Friday, October 14, 2011

2012 Comeback Player of the Year Candidates

Jacoby Ellsbury and Lance Berkman were just named 2011's Comeback Players of the Year, and each selection was a no-brainer.  Ellsbury's 2010 was a lost season; he appeared in just 18 games due to rib injuries suffered during a collision with Adrian Beltre.  His two attempted comebacks only led to re-injury, and he was shut down in mid-August.  He came back with a vengeance this year, posting career highs in almost every category across the board and surpassing teammates Dustin Pedroia, Adrian Gonzalez and David Ortiz in the AL MVP race by leading the league in total bases while scoring 119 runs, stroking 212 hits, swiping 39 bags, batting .321 and providing plenty of pop out of the leadoff slot by smacking 83 extra base hits, knocking in 105 runs and slugging .552.  He also did his best to push Boston into the postseason by providing 7.2 bWAR and posting his highest monthly hit, double, home run, and total base figures in September.

Berkman, on the other hand, appeared in 122 games last season but suffered through his worst full year as a professional, setting career lows in every category and looking finished at the age of 34.  Not even a midseason trade to the Yankees and their short porch in right could rejuvenate the slumping switch hitter.  But after accepting a one year, eight million dollar contract from the Cardinals (a 46.4 percent pay cut), switching from first base to right field and improving his fitness routine last offseason, Berkman returned to form by beginning the season on a tear and finishing with a .301/.412/.547 (almost identical to his .296/.409/.545 career triple slash) line.  The All-Star also belted 31 homers, plated 94 runners, scored 90 runs and walked 92 times while providing lineup protection for Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday.  Not surprisingly, the Redbirds picked up his $12 million option for 2012.

So this got me thinking of players who had down seasons in 2011 but could rebound and take home some hardware next season...

AL
Alex Rodriguez-Was enjoying a decent season (minus the power stroke) before going down with a midseason torn meniscus from which he never really recovered.  He's 36 but could still put up good numbers with that park and lineup if he manages to stay healthy.
Carl Crawford-Disappointed in his first Boston season, but I'm predicting a Curtis Granderson-esque (minus the 40 big flies) turnaround in 2012.
Shin-Soo Choo-One of baseball's most underrated players missed half the season and struggled when he did play.  At 29 he's still in his prime and should return to his 20/20 .300 ways next year.
Joe Mauer-The power he flashed in his 2009 MVP campaign will never return when he plays half his games at Target Field, but a return to health (from bilateral leg weakness) and more games at 1B/DH should help recuperate his career low triple slash stats from 2011.
Kendrys Morales-Hasn't played since breaking his leg after awkwardly landing on home plate following his walk-off grand slam on May 29th, 2010.  The offensively challenged Halos need his .300-35-110 potential back in the heart of their lineup as Bobby Abreu and Torii Hunter decline.
Justin Morneau-The 2006 MVP and 2008 Home Run Derby champion missed half of 2010 and 93 games last season with a concussion and recurring symptoms.  Is only 30 years old.
Adam Dunn-Rough year for the big guy, who some (myself included) predicted would threaten 50 home runs with a move to the homer-friendly Cell. 
Alexis Rios-Notoriously streaky hitter suffered through more slumps than hot streaks in 2011.
Vernon Wells-Has a history of playing better in even-numbered years.
Ichiro Suzuki-Some bad luck on balls in play snapped his decade long streak of 200 hits with a .300 average, but Seattle should give him a breather every now and then (he led the league in games played during his age 37 season).
Francisco Liriano-No-hitter notwithstanding, Liriano endured his second tough season in the past three years.  Needs to cut his walk rate, five per nine in 2011, if he wants to return to his 2006/2010 form.
Ubaldo Jimenez-Hasn't pitched well since the middle of 2010, but should improve in his second tour of duty through the AL Central.

NL
Aubrey Huff-Has been up-and-down the last few seasons, so he's due for a good season in 2012.
Hanley Ramirez-Missed 70 games but was suffering through his worst season.  Will be 28 next season and should return to form.
David Wright-Like his fellow Gotham City third-sacker he had an injury-marred 2011 that resulted in career lows across the board.  Will be 29 next year and could benefit if the Mets move their fences in.
Jason Bay-Has been a huge bust for the Mets thus far, but at 33 he still has some rebound potential.
Buster Posey-Has a shot to be the 2012 version of Ellsbury
Jason Heyward-Suffered a sophomore slump, but is simply too talented to not improve next year.  Plus he's only 22, so last season could have resulted from growing pains.
Jayson Werth-Almost went 20/20 in an otherwise disappointing debut in the nation's capital.
Ryan Zimmerman-Was solid when he played, but missed over 60 games.  2012 will be his age-27 season, so watch out.
Adam Wainwright-Missed all of 2011, but should be good to go for 2012.
Johan Santana-See Wainwright, Adam.

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