Boston's Former Cardinals Crash and Burn

Joe Kelly will try to figure it out in the minors (Yahoo Sports)

With Joe Kelly's demotion to Triple-A Pawtucket today, the Red Sox have officially lost last summer's trade with the St. Louis Cardinals--the one that sent John Lackey packing to St. Louis in return for Joe Kelly and Allen Craig, neither of whom are currently on the big league roster..

In fact, I think it might be the worst trade Ben Cherington has ever made. Kelly and Craig have both been massive busts in Boston, while Lackey has continued to be an effective starter for the Cards. Kelly has not developed into a viable starting pitcher, much less the Cy Young winner he predicted he'd be. With a 5.67 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, he's been one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball this year. At this point, his best bet is to take his heater to the bullpen, where he may enjoy a renaissance a la Andrew Miller.

As for Craig, he has yet to rediscover the stroke that made him a .300 hitter and one of the league's best RBI men. Not even Fenway Park could help restore the former All-Star's bat, as he's hit a meager .130/.235/.192 since joining the Red Sox. His age, injury history, non-existent production, and costly price tag (he'll earn $11 million next year) makes him all but untradeable.

Meanwhile, Lackey has continued to thrive in St. Louis. He faded down the stretch last year but has bounced back strong this year, posting a 3.41 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 3.14 K/BB ratio. He's been one of the most reliable starters for the first-place Cardinals, leading the staff in innings pitched and helping pick up the slack in Adam Wainwright's absence. Even at 36, he shows no signs of slowing down.

At the time, trading a veteran starter in his mid-30s for a hard-throwing hurler in his mid-20s made plenty of sense, but taking on Craig's costly contract and expecting him to bounce back proved to be too much of a gamble. Boston really could have used Lackey in its rotation this year, and had absolutely no need for Craig given its already-crowded outfield situation when he arrived. Now it looks like the Sox are stuck with him, unless they can convince somebody that regular playing time will rejuvenate the soon-to-be 31 year-old's bat.

I still think Kelly has a future as a shut-down reliever, but that's not as valuable as a reliable starting pitcher, especially given the struggles of Boston's rotation this year. This trade is just one of many reasons why the Red Sox have underperformed this year, but it's now clear that they'd be better off had Cherington never done this deal.

Reviewing Carpenter's Contract Extension

The Cardinals locked up Carpenter (StL Sports Page)

The St. Louis Cardinals rewarded third baseman Matt Carpenter for his tremendous 2013 season with a backloaded six-year, $52 million extension that includes an 18.5 million dollar option for 2020, Carpenter's age 34 season.

Carpenter's contract comes off the heels of an MVP-caliber season in which he hit .318/.392/.481 and led the majors with 126 runs, 199 hits and 55 doubles, all while playing second base and batting leadoff for the NL Champion Cardinals. He was an All-Star for the first time, won his first Silver Slugger award and finished fourth in the MVP race behind Andrew McCutchen, Paul Goldschmidt and teammate Yadier Molina.

It goes without saying that if he can be anything close to the seven win player he was a year ago, St. Louis is going to get a massive bargain, especially in the short-run. Like Mike Trout, Carpenter debuted in 2011, made the league minimum in both 2012 and 2013, and will make just $1 million in 2014. Carpenter's salary escalates every year after that, but he'll still get only $3.5 million in 2015, 6.25 million in 2016 and $9.75 million in 2017. He won't make eight figures until 2018, by which point he'll be 32.

And for those under the impression that Carpenter's breakout was the mere byproduct of an age 27 fluke season, remember that his .294/.365/.463 line in 2012 wasn't far off last year's rate stats, not to mention 26 percent better than average when adjusted for league and park. It's also worth noting that from 2012 to 2013 his walk rate remained exactly the same, his BABiP rose just seven points and his Iso actually decreased by six points.

His main improvement was cutting his strikeout rate by nearly one-third, which explains the uptick in his contact rate and batting average. He scratched out a few infield hits and smashed more line drives, which means he'll probably bat closer to .300 than .320, but there's nothing else in his batted ball or plate discipline data that suggests big-time regression is on the horizon (even though ZiPS is projecting him to bat .272/.351.,413 next year, which feels way too pessimistic).

So even if Carpenter never again reaches the lofty heights of his stellar 2013, he still figures to be pretty good. I think his numbers are going to look very similar to those of Dustin Pedroia (whose 2008 MVP campaign is almost indistinguishable from Carpenter's 2013) or Martin Prado. Translation: the Redbirds will get their money's worth.

Champions

After finishing last in their division a year ago, Boston is number one (LATimes)

For the third time in ten years and eighth time in franchise history, the Boston Red Sox are World Series champions.

They made it official with last night's 6-1 win over the St. Louis Cardinals, a relatively stress-free game that was almost anti-climactic after the string of tight games that preceded it. Boston scored early and often in this one, jumping all over rookie Michael Wacha, who had been all but untouchable this postseason until last night, when he left in the fourth and suffered his first October loss. Shane Victorino--the hero of Game 6 in the ALCS--delivered a huge bases-clearing double in the bottom of the third to make it 3-0 Red Sox. The next inning saw Boston score three more runs on a solo home run by Stephen Drew, then two-out RBI singles from Victorino and Mike Napoli after Lance Lynn replaced Wacha.

The Cardinals had plenty of chances to stage a comeback, but simply couldn't come up with any key hits. They went 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position and left nine men on base; two in the second, fourth, fifth, and three in the seventh (ouch). Sometimes it was bad luck--balls scorched right at Red Sox fielders who, had they been a few feet to either side, would not have made the play. Instead, they snagged these screaming liners for hard-luck outs. But when you hit .330 with runners in scoring position during the regular season, as the Cardinals did, your luck is going to run out at some point. It just happened at the worst possible time.

The Redbirds' last real chance to do damage was the top of the seventh, when they had a faltering John Lackey on the ropes. Lackey had been getting himself into and out of trouble all night long, but St. Louis finally got on the board when Carlos Beltran (who else?) singled Daniel Descalso home with two outs. A wild pitch and walk to Matt Holliday followed, loading the bases and driving Lackey from the game to a roaring applause. That brought up Allen Craig, who had already singled twice--including a rocket off the Monster--and was looking suddenly dangerous at the plate. He was unable to get the big hit here though, grounding out against Junichi Tazawa to end the frame.

The Cardinals, utterly defeated, did not manage another baserunner the rest of the night. They went down 1-2-3 versus Brandon Workman in the eighth and were no match for Koji Uehara, who fanned Matt Carpenter to end the game and launch the World Series victory party, one that Fenway Park had not experienced since 1918.

The series MVP was David Ortiz of course, though there was certainly a case to be made that he should've shared it with Jon Lester. Ortiz was the dominant offensive force in this series, reaching base in nine consecutive at-bats at one point and batting an otherworldly .688/.760/1.188. He instilled so much fear in Mike Matheny and Cardinals pitchers alike that he was walked four times--three intentionally--in Game 6. But Lester, who won Games 1 and 5 by allowing just one earned run, also deserves his share of credit. With Clay Buchholz hurting and Jake Peavy ineffective, Lester needed to be at his very best (especially against Adam Wainwright), and he was, racking up 15 Ks against one walk in a pair of masterful starts.

And so because of Big Papi, Lester, and others, the Red Sox--the weirdos with the beardos--are champions of the world. At this point there's not a whole lot that can be said about them that hasn't been said already. There was a different hero every night, it seemed; Napoli in Game 1, Jonny Gomes in Game 4, David Ross in Game 5 and Victorino in Game 6. The pitching, minus Peavy and a few hiccups from Craig Breslow, was stellar. Their defense was pretty good too, much sharper than the Cardinals who were done in by their own miscues on multiple occasions. John Farrell made his share of head-scratching moves (Letting Workman hit? preferring Gomes over Daniel Nava?), but for the most part he pushed the right buttons even when his strategies seemed unconventional (using Lackey in relief, sticking with a slumping Drew at short). He clearly outmaneuvered Matheny, who rode his starters too long and did not deploy his devastating bullpen as well as he should have.

In the end, the Red Sox were simply the better team. They got the big hits when they needed them, made the big pitches to get out of jams, and made dazzling plays in the field. They capitalized on more opportunities than St. Louis did. The best team won. There's really nothing more to say.

Game 2: Missed Opportunities

Gomes' throw gets past Salty as Pete Kozma scores the tying run (NYTimes)

Game 2 of the World Series felt very much like one of the ALCS games, which is to say it was a pitching duel decided by a handful of key plays/mistakes. After scoring eight runs in Game 1 Boston's bats went quiet, mustering just four hits off St. Louis. They were unable to do much of anything against Michael Wacha, the Cardinals' rookie who did not look the least bit intimidated in his first World Series start. John Lackey was every bit as good, but his final stat line doesn't quite bear that out because the Red Sox bullpen, so infallible throughout Boston's postseason run, let him down.

Whereas in Game 1 Boston went up 5-0 in the blink of an eye, Game 2 saw the Cardinals strike first. Matt Holliday, whose solo homer was the extent of St. Louis's scoring in Game 1, missed another dinger by about three feet when he tripled into the Triangle to lead off the fourth. Two batters later he scored on Yadier Molina's RBI groundout, giving the Cardinals their first lead of the series.

In the bottom half of the frame it looked like Boston would answer right back after Dustin Pedroia led off with a ringing double. David Ortiz followed with a five-pitch walk, setting the stage for Mike Napoli to deliver another huge hit. Instead, Napoli bounced into a 6-4-3 double play that all but snuffed out the Red Sox rally. Pedroia advanced to third on the play but was stranded there when Jonny Gomes popped out to end the inning.

The score remained 1-to-nothing until the bottom of the sixth, when Wacha ran into trouble in his third time through the order. With one out Dustin Pedroia walked, bringing up Ortiz as the potential go-ahead run. Wacha pitched to Big Papi carefully, running the count full. But the payoff pitch was a mistake, and Ortiz blasted it over the Green Monster for his second home run of the series and 17th of his postseason career.

The lead was short-lived, however, for the seventh inning was when the Red Sox fell apart. The inning started well enough--Lackey was at 80 pitches and, after striking out Allen Craig on three pitches, still looked sharp. The slide began when David Freese battled Lackey to a full count, then took the eighth pitch of the AB for a walk. Lackey got two strikes on the next better (Jon Jay) as well, but by now he was clearly running out of steam and was once again unable to finish off the hitter. Jay roped a single into right, sending Freese to second and Lackey back into the Boston dugout. The Fenway Faithful, who for three years despised Lackey as much as any sports fans are capable of hating one of their own, rose to cheer their redeemed hurler as he departed the mound.

With three lefties due up, John Farrell summoned southpaw Craig Breslow, who had not allowed an earned run in his seven innings of postseason relief duty. Mike Matheny made a move of his own, inserting Game 1 goat Pete Kozma to run for Freese. Then the Cardinals, who stole fewer bases than every team except for the slow-footed Tigers during the regular season, pulled off a double steal. Breslow's pitch was too high for Jarrod Saltalamacchia to even attempt a throw. The hitter, Daniel Descalso, proceeded to take an incredibly close 3-2 pitch for ball four and load the bases.

That brought up Matt Carpenter, who lifted the first pitch into shallow left field, where Gomes caught it and fired home. His throw was wide and the ball got past Salty, who tried to stretch for it rather than come off the plate and gather it. Breslow fielded the ball and promptly whipped it to third, hoping to nail Jay as he tried to take the extra base. The throw was high and bounced into the stands, an error that allowed Jay to score, moved Descalso to third and gave St. Louis the lead again.

Incredibly, Farrell did not pull Breslow from the game right away. He let him stay in to face Carlos Beltran, who smacked a run-scoring single. That made it 4-2 Cardinals, and Breslow, mercifully, was done for the evening. Junichi Tazawa came in and got Holliday to ground out to end the inning, but the damage had been done.

So the Red Sox, who had nearly a 75 percent chance of winning the game after Craig's strikeout, had suffered a complete reversal of fortune. They now had a 78 percent chance of losing the game, all because they didn't use their best reliever--the best reliever in baseball this year--until the ninth inning, by which point their win probability was down to a mere 7.6 percent. Koji Uehara did his job of course, keeping the deficit at two runs by setting down the Cardinals in order. But Boston was unable to come back against Trevor Rosenthal, who struck out the side (Gomes, Salty, and pinch-hitter Daniel Nava) to seal the win for the Cards.

For Boston, the loss was disappointing for several reasons. Not only did the Red Sox waste Lackey's gem of a start, but they also missed out on a big opportunity. Had they held on to win, they would have left Boston with a commanding 2-0 lead--teams that win the first two games go on to win the Series more than 82 percent of the time. Furthermore, they could have potentially forced Matheny into making some hard decisions, like starting Adam Wainwright on short rest in Game 4 and/or using him or Wacha out of the 'pen to prolong the series. But with the guarantee of at least a fifth game, Wainwright will start on normal rest against Jon Lester.

Now, the Red Sox will have to rely on Jake Peavy to win Game 3 tonight, and I can't say I'm too optimistic about that with the memory of his train-wreck start against the Tigers still fresh in my mind. It's also hard to feel good about a guy who has a postseason ERA on the wrong side of 10, small sample size (four starts) be damned. To be fair, Peavy did pitch well against Tampa Bay in the ALDS and has flourished at Busch Stadium in the past, so there is some hope for a bounce back performance, especially since Boston's bats should show more life against Joe Kelly. But the way the Red Sox have been hitting over the past few weeks, there's no guarantee of that.

One Game Away

The Boston Red Sox pulled to within one win of the World Series with their 4-3 win over the Detroit Tigers last night.

Mike Napoli, whose home run off Justin Verlander was the only run in Game 3, got the Sox on the board with an absolute bomb to dead center that traveled 445 feet. Well-placed hits combined with Detroit's shaky defense led to Boston scoring two more runs in the inning. Napoli, who went 3-for-4 in the game, scampered home on a wild pitch in the third to make Boston's lead four runs.

That was the extent of Boston's scoring in this one, and it turned out to be just enough to withstand the Tigers' gradual comeback (three runs--one in the fifth, sixth, and seventh). Jon Lester left the game with one out in the sixth after putting runners on first and second. Junichi Tazawa allowed one run to come in on Bryan Pena's RBI single before getting Austin Jackson to ground into an inning-ending double play.

Tazawa got another crucial double play the next inning after Jose Iglesias and Torii Hunter singled to put runners on the corners with nobody out. In what was probably the biggest moment of the game, Tazawa traded a run for two outs when Miguel Cabrera bounced into a rally-killing DP. That made the score 4-3, and that's the way it stayed thanks to Craig Breslow and Koji Uehara. The dynamic duo recorded the final seven outs without permitting a Tiger to reach base.

The Red Sox nearly added some much-needed insurance in the top of the ninth after getting two men into scoring position with only one out, but both Shane Victorino and Dustin Pedroia failed to deliver the big hit against Al Albuerquerque (probably the second-most fun baseball name to say--behind Jarrod Saltalamacchia, of course). Instead of giving Uehara some breathing room it went down as another missed opportunity by the Bosox, who've stranded a small army on the basepaths going back to the last two games of the Tampa Bay series. It's been incredibly frustrating to watch the best offense in baseball doing such a poor job of getting hits with RISP, but luckily they've been scoring just enough runs to win (all three W's in this series have been of the one-run variety). Obviously a win counts the same whether the score is 1-0 or 10-0, but I'd really like to see Boston's bats do more damage.

After an off-day today, the series will resume at Fenway Park tomorrow with Clay Buchholz and likely AL Cy Young winner Max Scherzer squaring off.

Over in the National League, the St. Louis Cardinals have a chance to polish off the Los Angeles Dodgers at home tonight. But in order to do that, they'll have to overcome Clayton Kershaw, only the best pitcher on the planet in the year 2013. The Redbirds will counter with Michael Wacha, their 22 year-old rookie phenom. Wacha may not be a household name yet, but don't underestimate him. He surrendered one run in his first two postseason starts combined after posting a 2.78 ERA during the regular season. Clearly LA has the edge here, but Wacha's not as overmatched as one might think and could surprise us all by outdueling Kershaw.

St. Louis Surging

The Cardinals can do no wrong

On paper, the St. Louis Cardinals were not baseball's best team coming into the season. Heck, most people didn't even pick them to win their own division, which got decidedly more competitive with the Houston Astros playing in the American League West this year.

It's surprising, then, that the Redbirds are the MLB's winning-est team (41-22) entering play today. They've held sole possession of first place in the NL Central since the last day in April, exceeding expectations thanks to depth, timely hitting, stellar starting pitching and strong defense.

What the Cardinals lack in power (they've outhomered only four teams so far) they make up for by raking with runners in scoring position. The Cards have batted a collective .339/.410/.457 in such situations. If sustained over the course of the season, that performance would set MLB records for highest batting average and OBP.

But even taking expected regression into account, St. Louis still sports a very dangerous lineup. The Cards fielded one of the league's best offensive units last year (without Albert Pujols, no less), so it should come as no surprise that they rank at or near the top of the league in most offensive categories again this season. St. Louis leads the National League in scoring, runs per game, batting average, and on-base percentage.

The lineup doesn't have the star power of a Miguel Cabrera or Robinson Cano. Instead, it's a balanced group of veterans and professional hitters. The biggest and most pleasant surprise has been Matt Carpenter's blossoming into an All-Star. Yadier Molina has evolved into the NL's answer to Joe Mauer while outplaying last year's MVP Buster Posey (Molina's .354 batting average and 19 doubles top the NL). 36 year-old Carlos Beltran brings the power with 14 home runs and 42 RBI. Allen Craig's compensating for his power outage by leading the team in RBI. Third baseman David Freese finally emerging emerged from the depths of his painfully slow start with a 19-game hitting streak. Middle infielder Daniel Descalso and slugging first baseman Matt Adams have been excellent coming off the bench but haven't played much because the team has enjoyed unusual health. Freese is the only starter to spend time on the Disabled List.

What's more impressive is that St. Louis has been an offensive juggernaut even though its best hitter (Matt Holliday) hasn't been himself. Pete Kozma--Rafael Furcal's replacement at shortstop--hasn't done much offensively. Jon Jay's struggles caused manager Mike Matheny to drop him out of the leadoff spot in favor of on-base machine Matt Carpenter.

As potent as the offense has been, the starting rotation has been every bit as incredible. Cardinals' starters have compiled a 2.73 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 3.57 K/BB ratio despite missing Chris Carpenter (out since late February), Jaime Garcia (done for the season) and Jake Westbrook (out since May 9th but expected to return by the end of the week).

It all starts with staff ace Adam Wainwright, now fully recovered from the Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2011 season. He's pitching even better than he did in the two seasons before his operation, when he finished in the top three of Cy Young voting both years. Lance Lynn has improved in his second season as a full-time starting pitcher and probably deserves to make the All-Star team again. NL ERA leader Shelby Miller is well on his way to winning Rookie of the Year unless Yasiel Puig keeps hitting like Barry Bonds. Rookie call-up Tyler Lyons has pitched very well since Garcia was lost for the season.

The Cardinals' lone weakness so far has been unreliable middle relief. The bullpen's been mediocre, allowing too many baserunners (1.40 WHIP) and runs (4.33 ERA). That said, Trevor Rosenthal and Edward Mujica might be the best 8th and 9th inning combo around. The 23 year-old Rosenthal recovered from a shaky April and hasn't allowed an earned run since April 24th. Mujica is proving himself to be one of baseball's premier closers since replacing Mitchell Boggs (who replaced the injured Jason Motte) midway through April. He's a perfect 18-for-18 in save opportunities and his 0.61 WHIP leads all relievers.

In addition to receiving plenty of run support, Cardinals pitchers have also benefited from steady defense behind them. St. Louis is not a quick team by any means (only the Cincinnati Reds have stolen fewer bases) but its fielders don't make many mistakes on the balls they do reach. The surehanded Cardinals have made fewer errors than every team not named the Baltimore Orioles (who had a trio of Gold Glove defenders at premium positions last year). Molina--the anchor--is fast cementing his status as one of the best defensive catchers of all time; when he retires we'll probably be talking about him the same way we talk about Johnny Bench and Ivan Rodriguez.

On the whole, it seems that the Cards have been playing over their heads a bit in the early going. They're definitely good enough to make the playoffs, but there's enough room for regression (Miller, Carpenter, Molina, the RISP numbers, health) that I feel confident saying they won't maintain their 105-win pace all year. I don't think they'l have baseball's best record when the dust settles, either (I'm feeling Atlanta or Cincy), but they should be able to keep it up for a few more weeks at least. Expect them to continue their winning ways with 12 of their next 15 games against the Mets, Marlins, Cubs, and Astros.