A's Bank On Butler Bounceback

Butler brings an above average bat to Oakland (Fox4KC)

By signing Billy Butler to a three-year, $30 million engagement, the Oakland A's made their first major tweak to the roster responsible for one of the more memorable late season collapses in recent history (largely because the team stopped hitting). In Butler, they add a righthanded, middle of the order bat to fill the hole left by Yoenis Cespedes, who was traded to Boston last summer in exchange for Jon Lester and Jonny Gomes.

A lead-footed DH, Butler isn't the all-around talent that Cespedes is, but he'll at least replace Cespedes's bat. Not the power, mind you, but through a better OBP and similar run production. Check out how their numbers match up since 2012, Cespedes's rookie season:

Butler:     1,745 AB 55 HR 255 RBI.292/.358/.436 .794 OPS 117 OPS+ 36 Rbat
Cespedes: 1,616 AB 71 HR 262 RBI .263/.316/.464 .780 OPS 116 OPS+ 37 Rbat

Butler is also six months younger than Cespedes, and figures to be much cheaper over the next three years.

But since Butler adds no value whatsoever in the field or on the bases, Oakland needs him to bounce back from a dismal 2014 in which he managed only nine home runs, 66 RBI, and a .702 OPS (95 OPS+). Butler was actually below replacement level last year at -0.3 bWAR, and the cash-strapped A's can't afford to pay $10 million a year to someone with negative or zero value.

Billy Beane's betting that last year was an anomaly for Butler, who was a consistently above average hitter prior to 2014. Through his first seven seasons, he owned a .298/.364/.459 slash line (122 OPS+) while averaging 17 home runs, 35 doubles, and 80 RBI per season. That's essentially Pablo Sandoval production (better, actually) at only one-third the price.

Digging deeper, it actually makes loads of sense to forecast similar figures from Butler going forward. He's only going to be 29 next year, after all, and has been exceptionally durable, averaging 158 games per season over the past six. Furthermore, nothing alarming jumps out from Butler's batted ball data last year, though he did struggle against two seam fastballs. The best and simplest explanation I can find for Butler's down year was a slow start, as he had a sub-.600 OPS with only one home run through Memorial Day weekend. That would also explain why his walk rate plummeted, as flailing hitters tend to press at the plate and try to swing their way out of it. I suspect that's what happened to Butler, who's normally a patient hitter. Besides, he was fine from the end of May forward, batting .290/.339/.420 after May 28th. If that's what he hits next year, Oakland has to be happy with that.

The only obstacle that could thwart a return to form for Butler is his new home park, O.co Coliseum, which has been unkind to hitters with its deep power alleys and expansive foul territory. Butler flourished in Kaufmann Stadium--which was well-suited to his gap-power--where he batted .312/.372/.477 (.849 OPS) as a member of the Royals, as opposed to .278/.341/.426 (.766 OPS) everywhere else. His numbers in his new ballpark are almost identical to his road splits, as he has a .759 OPS in 130 career plate appearances there. That said, hitters typically perform better at home regardless of where they play, and Butler's Oakland numbers are likely suppressed by the A's strong pitching staffs in recent years. He won't have to face the likes of Sonny Gray, Jeff Samardzija, and Scott Kazmir in 2015.

Lastly, I like this deal because I think its terms are very fair, perhaps even favorable, for Oakland, who didn't even have to sacrifice a compensatory draft pick because Kansas City failed to give Butler a qualifying offer. Three years and $30 million is a pretty safe investment for an under-30 impact bat, and there's plenty of room for value here. Butler only needs to be worth in the neighborhood of four to five wins over the next three seasons to justify his salary, and he's certainly capable of that after compiling 13 bWAR from 2009 through 2013 (an average of 2.6 per season). Even if he doesn't get all the way back to being the hitter he was two years ago, his ability to provide above average hitting over 140-150 games should be plenty valuable. His presence makes Oakland's lineup deeper and more formidable, which should go a long way towards helping the A's get back to the postseason next fall.

Martinez Deal a Mistake

Martinez was a beast last year, but is he worth the money? (ESPN)

Victor Martinez will likely retire as a member of the Detroit Tigers. The soon-to-be 36 year-old signed a four-year extension with the Tigers that will pay him close to $68 million, or $17 million per year. The deal will end shortly before V-Mart's 40th birthday.

Now, this is exactly the kind of deal teams should not be making. Banking on the second half of a player's 30s is almost always a terrible idea, especially when said player spent the first half of his career behind the plate. Usually when teams do that, it's because they're locking up a player's early 30s as well, so they hope to get some prime years out of him before his inevitable descent. In this case, the Tigers are merely signing up for Martinez's decline phase, and paying him handsomely for it to boot.

Make no mistake, Martinez will decline. There's nowhere for him to go but down after a monster 2014 campaign that saw him lead the major leagues in OPS at .974. The career-high 32 home runs at age 35 were clearly a fluke, as he had never hit more than 25 before and managed just 26 over the previous two seasons combined. His gap power is legit, as he's now exceeded 30 doubles in a season nine times, but the long ball power is not. He'll be lucky to crack 15 homers next year, let alone 20. He's also painfully slow, which explains how he managed to score only 87 runs despite leading the league in OBP and batting in the middle of Detroit's loaded lineup.

It boils down to this: the player that Martinez is going to be, a two-to-three win player (at best) whose value is tied up entirely in his bat, is simply not worth $17 million a year. He won't be next year, and he definitely won't be four years from now, even though his skill set will probably age well (he hardly ever strikes out and improved his walk rate after three straight seasons of middling walk totals). But if he's just a 10-15 homer guy with zero speed and no defensive value, that's not going to justify his paycheck. He'll also prevent Miguel Cabrera from DH'ing on a regular basis, which will lead to more wear and tear on Detroit's near-$300 million investment.

Coming off four straight division titles but still searching for their first championship since 1984, the Tigers are still in win-now mode and will benefit from his bat in the lineup next year. They'll probably get at least another productive season or two out of Martinez, but it's doubtful he'll still be pulling his weight in 2017 or 2018. V-Mart's deal also likely spells the end of Torii Hunter in a Tigers uniform, as Detroit doesn't have room on its roster for a 39 year-old defensive liability with Martinez as the everyday DH.

The best hitters ward off age and remain productive through their late 30s, and Martinez is a great hitter. But history tells us these deals fail more often than they work out. Betting on a player several years past his prime is always a gamble, one that rarely pays off.

Martinez MVP?

Martinez has had an MVP-caliber season, but does he deserve the hardware? (zimbio)

Now that the Tigers are back in first place there's been some talk about Victor Martinez for AL MVP recently. Setting aside the fact that this award has been Mike Trout's to lose for months now, I want to talk about his candidacy for a minute.

For starters, Martinez is absolutely a legitimate MVP candidate. I think it's pretty safe to say that he's been one of three best hitters this year. He has the third-best wRC+ (162) in baseball, tied with Andrew McCutchen and behind only Trout and Jose Abreu. He's second in wOBA (.407) to Abreu. also has the best OBP (.400) in the majors as well as the second-best batting average and OPS, third-best slugging percentage and adjusted OPS, and a top-10 spot in basically every hitting statistic you can think of.  He's done everything you could ever ask of a hitter: hit for average and power, get on base, drive in runs, and rarely strike out. By old and new-school stats, Martinez has been phenomenal.

But as great as V-Mart's been with the bat this year, he's not the American League's most valuable player. FanGraphs rates his total contributions at about four wins above replacement--a terrific number, but hardly MVP-worthy (behind a couple teammates as well). Baseball-Reference is a bit more generous and has him at 4.7 bWAR--again a great number, but outside the top-10 when looking at position players.

In fact, both sites rate Martinez's value on par with that of teammate Miguel Cabrera, the two-time defending MVP who won't be making it a three-peat due to a pretty substantial decline in offensive production. Though Martinez has been the better hitter this year, Cabrera closes the gap with his defensive value even though there isn't much of it.

So while Martinez has clearly been one of the best hitters in baseball this year, that's not enough to earn MVP honors because he's primarily a DH, having played just 36 games in the field thus far. I don't mean to say that a DH can never be an MVP (Don Baylor won in 1979 while David Ortiz and Edgar Martinez have come close), but rather think winning should be more difficult for them. When it comes to offensive statistics, they should be held to a higher standard than players who have to field a position for nine innings every day.

In my opinion, to win an MVP a DH must have substantially better numbers than anyone else in the league. He has to lap the field, blow everyone else away. He needs to have the best numbers and lead by a considerable margin. When your contributions come solely from your bat (and legs, but most DH's don't run very well, which is often why they're there to begin with), you better have some otherworldly numbers to make up for sitting on the bench the rest of the time.

And Martinez's numbers, great as they are, aren't head and shoulders above everybody else's. Abreu's are equally awesome, and so are Mike Trout's. Jose Bautista's aren't far behind. Martinez might be the best hitter in the American League this year, but not by much
Now if he were hitting around .350 with a four-digit OPS and more power, that would be a different story. He'd have a real case then.

I'll readily concede that Martinez, despite what WAR says, has been the most valuable position player on the Tigers this year. He's been huge out of the cleanup spot for them, providing consistently tremendous production all season long (from both sides of the plate, to boot). I think he should finish in the top five, maybe even the top three if he goes on one last tear. But he's not the American League MVP; that's been Mr. Trout for a few years now.

Martinez Mashing

For more than a year now, playing in the shadow of Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez has quietly been one of the best hitters in baseball.

It all started midway through last year, with Martinez scuffling at the plate after missing the entire 2012 season because of a torn ACL. Towards the end of June the then-34-year-old was hitting just .225/.283/.332, still shaking off the rust despite playing everyday for almost three full months.

Then, finally, the hits started falling for the slumping switch-hitter. He ripped off a 14-game hitting streak just before the All-Star Break, part of an incredible July in which he batted .390/.429/.581 with 41 base knocks. V-Mart remained red-hot through the dog days of August, roping 44 hits and batting .386/.449/.491 as a follow-up. In September he finally cooled off, but still strung together a 12-game hitting streak and batted .315/.367/.483 for the month to notch his fourth straight .300 season and seventh overall. All told, Martinez hit .370/.422/.519 over his final 82 games of the season, helping the Tigers go 49-33 in those games in narrowly beat out the Indians for the AL Central crown.

This year's been even better for Detroit's designated hitter, who's hitting for more power now than he has at any other point in his career. His .238 ISO and .560 slugging percentage are easily career bests, with the latter mark good for fifth in baseball among qualified hitters. His 23 home runs have him tied for ninth with Oakland bash brothers Brandon Moss and Josh Donaldson and are only two short of his personal high.

Even at Martinez's advanced age (35), it's not unusual to see him hitting .321 or getting on base more than 38 percent of the time. The five-time All-Star is a .304 career hitter who's career walk to strikeout ratio is nearly even. He still retains the tremendous bat speed, sharp reflexes and remarkable strike zone recognition needed to keep up with today's flamethrowing hurlers.

No, what's curious about this year is his unexpected power resurgence. While Martinez has always been a great hitter, his power appeared to be declining. His slugging and isolated power decreased in the two seasons since he left the Red Sox, and he swatted only 26 home runs in those years after exceeding 20 five times between 2004 and 2010. Given his advancing age, diminishing HR/FB rates, and the cavernous outfield dimensions of his home field, Martinez losing power was only natural. It seemed unlikely to ever return.

He's reversed that trend this year, however, by trading a good number of ground balls for fly balls. With more elevation in his swing, he's kept his GB/FB rate under one for just the second time in ten years. More fly balls typically translates to more big flies, but Martinez is also benefiting from the best HR/FB rate of his career. At 16.2 percent, it's more than double his rates from the last two seasons (both in the low sevens) and much higher than his career rate of 10.5 percent.

Could it be a small sample fluke? Maybe. Martinez crushed 20 home runs through June 25th but has only three since, which could be an indication that regression under way. According to ESPN's nifty home run tracker, seven of V-Mart's bombs have qualified as "just enough." Take those wall-scrapers away and he's sitting on 16, still a good number but nowhere near the pace that has him on track for his first 30-homer season. But with an average true distance of 389 feet and average speed off the bat of almost 104 miles per hour, many of Martinez's dingers have been legit. Five qualify as no-doubters and eleven left the yard by plenty. Even without the aforementioned "lucky" shots he'd have already exceeded his home run totals from his two most recent seasons. His HR/FB rate would be 11.3 percent, still above his career average and the highest it's been since 2009. Put simply, his power surge is not an aberration.

By improving his pop at 35, Martinez has found a new way to defy baseball's aging curve. Ballplayers typically don't have their best power seasons in their mid-thirties unless they're using certain performance enhancing substances (see Mark McGwire and Barry Bonds) or move to a hitting-friendly venue (Adrian Beltre, Hank Aaron). Comerica suppresses home runs, so that means the second explanation is out. I don't mean to suggest that Martinez is on something, but in this day and age a semi-suspicious power spike from a 35 year-old former catcher does make one wonder.

But Victor Martinez has always been a great hitter and displayed the ability to hit for power before, so I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. Great hitters like him stay great longer, especially when they don't have to play the field. All I'm really trying to say with this post is that V-Mart is a phenomenal hitter, and has been one for a long time. This year, he's been a great power hitter, which hasn't always been the case, especially recently, and that merits a closer look.

Ortiz On Way To Cooperstown

Holt and Pedroia congratulate Ortiz on his big three-run homer (Concord Monitor)

David Ortiz swatted the 450th home run of his career last night, a three-run bomb into Yankee Stadium's right field bleachers off Chase Whitley. By scoring Brock Holt and Dustin Pedroia, it gave Boston a 4-0 lead at the time in a game the Red Sox would go on to win 8-5.

The 25 year-old Whitley, a rookie making his first career start against the Boston Red Sox, became a footnote to history. To his credit, he got the best of Ortiz in their first meeting by getting him to bounce into an inning-ending double play. The second time around, though, Ortiz took him deep, making Whitley the 307th pitcher Ortiz has homered off. It was also his 41st against the Yankees and 52nd three-run shot

Papi's prodigious blast snapped a three-way tie for 37th place on the all-time home run list with Jeff Bagwell and Vladimir Guerrero, both contemporaries of Ortiz as well as deserving Hall of Famers. Among active players only Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Albert Pujols, and Adam Dunn have more, and Ortiz figures to pass Dunn shortly (Papi needs only two to tie Dunn, which he could do tonight).

And while Ortiz's numbers are down compared to what they've been the last three seasons, he's still having a good year at 38 and is on pace for another 30 homer, 100 RBI season (his eighth if he can reach both benchmarks). He might also be an All-Star for the tenth time, as he's currently outpolling every DH not named Nelson Cruz. The Red Sox might be struggling, but Ortiz's march towards Cooperstown continues.

Ortiz's Hall of Fame case is very polarizing, primarily because he's done most of his damage as a full-time designated hitter. Paul Molitor and Frank Thomas's inductions notwithstanding, people have been very harsh towards and critical of DHs when it comes to Cooperstown, and evaluating their batting statistics in general. Many feel it's appropriate to hold them to higher offensive standards because they don't contribute on defense. Others, who I assume for the most part are National League fans otherwise known as baseball "purists," dismiss their accomplishments altogether because they were one-dimensional, incomplete players.

Well, so are a lot of players who play the field (Willie McCovey, Harmon Killebrew, Ted Williams), and they actively hurt their team by doing do. I don't think it's fair to hold that against Ortiz, who would (and has) play(ed) the field when needed. Where he plays is the manager's decision, not his.

I don't even think it's fair to compare designated hitters to relief pitchers, both of whom have been deemed "specialists" akin to football's punters and special team players. Relievers throw one inning every other game, while DHs get three-to-five at-bats per game. Designated hitters have much more of an impact over the course of a season and a career than relievers do, which is reflected in their superior WAR figures. An elite hitter is much more valuable than an elite reliever or closer, and yet people seem to have no problem with relief pitchers going into the Hall of Fame.

So yeah, I think it's ridiculous that Edgar Martinez, one of the greatest hitters of all-time, still hasn't gotten the call 10 years after his retirement. I can only hope voters are more receptive to Ortiz (but, due to his PED-history, probably won't be), because he is also a deserving Hall of Famer in his own right.

The two keys to a Hall of Fame career are longevity and a terrific peak, and Ortiz has both. From 2003 through 2007 he was the American League’s best hitter, ranking first among AL players in doubles, walks, RBI, and OPS, second in home runs and third in the FanGraphs version of Wins Above Replacement (despite contributing nothing in the field or on the bases). Big Papi batted .302/.402/.612 over this five-year stretch, averaging 42 home runs and 128 RBI per season and finishing in the top five of MVP voting every year.

After a few down (but still good) seasons, Ortiz re-claimed his status as one of baseball’s best hitters, batting a combined .311/.401/.571 from 2011 to 2013. Even at 38 he seems to have plenty of juice left in the tank, and if that is indeed the case then several milestones, such as 500 home runs, appear to be in reach.

As for longevity, Ortiz has sustained his greatness for more than a decade and compiled some very impressive career numbers along the way. The nine-time All-Star just recorded his 2,000^th hit and 500^th double last year and continues to climb the all-time leaderboards. He ranks in the top-50 in slugging percentage, OPS, doubles, home runs, extra base hits, and AB/HR ratio.

Strictly based on his regular season body of work, Ortiz already has a compelling case for Cooperstown, and there are a host of other factors that strengthen his case even more.One of the best clutch hitters of all-time, Papi deserves extra credit for his legendary postseason heroics that spurred Boston to a trio of World Series titles since he joined the team in 2003. His three walk-off hits in the 2004 postseason come to mind, as do last year’s game-tying grand slam against Detroit in the ALCS and World Series MVP performance versus the Cardinals. His name is plastered all over the postseason leaderboards, hardly a surprise given that the man they call “Senor Octubre” always seems to rise to the occasion.

Ortiz has been exemplary off the field as well, embracing his status as a local legend and role model in the community. He founded the David Ortiz children’s fund in 2007. The following year, he released his own charity wine label (with all proceeds going to his children’s fund) and received UNICEF’s Children’s Champion Award. In 2011 he received the Roberto Clemente Award, given annually to the player who “best exemplifies the game of baseball, sportsmanship, community involvement and the individual's contribution to his team.” A leader on the field and off, Ortiz finished third in Boston’s 2013 mayoral race with 560 write-in votes.

Lastly, Ortiz deserves to be recognized as one of the best designated hitters in baseball history. His seven Outstanding Designated Hitter Awards and six Silver Slugger Awards are tops for a DH, and The Sporting News named him “Designated Hitter of the Decade” from 2000-2009. With the most hits, home runs, and RBI by a DH, he’s reached heights that no other designated hitter has.

Ortiz’s offensive numbers aren’t otherworldly, especially for someone who rarely plays the field and is a liability on the basepaths, but they’re still Hall of Fame-caliber. As one of the best hitters, Red Sox players, designated hitters, and postseason performers of all-time, Ortiz has done more than enough to merit induction. It seems his teammates were on to something when they bestowed a new nickname upon him last year: “Cooperstown.”

Butler Bouncing Back

Butler's been on a tear lately but still isn't hitting for power (RoyalsHOF)

The Kansas City Royals lost their second game in a row last night, falling 7-5 to the Seattle Mariners and dropping out of first place with Detroit's win over Cleveland. On a positive note for the Royals, their offense remained red-hot, collecting 14 hits off Hisashi Iwakuma and six Mariners relievers. Three of those base knocks came off the bat of Billy Butler, who raised his batting line to .281/.333/.365 with his 3-for-4 performance.

Butler, along with the rest of his teammates, has been swinging a hot bat lately. He's hit safely in 10 straight games and 15 of his last 16. It's been quite the turnaround for Butler, who as late as May 28th was hitting a lowly .235/.294/.299, well below his career batting line of .298/.364/.459 coming into the season.

It was strange to see Butler so lost at the plate for two full months. Over the last five seasons, he's been one of the most consistent hitters in the game, a perennial threat to bat .300 with 15-20 homers, twice as many doubles and 90 or so RBI.

Butler has always hit, and that's what made his ice-cold start so perplexing. In the wake of his power drop-off last year, there was talk that the 28 year-old DH had begun to suffer a premature decline. That he was done. He sure looked the part.

It was a rough first ten weeks of the season for Butler. Halfway through April, Country Breakfast was hitting .143. It took him 16 games to get his first extra base hit, 28 to sock his first homer (and another 39 to blast his second), and 43 to enjoy his first three-hit game. Kansas City's team-wide offensive woes were not the fault of any one man in particular, but Butler was perhaps most responsible. Batting third or fourth most nights, he's expected to be a run-producer and one of the team's top hitters. Through May 28th, he had just one home run, 20 RBI and a sub-.600 OPS. As a designated hitter his sole job is to hit, and he wasn't doing his job. Worse, he was a black hole in the heart of KC's order when they desperately needed somebody to pick up the slack, or even just live up to expectations.

It was during a three game series in Toronto at the end of May that Butler finally awoke from his slumber. He cracked two hits in the series opener, three hits in the middle game and two more in the finale. It was the first time all season that he'd strung together three consecutive multi-hit games. Over the past three weeks he's batted close to .400, raising his batting average nearly 50 points in the process. His OPS has climbed more than 100 points, from .593 to .698.

While it's encouraging to see Butler hitting again, it's still worrisome that he's struggling to drive the ball with authority. He's still searching for his third home run of the year and the power stroke that has more or less abandoned him since 2012, when he set career highs with 29 home runs, 107 RBI, 313 total bases, and a .510 slugging percentage/.197 ISo. He does have 16 doubles so far, which puts him on pace to end up with around 35, but he needs to start clearing the fences more regularly. Otherwise, Ned Yost is going to have to move him down in the order, because guys that can't even manage double digit home run totals have no business batting third or fourth (I doubt Yost will do this, however, considering that Butler has played every game so far in spite of his prolonged slump).

Will Butler's power return? It seems unlikely as long he continues to pound more than half of his batted balls into the ground, a bad strategy for someone widely regarded as the slowest player in the game. His HR/FB rate, currently below four percent, has never been under eight percent for an entire season and should come up. That's not going to make much of a difference, however, when 75 percent of the balls he puts into play aren't fly balls. Kauffman Stadium is also a notoriously difficult place to hit one out, so it doesn't help that he plays half his games there.

That said, as the weather warms and his home rate stabilizes, Butler should start hitting a few more balls out of the park. I'd be surprised if he doesn't reach 10 home runs for the seventh straight season, but not shocked. He's not the power-hitter he used to be, and he was never a great slugger to begin with. His days of challenging 20 homers are likely over, and barring a summer power binge he'll probably fall short of 15 dingers for the first time since 2008, when he was a 22 year-old sophomore.

Of course, Butler will still have value if he can continue to bat close to .300 with 30-40 doubles, good OBPs and strong RBI totals. But a decline in power is typically consistent with an erosion of other skills, batting or otherwise, so I'd expect him to start falling off as a hitter over the next few years as he gets into his 30s. Big players like him (think Boog Powell, Cecil Fielder, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard) rarely age well and Butler, a bat-only player, will be no different.

The Royals have a team option on him next year, and after that's up they'd be wise to let him go. Then again, we're talking about the Royals here, an organization that traded Wil Myers for James Shields and gave nearly 1,500 plate appearances to Jeff Francoeur. Never known for having much sense or smart decision-making skills, they'll probably give him a five-year extension.

Chris Carter AKA Carlos Pena

Carter hits bombs but doesn't do anything else (RantSports)

Remember the home run, whiffing, and walking machine known as Carlos Pena? The prized rookie traded off the Moneyball Oakland A's to supposedly make room for Scott Hatteberg? The same one who later emerged as an All-Star, Gold Glover, Silver Slugger, and home run champ with the Rays?

The 36 year-old free agent hasn't played since last year and is likely finished given his age and recent poor performance. But if you're a fan of Pena's and TTO players like him (Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds), fear not. One of his former teammates from Houston (what? he played for the Astros?) has taken up Pena's propensity for fanning, dingers, and low batting averages. Like Pena, he was shipped out of Oakland by Billy Beane early on in his career. Now he play's Pena's old position--first base--and wears Pena's old number--23.

His name is Chris Carter, and he is the righthanded version of Pena. Carter's numbers have been virtually identical to Pena's circa 2010-2012. In fact, Carter's 2013 is almost a dead-ringer for Pena's 2011, Pena's lone season with the beleaguered Chicago Cubs.

Pena 2011:   600 PA 497 AB 111 H 27 2B 3 3B 28 HR 80 RBI 2 SB .225/.357/.462 228 TB
Carter 2013: 585 PA 506 AB 113 H 24 2B 3 3B 29 HR 82 RBI 2 SB .223/.320/.451 228 TB

And since Opening Day 2011, their numbers are eerily similar as well:

Pena:   55 HR  166 RBI  435 K  .210/.339/.394 .733 OPS  103 OPS+  3.1 oWAR
Carter: 55 HR  148 RBI  382 K  .217/.315/.445 .761 OPS  109 OPS+  2.7 oWAR

Still toiling in mediocrity, Carter's on pace for similar numbers again this year, much like how Pena's 2011 was nearly a repeat of his 2010. Carter is what he is--a one-dimensional slugger--and has shown no willingness to cut down on his swing in hopes of sacrificing power for contact. He's currently batting below .200, but could very well wind up with 30 dingers. He's the top power source in Houston's lineup not named George Springer, and as long as he continues to bring the goods he'll remain their everyday DH.

But Pena showed how fast players of that ilk (see Jack Cust, Russell Branyan, Richie Sexson, Troy Glaus) can lose it. Once those fly balls stop leaving the yard, Carter won't have a shred of value and will be out of a job before long. Seeing as how he's in the heart of his prime at 27, that shouldn't happen for a few more years. When it does, it won't be pretty.

Until that day comes, let's appreciate Carter for what he is while we can. The rebuilding Astros might not have any better options at the moment, but it's only a matter of time before one comes along. And then Carter will be gone, long gone, like one of his many homers.