Making Sense of Colorado's Crazy Trade

Dickerson has far more value to a team than McGee (Fox Sports)

It's been two weeks, and I'm still trying to make sense of the Corey Dickerson for Jake McGee exchange. Given how smart front offices have become, it still blows my mind when they make obviously one-sided trades like this one, or last winter's Doug Fister and Jason Heyward trades.

Only on the most basic level does this trade make any sense for Colorado. The Rockies have an abundance of hitting and need pitching. They had a crowded outfield and a terrible bullpen (terrible doesn't even begin to describe how bad it was). So they traded an outfielder for a pretty good reliever. Okay, makes sense.

Except that it doesn't at all. At least for the Rockies.

For the Rays, a team perpetually short on offense, this trade makes all the sense in the world. Tampa Bay ranked second-to-last in the AL in runs scored last year, largely because its outfielders combined for just 56 home runs, 175 RBI, and a .258/.327/.420 batting line. With a collective OPS+ of 100, Rays outfielders provided league average production at best.

Dickerson, however, has been well above average the last two years, posting a 141 OPS+ in 2014 followed by a 118 OPS+ last year. After leaving Coors Field (the best hitter's park in baseball) for Tropicana Field (one of the worst), he's not going to come close to matching his .309/.354/.556 line from 2014-2015, but he's still a solidly above average corner outfielder who's not even 27 yet. Tampa Bay would have been better off going after someone from a less extreme environment, but Dickerson still represents a clear upgrade in an outfield that saw way too much of David DeJesus and Steven Souza last year.

And it's not like the Rays gave up much to get him, either. Relievers are cheap and plentiful, which makes them expendable. Any failed starter can find second life as a reliever. Hard-hitting, in-their-prime outfielders are a rarity, however, especially these days. McGee is good, but he's going to be 30 in August and was hurt last year. His value may never be higher than it is right now.

Which is why the Rays were smart to move him. The timing made sense. For the Rockies, however, this was probably the worst time for them to trade Dickerson. He's not even arbitration-eligible yet and is still under team control for four more years, plus he's coming off an injury-riddled season in which he missed almost 100 games and was worth only 0.5 bWAR. Had they waited for him to rebuild his value a bit, they could have gotten more for him, like a starting pitcher (Colorado could really use one of those).

While dumb, this trade at least would have been more defensible had the Rockies been good, as sometimes it's necessary to sacrifice something valuable to address one of your weaknesses. But Colorado's entire pitching staff is a weakness, and 60 innings from Mr. McGee won't change that. Bad teams don't need ace relievers, because by the time they get in the game the score's already been decided. They need good, young starting pitchers and position players they can build around. The bullpen is often the last piece of the puzzle, and one that can be cobbled together on the cheap (never pay for saves).

McGee's going to be a free agent in two years, and nobody seriously expects Colorado to contend by then. They've endured five straight losing seasons and there's no light at the end of the tunnel, not until they're able to build what passes for a major league-caliber starting rotation. Dickerson could have helped them do that, but now he's gone.

Longoria Losing Power and Patience

Longoria's suffered two down years in a row when he should be in his prime (TBO)

For the first six years of his career, Evan Longoria was the best position player in baseball. Despite losing over a year's worth of games to injury, his combination of elite glovework at third base and a top-shelf bat made him a superstar when healthy.

Then 2014 happened. Injuries weren't the issue, as Longoria played all 162 games for the first time, but his production cratered. He'd been so good up to that point, though, and he was only 28, so it looked like nothing more than an off-year. Surely Tampa Bay's $100 million third baseman would bounce back.

He didn't. His numbers improved slightly, but his 2015 was essentially the same as his 2014. Once again he was healthy, appearing in all but two games, so injury-woes were not to blame. That made two down years in a row for Longoria, in what were supposed to be his prime years.

I don't have to tell you that unless there's a career-altering injury involved, great athletes typically don't get dramatically worse during their late 20s. Oftentimes, many get better. They're still young enough to be in their physical primes, but experienced enough to have acclimated to major league competition. These are supposed to be an athlete's greatest seasons.

For Evan Longoria, they have been his worst.

Longoria has had a weird career. When he debuted at 22 in 2008, he was mostly a finished product, winning Rookie of the Year unanimously and blasting 27 homers. He only improved from there, looking like a surefire MVP for years to come as he entered his mid-20s. All he had to do was take his game a little bit higher.

He never did. Injuries caused him to miss 117 games between 2011 and 2012, his age-25 and -26 seasons. He came back strong in 2013, playing 160 games and finishing sixth in the AL MVP vote, but his production had plateaued. Longoria was still a great player, just not quite the dominant force he seemed poised to become.

Over the last couple years, however, Longoria has slipped from a great player to a merely good one, declining in all facets of the game. The two-time Gold Glove winner hasn't won since 2010, with metrics now suggesting he's much closer to an average fielder than the vacuum cleaner he was previously. His baserunning has also fallen off considerably. While never a burner, he was an asset on the basepaths through the first three years of his career, stealing 31 bases in 36 attempts and providing a full win's worth of value over an average runner. In the five years since, he's managed just 14 steals and been four runs worse than average on the bases, providing positive value with his legs in just one year.

Defense and speed peak early, however, so it's not surprising that Longoria's lost some of both as he's advanced into his late 20s. What's concerning is how he's become a league average hitter after previously producing like David Ortiz.

How did Longoria fall so far, so fast? A major red flag is his plummeting walk rate, which has declined every year since 2011. Once a very patient hitter, he's now drawing free passes at a roughly league average rate. Longoria's chasing, and hitting, more pitches outside the zone than ever before, which explains both his eroding walk rates and hard-hit frequencies. He's swinging more in general, too, which wouldn't be a bad thing if he hadn't started hacking at so many non-strikes.

It could be that Longoria's new aggression is in response to seeing more first pitch strikes than ever before. Part of that's due to the larger strike zone, but it's also likely that pitchers have recognized Longoria's willingness to let the first offering go by. In 2015 the league hit just .225/.265/.344 after falling behind 0-1. Longoria isn't much better, batting .234/.277/.388 for his career after first pitch strikes. Since he's seeing more of those, it follows that his numbers have nosedived. And since he's on the defensive more often, he has to chase more often, thus explaining the loss of patience.

What's really troubling, though, is Longoria's loss of power. After averaging 33 home runs per 162 games with a .237 ISO through his first six seasons, he's averaged just 22 with a .158 ISO over the past two. His doubles were down too, from 41 per 162 games to 31, so it's not like he was just getting unlucky with his HR/FB rates (though those are down too).

The reason for Longoria's diminished power is simple (and one I alluded to earlier); he's not hitting the ball as hard as he used to. The only time he had a worse hard-hit % than he did the last two years was in his injury-hampered 2011. Meanwhile, his soft contact rate nearly doubled from 2013 to 2015, and his medium contact rate is up as well (the only time it was higher; 2009). This data, along with his rising pop-up rates, suggest he's not squaring up the ball as well as he used to. That's a side effect of hacking, to be sure, but he also might be losing strength and bat speed as he ages.

Longoria's career seems to be following the same path as David Wright's. Both peaked early and were at their best in their mid-20s, looking like future Hall of Famers. Then their performance started dropping off in their late 20s, because of injuries with Wright and the reasons outlined above with Longoria. Wright has yet to recapture the consistent greatness he exhibited through his first five seasons, and it seems unlikely that Longoria--who just turned 30 last month--will either.

The Rays' Resilience

Archer and co. have pitched the Rays into contention (ISportsWeb)

Before Opening Day, the Red Sox and Blue Jays were the two teams most favored to win the AL East. Nobody gave the Rays, who finished 2014 with a losing record and recently lost Ben Zobrist, David Price, and the best manager in baseball (Joe Maddon) much of a chance. While their pitching looked great, their offense, or severe lack thereof, appeared to be a fatal shortcoming, and nobody knew what to expect from rookie skipper Kevin Cash. For the first time since becoming a powerhouse in 2008, people were picking them to finish last in their division.

Now, nearly halfway through the season, they are tops in the AL East. This isn't merely a recent development, as they've been in first or second place every day since April 24th. Until this week they were red-hot, too, having completed a torrid three-week stretch in which they went 15-5.

With each win and every day atop the standings, Tampa Bay continues to defy the pundits who forecast mediocrity for them in 2015. They've fashioned the third-best record (42-34) in the American League despite scoring just 18 more runs than they've allowed, a run differential that suggests their talent is closer to that of a .500 team than a division leader. Their record also equals that of the Los Angeles Dodgers, the team with the highest payroll in baseball at approximately $275 million--or $200 million more than the 28th-ranked Rays are spending this season.

This is nothing new, as Tampa Bay has been assembling terrific teams without much cash or offensive firepower for years now. Their budgetary constraints and pitching-friendly ballpark have prevented them from building the type of potent, star-studded lineups found elsewhere in their division, and this year is no different in that regard. The Rays rank third-to-last in the American League in runs scored, which corresponds to their bottom-five rank in doubles, average, slugging, and OPS.

Their best hitter and franchise cornerstone, Evan Longoria, is mired in another disappointing season, and because of injuries to James Loney and Desmond Jennings he's not had much help. Were it not for the unexpected production of Steve Souza (a team-high 14 home runs), Logan Forsythe (.835 OPS) and Joey Butler (.845 OPS), the Rays would undoubtedly rank last in scoring. Tampa Bay has compensated for its deficiencies at the dish with aggressive baserunning and sound defense, as the Rays rank second among AL teams in stolen bases and fielding percentage.

Tampa Bay's real strength, as expected, has been their pitching, which boasts the lowest ERA in the Junior Circuit. This comes as something of a surprise given that two of their best starters, Matt Moore and Alex Cobb, haven't thrown a pitch for them in 2015. Cobb, who underwent Tommy John surgery in May, won't be coming back (neither will Drew Smyly, who managed just three starts before needing shoulder surgery). but Moore, who had the same procedure last year, is due back this week. An All-Star and Cy Young candidate the last time he was fully healthy, Moore figures to bolster what has been the second-stingiest rotation to date.

In their absence, Chris Archer has emerged a legitimate Cy Young candidate. He currently leads the American League in ERA (2.01), WHIP (0.95), and ERA+ (194). The 26 year-old has taken the leap after a pair of good but hardly-great seasons, displaying improved command (trimming a full batter off his career walk rate) and harnessing his elite strikeout potential (10.7 K/9) in his third full season. Jake Odorizzi was also in the midst of a breakout season (2.47 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) before landing on the disabled list with a strained oblique. The Rays are eagerly awaiting his return, which should be soon.

The rotation's true X factor has been Nate Karns, who had all of five big league starts under his belt prior to this season. Thrust into the rotation because of injuries, he's already tripled that number this year. More important than the quantity of his innings has been the quality, which has been better than anyone could have expected: his 3.28 ERA is nearly half of what his career mark was coming into the season.

Tampa's shutdown bullpen has been every bit as impressive, with its top five relievers in terms of appearances all flashing sub-three ERAs. A sixth, Jake McGee, has been stellar since making his way back from offseason elbow surgery, re-asserting himself as the team's top fireman with a 1.69 ERA and absurd 24/1 K/BB ratio. The former closer has been invaluable as the setup man for Brad Boxberger, who had just three saves to his name coming into the year but has already racked up 20. Thus, on the rare occasions when Rays starters struggle, their formidable bullpen is capable of stopping the bleeding and giving Tampa's offense a chance to climb back into the game.

So with Loney, Moore, Odorizzi, and John Jaso due back in the coming weeks, the Rays should enjoy a considerable boost from their midseason reinforcements. Odorizzi and Moore will make a great rotation even better, while Jaso and Loney should provide offensive upgrades over their placeholders (Rene Rivera, Jake Elmore) behind the plate and at first base. So although there are three teams within two games of Tampa Bay, it's possible the Rays won't need to add much at the trade deadline.

It's also possible that, as well as the Rays have played thus far, their best is yet to come.

Ben Zobrist: Baseball's Most Underrated Player

Cabrera, Verlander, Zobrist? (Chat Sports)

Since the start of the 2009 season, Miguel Cabrera has been the most valuable player in baseball. No surprise there, seeing as how he's hit .331/.411/.585 (166 wRC+) during that span while averaging 36 home runs, 120 RBI, and 156 games played per year. His yearly dominance is reflected in his strong MVP showings, including two first-place finishes (neither of which were deserved due to Mike Trout's excellence), one year as runner-up, two other top-five finishes, and most recently a top-10 finish.

During that time, Justin Verlander has been the second most valuable player in baseball. Again, that makes sense, even in light of his recent demise. He was the sport's clear-cut best pitcher for a couple years, winning a Cy Young (deserving another) and an MVP as well as making five All-Star teams. They're both proven studs with huge contracts and, oh yeah, they also happen to be teammates. Cabrera is a surefire Hall of Famer at this point, and Verlander will be too if he can just play out his contract Barry Zito-style without bursting into flame. (Remind me again how Detroit hasn't won a World Series since 1984?)

Here's something I just can't wrap my head around. Baseball's third most valuable player--second most valuable position player--has been, get ready...Ben Zobrist.

Huh?

How is that possible? The lifelong Tampa Bay Ray and subject of recent trade rumors has never batted .300, tallied 170 hits, or swatted 30 home runs. He has neither scored nor knocked in 100 runs in a season. He's never stolen 25 bases. Zobrist is durable, plays good defense, and is a comfortably above average hitter (118 career wRC+), but I'm having a hard time believing he's been the best position player this side of Miguel Cabrera for the past six years.

So where is Zobrist's value coming from? Has he really been more valuable than big name stars like Robinson Cano, Adrian Beltre, and Andrew McCutchen? Those guys are MVPs. All-Stars. Gold Glove winners. Zobrist is a good player; I think we can all agree on that (he's made two All-Star teams and earned MVP votes three times). But an elite, game-changing talent? I don't think so. His most similar batter is Aaron Boone, for crying out loud (two Hall of Fame votes notwithstanding).

But while Zobrist might not be great at anything, he's good at just about everything, especially skills that tend to be undervalued. He's a deceptively good (switch-) hitter, for his numbers--while they don't jump off the page--are nevertheless impressive relative to his home ballpark. He hits for good-not-great averages (usually in the .270 range), walks a lot, and offers solid power via doubles and double-digit home run totals. His .801 OPS from 2009-2014 is really good, especially considering he plays half his games in the hitter's coffin that is Tropicana Field (unsurprisingly, his road OPS exceeds his home OPS by 32 points). He doesn't strike out a ton, either, only once exceeding 110 strikeouts for his career (Derek Jeter, by comparison, did so five times).

Zobrist isn't particularly fast but runs the bases well, and has stolen 102 bases in 137 attempts (74.4 percent success rate). He's notched double-digit steals in each of the past six seasons, nabbing as many as 24 in 2010. Zobrist has been a net positive on the bases, on par with McCutchen in terms of baserunning value, though probably not for much longer as he enters his age 34 season.

Another underrated skill of his is durability. In addition to averaging 153 games per season over the past six, Zobrist also plays a host of different positions, primarily second base. More importantly, he plays them well, albeit without the flair or regularity needed for a Gold Glove. He's a jack of all trades who can hit, field, run, and almost never takes a day off. That's pretty valuable.

So while I may not see Zobrist as one of the three (or even 10) best players in baseball, I have to acknowledge that he's a fine ballplayer in pretty much every regard, not to mention steady as they come.

Chris Carter AKA Carlos Pena

Carter hits bombs but doesn't do anything else (RantSports)

Remember the home run, whiffing, and walking machine known as Carlos Pena? The prized rookie traded off the Moneyball Oakland A's to supposedly make room for Scott Hatteberg? The same one who later emerged as an All-Star, Gold Glover, Silver Slugger, and home run champ with the Rays?

The 36 year-old free agent hasn't played since last year and is likely finished given his age and recent poor performance. But if you're a fan of Pena's and TTO players like him (Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds), fear not. One of his former teammates from Houston (what? he played for the Astros?) has taken up Pena's propensity for fanning, dingers, and low batting averages. Like Pena, he was shipped out of Oakland by Billy Beane early on in his career. Now he play's Pena's old position--first base--and wears Pena's old number--23.

His name is Chris Carter, and he is the righthanded version of Pena. Carter's numbers have been virtually identical to Pena's circa 2010-2012. In fact, Carter's 2013 is almost a dead-ringer for Pena's 2011, Pena's lone season with the beleaguered Chicago Cubs.

Pena 2011:   600 PA 497 AB 111 H 27 2B 3 3B 28 HR 80 RBI 2 SB .225/.357/.462 228 TB
Carter 2013: 585 PA 506 AB 113 H 24 2B 3 3B 29 HR 82 RBI 2 SB .223/.320/.451 228 TB

And since Opening Day 2011, their numbers are eerily similar as well:

Pena:   55 HR  166 RBI  435 K  .210/.339/.394 .733 OPS  103 OPS+  3.1 oWAR
Carter: 55 HR  148 RBI  382 K  .217/.315/.445 .761 OPS  109 OPS+  2.7 oWAR

Still toiling in mediocrity, Carter's on pace for similar numbers again this year, much like how Pena's 2011 was nearly a repeat of his 2010. Carter is what he is--a one-dimensional slugger--and has shown no willingness to cut down on his swing in hopes of sacrificing power for contact. He's currently batting below .200, but could very well wind up with 30 dingers. He's the top power source in Houston's lineup not named George Springer, and as long as he continues to bring the goods he'll remain their everyday DH.

But Pena showed how fast players of that ilk (see Jack Cust, Russell Branyan, Richie Sexson, Troy Glaus) can lose it. Once those fly balls stop leaving the yard, Carter won't have a shred of value and will be out of a job before long. Seeing as how he's in the heart of his prime at 27, that shouldn't happen for a few more years. When it does, it won't be pretty.

Until that day comes, let's appreciate Carter for what he is while we can. The rebuilding Astros might not have any better options at the moment, but it's only a matter of time before one comes along. And then Carter will be gone, long gone, like one of his many homers.

Streaky Sox Win Seventh in a Row

Lester fired seven shutout innings as Boston rolled to its seventh straight win

I swear, this Red Sox season just keeps getting crazier by the day.

A week ago, the Tampa Bay Rays completed a three-game sweep of the Sox at the Trop, extending Boston's losing streak to 10 and provoking them into a benches-clearing brawl. The Red Sox, wallowing in last place and nine games below .500, were clearly at their wit's end.

They haven't lost since. Boston took two from the Braves in Atlanta, overcoming early deficits in both games to string together their first winning streak in over two weeks. They they came back to Boston and took two more from the Braves, no small feat considering the Braves are the best team in the NL East at the moment, and that it took Boston nearly two months to win more than two games in a row.

Then Tampa Bay came to town, and with both teams itching for a fight, John Farrell's club returned the favor by sweeping three from the Rays, limiting them to just three runs in the series. After hanging tough with David Price on Friday night and ultimately walking off in extra inning on A.J. Pierzynski's triple, the Sox dominated Tampa on Saturday (7-1) and again on Sunday (4-0). They got great starts from Rubby De La Rosa and Jon Lester and beat the Rays at their own game: pitching, defense, and manufacturing runs.

Now the Rays are in last place, 10 and a half games out of first. Boston's fourth, six back of Toronto, which means their winning streak only picked up two games in the standings. Still, their in a better spot than they were a week ago, when it looked like their season might be over before Memorial Day.

Thank you, Mr. Yunel Escobar. Perhaps a fight was just what this listless, complacent-looking team needed to light a charge under them, a la Jason Varitek shoving Alex Rodriguez ten years ago.

The Sox embark on a nine-game road trip tomorrow night in Cleveland, where they stand a good chance of improving their winning streak. Like the Red Sox, the last-place Indians have been colossal disappointments this year. After that it's on to Detroit to play the always-tough Tigers, and then Baltimore. Boston should be able to win the Cleveland series with relative ease (but a sweep will be nearly impossible without Lester) and you gotta like their chances against the Orioles' mediocre pitching staff (hopefully Nelson Cruz cools off), so if they can just take one from the Tigers they'll be in pretty good shape.

Who knows? Maybe they'll sweep Cleveland, extend their winning streak to double digits, and come back to town with a winning record. Or maybe they'll drop seven out of nine. The way this season's going, anything is possible.

MLB Offseason Winners

New York put the pieces in place to make a championship run in Derek Jeter's (MSN)

Minus a few exceptions (Stephen Drew, Ervin Santana), most of the key free agents have signed and the offseason is pretty much over. So who "won" the offseason? Here are the five teams I think are most improved:

1. New York Yankees
Losing Robinson Cano didn't devastate the Yankees, who spent over half a billion dollars this winter. Not only did they land prized Japanese hurler Masahiro Tanaka to anchor the rotation, but they also added All-Stars Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran to beef up their lineup. I doubt Kelly Johnson and Brian Roberts will pan out, but they're guaranteed to get more from Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter. After winning just 85 games last year--their fewest in a non-strike season since 1992--and missing the postseason for only the second time in the past two decades, New York should win at least 90 and reclaim their status as one of the American League's elite.

2. Washington Nationals
Washington added Doug Fister to a rotation that already featured Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, and Gio Gonzalez. Better yet, they didn't give up anyone of value to get him. Nate McLouth brings depth to an outfield that gave way too many at-bats to the likes of Tyler Moore, Roger Bernadina, Steve Lombardozzi and Scott Hairston last year. Expect the Nats to win closer to 98 games (their 2012 win total) than 86 (last year's total).

3. Texas Rangers
Signing Shin-Soo Choo and trading for Prince Fielder should give their lineup some much-needed oomph, especially given the free agent departure of Nelson Cruz. They also got nine years younger at catcher by replacing A.J. Pierzynski with J.P. Arencibia, who ranks fifth among catchers in home runs over the past three years.

4. Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays needed to re-sign David Price and they did, keeping one of baseball's best rotations intact. They also improved their bullpen by signing Grant Balfour and trading for Heath Bell. David DeJesus solidifies the outfield, and first baseman James Loney will return to prove if last year's renaissance was legit.

5. Houston Astros
Houston's still going to be bad, but not as bad as they were last year. They fleeced Colorado for Dexter Fowler, improved their bullpen via Jesse Crain and Chad Qualls, plus landed a decent starting pitcher in Scott Feldman. Things can only get better for a team that lost 111 games last year.

Red Sox-Rays Breakdown

The Boston Red Sox, proud owners of the best record in the American League, are moving on to the ALCS. As for the Tampa Bay Rays, winners of four straight elimination games before last night's defeat, their season is finally over.

Just one day after losing Game 3 of the ALDS in heartbreaking fashion (to Jose Lobaton, of all people), the Red Sox rebounded to win Game 4 by a score of 3-1 and take the series. They won behind a stellar pitching performance from Jake Peavy (5 and 2/3 innings, one run allowed, no walks), great bullpen work from Craig Breslow and opportunistic offense that scraped together three runs on Joel Peralta's wild pitch, Shane Victorino's infield single and Dustin Pedroia's sacrifice fly.

Even on a night when Boston's bats were quiet (six hits--all singles) they still created lots of traffic on the bases via eight walks and a pair of hit batters.  The Sox struggled to capitalize on their many scoring opportunities, leaving 10 men on base which, had they lost, would have been incredibly frustrating. Thankfully, three runs proved to be enough.

But Boston also owes plenty of credit to the Rays, who shot themselves in the foot with numerous defensive mistakes throughout the series. When you keep gifting extra outs and baserunners to the best offense in baseball, you're going to pay the price. It was strange to see Tampa Bay's typically airtight defense unravel like that, and you have to wonder if the Rays would have another game to play tomorrow had they been able to execute in the field.

Then again, it's not entirely fair to pin their first round exit solely on the miscues of Wil Myers, David DeJesus, and co. Tampa's vaunted starting rotation tanked, with Matt Moore and David Price stinking up the joint in Boston and Jeremy Hellickson lasting just six batters into Game 4. But even if they had pitched better, Tampa Bay still would have been hard-pressed to win given struggles at the dish. The Rays scored 12 times in the four games, primarily because they got next to nothing from their three best hitters. Myers went 1-for-16 with a .243 OPS, Evan Longoria did nothing outside of his three-run homer in Game 3 and Ben Zobrist had just two hits in the series.

The bottom line is that everything that could go wrong for Tampa Bay did go wrong, all at the worst possible time. Their top hitters slumped, their aces got shelled, and their fielders made costly errors. Even Joe Maddon, a tactical genius and probably the smartest manager in baseball, made some questionable moves (such as riding Price too long in Game 2 or letting Fernando Rodney anywhere near these ballgames). But that's the downside of playoff baseball and small sample sizes in general. Every mistake is magnified. There's no margin for error.

While it's true the Rays didn't do themselves any favors, it's also important to remember that the better team won. The Red Sox were clearly the superior team over the course of the regular season, and they proved that again here in the ALDS. Boston didn't commit any errors. Every starter made it into the sixth inning. The bullpen allowed just two earned runs in 11 innings of work. Their lineup scored 26 runs in four games against one of the best pitching staffs in baseball and did so with only two home runs (both off the bat of David Ortiz in Game 2). The Sox, successful in six of their seven stolen base attempts (with the lone CS coming on a botched hit-and-run), were smart and aggressive on the basepaths.

Boston is a ballclub that can hurt you in a lot of ways. Whoever wins Game 5 in Oakland tomorrow night will find that out soon enough.

Red Sox Rock Rays Again

The Red Sox beat the Tampa Bay Rays again yesterday to take a commanding 2-0 Division Series lead.

The slugging Sox, fresh off scoring 12 runs the day before, got to David Price early and often. Boston scored two in the first, two more in the third, then pushed across one run each in the fourth and fifth.

It was a generous showing of run support for John Lackey, making his first postseason start as a member of the Red Sox. Lackey wasn't especially sharp but pitched well enough to earn the win, allowing four earned runs in five and a third innings of work. Lackey departed from the game with a 6-4 lead, leaving Boston's bullpen to finish the job. Craig Breslow recorded the final two outs of the sixth and pitched a scoreless seventh, getting Ben Zobrist to ground into an inning-ending double play.

Price made it through the sixth and seventh unscathed as well but Joe Maddon, hoping to compensate for Matt Moore's early exit yesterday, brought him back out to start the eighth. Price promptly served up another gopher ball to David Ortiz, who belted Price's 102nd pitch over the Pesky Pole for his second home run of the game. With the Red Sox up 7-4 Maddon finally removed Price from the game, but the damage was done.

Koji Uehara closed the door with a 1-2-3 inning to nail down his first career postseason save. The Sox will go for the sweep at Tropicana Field tomorrow.

Red Sox Roll Over Rays

Lester gets fired up as he silences Tampa Bay's bats (Boston Herald)

The Red Sox earned their first postseason win since 2008 by pummeling the Tampa Bay Rays in yesterday's Division Series opener.

The Red Sox won 12-2 behind a strong performance from Jon Lester and a ferocious hitting attack from the best offense in baseball. Even though Lester got off to a great start, striking out the first four batters he faced (much to the delight of the Fenway Faithful), it was the Rays who took the early lead.  Sean Rodriguez and Ben Zobrist smacked solo home runs over the Monster, staking Matt Moore to an early lead.

But the Red Sox, as they have so often this year, came back. Trailing 2-0, Boston's bats picked up their ace in the bottom of fourth. The Sox scored five runs and batted around, capitalizing on several defensive miscues by the Rays. Jonny Gomes knotted the score with a two-run double off the Monster--his first career postseason hit--and that was the last of Tampa Bay's lead. The Sox tacked on three more while making Moore throw 33 pitches in the frame.

With Moore clearly laboring, Boston drove him from the game in the fifth following a two-run double from Jarrod Saltalamacchia. The Red Sox sent nine men to the plate in the fifth and padded their lead to 8-2, essentially putting the game out of reach. Lester held the Rays in check, coming within four outs of a complete game before turning it over to the bullpen. Junichi Tazawa finished off the eighth for him, getting Wil Myers to fly out and strand James Loney and Desmond Jennings on the basepaths.

Joe Maddon brought in journeyman Jamey Wright for mop-up duty, but Boston was far from done. The Red Sox ripped off four more runs to put the exclamation mark on their big day--12 runs on 14 hits, none of which cleared the fences. Ryan Dempster came on to close out the win, getting Yunel Escobar to ground out and end the game.

The Red Sox will try to take a 2-0 series advantage today as John Lackey squares up against the American League's defending Cy Young winner David Price. It's a matchup featuring the man who clinched Boston's first division title since 2007 versus the hero who pitched Tampa Bay to victory in Game 163. Let's get it on.

Rays Win Game 163

After their 5-2 win last night the Rays live to play another day (Yahoo Sports)

Last night the Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers, both of whom finished the regular season with identical 91-71 records, squared off in Arlington last night to determine the American League's second Wild Card team.

This game--Game 163--wouldn't have happened two years ago. Instead, both teams would be lamenting how they finished one game behind the Cleveland Indians--the true Wild Card winners. But the times, and rules, have changed, so both teams were given a second shot at October baseball.

The Rangers were red-hot, having won seven straight games to close out the year. That sprint to the finish left Ron Washington unable to start Yu Darvish or Derek Holland. He went with 22 year-old rookie Martin Perez, who acquitted himself well this year but wouldn't have been anyone's first choice to start a game of this magnitude.

That's what made the Rays clear favorites to win. In this do-or-die, win-or-go-home cage-match,Tampa Bay turned to its ace and reigning AL Cy Young winner David Price. Putting his postseason struggles against Texas aside, the three-time All-Star is widely considered to be one of baseball's best pitchers and his availability seemed likely to swing the game in Tampa Bay's favor.

Sure enough, it did. Price pitched the Rays into the playoffs by going the distance, scattering seven hits and allowing just two runs. Tampa Bay staked him to an early lead, drawing first blood on Delmon Young's sac fly in the top of the first. The Rays led from that point forward, and with Price pitching their lead was never seriously threatened.

Perez didn't pitch poorly, but simply wasn't good enough to outduel Price. He departed in the sixth after striking out Ben Zobrist to open the frame, giving way to Alexi Ogando. Texas was losing 3-1 at the time, but doubles from Evan Longoria and David DeJesus made that deficit 4-1 before Ogando could close out the inning.

The Rangers responded with a run in their half of the inning on an RBI double from Alex Rios, but Price shut them out for the rest of the night. Tampa added an insurance run in the top of the ninth to make the score 5-2. Rather than tap into his bullpen, Joe Maddon let Price, who had thrown 108 pitches through eight, come back out to finish what he started. He finished strong, setting down Adrian Beltre, A.J. Pierzynski and Nelson Cruz in order.

(Speaking of Cruz, all the hoopla surrounding his return from a 50 game suspension turned out to be much ado about nothing. Cruz was a non-factor, going 0-for-4 with a strikeout).

Price put the team on his back, but so did Evan Longoria, who continued his run of monster games on the final day of the season. Longo went 3-for-4 with a single, double, and two-run homer. The long ball was his seventh career blast on the final day of the season, breaking a tie with Stan Musial. Longoria clearly understands the importance of saving his best for last.

So for the second year in a row, the Rangers are headed home after narrowly missing the postseason and Washington will likely be fired as a result. The Rays travel to Cleveland, where they will take on Terry Francona's Indians tomorrow night in another sudden-death affair--the Wild Card (aka coin toss) playoff game. Tampa Bay will pin its playoff hopes on Alex Cobb, while Cleveland will ride rookie Danny Salazar, who has just ten big league starts under his belt.

Obviously this game could go either way, but my gut tells me the Rays will come out on top. I say Tampa Bay 4, Cleveland 3.

Buchholz Back

Buchholz was dealing in his return to action last night (ESPN)

Clay Buchholz made his first start since June 8th last night, shutting down the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field in a 2-0 Red Sox win.

Buchholz, who missed more than three months with a strained neck, looked sharp in his pitch count-shortened return. He tossed five scoreless innings, allowing just three hits (all singles) and one walk while strking out six, reminding everyone why he was the AL Cy Young favorite before landing on the Disabled List.

Buchholz needed to be at the top of his game, too, given how well David Price pitched. Price was perfect until the fifth, when Mike Napoli doubled off the top of the centerfield wall to lead off the frame. Jonny Gomes drove him home with a single up the middle, then took second on Demond Jennings' wild throw to the plate. Daniel Nava bunted him over to third, allowing him to score easily on Jarrod Saltalamacchia's long sacrifice fly.

Boston's bullpen took it from there. Craig Breslow followed Buchholz with a pair of shutout innings, and Junichi Tazawa got the Sox two outs closer to victory in the eighth before Yunel Escobar doubled. That brought the tying run to the plate in the form of rookie sensation Wil Myers. Not taking any chances, John Farrell called upon Koji Uehara to retire the phenom.

Uehara, as he always does, came through, inducing Myers to pop out harmlessly into foul territory. The Red Sox closer came back out for the ninth and shut the door on the Rays, retiring Ben Zobrist, Evan Longoria and Matthew Joyce in order.

While beating Tampa Bay always feels good, it was made even sweeter by Buchholz's dominant performance. He looked fully recovered from the injury issues that sidelined him for most of the summer. A healthy and effective Buchholz will make a big difference in the postseason, giving the Sox a true ace at the top of their rotation. When he's pitching well, the Red Sox are a much more dangerous team, and I feel a lot better about the Boston's World Series chances now that he's back.

AL East Preview

1st Place--Toronto Blue Jays
2012 Record: 73-89
2012 Pythagorean: 74-88
2013 Projected: 94-68
It's been 20 years since Joe Carter crushed one of the most memorable moon shots in baseball history. In the two decades that followed, Toronto hasn't made a single postseason appearance or won more than 88 games, falling from its perch atop the AL East into the middle of the pack. That's about to change. A pair of blockbuster trades brought All-Stars Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, and reigning NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey north of the border to join two of the league's top power hitters (Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion), the next Ryan Braun (Brett Lawrie), and a budding ace (Brandon Morrow). In the span of a few short weeks, GM Alex Anthopoulos transformed his ballclub from also-rans into World Series favorites. Toronto's rotation boasts five frontline starters and its lineup is loaded, putting the Jays in a great position to take advantage of their weakened division rivals. That said, they haven't won anything yet. After what happened to the Miami Marlins and Los Angeles Angels last year, it's important to remember that winning the winter doesn't always translate to winning the regular season. Anthopoulos raided his farm system to acquire established big league talent, so the moves better pay off.

2nd Place--Tampa Bay Rays
2012 Record: 90-72
2012 Pythagorean: 95-67
2013 Projected: 92-70
With plenty of pitching and just enough offense to scrape by, the Rays are like the Junior Circuit's answer to the San Francisco Giants. Even without "Big Game" James Shields, Tampa Bay still has an incredible starting rotation headed by AL Cy Young winner David Price. Price is flanked by 2011 AL Rookie of the Year Jeremy Hellickson and two promising arms (Alex Cobb and Matt Moore) looking to build on strong rookie showings. The bullpen and defense is just as strong, but the Rays will be a bit short on offense again this year, especially after losing B.J. Upton to free agency. A full season from Evan Longoria will help, but bringing in the likes of Yunel Escobar, James Loney and Kelly Johnson doesn't figure to add much pop. They could really use a breakthrough from Desmond Jennings, but he looks like the second coming of Upton in that he's a toolsy outfielder who strikes out a lot. Tampa does have Wil Myers waiting in the wings, and he's good enough to provide a Bryce Harper-type impact if/when they promote him to the Show. Joe Maddon is one of the best managers around and will find a way to guide Tampa Bay to another 90-win season.

3rd Place--Boston Red Sox
2012 Record: 69-93
2012 Pythagorean: 74-88
2013 Projected: 87-75
I've talked extensively about the Red Sox in this space before, and at this point I don't have too much more to say. GM Ben Cherington had his work cut out for him after dumping Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Josh Beckett on the Los Angeles Dodgers last August, but he's done more than enough to help Boston get back to its winning ways in 2013. As always, the Red Sox have assembled a potent lineup that will probably rank at or near the top of the league in runs scored. There's a nice blend of speed (Shane Victorino and Jacoby Ellsbury, who's going to have a monster year) and power (David Ortiz, Will Middlebrooks, and Mike Napoli, who was built for Fenway Park). Ryan Dempster is a solid addition to John Farrell's starting rotation, which should get bounce back years from Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz and (dare I say) John Lackey. The bullpen is sneaky-good, especially if Andrew Bailey avoids the Disabled List and Alfredo Aceves can get out of his own head.  Some see 2013 as a bridge year, but with good health and positive regression to the mean, Boston has a decent chance of contending for one of the two Wild Card berths this year.

4th Place--New York Yankees
2012 Record: 95-67
2012 Pythagorean: 95-67
2013 Projected: 82-80
The Yanks sure got old in a hurry. The season hasn't even started yet, and they're already stretched thin because of injuries to Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and Curtis Granderson, meaning runs are going to be hard to come by this spring. Their catching situation (Ian Stewart and Francisco Cervelli splitting time) is laughable. Derek Jeter couldn't defend his position before fracturing his ankle. The rotation consists of CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, and a bunch of question marks named Andy Pettitte (old), Phil Hughes (injury-prone)and Ivan Nova (just plain bad). Mariano Rivera and Ichiro Suzuki are on their last legs. The Yankees are going to start slow as they always do, only this time they'll be too old and banged-up to make a full recovery. Given New York's lack of depth and minor league talent, I wouldn't be surprised to see Joe Girardi penciling Bleacher Creatures into his lineup card come August.

5th Place--Baltimore Orioles
2012 Record: 93-69
2012 Pythagorean: 82-80
2013 Projected: 76-86
Baltimore stunned the baseball world by snapping its 15-year playoff drought last year, but I predict a return to mediocrity in 2013. I didn't buy their fluky success last year, and even though they proved me wrong I'm not buying their success this year. Call me stubborn if you will, but the Orioles won an ungodly amount of one-run games last year. That's not going to happen again. Furthermore, GM Dan Duquette failed to improve his team over the winter, unless you believe signing Jair Jurrjens makes a rotation better (I don't). Much like the Kansas City Royals, Baltimore is banking on continued improvement from its young core of stars: Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Manny Machado, and Dylan Bundy. While I like their lineup a lot (Chris Davis, J.J. Hardy and Nick Markakis are good, too), their lack of accomplished starting pitching is a cause for concern. Buck Showalter has just one hurler--Wei-Yin Chen--who won more than nine games and threw enough innings to qualify for the ERA title last season. Chen enjoyed a solid rookie campaign but hardly qualifies as an ace, something the O's desperately need but haven't had since Mike Mussina signed with New York. Bundy has that kind of potential, but the 20 year-old needs more season and will begin the season Double-A. The bullpen was phenomenal last year but is going to be overtaxed if Showalter can't squeeze enough quality innings out of his rotation.