strikeouts and pop-ups and growing pains, but it's all part of the process. The MLB learning curve is steep, sometimes taking years to master (just ask Jose Bautista).

Very rarely does a guy come up and rake from the start. A few of the all-time greats did -- Ted Williams, Joe DiMaggio, Albert Pujols -- but many didn't, including Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, and Mike Trout. Some don't hit their stride until their 30s, like Raul Ibanez or Daniel Murphy.

Not Howard. He took off like a rocket ship, homering off reigning NL Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter on Opening Day and batting over .300 through the end of April. In May he barrelled through the stratosphere, slugging 13 homers and driving in 35 runs, but somehow did not win NL Player of the Month honors. Let me repeat that: A guy hit 13 homers and had 35 RBIs in one month and did not win Player of the Month. Some guy named Jason Bay (remember him?) did, with 12 homers, 35 RBIs, and a 1.090 OPS (72 points higher than Howard). 2006 was a different time.

When Howard didn't slow down in June (nine homers, 21 RBIs, .987 OPS), that's when I really began to take notice. Towards the end of the month, he ripped two homers and drove in all seven of his team's runs in a 9-7 loss to the Yankees while becoming the first player to hit a ball into the third deck in right field at Citizens Bank Park. When I saw his stat line in the box score the following day, I remember wishing the season would end already so I'd know what Howard's final numbers would like. My summer vacation had just started, and I was already pining for October.

Howard became an MVP frontrunner with his stretch run surge (Philly Phever)

A little more than a month later, after he'd been named to his first All-Star team and competed in the Home Run Derby, Howard produced the ultra-rare 0-for-0 stat line while playing a complete game. The Marlins walked him five times -- only once intentionally -- although I'm sure several were of the unintentionally-intentional kind. That was in the first game of a doubleheader. Florida pitched to him in the second game, but Howard made them pay with three hits, including a homer.

The five-walk game (which tied a Major League record) reflected a shift in how Howard was being approached. Prior to the All-Star break, he walked 31 times (five intentionally) in 352 plate appearances. In 352 PA's after the break, he walked 77 times, a whopping 32 of which were intentional. Only three men in baseball history received more intentional walks in a season; Barry Bonds, Willie McCovey, and Albert Pujols.

Seeing fewer strikes did nothing to slow Howard's roll in August, as he slammed 14 homers and drove in 41 runs (the highest monthly total since 1962) to win NL Player of the Month. He did not go more than three games without a tater, and he ended the month with six homers and 17 RBIs -- a great month for most players -- in his final nine games. When the dog days of August drew to a close, he had 49 homers (a new Phillies record) and 128 RBIs.

The Phillies, who had a losing record for much of the summer, had been out of the playoff picture for months by the time September rolled around, but their slugging first baseman continued to mash. After playing both ends of a doubleheader on the 2nd, he smashed three big flies in the first game of a second twin ball the following day and added two hits in the night cap for good measure. Following another multi-homer game on September 8th, he'd amassed 13 homers and 26 RBIs in his previous 16 games. With the season entering its final phase, Howard had found another gear.

And even though he had 56 homers with over three weeks to go, there was little talk of him reaching 60. The once-magic number had been cheapened by Bonds, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa surpassing it six times in the previous eight seasons, and fans had become de-sensitized to gaudy home run totals. Thanks to the tireless efforts of Congress and Jose Canseco, they'd recently become aware that America's pastime was teeming with bulked up roiders, causing the home run's once-mythic power to wane considerably in the public's eye. Howard's numbers were undoubtedly impressive, but were met with a collective shrug from the baseball world. Pretty cool, Ryan, but you're still a long way from 73.

Making matters worse for Howard was that, at precisely that moment, opposing pitchers and managers decided to stop pitching to him altogether. With teams battling for postseason berths and September call-ups trying to make names for themselves, no one could afford to get cute with Howard. So they hardly bothered, walking him 28 times (14 intentional) over his final 100 plate appearances. It was the closest thing we'd seen to the Barry Bonds treatment since, well, how pitchers were treating Barry Bonds that year, who was intentionally walked 38 times (one more than Howard) at age 41. The strategy worked, limiting Howard to just two long balls and 11 RBIs over his final 21 games. Despite reaching base 53 times via hit, walk, hit-by-pitch, or error during that span (excluding his two homers), he was driven in a mere eight times, indicating just how little protection there was for Philadelphia's cleanup man.

Howard was named Player of the Month again for September after slashing .385/.562/.750, and when the dust settled on October 1st his final numbers were extraordinary; .313/.425/.659 with 58 homers (the most ever by a player in his second season), 149 RBIs, 104 runs and 108 walks (37 intentional). His home runs and RBIs paced the Major Leagues, as did his 383 total bases. Still, one can only wonder what his stats might have looked like had opponents not waved the white flag in September, or if Charlie Manuel hadn't batted him fifth throughout the first half, thereby costing him several plate appearances. 60 homers, 160 RBIs, and 400 total bases were all within reach. As great as it was, Howard's season could have been legendary.

Even so, it was still pretty monstrous. So blinding were Howard's Triple Crown numbers that he momentarily convinced baseball writers he was better than the reigning NL MVP -- the best hitter in baseball, who also happened to be an elite defensive first baseman. After all it was Albert Pujols, not Howard, who led the Majors in slugging (.671) and OPS (1.102) that year while mashing a career-high 49 homers, winning a Gold Glove and leading St. Louis to a World Series title. Had he not landed on the DL for the first time in his career, he would have surpassed 50 homers as well and possibly 150 RBIs, in which case there would have been no debate as to which first sacker had the superior season.

While Howard followed up his MVP with several more remarkable seasons, he never again reached the heights of 2006. He never came close to batting .313 again, finishing at .258 for his career, and had only one other season with an OBP above .360. He never had another 50-homer season or slugged .600 again, as pitchers soon learned that he could be neutralized with breaking stuff low and away. He quickly became unplayable against left-handed pitchers and his body began to break down. After averaging 44 homers and 133 RBIs from 2006-2011, he was below replacement level in every season except one from that point forward. It was unfortunate that he fell off a cliff as soon as his five-year, $125 million contract extension kicked in, turning him into a punchline during his final seasons.

But even at the end, when his batting average fell below .200 and he could no longer hit lefties to save his life, the power remained. He went deep 25 times in his final season in just 331 at-bats, besting his rookie rate of 22 homers in 312 at-bats. The only difference was that his OPS was 214 points lower, and that he was a 36-year-old at the end of the line than a 25-year-old kid with his whole career ahead of him.

It's a shame Howard never got to DH (his natural position) full-time, as he had the size and strength to keep hitting home runs forever. The Yankees just should have put him in that Stadium and milked a few more seasons out of him for minimal cost. They still can, I guess, especially since he'd make a nice platoon partner for Matt Holliday, but the last thing Brian Cashman wants right now is another aging bat on his roster.

Man, 2006 really was a long time ago...

Howard Has to Go

The Phillies have made it clear that Howard has to go, but where? (ESPN)

After reading up on the latest Ryan Howard rumors, I've concluded that he's the least desirable player in baseball. His team doesn't want him, and apparently neither does anyone else. Probably because he's the new (and more expensive) Adam Dunn, by which I mean the washed-up version of Dunn who struggled to hit .200 with 20 home runs and still struck out a ton last year.

Howard has always been a three true-outcome hitter, but that was perfectly fine when he was cranking 45 home runs and driving in 140 runs. Those days are long gone, however, and they're never coming back. Howard's two beneficial outcomes--walks and homers--are happening less frequently while his worst outcome (the dreaded strikeout) is occurring more often:

Year	HR%	BB%	K%
2011	5.1	11.7	26.7
2012	4.8	8.6	33.9
2013	3.5	7.3	30.3
2014	3.6	10.3	29.3

These troubling trends have diminished Howard from a great hitter in 2011 (126 OPS+) to a below average one by 2014 (93 OPS+). Already a liability in the field and on the bases, Howard is now deficient in all areas of the game. Sure enough, he was below replacement level last year (and in 2012, for that matter).

Like the recently-retired Dunn, Howard is unplayable on defense, so incompetent in the field that even first base is out of the question. The 35 year-old is a DH-only at this point. Problem is, he plays for a National League team (the Phillies). Philadelphia would love to trade him, but good luck finding someone to take him off their hands.

Because in addition to being a big-bodied 35 year-old in steep decline, Howard still has two years remaining on his ill-advised five-year, $125 million contract extension he signed with Philadelphia prior to the 2012 season, plus a team option for 2017 that, barring a Barry Bonds or David Ortiz-esque renaissance, seems guaranteed to be bought out (at a cost of $10 million). In order to move Howard, the Phillies are going to have to eat a considerable chunk of that, but it's better than cutting him outright for nothing in return.

Even Ruben Amaro, Jr., Philly's clueless GM, has realized it's time to move on. He's finally kickstarting the rebuild process in Philadelphia, albeit two or three years too late. He already traded Jimmy Rollins, who was actually still useful. Jonathan Papelbon is likely headed out the door, and Cliff Lee will probably be gone next summer, too. Pretty soon it's going to be Chase Utley and a bunch of guys.

So it's clear Howard has to play elsewhere next year, but where will he land? Surely someone could find a spot for him, as he's not completely useless at this point. He still has above average power and gets on base at a league average rate. He's not an everyday player anymore, especially against lefties, but he'd be a great fit for an AL team seeking power, especially if said team plays in a hitter-friendly park.

He'd probably do really well with the Yankees, but they've got plenty of DH options between Alex Rodriguez and Carlos Beltran. The Orioles could use him after losing Nelson Cruz, and like New York have a ballpark that's well-suited to Howard's strengths. The Indians, perhaps? The Tigers? (if they want to see firsthand how Prince Fielder would have aged?).

Wherever he goes, the Phillies have made one thing abundantly clear. It's closing time, Ryan Howard, and you can't stay here.

Fear the Phillies?

Rollins, Utley and Howard are enjoying their best seasons in years (RantSports)

The Phillies are in last place entering play today--exactly where most people thought they'd be this year after an offseason full of puzzling moves. But they're only four games below .500, and the same number out of first place in the NL East. They're still very much in contention, positioned so that one good week could vault them to the top of the standings.

The Phillies in first place after Memorial Day? Not as far-fetched as you might think.

One reason why the Phils are still in it is that their once famous infield core of Chase Utley and former MVPs Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard, are all having their best seasons in years. They've turned back the clock, so to speak; not quite to their heyday of 2006-2009, but closer than anyone had a reason to expect.

Let's start with Utley, who's having a downright fantastic season, easily his best in five years. He's leading the major league in doubles (with 22), batting well over .300 and posting the best OPS+ of his career. Healthier than he's been in years, the five-time All-Star is playing like it. He's been the team's most valuable position player thus far and the tenth most valuable position player in the Senior Circuit per bWAR. Some decline should be expected from the 35 year-old keystone, injury-related or otherwise, but the fact remains that he's still a very good player having a great season, which Carlos Beltran, Torii Hunter, and Victor Martinez have shown isn't out of the ordinary (another MVP-caliber season sure would go a long way towards boosting his Hall of Fame credentials, too).

J-Roll, the oldest of the bunch at 35-and-a-half,  is having, on an adjusted OPS basis, his best year with the bat since 2007, when he edged out Matt Holliday for NL MVP honors. Rollins has already equaled last season's home run total (6) and has shown a career-best walk rate of 13.7 percent, which explains his career-high .358 OBP. After years of putting up middling on-base percentages, Rollins finally seems to understand the importance of reaching base when batting near the top of the lineup. As long as he maintains his newfound plate discipline, his .250-ish batting average (which is essentially league average, now) will be tolerable for a table-setter.

And then there's Howard, now a Mark Reynolds/Adam Dunn-type all-or-nothing slugger. The team leader in long balls and RBI is on pace for around 30 and 110, figures he hasn't reached since 2011. But those shiny power numbers come at a cost: Howard is leading the major leagues in strikeouts, batting a meager .227, and his on-base percentage is a borderline unacceptable .303. Obviously those numbers are not ideal, but consider that last year only three players--Chris Davis, Miguel Cabrera and Paul Goldschmidt--topped both 30 long balls and 110 ribbies. The 34 year-old first baseman is very limited at this stage of his career, but he can still hit the ball out of the park and drive in runs.

Obviously the Phillies need all three to keep doing what they're doing if they hope to stay afloat in the crowded NL East. Their offense is already below average compared to the rest of the National League, so any slippage on their part would likely doom Philadelphia's lineup. The Phils rely on them and Marlon Byrd for the bulk of their offensive production, and for the first third of the season all three have exceeded expectations.

They've turned around their careers, at least for the time being. Now let's see if they can turn around the Phillies.

Trout Gets Much-Deserved Raise

If you just got your salary doubled and became a millionaire, you'd be smiling too

Mike Trout will make twice as much money as he made last year, and he'll still be the best bargain in baseball by a mile.

Consider that over the past two seasons, Trout has scored more runs and stolen more bases than anybody in baseball. He's been worth 20.4 fWAR. Nobody else has more than 15 (Andrew McCutchen). He's totaled more fWAR by himself than all the position players on the Mariners, Marlins, and Astros. In fact, he has more fWAR than all the Miami and Houston position players put together. That's absolutely nuts.

Last year alone, Trout was worth as many wins above replacement as all the New York Yankees position players put together (which is really impressive, or sad, considering Robinson Cano was worth six wins by himself). The Angels got more from Mike Trout than six other teams got from all their position players. He had more fWAR than the Marlins, Astros, White Sox, and Mariners combined.

Teams spent hundreds of millions of dollars to get what Mike Trout has provided for just $1 million over the last two years (and somehow LA missed the playoffs both years, despite allocating $250 million to other players during that time). He'll cost the Angels $1 million this year, which will be the most any team has ever paid for a one-year deal from a player who was not yet arbitration-eligible. Ryan Howard and his current teammate Albert Pujols held the previous record of $900,000.

Interestingly enough, all three were voted Rookie of the Year. Here's what else they'd accomplished at the time of signing:

Pujols:   1,351 PA  71 HR  .321/.399/.586  154 OPS+ 12.7 fWAR, MVP runner-up
Howard: 1,094 PA  82 HR  .304/.399/.624  155 OPS+ 8.2 fWAR, 2006 NL MVP
Trout:   1,490 PA  62 HR  .314//404/.544  166 OPS+ 21.1 fWAR, 2 MVP runner-ups

Trout's clearly the best of the bunch in terms of context-adjusted hitting and overall value. Both his predecessors went on to land monster contracts, so the way Trout's career is shaping up it's only a matter of time before he scores a mega-payday of his own.

But for now, he'll have to settle for $1 million.

5 Players to Worry About

Last week I looked at players who have started slowly but are bound to turn it around. Here are five players who are still struggling and probably won't rebound to the production levels we've come to expect from them:

Jimmy Rollins (.251/.302/.389)
J-Roll's walk rate and contact rates have fallen every year since 2010 while his whiff rate has increased, disturbing trends  for a 34 year-old shortstop. His infield hit rate and stole base numbers are down as well, suggesting that he's lost a step or two.

Paul Konerko (.224/.280/.340)
The 37 year-old is striking out more than ever before, his walks are down, and he's not making nearly as much hard contact. These stats, compiled by ESPN fantasy baseball analyst Tristan Cockcroft, pretty much tell the story here.
2012 first half: .195 isolated power, .223 well-hit average, 10.3 BB%
2012 second half: .174 isolated power, .205 well-hit average, 8.3 BB%
2013 to date: .116 isolated power, .164 well-hit average, 6.2 BB%
This drop-off is more than just a slump: it signifies an erosion in skills.

Josh Hamilton (.216/.271/.351)
Blame the pressure living up to his new contract if you wish, but the truth is that Hamilton has been a bad hitter for almost a full calendar year. From June 1st onward last year, he batted .245 while striking out in 28.7 percent of his plate appearances. So far this season he's been even worse. His walk rate has fallen off a cliff (down to 5.9) percent) and he's still striking out a ton. His pop-out rate has more than doubled. He's chasing way too many pitches out of the strike zone and swinging at the first pitch far too often. Unless he adjusts and corrects those bad habits, he's not going to pull out of this funk.

David Freese (.223/.292/.282)
Freese, an All-Star last year, didn't hit his first home run of the season until last Friday (at least it was a grand slam, so he got the most out of it). That was hardly surprising, though, given his off-the-charts 4.17 GB/FB ratio. He needs to stop pounding the ball into the ground and start elevating it into the air. He is 30, so it could be possible that what we're seeing is the beginning of a downward trend in his career.

Ryan Howard (.245/.282/.430)
It's no secret that Howard's days as an elite slugger are behind him. Since 2011, he's a .229 hitter with a 4.26 K/BB ratio. His walk rate has nosedived down to 5.5 percent and he's swinging the bat more than ever before. His new aggressive approach isn;t paying off though, since his contact rate is down and he's coming up empty more often. It doesn't help that the 33 year-old is completely and utterly helpless against southpaws, too.