Tonight, the Miami Heat will have the opportunity to close out Oklahoma City on their home court and deliver the first of eight championships that LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh promised two summers ago when they joined forces down in South Beach. They're so close they can practically taste that trophy. But now that the Thunder have their backs to the wall, I think they'll show America what their really made of. They're still the better team, and much too good to lose four in a row like this.
-Bold Prediction-If the Thunder win tonight, they will recover and go on to win the series. I know the odds of coming back from 3-1 deficits are microscopic, but if they can just get the series back to OKC then I think they'll win both of those home games. At the very least, I want another Game 7.
-But if they lose, James Harden will be the scapegoat. He's been hesitant to shoot, made crippling mistakes at inopportune times and has failed to execute during the fourth quarter. He's the X-Factor and he has to play better tonight. Otherwise Scott Brooks will have to hope Thabo Sefolosha can catch lightning in a bottle on offense.
-Miami seems to have learned a lot from last June's battle with Dirk Nowitzki's Dallas Mavericks, whereas OKC's youth has hindered them in their first finals appearance. They've looked overwhelmed by the moment. Miami seems much more comfortable.
-Give credit to Miami's role players. Shane Battier, Mario Chalmers, and Norris Cole have all been phenomenal, and the Heat wouldn't be in this position without them.
-Speaking of excellent role players, Nick Collison has played out of his mind. So much energy and hustle. 37 year-old Derek Fisher is a great veteran presence to have and can still make plays. His extensive playoff experience is especially valuable to a young team.
-Loved seeing Russell Westbrook silence the critics with a dominant stat line during Game 4--43 points on 20 of 32 shooting with seven boards and five assists. He was a man on a mission, and nobody was stopping him once he got into the lane. Yes, he can be reckless. He makes mistakes, takes dumb shots. and seems to forget that Kevin Durant plays on the same team as him. But everybody has their flaws, and a lot of the criticism he has to endure is undeserved. Because when he's on top of his game he's one of the best, most explosive players in the NBA. Reminded me of Rajon Rondo's performance in Game 2 of the conference finals against the Heat. The Thunder, like the Celtics, wasted one of the best single-game postseason performances by a point guard since the days of Magic Johnson.
-The officiating has been downright terrible/maddeningly inconsistent throughout the playoffs to the point where I can barely watch the games. I don't believe the series are rigged, as some sketpical fans claim, but sometimes it sure seems that way.
-Bold Prediction-The two-man SWAT team that is Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka will combine for ten blocks tonight.
-Lebron has found another gear in these playoffs, a run of sustained excellence that allowed him to fight through leg cramps and hit a dagger three in Game 4. It took him some time, but at the age of 27, he's finally figured it all out just like Michael Jordan did at the same age during the '91 playoff. Good for him.
-I say OKC will win, 97 to 92.
Thursday, June 21, 2012
Tuesday, June 19, 2012
Time to Cut Bait (Hitters)
For ESPN standard leagues. Hopefully by now you have alread sent these guys packing to the waiver wire. But if you've held on to these fantasy anchors, stashing them on your bench as you wait for them to start producing, it's time to let them go or convince a trade partner that he's buying low.
C Alex Avila (.250/.338/.429)
It's not easy saying goodbye to a 25 year old receiver who posted an .895 OPS, made the All-Star team and was deemed more valuable than CC Sabathia and Josh Hamilton last year, but I've lost all faith in Avila. For starters, his .366 BABiP last year was unsustainable, and it's dropped a full 60 points so far in 2012. He's also hitting more ground balls and fewer fly balls, trends that do not bode well for a slow-footed catcher who has yet to leg out an infield hit this season. His increased pop-up rate is also a cause for concern. It doesn't help that, aside from Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Austin Jackson, Detroit just isn't hitting this year. Hopefully he's had plenty of time to fine-tune his swing as he works his way back from a hamstring injury, but I have a bad feeling that he's going to struggle with his timing when he returns and/or gets hurt again (hamstring injuries are notoriously tricky) Avila is a solid backstop, just probably not as good as his 2011 season suggests. Best case scenario, I say he'll split the difference between his stellar(but fluky) 2011 and subpar 2010. I think this is going to be a rough couple months for him.
Replacement Options-Jarrod Saltalamacchia, A.J. Ellis, Wilin Rosario,
1B Gaby Sanchez (.192/.237/.281)
If you waited until the middle rounds to fill out your first base slot, you may have wound up with Sanchez, a first time All-Star in 201. With the addition of Jose Reyes, a bounceback from Hanley Ramirez and continued growth from Giancarlo Stanton it seemed reasonable to project Sanchez for a typical Adam LaRoche 20-90-.270 campaign, or at least match his figures from the previous two years. But those final Eric Hosmer-like numbers (35 doubles, 19 bombs, 78 RBI) were largely inflated by a big first third of the season. What you probably didn't know is that beginning on June 6th last year, he batted a lowly .231/.326/.368 over his final 102 games. That lengthy slump has persisted into this year as well. His plate discipline has taken a major step backwards, as he's being less selective and making more weak contact. His walk and K rates have both gone in the wrong direction, and despite hitting the ball in the air half the time, he has just one home run to show for it. The Marlins sent him down to AAA for three weeks to try to get him back on track, but since his return to the Show he's been even worse, with only four hits and two RBI in 24 at-bats. Luckily for him, Miami doesn't have any other proven first baseman on the roster at the moment, so he'll continue to see regular playing time.
Replacement Options-Mitch Moreland, Kendrys Morales, Carlos Pena
2B Jemile Weeks (.222/.307/.321)
I could just as easily have put his older brother here, but I'm holding on to Rickie, who has a more established track record and has raised his batting average 20 points over the past eight games. The younger Weeks helped many a fantasy team over the final four months with his .303 batting average and 22 steals last season. This year he's battled the dreaded sophomore slump as a .252 BABiP, nearly 100 points lower than it was last year, is weighing the speedster down. It's good to see him walking more than twice as frequently while striking out less, but unfortunately neither trend helps his fantasy owners. He was drafted for steals (40 over the course of a full season seemed possible) but is on pace for around 25, not nearly enough to compensate for his lack of power (just ten RBI!) and low batting average. He's been caught in one-third of his career attempts, so he'll need to be more successful in order for the A's to let him run more.
Replacement Options-Gordon Beckham, Daniel Murphy, Rickie Weeks (buy at rock bottom and hope he turns it around)
3B Kevin Youkilis (.215/.301/.341)
As a Red Sox fan it really hurts me to say this, but it's time to let Youk go. Following a down 2011 his power has fallen off and even his typically strong batting eye has abandoned him. To make matters worse, he's 33 now and can't be counted on to stay healthy. The Greek God of Walks was in a rut before he landed on the DL at the end of April, and since coming back in late May he has just four RBI. Rookie call-up Will Middlebrooks, Boston's 23 year-old third baseman of the future, has outplayed his predecessor since arriving at the beginning of May. The Sox will likely look to deal their struggling third baseman at the deadline, so until then Bobby Valentine have to keep playing him and hope he boosts his trade value with a timely hot streak. I wouldn't count on it, though, because over his past 159 games the oft-injured Youkilis is a .247/.357/.431 hitter. He hasn't been an elite hitter in two years, and at this point in his career he appears to be past his prime.
Replacement Options-Chipper Jones, Mark Reynolds, Pedro Alvarez
SS Erick Aybar (.225/.261/.308)
Mike Scoscia keeps trotting him out there everyday for his Gold Glove defense, but he's been nothing short of atrocious at the dish. Aybar enjoyed a nice breakout in 2011, his age-27 season, when he set personal bests in just about every category except batting average; he stroked 33 doubles, swiped 30 bases and doubled his previous career high in home runs by launching ten out of the park. This season has been another story, though. He's always been a free-swinger who chases way too many pitches off the plate, but now he's making too much weak contact as a result; one in every five balls he puts in play is an infield pop up and his line drave rate is down to 13.9 percent In retrospect, expecting him to repeat the power was probably a bit of a stretch given his career .379 slugging percentage, but at the very least he should be counted on to be a steady source of steals. Unfortunately, it's hard to get too many of those when three quarters of your at-bats end with you headed back to the dugout. Scoscia bats him near the bottom of the order to minimize the damage he inflicts, so that only further limits his opportunities to score/knock in runs. His second half splits are nearly identical to his first half numbers, so don't wait around for him to pay you back with a post-All-Star break surge.
Replacement options; Zack Cozart, Yunel Escobar, Alexei Ramirez
OF Ichiro Suzuki (.259/.286/.369)
Eric Wedge had Ichiro batting third every game for the first two months, but since the calendar flipped to June he's been hitting from his traditional leadoff slot. This attempt to jumpstart his bat has failed, While he's on pace to finish with at least ten dingers for just the fourth time in his career, age and his low OBP are suppressing his steal totals. It's nice that he's a perfect nine-for-nine in attempts, but at the rate he's going he will set a new career low in that department. He'll never be a threat to score and drive in lots of runs in that lineup, either. In his prime Ichiro was a three category stud; you overlooked his meager home run/RBI totals because of his awesome ability to carry a team in batting average, runs scored and stolen bases. Last year all he was good for were steals, and this year he can't even provide many of those.
OF Jason Bay (.187/.253/.373)
Chronically injured, and borderline useless when he does play. I'm sure there were some optimistic owners out there who took a flier on him late in their drafts, but it's time to move on. He did provide double digit home runs (12) and steals (11) last season despite missing 39 games, and it was reasonable to assume that he might receive a small power boost after the Mets moved the fences in. Instead, he's continued to struggle with injuries and ineffectiveness. After spending six weeks on the shelf with a cracked rib he's currently on the seven-day Disabled List with a concussion, but the Mets expect him to miss more time than that and will likely move him to the 15-day DL. It's probably for the best because in the 22 games he has played, Bay's done more harm than good; he's struck out more than three times for every walk, knocked in just six runs and has only one multi-hit game. He's never been the same since his final season with the Red Sox, and as with Fred Lynn and Mo Vaughn before him, leaving the friendly confines of Fenway Park has to be considered biggest mistake of his career.
OF Brennan Boesch (.240/.273/.358)
Boesch, a third year-player entering his age 27 season, was a popular preseason breakout, especially after the Tigers announced he'd bat second, in front of the vaunted Cabrera-Fielder combo not seen since David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez. Even though he was nothing special in his first two major league campaigns, he looked like a solid fourth or fifth outfielder with some upside to fill out a team late in the draft. Instead, a slow start has derailed what was supposed to be a potential 20 home run campaign with lots of runs scored and a solid batting average. Jim Lelyland's shifted him around the lineup recently, but nothing seems to be working. Same goes for teammates Ryan Raburn and Jhonny Peralta.
Replacements-Juan Pierre, Raul Ibanez, Denard Span
C Alex Avila (.250/.338/.429)
It's not easy saying goodbye to a 25 year old receiver who posted an .895 OPS, made the All-Star team and was deemed more valuable than CC Sabathia and Josh Hamilton last year, but I've lost all faith in Avila. For starters, his .366 BABiP last year was unsustainable, and it's dropped a full 60 points so far in 2012. He's also hitting more ground balls and fewer fly balls, trends that do not bode well for a slow-footed catcher who has yet to leg out an infield hit this season. His increased pop-up rate is also a cause for concern. It doesn't help that, aside from Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Austin Jackson, Detroit just isn't hitting this year. Hopefully he's had plenty of time to fine-tune his swing as he works his way back from a hamstring injury, but I have a bad feeling that he's going to struggle with his timing when he returns and/or gets hurt again (hamstring injuries are notoriously tricky) Avila is a solid backstop, just probably not as good as his 2011 season suggests. Best case scenario, I say he'll split the difference between his stellar(but fluky) 2011 and subpar 2010. I think this is going to be a rough couple months for him.
Replacement Options-Jarrod Saltalamacchia, A.J. Ellis, Wilin Rosario,
1B Gaby Sanchez (.192/.237/.281)
If you waited until the middle rounds to fill out your first base slot, you may have wound up with Sanchez, a first time All-Star in 201. With the addition of Jose Reyes, a bounceback from Hanley Ramirez and continued growth from Giancarlo Stanton it seemed reasonable to project Sanchez for a typical Adam LaRoche 20-90-.270 campaign, or at least match his figures from the previous two years. But those final Eric Hosmer-like numbers (35 doubles, 19 bombs, 78 RBI) were largely inflated by a big first third of the season. What you probably didn't know is that beginning on June 6th last year, he batted a lowly .231/.326/.368 over his final 102 games. That lengthy slump has persisted into this year as well. His plate discipline has taken a major step backwards, as he's being less selective and making more weak contact. His walk and K rates have both gone in the wrong direction, and despite hitting the ball in the air half the time, he has just one home run to show for it. The Marlins sent him down to AAA for three weeks to try to get him back on track, but since his return to the Show he's been even worse, with only four hits and two RBI in 24 at-bats. Luckily for him, Miami doesn't have any other proven first baseman on the roster at the moment, so he'll continue to see regular playing time.
Replacement Options-Mitch Moreland, Kendrys Morales, Carlos Pena
2B Jemile Weeks (.222/.307/.321)
I could just as easily have put his older brother here, but I'm holding on to Rickie, who has a more established track record and has raised his batting average 20 points over the past eight games. The younger Weeks helped many a fantasy team over the final four months with his .303 batting average and 22 steals last season. This year he's battled the dreaded sophomore slump as a .252 BABiP, nearly 100 points lower than it was last year, is weighing the speedster down. It's good to see him walking more than twice as frequently while striking out less, but unfortunately neither trend helps his fantasy owners. He was drafted for steals (40 over the course of a full season seemed possible) but is on pace for around 25, not nearly enough to compensate for his lack of power (just ten RBI!) and low batting average. He's been caught in one-third of his career attempts, so he'll need to be more successful in order for the A's to let him run more.
Replacement Options-Gordon Beckham, Daniel Murphy, Rickie Weeks (buy at rock bottom and hope he turns it around)
3B Kevin Youkilis (.215/.301/.341)
As a Red Sox fan it really hurts me to say this, but it's time to let Youk go. Following a down 2011 his power has fallen off and even his typically strong batting eye has abandoned him. To make matters worse, he's 33 now and can't be counted on to stay healthy. The Greek God of Walks was in a rut before he landed on the DL at the end of April, and since coming back in late May he has just four RBI. Rookie call-up Will Middlebrooks, Boston's 23 year-old third baseman of the future, has outplayed his predecessor since arriving at the beginning of May. The Sox will likely look to deal their struggling third baseman at the deadline, so until then Bobby Valentine have to keep playing him and hope he boosts his trade value with a timely hot streak. I wouldn't count on it, though, because over his past 159 games the oft-injured Youkilis is a .247/.357/.431 hitter. He hasn't been an elite hitter in two years, and at this point in his career he appears to be past his prime.
Replacement Options-Chipper Jones, Mark Reynolds, Pedro Alvarez
SS Erick Aybar (.225/.261/.308)
Mike Scoscia keeps trotting him out there everyday for his Gold Glove defense, but he's been nothing short of atrocious at the dish. Aybar enjoyed a nice breakout in 2011, his age-27 season, when he set personal bests in just about every category except batting average; he stroked 33 doubles, swiped 30 bases and doubled his previous career high in home runs by launching ten out of the park. This season has been another story, though. He's always been a free-swinger who chases way too many pitches off the plate, but now he's making too much weak contact as a result; one in every five balls he puts in play is an infield pop up and his line drave rate is down to 13.9 percent In retrospect, expecting him to repeat the power was probably a bit of a stretch given his career .379 slugging percentage, but at the very least he should be counted on to be a steady source of steals. Unfortunately, it's hard to get too many of those when three quarters of your at-bats end with you headed back to the dugout. Scoscia bats him near the bottom of the order to minimize the damage he inflicts, so that only further limits his opportunities to score/knock in runs. His second half splits are nearly identical to his first half numbers, so don't wait around for him to pay you back with a post-All-Star break surge.
Replacement options; Zack Cozart, Yunel Escobar, Alexei Ramirez
OF Ichiro Suzuki (.259/.286/.369)
Eric Wedge had Ichiro batting third every game for the first two months, but since the calendar flipped to June he's been hitting from his traditional leadoff slot. This attempt to jumpstart his bat has failed, While he's on pace to finish with at least ten dingers for just the fourth time in his career, age and his low OBP are suppressing his steal totals. It's nice that he's a perfect nine-for-nine in attempts, but at the rate he's going he will set a new career low in that department. He'll never be a threat to score and drive in lots of runs in that lineup, either. In his prime Ichiro was a three category stud; you overlooked his meager home run/RBI totals because of his awesome ability to carry a team in batting average, runs scored and stolen bases. Last year all he was good for were steals, and this year he can't even provide many of those.
OF Jason Bay (.187/.253/.373)
Chronically injured, and borderline useless when he does play. I'm sure there were some optimistic owners out there who took a flier on him late in their drafts, but it's time to move on. He did provide double digit home runs (12) and steals (11) last season despite missing 39 games, and it was reasonable to assume that he might receive a small power boost after the Mets moved the fences in. Instead, he's continued to struggle with injuries and ineffectiveness. After spending six weeks on the shelf with a cracked rib he's currently on the seven-day Disabled List with a concussion, but the Mets expect him to miss more time than that and will likely move him to the 15-day DL. It's probably for the best because in the 22 games he has played, Bay's done more harm than good; he's struck out more than three times for every walk, knocked in just six runs and has only one multi-hit game. He's never been the same since his final season with the Red Sox, and as with Fred Lynn and Mo Vaughn before him, leaving the friendly confines of Fenway Park has to be considered biggest mistake of his career.
OF Brennan Boesch (.240/.273/.358)
Boesch, a third year-player entering his age 27 season, was a popular preseason breakout, especially after the Tigers announced he'd bat second, in front of the vaunted Cabrera-Fielder combo not seen since David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez. Even though he was nothing special in his first two major league campaigns, he looked like a solid fourth or fifth outfielder with some upside to fill out a team late in the draft. Instead, a slow start has derailed what was supposed to be a potential 20 home run campaign with lots of runs scored and a solid batting average. Jim Lelyland's shifted him around the lineup recently, but nothing seems to be working. Same goes for teammates Ryan Raburn and Jhonny Peralta.
Replacements-Juan Pierre, Raul Ibanez, Denard Span
Friday, June 15, 2012
Some Random Thoughts
Baseball
-On Wednesday night's Yankees/Braves game, in the top of the eighth inning in a 3-2 game with Dewayne Wise in scoring position and one out, Alex Rodriguez drew his first intentional walk of the season. Beginning in 2010, A-Rod has received just one intentional walk each season. There's a multitude of explanations for this; he's getting older, losing his power, and typically has a potent RBI machine batting behind him in Robinson Cano or Mark Teixeira. Still, it's mind-boggling. You think one of the best hitters of all time would receive a little more respect. After a slow start to the season he's been more productive of late, and if he stays healthy he should threaten 30 home runs and 100 RBI. Traditionally August is his best power month, and since coming to New York he's had a knack for hitting well in September.
-Is Todd Helton Hall-worthy? I think so. For the first half of the last decade he was probably the best hitter in baseball not named Barry Bonds. The counting numbers don't blow anyone away, but his rate stats are elite, even if they are somewhat inflated by Coors Field.
-Congrats to Matt Cain for tossing the first perfect game in Giants history. The 27 year old has quietly made the leap from great starting pitcher to an elite, Cy Young caliber hurler (reminiscent of Cole Hamels last season). Unfortunately for him, two-time winner Tim Lincecum's struggles have dominated the headlines in San Fran. No matter what Cain does, he just can't seem to escape Lincecum's shadow; his entire career he's been the Don Drysdale to Lincecum's Sandy Koufax. Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong and even Barry Zito have all picked up the slack for their slumping ace.
-Feel like Mark Trumbo is this year's Mike Napoli.
-Can Adam Dunn hit 50 homers? His career high is 46, set in 2004. He has never hit more than 40 in any other season, but I think he could do it, especially in that ballpark.
-Albert Pujols is back, baby. Still waiting on Adrian Gonzalez to turn it around.
-Joey Votto, not Josh Hamilton, is the best hitter in baseball right now.
-Derek Jeter really cooled off after that hot start. His numbers still look good because of that torrid April, but I'd bet he finishes the season batting below .300.
Basketball
-Kevin Durant doesn't miss in the fourth quarter. Period.
-Which beard has more character? Brian Wilson's or James Harden's?
-Can't decide which point guard is the fastest/most explosive; Russell Westbrook, Rajon Rondo, Derrick Rose or Ty Lawson.
-Knew with absolute certainty LeBron James' potential dagger three late in Game 2 had zero chance of going in. I know he was letting the clock wind down, but too often he seems to settle for those shots. He should be like Paul Pierce or Kobe Bryant, who at least make a move toward the basket and pull-up at the elbow if they can't get to the rim. Otherwise, King James enjoyed another monster performance, and finally got some help from Dwyane Wade.
-Speaking of LBJ, can't believe he played all 48 minutes but didn't get called for a single foul in Game 7 of the Celtics series. I can't stand the officiating, especially all the offensive fouls. In my mind, you should only call an offensive foul if it's blatant. Stop rewarding floppers for diving on the court after minor contact.
-Originally I had Thunder winning in six, but now believe the series will stretch over the full seven games. These teams are just too evenly matched.
-As far as Big Threes go, give me Durant, Westbrook and Harden over James, Wade and Chris Bosh
-Brandon Bass opted out of his contract and became a free agent. I want him to come back, but if he wants to move on then let him go. Rather use that money to try to keep Kevin Garnett or Ray Allen.
-On Wednesday night's Yankees/Braves game, in the top of the eighth inning in a 3-2 game with Dewayne Wise in scoring position and one out, Alex Rodriguez drew his first intentional walk of the season. Beginning in 2010, A-Rod has received just one intentional walk each season. There's a multitude of explanations for this; he's getting older, losing his power, and typically has a potent RBI machine batting behind him in Robinson Cano or Mark Teixeira. Still, it's mind-boggling. You think one of the best hitters of all time would receive a little more respect. After a slow start to the season he's been more productive of late, and if he stays healthy he should threaten 30 home runs and 100 RBI. Traditionally August is his best power month, and since coming to New York he's had a knack for hitting well in September.
-Is Todd Helton Hall-worthy? I think so. For the first half of the last decade he was probably the best hitter in baseball not named Barry Bonds. The counting numbers don't blow anyone away, but his rate stats are elite, even if they are somewhat inflated by Coors Field.
-Congrats to Matt Cain for tossing the first perfect game in Giants history. The 27 year old has quietly made the leap from great starting pitcher to an elite, Cy Young caliber hurler (reminiscent of Cole Hamels last season). Unfortunately for him, two-time winner Tim Lincecum's struggles have dominated the headlines in San Fran. No matter what Cain does, he just can't seem to escape Lincecum's shadow; his entire career he's been the Don Drysdale to Lincecum's Sandy Koufax. Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong and even Barry Zito have all picked up the slack for their slumping ace.
-Feel like Mark Trumbo is this year's Mike Napoli.
-Can Adam Dunn hit 50 homers? His career high is 46, set in 2004. He has never hit more than 40 in any other season, but I think he could do it, especially in that ballpark.
-Albert Pujols is back, baby. Still waiting on Adrian Gonzalez to turn it around.
-Joey Votto, not Josh Hamilton, is the best hitter in baseball right now.
-Derek Jeter really cooled off after that hot start. His numbers still look good because of that torrid April, but I'd bet he finishes the season batting below .300.
Basketball
-Kevin Durant doesn't miss in the fourth quarter. Period.
-Which beard has more character? Brian Wilson's or James Harden's?
-Can't decide which point guard is the fastest/most explosive; Russell Westbrook, Rajon Rondo, Derrick Rose or Ty Lawson.
-Knew with absolute certainty LeBron James' potential dagger three late in Game 2 had zero chance of going in. I know he was letting the clock wind down, but too often he seems to settle for those shots. He should be like Paul Pierce or Kobe Bryant, who at least make a move toward the basket and pull-up at the elbow if they can't get to the rim. Otherwise, King James enjoyed another monster performance, and finally got some help from Dwyane Wade.
-Speaking of LBJ, can't believe he played all 48 minutes but didn't get called for a single foul in Game 7 of the Celtics series. I can't stand the officiating, especially all the offensive fouls. In my mind, you should only call an offensive foul if it's blatant. Stop rewarding floppers for diving on the court after minor contact.
-Originally I had Thunder winning in six, but now believe the series will stretch over the full seven games. These teams are just too evenly matched.
-As far as Big Threes go, give me Durant, Westbrook and Harden over James, Wade and Chris Bosh
-Brandon Bass opted out of his contract and became a free agent. I want him to come back, but if he wants to move on then let him go. Rather use that money to try to keep Kevin Garnett or Ray Allen.
Tuesday, June 12, 2012
Celtics Post-Mortem
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| We may have seen the Big Three in Celtics green for the last time |
It was like somebody flipped a switch and turned off the lights....
Boston's shots stopped falling as Miami's vaunted defense clamped down. A red-hot Chris Bosh, fully recovered from his abdominal strain, started sinking corner threes. King James, who's been something of a Celtic assassin these past two postseasons, did his Kobe Bryant impression by drilling a backbreaking three from what seemed like another area code as the shot clock expired. The crowd exploded into a wild frenzy. The Heat, furiously gathering momentum like a tropical storm in the Gulf just before it develops into a full-fledged hurricane, were clicking on all cyclinders. Boston fans could feel the game, and the season, slipping away. It felt like the Celtics were standing still, and that the Heat were sprinting past them to the finish line. We all hoped that this valiant team, one that had persevered through so much adversity and defied the odds, had one more last-ditch comeback in them. But it was evident that they had nothing left to give, not after 66 regular season games crammed into four months followed by 20 exhausting playoff games. They'd expended all their energy, used up all their bullets, were running on fumes with four flat tires. And so the infinitely younger, more talented and more athletic Miami Heat surged past them and secured a date with the Oklahoma City Thunder, ending Boston's season for the second year in a row in the process. Still, you have to be proud of the way they scratched and clawed to get to that point, on the doorstep of the finals. This team was as resilient as any, and nobody, not even the Heat, can take that away from them. They gave it their all, and in the end it just wasn't enough.
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| The Celtics lost, but they still have plenty to be happy about |
Four calendar years later, when the Heat pulled away and an emotional Doc Rivers finally removed his exhausted starters from the game, it punctuated the end of an era. They saved basketball in Boston, a city that had been much more concerned with the Red Sox and Patriots throughout the new milennium, but now the team faces an uncertain future. Garnett and Allen's contracts are up, and even if they return this team is clearly too old--Pierce will be 35, KG 36 and Jesus Shuttlesworth 37--to have a serious shot at another title, even with a healthy Jeff Green and Avery Bradley. I feel like they caught lightning in a bottle this year, and that they won't be able to replicate this success next year. Don't get me wrong; I'm not writing off KG and Allen just yet. I think they would like to return, and I'd love to see them both come back in more limited roles--the man who broke Reggie Miller's three point mark would be a potent weapon off the bench. Realistically, they will have a plethora of suitors this offseason, particularly younger teams looking to add experienced, but productive NBA veterans. This summer Ainge has a lot on his plate. He will have to rebuild, regroup, and reload as he looks to build around his star point guard Rajon Rondo,
Of course such talk is premature. Nobody knows the future, and both could be back a few months from now, ready to make another run at banner number 18. Even if they don't, and this is indeed the end, we can take away the following five signs of encouragement.
Doc is a great coach
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| When Doc speaks, his players listen |
Kevin Garnett's resurgence
The Big Ticket proved that, even at 36 and with 17 NBA seasons (50,000+ minutes including playoffs) under his belt, he still has something left in the tank. KG thrived when Rivers moved him to the five after Jermaine O'Neal went down with knee and wrist injuries, finishing the regular season strong and playing like a beast in the playoffs. He was vintage KG, averaging a cool 19.2 points and 10.3 boards while shooting just under 50 percent from the floor (all right in line with his career averages) and hauling in more rebounds than anybody else throughout the first three rounds, easily his most productive postseason since Boston's 2008 title run. Granted, he will never be the same player he was before the knee strain he suffered during his second season with the Celtics, but like Tim Duncan he is aging gracefully and can still be a monster from time to time. Many have speculated that he will retire, and given the amount of money he's made on top of his lengthy list of achievements (championship, MVP, 14 All-Star nods, Olympic Gold Medal, etc.) that seems entirely likely. He's looked painfully old at times during the last couple years, and he'll need plenty of rest during the regular season to keep his legs fresh for the playoffs.
Rajon Rondo's improvement
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| Rondo will be back, and could be better than ever |
Avery Bradley's emergence
Ainge, stuck with poor draft positioning because of the team's success since creating the Big Three, has not been able to draft/develop young talent capable of succeeding his trio of stars. Gabe Pruitt, J.R. Giddens, Luke Harangody, Bill Walker and Patrick O'Bryant didn't exactly set the world on fire, you know? That's why the front office was always looking to acquire reinforcements during the midseason and offseason, thus bringing in past their prime Rasheed Wallace, Shaquille O'Neal, Jermaine O'Neal, Stephon Marbury, etc. all of whom came and left through the revolving door. Bradley, whom Ainge drafted from the University of Texas at Austin with the 19th overall pick in a deep 2010 class (John Wall, Evan Turner, Greg Monroe, DeMarcus Cousins, Paul George), has been his lone success story, a formidable wing defender in the same mold as Tony Allen but packaged with a superior offensive game. The 21 year-old made great strides this season, especially in April when he stole the starting shooting guard spot from Ray Allen and averaged more than 15 points a game. Unfortunately, just as AB was gaining confidence he missed the entire Heat series with a dislocated shoulder that needed season ending surgery. I sincerely believe that the Celtics would have won had he been healthy (reminiscent of Perkins two years ago), primarily during the pivotal Game 2 when Dwyane Wade caught fire late in the game and helped stun the C's in overtime. Bradley would have slowed him down and prevented that hot streak.
Brandon Bass fitting in
Saturday, June 9, 2012
Thoughts on Game 7
After a 94-90 Game 5 Celtics win down in Miami that was just as thrilling as it was improbable, hopes were high that this aging Boston squad would close out the stunned Heat to advance to the team's third NBA Finals appearance in its last five seasons. Unfortunately, that didn't happen, as LeBron James put on his mean face and delivered a playoff performance for the ages to quiet a raucous TD Garden crowd. The C's did their part, making careless turnovers and missing scores of open looks in what became a 98-79 drubbing. This hotly contested series, now evened at three games apiece, returns to South Beach tonight for a do-or-die Game 7 with the potent Oklahoma City Thunder lying in wait to challenge the victors.
But no matter what happens tonight, it's been a memorable season for the Celtics. From their rocky start that led many to give up on the team and believe GM Danny Ainge would trade away the Big Three, to their second half surge and exciting playoff battles with the Hawks, Sixers and Heat, this team has taken a long, winding journey on the NBA rollercoaster. They've been the underdogs all year long; too old, too injured, too tired. But even as everyone doubted them, they never quit and they never went away. To get here this team had to overcome its fair share of adversity, fight through pain and fatigue. It had to survive a lockout shortened season and postseason with a thin bench depleted by injuries to Allen, Rondo, Jermaine O'Neal, Jeff Green, and Chris Wilcox. That's why I think it's safe to say that they've far exceeded everybody's expectations, and like the 1967 Red Sox they don't have to win the championship to validate their successful season. They've already done more than enough. At this point these guys are playing with house money, so beating the Heat (and perhaps causing Pat Riley to dismantle their core) would just be icing on the cake. All the pressure is on Miami; the Celts are just along for the ride.
And if Ainge does break them up this summer, then we can sit back and appreciate this last stand. But for now, they're still breathing. Sure, they're still the underdogs, but by now they're used to it. I don't know what to expect tonight, so I'm prepared for just about anything. The Heat could crumble. Boston might get blown out again. As Kevin Garnett himself once declared, "Anything is possible."
Here are some of my thoughts on tonight's game:
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-This game will mark the seventh Game 7 for Boston since Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen joined forces in 2007. They are 4-2. By comparison, the Miami Heat have played just six Game 7s in the entire history of their franchise, which was founded in 1988. Let's hope experience counts for something.
-Miami's Big Three has never played a Game 7 together, and have just one Game 7 win (courtesy of Wade) combined.
-No way LeBron James repeats that performance, the first 45-15-5 performance in a playoff game since Wilt Chamberlain posted those stats back in 1964. I say this with confidence because LBJ was drilling some tough, contested shots from the perimeter; nine times out of ten if you can keep him out of the paint and turn him into a jump shooter than you will greatly limit his effectiveness, as he's an average shooter at best who really thrives when he's barreling into the lane. King James has been so consistently incredible in this series (he's dropped at least 25 points every game, something nobody's done against the Celtics since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in the 1974 postseason) that it wouldn't surprise me if he finally has an "off" night where he gets an empty 20 points and doesn't seem to be involved, but it's much more likely that he continues to stuff the stat sheet and finishes with around 30 or 35. For the record, he's averaged 36 PPG in his two career Game 7s, the highest Game 7 scoring average ever. Even if he throws up a stinker in Game 7, he still deserves credit for single-handedly keeping Miami in this series.
-When is Dwyane Wade going to show up? Aside from his strong performance late in the fourth quarter and during overtime in Game 2, D-Wade's had a very quiet series. He vanishes in the first half, a pattern he followed again during Game 6 before getting his stats after the Heat had already built up a double digit lead in the third quarter. He's been deferring to James a lot and could be due for a big game if he starts playing more aggressively, but I hope the trend continues. Because if he and James both get it going, the Celtics are doomed. But if Miami loses, Wade, not James, deserves to bear the brunt of the media criticism.
-Wondering if Chris Bosh will start tonight. He came off the bench in Game 6 but the Heat said they weren't going to limit his minutes, which leads me to believe that he's fully recovered from his abdominal strain suffered during Game 1 of the Indiana series. He's been okay in limited action, but I seriously doubt that he'll have much of an impact on Game 7.
-Paul Pierce is going to have a big game. Not Game 7 against James and the Cavs from 2008, but he'll get to the line, sink a couple big threes and hit some big shots in the fourth. He's struggled with his shot all series, mainly because he's playing with one leg, keeps getting into foul trouble and has to cover James on defense. But the "Truth" is too gritty, too much of a warrior to not play well tonight. Even if his shots aren't falling, he'll still find a way to contribute. This could very well be the last big game of the Celtics Captain career, and he won't disappoint.
-Boston still has the coaching edge. 'Spo is much better than people give him credit for, but he's no Doc Rivers.
-Miami's role players have been streaky throughout the series, and I think the team's fate lays in their hands. If Mike Miller, Mario Chalmers, James Jones, Udonis Haslem, and Shane Battier can take advantage of the looks that James and Wade get them off drive-and-kicks, then Miami is going to win. Plain and simple.
-Hoping the three-point dam will burst for Boston; they've connected on just 29 percent of their shots from behind the arc. The onus is on Pierce, Allen, Mickael Pietrus, and Keyon Dooling to help stretch the floor, thus opening up the paint for Pierce/Rondo drives and KG/Brandon Bass, by knocking down some treys.
-The officiating has been pretty bad in this series, so I'm hoping the refs will do their best to call a fair game and not let Miami benefit from all the calls.
-I feel like Allen still has one or two big shots left in him, maybe a buzzer beater or perhaps a coming-off-the-screen-on-the-move-fading-out-of-bounds-how-in-the-world-did-he-hit-that?-corner three. His shot has looked much better as of late, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he has one of those vintage Ray-Ray performances with four or five triples. Realistically, I'd settle for two or three.
-Rajon Rondo will flirt with a triple-double (he has to)
-If the Celtics lose, I'm sure they will agonize over Avery Bradley's absence the way they did in 2010 when Kendrick Perkins' knee injury in Game 6 against the Lakers probably cost them their 18th championship banner.
-The Celtics will win, 88-86
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| Thanks for the memories |
And if Ainge does break them up this summer, then we can sit back and appreciate this last stand. But for now, they're still breathing. Sure, they're still the underdogs, but by now they're used to it. I don't know what to expect tonight, so I'm prepared for just about anything. The Heat could crumble. Boston might get blown out again. As Kevin Garnett himself once declared, "Anything is possible."
Here are some of my thoughts on tonight's game:
.
-This game will mark the seventh Game 7 for Boston since Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen joined forces in 2007. They are 4-2. By comparison, the Miami Heat have played just six Game 7s in the entire history of their franchise, which was founded in 1988. Let's hope experience counts for something.
-Miami's Big Three has never played a Game 7 together, and have just one Game 7 win (courtesy of Wade) combined.
-No way LeBron James repeats that performance, the first 45-15-5 performance in a playoff game since Wilt Chamberlain posted those stats back in 1964. I say this with confidence because LBJ was drilling some tough, contested shots from the perimeter; nine times out of ten if you can keep him out of the paint and turn him into a jump shooter than you will greatly limit his effectiveness, as he's an average shooter at best who really thrives when he's barreling into the lane. King James has been so consistently incredible in this series (he's dropped at least 25 points every game, something nobody's done against the Celtics since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in the 1974 postseason) that it wouldn't surprise me if he finally has an "off" night where he gets an empty 20 points and doesn't seem to be involved, but it's much more likely that he continues to stuff the stat sheet and finishes with around 30 or 35. For the record, he's averaged 36 PPG in his two career Game 7s, the highest Game 7 scoring average ever. Even if he throws up a stinker in Game 7, he still deserves credit for single-handedly keeping Miami in this series.
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| I can live with that |
-Wondering if Chris Bosh will start tonight. He came off the bench in Game 6 but the Heat said they weren't going to limit his minutes, which leads me to believe that he's fully recovered from his abdominal strain suffered during Game 1 of the Indiana series. He's been okay in limited action, but I seriously doubt that he'll have much of an impact on Game 7.
-Paul Pierce is going to have a big game. Not Game 7 against James and the Cavs from 2008, but he'll get to the line, sink a couple big threes and hit some big shots in the fourth. He's struggled with his shot all series, mainly because he's playing with one leg, keeps getting into foul trouble and has to cover James on defense. But the "Truth" is too gritty, too much of a warrior to not play well tonight. Even if his shots aren't falling, he'll still find a way to contribute. This could very well be the last big game of the Celtics Captain career, and he won't disappoint.
 |
| Pierce has to use every weapon in his arsenal tonight |
-Miami's role players have been streaky throughout the series, and I think the team's fate lays in their hands. If Mike Miller, Mario Chalmers, James Jones, Udonis Haslem, and Shane Battier can take advantage of the looks that James and Wade get them off drive-and-kicks, then Miami is going to win. Plain and simple.
-Hoping the three-point dam will burst for Boston; they've connected on just 29 percent of their shots from behind the arc. The onus is on Pierce, Allen, Mickael Pietrus, and Keyon Dooling to help stretch the floor, thus opening up the paint for Pierce/Rondo drives and KG/Brandon Bass, by knocking down some treys.
-The officiating has been pretty bad in this series, so I'm hoping the refs will do their best to call a fair game and not let Miami benefit from all the calls.
-I feel like Allen still has one or two big shots left in him, maybe a buzzer beater or perhaps a coming-off-the-screen-on-the-move-fading-out-of-bounds-how-in-the-world-did-he-hit-that?-corner three. His shot has looked much better as of late, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he has one of those vintage Ray-Ray performances with four or five triples. Realistically, I'd settle for two or three.
-Rajon Rondo will flirt with a triple-double (he has to)
-If the Celtics lose, I'm sure they will agonize over Avery Bradley's absence the way they did in 2010 when Kendrick Perkins' knee injury in Game 6 against the Lakers probably cost them their 18th championship banner.
-The Celtics will win, 88-86
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