Starting pitchers typically don't command nine figure contracts, and could never even dream of banking more than $200 million like Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder have in recent years, simply because no general manager in his right mind is going to hand a starter a ten year deal when he could blow out his arm tomorrow and never throw another pitch again. Comparing pitchers and position players is no different than comparing apples and oranges, but it must be said that the former are notoriously riskier investments because they're more volatile. They put so much stress on their arms while slinging a baseball 95 miles per hour, and as a result are much more prone to injury and tend to be less consistent on a year-to-year basis. Everybody know this, yet it remains unbearably frustrating to watch teams pour millions upon millions of dollars into starting pitchers that don't pan out. Don't you think the Red Sox front office would like to have all the money they spent on John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka back? Ask Yankee fans what they have to say about Carl Pavano and A.J. Burnett. And while you're in the area, hitch a ride to Queens and ask the Mets how that Santana deal is working out.
I'm not saying Hamels is going completely fall apart like they did. I don't think he will. But he could, and the very possibility of such an expensive collapse is enough to keep Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. awake at night. If you're a Phillies fan, all you can do is cross your fingers and hope for the best. If he gets hurt, at least the rotation still boasts a pair of Cy Young winners, so things could be worse.
At least Hamels won't have to be worry about what team he'll be pitching for next year, or even next week. There was much speculation that the pending free agent would be traded before the July 31st deadline if both sides were unable to reach an agreement. And even if the Phillies hung on to him for the rest of the season, there was no guarantee they'd be able to retain his services. Not when the 28 year-old southpaw was expected to be one of the most coveted commodities in the open market. Many teams had already expressed interest in the three time All-Star, and had he remained available there would have been potential suitors lined up around the block hoping to acquire his services. Philadelphia may have outbid itself--we'll never know--but that's the cost of securing him early and avoiding protracted, potentially messy negotiations or a bidding war. It's not like Hamels was going to give them a hometown discount, anyways.
So the question about where Cole Hamels will pitch has been answered. Now the question is this: will Cole Hamels be worth $144 million?
Hamels is good. Really good. With the exception of 2009, when he went 10-11 with a 4.32 ERA during the regular season before wetting the bed in the playoffs, you can't find much to complain about his track record. His postseason resume, highlighted by NLCS MVP and World Series MVP honors in Philadelphia's glorious 2008 championship run, is just as impressive. He's been everything you could ever ask for out of a starting pitcher. Still, at this point in his career it's safe to say that he falls just outside of the elite class of Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, and Sabathia. He's not quite on their level. Not even in the conversation. To me, he's in the tier below them, more of a Matt Cain/Dan Haren/Jon Lester type. When I think of the top hurlers in the game, the bona fide aces, Hamels never springs to mind. Maybe it's because he doesn't create that special buzz of energy at the ballpark. Maybe it has something to do with his lack of explosive velocity and intimidating mound presence. Maybe I just haven't seen him pitch enough.
Just to be clear, in no way, shape or form am I doubting the fact that Cole Hamels is a great pitcher. After examining his statistics, I realized that I've been underrating him for quite some time. He's durable, his peripherals are always excellent and he's one of the most consistent pitchers in the game. But so has the aforementioned Cain, who just inked in his own contract extension but at 78 percent of the cost. Statistically they're very similar, and Cain is nearly a full year younger but will make $30 million less. Hamels is better than Cain, but not that much better. It's splitting hairs, really. And besides, $24 million a year seems like an awful lot of money to give a pitcher who:
-Has never won more than 15 games in any season, though he's on pace to do it here in 2012
-Has just one season (2010) with more than 200 strikeouts
-Has just one season (2011) with an ERA below three
-Hasn't thrown a shutout since 2009
I'm just not convinced he'll be worth the dough. And since the Phillies can no longer rely on their core of Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and Chase Utley--all on the wrong side of 30--to remain both healthy and productive, I think it would have made more sense to reserve those funds to address the lineup, which will only get weaker if and when Hunter Pence is traded. If I were Amaro, I would have dealt Hamels, kept Pence (the second best hitter on the team in the first half behind Carlos Ruiz) and stashed the money to pursue some much needed offensive firepower in the offseason. Now with so much money--more than $100 million--committed to Hamels, Howard, Utley, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Jonathan Papelbon, it seems unlikely that he'll be able to make a serious run at free-agents-to-be Josh Hamilton, Michael Bourn or B.J. Upton.
Unlikely, but not impossible.
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