New York Needs a Miracle

Kansas City came back to win Game 4 (CBS Sports)

After yet another comeback win, the Kansas City Royals are one victory away from winning the World Series. The New York Mets, on the other hand, need to win three more times--in a row, including twice on the road--to capture the flag. Simple math would seem to favor the Royals.

But while the Mets are down, you can't say they're out. Not when they have Matt Harvey pitching tonight, Jacob deGrom going on Tuesday, and Noah Syndergaard starting Game 7 if needed. Those three rank among the best, hardest-throwing pitchers in baseball. When you have them lined up like that, you have a fighting chance against anybody.

It's just weird that the Mets find themselves in this position. After never trailing in the NLCS, New York has been playing catch-up this whole series, or at least since they lost Game 1. I felt at the time that their inability to hold onto that ninth inning lead would come back to haunt them, and sure enough, it has completely altered the Fall Classic's dynamic. If Alex Gordon flies out to the track there, or even hits it off the wall, the Series would be tied at two rather than 3-1 Royals. But in a best-of-seven, you can't afford to make those mistakes. Teams wins 95 percent of games they lead going into the ninth inning. During the most important games of the year, you better not have one of those 5 percent games, but the Mets have basically had two in five days.

Tonight's game will be a rematch between Game 1 starters Edinson Volquez and Matt Harvey, who compiled nearly identical stat lines in the Series opener. Volquez has been tough since suddenly finding an extra foot on his fastball, but Harvey's still the superior pitcher. He's had one very good start sandwiched between two decent turns this postseason, but he'll have to be at his absolute best tonight. When your team is one loss away from being eliminated, there's no margin for error.

Mets Make Comeback, Win Game 3

The Mets emerged victorious in Game 3 (Huffington Post)

There's a comedian--Brian Regan--who does a funny bit about the dumb questions sports reporters ask. One of his examples; "is this a must-win game for you?", to which players always say things like "of course" or "definitely." As Regan points out, though, unless it's an elimination game, it never is a must-win. Obviously, as a competitor, you want to win every game, but very rarely do you actually have to win.

But after losing games 1 and 2 of the World Series in Kansas City, the New York Mets absolutely had to win Game 3. Sure, they could lose the third game and still win it all, but despite what the 2004 Red Sox and a handful of hockey teams have shown us, going down 3-0 in a best of seven series is a death sentence. It's just too hard to win four in a row against an elite team, especially when half those games are on the road.

Having already thrown their two aces (Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom), the Mets pinned their hopes on Noah Syndergaard, their hard-throwing, lion-haired rookie. A kid who began the season in the minors and turned 23 two months ago--not exactly the grizzled, battle-hardened Jon Lester-type you'd want starting a game like that.

Nobody knew what to expect from Syndergaard last night, but it's safe to say nobody thought he'd open the biggest game of his life by buzzing Kansas City's leadoff batter on the very first pitch. Besides nearly inciting a riot in the Royals' dugout with that high and tight fastball aimed at Alcides Escobar's noggin, he also made a very loud, very clear statement; I'm the one in control here. We might be down in this series, but I'm not afraid of you. You're the ones who should be afraid of me.

His purpose pitch did, however, have the unintended side effect of lighting a fire under the Royals, who clearly don't take kindly to 98 mile-per-hour heaters headed for their helmets. They didn't wait around to exact revenge, knocking Syndergaard around for six hits and three runs through the first two innings. With Syndergaard struggling, it looked like it was going to be a long night for New York's bullpen, not to mention another victory for Kansas City.

Then, all of the sudden, Syndergaard became unhittable, He retired 12 Royals in a row, keeping Kansas City at bay while his teammates tied the game in the third, then took the lead in the fourth.

That is, until he ran into trouble again in the sixth. After fanning Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer, he allowed Mike Moustakas to reach on an infield single. It was the kind of cheap hit that drives pitchers crazy, especially when  they come with two outs. That forced Syndergaard back to pitching out of the stretch for the first time in awhile, which seemed to disrupt his rhythm. He walked Salvador Perez--who probably would have taken a hack at that pitch that almost decapitated Escobar--on five pitches before losing Gordon on a full count.

With Syndergaard closing in on 100 pitches and New York's 5-3 lead very much in danger, the crowd at Citi Field began howling for a pitching change. One more hit would even the score and force Syndergaard out, turning the game into a battle of bullpens. Since that would obviously favor Kansas City, New York could not afford to lose its lead.

So it was curious, then, that Mets manager Terry Collins stayed put, sticking with Syndergaard as Alex Rios came up to bat. It was the most important at-bat of the game, and Collins had to choose between his tiring starter and a fresh reliever, albeit one from his shaky middle relief corps. He went with the former, hoping for one more out from the rookie. On his 100th pitch of the night, Syndergaard got it, suffocating Kansas City's rally and preserving New York's lead at two.

The lead would grow to six by the end of the inning, as the Mets erupted for four runs in their half of the frame. New York's bullpen took it from there, doing their best impression of the Royals' relief corps by shutting down Kansas City over the final three innings. So dominant were the Mets relievers that the Royals didn't manage so much as a single baserunner. And with that, it was a series again.

The Mets will send another rookie, Steven Matz, to the mound tonight as they look to even the Series at two-all. A native New Yorker, Matz understands the pressure riding on this game. It's the most important one of the series, as there's a huge difference between being tied at two games apiece versus being one loss shy of elimination. It's his job to ensure the former.

On the other side, the Royals will try to get back on track behind Chris Young. who surprised everyone by emerging as their best pitcher this year. A full 12 years older than Matz, he has a solid decade of major league experience on his kid opponent. And thanks to his relief appearance in Game 1, he has more World Series experience under his belt, too. Young was the winning pitcher in that crazy marathon, firing three hitless innings out of the 'pen as he put the sleepy Mets to bed. We'll see if he can do the same against their refreshed lineup tonight.

Game 2: Royals Roll

Cueto came up big last night for Kansas City (ABC News)

Six weeks ago, mired in perhaps the worst cold spell of his career, Johnny Cueto looked totally lost. After being one of the best pitchers in baseball during the first half, he'd come over to Kansas City in late July and promptly lost his mojo. He couldn't strike anybody out, and he was getting torched every time he took the mound. Over a four-week stretch his ERA approached 10. His transition to the American League was not going well, to say the least.

As his struggles persisted into mid-September, they raised alarm over whether Kansas City could rely on him come playoff time. The whole reason they'd got him was to bolster their middling rotation, which lacked a clear-cut number one without James Shields, and they believed that in order to win the World Series they needed an ace. When they acquired him, Cueto certainly qualified as such. Just one month later, however, he seemed completely broken.

That is, until pitching coach Dave Eiland fixed him. Eiland noticed Cueto's left shoulder flying open during his delivery, causing his pitches to flatten out. His cutter in particular had become straight as an arrow. He called Cueto in to have a look at the tape, and together they saw why the star pitcher was getting creamed.

Cueto was fine the rest of way, allowing three earned runs or fewer in each of his last starts. But Royals fans still had reason to be concerned. The final few weeks of the regular season amounted to garbage time for Kansas City, who'd locked up the AL Central before Cueto even arrived. How would he hold up during the most pressure-packed games of the season, especially after suffering an apparent "crisis of confidence" so late in the season?

Those doubts still lingered before last night's game, as Cueto had been shelled in his most recent outing against Toronto. The Blue Jays battered him for eight runs in two innings, teeing off on him like it was batting practice. It was by far his worst start of the season, worse than any of his late-summer beatings. His ERA since joining the Royals, postseason included, was now 5.27. With an unbeaten (in the postseason) Jacob deGrom lined up to face Cueto, Game 2 seemed likely to go New York's way.

Then the game started, and all of the sudden Cueto could do no wrong.

Cueto and the Royals celebrate their 7-1 victory over the Mets (Click2Houston)

Last night was a perfect example of why Dayton Moore traded for Cueto back in July, even with the playoffs all but assured by that point. When he's on, he's one of the best pitchers in the game.

Cueto delivered his best start since early August, spinning a complete game two-hitter as Kansas City trounced New York, 7-1. By GameScore, it was his best start since he shut out Detroit on August 10th. It was also the best postseason start of his career.

Kansas City's dreadlocked ace was dominant from the start, zipping through the first three innings while facing the minimum nine batters. He hit a snag his second time through the order, walking two and letting in the game's first run on a flare single by Lucas Duda with two outs in the fourth. Beyond that, though, Cueto was unstoppable. He retired the next 15 in a row, allowing just one baserunner (a Daniel Murphy walk) the rest of the way.

With Cueto starting opposite deGrom, Game 2 was billed as the best pitching matchup of the series. For the first half of the game, it certainly was. Both stumbled in the fourth, however, with Cueto surrendering the first run of the game and deGrom getting out of a bases loaded jam. But whereas Cueto settled down after his minor hiccup, deGrom disintegrated the very next inning.

The trouble started when Alex Gordon, the hero of Game 1, led off with a full-count walk.

Alex Rios, the Royals' most regrettable offseaon pickup, followed with a single to move Gordon up to second. That brought Alcides Escobar, who got the scoring started the previous night with his mad dash around the bases, to the plate. Once again, he delivered Kansas City's first run of the game, slapping a single up the middle that plated Gordon and tied the game.

After Ben Zobrist grounded out and Lorenzo Cain lined out, it looked like deGrom would escape the inning without further damage. Until Eric Hosmer, another Game 1 hero, struck again, poking a single up the middle that scored both Rios and Escobar. According to win probability added, it was the biggest play of the game, increasing Kansas City's chances of winning the game from 58 percent to 80 percent. Successive singles by Kendrys Morales and Mike Moustakas added another run to KC's ledger, improving their odds of victory to 87 percent by the end of the frame.

After that it was all Kansas City. Cueto cruised the rest of the way while New York's bullpen, summoned back into action after a taxing effort in Game 1, allowed three additional runs in the eighth to put the game out of reach. That also gave Cueto plenty of leeway with which to finish his start and saving Ned Yost the trouble of warming anyone up in case Cueto faltered. With a maximum of one more start this season (plus a possible Madison Bumgarner-esque relief effort if the series goes seven), the free agent-to-be was permitted to come back out for the ninth even though he'd already thrown 106 pitches. He finished the game having thrown 122.

Cueto did what deGrom could not--he saved the bullpen after an exhausting Game 1.

More importantly, he gave his team a commanding 2-0 series lead, bringing Kansas City to within two wins of its first World Series championship in 30 years.

Now, the Mets' championship hopes ride on a rookie starting pitcher who turned 23 two months ago. Make no mistake, Noah Syndergaard will be up to the challenge based on how he's performed up to this point, but you just never know how he'll handle this kind of pressure-cooker. He has to pitch knowing that if he loses, his team is in an 0-3 hole and their season is effectively over. That's a ton of pressure on a kid making his first World Series start.

The pitcher he's going up against, Yordano Ventura, isn't much older at 24. Ventura does have World Series experience, however, so he's been there before. His team is in the driver's seat, so he can pitch relatively worry-free.

While Game 2 was supposed to be a pitcher's duel, Game 3 has similar potential. Syndergaard and Ventura are two of the hardest throwers in the game today, which makes their matchup especially intriguing. Syndergaard's been the superior pitcher this year (in both the regular season and postseason), but Ventura does have that World Series experience to draw on. New York would seem to have the advantage, being at home with the better pitcher on the mound, but either hurtler is certainly capable of the kind of virtuoso performance Cueto enjoyed last night.

The Mets just better hope that their guy's better, because if not then they're finished.

Royals Return to Series

They're baaaaack (image courtesy of the Guardian)

The Kansas City Royals came within one game of winning it all last year. Now they're back to finish the job.

I still can't believe Kansas City is in the World Series--again. Last year seemed like such a fluke, from their crazy comeback against Oakland in the wild card game to stunning sweeps in the ALDS and ALCS. Were it not for Madison Bumgarner, they would've beaten the Giants, too. They'd overachieved by leaps and bounds, especially considering they'd only outscored opponents by 27 runs during the regular season.

That's why this year, I didn't see the Royals going .500 and certainly not getting back to the World Series. They hadn't been very good to start with and seemed due for serious regression, especially after losing James Shields and Billy Butler to free agency and spending what little money they had on guys who weren't very good (Alex Rios? Edinson Volquez? Kendrys Morales?). Compared to other teams, they were dangerously low on star power. Furthermore, Kansas City's strengths--speed, bullpen, and defense--are highly volatile, making its success more difficult to sustain.

Once again, however, everything fell into place for the Royals. Their new pickups (minus Rios) played well, and their bullpen was even stingier than it was last year. Lorenzo Cain emerged as an MVP candidate, while Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas finally started living up to their potential. They were aided by trade deadline reinforcements in Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist. Their defense remained airtight.

It also helped that the rest of their division cleared a path for them. The Tigers finally broke down, the Indians failed to take the next step, and the Twins and White Sox both fizzled out. That enabled the Royals to not only win AL Central handily, by a dozen games, but also helped them secure the best record in the American League and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. That's been huge for Kansas City, who have won five straight at home since dropping Game 1 of the ALDS to Houston.

Now, for the second time in as many years, Kansas City will host the World Series. Once again, the Royals will have to go through some tough pitching, though this time there will be no Bumgarner standing in their way. Instead, they'll need to overcome Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard, three fireballers who will put their contact skills to the test. They'll also have to find a way to neutralize Daniel Murphy, something nobody's been able to do thus far.

I think the Mets have more talent and are more dangerous, especially because their starting pitching is so superior. Their offense has also been ridiculously hot over the past three months, which if it continues will force Kansas City's starters early from the game and take their relievers out of play. That being said, I do think the Royals have a more balanced team and deeper lineup, so it won't be a cakewalk for New York. Mets in six.

Mets Miracle Run Continues

The Mets have been unbeatable over the past three months (CBS New York)

Three months ago the New York Mets were one game over .500. Now they're in the World Series.

Back in April, not even the most optimistic Mets fans would have predicted that, While New York looked promising with all its young starting pitching, it lacked the bats to complement their bounty of arms. What's more, their rotation was woefully short on experience (excepting Bartolo Colon, of course, who I believe began his career during the Deadball Era). None of their four best starters had completed more than one full season in the Show. Rookie phenom Noah Syndergaard, who began the season in the minors, hadn't started a major league at all, and Matt Harvey was coming off Tommy John surgery. So while the Mets' rotation had the potential to be great, it was also a real wild card.

Their offense, on the other hand, wasn't scaring anybody. New York's lineup looked pretty thin, even by National League standards, and their best hitters (David Wright, Curtis Granderson) were in decline. If anyone needed to load up on bats last winter, it was the Mets, but the best they could get was Michael Cuddyer. When that's you're biggest move of the offseason--signing an oft-injured corner outfielder about to turn 36--and you haven't had a winning season since the second Bush administration, then you're probably not bound for World Series glory.

Especially since the NL East was already a foregone conclusion, what with the Nationals assembling the best team in baseball (on paper). And with three great teams residing in the NL Central, not to mention the Dodgers and reigning World Series champs in the NL West, there just didn't seem to be any room for New York at the postseason table this year. The Mets were still a year or two away.

Or so they seemed. Washington, plagued by injuries and a team-wide malaise, never got going. That allowed the Mets to stay close all summer, even after losing Zack Wheeler for the entire season and Wright for most of it. They weren't playing exceptionally well, barely staying above .500, but the door was wide open if they could just get on a roll.

But for that to happen, New York needed help. Their pitching was great, better than advertised even, but their punchless lineup wasn't scoring enough runs. So Sandy Alderson injected some life into his floundering offense, landing the impact bat New York desperately needed by dealing a pair of minor leaguers to the rebuilding Tigers for Yoenis Cespedes. While at the time viewed as a consolation prize for their failed try at Carlos Gomez, Cespedes was exactly what the Mets needed: a righthanded slugger.

In baseball we tend to overstate the importance of deadline deals. Two-thirds of the season is already in the books by the time these moves are made, so any additions or subtractions aren't going to move the needle much. Had Bryce Harper or Mike Trout been dealt on July 31st this year, they only would have added about three wins to their new teams, which would have made a difference for maybe a handful of clubs. Often times, when teams get hot after adding talent at the deadline, what we're really seeing is a random hot streak (part of the game's natural variance) or an underperforming team playing up to its true talent level (as we saw with this year's Blue Jays). One man can only do so much in baseball, and that's especially true when his impact is limited to just two months.

But as a fan, it's so easy to be seduced by a simple narrative. Toronto wasn't doing so hot, but then they got David Price, and he pitched really well, and they won the division. New York was treading water, until they added Cespedes, and suddenly their anemic offense went bananas. The Blue Jays and Mets were mediocre before they got those guys but were great after so, ipso facto, Price and Cespedes made them become great teams. Obviously that's not true, because we've seen in past years how not even a full season of Mike Trout can turn a flawed team around, but it fulfills our most basic human logic requirements. It makes for a good story--bad at the beginning, acquired elite player in the middle, great by the end.

That's why so many people have been touting Cespedes as an NL MVP candidate, never mind the fact that he spent two-thirds of the season on an American League team. Yes, New York's offense did go crazy after Cespedes arrived, setting a club record for home runs in August and nearly matching their scoring output from the season's first four months in its final two. In truth, though, the Mets' offense dramatically improved for a bunch of reasons; Wright came back, Travis d'Arnaud had a big second half, and other guys started hitting. Cespedes was one of those reasons, but not the reason.

Cespedes sparked New York to the playoffs, or so the story goes (Fox Sports)

But all of that is besides the point. The bottom line is, with Cespedes on board, the Mets took off. They immediately won seven in a row, moving into a tie of first on August 2nd and taking it over for good the following day. Towards the end of August, they won seven in a row again, lengthening their division lead to 6.5 games. The Nats had finally begun playing better but couldn't catch the streaking Mets. New York won eight in a row in early September, burying Washington for good with three weeks left in the season. They stormed to the finish line, winning the division by seven games over the disappointing Nationals.

Then it was on to the NLDS, where they squared off with the star-studded Dodgers. Faced with the seemingly impossible task of beating a team that could throw the two best pitchers in baseball this year--Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke--four times in a five game series, the Mets squeaked by, advancing after a come-from-behind 3-2 win in Game 5.

In the NLCS they encountered one of the few teams hotter than them since the trade deadline in the Chicago Cubs. With their bruising, fastball-feasting lineup and a pair of aces, the Cubs appeared to have the upper hand. If any team was equipped to beat New York's flamethrowing rotation, it was Chicago.

The Cubs went down in four.

Now New York is headed to the World Series, something that seemed impossible just a few short months ago (or even a week ago, when they were up against Greinke on the road in Game 5). Despite winning the fewest regular season games of the NL's five playoff teams, the Mets are the last ones standing. They've already accomplished much more than anyone thought possible of them, no matter what happens against the Royals next week, Winning it all would be the cherry on top, but even if they lose the sundae will still taste amazin'.

Cubs Come Apart

Chicago's season came to an end last night (ABC Chicago)

To answer my own question, yes.

Great pitching can stop great hitting. Dead in its tracks.

If anyone seemed immune to New York's talented trio of fireballers (messrs. Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard), it appeared to be the Cubs. Chicago's stacked lineup feasted on fastballs, and nobody throws harder than the Mets--the only team with more than one starter whose average fastball velocity exceeded 95 miles per hour during the regular season (they had three, actually. Care to take a guess?). They had an ace coming off the greatest second half ever, another with a sterling postseason record, and the best manager in baseball. What could go wrong?

Chicago getting swept out of the NLCS seemed unfathomable a week ago. The Cubs were on such a roll, it didn't seem like anyone could stop them. They had the best record in baseball from July 29th onward, then proceeded to eliminate the only two teams with better regular season records than them. Everyone was hitting, Jake Arrieta was untouchable, and the defense and bullpen were rock solid. Just four wins shy of the club's first World Series appearance in 70 years, Chicago appeared to be coming together at the perfect time.

Then, against the Mets, they completely unraveled. The hottest team in baseball never even had a lead. New York's vaunted pitching shut down Chicago's vaunted offense, limiting the Cubs to eight runs and 21 hits over the four games.

After taking a commanding 3-0 series lead, the Mets pressed down on the gas pedal in Game 4. They put the game away early, building up a 6-0 lead after two and sending Jason Hammel to an early shower. They cruised from there, extending their lead to 8-1 after adding a pair of insurance runs in the eighth before finally winning 8-3.

And so the 42,000+ crammed into Wrigley's cozy confines hoping to witness the beginning of a miracle comeback instead saw their team's season come crashing down, realizing the wild ride they'd been on for the better part of three months was over. There was no hope in Wrigleyville last night, no illusions about the Cubs coming alive at the 11th hour. Their bats had shown not an ounce of life during the previous three games, and last night was no different as Steven Matz and co. mowed them down once more.

Better to get your brains beaten in than lose by a whisker, as the Royals did last year's World Series, There's nothing heartbreaking about getting blown out--only demoralizing.

In the end, New York's incredible starting pitching and Daniel Murphy (seriously, where did that come from?) proved too much to overcome. I'm just shocked the Cubs, who took down baseball's lone 100-win team in the NLDS, lost four straight. I thought for sure they'd win at least one of the two started by Jon Lester or Jake Arrieta, but when they lost both those games they were effectively done. Once they lost Game 3, too, they were toast. Theo Epstein may be their president, but they are not the 2004 Red Sox.

ALCS a Heavyweight Showdown

The reigning AL champs are itching to get back to the Series (Bleeding Royal Blue)

Because of baseball's division format, added wild card games, and the sheer randomness that ensues in a best-of-five series, it's become exceedingly rare that the two best teams (record-wise) meet up in the league championship series. This is only the fourth such time in the American League since the wild card era began in 1995.

But in a year where all but three American League teams finished within seven games of .500 (how's that for parity?), the Toronto Blue Jays and Kansas City Royals were head and shoulders above everyone else. The Royals had the league's best record (95-67), and the Blue Jays its top run-differential (+221). They were the only AL teams to top 90 wins this year.

How they got here is quite interesting. The defending AL champs appeared to take a step back over the winter, losing ace James Shields to free agency and making a host of questionable free agent signings. Experts thought they'd be lucky to crack .500, let alone return to the postseason. But Kansas City got off to a hot start and never looked back, spending just 19 days out of first and never a day below second. They took over first place for good on June 8th, running away with a middling AL Central. Two months later they'd built up a double-digit lead and maintained it the rest of the way, winning their division by a whopping 12 games.

But whereas Kansas City cruised through the regular season, Toronto spent most of the year playing catch-up. After an active offseason in which they traded for Josh Donaldson and signed Russell Martin, the Jays were a popular pick to make the playoffs, if not win the division.

So it was surprising when Toronto started slow, playing losing baseball for the first two months. They'd slipped to last in the AL East by Memorial Day and were still seven games below .500 one week later. They begin digging themselves out with a sizzling June, only to flounder again in July. Toronto limped into the break with a losing record, having dropped 10 of 14 leading up to the Midsummer Classic. Their struggles continued throughout the rest of July, only coming to an end when the team acquired David Price and Troy Tulowitzki just before the trade deadline.

When Troy Tulowitzki came over on July 28th, the Jays were still one game below .500. Supplemented by David Price two days later, they won 14 of their next 15 and began steamrolling the American League. The Blue Jays became the hottest team in baseball, winning 43 of their final 61 games, good for a ridiculous .705 winning percentage--this from a team that hadn't managed to win even half its games for four solid months.

Toronto wasn't the only team to land a pair of big names at the deadline, though. Kansas City also made waves, fetching an ace in Johnny Cueto and bolstering its lineup with Ben Zobrist.

Both teams instantly took on the look of World Series contenders, so it's only fitting that they're playing each other for the rights to be in the Fall Classic.

The Royals, of course, were just there last year, and would have won were it not for a herculean effort by Madison Bumgarner. After coming oh so close, Kansas City is determined not just to get back to the Series, but to win it.

So are the Blue Jays, who just snapped the longest active postseason drought in American professional sports. With Price a free agent at season's end and many of their best players about to join him soon, the time to win is now. This could be their last, best chance for awhile.

Toronto's power makes them a formidable opponent (Betting Talk)

A few days ago, it didn't look like either one would survive the ALDS. Both were on the cusp of losing to inferior teams, just one game away from elimination. Toronto went down 0-2, dropping the first two games to Texas at home. When the Jays lost Game 2, blowing an eighth-inning lead and losing in extra innings, it felt like Toronto's fans had just seen the last game at the Rogers Centre this year. The Blue Jays' season was about to end in disappointment.

But Texas, who recently failed to win a World Series despite being one strike away twice, was once again unable to finish the job. Toronto battled back, winning both games in Arlington to force Game 5 and return the series north of the border. Having burned through Price in Game 4 and facing Cole Hamels, however, the Jays appeared to be at a major disadvantage, especially after the Rangers grabbed an early lead and still led after the seventh-inning stretch. Once again, it looked like Toronto's season would end in tragedy.

Until the Rangers imploded, committing three straight errors and choking away the game in one of the craziest innings I've ever seen.

The Royals were in similarly dire straits, losing two of three to begin the series and staring down a four-run deficit in Game 4. With just six outs left in their season, the odds of them living to play another day were three percent.

But for the second year in a row, the Royals rallied from down four runs in a must-win elimination game, snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. They stunned Houston with a five-run frame, then tacked on two more in the ninth for good measure. Back in Kansas City, they won Game 5 two days later, overcoming another early deficit to send the Astros packing.

So now that they're here, who's the better team? The Royals were the American League's best team wire-to-wire, but the Blue Jays were the best team in baseball after the All-Star Break. We know momentum doesn't matter heading into a playoff series, but both teams have to be feeling pretty good about themselves after cheating death in the ALDS.

The Blue Jays were actually a much better regular season team than the Royals despite winning fewer games. They played in a tougher division and outscored Kansas City by 167 runs--more than one per game. Their run prevention was nearly as good, too, allowing only 29 more runs than Kansas City. According to Bill James's pythagorean model, which estimates how many games a team should have won based on its run differential, Toronto should have won 102 games this year--or nine more than they actually won. The Royals--winners of 95--would have been expected to win 90.

The gulf in talent becomes obvious after a quick comparison between the two rosters. Toronto boasts an All-Star lineup with Donaldson, Martin, Tulo, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion. They also have the AL's best pitcher at the moment in Price, who might, as Bumgarner showed last year, win the series all by himself.

Which is why even though Kansas City sports the superior regular season record (and thus home field advantage), I sense that Toronto is the better team. This series won't prove that, of course, and the Royals are obviously good enough to win. I just think the Jays have more talent. I was originally going to say Toronto in six, but after Kansas City's Game 1 win I'm revising it to Toronto in seven.

Belated MLB Postseason Predictions

AL East--Red Sox
Boston's going to take a weak AL East behind the best offense in baseball (once they start hitting with runners in scoring position, that is).

AL Central--Tigers
The Tigers are still top dogs until someone (likely the Indians) unseats them.

AL West--Mariners
Seattle added some bats this winter, Nelson Cruz chief among them, to complement what projects to be an outstanding rotation.

AL WC1--Indians
With so much in their prime talent, something has to go terribly wrong for Cleveland to miss out on the postseason.

AL WC2--Blue Jays
This is finally the year Toronto snaps its playoff drought, which stretches back to 1993.

WC: Indians win Wild Card Game when Corey Kluber shuts down the Blue Jays 3-0
ALDS: Tigers over Indians in 5
ALDS: Red Sox over Mariners in 5
ALCS: Red Sox over Tigers in 6

NL East--Nationals
Washington's going to trample the NL East as they gun for 100 wins.

NL Central--Cardinals
The most balanced team in baseball.

NL West--Dodgers
Like the Yankees of last decade, they have too much money and star power to not win their division.

NL WC1--Cubs
The addition of veteran talent (Jon Lester, Miguel Montero, Dexter Fowler) to an up-and-coming team will get them back to the playoffs.

NL WC2--Padres
The offseason additions of Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, James Shields, and Derek Norris are going to take them from sub-.500 to October.

WC: Cubs over Padres 7-3
NLDS: Nationals over Cubs in 4
NLDS: Dodgers over Cardinals in 5
NLCS: Nationals over Dodgers in 7

WS: Nationals over Red Sox in 5

Celtics Must Finish Strong

Against all odds, the Celtics are one the brink of a playoff berth (MassLive)

I don't want to jinx it, but the Boston Celtics are almost there. The regular season ends one week from tomorrow, and when it does Boston might be playoff-bound.

In order to hold onto the 8th seed, however, the Celtics have to close out the year strong. They currently hold a one game lead over the Indiana Pacers, who just got Paul George back from the nasty leg injury he suffered last August. There is no margin for error.

Boston's schedule isn't exactly a cakewalk, either. They play the Pistons in Detroit tomorrow, then the Cavs in another road game Friday. They return home to face Cleveland again on Sunday, play their final home game versus the Raptors Tuesday, then fly out to Milwaukee to wrap up their season against the Bucks.

That's five games in eight days against some pretty good teams, not to mention thousands of miles of travel. The Pistons are one loss away from being eliminated, but they're not dead yet so you can bet they'll put up a fight tomorrow. The Cavs are settled in as the number two seed, so they don't have much to play for, but they're still a much better basketball team than the Celtics what with LeBron James, Kevin Love, and co. Cleveland's also red-hot, having won eight of their last ten games. The best Boston could hope to do would be to top Detroit, then earn a split with Cleveland.

The Raptors are still vying with the Bulls for the third seed/trying to avoid letting the Wizards knock them out of the fourth seed, but at least the Celtics will have home court advantage for that one. Then it's on to Milwaukee, which could be a must-win for Boston depending on how the next week plays out. Let's hope it isn't, because winning the second game of a back-to-back on the road after flying 1,000 miles is going to be damn-near impossible. The Bucks will have probably locked up their own playoff berth by then, but if not then that game is going to be a knockdown, dragged out fight to the death.

If Boston can go 2-3 over the next week, then that should be good enough to put them in the playoffs. because even with George back, the Pacers probably aren't going to win four out of five. The easiest way for the Celtics to do that is to beat Detroit tomorrow night and steal Sunday's game from the Cavs, as Cleveland could be resting regulars on the road. If not, they might have to wait until the season finale to clinch, which hopefully doesn't happen. Boston's been on such a tear recently--19-12 since February 2nd--that I don't think it will.

The Celtics are so close to making the playoffs that I can taste it. Now they just need to finish the job.

Pats Beat Baltimore

Amendola was the unlikely hero with two TD catches (NY Post)

The New England Patriots won a nailbiter, narrowly edging out the Ravens 35-31 in today's divisional playoff game.

Their fifth playoff bout produced an instant classic, a grueling fight to the finish on a bitterly cold day in Foxborough. Twice the Patriots went down by 14 points, and twice they stormed right back. Baltimore burst from the gate, scoring touchdowns on their first two drives and jumping out to a 14-0 cushion. New England rallied to tie in the second quarter and was driving towards the end of the half, only to have their potential go-ahead possession busted by a Tom Brady pick. Joe Flacco made the Pats pay, slinging his third TD pass of the game to Owen Daniels shortly before the first half closed.

New England got the ball to start the second half, but once again Baltimore scored first, this time on a Flacco pass to Justin Forsett. That gave the Ravens their second 14-point advantage of the evening, but again they failed to hold it. Brady and the Pats came storming down the field, using a succession of quick passes that culminated with a end zone strike to Rob Gronkowski. 

The highlight of the game came New England's next possession. It was a flawlessly executed flea-flicker where Brady passed to Julian Edelman on his left. Edelman, a quarterback for three years at Kent State, turned and fired a perfect pass down the sideline to Danny Amendola, who ran into the endzone for a most unlikely touchdown (and his second of the game).

The score remained locked at 28-28 into the fourth quarter, but not for long as the Ravens took their third lead of the game on a Justin Tucker field goal. The Patriots immediately answered with Brady's third passing TD of the game (and fourth overall). The pass to Brandon LaFell was Brady's 46th career postseason touchdown, passing Joe Montana for most ever.

More importantly, New England had its first lead of the game. The Patriots locked it down by intercepting Flacco in their own end zone with little more than two minutes remaining. It was the second time they picked off Flacco in the second half, whose streak of 198 consecutive passes without a pick in the postseason came to an end at the worst possible time. 

Flacco had been impeccable up to that point, adding to his sterling postseason resume by tallying four touchdown passes and outplaying Brady for much of the game. But when his team needed him the most, with him engineering a season-saving drive on the road, he choked. His deep throw went off target, fell into the hands of Duron Harmon, and that mistake effectively doomed their chances.

The $120 million quarterback, whom the NBC announcers annointed Mr. January at some point during the game (looks like they spoke too soon!), got the ball back with four seconds left in regulation. He received the snap, eluded New England's pass rush, and hurled a heart-stopping hail mary into New England's endzone. Thankfully, the Patriots' defenders far outnumbered the Ravens' receivers, and Devin McCourty was able to bat Flacco's prayer out of the end zone to seal the victory.

It doesn't get much closer than that. Thankfully, the Patriots live to fight another day and will host the AFC title game next weekend, likely against Peyton Manning's Denver Broncos. After exacting revenge on the Ravens for the 2013 AFC championship game, it would be nice if New England could do the same against Denver for last year's title game. With the weather expected to be much less favorable than the balmy 60 degree day in Colorado last January, look for Brady to get the best of his archrival once again.

How the Royals Won the Pennant

I can't believe I'm writing this. The Royals have won the pennant. They are American League champs. Kansas City is hosting the World Series.

Nobody's been able to say that in 29 years. Not since 1985 have the Royals appeared in the Fall Classic (which they won, by the way, in seven games over the St. Louis Cardinals). The intervening three decades have not been kind to the team or its fans. As Joe Posnanski loves to remind us, they were filled with numerous boneheaded plays, poor personnel decisions, inadequate spending, questionable managing, and of course, many, many losses.

That generally terrible performance finally came to an end last year, when Kansas City won 86 games and stayed in contention for much of the season. They were a young team on the rise, loaded with talented position players, a shut-down bullpen, and just enough veteran pitching to hold it all together. Some, myself included, picked the Royals to make the playoffs, albeit as one of the two wild card teams.

Sure enough, that's what happened. KC wasn't good enough to prevent the Tigers from capturing their fourth straight division title, but as one of the five best teams in the American League they earned a postseason berth. Honestly, I didn't expect them to make it past the wild card playoff, much less all the way to the World Series.

But here we are, in the middle of October, and that's the situation we find ourselves in. The Kansas City Royals are the last team standing in the American League.

First they had to get by the Oakland A's, a superior team in every regard. They had to go through Jon Lester, one of the American League's best pitchers this year and an awesome postseason pitcher. They trailed 7-3 entering the bottom of the eighth inning. Somehow, they found a way to win in extra innings.

Then Kansas City was paired up with the star-studded Los Angeles Angels, the best team in baseball at 98-64. The Royals, an 89-win team, appeared to have little chance, especially after expending their ace, James Shields, in the play-in game. Somehow, they swept the Halos, winning the first two games in extra innings before routing Mike Trout and co. in Game 3.

In the ALCS the Royals were pitted against the Baltimore Orioles, winners of 96 games and the AL East. Baltimore boasted a fearsome lineup, one that led all of baseball in home runs. Except Baltimore's booming bats fell silent against the Royals, managing just two big flies (courtesy of Adam Jones and Ryan Flaherty) as they were swept in four games, all of which were decided by two runs or less.

Now the red-hot Royals, winners of their last eight, can catch their breath. They have nearly a week to rest uo as the NLCS is decided between San Francisco and St. Louis. Then, on October 21st, they will take the field at Kauffman Stadium as they get back to the business of bringing Kansas City its first World Series championship in three decades.

Birds, Nats Clinch

Washington won its second division title in three years (Vavel)

Last night was a great night to be a baseball fan from the D.C. metro area. In Atlanta the Nationals blanked the Braves 3-0 to clinch the NL East for the second time in three years. In Baltimore the Orioles won their first division title since 1997, bludgeoning the Blue Jays 8-2 in front of a celebratory home crowd of 35,000-plus.

But while both of the nation's capital's baseball teams ended up in the same place--at the top of their division and postseason-bound--how they got there turns out to be two very different yet similar stories

It's impossible to talk about this season without first mentioning 2012, when both teams shed their also-ran status by making the playoffs. Washington was the best team in baseball that year, winners of 98 games and clear favorites to win the National League. The former Montreal Expos had been more or less irrelevant since moving to Washington after the 2004 season, never winning more than 81 games and finishing last in their division five times, but thanks to an influx of young talent and a killer pitching staff that had changed practically overnight. For the first time since 1933, there was playoff baseball in our nation's capitol.

That same year, the Baltimore Orioles also came out of nowhere to make the playoffs, winning 93 games and the AL Wild Card. The once-proud franchise had endured 15 straight losing seasons prior to its magical turnaround, going from a 69-93 last-place finish in 2011 to two games out of first the following year.

The Nationals were a veritable juggernaut. The Orioles were a Cinderella story, a good team that overachieved due to extraordinary luck in one-run games. And yet they both met the same fate: eliminated from the Division Series in five games, with Baltimore falling to their mighty division rivals from New York and Washington losing to the defending World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals.

Still, 2012 was a banner year for the Nats, who were poised to be the crown jewel of the Senior Circuit for the foreseeable future. That season marked not just the beginning of a new era in Washington baseball, but also appeared to signal a changing of the guard in the NL East, a transition away from the Braves dynasty and Phillies mini-dynasty. With their tantalizing core of young position players (Bryce Harper, Ian Desmond, Wilson Ramos) and plentiful pitching (Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez), Washington was armed and ready be kings of NL East for years to come.

For the first time since Clinton's presidency, the O's are AL East champs (Baltimore Sun)

The Orioles, on the other hand, were treated as a fluke. There was no such talk of a repeat performance in 2013, much less the next Orioles dynasty. They had an outstanding core of in-their-prime position players (Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Nick Markakis, J.J. Hardy), but not nearly enough arms to match their competitors in the AL East. Everyone knew that with natural regression they'd likely be a .500-ish team in 2013, and that's basically what happened. They won 85 games and fell back to the pack, finishing tied-for-third with the Yankees behind pitching-rich Boston and Tampa Bay. Nobody saw Baltimore as underachievers that year, but rather a club that played to its true talent level.

Not so with the Nationals, the preseason favorites to win the World Series. Washington was shockingly irrelevant last summer, 16 games out of first and four below .500 on the morning of August 20th. A late surge pushed them 10 games over .500 but still left them 10 back of the Braves and out of the playoffs. Almost the exact same results as the Orioles, one might notice, but drastically different expectations led to the Nationals' season being viewed as a massive disappointment, if not an outright failure.

Both responded with significant roster upgrades over the winter--Baltimore inked Nelson Cruz and Ubaldo Jimenez while Washington stole Doug Fister from Detroit--and have come back strong. The Nationals reclaimed their status as the top dog in their division and, as of this writing, the National League. Not that they had much competition--Atlanta was the only other rival with legitimate postseason hopes and now sits below .500--but first place wasn't guaranteed until mid-August, when Washington won 10 in a row and 12 out of 13 to wrap up the division. They've continued to roll since, breaking away from the pack and building their lead up to its high-water mark of 12.5 games.

Baltimore, on the other hand, wasn't given a snowball's chance in hell to win the AL East before the season began. The Orioles were widely viewed as one of the two weakest teams in the division, with the other being the Blue Jays. Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay were expected to duke it out for the top spot. Nobody gave Baltimore a second thought.

So when the Orioles were in first place for a good while in May, nobody thought it would last. And while they were only a few games over .500 for most of June, that was enough to stay near the top of the division. In early July they made their move, winning 10 of 13 leading up to the All-Star break to finish the first half 10 games above .500 and with a four game lead in the AL East. They've been in first place every day since, putting away the division with a torrid second half. Since the last day of June they've gone 49-21. That's a .700 winning percentage, folks, spanning almost half a season.

It's fitting that both teams ran away with their divisions around the same time, and that they'll likely finish the season with similar records. Because for the second time in three years, both teams will be playing in October, vying for the chance to compete in the first-ever all-DC area Fall Classic (a Beltway Series, I guess?). While I'd rather see a Freeway Series between the more exciting Dodgers and Angels (Yasiel Puig, Clayton Kershaw, and Mike Trout on the game's grandest stage? Yes please), that would be a pretty good series in its own right.

Champions

After finishing last in their division a year ago, Boston is number one (LATimes)

For the third time in ten years and eighth time in franchise history, the Boston Red Sox are World Series champions.

They made it official with last night's 6-1 win over the St. Louis Cardinals, a relatively stress-free game that was almost anti-climactic after the string of tight games that preceded it. Boston scored early and often in this one, jumping all over rookie Michael Wacha, who had been all but untouchable this postseason until last night, when he left in the fourth and suffered his first October loss. Shane Victorino--the hero of Game 6 in the ALCS--delivered a huge bases-clearing double in the bottom of the third to make it 3-0 Red Sox. The next inning saw Boston score three more runs on a solo home run by Stephen Drew, then two-out RBI singles from Victorino and Mike Napoli after Lance Lynn replaced Wacha.

The Cardinals had plenty of chances to stage a comeback, but simply couldn't come up with any key hits. They went 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position and left nine men on base; two in the second, fourth, fifth, and three in the seventh (ouch). Sometimes it was bad luck--balls scorched right at Red Sox fielders who, had they been a few feet to either side, would not have made the play. Instead, they snagged these screaming liners for hard-luck outs. But when you hit .330 with runners in scoring position during the regular season, as the Cardinals did, your luck is going to run out at some point. It just happened at the worst possible time.

The Redbirds' last real chance to do damage was the top of the seventh, when they had a faltering John Lackey on the ropes. Lackey had been getting himself into and out of trouble all night long, but St. Louis finally got on the board when Carlos Beltran (who else?) singled Daniel Descalso home with two outs. A wild pitch and walk to Matt Holliday followed, loading the bases and driving Lackey from the game to a roaring applause. That brought up Allen Craig, who had already singled twice--including a rocket off the Monster--and was looking suddenly dangerous at the plate. He was unable to get the big hit here though, grounding out against Junichi Tazawa to end the frame.

The Cardinals, utterly defeated, did not manage another baserunner the rest of the night. They went down 1-2-3 versus Brandon Workman in the eighth and were no match for Koji Uehara, who fanned Matt Carpenter to end the game and launch the World Series victory party, one that Fenway Park had not experienced since 1918.

The series MVP was David Ortiz of course, though there was certainly a case to be made that he should've shared it with Jon Lester. Ortiz was the dominant offensive force in this series, reaching base in nine consecutive at-bats at one point and batting an otherworldly .688/.760/1.188. He instilled so much fear in Mike Matheny and Cardinals pitchers alike that he was walked four times--three intentionally--in Game 6. But Lester, who won Games 1 and 5 by allowing just one earned run, also deserves his share of credit. With Clay Buchholz hurting and Jake Peavy ineffective, Lester needed to be at his very best (especially against Adam Wainwright), and he was, racking up 15 Ks against one walk in a pair of masterful starts.

And so because of Big Papi, Lester, and others, the Red Sox--the weirdos with the beardos--are champions of the world. At this point there's not a whole lot that can be said about them that hasn't been said already. There was a different hero every night, it seemed; Napoli in Game 1, Jonny Gomes in Game 4, David Ross in Game 5 and Victorino in Game 6. The pitching, minus Peavy and a few hiccups from Craig Breslow, was stellar. Their defense was pretty good too, much sharper than the Cardinals who were done in by their own miscues on multiple occasions. John Farrell made his share of head-scratching moves (Letting Workman hit? preferring Gomes over Daniel Nava?), but for the most part he pushed the right buttons even when his strategies seemed unconventional (using Lackey in relief, sticking with a slumping Drew at short). He clearly outmaneuvered Matheny, who rode his starters too long and did not deploy his devastating bullpen as well as he should have.

In the end, the Red Sox were simply the better team. They got the big hits when they needed them, made the big pitches to get out of jams, and made dazzling plays in the field. They capitalized on more opportunities than St. Louis did. The best team won. There's really nothing more to say.