White Sox Lose LaRoche

LaRoche is leaving on his own terms (Chicago Tribune)

It's jarring how quickly athletes lose their talents, their ability to do their jobs. One year they can hit a 95-mile-an-hour fastball, and the next they can't. One day they're hitting shots from everywhere on the court, and a few months later they're missing all the same shots. We've seen it happen so many times, guys going from great to horrible practically overnight. And yet, when it happens, it never fails to surprise us. We can't believe that Peyton Manning is suddenly throwing more interceptions than touchdowns, or that Derek Jeter can no longer reach a ball that isn't hit directly at him. Wasn't it just yesterday that they were making highlight reel plays and seemingly at the top of their games?

It's something most of us can't comprehend because most of us don't have skills that can decline so rapidly. Barring some sort of traumatic brain injury, you're not going to wake up in a year and forget how to type or make a sandwich or drive your car. If you play recreational sports, this happens to a much lesser extent. You feel yourself getting older, slower, thicker, but the same thing is happening to everyone else. The teams aren't being re-stocked with fresh 22-year-olds every year, which is why you can hang on in your pick-up basketball league long after you've lost the ability to jump, and why you can play beer-league softball even after developing a pretty substantial beer gut.

Obviously, that is not the case in professional sports. The level of competition is so high, the margin for error so small, that almost imperceptible drops in performance can make the difference between being a star and washing said star's laundry. Lose a mile on your fastball or a foot on your passes, and you'll be out of a job before long.

It's scary, how quickly it can (and does) disappear. Just ask Adam LaRoche.

***

This time last year, things were looking up for Adam LaRoche. He had just signed a two-year, $25 million deal and was coming off a typical Adam LaRoche season of 26 homers, 92 RBI, .817 OPS. Even though he was 35, some thought he could still improve on those numbers, as he was moving to U.S. Cellular Field (a slugger's paradise) and could focus on his hitting full-time as an everyday DH.

"Physically, I still feel great," he said after joining the White Sox. "I'm looking forward to hopefully being in the middle of that lineup and having a chance to drive some runs in."

Fast forward one year, and he's retiring following the worst season of his career.

It was some career, 12 seasons defined by remarkable consistency, If LaRoche had 12 more seasons like them, he'd be going to the Hall of Fame.

Nine times he swatted 20 or more home runs in a season, but only twice did he top 30. Eight times he drove in at least 78 runs, but never more than 100. His batting average rarely strayed more than 10 points in either direction from .270 before ultimately settling at .260.

Even as the game changed around him, LaRoche remained the same. Every year starting in 2006, the major leagues set a new record for strikeouts, but LaRoche struck out at pretty much the same rate every year. Walk rates continued creeping up as well, but LaRoche didn't become increasingly patient. Batting averages fell as all the walks, strikeouts, and better positioned defenses sucked up hits, but LaRoche's didn't.

Constant changes of scenery never phased LaRoche, either. He changed teams six times in his dozen seasons, but no matter where he played--Atlanta, Chicago, Arizona, Washington--he always seemed right at home.

For nearly a decade, nothing got in the way of LaRoche's eternal quest for those 25 home runs and 80 RBIs. Not age, not defensive shifts, not the expanding strike zone, and not even injury. In 2011 he needed shoulder surgery after batting just .172 in 43 games at age 31. For many first basemen, that would be a death sentence. He came the next year and slugged 25 home runs with 100 RBI--a career high.

LaRoche could never run and didn't play first base particularly well, despite winning a Gold Glove, but he always hit, which is why it seemed like he always would. LaRoche looked like he'd keep on hitting until he was 40, especially after moving to the American League and being able to take advantage of the DH. When he signed that contract with Chicago, it felt as though a new chapter of his career was just beginning.

That chapter turned out to be very short, however, because in 2015 LaRoche finally stopped hitting. He batted .207/.293/.340 with just 12 home runs and 44 RBIs--the worst full-season numbers of his career. He struck out 133 times in only 429 at-bats--the second-worst percentage of his career. I he was worth 1.4 wins below replacement.

It wasn't just a terrible season; it was an embarrassing season. For the first time in his life, his only job was to hit, and he'd responded with the worst offensive campaign of his career. He was often benched against lefties (due to his .383 OPS against them) and struggled versus righties (against whom he had a .697 OPS). Many picked the White Sox to make the playoffs, or at least contend, but instead they finished 10 games below .500. LaRoche barely played in September as Chicago played out the string.

LaRoche could have walked away at any point over the winter, and everyone would have understood. To his credit, though, LaRoche came back. He worked hard during the offseason and showed up to Spring Training, ready for his 13th major league season.

It turned out to be LaRoche's final season, as well as his shortest. It lasted just two Spring Training games before he called it quits, deciding to step away for personal reasons.

And just like that, his career was over.

***

People, myself included, don't appreciate how hard it is to hit consistently at the major league level. As if playing everyday for 7-8 months isn't hard enough, you're constantly traveling, facing new pitchers, and trying to master an ever-changing strike zone. You deal with different weather, altitudes, and hitter's backgrounds. The scouting report on you gets a little longer, so pitchers know how to attack your weaknesses and the defense knows where you're going to hit it before you do. No wonder hitters are like mad scientists, constantly making adjustments, tinkering with their swings, toying with their stances, trying whatever they can think of that might help them gain an edge and hoping to God it actually works.

Whatever Adam LaRoche was doing, it worked pretty darn well for 12 years.

Sox Going Opposite Ways

The White Sox have pulled out of their early season rut (Getty Images)

Although the Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox wear different colored stockings, they were two birds of the same feather last year. Boston finished 71-91 with a negative-81 run-differential, while Chicago went 73-89 with a minus-98. They then took drastic measures to improve during the offseason, with Boston signing Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, and Rick Porcello to huge contracts while Chicago added Jeff Samardzija, Melky Cabrera, and Adam LaRoche. Having bolstered their lineups and upgrading their rotations, both teams looked like contenders in 2015.

Following disappointing first halves, both Sox again found themselves in similar positions at the All-Star Break. Boston checked in at 42-47, while Chicago was an equally tepid 41-45. Both were playing well at the time, though, seemingly poised to go on a second half run after finishing the first half strong.

Since the All-Star Break, however, they have veered off in completely opposite directions. Boston has floundered, losing eight in a row and 12 of its last 14. Chicago, meanwhile, has taken off, winning seven in a row heading into tonight's series finale at Fenway and improving its July record to 16-8 (only the Yankees have a better record this month).

Their extreme performances over the past few weeks have dramatically altered their rest-of-season outlooks. The White Sox were an afterthought until the end of June, at which point they became the hottest team in baseball. Since June 28th, Chicago has posted the best record in baseball. The Red Sox, meanwhile, have been among the coldest, with the third-worst record in baseball over that span.

The few weeks between the Midsummer Classic and trade deadline are typically make-or-break for the teams on the cusp, which is especially true this year considering only six American League clubs have won more games than they've lost. Teams have to decide whether to go for it or wave the white flag, which always makes for an intriguing game of will-they or won't-they. With the second wild card keeping so many teams in contention deeper into the season, it's become increasingly difficult for teams to separate from the pack, and thus distinguish themselves as buyers or sellers. For some, a few well-timed wins or poorly-timed losses near the end of July can make all the difference.

So while Chicago seemed like one of the few surefire sellers this time last month, that is no longer the case, with their recent tear vaulting them to within two and a half games of the second wild card. Boston, on the other hand, was pursuing an ace after trimming their divisional deficit to five games before the break, but such a move seems unlikely now that they find themselves 14 games out of first and nine back of the wild card. Whereas the White Sox are back in it, the Red Sox are effectively out of it.

Accordingly, Chicago should hold on to Samardzija (unless somebody blows them away) and seek to add reinforcements. For Boston, another fire-sale is in order.

Never were their diverging trajectories more apparent than during their four-game showdown this week at a steamy Fenway Park. With Boston mired in a brutal heat wave, the White Sox were even hotter than the Hub's sweltering temperatures. Boston's mediocre pitching made the AL's worst offense look indomitable by allowing 10 runs on 15 hits in the series opener, nine runs on 14 hits to spoil Pedro Martinez's retired number ceremony, and nine runs on 17 hits last night. The ball was flying around Fenway's friendly confines as Chicago feasted on Joe Kelly, Wade Miley, and Rick Porcello. Tonight's menu features another appetizing entrée in knuckleballer Steven Wright (3-4, 4.78 ERA).

While the visiting Sox thrived in the oppressive humidity, the hometown Sox continued to melt. After putting up eight runs in Monday's losing effort, they were silenced by Jeff Samardzija and Jose Quintana the last two nights. Boston doesn't figure to do much against Chris Sale tonight, either. A four-game sweep, which seemed unfathomable after Boston took two of three from Detroit over the weekend, is all but assured.

The state of both teams can be summarized as follows: With two months of baseball yet to be played, the White Sox still have hope, and the Red Sox don't.

Image courtesy of AP

Here Comes Chicago

With Lester aboard, the Cubs have the pitching to complement their hitting (NESN)

Despite finishing last year with identical 73-89 records, the remade Chicago Cubs and White Sox are teams to be feared in 2015.

The long-suffering Cubs are coming off their fifth consecutive fifth-place finish and 106th straight season without a World Series championship (but who's counting). Even so, 2014 was an encouraging year for the beleaguered Cubbies. Franchise centerpieces Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro enjoyed bounce back years, Jorge Soler and Kyle Hendricks made promising debuts, and Jake Arrieta was one of the National League's best pitchers on a per-inning basis. Chicago ranked second in the Senior Circuit in long balls, and Kris Bryant hasn't even arrived yet. Imagine how many bombs they'll hit when he does and with Soler and Javier Baez playing every day.

Entering the fourth year of Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer's rebuilding project, Chicago appears on the brink of contention. The major league roster finally has the talent ready to compete. Aided by Soler and Hendriks, the Cubs were actually a much better team in the second half last year despite trading away their two best pitchers (Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel) in early July. Chicago went 31-28 after July 27th, winning one more game than the eventual World Series champion San Francisco Giants during that span.

It's no secret that Chicago has an abundance of young hitting talent, so the next logical step was to add quality arms this winter. The Cubs did so by re-signing Jason Hammel, who had a 2.98 ERA in 17 starts with them last year before being traded to Oakland, and swaying Jon Lester away from the Red Sox with a jaw-dropping six-year, $155 million offer that sent shockwaves throughout baseball. Chicago's new ace immediately improves a rotation that had the seventh-highest ERA in baseball last year. A vaunted big game pitcher and two-time World Series champion with Boston, Lester brings a furnished postseason track record to the Windy City as well.

Chicago also acquired arguably the game's best manager in Joe Maddon. Maddon, a two-time AL Manager of the year (2008 and 2011), helmed the Rays to five 90-win seasons between 2008 and 2013 (and 84 wins in 2009, the lone non-90 win season in that timeframe). More importantly, he has postseason experience, having managed four playoff teams in Tampa Bay including the 2008 American League champions. Unlike most of the Cubs, he's been to the World Series.

And while the Cubs didn't get the market's top catcher (Russell Martin, who went to the Blue Jays instead), they still got a good one by trading for Miguel Montero. A two-time All-Star, Montero was a four-win player in 2011 and 2012 and should remain productive at age 31. In addition to swinging a pretty solid stick, he also provides veteran leadership and experience behind the plate.

A busy offseason has prepared the Cubs for a competitive 2015 that could very well result in a playoff berth. Chicago will have its hands full with the St. Louis Cardinals, favorites to win the division for the third year in a row,  but the rest of the division looks less than formidable. The Reds are rebuilding, the Pirates keep losing talent (i.e. Martin), and the Brewers haven't improved. The Cubs could easily finish second and ride a wild card berth all the way to World Series glory.

Jose Abreu (pictured) and Chris Sale have help (GalleryHip)

The White Sox, who last made the playoffs in 2008, were essentially a .500 team last year into August (54-56 on the morning of August 2nd) before fading down the stretch. They were second in their division through the first week in June, but ultimately their thin rotation and aging lineup caught up to them.

Don't expect the same issues to derail Chicago this year. The White Sox won't have the MLB's sixth-worst rotation ERA again after trading for Jeff Samardzija, one of the game's premier power pitchers. Paired with Chris Sale, Samardizja gives the Sox an outstanding left-right punch atop their rotation. Chicago also signed David Robertson, a shutdown closer and one of baseball's best relievers over the past four years. He solidifies the back end of a leaky bullpen that finished 2014 with the third-worst ERA in the majors.

The White Sox upgraded their offense as well, inking Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche to bolster a lineup that was heavily dependent on Jose Abreu in 2014. LaRoche, a lock for 20 to 25 home runs when healthy, offsets the loss of Adam Dunn as the team's primary lefthanded power source. A former Gold Glove winner, LaRoche will also allow Abreu to DH a few times per week.

Cabrera figures to slide in behind leadoff man Adam Eaton, giving the team two quality table-setters for Abreu and LaRoche. With an OPS above .800 in three of the past four seasons, he's the kind of impact bat Chicago needs, and like LaRoche his power should play well at U.S. Cellular Field. Cabrera's also a switch-hitter, which helps keep Chicago's lineup balanced.

Like the Cubs, the White Sox seem to have an insurmountable foe in their division vis a vis the Detroit Tigers, winners of four straight AL Central crowns. They also must contend with the reigning AL pennant winners (though Kansas City will surely suffer from losing James Shields), and a solid Indians team. Even the Twins have improved. Accordingly, Chicago will be hard-pressed to make the playoffs coming out of such a competitive division, but I'd expect them to at least go .500. They're still a bit top-heavy (they're doomed if Abreu and/or Sale are lost for extended periods of time), but if their stars are healthy and perform then they'll have enough talent to make some noise.

Regardless of which side they stand on, Chicago baseball fans have plenty to be excited about. Both teams are much-improved and will be right in the thick of things, which hasn't been the case very often. Neither club has made the playoffs since 2008, but it wouldn't surprise me to see both playing next October.

An all-Chicago World Series might be a longshot, but at least there's a chance.

White Sox Add Adam LaRoche

LaRoche landed in the Windy City (CBSSports)

The rebuilding Chicago White Sox injected some much-needed lefthanded power into their lineup by inking first baseman Adam LaRoche to a two-year, $25 million deal.

With reigning AL Rookie of the Year Jose Abreu already entrenched at first base and considerably younger, the 35 year-old LaRoche expects to replace the retired Adam Dunn as Chicago's everyday DH. LaRoche is a great bet to reach or exceed Dunn's 2014 production, which included 20 home runs, 54 RBI, and a .773 OPS (LaRoche has averaged 22, 76, and .811 per season to this point).  Abreu was a disaster defensively, but he's also seven years younger than LaRoche, who has annually rated among the game's more defensively-challenged first basemen, his 2012 Gold Glove notwithstanding. At this stage in LaRoche's career, getting him off the field definitely makes sense.

Besides, the White Sox aren't paying LaRoche for his glove; they made this move because of what he can do in the batter's box. One of the steadiest power bats in the game, LaRoche has exceeded 20 home runs every year but one dating back to 2005, with an injury-riddled 2011 (just 43 games played) the exception. Incredibly durable, LaRoche has played at least 140 games in eight of the past ten seasons.

And while LaRoche's age may be a concern for some, he has showed no signs of slowing down. Last year he batted .259/.362/.455--right in line with his career .264/.340/.462 marks--with 26 home runs and 92 RBI in 140 games. He also posted the best full-season walk rate of his career (14 percent) while posting the second-lowest strikeout rate of his career. His batted ball data didn't change and he didn't have negative run values against any kind of pitch. He also fared well against power pitchers (.800 OPS), finesse pitchers (.821 OPS), and everyone in between (.821 OPS). Like fellow DHs David Ortiz and Victor Martinez, LaRoche has aged gracefully and should continue to do so.

Plus, moving from power-stifling Nationals Park to the homer-friendly U.S. Cellular Field should help alleviate any natural decline. If LaRoche stays healthy, he may have a shot at threatening his high-water mark of 33 home runs and 100 RBI, both reached in 2012. That represents his ceiling, obviously, but his floor is pretty high as well. Only once has he batted below .250 in a full season (2013) or slugged below .450 (also 2013), and his OBP has never been lower than .320. In today's run-parched environment, those are all pretty decent and certainly playable numbers.

So as far as 35 year-olds go, LaRoche is a pretty safe investment.

Youkilis Retires

Youkilis shows off hi bizarre hitting style (NYTimes)

After one season in Japan, former Red Sox corner infielder Kevin Youkilis is calling it a career.

Youkilis, known simply as Youk to Fenway Faithful, enjoyed a 10-year major league career, spending the first eight and a half of those seasons with Boston. Drafted by Dan Duquette in the eighth round of the 2001 draft, the disciplined third baseman received a new nickname--"Greek God of Walks"--from Billy Beane's Oakland A's organization. That patience would serve him well in the big leagues, where he maintained a robust .382 OBP and 12.2 BB%.

Youkilis arrived on the scene in 2004, just in time to help the beleaguered BoSox end their 86-year championship drought. He was a solid reserve on that team and the following year's squad, backing up Kevin Millar at first and Bill Mueller at third. Both left following the 2005 season, allowing Youkilis to inherit the everyday first baseman job with the Red Sox acquiring Mike Lowell, an All-Star third-sacker, in their trade for Josh Beckett.

Already 27 by that point, Youkilis was more than ready. He batted .279/.381/.429 in his first full season along with 42 doubles and a career-high 91 walks and 100 runs scored. He was even better the following year, improving from a three win player to a five win stalwart and earning his first and only Gold Glove.

More importantly, Youkilis sparked Boston to another World Series title that year. A non-factor in the '04 run with just two at-bats, he was one of the team's best hitters in '07 and proved crucial to their victory. Youk was especially lethal during Boston's come-from-behind ALCS victory over the Cleveland Indians, batting .500/.576/.929 with 14 hits, three home runs, seven RBI, and 10 runs scored. Against Colorado in the Fall Classic he capped off a terrific postseason in which he batted .388/.475/.755 with 19 hits in 14 games.

The following year, 2008, would be the best of Youk's career. He enjoyed a power breakthrough with 29 home runs--equaling his output from the previous two seasons combined--43 doubles, 306 total bases, and 115 RBI, all career highs. He also hit .312/.390/.569, made his first All-Star team, won the American League Hank Aaron Award, and finished third in the MVP race behind teammate Dustin Pedroia and Justin Morneau. Youkilis was instrumental in helping the Red Sox reach the postseason again, and enjoyed another monster LCS (1.008 OPS), but it was not enough as the Sox were outdone by the Rays in seven games.

Statistically, 2009 was just as good for Youkilis, who posted a .961 OPS and was worth 6.6 bWAR while making the All-Star team again and finishing sixth in the MVP polling. He was on track for similarly great numbers in 2010 when a torn abductor muscle in his right thumb ended his season at the beginning of August. The injury effectively marked the end of Youk's brief reign as one of the best players in baseball.

The final year of Youk's career were frustrating and tumultuous (CBSSports)

His career started heading south in 2011, his last full season with the Sox. He moved back to third base to accommodate Adrian Gonzalez but the position change likely did more harm than good, as Youkilis was again plagued by injuries during the second half. He missed 42 games in all and appeared in just 22 from August 1st on, batting a reduced .190 over that time. Had he been able to stay healthy or hit more effectively down the stretch, Boston likely would have won at least one more game and thus been spared the humiliation of its great September collapse.

In the wake of said meltdown, Youkilis lost the trust of his teammates due to suspicion that he had leaked the chicken and beer information to the press. 2012 quickly turned out to be a nightmare for him and the team, as he got off to a slow start, had his effort questioned by new manager Bobby Valentine, and spent more time on the Disabled List. In his absence rookie call-up Will Middlebrooks excelled, making Youkilis expendable in the eyes of the organization and giving them a convenient excuse to trade him away. Ben Cherington did just that, dealing Youkilis for two nobodies in return. In a fitting finale, Youkilis had two hits, including a triple, in the last game he ever played for the Red Sox.

He moved on to Chicago, where he hit better with the White Sox but not well enough to convince anybody that his glory days were coming back. That led to his signing a one-year deal with the Yankees, which turned out to be a huge bust when he got hurt yet again and appeared in just 28 games. Nobody wanted him when his contract expired, and he took off for Japan.

The end came hard and fast for Youkilis, as it does for many athletes in their early 30s. Youk was an All-Star at 32, cast-off at 33, and done at 34. It wasn't surprising he tailed off so fast given his physique and unmatched intensity. Nobody played the game harder or with more passion than Youkilis, and like a shooting star he burned out quickly. Injuries took their toll as well, but he was a great player when he did play and had a Hall of Fame peak, even if it was short-lived (three years). Though he didn't play much (barely 1,000 games) or for very long, he accomplished a hell of a lot during his all-too-brief career.

And he did it with one of the most unorthodox batting stances I've ever seen.

Nice to Konerko You

Konerko was a mainstay on the South Side for 16 years (Chicago CBS)

Lost in the hype surrounding Derek Jeter's dramatic departure from baseball was that Paul Konerko, beloved member of the Chicago White Sox for 16 years, also retired.

It was fitting that Konerko, one of the game's most underappreciated and little-talked about players, went out without much fanfare. Overshadowed by Jeter as well as his own teammates (Jose Abreu and Chris Sale were pretty good this year, huh?), he slipped out of the game, leaving on his own terms.

Like Jeter, Konerko was a model of consistency for many years. But also like Jeter, Konerko simply wasn't good enough to be an everyday player anymore. While Joe Girardi kept sending Jeter out to shortstop and batting him second everyday, Konerko graciously accepted a part-time role and played only 81 games this year. At .207/.254/.317, his bat was no longer potent enough to merit anything more than that, especially as a first base/DH type.

Konerko's bottoming out marked the end of a four-year decline in which he went from one of the game's best hitters to one of its worst. Such is life for an aging slugger in his mid-to-late 30s. Given his struggles at the plate the last two years (.639 OPS), it's hard to remember that he was an All-Star as recently as 2012 (for the sixth and final time).

It's also easy to forget that Konerko played for two other teams before he joined the White Sox. A first round draft pick by the Dodgers in 1994, Konerko debuted with Los Angeles in 1997 but was traded to Cincinnati the following year. After the 1998 season he was traded again, this time to Chicago, for Mike Cameron straight-up.

Cameron went on to have a fine career, but not with the Reds. He was included in the package that netted Ken Griffey Jr. one year later. Konerko, meanwhile, would go on to play 2,268 games in a White Sox uniform.

Better yet, he immediately broke out upon joining the White Sox. His first year with the team was his third in the Show, and the then-23 year-old shined in his first full season. Konerko clubbed 24 home runs and 31 doubles, knocked in 81 runs and batted .294/.352/.511. Granted, those numbers look a lot more impressive today than they did back in 1999, but he maintained them in each of the next three seasons as well.

After a down year in 2003, Konerko responded with back-to-back 40 home run campaigns, the latter coming in 2005. The White Sox won the World Series that year, ending an 88-year drought (which nobody seemed to care about because of what Boston had done the previous fall). Konerko played a big role, slamming five home runs and driving in 15 as Chicago breezed through the postseason. He took home ALCS MVP honors as well.

Konerko would only get one more crack at the postseason--in 2008--but the White Sox were eliminated from the ALDS by the upstart Rays. Once again Konerko shined, smacking two home runs and posting a 1.040 OPS over the four games. He remained a dangerous hitter over the next several seasons, putting up huge numbers through his mid-30s as he continued to pile up impressive career numbers. When it was all said and done, he finished his playing days a .279/.354/.486 hitter with 439 home runs (42nd all-time) and 1,412 RBI. He also notched 2,340 hits, 410 doubles, over 4,000 total bases and close to 1,000 walks.

A poor man's Eddie Murray, Konerko never led the league in anything important but was as steady as they come. He exceeded 20 home runs 13 years out of 14 from 1999 through 2012, and in the one year he missed he had 18. He topped 100 RBI six times and was over 90 three other times. Eight times he had at least 30 doubles.

Add it all up and Konerko was a pretty good first baseman. Not a Hall of Fame one, but a very good one nonetheless.

Walk-Offs and Winning Again

The Red Sox don't win anymore but when they do, at least it's entertaining

Just when the Red Sox couldn't seem to sink any lower, just when they'd given up on this failed season and called up the kids, just when they'd become irrelevant in the middle of July and seemingly squandered all the good faith they'd recuperated with last year's improbable championship, they go out and produce back-to-back walk-off wins at Fenway Park, which has been about as hospitable to this year's Sox as your in-laws or that creepy neighbor who retrieves his morning paper in the underwear and does nothing except water his flowerbeds all day long.

Those wins in that fashion were unexpected, to say the least, if not downright improbable. The first one, Wednesday's 5-4 win over the White Sox, was especially so. Boston trailed 4-0 heading into the bottom of the eighth with deserving All-Star Chris Sale still stifling its impotent offense. Mookie Betts led off with a fluke infield double, but Sale settled down to get Christian Vazquez (making his major league debut) and Brock Holt to ground out. Once again, the Red Sox had a man in scoring position but couldn't bring him home. Surprise surprise.

Things weren't looking good for the Olde Towne Team, who at that moment had only a three percent chance of emerging with the W. But with the game well in hand and Chicago coasting to its third straight win in the series, Boston got a break. More like a gift from God, actually. Rather than let Sale face Dustin Pedroia, who by that point was 0-for-3 on the day versus Sale, White Sox skipper Robin Ventura walked out to the mound and removed his ace from the game after 107 pitches.

Sure enough, the floodgates opened. Jake Petricka came in, faced four batters, couldn't get the last out. Pedroia singled in Betts, David Ortiz doubled home Pedroia, Mike Napoli walked, and Jonny Gomes ripped a double down the left field line to plate Ortiz. And just like that, Chicago's lead had been trimmed to one. With runners on second and third, Boston was threatening to tie or even take the lead, but Javy Guerra doused the flames by retiring Mike Carp to end the inning.

The White Sox still had the lead though, which remained one after Koji Uehara struck out the side in the top of the ninth. When Guerra got Jackie Bradley, Jr. to pop out for the first out in the bottom half, the Red Sox still had just an 11 percent chance of winning the ballgame.

But that's exactly what they did. Guerra plunked Betts, who on this day was destined to ignite both of Boston's late-inning rallies. Daniel Nava, pinch-hitting for Vazquez, delivered. Nava jumped all over the second pitch he saw from Guerra and belted his first double in three weeks, scoring Betts and tying the game at four.

The score didn't stay that way for long, though, as the incredible, fantastic (insert praise here) Mr. Holt did what he's done all year, which is put the Sox on his back and carry them to victory. Holt smashed a single into right past White Sox second baseman Gordon Beckham. Defensive replacement Moises Sierra field the ball, spun around and fired it towards the general vicinity of home plate. His throw sailed way up the line, bringing Tyler Flowers off the plate and allowing Nava to score easily with the winning run.

Thursday's win was a complete turnaround. This time it was Boston choking away its late lead, only to rally in extra winnings for the win to split the series. All-Star Jon Lester was in line for his tenth win after yielding one first-inning run to the White Sox in seven innings, striking out 12 and walking none along the way. The Sox had struck for three off Jose Quintana in the sixth, one on an RBI single by Bradley and two on Big Papi's 17th double of the season. When John Farrell brought in Uehara to close out the ninth, the game appeared to be over.

Except that it wasn't. This time it was the White Sox who rallied with their backs against the wall. Alexei Ramirez led off with a single, and after Paul Konerko struck out looking Ventura substituted Conor Gillaspie for Sierra. The move worked out to perfection when Gillaspie hooked Uehara's 1-0 offspeed offering around Pesky's Pole, tying the game at three apiece.

It stayed that way until the bottom of the tenth when Nava, pinch-hitting for Gomes, drew a leadoff walk against Ronald Belisario. Betts sacrificed him over to second, leading Ventura to order that Drew be intentionally walked (probably the only time Drew will get four free balls all year). With Daviid Ross running on fumes after catching ten innings, Farrell brought in a fresher Carp off the bench.

Sitting in a 2-2 count, Carp went with the pitch and slapped it to left field. Nava motored around third and headed home, getting there just ahead of Dayan Viciedo's errant throw. And with that, the Red Sox had themselves two hard-fought wins. Hopefully the Fenway Faithful enjoyed them, because cased on the team's current status as a glorified PawSox and their inability to string wins together this year, it could be a while before they win two in a row there again.

50 Homer Dreams

Balls are flying off the bats of Abreu (pictured), Cruz, and Encarnacion.
But can they keep it up? (Chicago CBS Local)

At the halfway point of the season and three players, all American Leaguers, are on pace to finish the season with approximately 50 home runs.

Considering that the past six seasons have produced only two 50-homer campaigns--Jose Bautista's out-of-nowhere 54 in 2010 and Chris Davis's equally surprising 53 last year--it's doubtful that even one of them will reach the 50 homer plateau. But as it stands, all three are on track to do so or at least come close, and that alone is reason enough to stop and take notice.

Atop the leaderboards are Nelson Cruz and Jose Abreu, both with 26 bombs under their belts after going deep yesterday to break a three-way tie with Edwin Encarnacion, who's still stuck on 25. All are on pace to establish career highs, if not reach the 50 home run benchmark that defines a truly historic offensive campaign (well, unless you're Brady Anderson).

Baseball has not had multiple hitters with 50 or more home runs in the same season since 2007, when Alex Rodriguez (54) and Prince Fielder (50) both cleared the half-century mark. To find the last time two American Leaguers did so, you'd have to go back more than a decade to 2002, when A-Rod ripped 57 and Jim Thome tagged 52.

Three hitters exceeding 50 home runs in the same season is exceptionally rare, so much so that it's only happened twice in baseball history (which, if I'm not mistaken, dates back to the stone age). Both times performance enhancing drugs were involved, of course. The most recent occurrence was in 2001, when an "enhanced" Barry Bonds belted 73 to break Mark McGwire's single season record and eclipse fellow National Leaguers Sammy Sosa (64) and Luis Gonzalez (57). The only other time a trio topped 50 was in another monumental season for long balls; 1998, when McGwire mashed 70, Sosa socked 66, and Ken Griffey Jr hammered 56 in the most exciting home run race since Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris duked it out for Babe Ruth's record back in the summer of 1961.

Abreu, Cruz, and Encarnacion are all great power hitters, but certainly not on the Hall of Fame levels of those aforementioned stars. Which begs the question: can any of these guys reach 50 home runs, let alone all three?

Cruz, the oldest of the bunch at 34, appears to be the long shot due to his age and the fact that he's never even hit 35 home runs in any season. He also must contend with the tough pitching staffs of the AL East, which boasts dominant hurlers such as Masahiro Tanaka, Jon Lester, and David Price, among others. Lastly, he's historically struggled in August, in which he has the fewest home runs and second-lowest OPS of any month, meaning he's a good bet to tail off in the second half.

That said, Cruz does a great job of getting the ball in the air with more fly balls than ground balls to date, an approach well-suited to a homer-friendly park like Camden Yards, where Cruz plays half his games. Additionally his 24.3 percent HR/FB rate, a career high, is pretty reasonable considering that he's been over 21 percent three times before, including last year. So while I wouldn't bet on Cruz, I wouldn't count him out just yet, either.

For Encarnacion, this year could be shaping up to be a repeat of last year, when he also went yard 25 times in the first half, only to fade down the stretch and end the season at 36. Still, he does have more home runs than anyone since the start of the 2012 season, and he's also two and a half years younger than Cruz, who also hails from the Dominican Republic. The notoriously streaky first baseman will need to avoid another month like his April (two taters, .413 SLG) or replicate something approximating his monster month of May (18 dingers, .763 SLG). Like Cruz, Encarnacion also does a great job of lifting fly balls, with nearly half of his batted balls qualifying as such. His HR/FB, just south of 20 percent, is a career high but still has room to grow, especially during the summer months when the ball tends to fly out of ballparks.

As for Abreu, no one really knows what he's capable of. It is his first season, after all, which means it's probably only a matter of time before he endures a prolonged slump, as his 73/18 K/BB ratio seems to suggest. There's also no way he'll be able to sustain his current HR/FB rate, which is currently pushing up against 36 percent. He'll need to start hitting more fly balls to balance out his inevitable regression in that department, for his fly ball rate is currently lower than his HR/FB rate, which just screams fluke.

Then again, the Cuban rookie needed just 71 games to bash his 26 home runs, so with a full slate of games in the second half it's not unreasonable to think he'll at least match that number, if not exceed it. His future is the hardest to predict, but he's done nothing except set the world on fire since his debut back in April. it doesn't hurt that he calls the homer-friendly U.S. Cellular Field home. He's also just 27, in the heart of his prime and at the peak of his powers, so who's to say he can't hit 50? For now, at least, McGwire's rookie record of 49 four-baggers appears to be in jeopardy, as does Albert Belle's franchise record of the same number.

If I had to bet on one to cross the 50-homer threshold, I'd pick Abreu simply because his raw power is so ridiculous. Cruz and Encarnacion are playing at their full potential, but there's a possibility, however slight, that Abreu hasn't reached his yet and could get even better with experience, a frightening proposition for any person who throws a baseball for a living. The sky's the limit for him, assuming he can avoid another trip to the Disabled List this year. Hopefully he's one and done.

Speaking of the DL, Cruz is always a health-risk, and frankly I wouldn't be surprised if he fell short of 40 even without getting hurt. Encarnacion's not a model of durability either: like Cruz, he has only one with season with more than 150 games played. I'm also not convinced he has 25 more homers in him this year, especially given his propensity for withering cold spells, but fully ackowledge that a great month of July could put him close to 40 with a third of the season left to play.

But regardless of where they end up, all three have put together marvelous first halves worthy of All-Star recognition. They're definitely worth keeping an eye on as the summer progresses, because if all three maintain their current paces they'll become the first trio of American Leaguers to hit 50 home runs in the same season. That would be pretty cool.

Beckham Back on Track?

After four straight subpar years, has Beckham finally figured it out?

I don't want to speak too soon here, but is it possible that Gordon Beckham is finally enjoying the breakout season that's long been expected of him?

Now 27, the White Sox second baseman burst on the scene in 2009 by hitting .270/.347/.460 as a 22 year-old rookie. He basically had the season that Wil Myers had last year, when Myers was a 22 year-old rookie.

Beckham '09-378 AB 58 R 102 H 28 2B 14 HR 63 RBI 174 TB 7 SB .270/.347/.460  2.1 bWAR
Myers 2013--335 AB 50 R  98 H 23 2B 13 HR 53 RBI 160 TB 5 SB .293/.354/.478  1.9 bWAR

Naturally, people expected big things from Beckham. He looked like a future All-Star, a middle infielder with good patience, 40 doubles/20 homer upside and a dash of speed (sounds like Ben Zobrist or Dustin Pedroia, doesn't it? He was going to be a franchise centerpiece for years to come.

It didn't happen. Over the next four years Beckham became an annual disappointment, batting a combined .244/.306/.364 while averaging just 10 home runs and 44 RBI per season. During the time when he was supposed to make strides as a ballplayer, he took major steps back instead. His batting average tumbled, never even matching the .270 mark from his rookie year. His OBP fell with it, plummeting below .300 in 2010 and 2011. His slugging has been below .380 every year since. His walk rate nosedived, his whiff rate went up, and his power was seldom seen. Beckham never came close to matching his wonderful rookie season, much less surpassing it. He was barely above replacement replacement, and with each passing year the glow of his rookie season receded further into the past.

Until this year. Left for dead after playing only 103 games last year--his fewest total since his rookie year (also 103)--and sitting out the first three weeks, Beckham's been better this year. Still not as good as he was in 2009, but significantly better than he's been during the interim. His .283 average and 108 OPS+ would both be career highs if he can sustain them, and he's already compiled 1.3 bWAR, more than any season save his rookie year. He's shown some pop as well by already matching last season's home run total of five in half as many games.

Beckham's resurgence, along with Jose Abreu's dominance, Alexei Ramirez's huge start, and Chris Sale's near--perfection on the mound, is one of the many reasons why Chicago stands only four and a half games out of first place in the AL Central. As Beckham's improved this year, so have the White Sox.

When digging deeper to see if Beckham's breakthrough is legit, I couldn't come to a definitive conclusion. His BABiP is up to .325: not just the highest it's ever been, but 40 points above his career average. He's hitting a lot more ground balls and a good number of line drives, so it stands to reason that his BABiP would improve. However, he's also walking less than ever before and striking out more frequently than he did the last two years. Normally that would be cause for concern, but his plate discipline numbers show that he's exhibited more restraint in laying off pitches outside the strike zone. As for the power, his HR/FB rate is the highest it's been since his rookie year, but he does play half his games in a homer-friendly park, so good fortune in that department is to be expected.

I can't make heads nor tails of Beckham this year. But then again, how does one explain his career? Perhaps Beckham was thrust into a starting role too soon. Maybe moving from third to second base after his rookie year made him uncomfortable. Or it could very well be that his rookie season was nothing more than a fluke, and the four horrible years that followed represented his true talent level.

Whatever the reason, it's clear that Beckham's playing better this year and has probably saved his career in the process (at least for now). At this point it's doubtful that he'll ever develop into the All-Star caliber player he seemed poised to become after finishing fifth in the 2009 AL Rookie of the Year voting. But if he can just play somewhere near that level again, I'm sure the White Sox would take it in a heartbeat.

Abreu's Awesome Start

Abreu is tearing it up in his American debut (ESPN SweetSpot Blog)

When Cuban sensation Jose Abreu signed a six-year, $68 million deal with the Chicago White Sox last winter, we knew he was going to be good. I'm just don't think anyone expected him to be this good. 

After capping last night's three-hit, six-RBI performance with a walk-off grand slam that lifted the Chicago to a 9-6 win over the Tampa Bay Rays, Abreu became the first rookie in major league history to hit nine home runs before the end of April. The 27-year old first baseman now holds a tie of the major leagues in home runs (with a resurgent Albert Pujols), RBI (with Giancarlo Stanton and Chris Colabello), total bases (Pujols again), and extra base hits (with Josh Donaldson). He's also slugging .632, the fourth-highest mark in baseball behind Troy Tulowitzki, Charlie Blackmon, and Pujols.

I know I'm not breaking any new ground here, but it sure looks like he's the real deal, folks. Baseball's next big thing has arrived.

Abreu, who already has three multi-homer games on the young season, has come out swinging for the fences. He's already struck out 25 times in 24 games, and when he does make contact 40 percent of the time he hits it in the air. Nearly a third of his fly balls have left the yard, an unsustainable pace, but with the homer-friendly Cell as his home park he might be able to keep it up for a little longer.

With five home runs and 13 RBI in his past six games, Abreu can't get much hotter. His sizzling start is a big reason why the White Sox are in second place in the AL Central entering play today, and why they've scored the most runs in baseball thus far. It goes without saying that if Abreu can continue to power Chicago's offense, he'll be a lock for AL Rookie of the Year and serious MVP consideration.

But for now, let's see if he can continue adding to his impressive spring numbers. His 27 RBI are tied with Pujols for the most by a rookie in April. So if you've got nothing better to do on a Saturday night, you might as well check-in on Abreu's at-bats. He might just make history.

Peavy Perfect Fit

The Red Sox made a trading deadline splash by acquiring Peavy

Boston Red Sox GM Ben Cherington bolstered his starting rotation today via a three-way trade that brings Jake Peavy to Beantown and sends Jose Iglesias to Motown.

This is a great move for the Sox, who don't expect Clay Buchholz to return until September and needed another arm for their playoff push. Peavy, an All-Star last year, is 8-4 with a 4.28 ERA over 13 starts so far in 2013. He solidifies a formidable rotation that already features Jon Lester, John Lackey, Ryan Dempster, and Felix Doubront, pushing rookie Brandon Workman into the bullpen.

Age and injuries have taken their toll on the 32 year-old's arm and velocity in recent years. While he's no longer the Cy Young-caliber starter he was half a decade ago, he's still an above average hurler who can make a difference down the stretch. Peavy's posted stellar peripherals to date, including a 4.47 K/BB ratio (the best mark of his career), and 1.14 WHIP. His 8.6 K/9 rate is the highest it's been since 2009, and his 3.68 xFIP is right in line with his career mark of 3.65. With better luck, his ERA could easily be half a run lower.

Credit Cherington for netting a strong return in Peavy without having to surrender much in the way of prospects: three so-so guys, none of whom are named Xander Bogaerts or Jackie Bradley Jr. The club won't miss Iglesias, either, even though he's one of the best defenders around and was hitting .330 at the time of the trade. The simple truth is that Iglesias, who has no power whatsoever and is slumping badly (.216/.250/.225 since June 26th), isn't a capable major league hitter and probably never will be. If he was, John Farrell wouldn't be batting him ninth. With Bogaerts and possibly Will Middlebrooks waiting in the wings, Iglesias was expendable with trade value that might never be higher. Cherington was smart to deal him while his numbers were still inflated by his .376 (and falling) BABiP.

There are two more things I like about this deal. The first is that Peavy, who is under contract for next year, isn't merely a two month rental. Barring injury, he'll play a prominent role with the Sox in 2014. The second is that the departure of Iglesias creates a vacancy at third base. Normally that would be a bad thing, but in this case it opens the door for Bogaerts to join the big club in the near future. The 20 year-old phenom has been hitting well with Pawtucket (.854 OPS) and deserves a crack at the Show.

No offense to Brock Holt, but hopefully Cherington doesn't make Bogaerts wait much longer.

AL Central Preview

1st Place--Detroit Tigers
2012 Record: 88-74
2012 Pythagorean: 87-75
2013 Projected: 92-70
The reigning American League champs should have no trouble winning their third straight division title in 2013. On paper, they're clearly the best team in the division and only got better over the offseason. Victor Martinez returns from a lost 2012 to join Motown mashers Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder in the heart of the order. Letting Delmon Young walk is addition by subtraction, whereas signing Torii Hunter is simply pure addition (unless the 37 year-old falls off a cliff). Austin Jackson quietly blossomed into one of the sport's top center fielders after adopting a more patient approach at the plate and could have an Andrew McCutchen-kind-of-year. I think Alex Avila bounces back after hitting .243 with nine home runs last year, but don't see him returning to 2011 form (neither will Jhonny Peralta). The Tigers have the best pitcher on the planet in Justin Verlander and a strong rotation to back him up. Max Scherzer got off to a rocky start last year but still posted the best strikeout rate in the majors last year. What's more, he compiled a sparkling 2.53 ERA after June 13th, better than Verlander's 2.61 mark over the same stretch. I say it every spring, but this might be the year he finally takes the leap. Detroit re-upped with Anibal Sanchez for five years and $88 million, which is a bit pricey for a number three but not bad considering he's pitched about as well as Zack Greinke (who got much more than that) over the past three seasons. Don't worry about Doug Fister's spring training woes--he'll be fine. Overall, the Tigers are deeper and more balanced than last year, so I'd be shocked if anyone else wins the AL Central.

2nd Place--Chicago White Sox
2012 Record: 85-77
2012 Pythagorean: 88-74
2013 Projected: 83-79
Robin Ventura's White Sox spent most of the season in first place, only to falter at the finish line and cough up the division in the season's final week. Chicago had a quiet offseason, letting Kevin Youkilis and A.J. Pierzynski walk but keeping the rest of their roster intact. Youk will be missed at the hot corner, esepcially since his replacement (Jeff Keppinger) offers little power and average defense at best. Pierzynski's departure opens the door for Tyler Flowers to play behind the plate everyday and infuse some youth into a veteran lineup. 37 year-old Paul Konerko has shown no signs of slowing down and should continue to be a force in the heart of Chicago's order along with Alex Rios and Adam Dunn, both of whom rebounded from miserable 2011s. In the outfield, Dayan Viciedo has 30-homer potential and Alejandro de Aza is a rock solid leadoff hitter/center fielder. The rotation is headed by two aces--2012 breakout Chris Sale and former Cy Young winner Jake Peavy--both of whom must sustain their success if Chicago is going to have any chance at keeping up with the Tigers this year. The oft-injured Peavy, 31, is hardly a sure thing given that he averaged just 17 starts per year from 2009-2011. Sale, soon to be 24, is a Verducci effect candidate after approaching 200 innings in his first full season as a starter. John Danks, Gavin Floyd, and Jose Quintana round out the rest of the rotation with Hector Santiago ready to step in if needed. The bullpen looks good for the most part, but Addison Reed needs to be more consistent if he wants to hang on to his closer's gig.

3rd Place--Cleveland Indians
2012 Record: 68-94
2012 Pythagorean: 64-98
2013 Projected: 80-82
Everything that could go wrong did go wrong for the Tribe last year, but they enter 2013 with significantly more talent. They upgraded their outfield outfield by signing Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, signing slugging corner infielder Mark Reynolds to a cheap one-year deal and trading for Trevor Bauer, who projects to be a future ace. Cleveland is stacked up the middle: catcher Carlos Santana is primed for a breakout in his age 27 season, Jason Kipnis and Asdrubal Cabrera are a great double-play tandem, and Bourn is the best defensive center fielder in baseball not named Mike Trout. All four could be All-Stars this year, and it seems safe to say the Indians won't finish second-to-last in runs scored like they did last year. Of course,  it doesn't really matter how many more times they cross home plate if Cleveland finishes dead last in ERA again. I can't say I love their rotation, which lacks a true number one and two, but the good news is that Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez and Josh Tomlin have nowhere to go but up. If they can at least pitched as well as they did in 2011, then Cleveland will be in much better shape. Zach McAllister showed some promise as a rookie last year and could be a nice boon if he continues to develop. With veteran skipper Terry Francona at the helm, Cleveland now has one of the best managers of the past decade at the reins. The Indians aren't talented enough to surpass the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central but have the pieces to move above .500 for the first time since 2007.

4th Place--Kansas City Royals
2012 Record: 72-90
2012 Pythagorean: 74-88
2013 Projected: 77-85
Kansas City is loaded with young talent but made a critical blunder in trading future superstar Wil Myers for James Shields, a number two pitcher with a career 4.67 ERA pitching outside of a dome. He's not going to be the difference-maker GM Dayton Moore is expecting, so KC will have to rely on continued growth and maturity from its young core of position players. Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar, Salvador Perez, and Eric Hosmer in particular all need to be better than they were last year (so does Jeff Francoeur, who followed up his strong Royals debut by reminding everyone just how bad he really is). Billy Butler and Alex Gordon just have to keep doing their thing. Whereas the Royals' starting lineup is teeming with potential and upside, their starting rotation is staffed by so-so veterans like Bruce Chen, Ervin Santana, and Jeremy Guthrie. Shields is a lock to provide 220 quality innings, but I see him taking a substantial step back after moving out of the pitcher's haven known as Tropicana Field. Kansas City boasts a bullpen full of live arms, none of whom seem capable of developing into usable starting pitchers. The Royals could have a winning season if everything goes their way, but that's not going to be enough to snap their 27-year playoff drought.

5th Place--Minnesota Twins
2012 Record: 66-96
2012 Pythagorean: 68-94
2013 Projected: 67-95
The Twins were the Junior Circuit's worst team in 2011 and 2012, but lucky for them the Houston Astros switched leagues and will spare them from claiming that dubious distinction for a third straight season. Thanks to a  Harmon Killebrew-type year from slugger Josh Willingham and rebounds from Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Ryan Doumit, the Twins fielded a decent lineup last year. Speedy outfielders Denard Span and Ben Revere will be missed, especially on defense. The Twins are never going to put up big offensive numbers so long as their playing half their games at Target Field. They need to be built around strong starting pitching, an asset that was in short supply last year. Breakout Scott Diamond was the only hurler to make more than 20 starts or complete more than 110 innings. Ron Gardenhire is counting on Diamond to be the ace of the staff, but Diamond is a mid-rotation starter at best. Furthermore, his complete and utter inability to miss bats (4.7 K/9 last year) makes him a likely bust candidate. Unlike last year, he figures to have some help in the rotation. GM Terry Ryan acquired Vance Worley, Mike Pelfrey, and Kevin Correia to fill out the staff, and while none of those names are exciting at least they are all capable big league pitchers. That's not saying much, but it represents a clear upgrade over last year's soft-tossing crew of Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, and Carl Pavano. Minnesota fans might as well start thinking about football season, because their baseball team isn't going anywhere anytime soon.