Boston Bolsters Rotation Via Trades

Miley makes Boston's rotation marginally better (ESPN)

The Red Sox moved quickly after missing out on Jon Lester, pulling off a pair of trades that will bring starting pitchers Wade Miley and Rick Porcello to Boston. While neither are anywhere near Lester's caliber, both are younger and just as durable. They're quality major league arms that make Boston's rotation more formidable.

The Miley trade was consummated first, sending Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa, the pitching prospects acquired in Boston's 2012 blockbuster trade with the Dodgers, to Arizona. Webster, 24, has failed to impress at the major league level with a 6.25 ERA, 5.08 FIP, and 1.58 WHIP in 19 big league appearances (18 starts). Clearly the Red Sox did not like what they saw from last summer's audition and felt it was time to move on.

De La Rosa, 25, showed flashes of dominance but has been wildly inconsistent in his major league career, yielding a 4.34 ERA and 1.46 WHIP across 174 and 1/3 innings. Like Felix Doubront, he hasn't been able to translate his great stuff into steady success. Boston was wise to move both while they were still young and raw enough to command some value on the trade market. Each still has the potential to develop into a quality major league starter some day, albeit probably at the back end of someone's rotation. Perhaps they're destined to be bullpen guys. Either way, it seems highly unlikely that Boston just traded away a couple of aces in the making.

Miley's by no means an ace, either, but has been solid since debuting in 2011. He holds a 3.79 career ERA (103 ERA+) equal to his FIP, meaning his results are in line with his skills. He's gone downhill since making the All-Star team and finishing second in the 2012 NL Rookie of the Year voting to Bryce Harper, however, but still made 33 starts and topped 200 innings in each of the past two years with a 3.98 FIP each year. He's also lefthanded, which is a plus for a team that was counting on Lester's return but could spell trouble whenever he toes the rubber in Fenway Park. Good thing he's generated ground balls on more than half the balls he's allowed in play over the past two years.

As if moving to the Fenway and the American League isn't scary enough, the trends in his peripherals are positively frightening. His home run, walk, and hit rates have gone up since 2012, causing his WHIP to jump from 1.18 to 1.32 to 1.40. His ERA has risen more than a full run as he's gone from a solidly above average pitcher to a solidly below average one. At 28, he's an innings eater with little upside, as whatever bounce back potential he has will likely be offset by his transition to the AL East. At least he's under team control for three more years, which gives him a bit of re-sale value should he flop in his Red Sox debut.

Porcello will pitch for Boston in 2015 (HardballTalk)

Porcello, another ground ball pitcher, appears to be the better get here. Boston dealt Yoenis Cespedes to Detroit for him, fulfilling the Tigers' need for a right fielder in the wake of Torii Hunter's departure (three minor leaguers were also involved, two leaving Boston and one from Detroit). Like Cespedes, Porcello will be a free agent next winter, which means the Red Sox probably won't be committed to him beyond 2015.

Unlike Miley, the soon-to-be 26 year-old has become a better pitcher in recent years. His ERA has improved every year since 2010 and so has his ERA+. Last year was the best of Porcello's six-year career, resulting in a career-high 15 wins, 204 and 2/3 innings, 3.43 ERA, 116 ERA+, and 1.23 WHIP, not to mention his major league leading three shutouts (tied with Henderson Alvarez and Adam Wainwright). He probably won't replicate those numbers pitching half his games at Fenway Park next year, but should be good for around 180 league average innings.

His ability to do that over the course of his career has been surprisingly valuable. Despite a career 4.30 ERA (98 ERA+), he's been worth at least 1.7 fWAR every year and at least 2.6 in each of his last four, meaning his floor is pretty high. Seeing as how 2015 is his final arbitration year, he won't come cheap, but at least he'll stabilize Boston's rotation and be a reliable starter every fifth day. Like Miley, he's predominately a ground-ball pitcher who shouldn't suffer too much at Fenway's friendly confines and will benefit away from Detriot's abysmal infield defense (though I'm not sure Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez/Xander Bogaerts on the left side is much better). He also has postseason experience, having pitched for Detroit's division-winning ballclubs in the past.

While these moves fill out the back of Boston's rotation beyond Clay Buchholz and Joe Kelly, they still leave the Red Sox in need of an ace. Max Scherzer and James Shields are still available if Boston's open to reinvesting the money they planned to give Lester, or package some of their many prospects for Mat Latos or Cole Hamels. Either way the price is going to be steep, but the Red Sox must land one of those guys in order to contend next year.

Boston's rotation looks considerably better than it did yesterday, but there is still work to be done.

Lester Lights Out

Lester's been at the top of his game since arriving in Oakland (CBS)

The Oakland A's have been the subject of much derision lately because of their second half slide, falling from the top of their division to 10.5 games back of the Angels in six weeks. The A's have all but stopped hitting, and a lot of the blame for that has been laid at the feet of Billy Beane, who traded cleanup hitter and offensive force Yoenis Cespedes to Boston for Jon Lester and Jonny Gomes. Cespedes has mashed with the Sox, while Gomes's struggles have followed him out west (no homers and .540 OPS with Oakland).

But saying the trade made Oakland worse would be a fallacy. Lester and Gomes combined have given the A's 1.6 wins above replacement in their brief time with the club, while Cespedes has provided Boston with 1.2. Acknowledging that narrow difference is too negligible to say this trade came out in Oakland's favor with any certainty, at the very least it's been even.

Because while Gomes has given the A's nothing of value, Lester's stepped up to become the undisputed ace of his new team. As good as Lester was with Boston during the first half, he's been even more dominant with Oakland. In his 10 starts with the A's, all quality, he's delivered 69 and 2/3 innings (almost seven innings per turn) of 2.20 ERA-ball. Opponents have batted just /226/.272/.354 against him during that time, which explains how he's compiled a 1.06 WHIP since he came over to Oakland. He's also maintained a nifty strikeout to walk ratio of 64/16 (4/1) and posted an average GameScore of 63.

Lester's pitched as well as advertised, and the A's have gone 7-3 in his starts. It's hardly his fault that Oakland's lineup went into hibernation, or that Scott Kazmir and Sonny Gray have fallen off, or that the bullpen's been an absolute mess lately. Lester can only impact the team every five days, and he's done an excellent job of putting them in position to win. He's been money down the stretch, doing everything in his power to stop Oakland's slide even as the majority of his teammates have struggled.

He's been at the center of an epic collapse before, but if it happens again he's made damn sure well that he won't be the one to blame.

Cespedes Check-In

Cespedes has played well in his Red Sox debut (NESN)

There's not a whole lot of reasons to watch the Red Sox these days, unless you enjoy watching youngsters (Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts) cut their teeth in the big leagues, veterans playing out the string and Will Middlebrooks trying to salvage his major league career. Boston's an odd mix of old and young going nowhere fast, hopelessly out of contention and toiling in last place in the AL East.

Yes, the Red Sox title defense has gone horribly astray, especially in the past month or so since Ben Cherington dealt away many of the team's key pieces. There hasn't been a lot to cheer for lately, save one of the club's newest additions: hard-hitting outfielder Yoenis Cespedes.

Cespedes has performed as advertised: a tremendous source of righthanded power capable of batting cleanup behind David Ortiz. While the Sox have gone into free-fall mode since his arrival, going 13-18 since August 1st, Cespedes has been wonderful. In his 30 games in a Red Sox uniform Cespedes has hit safely in 24 of them, slashing .288/.306/.475 with a dozen extra base hits and 24 RBI. No Red Sock has more ribbies during that span, confirming Cespedes's status as one of the premier run-producers in the game (his 91 RBI rank fifth in the AL).

The downside is that Cespedes has all but abandoned any sense of plate discipline since coming to Boston, with only three walks in his time here against 26 strikeouts. Over the course of a season such a ratio would incur disastrous results, but thus far it hasn't hindered him. I'm sure the Sox would like to see him be a bit more patient, as his .304 OBP this year and .294 OBP last year fall below the league average, but those figures are certainly playable if Cespedes provides 25 homers and 105 RBI, as he's on pace to do this year.

Besides, Cespedes is one of the few Red Sox playing well at the moment (if it ain't broke...). Maybe his hyper-aggressive approach will prevent him from becoming the elite hitter he was during his rookie year, but at least he's still hitting plenty of homers and driving in truck loads of runs. Perhaps he's nothing more than a flashier Joe Carter, but that's okay. Boston could certainly use a Jim Carter-type these days.

Checking Out Cespedes

In Cespedes, Boston has one of baseball's most intriguing talents (SportsOutWest)

The Red Sox unloaded what felt like half their roster yesterday, trading away their two best starting pitchers, an ace reliever, their starting shortstop and half of their left field platoon, all after they'd already dealt two starting pitchers earlier in the week. But rather than netting a haul of prospects as many anticipated, Boston surprisingly got back established major league talent, which Ben Cherington explained as the first steps in retooling the roster to be competitive again in 2015.

Boston's shiniest new addition is Yoenis Cespedes*--an All-Star this year and winner of the last two home run derbies--acquired for Jon Lester and Jonny Gomes. Blessed with monster power, solid baserunning skills and a cannon for a right arm, Cespedes is one of the best all-around outfielders in baseball. A poor man's Giancarlo Stanton, if you will. And at 28, he's squarely in his prime, something the Red Sox can't say about too many of their players.

*(How much does it suck to be Cespedes right now? To be traded off the best team in baseball, an outfit that stands a great chance to win the World Series three months from now, to a last-place team with the third-worst record in the American League and no hope of making the playoffs. I'd be pissed).

In just his third major league season, Cespedes is still growing and maturing as a ballplayer, still making adjustments as he tries to translate his enormous raw abilities into the huge numbers they're capable of producing. While his offense has taken a step back since his rookie season, he's cut down on his strikeouts this year and has fashioned himself into a better defender (the Red Sox plan to try him in right with Shane Victorino on the DL again) Cespedes has the tools to be a star, an MVP even, but most think of him the way they think of Justin Upton or Desmond Jennings--a gifted outfielder who hasn't put it all together yet.

Cespedes came close in 2012, when he burst onto the scene as a 26 year-old rookie on a four-year, $36 million deal with the Oakland A's. He made an immediate impact, helping the A's go from 74 wins the year before his arrival to 94 wins and a division title in his very first season. Cespedes was a key offensive contributor who smashed 23 home runs, drove home 82, stole 16 bases in 20 attempts and batted .292/.356/.505, good for a .368 wOBA and 139 OPS+.

A four-win player, Cespedes would have been an easy choice for Rookie of the Year under normal circumstances, but 2012 was destined to be remembered for the historic rookie seasons of Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. With the vast majority of attention and praise showered on the younger phenoms, Cespedes was runner-up to Trout in the AL Rookie of the Year race--no shame in that--and earned a 10th place finish in the MVP voting as well. His future seemed bright, and he was so highly regarded at the time that some thought he'd win an MVP as soon as 2013.

Since then, however, his progression has stalled. He walked less and struck out more in 2013, exactly the opposite of what one hopes to see from a second-year big leaguer. While Cespedes still produced potent power numbers with 26 home runs, 80 RBI and a .202 ISO, his batting average tumbled more than 50 points while his OBP and SLG both dropped by over 60, resulting in a 124-point decline in OPS that effectively reduced him into a league average bat. Blame it on the dreaded sophomore slump, pitchers figuring him out or an early season thumb injury that sent him to the DL and may have affected his swing; whatever the reason, his follow-up campaign was a disappointment.

This year has been better, though still nowhere near as good as his impressive rookie campaign.  To be fair, his numbers are still suppressed somewhat by his 3-for-45 skid leading up to the All-Star Break, a funk from which he's recovered by batting .326 with three home runs and 11 RBI since the Midsummer Classic. But that's just the kind of hitter he is--streaky.

He's also somewhat injury prone, having spent time on the Disabled List in each of his first two seasons. He's remained healthy this year, playing all but six of Oakland's games before the trade and avoiding the Disabled List thus far (knock on wood). On pace to play a full season for the first time after missing 60 games with assorted injuries between 2012 and 2013, he'll likely finish the season with career highs in most offensive counting stats.

Of course, he's a good bet to improve upon those numbers next year provided he's still with the Sox. Moving away from the cavernous Coliseum to Fenway's friendly confines should boost his numbers considerably, especially his average and by extension his on-base percentage. No way he hits .250 again with a .300 OBP next year--he's probably closer to .275/.330. Those numbers could be conservative estimates, seeing as how he nearly batted .300 as a rookie and might become more patient with age as he gains better strike zone recognition. It's interesting that his career OPS has been almost 100 points higher in Oakland than on the road, but since most players hit better at home that doesn't mean much. Switching from one of baseball's worst parks for hitters to one of its best should, in theory, boost his stats considerably.

Letting Cespedes take aim at the Monster 81 times a year has to be a salivating prospect for the Red Sox. Cespedes was already worth three wins above replacement for the A's in three-fifths of a season. putting him on pace to be close to a five-win player this year. Assuming he at least stays the same, he should be good for another four to five wins next year, possibly more if he really takes off and hits his stride at Fenway, which should be easy for a fly ball hitter currently lifting over half his batted balls into the air, many of which will scrape off or clear the wall. It's easy to envision him hitting 30 homers for the first time, driving in close to 100 runs, and posting an OPS well over .800. He's not going to hit like Manny Ramirez, but he could have a season comparable to one of Jason Bay's better ones (remember him?).

Even if Cespedes stays what he is--a .250 hitter with 25 home run pop and a .300 OBP--that's still an upgrade over the Gomes/Daniel Nava tandem in left. He's also a better defender than either one and a better baserunner, too. Furthermore, he adds a hefty dose of power to a lineup, and in particular an outfield, that craves it. Boston currently ranks 12th in the American League in home runs and 13th in slugging, largely because its outfielders have combined to hit 14 home runs (Cespedes currently has 17). With Cespedes on board, you can bet that won't be the case next year.

But what about after next year? Cespedes is going to be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2015 season, and the Red Sox will not be able to offer him a qualifying offer. Suffice it to say, Cespedes is going to command a lot more than the $10.5 million he's making this year and next. As one of the few impact power bats availabe and a relatively young free agent at 30, Cespedes could easily land a nine-figure deal if her performs well in Boston. Given Red Sox ownership's recent aversion to spending lavishly for players on the wrong side of 30, it's hard to imagine them paying what it would take to keep him around.

But Boston's baseball ops can cross that bridge when they get to it. For now, they should be patting themselves on the back for getting almost a year and a half of Cespedes for Gomes and two months of Lester. Cespedes addresses their biggest hole--outfield power--and possesses the kind of game-changing talent that simultaneously improves their lineup and outfield defense. And he still has room to grow.

Cespedes is a fairly expensive project, but as far as projects go he's a pretty good one to have.

Slow Starts I'm Not Worried About (AL)

Victor Martinez (.215/.272/.306)
The Bad: V-Mart has looked very rusty after missing all of 2012 with a torn ACL. Martinez didn't hit his first home run of the season until May 4th. Despite batting fifth in Detroit's lineup behind Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, he has just 18 RBI on the season. He's striking out more than ever before and has worked only two walks since April 20th. At 34, he's reached an age where most players begin to suffer marked deterioration in their performance.

Why he'll turn it around: That .234 BABiP is bound to come up, as will his 3.5 HR/FB%. His stellar track record suggests he's going to figure things out sooner or later, and when he does he's going to knock in truckloads of runs batting behind Cabrera and Fielder.

Josh Willingham (.205/.378/.411)
The Bad: After a solid opening month, Willingham has seen his power stroke disappear in May. In his past 14 games he has no home runs and just seven hits. He's seeing fewer strikes than last year, so pitchers may be trying to avoid him more.

Why he'll turn it around: High strikeout, feast-or-famine hitters like Willingham tend to be streaky. Let's just chalk his recent slide up to a standard slump and assume the next power binge is right around the corner, especially as the weather starts warming up.

Yoenis Cespedes (.204/.270/.435)
The Bad: Cespedes already spent time on the DL with a thumb injury, which may still be affecting his swing. He has just one multi-hit game in May and hasn't drawn a walk since May 3rd. He fanned 30 times in a 22 game span from April 2nd through May 10th. He stole 16 bases last year, when he finished second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting behind Mike Trout, but has yet to swipe one this year.

Why he'll turn it around: His .203 BABiP is due for some serious correction, especially when his line drive percentage (8.6) starts to climb.

Albert Pujols (.248/.328/.418)
The Bad: Playing on a surgically repaired knee and through plantar fasciitis seems to be taking its toll on the 33 year-old first baseman. His strikeout rate is the highest it's been since his rookie season. He's leading the league in double plays grounded into and is once again a main culprit for LA's sluggish start (though Josh Hamilton is more to blame).

Why he'll turn it around: Pujols was even worse last spring, when he batted just .192/.228/.277 through May 11th. From that point forward he batted .310/.373/.581. He's one of the best hitters of all time, and he's worthy of your patience. His .246 BABiP will rise, as will his 12.0 HR/FB%.

Adam Dunn (.156/.255/.391)
The Bad: There's a lot of bad. Dunn went 34 straight plate appearances without a base hit from April 12th to April 20th. He had just two multi-hit games in April and three overall. His walk rate is way down. His numbers don't look much better than they did in 2011, when he had one of the worst seasons a hitter has ever had. The last place White Sox need more from him.

Why he'll turn it around: After slamming three home runs in his past two games, Dunn may already be emerging from the depths of his early season slump. Given that he's totaled at least 38 dingers in eight of the past nine years, the home runs are going to start coming in bunches. His .155 BABiP has nowhere to go but up.