Thursday, May 23, 2013

Darvish Dominating

After a strong but somewhat uneven debut last year, Yu Darvish has emerged as the bona fide ace Nolan Ryan thought he was getting when he invested $112 million in the Japanese pitching phenom. Hailed as a preseason Cy Young favorite, Darvish has begun building the foundation for his case with a stellar start to his sophomore campaign.

Since coming within one out of a perfect game in his first start of the season, Darvish has been on a roll. The 26 year-old currently leads the majors in strikeouts (91), K/9 rate (12.3) and starts (10). He also sports a 7-2 record, 2.84 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 4.14 K/BB ratio while limiting opponents to a .179 batting average. At the rate he's going, he could punch out 300 batters by season's end, which hasn't happened since Randy Johnson passed the benchmark in 2002. What's more, 300 Ks would put him in the same club as immortal hurlers such as Bob Feller, Sandy Koufax, and Pedro Martinez.

He's improved his already-elite strikeout rate by making a key adjustment in his approach. Rather than trying to blow everyone away with his blazing fastball, as he seemed to do last year, he's relying less on his heater. Instead, he's going to his slider more than twice as often as he did last year, a wise decision given that his slider is the best in the business. As a result, Darvish is getting more swinging strikes and weaker contact than he did last year. He's keeping batters off-balance and on their toes instead of letting them sit on his fastball.

However, the main driving force behind Darvish's breakout is improved command. He's getting more first strikes, which allows him to get in the driver's seat and dictate how each at-bat plays out. Whereas he issued 89 free passes last season-fourth most in the American League--and posted a 4.2 BB/9 rate, he's trimmed his walk rate to 3.0 batters per nine innings in 2013. This improvement has helped him become more efficient with his pitches and last deeper into ballgames, as he's completed at least six innings in all but one of his starts this season.

Look for Darvish to shine in his first interleague start of the year on Monday against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Cabrera At It Again

Once again, Miguel Cabrera is far and away the best hitter in baseball
Last year, Miguel Cabrera became the first man in 45 years to lead his league in home runs, RBI, and batting average. This year, he could become the first player ever to win the Triple Crown in consecutive seasons.

Only two men have ever won multiple Triple Crowns, and their names are Ted Williams and Rogers Hornsby. Williams accomplished the feat five years apart, in 1942 and 1947, but might have won in 1943 had he not been serving his country during World War II. He nearly won in 1941, when his .406 batting average and 37 home runs paced the major leagues, but his 120 RBI fell five short of Joe DiMaggio's league-leading total.

Hornsby also came tantalizingly close to becoming a repeat Triple Crown winner. He won his first in 1922 but came within an eyelash of winning the year before. Rajah won the batting crown (.397) and RBI title (126) in 1921 but his 21 long balls were bested by High Pockets Kelly's 23. Hornsby won his second Triple Crown in 1925.

While it's still way too early to be talking about a serious Triple Crown run, the reigning MVP's hot start has put him on track to make history. Cabrera currently leads the major leagues in both batting average  (.384) and RBI (49) while ranking third in home runs (12), tied with Edwin Encarnacion and Mark Reynolds but just one behind league-leaders Chris Davis and Robinson Cano.

Cabrera is raking right now, and while his batting average is guaranteed to drop off he's still a good bet to win his third straight batting title. As for his power, it's possible the best is yet to come given how well he finished last season--36 home runs and 105 RBI from this date forward. While it's going to be almost impossible for him to sustain his current level of run production (he's on pace for 185 RBI thanks to his absurd .509/.586/.912 batting line with runners in scoring position), he could benefit from even more RBI opportunities once Austin Jackson returns from his hamstring injury early next week.

Until then, look for him to do some serious damage when the last-place Minnesota Twins come to the Motor City for a four-game set this weekend.

Monday, May 20, 2013

Middlebrooks Coming Around

Will Middlebrooks is heating up at the plate after a brutal start to the year
Will Middlebrooks continued his recent hot streak by belting a tie-breaking solo home run off Pedro Hernandez during Boston's 5-1 victory over the Minnesota Twins yesterday. Since May 10th, Middlebrooks is hitting .278/.316/.611 with eight extra base hits in nine games. He's still striking out too much (28.2 K%, same as Ryan Howard) and not walking often enough (a decidedly un-Kevin Youkilis-like 4.1 BB%), but at least he's providing power near the bottom of Boston's lineup. The 24 year-old appears to have put his early season slump behind him and will look to keep swinging a hot bat against the Chicago White Sox tonight.

5 Players to Worry About

Last week I looked at players who have started slowly but are bound to turn it around. Here are five players who are still struggling and probably won't rebound to the production levels we've come to expect from them:

Jimmy Rollins (.251/.302/.389)
J-Roll's walk rate and contact rates have fallen every year since 2010 while his whiff rate has increased, disturbing trends  for a 34 year-old shortstop. His infield hit rate and stole base numbers are down as well, suggesting that he's lost a step or two.

Paul Konerko (.224/.280/.340)
The 37 year-old is striking out more than ever before, his walks are down, and he's not making nearly as much hard contact. These stats, compiled by ESPN fantasy baseball analyst Tristan Cockcroft, pretty much tell the story here.
2012 first half: .195 isolated power, .223 well-hit average, 10.3 BB%
2012 second half: .174 isolated power, .205 well-hit average, 8.3 BB%
2013 to date: .116 isolated power, .164 well-hit average, 6.2 BB%
This drop-off is more than just a slump: it signifies an erosion in skills.

Josh Hamilton (.216/.271/.351)
Blame the pressure living up to his new contract if you wish, but the truth is that Hamilton has been a bad hitter for almost a full calendar year. From June 1st onward last year, he batted .245 while striking out in 28.7 percent of his plate appearances. So far this season he's been even worse. His walk rate has fallen off a cliff (down to 5.9) percent) and he's still striking out a ton. His pop-out rate has more than doubled. He's chasing way too many pitches out of the strike zone and swinging at the first pitch far too often. Unless he adjusts and corrects those bad habits, he's not going to pull out of this funk.

David Freese (.223/.292/.282)
Freese, an All-Star last year, didn't hit his first home run of the season until last Friday (at least it was a grand slam, so he got the most out of it). That was hardly surprising, though, given his off-the-charts 4.17 GB/FB ratio. He needs to stop pounding the ball into the ground and start elevating it into the air. He is 30, so it could be possible that what we're seeing is the beginning of a downward trend in his career.

Ryan Howard (.245/.282/.430)
It's no secret that Howard's days as an elite slugger are behind him. Since 2011, he's a .229 hitter with a 4.26 K/BB ratio. His walk rate has nosedived down to 5.5 percent and he's swinging the bat more than ever before. His new aggressive approach isn;t paying off though, since his contact rate is down and he's coming up empty more often. It doesn't help that the 33 year-old is completely and utterly helpless against southpaws, too.

The First Place(?) Yankees

This was supposed to be the year the New York Yankees tumbled from their perch atop the American League East. They were too old, inured, and washed-up. They'd grown weaker over the winter while their division rivals reloaded. The writing was on the wall, and some went so far as to predict that, come September, the Yankees would be bringing up the rear in the AL East.

Well here we are, a quarter of the way through the season, and such speculation seems premature at best, downright foolish at worst. The decrepit Yankees have defied the odds, overcoming every obstacle that's threatened to derail their quest for another division flag. Age? Irrelevant. Injuries? Not a problem. The battered Yankees have taken their lumps and bruises, losing Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Kevin Youkilis, Curtis Granderson, and now Andy Pettitte for large chunks of time, but still they keep winning.

How? Glad you asked.

1. Their cast-offs are stepping up
New York endured its fair share of criticism for filling out its roster with old, past-their-prime players that nobody else wanted. But while many of last winter's splashy acquisitions (Josh Hamilton, B.J. Upton, R.A. Dickey) have disappointed, the Yanks have gotten great early returns from several key additions:

Vernon Wells--The Yankees were mocked after trading for Wells, thereby adding another albatross contract to their bloated payroll. But the 34 year-old has enjoyed a renaissance in the Big Apple. His ten home runs rank second on the team to Cano as he's been a steady source of righthanded pop for a team that craves it.

Travis Hafner--Brian Cashman scored a massive bargain by signing the 35 year-old DH to a one-year, $2 million deal. Pronk's provided plenty of power batting cleanup for the Bronx Bombers. He also leads the team in OBP and OPS.

Lyle Overbay--Playing for his fifth team in four years, Overbay has been perhaps the most pleasant of all New York's surprises. He'd done a capable job filling in at first with Teixeira on the mend. The 36 year-old ranks second among Yankees in doubles, RBI, and total bases to Cano.

Not sure any of these guys will still be producing at a high level a couple months from now, but that won't matter so much when Jeter, A-Rod, Tex, and Grandy are all back in the lineup.

2. Robinson Cano is really good
Without his star-studded supporting cast, Cano has been forced to shoulder more of a burden on offense and be the "go-to" guy. New York needed Cano to step up and produce like the superstar he is. Well, after a rough first week of the season in which Cano went just 3-for-23, he's been the elite offensive force we all expected him to be. Tied for the league-lead in home runs with 12, he ranks second in total bases behind only Miguel Cabrera. He has hundreds of millions of dollars riding on his performance this year, so don't expect any lapses in focus or motivation from the multi-talented keystone.

3. Big Three in the rotation
The Yankees boast the second best ERA in the American League despite the struggles of Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova. CC Sabathia isn't quite as dominant as he once was, but that hasn't prevented him from taking care of business as the team ace. Hiroki Kuroda continues to age like fine wine and has been one of the best starters in the American League this year. Andy Pettitte was still somehow a dependable number three at age 40 before going on the Disabled List.

4. The long ball
Yankee hitters have been woefully ineffective with men on base, batting a collective .237/.303/.381 with men on. They've been even worse with runners in scoring position, batting .224/.312/.364 with runners in such situations. New York has compensated for this inability to manufacture runs by relying on the long ball. Their 52 dingers rank fourth in the AL and a dozen different Yankees have already homered this season.

5. Stellar bullpen
New York's bullpen, arguably the team's greatest strength entering the season, has performed as expected. David Robertson, Boone Logan, and Adam Warren have all been wonderful. But when it comes to Yankee relievers, the conversation starts and ends with Mariano Rivera. Mo, fully recovered from the torn ACL that ended his season last May, leads the majors in saves and has re-established himself as the best closer in baseball. When it comes to protecting a lead at the end of a game, the 43 year-old is money in the bank.

With Granderson back and Teixeira due to return by the end of the month, New York is only getting stronger by the day. That has to be a scary thought for their division rivals as they fight to wrestle away first place from NY in the coming weeks. Obviously there's still a long way to go, and I have my doubts about how such an old, injured roster will hold up over the summer, but for now it appears that those rooting for the Yankees' demise will have to wait until next year.