Bye Bye Beckett

Beckett had Hall of Fame talent but couldn't stay healthy (WashingtonTimes)

Josh Beckett, one of the best big game pitchers of his generation, has thrown his last pitch in the big leagues.

Beckett is retiring after an effective but injury-plagued 2014. He made 20 starts and two trips to the Disabled List before being shut down for the season in early August because of a (career-ending) torn labrum in his left hip. One of those starts was a no-hitter against the Philadelphia Phillies on May 25th, the first and only no-no of his career.

And what a career it was! It could be said that Beckett didn't quite live up to the early promise that made him the second overall pick of the 1999 draft (behind some guy named Josh Hamilton) and World Series MVP at age 23. A lot of that can be chalked up to health, as Beckett topped 200 innings in a season just three times in his 14-year career. He barely made it to 2,000 career innings despite being a frontline starter for the better part of a decade and a half.

But when he was healthy enough to take the mound, Beckett was usually pretty good. FanGraphs estimates he was worth 39 wins above replacement over the course of his career with an ERA that was 11 percent better than average after adjustments for league and park. His 3.02 K/BB ratio ain't bad, either. He made three All-Star teams and was the 2007 AL Cy Young runner-up to CC Sabathia despite leading the majors in wins (with 20) and AL in FIP (3.08).

As good as Beckett was during the regular season, he was even better during the postseason, positively Bob Gibson-esque. He dominated the first two playoff runs of his career, leading his teams to World Series championships each time. His initial claim to fame came was shutting out the Yankees in the decisive game of the 2003 World Series as a member of the Florida Marlins, holding the Bombers to five hits and two walks while striking out nine.

Four years later he was lights-out in October again, this time for the Boston Red Sox. By then an established star, Beckett's reputation preceded him, but did not preclude him from pitching the best baseball of his life. He won all four of his starts that month, allowing only four earned runs in 30 masterful innings (1.20 ERA) while posting an absurd 35/2 K/BB ratio. He was named ALCS MVP after pitching Boston back from the brink of defeat with a key Game 5 victory in that series.

That sparkling playoff performance capped the best season of his career. He was only 27, still at the peak of his powers, but after that his career began to go downhill. He slipped in 2008, rebounded in 2009, and suffered a lost year in 2010. In 2011 he returned to form, only to pitch terribly down the stretch and go down in infamy as one of the beer and chicken guzzling 2011 Boston Red Sox. The following year he struggled and became reviled in Boston, drawing the ire of both fans and media before he was shipped out of town along with Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Nick Punto. The Red Sox won the World Series without him in 2013, with Beckett making just eight starts for his new team, the Los Angeles Dodgers.

While I'm sure 2014 was a frustrating season for Beckett, especially towards the end (he failed to pitch beyond the fifth inning in any of his final five starts), he has to be happy with his performance. Most starting pitchers don't get to go out with a 2.88 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. It was classic Beckett, showing us how good he could be, but not healthy enough to do it for very long.

Coghlan's Comeback

Coghlan's been on base a lot lately (CSN Chicago)

Remember Chris Coghlan?

Until about a week ago, I'd completely forgotten the 2009 NL Rookie of the Year. After looking at his recent track record, it's not hard to see why.

In the four years between his rookie season and this one, he batted .242/.307/.352 with 12 home runs and 70 RBI in just over 1,000 plate appearances. Across 265 games he put up a 79 OPS+ and was worth -1.4 fWAR. Injuries played a big part in that, robbing him of almost the entire second half of his sophomore season (knee surgery), nearly 60 percent of his 2011  (inflammation in the same knee), and almost three months last year (lower back strain). In this regard he was like the National League equivalent of Grady Sizemore; an outfielder who'd shown tons of promise early in his career only to see his prime years ruined by injuries.

Still, the fact remains that when Coghlan was healthy enough to play during those years, he wasn't very good. So it came as no surprise that the Marlins, the only team Coghlan had ever known, non-tendered him last winter. It was time. Even bad teams like the Marlins can't afford to waste a roster space on a corner outfielder in his late 20s who can't hit, run, or field. With young Christian Yelich showing promise and ready to replace him, Miami had to cut Coghlan loose. No regrets and no hard feelings.

Closing in on 30, beaten down by injuries and five years removed his last (and only) good season, Coghlan looked like he was going to be remembered as one of those Rookies of the Year who fell off the map, a one-hit wonder whose best season just happened to come at the beginning of a career that, for whatever reason (injuries, failure to make adjustments, bad luck) never panned out. Added to the list of vaguely familiar names like Angel Berroa, Bobby Crosby, and Jason Jennings, recent Rookie of the Year recipients nobody remembers.

The rebuilding Cubs took a flier on him, giving him a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training. He wasn't on the big league roster when camp broke and was optioned to Triple-A Iowa, where he got on base a good amount (.379 OBP) but failed to hit a home run in 24 games there. He was basically Daniel Nava.

So it was somewhat surprising when the Cubs called him up in early May. Initially Coghlan played sparingly, limited to pinch-hitting duty and the occasional start. He began receiving regular at-bats in June and became more comfortable at the plate as a result. His batting line rose steadily throughout the month, from .139/.184/.139 on the first to .204/.281/.330 by the end of June.

In July, with the Cubbies no longer in contention, Coghlan began to shine. He hit safely in 13 of 14 games before the All-Star Break, catching fire and becoming a mainstay in Chicago's lineup. His power, dormant for so long, emerged as well with eight doubles and three homers.
Coghlan continued raking after the break, notching hits in 14 of 17 games to open the second half and raising his batting line all the way up to .302/.382/.498 after a 3-for-3 effort on August 6th.

It's been far and away Coghlan's best prolonged stretch of hitting since he batted .321/.390/.460 as a 24 year-old rookie in 2009. Rick Renteria, the Cubs manager, has responded by batting him leadoff, using Coghlan's on-base skills to jumpstart a lineup that doesn't have much offense outside of Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo (much like how John Farrell's been batting Brock Holt leadoff to try to spark an otherwise lifeless Red Sox lineup). With Coghlan notching 13 multi-hit games and reaching base more than 46 percent of the time since the calendar flipped to July, scoring 23 times as a result, the move has paid off. He's setting the table and giving the guys behind him lots of opportunities to drive in runs, which is all anyone can really ask of a leadoff man.

Coghlan's unexpected comeback has been of the better stories in baseball lately, seeing as how he appeared to be out of a job not too long ago. A career-best walk rate and improved strikeout rate have fueled his success along with the highest HR/FB rate of his career and a more balanced batted ball distribution. His .337 BABiP is significantly better than average but not out of whack with his .320 career rate, though his .413 rate since the start of July screams small sample fluke. Accordingly, neither Steamer nor ZiPS expect the 29 year-old to keep hitting this way much longer. Both predict that his OPS to fall about 50 points between now and the end of the season, but neither one projects him to totally fall apart, either.

That's because for the first time in half a decade, Chris Coghlan's a legitimately good baseball player again.

NL East Preview

1st Place--Washington Nationals
2012 Record: 98-64
2012 Pythagorean: 96-66
2013 Projected: 102-60
Tom Verducci showed how 100-win teams are dying out in the modern game, but if any team has the potential to crack the century mark in the win column, its the Nationals. Washington posted the best record in baseball last year and returns fully intact (minus Mike Morse), another year older and wiser. This is a team that has to be considered World Series favorites because it has no holes. The Nats have quality bats top-to-bottom, speed, power and on-base ability. The only weak spot is catcher (Kurt Suzuki), but hopefully he hits so poorly that Wilson Ramos earns a chance to win the job back. Their rotation (Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Dan Haren, Jordan Zimmermann, and Ross Detwiler) is the best in baseball, and their bullpen is just as filthy with Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen setting up Rafael Soriano. Full seasons from Strasburg and Bryce Harper (and hopefully Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth) will push this team over the top.

2nd Place--Atlanta Braves
2012 Record: 94-68
2012 Pythagorean: 92-70
2013 Projected: 91-71
The Braves boast a young, exciting lineup loaded with tons of speed and power. Justin Upton and B.J. Upton are the key additions that will balance out Atlant's southpaw mashers with their righthanded pop. Jason Heyward took a big step forward last year to get back on the Ken Griffey Jr. track scouts predicted him to follow. Dan Uggla must improve after submitting the worst season of his career last year. Freddie Freeman should get better after putting his eye issues behind him. Gerald Laird will be forced to catch on a regular basis until Brian McCann returns, and even then there's a chance that McCann won't be the perennial All-Star we're used to seeing. Shortstop Andrelton Simmons plays stellar defense but will be tested in his first full big league season. However it's important to remember that Michael Bourn, Chipper Jones and Martin Prado and their combined 14 bWAR will not return in 2013. The rotation looks good on paperwith the timeless Tim Hudson leading the way, flanked by Mike Minor, Paul Maholm, and budding ace Kris Medlen. Medlen pitched like Sandy Koufax in a dozen starts last year, but it remains to be seen how he'll hold up over the course of a full season. The staff will get a nice boost if/when Brandon Beachy returns from Tommy John, probably near the end of the summer. Atlanta has what is arguably the best bullpen in baseball with Jordan Walden joining Jonny Venters, Craig Kimbrel and Eric O'Flaherty. The Braves are going to be tough to beat in the late innings of close ballgames and shouldn't have much of a problem making it back to the postseason.

3rd Place--Philadelphia Phillies
2012 Record: 81-81
2012 Pythagorean: 81-81
2013 Projected: 87-75
The Phillies were massive disappointments last year, when injuries ruined their roster and resulted in a .500 season. It's easy to write them off as too old and injury-prone (like the Yankees), but don't forget that they're just one year removed from a 102 win season. Philadelphia is still a dangerous, if not top-heavy, ballclub loaded with veteran talent. The offense is an interesting mix of aging stars and unproven youngsters. The infield triumvirate of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Jimmy Rollins are all past their primes, but if they all stay healthy then they're going to be productive. Carlos Ruiz will return from his suspension at the end of the month to provide an offensive lift behind the plate, even if there's no chance he replicates his sensational 2012. Everybody's saying this is the year Domonic Brown breaks out, and one look at his spring training numbers confirms the hype. The outfield (Brown, Ben Revere, and Laynce Nix) is going to miss Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino, though Revere provides a heavy dose of speed and defense as a homeless' man's Michael Bourn. Don't expect much out of newcomers Michael Young and Delmon Young. Philly's rotation is still a three-headed monster with Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee all capable of winning a Cy Young award, though Halladay is coming off a poor season and hasn't looked the same in spring training. His age and heavy workloads may have finally caught up to him. Lee pitched much better last year than his 6-9 record indicates and should see his win total bounce back in 2013. Jonathan Papelbon was terrific in his NL debut, but Charlie Manuel needs to deploy him properly. I don't think Philadelphia will make the playoffs, but one has to acknowledge that the talent is there for a 90 win season and a postseason berth.

4th Place--New York Mets
2012 Record: 74-88
2012 Pythagorean: 75-87
2013 Projected: 75-87
As bad as the depleted Yankees look right now, they'll still be better than their crosstown rivals. The last half-decade has not been kind to the team in Flushing, and this season doesn't figure to be any different. The Mets have a nice infield and several premier prospects, but that's not going to cut it in a loaded NL East. 23 year-old Ruben Tejada held his own as the everyday shortstop last year, but his lack of power makes him Elvis Andrus without the wheels. David Wright returned to form last year after a down 2011, but his health woes in spring training lead me to believe he might struggle again in 2013. Slugging first baseman Ike Davis is one of baseball's best kept secrets and should have better luck after posting a .246 BABiP last year. Now if he can just figure out how to hit lefties... He and Lucas Duda are coming into their primes and will be counted on to support Wright in the meat of New York's order. Without Johan Santana and R.A. Dickey, the rotation lacks a true number one. Jonathan Niese was great last year, but he's no ace. Neither is the ever-underrated Shaun Marcum, who missed time with an elbow strain last year and will open the season on the Disabled List. Young power-pitcher Matt Harvey needs to step up and fill the void, though he'll likely face an adjustment period at some point this season. He could be the best pitcher on the Mets this year, or he could just as easily go bust when big league hitters start figuring him out. I can't say I like New York's bullpen, not that it's going to make much of a difference either way. the Mets have the talent to be a .500 team at best, but I see them enduring a fifth consecutive losing season. At least they don't have to worry about finishing in last place.

5th Place--Florida Marlins
2012 Record: 69-93
2012 Pythagorean: 68-94
2013 Projected: 57-105
There's no way this team doesn't lose at least 100 games. Less than a year after spending money like a drunken playboy in a Vegas casino, the Marlins dismantled their roster piece by piece, trading away all their talent Harry Frazee-style. Now, all that's left is the wildly inconsistent Ricky Nolasco, a disgruntled Giancarlo Stanton (who may not see a decent pitch to hit again for the rest of the decade), and Twittaholic Logan Morrison. I envision many solo home runs in Stanton's future, for the basepaths will be just as empty as the seats in Miami's shiny new baseball stadium. The mass exodus began during the summer when the losses began to mount and it became clear the Marlins weren't going to contend for a playoff spot. Hanley Ramirez took his fading star to Hollywood. Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante packed their bags for Motown. A struggling Gaby Sanchez got dumped on the Pittsburgh Pirates. After the season ended Heath Bell was banished to the Arizona desert. Ozzie Guillen got canned. Then, to top it all off, the Fish pulled off a fire sale that rivaled Boston's late summer housecleaning. Miami jettisoned its remaining stars--Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, and Mark Buehrle--north of the border in a blockbuster 12-player trade that rocked the baseball world and ignited a media firestorm. It's no wonder Stanton wants to be traded, too.

Marlins Buy Buehrle

Since when are the Miami Marlins the New York Yankees?

After a decade of penny-pinching, years of waving good-bye to franchise players like Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell, Dontrelle Willis, Miguel Cabrera, and Dan Uggla, the Miami just added a trio of free agents for the price of the entire Yankee payroll.  The Marlins, the same Marlins who paid their entire team as much as the Steinbrenners paid Alex Rodriguez last year, are no longer little fish in a big pond.   The former kings of one year rentals like Carlos Delgado and Ivan Rodriguez are suddenly gobbling up free agents left and right, transforming themselves into aggressive buyers willing to open up their checkbooks at the drop of a hat.  They remind me of a poker player that's been quiet all night, saving his chips and biding his time until he pounces and goes all in.

Funny how a shiny new ballpark can change everything.

The first to arrive was Heath Bell, who's quietly been one of the most dependable closer in the game over the past three years for the Padres.  Even though he's already 34, closers with consistent track records of success tend to age well (see Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman).  He came at half the price of Jonathan Papelbon after posting ERAs roughly half of what incumbent fireman Leo Nunez, who always seemed miscast as a closer in the first place and might be better suited to eighth inning duties, put up from '09-'11.  Make no mistake, adding Bell significantly improves Miami's bullpen for the next three seasons.

Then they went out and locked up reigning NL batting champ Jose Reyes for six years (without spending Carl Crawford/Jayson Werth money), even though they already had an elite shortstop in Hanley Ramirez.  The switch-hitting speedster gives the offense a dynamic catalyst at the top of the order and allows HanRam to hit out of the 3 or 4 hole, where he can take advantage of his power and run produing skills.  Unfortunately, Ramirez has been acting like a five year old who doesn't want to share by resisting a move to third base, meaning the Marlins might have to trade him and forfeit what could potentially be the best left side of the infield in all of baseball.  Worst of all, they'd be trading him while his value is at an all time low and probably wouldn't receive equal value in return.

And now, just two days after adding Reyes the Marlins bolstered their starting rotation by signing southpaw Mark Buehrle for four years and $58 million.  In Buehrle they get one of the most consistent hurlers in the game, a four time All-Star who's topped 10 wins, 30 starts and 200 innings in each of the past eleven years.  As a nice bonus, he also fields his position well as evidenced by three straight Gold Gloves and one heck of a webgem on last year's Opening Day, but more importantly he adds a lefty arm to a staff dominated by righthanders Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, Chris Volstad, and Javier Vazquez if he chooses to return.

So after committing nearly $200 million to these three free agents over the past few weeks the Marlins are officially out of the running for Albert Pujols, but then again I never thought they were serious about employing his services for the remainder of the decade anyways.  The rumor was more of a publicity stunt designed to sustain the high from inking Reyes, but with the way Miami has been making it rain this offseason it seemed possible that they might be crazy enough to pull it off. For now, they seem likely to make a serious postseason run in 2012 and have a good chance to make the playoffs for the first time since 2003.