Trout Gets Much-Deserved Raise

If you just got your salary doubled and became a millionaire, you'd be smiling too

Mike Trout will make twice as much money as he made last year, and he'll still be the best bargain in baseball by a mile.

Consider that over the past two seasons, Trout has scored more runs and stolen more bases than anybody in baseball. He's been worth 20.4 fWAR. Nobody else has more than 15 (Andrew McCutchen). He's totaled more fWAR by himself than all the position players on the Mariners, Marlins, and Astros. In fact, he has more fWAR than all the Miami and Houston position players put together. That's absolutely nuts.

Last year alone, Trout was worth as many wins above replacement as all the New York Yankees position players put together (which is really impressive, or sad, considering Robinson Cano was worth six wins by himself). The Angels got more from Mike Trout than six other teams got from all their position players. He had more fWAR than the Marlins, Astros, White Sox, and Mariners combined.

Teams spent hundreds of millions of dollars to get what Mike Trout has provided for just $1 million over the last two years (and somehow LA missed the playoffs both years, despite allocating $250 million to other players during that time). He'll cost the Angels $1 million this year, which will be the most any team has ever paid for a one-year deal from a player who was not yet arbitration-eligible. Ryan Howard and his current teammate Albert Pujols held the previous record of $900,000.

Interestingly enough, all three were voted Rookie of the Year. Here's what else they'd accomplished at the time of signing:

Pujols:   1,351 PA  71 HR  .321/.399/.586  154 OPS+ 12.7 fWAR, MVP runner-up
Howard: 1,094 PA  82 HR  .304/.399/.624  155 OPS+ 8.2 fWAR, 2006 NL MVP
Trout:   1,490 PA  62 HR  .314//404/.544  166 OPS+ 21.1 fWAR, 2 MVP runner-ups

Trout's clearly the best of the bunch in terms of context-adjusted hitting and overall value. Both his predecessors went on to land monster contracts, so the way Trout's career is shaping up it's only a matter of time before he scores a mega-payday of his own.

But for now, he'll have to settle for $1 million.

The Dodgers' Pricey Outfield

I read something that blew my mind today. The Los Angeles Dodgers have upwards of $57 million committed to three outfielders this year: Matt Kemp, Carl Crawford, and Andre Ethier. In other words, the Dodgers are giving those three guys close to what the Chicago Cubs and Minnesota Twins paid their entire teams last year, not to mention more than the Astros and Marlins combined.

That wasn't what surprised me though. The Dodgers are the richest team in baseball by far and will spend around $250 million this season. They seem to have infinite money; with a roster that includes four players earning over $20 million apiece and another six set to earn more than 10, they were still able to dig deep and give Clayton Kershaw a $215 million contract extension, then make Masahiro Tanaka an offer. Theirs is a team built around expensive talent

No, what shocked me was that the Dodgers have so much money tied up in those three--about $300 million in future salary commitments if Ethier's vesting option kicks in--and none of them are very good anymore. Or at least they weren't last year, when they were worth about five bWAR put together. A few years ago, that outfield would have been a superb collection of talent. All have Gold Gloves, Silver Sluggers, All-Star appearances, and serious MVP consideration on their resumes. They all brought something different to the table: Crawford had ridiculous speed, Kemp blended speed with power, and Ethier got on base and hit for power.

Unfortunately for the Dodgers, it's not 2010 anymore. Their star-studded outfield has deteriorated to the point that somebody will need to accept a reduced role so Yasiel Puig can play everyday. If LA had succeeded in trading Kemp, then this wouldn't be an issue, but nobody was too interested in potentially damaged goods who's still due $130 mil over the next six seasons.

So who's it going to be? Puig saw action at all three outfield positions last year but spent the lion's share of his time in right, which would seem to push former Gold Glover Andre Ethier out. But Ethier proved he could play a halfway decent center field while Kemp was on the mend and had the best offensive season of the three. Kemp, a two-time Gold Glove winner in center, will need to prove himself by showing he can stay healthy. Crawford's been a left fielder all his life, spending 1,429 of his 1,468 career games there and winning a Gold Glove in 2010, but his offense is no longer worthy of a corner outfield spot.

Let's take a closer look at each one to try to figure this out:

The youngest, most talented and most expensive of the group is Kemp, who's set to make $21 million this year. That salary comes from the eight-year, $160 million deal he signed after his monster 2011, when he showed just how awesome he could be. Kemp put it all together that year, finishing runner-up to Ryan Braun in the MVP race after falling one home run shy of 40/40 and piling up 8.1 bWAR.

But injuries have ravaged his career since then, limiting him to 106 games in 2012 and just 73 last year, during which his power was non-existent. Health is a big question mark for Kemp going forward, and it remains to be seen if he can recapture the form that made him one of the game's best all-around players before last season. He's too young to write off and has the most bounce back potential of the three.

Then there's Crawford, who's going to cost LA $20 million and some change. Crawford, you might recall, signed his seven-year, $142 million contract with the Red Sox prior to their infamous 2011 disaster. Crawford struggled mightily that year and was hurt the next, causing Boston to dump him (along with Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez and Nick Punto) on the Dodgers in late August. He got off to a hot start last year, only to miss five weeks with a hamstring injury and bat an uninspiring .270/.307/.361 after returning in early July.

Since landing his huge payday, Crawford has not proven himself to be anywhere near the excellent player he was with Tampa Bay. Various injuries have knocked him out of the lineup too often, causing him to miss an average of 70 games per season over the past three. To make matters worse, he hasn't been very productive when he does play, as his 97 OPS+ and 2.3 bWAR in that time can attest. He can still run a bit and hit a little--skills that play well in Dodger Stadium--but doesn't do nearly enough of either to justify his massive salary. That doesn't figure to change much as he prepares to turn 33 this summer. He sucked against southpaws last year, managing a meager .551 OPS against them, and could be the odd man out if he doesn't show signs of rebounding.

Last but not least we have Andre Ethier, who just completed the first year of his ill-advised five-year, $85 million contract extension and will collect $15.5 million this season. Ethier was the most valuable of the trio last year by sheer virtue of staying healthy enough to play 142 games. That looks like far too many for a player who can't hit lefties to save his life (.613 OPS against them last year, .644 for his career) and doesn't offer much power (averaging 14 homers and 68 RBI over his last three seasons).

That said, Ethier is still a comfortably above average offensive player even if his traditional numbers leave something to be desired. He gets on base at a good clip--.360 OBP last year, .362 for his career--and hits lots of doubles, much like Nick Markakis. His bat, which produced a 122 OPS+ last year, was worth close to three wins by itself. So even though Ethier doesn't offer much in the way of speed or defense, he still hits enough to merit a spot in the everyday lineup (with off days coming against lefthanders, of course). He'll be 32 in April, so some decline should be expected.

So to sum it up, Crawford should be the one to sit at first. If I were Don Mattingly I'd keep Puig in right, Kemp in center, and shift Ethier to left. If Kemp breaks down again, let Ethier cover for him (or maybe even give Puig a shot at the glory position) and slide Crawford back to left. It hurts to spend more than $20 million on a fourth outfielder, but that's what teams have been doing with Vernon Wells for years. And besides, if any team can afford to eat that kind of money, it's the Dodgers.

AL West Preview

1st Place--Los Angeles Angels
2012 Record: 89-73
2012 Pythagorean: 88-74
2013 Projected: 92-70
After starting last year 7-15 with Mike Trout toiling in the minors and Albert Pujols mired in the worst slump of his career, the Halos dug themselves out of an early hole and produced the best record in baseball from that point forward. Though their wretched April cost them a playoff berth in 2012, the Angels are poised to make the postseason after inking Josh Hamilton--the most coveted position player on the free agent market--to a five-year, $125 million deal. Though the former MVP is on the wrong side of 30 and will likely regress and/or get hurt following a career year in 2012, he'll provide a heavy dose of lefthanded power LA so desperately craves. That said, don't be surprised if Hamilton goes bust and Torii Hunter, now with the Tigers, produces more value in 2013. Mike Scoscia will have the pleasure of filling out a lineup card that features baseball's best all-around player (Trout), baseball's most exciting player (Hamilton) and one of the best hitters of all-time in Pujols. Trout figures to slide a bit following his historic season, but at least his talent won't be wasted in the minor leagues. Pujols shrugged off a slow start to bat .312/.374/.589 from May 15th onward, proving talk about his decline to be premature. Expect similar numbers in year two of his gargantuan contract. Slugger Mark Trumbo has been a mess since the end of July, but I think he reverts to his mashing ways in his age-27 season. I could also see Peter Bourjos breaking out. Jered Weaver, the only American League pitcher to finish in the top five of the Cy Young voting in each of the past three years, is a bona fide ace even though his strikeout rate has plunged from 9.3 K/9 in 2010 to 6.8 K/9 last year. C.J Wilson will improve upon his first season with the Angels when he takes advantage of the run support boost and friendly home ballpark. Jason Vargas and Tommy Hanson are intriguing additions to the starting rotation, though I'm guessing most Angels fans would rather have seen their team keep Dan Haren and Zack Greinke. However, I don't think they'll miss Ervin Santana and Vernon Wells too much. The bullpen should get a nice boost from Ryan Madson, but it remains to be seen how effective he'll be after sitting out all of last year recovering from Tommy John surgery. Given how much worse the Rangers got over the winter, the AL West is theirs for the taking.

2nd Place--Texas Rangers
2012 Record: 93-69
2012 Pythagorean: 91-71
2013 Projected: 88-74
As if blowing their division lead on the regular season’s final day wasn’t miserable enough, the Texas Rangers followed up their late-season collapse with a lean winter. They waved goodbye when sluggers Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli signed with new teams. They parted ways with veteran leader and fan favorite Michael Young. They winced when Nelson Cruz‘s name surfaced in the latest PED scandal. They whiffed on Justin Upton. Talk about a rough offseason. Faced with limited options and suddenly short on offense, the Rangers turned to Lance Berkman out of desperation. Five years ago that would have been a great get for them, but Big Puma is 37 and doesn't appear to have much left in the tank after needing four separate DL stints last year. He's just one of many Rangers at risk for disappointing seasons. Texas paced the American League in runs and hits last year, and while their lineup is still formidable there's no way that happens again this year. Adrian Beltre is their best hitter, and he'll be 34 two weeks from now. Ian Kinsler is on the wrong side of 30, too, and second basemen age horribly. Cruz will turn 33 and his best days are probably behind him. At 36, A.J. Pierzynski can't possibly repeat his career year and will probably wear down over the course of a long Texas summer. The offense will probably be fine, but there's a lot of downside risk here and not much upside. Yu Darvish made adjustments toward the end of last year and is going to have a big sophomore season (like Daisuke Matsuzaka did). He needs to cut down on his walks, but could win 20 games and the Cy Young award even though the Ballpark in Arlington will likely suppress his numbers. He anchors a strong rotation that also features Matt Harrison, Derek Holland, and Alexi Ogando. Joe Nathan proved he's still an elite closer in his Texas debut last year, making the All-Star team and saving 37 games. Joakim Soria, a former All-Star closer with the Kansas City Royals, will set him up. The Rangers certainly have enough talent to win 90+ games again and challenge the top spot in the division, but I see them taking a small step back in 2013.


3rd Place--Oakland A's
2012 Record: 94-68
2012 Pythagorean: 92-70
2013 Projected: 83-79
I still can't believe these guys won the AL West last year, especially since they ended May seven games below .500. Maybe that's why I can't shake the feeling that they just got red-hot for four months and will probably fall back to earth in 2013 (not quite like the Orioles, but similar). The A's are woefully short on offense without Chris Carter, Stephen Drew, and Jonny Gomes, though the middle of the order has some potential. Yoenis Cespedes is a Vladimir Guerrero-type who can hit the ball out of a canyon and is an MVP-candidate-in-the-making, but I'm not totally sold on Josh Reddick as an All-Star caliber player just yet. Chris Young brings a nice power/speed combo, but it's worth noting that he's a .224/.311/.409 hitter away from Chase Field. Jemile Weeks is almost guaranteed to bounce back from a miserable year in which his BABiP cratered at .256. The bottom half of their lineup is a disaster, so runs will be in short supply. That means Oakland will have to rely on its elite pitching staff, which ranked second in ERA last year. With Jarrod Parker, Tommy Milone, A.J. Griffin, and Dan Straily all poised to build off successful 2012s, the young rotation is brimming with upside. Brandon McCarthy will be missed, but Oakland is hoping Brett Anderson can finally stay healthy after averaging just 13 starts per year over the past three. He's demonstrated the ability to pitch like an ace, so a full season from him would go a long way towards boosting his team's playoff chances (but I wouldn't count on it). The bullpen looks stellar on paper, and the defense is solid, too. The A's could be a great team again if the starting pitching improves and Cespedes makes the leap to superstardom, but I see them settling into the 80-85 win range and missing the postseason.

4th Place--Seattle Mariners
2012 Record: 75-87
2012 Pythagorean: 77-85
2013 Projected: 73-89
The Mariners have lacked adequate firepower for quite some time now--you'd have to go back to the end of the Bush administration to find the last time Seattle didn't finish last among AL teams in runs scored. That's going to change this year after taking on veteran hitters Michael Morse, Kendrys Morales, Raul Ibanez, and Jason Bay. Ibanez and Bay are bench players at this stage in their careers, but Morales and Morse add much-needed pop to the middle of the order. As the cornerstone of Seattle's lineup, Jesus Montero must (and will) improve upon his disappointing 2012 (.685 OPS, -0.2 bWAR). He's just 23 and still has room to grow, as do Kyle Seager, Dustin Ackley and Justin Smoak. Moving in Safeco's fences will help these young hitters, but not enough to make much of a difference. The Mariners have one of the best pitchers around in Felix Hernandez, but he seems to be at risk for a down year after receiving a mammoth contract extension and throwing more innings than any other hurler since 2009. Seattle's rotation is a mess with him and would be downright unwatchable without him. M's are stocked with young pitching talent that could arrive in the Show later this year, but by the time they're ready to contribute it will too late to improve Seattle's non-existent playoff chances. They're still rebuilding and at least another year or two away from making a serious run at one of the wild card spots.

5th Place--Houston Astros
2012 Record: 55-107
2012 Pythagorean: 59-103
2013 Record: 58-104
Welcome to the American League, boys. It's going to eat you alive.

Dodgers Get Greinke

Four months ago the Los Angeles Angels won the Zack Greinke sweepstakes. This time around, the other baseball team in Hollywood got him.

On July 27th the Angels traded for Zack Greinke, adding the former Cy Young winner to a stacked starting rotation that already included Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, C.J. Wilson and Ervin Santana. At the time, the Halos were four games behind Texas in the AL West and still trying to dig themselves out of the hole created by their 7-15 start. But the Rangers were fading, Albert Pujols was the masher he'd been paid to be and Mike Trout was playing so well that the BBWAA might as well have just handed him the AL MVP trophy right then and there. Surely Greinke would push LA over the top and help get the Angels back to the playoffs for the first time since 2009.

It didn't happen. Los Angeles endured another 7-15 tailspan immediately following the Greinke trade, and they ended the year in third place despite a torrid finish to their season. Greinke initially struggled in his new digs but, to his credit, pitched well down the stretch.

A similar scenario played out across town as the Dodgers, formerly of Brooklyn, made a furious charge for their first postseason appearance in three years.  The playoff hungry Bums went all-out to bulk up their roster, trading for Hanley Ramirez and Shane Victorino just before the July 32st deadline, then taking Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett and Adrian Gonzalez off Boston's hands in late August. This new blood kept the Dodgers afloat for a few more weeks--they were in first place as late as August 19th--before they plummeted out of the race by dropping 20 of their next 32 games. By the time LA righted the ship it was too late; they had fallen ten games behind the Giants in the standings and missed out on October.

With the bitter taste of disappointment in their mouths, both clubs entered the offseason eyeing Greinke, unquestionably the top starting pitcher on the market. He was going to cost a pretty penny, something close to the $161 million CC Sabathia received from the New York Yankees four years ago. The Rangers were also in the mix, but in the end it was the Dodgers who made Greinke one of the richest pitchers in baseball history by opening up their wallets and giving him a six-year, $147 million deal, the largest contract ever signed by a right-handed pitcher. His annual salary of $24.5 million is the highest ever for a pitcher, falling just short of what Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols bank every year.

No, Greinke didn't quite get Sabathia money, but he came close and will have to settle for Cole Hamels money. That sounds about right considering that Hamels is a good comp for Greinke; they're two months apart in age, have 91 career wins and can be dominant pitchers at their best but aren't what I consider to be elite hurlers.

With the exception of his masterful 2009 when he channeled Justin Verlander and Pedro Martinez, Greinke's been more of a really good number two starter. In the three seasons since, he's got a 3.83 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and a 106 ERA+. Good numbers, but not great. Those looking to nitpick Greinke and/or claim he's not worth the money have no shortage of ammunition. He's a one-time All-Star (got snubbed last summer, but still), has never won more than 16 games in any season and got bombed in his only postseason. He has just three shutouts to his name (all in '09) and hasn't gone the full nine innings since June 13th, 2010. Perhaps the most startling statistic of all is that Baseball-Reference credits him with only 6.7 bWAR since 2010. A player with a nine figure contract should be able to provide that much value in one season, not three.

But Greinke's stellar peripheral numbers suggest that he has pitched better than his ERA indicates. During his time in Kansas City and Milwaukee he was victimized by poor defense, shaky bullpens and plain bad luck. That explains the substantial discrepancy between his FIP, xFIP and ERA in recent years. It goes without saying that the 29 year-old should post better numbers next year in the weaker National League by making half his starts in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium, especially when you account for LA's lights-out bullpen and solid D.

It's interesting that LA was willing to go above and beyond for Greinke because pitching was not one of their weaknesses in 2012. In fact, it was one of their strengths. The staff's 3.41 ERA last year ranked third in the majors. Kershaw turned in another Cy Young worthy performance while Aaron Harang, Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly and Chris Capuano all produced above average results. But in baseball, you can never have too much pitching. Greinke will be a formidable number two/sidekick to Kershaw, who over the past few years has looked like a Sandy Koufax-in-the-making. I guess that makes Greinke the equivalent of Don Drysdale in that analogy.

However, adding Greinke hikes LA's already bloated payroll up to $210 million, meaning the Dodgers are the most expensive team in baseball, at least for now. The Dodgers have signaled that they're all in, willing win at all costs and do whatever to takes to make the playoffs. No expense will be spared. They're the New Yankees, gobbling up stars and ugly contracts left and right. Heck, if they hadn't just handed Andre Ethier a five-year, $85 million extension, they probably would have shelled out for Josh Hamilton, too. Imagine Hamilton sharing the same outfield with Matt Kemp.

Hey, with the way the Dodgers are spending money lately, it might not be as far-fetched as you think.