Monday, May 14, 2012

NBA Conference Semifinals Predictions

East

Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers

This matchup intrigues me because both teams play great defense (Heat are better) and feature strong offenses that were rated .  The Pacers are one of, if not the, deepest teams in the NBA, but lacks a true star--Danny Granger is very good, but like a Joe Johnson he is miscast as a franchise player.  Meanwhile Miami, minus Chris Bosh who is out indefinitely with an abdominal strain, will rely on Dwyane Wade and three time MVP LeBron James, its tandem of superstars, to win games. Indiana needs to exploit an obvious mismatch in the frontcourt, where they have All-Stars Roy Hibbert and David West lined up against the likes of Joel Anthony, Udonis Haslem and Ronny Turiaf.  They caught a big break with Bosh's injury, which further depletes Miami's already weak bench/frontcourt, but they couldn't capitalize on Bosh's absence in the second half of Game 1 and blew a nine point first half lead.  Bosh was always the third wheel, anyways.  Ultimately James and Wade will be too much for the Pacers to handle, as the duo showed by scoring 22 of the Heat's 25 fourth quarter points.  Depth is nice for the long, grinding regular season, but in a short playoff series the teams blessed with elite players typically have the upper hand.

Heat in five

Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers

Already previewed the series in greater detail.  Liked what I saw from the Celtics in the second half of Game 1, especially Rajon Rondo's relatively quiet triple double, but they have to play better tonight.  The Sixers should have won but made some costly mistakes down the stretch, and their inexperience could come back to bite them.  With Andre Iguodala locking down Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett will need to sustain his excellent play of late and Avory Bradley has to find a way to contribute offensively if he's going to start over Ray Allen. 

Celtics in six

West

San Antonio Spurs vs Los Angeles Clippers

The well-rested Spurs take on the battle-weary Clippers, who barely managed to outlast the Memphis Grizzlies in a hard-fought seven game series.  Chris Paul and Tony Parker both finished in the top five of the MVP voting and are clearly two of the best point guards in the game right now, so that matchup should be fun to watch.  I believe Tim Duncan will do a good job of containing Blake Griffin and limiting his impact down low.  Both teams have good benches, too, so in that regard neither side holds an advantage.  Speaking in general terms, it's clear that San Antonio has the superior playoff pedrigree; they're polished, efficient, function much better as a unit, and can tap into a deep well of playoff experience.  The Clippers, on the other hand, are rougher around the edges with their shoddy free throw shooting and suspect defense.  Don't overlook the coaching matchup, either, where Greg Poppovich dominates the borderline incompetent Vinny Del Negro.  This will be a good series, but I think the Spurs will be better prepared.

Spurs in six

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers

The Thunder are young and rested, while the Lakers are slow and tired, but this will still be a great series to watch.  The up-and-coming Thunder, poised to launch a dynasty of their own, are challenging one of the NBA's most successful franchises for supremacy in West.  We get to see the top two scorers in the league, Kevin Durant and Kobe Bryant, duke it out.  With Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins the Thunder have the length and size to matchup with LA's twin towers, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum, and potentially neutralize them.  Russell Westbrook should have his way with Ramon Sessions.

Thunder in seven

Reviewing First Round NBA Playoff Predictions

The first round of NBA playoffs is over.  Two weeks ago I made predictions for the eight series, and since I like to hold myself accountable I'll take a look back to see how I did before making some more predictions tomorrow.

East

1 Chicago vs 8 Philadelphia
Prediction-Chicago in six
Reality-Philadelphia in six
Analysis-Got the length right, but messed up on the teams.  I think we can all agree that the Bulls would have won this series had Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah been healthy, but for the Celtics' sake I'm glad the Sixers advanced.

2 Miami vs 7 New York
Prediction-Miami in five
Reality-Miami in five
Analysis-This one was a no-brainer.  As expected, the Knicks were nothing more than glorified doormats for the LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, who are eyeing another NBA finals appearance after crumbling against the Mavericks last June.  Not surprisingly, New York needed a monster game from Carmelo Anthony just to secure a win in this series.  Miami should have swept.

3 Indiana vs 6 Orlando
Prediction-Indiana in five
Reality-Indiana in five
Analysis-Nailed it.  Without Dwight Howard, I'm surprised the shorthanded Magic even won a game against a deep Pacers squad.  If D-Ho had played, I think this would have been a great series, but we'll never know.

4 Boston vs 5 Atlanta
Prediction-Boston in five
Reality-Boston in six
Analysis-Josh Smith and Joe Johnson missed scores of open jumpers, while Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett delivered throwback performances.  Al Horford's return late in the series made things interesting before he choked with the season on the line during the final seconds of Game 6.  Speaking of missed free throws, what was going on with Ray Allen during this series?  He looked like Blake Griffin at the charity stripe.

West

1 San Antonio vs 8 Utah
Prediction-San Antonio in five
Reality-San Antonio in four
Analysis-Thought Utah's frontcourt of Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap would give the Spurs bigs some trouble, but the duo couldn't overcome San Antonio's solid all-around play.  Tim Duncan and co. will be well-rested for their upcoming series with the Clips.

2 Oklahoma City vs 7 Dallas
Prediction-Oklahoma City in five
Reality-Oklahoma City in four
Analysis-Dallas didn't have enough guns to defend its title.  The Thunder are much younger and infinitely more talented.  The Mavs, who got unlucky in the first two games, put up a good fight but didn't catch the breaks.

3 Lakers vs 6 Denver
Prediction-Lakers in six
Reality-Lakers in seven
Analysis-The faster Nuggets gave the Slow-Time Lakers a run for their money after Los Angeles jumped out to a 3-1 series lead, but in the end LA's size advantage with Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum was too significant to overcome.  There was no chance in hell that Kobe Bryant was going to let his team lose a Game 7 at home, either.

4 Memphis vs 5 Clippers
Prediction-Memphis in seven
Reality-Clippers in seven
Analysis-Right length, wrong team.  On the surface this looked like a great matchup that would go down to the wire, and the series didn't disappoint.  LA took a 3-1 series lead, only to let the Griz come back and force a Game 7 in Memphis.  Luckily for the Clippers, their bench dominated the Grizzlies' reserves, outscoring them 41-11 in the decisive game.  I still think Memphis is the better team.

Saturday, May 12, 2012

Celtics-Sixers Preview

Iguodala is one of the best wing defenders in the league,
but he won't be able to shut down the Truth
Tonight the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers will square off at the TD Garden for Game 1 of what is shaping up to be an intriguing postseason matchup.  These divisional rivals, meeting in the postseason for the first time in a decade, couldn't look more different on paper.  The Sixers are young and deep, but lack a true superstar (Andre Iguodala is the closest thing they have to one, and he averaged 12.4 points per game).  On the other hand, the Celtics are calcifying before our eyes, but have three surefire Hall of Famers in Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, as well as an elite point guard in Rajon Rondo.  But despite these differences, they play the same brand of basketball, relying on elite defense to compensate for their so-so offenses.

I've already covered the Celtics rollercoaster season in this space before, so I'll spend some time on their opponents.  The Sixers used their youth and depth to enjoy an 18-7 start while other teams were still getting in shape and learning to play together.  Their strong play turned a lot of heads in the early going, and they found themselves on top of the Atlantic Divsion for the majority of the season as the Celtics and Knicks struggled. But then they got dinged up; Spencer Hawes missed a good chunk of time, Elton Brand regressed after a strong bounce back campaign last season, and Iggy always seemed to be fighting through an assortment of minor injuries.  That, combined with Jrue Holiday's maddening inconsistency and a tough schedule, helped Philadelphia fade during the second half, finish third in their division and make the playoffs as the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference with a 35-31 record (Interestingly it looks like they severely underperformed this season, as their expected win-loss was 43-23). 

Matched up with the Chicago Bulls in the first round, Philadelphia seemed destined for an early exit. Nobody, myself included, gave them much of a chance against the top team in the East, but they caught an enormous break when Derrick Rose tore his ACL during the Bulls Game 1 win.  His absence changed he entire complexion of the series on a dime, and the Sixers capitalized on their good fortune by blasting the demoralized Bulls in Game 2 to even the series at one game apiece as the series shifted back to Philly.

So with Chicago already playing shorthanded, Joakim Noah's sprained ankle in Game 3, another Sixer win, sealed their fate.  Noah did not return, and with him went his elite defense and the Bulls' interior presence.  Philadelphia took Game 4, and for all intents and purposes the series was over.  The Bulls, as predicted, made a stand in Chicago to take Game 5 and emerged on top in a game that was 35-26 at the half and saw Philadelphia shoot just 32 percent from the floor.  Back in the City of Brotherly Love for Game 6, Chicago took Philly to the wire and nearly forced a Game 7. The Bulls were clinging to a three point lead with 25 seconds left when Thaddeus Young got to the rim (would he have if Noah was still patrolling the paint?) for an easy two and Noah's replacement, Omer Asik, was hacked and bricked both his free throws.  Andre Iguodala attacked the basket in transition, drew a foul with 2.2 seconds left, and knocked down his freebies to clinch the series (only the fifth time an 8 seed has ever gotten the best of a number one seed in the first round, and it happened last year too when Memphis upset the Spurs).

So now the Sixers have advanced beyond the first round, something they haven't done since 2003 aka the Allen Iverson era.  Meanwhile, Boston has made it at least that far every year of the Big 3 era, losing only in 2009 when Kevin Garnett was out (forcing Rivers to give Brian Scalabrine far too many minutes) and last season, when LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh steamrolled them on the way to the Finals.  They have much more postseason experience, and by this point they've pretty much seen it all.

This series is sure to feature close games and defensive minded, grind 'em out slugfests.  Philly has the better bench, but the Celts have the superior starting five.  I give the Celtics the edge on offense, but the two defenses couldn't be more evenly matched. I'm confident that Boston's offense will be able to do just enough, even with Pierce banged up and Allen slumping, and that Philadelphia's lack of a go-to scorer will hurt them in crunch time.  The Sixers really struggled to put the ball in the hole against the Bulls, and the Celtics will be just as stingy.  For what it's worth, the Sixers won the season series 2-1, and all three games were blowouts as Boston lost by 32 and 13, but won by 24.  Doug Collins and Doc are both great coaches, so they essentially cancel each other out.

My prediction: Celtics in six

Pair of Game 7's

Los Angeles' two NBA franchises will be playing decisive Game 7s this weekend to determine their postseason fate.  Both were up 3-1 in their series, after losing a close game and a blowout they find themselves in do-or-die matchups (I will refrain from making a Battle: LA reference here).

Tonight-Nuggets @ Lakers (10:30 PM EST)

The Lakers seized the initiative with a 3-1 series lead and seemed poised to put away the Nuggets with homecourt advantage for Game 5.  But Denver got off to a good start and never looked back, maintaining a lead over LA for the remainder of the game.  The Lakers, led by Kobe Bryant's 43 points, rallied in the fourth quarter to trim the deficit to one point after a Ramon Sessions three with 14 seconds left, but Andre Miller knocked down both free throws to put the Nuggets back up by three.  Bryant and Sessions missed final possession three point attempts, and the Nugs escaped with a 102-99 victory to send the series back to the Rockies.

Bryant battled a stomach bug in Game 6 and still managed to drop 31 points, but it wasn't enough as Denver crushed LA 113-96.  Nuggets point guard Ty Lawson erupted for 32 points, drilling five treys and connecting on 13 of 18 field goal attempts.  Once again Denver came out guns blazing, scoring thirteen unanswered points to open the game.  By the second half they were cruising and it was clear the Lakers were not going to recover.
Game 7 will be a hard fought battle between the Lakers and Nuggets
This young Nuggets squad seems to have shifted the momentum in this series.  Their offense is on a roll and I'm rooting for them to upset LA tonight.  However, I still have faith that the Lakers won't fold given their extensive playoff experience and key advantage in the paint (Andrew Bynum is going to have a big game after being held to just eleven points in Game 6).  Bryant, the most competitive player alive simply won't allow it.  In addition, they will benefit from the return of Metta World Peace, who's back after a seven game suspension for clocking James Harden.  Peace plays excellent defense and provides plenty of his trademark fiery intensity, so he may provide the sagging Lakers a much needed spark.  This game could go either way, but I think the aging Lakers will bounce back and win decisively.  The victor will play the Thunder.

Tomorrow afternoon-Clippers @ Grizzlies (1 PM EST)

This series has followed the same pattern as the Lakers series.  The Clips jumped out to a 3-1 lead, but traveled to Memphis for their closeout game and dug themselves a huge hole when they fell behind by 24 points with three minutes remaining in the third quarter.  Despite injuries to Blake Griffin (twisted knee) and Chris Paul (groin) that forced the duo out of the game in the fourth, LA made a spirited run to cut the lead to six. Memphis didn't panic, though, and finished the game strong to secure a 92-80 victory.

So with CP3 and BG hobbled in Game 6, the Grizzlies managed to eek out a 90-88 thriller at the Staples Center.  Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph stuffed the stat sheet as the Griz crushed the Clippers on the glass, outrebounding LA 66-40.  Los Angeles held an eight point fourth quarter lead, only to squander every ounce of it.  Randy Foye nailed a trey with 3.7 seconds left in the game to pull within two, but the Clips were slow to match up after the basket and allowed Memphis to inbound the ball and break away before they could commit a foul.
Gasol and Z-Bo pack a devastating punch in the frontcourt
I've said all along that the Grizzlies are the better team, and with homecourt advantage in Game 7 I think they win a close game and advance to play the Spurs in the conference semis.

Friday, May 11, 2012

Face of the Franchise: MLB Edition

Who's the face of each MLB team?  I took into account several factors such as name recognition, overall performance and length of tenure with their respective clubs.

AL East

Baltimore Orioles-Matt Wieters
The big, slugging backstop has been a of the club's future since scouts compared him to Joe Mauer, but with more power.  After a slow start to his career Wieters finally broke out during the second half of last year and his fast start has him primed for a monster season.  I thought long and hard about Brian Roberts, who's been there since 2001, but it's tough to choose somebody who hasn't been relevant since 2009.  Also considered Nick Markakis and Adam Jones.

Boston Red Sox-David Ortiz
The longest tenured member of the team now that Tim Wakefield and Jason Varitek retired during the offseason.  Kevin Youkilis is the only other remaining player from the legendary 2004 curse-breaking band of Idiots.  Big Papi has been a fixture in the heart of Boston's lineup for ten years now, and shows no signs of slowing down. 

New York Yankees-Derek Jeter
You could try to make a case for Mariano Rivera, but why bother?  Jeet's been making memories in pinstripes since 1995, and by now his name is as synonymous with the Bombers as Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio, and Mickey Mantle.  Even on a team of All-Stars, he's still the star.  Robinson Cano is poised to inherit the title whenever DJ2 decides to hang it up.

Tampa Bay Rays-Evan Longoria
The franchise transformed themselves from AL East doormats to perennial contenders in 2008, Longo's rookie year.  Since his debut, the Rays have developed into a powerhouse that can hold its own with the mighty Yankees and Red Sox.  Also gave some thought to "Big Game" James Shields.

Toronto Blue Jays-Jose Bautista
On August 21st, 2008 the Pittsburgh Pirates traded Joey Bats for Robinzon Diaz.  Straight up.  Diaz played 43 games and has been out of baseball since 2009.  Bautista evolved into one of the best hitters in the game. 

AL Central

Chicago White Sox-Paul Konerko
Has been a rock at first base for the Sox since 1999.  Just slugged his 400th home run, and if he can play until age 40 he'll have an outside shot at 500 dingers.

Cleveland Indians-Travis Hafner
Pronk's in his tenth season with the Tribe.  Injuries have devastated the second half of his career, but when healthy he can still provide some pop.  Grady Sizemore (still only 29) should be the face of the franchise, but his once promising career fell apart halfway through the '09 campaign.

Detroit Tigers-Justin Verlander
The anchor of Motown's staff is arguably the best pitcher in baseball and has already netted a Rookie of the Year, Cy Young and MVP trophy

Kansas City Royals-Billy Butler
Already in his sixth season with the Royals, Butler's been the main force of KC's lineup.  Alex Gordon was the more highly regarded prospect, and Eric Hosmer looks like a Joey Votto in the making, but nobody's been steadier than Butler.

Minnesota Twins-Joe Mauer
The MVP and three time batting champion is in the second season of an eight year, $184 million contract that should keep him in a Twins uniform through 2018.  Justin Morneau's demise has assured that Mauer Power will remain a franchise icon for the remainder of the decade.

AL West

Los Angeles Angels-Albert Pujols
The Halos didn't really have one (Jered Weaver?) before the Machine arrived.  He's going to be there for the next ten years so...

Oakland Athletics-Yoenis Cespedes
The A's have gone through a lot of roster turnover during the past decade and is completely devoid of star players.  A homeless man's Vladimir Guerrero, the free-swinging Cuban import attracts a lot of attention with his prodigious power and high strikeout totals.

Seattle Mariners-Ichiro Suzuki
The fan favorite and .325 career hitter has spent his whole career in Seattle.
.
Texas Rangers-Michael Young
Apologies to Josh Hamilton, but Young has spent every one of his thirteen seasons with the Rangers, though Texas nearly traded him before last season after bringing in Adrian Beltre to man the hot corner.  The versatile batting champ has played every infield position and DH'ed for them, too.

NL East

Atlanta Braves-Chipper Jones
The Braves' elder statesman has been crafting a Hall of Fame worthy career for 19 seasons in the ATL, making the playoffs eleven times.  He's like the NL version of Jeter, but without the rings and big market.

Miami Marlins-Hanley Ramirez
Han Ram came over with Anibal Sanchez from Boston following the 2005 season in the trade that sent Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell to Beantown.  Since then the slugging shortstop, now playing third to accomodate Jose Reyes, has been named Rookie of the Year, won a batting title and finished second in the 2009 MVP race to Albert Pujols. 

New York Mets-David Wright
Has had his ups and downs recently, but with Reyes and Carlos Beltran gone the team now belongs to him, and he's undoubtedly their most talented player.  He's responded with a scorching start.

Philadelphia Phillies-Ryan Howard
Jimmy Rollins has been there longer, and Chase Utley was more valuable during their respective primes, but the big fella's monster power numbers and pricey contract extension made him the most high-profile member of the National League powerhouse

Washington Nationals-Stephen Strasburg
He and Bryce Harper are the future, but Strasburg's immediate dominance and electrifying pitching performances have overshadowed the teenage outfielder to some degree.  He's already the ace of what might be the best rotation in the Senior Circuit.  Jayson Werth's the one making the big bucks, but in reality he's more of a complementary player.  Meanwhile, Ryan Zimmerman just can't seem to stay healthy.

NL Central

Chicago Cubs-Starlin Castro
Alfonso Soriano has been there longer and is making a lot more money, but Castro's a symbol of hope whereas Soriano represents a gigantic mistake.

Cincinatti Reds-Joey Votto
The best first baseman in the league after Pujols and Prince Fielder jumped ship to the AL last winter.  Brandon Phillips is also worthy of consideration, but Votto's massive contract extension will keep him in Cincy through his 40th birthday.

Houston Astros-Carlos Lee
The only big name on a team of unknowns, El Caballo is one of the few veterans/power threats in a thin, inexperienced lineup.

Milwaukee Brewers-Ryan Braun
With Fielder gone, it's his team.

Pittsburgh Pirates-Andrew McCutchen
The budding superstar on a crappy team.

St. Louis Cardinals-Chris Carpenter
The workhorse has won a Cy Young and helped lead St. Louis to three World Series and a pair of titles since signing there a decade ago.  Adam Wainwright, Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman are all big names, too, but they can't match Carpenter's history.  Too bad he'll be on the DL for quite some time.

NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks-Justin Upton
The Diamondbacks' best position player has a bright future in front of him.  After a slow start he's shown signs of life at the plate recently. 

Colorado Rockies-Todd Helton
The lifelong Rockie has been with the team for sixteen seasons, and until he turned 30 he was putting up Ted Williams-esque numbers with the help of Coors Field.  Even at 38 he can still be productive, but over the last five years or so he's become an every-other-year player due to injuries.

Los Angeles Dodgers-Matt Kemp
Has surpassed Pujols as the best player in baseball and looks like a strong bet to take home the MVP this season after getting stiffed in 2011.  Just inked an eight year, $160 million deal in the offseason to rival Manny Ramirez, the player some say he rivals offensively.

San Diego Padres-Chase Headley
Heath Bell and Mat Latos departed, leaving the third baseman as one of the few recognizable faces on an otherwise terrible roster.  He's in his sixth season with the Pads.

San Francisco Giants-Tim Lincecum
The Freak won back to back NL Cy Youngs in 2008 and 2009, then helped bring San Francisco their first World Series title in 2010.