All-Star Snubs

Another round of All-Star balloting has come and gone, so that means a few more days of roster analysis before they play the actual game which, I don't know if you've heard, supposedly counts for something because it determines home field advantage for the World Series, a gimmick that I'll save for another post. Every year we have the same discussions about who got snubbed and who didn't deserve to make the team and how is it even possible to get snubbed when it seems like half the league made the team in the first place?  It's not life or death--people aren't rioting in the streets Cincinatti because Johnny Cueto didn't make the National League team--but baseball fans don't just ignore the results and move on with our lives.  They do matter to some small degree, even if it's only a little bit.  We expend time, energy, and words talking about it even though snubs are inevitable for a variety of reasons.

1) You can start voting in April (practically Opening Day) when everybody's tuning in to get their baseball fix after a long winter layoff, which allows players with hot starts (see LaHair, Bryan) to get some early exposure and build momentum throughout the spring while simultaneously penalizing players who take awhile to get going (see Goldschmidt, Paul). By June they could have the same stats, but the slow starter will have a lot of ground to make up in the voting. 2) Lesser known players in smaller markets (Cueto) tend to be forgotten about, while star players in big cities don't (Derek Jeter).  And don't forget East Coast Bias! 3) Everybody votes differently.  Some people vote with their hearts, others use their minds, and I'm sure there are more than a few who check off all the players, even the crummy ones, that wear the jerseys of their hometown team.  My philosophy is to always vote for the players having the best seasons, no matter who they play for or what their track records look like.  I'm a Red Sox fan, and I voted for Robinson Cano over Dustin Pedroia.  Because of that will I rot in hell for an eternity?  Probably not.

The All-Star Game has always been a popularity contest through and through, for the fans and by the fans. so I try not to get too worked up over it.  Contrary to what MLB's advertising campaign will have you believe, it's just a meaningless exhibition game.  If the game actually mattered, the starters wouldn't be gone by the fifth inning.  If the game actually mattered, the players would care.  If the game actually mattered, managers wouldn't play musical chairs trying to get everybody in the game.  If the game actually mattered, the best players would get to go, no matter what, even if it meant teams like the Padres couldn't send Huston Street.  If the game actually mattered, people might actually watch (did I go too far there?)  So come on, baseball, lighten up.  Just be realistic and treat the All-Star Game for what it is; a mildly amusing baseball game in the middle of July, when there's not a whole lot to do and not much else on the tube.  It still beats the hell out of the Pro Bowl.

But while I'm on the topic, I might as well throw my two cents in on a few All-Star snubs.  Sorry in advance if I hurt anybody's feelings.


Zack Greinke left out in the Wisconsin cold
By far the most egregious snub of the entire process.  The 2009 AL Cy Young recipient and sabermetric darling is, by most measures, having a superlative all-around season.  He's posting the best ERA, ERA+, WHIP, homer rate and walk rate since that dominant summer with Kansas City three years ago.  His stellar 2.38 FIP and 2.79 xFIP are both substantially lower than his 3.08 ERA, leading me to believe that he's been victimized by the shaky defense behind him (Aramis Ramirez and Rickie Weeks have been the worst offenders, but Alex Gonzalez, Corey Hart, and Mat Gamel aren't much help with the leather, either).   I'm just going to throw out some stats, with his rank among National League pitchers in parentheses:
.818 Win-Loss % (2)
17 games started (2)
0.43 HR/9 rate (3)
2.7 bWAR (5)
9 wins (6)
4.42 K/BB ratio (6)
106 strikeouts (7)
Much like Ian Kennedy last year, this All-Star snub could very well wind up with 20 wins and/or Cy Young consideration.


Matt Wieters pushes Pierzynski aside
In a battle receivers who are both helping their teams exceed preseason expectations, the rejuvenated A.J. Pierzynski has the upper hand.  After perusing their statistics (pretty close in most areas) I found that Chicago's backstop has the egde in runs scored, hits, triples, home runs, RBI, all three triple slash stats, OPS+, and total bases. Wieters holds the high ground in doubles, walks, and bWAR because he's a better defender (and should be, since he's nine and a half years younger and much more athletic).  I think Pierzynski deserved to start for the AL team over Mike Napoli, but I'm not too shocked that he didn't make the squad because a) you knew the fans wouldn't vote for him (no name recognition) and b) there was no chance in hell the players were going pick him just three weeks after they voted him the most hated player in baseball. His dirty, scrappy style of play and take-no-prisoners attitude get on the nerves of his opponents, and now he's paying the price for it because this was probably his last chance to play in the Midsummer Classic; the 35 year-old is on the back nine of his career with a reputation as a good, but not great catcher that made just two All-Star teams in his 15 seasons, many of which have been overshadowed by the likes of Jorge Posada, Jason Varitek, and Joe Mauer.  Wieters represents the opposite end of the spectrum; his name has always been bigger than his performance on the field because of the exorbitant amount of hype he received as a top prospect and up-and-coming catcher.  Wieters, a key piece in Baltimore's rebuilding process (along with outfielders Adam Jones and Nick Markakis) is coming into his prime years and hasn't yet reached his ceiling.  He's supposed to be the next Mauer, a superstar who can reinvigorate a team that, until now, hasn't been relevant since Cal Ripken Jr.'s Iron Man streak ended.  I'm sure he'll be a fixture in the All-Star Game for the remainder of the decade, but that spot belonged to Pierzynski this year.

Jake Peavy loses Final Vote to Darvish
Poor Peavy, who's having his best season since his heyday with the Padres and has pitched infinitely better than his lousy 6-5 record indicates.  I pleaded his case last weekend when he was one of the five AL Final Vote candidates, but am not surprised that the fans ultimately chose the more electrifying (and erratic) Yu Darvish.  Understandable, but still wrong.  Just look at Peavy's numbers (AL rank in parentheses):
1 shutout (2)
3.8 bWAR (3)
4.21 K/BB rate (3)
0.99 WHIP (4)
1.92 BB/9 rate (4)
112 and two-thirds innings pitched (5)
7.03 H/9 rate (5)
144 ERA+ (5)
2.96 ERA (6)
101 strikeouts (8)
As long as he stays healthy, he should be in the conversation for the rest of the season.  You can't say the same about Darvish, who probably won't even win Rookie of the Year with the way Mike Trout is playing.

No Edwin Encarnacion
The 29 year-old has always teased us with the power, but now he's finally putting it all together and is on his way to a monster year.  Just take a look at the American League hitting leaderboard, and you'll find Encarnacion's name plastered all over it.  Simply put, he's been one of the best all-around hitters in baseball during the first half, and his omission is a glaring oversight.  Yes, the defense is terrible, but that's why he's the Blue Jays primary Designated Hitter.  Besides, he didn't earn the nickname "E-5" for nothing. 
66 runs created (4)
22 home runs (5)
.564 SLG (5)
168 total bases (6)
13.5 AB/HR rate (6)
56 RBI (7)
3 oWAR (7)
.943 OPS (9)
53 runs (10)
.379 OBP (10)
149 OPS+ (10)
Not so sure he can keep hitting close to .300 the rest of the way, but 40 homers, 110 RBI, 100 runs and 15 steals (he's eight-for-ten so far) are all within the realm of possibility.  At a price tag of just $3.5 million, about a tenth of what Alex Rodriguez hauled in last year, he's a veritable bargain.

Ryan Cook (1.7 bWAR) over Josh Reddick (3.1 bWAR)?!
Reddick's pedestrian .259 batting average, which hopefully you can overlook, has been the only blemish on an otherwise excellent stat line from the 25 year-old breakout.  With 19 bombs (tied for tenth in the league with Trevor Plouffe) he's accounted for nearly one-quarter of his team's 81 home runs, and in an alternate reality where the likes of Kurt Suzuki, Cliff Pennington, Coco Crisp, Brandon Inge and Jemile Weeks didn't submarine Oakland's offense day in and day out, he would surely have more than 41 RBI.  Given that supporting cast, it's a minor miracle that he's currently on pace to score 100 runs.  He does more than just mash, though; he's a perfect eight-for-eight in stolen base opportunities and also plays above average defense in rightfield, blessed with athleticism and a strong arm that's already gunned down eight overzealous opponents on the basepaths (only Jose Bautista has more among AL outfielders).  He's the clear MVP of an A's squad that has surprisingly hovered around .500 in the first half, the only legitimate lineup threat (besides Yoenis Cespedes, I guess) who's making Billy Beane look like a genius (again) for dealing Andrew Bailey/Ryan Sweeney for him, and yet he is not the team's lone All-Star selection?!   Instead it's rookie Ryan Cook, who's been the A's closer for less than a month, who inherited the job only because first Grant Balfour, and then Brian Fuentes, couldn't hold it, who has saved all of eight games this season.  Granted, Cook's easily been the most effective pitcher in Oakland's bullpen this season, but his 5.3 BB/9 and 1.76 K/BB rates are alarmingly bad for a reliever.  Please stand back while my head explodes.

Kenley Jansen (not to be confused with Toronto's closer Casey Janssen) excluded
The Dodgers' closer has been downright filthy since supplanting Javy Guerra as the team's ninth-inning man at the end of April.  His stuff is flat-out dominant.  He struck out at least one batter in each of his ten June appearances, and he's already piled up 61 K's in just 38.1 innings--a gaudy 14.3 K/9 rate.  His other stats (2.11 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 4.69 K/BB ratio) are terrific, too and he's been significantly better than most of the closers named to the National League squad; Jonathan Papelbon, Joel Hanrahan, and Huston Street.  Make no mistake, he belongs in the top tier of NL closers with Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel.


Bryan LaHair as NL 1B reserve, not Paul Goldschmidt
The fact that Bryan LaHair, a 30 year-old Quadruple A player who's played like one for the past seven weeks, made the All-Star team as a first baseman is a reflection of how thin the position has become in the NL.  This is what happens when Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder jump ship to play in the American League, and when Ryan Howard spends the entire first half on the Disabled List.  I get it; the current crop of first baseman in the Senior Circuit consists of Joey Votto and a bunch of guys, so there wasn't exactly a clear-cut choice for this spot.  LaHair, filling in for the departed Carlos Pena and holding down the fort until Anthony Rizzo's impending promotion, was a nice story, the longtime minor leaguer who finally gets his chance, comes out of nowhere and tears the cover off the ball.  Through May 15th he owned a Mickey Mantle-in-his-prime .361/.453/.722 triple slash line and had already banged out 19 extra base hits, including ten home runs.  But we all knew that the regression monster would inevitably attack, and when it did it ate him alive.  In the 38 games since LaHair's been less productive than a shortstop in the Deadball Era.  He's batted a measly .222/.283/.350 with just four home runs and an ugly 45/10 K/BB rate.  Chalk it up to another classic case of some replacement level scrub who makes a splash by playing like a stud for a little while, only to come crashing back to earth and remind everyone why he belongs on the pine instead of in the lineup.

Paul Goldschmidt's season has been the polar opposite.  Following a solid two-month debut last season the 24 year-old was the first baseman of the future and seemed to have the starting gig locked up for years to come.  His sluggish start raised doubts about whether or not he was ready for the Show.  Through the same date--May 15th==he was batting just .218/.279/.337 and seemed to be one more oh-for-four from a demotion to the minors.  But then he sprang to life.  Goldschmidt rattled off a 17 game hitting streak and has batted a sizzling .362/.432/.688 with 27 extra base hits (17 doubles!) since then as he tries to carry the sagging Arizona offense on his shoulders.

So let's compare.  Both have appeared in 71 games thus far.

Goldy: 273 PA  35 R  73 H  23 2B  11 HR  37 RBI  8 SB .302/.370/.541  137 OPS+  131 TB 2.1 bWAR
LaHair: 255 PA  32 R  65 H  12 2B 14 HR  30 RBI  1 SB .289/.369/.529 142 OPS+  119 TB  0.8 bWAR

Close, but Goldschmidt's been better and will have the more successful career.  Ten years from now nobody will remember LaHair or the fact that he made the All-Star team in 2012.  Goldschmidt, on the other hand, could be a star.

Other players I felt deserved to make it: Cueto, Jason Kipnis, Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong, James McDonald, Chris Capuano, Jed Lowrie